Fantasy Baseball 2009 Sleepers

Clayton Kershaw – Starting Pitcher (SP) – Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw will turn 21 on the 19th of March, and he’s already been through a couple tumble-cycles in the hype machine. Obviously, big things are expected from Kershaw this year as he’s penciled in the second slot in the Dodgers’ rotation behind Chad Billingsley.

With the recent signing of Randy Wolf (1-year, 5-million) the Dodgers’ rotation is starting to take shape.  Considering Pitchers and Catchers are only a week away from reporting, it’s a safe bet to project the rotation as follows: Billingsley, Wolf, Kershaw, Kuroda, with Schmidt, Vargas and a handful of others fighting for the last spot.

So, for the sake of fantasy owners’ sanity, we’ll assume that Kershaw will have a starting gig throughout the entirety of 2009.

When dealing with young hurlers, you really only have to concern yourself with a few things.

1. A High Strike-out Rate (K%, or K per 9):  If the kid doesn’t strike batters out,  they’re generally not worth the risk.  There are very few exceptions where a players WHIP, and ERA will be useful and draft worthy but it can easily blow up in your face.  Ian Kennedy of the Yankees comes to mind.
2. Control, Control, Control. A kid can have all the stuff in the world, but at some point batters will stop swinging if he cant control at least two of his pitches.
3. Change Speeds / Keep Batters off balance.  Most of the young guys that get thrown into  the hype machine will be tossing at least 94-95 MPH but if he doesn’t have something else — he’ll more than likely end up in a relief role.

Now, lets see what Kershaw brings to the table:

Year	Team	W	L	ERA	IP	ER	HR	BK	SO	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2006	R	2	0	1.95	37	8	0	0	54	13.14	1.22	10.8	0	0.212	0.89	0.357	69.70%	0.69
2007	A	7	5	2.77	97.1	30	5	0	134	12.39	4.62	2.68	0.46	0.208	1.25	0.323	72.70%	2.72
2007	AA	1	2	3.65	24.2	10	4	1	29	10.58	6.2	1.71	1.46	0.196	1.38	0.243	73.90%	5.02
2008	AA	2	3	1.91	61.1	13	0	2	59	8.66	2.79	3.11	0	0.184	0.95	0.255	67.20%	2.21
2008	MLB	5	5	4.26	107.2	51	11	0	100	8.36	4.35	1.92	0.92	0.264	1.5	0.325	75.70%	4.08

Dominant Strike-Out Pitcher: Even though Kershaw’s dirty strike-out per nine numbers took a dip when he came to the bigs, he’s still dominant in the strike-out department.  Expecting anywhere from an 8 to 11 strike-outs per nine is realistic.

Strike-outs aren’t a problem, as Kershaw’s bringing 94-95mph heat to the mound with him.  If Torre lets Kershaw loose, which probably wont happen until at least the All-Star break, watch out.

Control, Control, Control: Statistically speaking, 100 innings pitched isn’t quite enough to go on especially when you consider it was Kershaw’s first major league action.  However, his BB/9 are ’round about where you’d expect a young power pitcher to be. If Kershaw continues pitching at around 8 or 9 K per 9, his walk rate should improve in 2009. If Kershaw starts going all out, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his K-Rate skyrocket to 11ish, and his BB rate bounce up to about 5ish.

Either way, Kershaw is going to be useful.  However, there are going to be some serious rough patches. For the most part Kershaw’s BAD games, were somewhat predictable.

6 ER in 4 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies on August 23.

5 ER in 3 IP agaist the Colorado Rockies in Coors on July 22.

5 ER in 2.1 IP against the Washington Nationals on August 28th. Guh?

It’d be nice to see Kershaw improve on his walk rate, and his minor league stats don’t particularly lean one way or another. In his final season in the Minors, Kershaw cut his walk rate to 2.79 per nine which looked like a good sign.

Change Speeds & Buckle Knees: Kershaw’s got the right stuff and once he learns to control it, he’ll be great. What stands out is his ability to go from 94-95 on average, with about about a 97mph ceiling, and then buckle knees with what is already considered one of the best curve-balls in the game and comes in at about 74-75mph.

Kershaw’s change-up is getting better and while he’s only throwing it 5-6 percent of the time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this jump to about 12 % with a off-season and spring-training under his belt.

Spring-training generally means absolutely nothing, but watch Kershaw.  I’m sure they dont have the lovely PFX data during spring camp, but you can tell the difference between his change and curve pretty easily.

There’s a great article on Clayton Kershaw’s future from the hardballtimes.com that showcases a few things about his arm-angle, release point, and future projections.  The HardBallTimes.com is one of the best reads on the web.

The Verdict: Feed the machine, and throw Kershaw straight to the head of the young-pitchers pack. Lincecum, who was drafted the same year as Kershaw, had the benefit of college to hone his control skills and all of the little things. Keep in mind  that Lincecum is almost 4 years older than Kershaw, and Kershaw might requiring a bit of babying by Torre.

