Evan Longoria

About Evan Longoria: Selling High and Throwing Strikes.

Evan Longoria is currently destroying Major League pitching and justifying his second round draft selection to the tune of .358 AVG/.408 OBP/.706 SLG. Longoria’s already knocked out eight home-runs and is the league leader in runs batted in with 35.

Longoria’s proving me quite wrong, considering I claimed he was nowhere near worthy of a second round draft selection. I have little doubt in my mind that Evan Longoria will be a perennial all-star selection, but I didn’t think he’d achieve MVP-type numbers quite this soon.

However, I wouldn’t be too quick to peg Evan Longoria as first round value quite yet, and I still tend believe he finishes somewhere in the late-20’s when all is said and done.

The Evan Longoria Question is, Why Are Pitchers Still Throwing Him Strikes?

Carlos Pena, the league leader in home runs, bats behind him is the simple answer but stay with me for a second.

Longoria’s has always had passable plate discipline given his power. In his first full season, Longoria whiffed 27% of the time compared to walking 9% of the time. Pitchers continued to pound the zone at a league average clip against Longoria, largely due to his below league average contact-rate.

Organized by slugging percentage, here’s a quick look at the league leaders thus far (stats are as of Thursday May 7th, when I started this Article):

				SWING %			Contact %
Name	BB%	K%	BB/K	SLG	Out	Zone	Total	Out	Zone	Total	Zone%
Albert Pujols	16.1%	9.1%	2.11	0.747	21.9%	73.5%	43.7%	85.2%	91.7%	89.8%	42.3%
Kevin Youkilis	15.2%	20.2%	0.89	0.719	17.1%	62.1%	38.5%	61.5%	88.3%	82.0%	47.5%
Evan Longoria	7.6%	23.9%	0.35	0.706	29.4%	68.4%	49.3%	53.1%	78.2%	70.9%	51.1%
Raul Ibanez	10.1%	17.3%	0.65	0.694	21.1%	59.9%	39.9%	51.2%	89.0%	78.7%	48.4%
Jorge Cantu	9.2%	14.6%	0.69	0.685	31.1%	67.4%	46.2%	67.2%	89.9%	81.0%	41.6%
Carlos Pena	13.9%	33.3%	0.49	0.676	18.2%	71.6%	43.9%	53.3%	74.4%	69.9%	48.1%
Russell Branyan	8.9%	25.6%	0.38	0.659	32.5%	73.8%	50.4%	52.4%	86.4%	74.0%	43.4%
Miguel Cabrera	11.1%	14.6%	0.86	0.656	29.0%	73.1%	50.0%	60.4%	90.2%	81.1%	47.7%
Victor Martinez	12.4%	8.0%	1.78	0.655	19.1%	58.6%	38.4%	78.4%	92.0%	88.6%	49.0%
Torii Hunter	9.5%	13.7%	0.77	0.653	30.2%	73.5%	49.6%	66.7%	91.6%	83.2%	44.9%
Ian Kinsler	7.2%	19.0%	0.41	0.647	26.8%	75.7%	50.0%	67.7%	87.9%	82.2%	47.5%
Chase Utley	17.3%	13.6%	1.55	0.642	17.7%	55.3%	35.3%	58.3%	89.0%	80.9%	47.0%
Manny Ramirez	22.0%	18.5%	1.53	0.641	16.9%	68.8%	40.5%	75.6%	86.3%	83.9%	45.5%
Nick Swisher	17.3%	27.9%	0.75	0.64	17.1%	53.5%	34.2%	66.7%	79.6%	76.2%	47.0%
Jason Bay	23.7%	27.8%	1.12	0.622	13.7%	60.2%	35.0%	44.4%	82.7%	74.6%	45.8%
Adam Jones	8.8%	18.4%	0.53	0.621	27.8%	69.2%	48.6%	51.7%	83.6%	74.5%	50.2%
Brandon Inge	14.7%	24.1%	0.71	0.609	19.6%	57.8%	37.8%	58.1%	80.0%	74.1%	47.6%
Adrian Gonzalez	14.3%	28.4%	0.59	0.608	26.6%	77.2%	50.7%	52.4%	78.9%	71.6%	47.6%
Michael Young	6.6%	19.3%	0.36	0.605	26.4%	70.0%	48.1%	51.8%	85.7%	76.4%	49.8%
Mike Cameron	14.4%	18.9%	0.89	0.6	11.2%	65.0%	39.8%	70.0%	87.1%	84.9%	53.1%
Nick Markakis	13.0%	13.1%	1.14	0.598	21.9%	60.1%	40.0%	75.9%	89.5%	85.6%	47.3%
Adam Lind	12.1%	19.8%	0.7	0.586	25.7%	59.8%	41.1%	69.3%	90.2%	83.0%	45.0%
Jorge Posada	13.5%	24.7%	0.63	0.584	20.2%	61.9%	40.2%	57.1%	90.9%	82.1%	48.1%
Carlos Beltran	15.5%	18.4%	1	0.582	20.9%	69.1%	43.0%	79.1%	91.7%	88.4%	45.9%
Brad Hawpe	14.0%	14.9%	1.09	0.581	20.8%	66.1%	42.4%	57.5%	85.2%	78.1%	47.5%
Ryan Zimmerman	8.3%	19.8%	0.45	0.568	26.4%	60.7%	43.0%	77.8%	84.6%	82.4%	48.4%
Aaron Hill	6.9%	14.9%	0.5	0.567	29.1%	69.4%	49.6%	63.2%	91.1%	83.1%	50.8%
Ryan Ludwick	6.1%	16.3%	0.4	0.565	29.7%	73.1%	51.6%	62.8%	87.5%	80.5%	50.4%
Alberto Callaspo	9.8%	5.4%	2	0.565	24.4%	73.3%	47.1%	84.2%	97.0%	93.4%	46.4%
Mike Lowell	3.5%	12.7%	0.29	0.564	26.1%	58.2%	43.1%	83.3%	93.4%	90.5%	53.1%
Nelson Cruz	8.2%	22.8%	0.39	0.564	19.5%	73.0%	44.6%	45.2%	78.3%	70.6%	46.8%
Joey Votto	13.8%	21.0%	0.76	0.56	22.6%	74.8%	47.0%	67.9%	83.4%	79.5%	46.8%
Andre Ethier	16.1%	15.4%	1.25	0.558	24.5%	67.4%	44.7%	72.3%	93.1%	87.1%	47.1%
Adam Dunn	22.8%	28.4%	1.