Kershaw’s breakout year could come as soon as 2009, but I’d instead be banking on about 185 IP / 8.5 K per 9 / and a 3.25 BB:9 / which puts Kershaw in pretty elite company. Expect improvement, and as long as he’s pitching in the pitcher-friendly NL West, enjoy the ride.

David Price may garner more hype going into 2009, but Kershaw is probably a slightly safer bet with equal, if not greater, upside.

Photo: wish_nbk flickr

Fantasy Baseball 2009 Sleepers

Brandon Morrow – Starting Pitcher (SP) – Seattle Mariners

The hype-machine has decided to travel back in time and examine the 2006 draft, searching for a terrific pitcher.

Is it 11th  overall selection Max Scherzer? Nope.

Is it 10th overall selection Tim Lincecum? Nope. Keep Going!

Is it Clayton Kershaw, drafted 7th overall? Nope. Further, my friend. Further and Higher.

What about Andrew Miller, Drafted 6th overall? Nope, higher still.

Oh, You must be searching for the 5th overall draft pick. The flame thrower from UC Berkeley, Brandon Morrow.  Yup, that’s it.

Morrow’s name has been plastered all over “Sleepers  for 2009″ sections, in all of the major magazines and websites. I’m guessing this has something to do with his 95.5 MPH fastball

Let’s take a little bit of a look at this flame thrower, and his limited relief statistics so far:

Year	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	SVO	INN	H	R	ER	HR	HBP	BB	SO
2007	SEA	3	4	4.12	60	0	0	0	0	2	63.1	56	29	29	3	1	50	66
2008	SEA	3	4	3.34	45	5	0	0	10	12	64.2	40	26	24	10	0	34	75
Total		6	8	3.73	105	5	0	0	10	14	128.0	96	55	53	13	1	84	141

What Jumps out? Well, his K to BB ratio is not even 2.  This is a problem.

A quick look for pitchers that have a K:BB ratio of 2 and lower, reveals:

1. Jair Jurrgens posted a (1.99 K:BB)
2. Ubaldo Jiminez ( 1.67 K:BB)
3. Mike Pelfrey (1.72 K:BB)
4. Dice-K (1.64)
5. Dana Eveland (1.53)
6. Manny Parra (1.96)
7. Carlos Zambrano (1.81)
8. Ian Snell (1.52)
9. Oliver Perez (1.71)

You get the point.  It’s going to be tough for Morrow to be anywhere near as dominant as experts project unless he can drastically lower his walk rate. His 10.44 strike outs per nine is nice to look at, but as long as its accompanied by a 4.73 BB / 9 rate — he’s in trouble.

Morrow’s ERA Prior to becoming a starter 1.47 ERA over 36.2 IP

Morrow’s ERA  After becoming a starter in September, where he pitched 5 games, 3.34 ERA over 64.2 IP.

This is quite the jump.

Lets look at the projection systems: Bill James has him posting 10.04K:9, and a 5.70 BB:9. CHONE has him at 10.5 K per 9, and 5.05 BB per 9.

Bill James’ maths translate these numbers into 140 Innings Pitched, an 8-8 record, and a 3.84 ERA to go along with a 1.43 WHIP. This is not pretty.

Obviously, with the switch to the Starting Pitcher Role, you’d expect Morrow’s WHIP to rise from his 1.20 in 2007, and 1.14 in 2008.  How far you think it’ll go up, is really up to interpretation.

Morrow’s spent a season working with Pitching God, Mel Stottlemyre.  If there’s anything that’ll change a flame-throwing kid for the positive, it’s Mel.

Now, with that said.  There’s a few questions you should ask yourself before drafting Brandon Morrow.

1. Do you think he’ll pitch the entire year? 140 IP seems reasonable, 200 Seems possible.
2. If he does pitch the entire year, what are the odds he fatigues and sucks it up around the end of the season.  If you have an active league where you can trade Brandon Morrow after the All-Star break — then there’s a good amount of value here.  If you’re in a league where no one trades because everyone always needs to get the best of the trade — buyer beware.
3. Will he add a pitch? Right now Morrow is sitting on a blistering fastball, a good slider, and a splitter that tends to mimmick the slider pretty closely.  He has nothing that’ll tail from lefties.  If Morrow can get his change working, or pick up a decent curve he’ll be set.  Right Now, I tend to think he’s better served in a late rotation or bullpen role.

All and All, just keep an eye on Morrow.  If he’s looking good, and reports are good  — then he’s worth the risk with a K:9 above 10.

The Verdict: The Machine likes flame-throwers but it can find plenty of them floating around. Don’t overpay for Morrow based on the appearance of a pitcher with a sub-1.20 WHIP.  Understand you’re getting a High-K, High-BB guy with the potential of experiencing dead arm syndrome.  You’re getting more Ubaldo Jiminez (not a bad thing) than Joba Chamberlain.

Photo Courtesy of MarkSobba Flickr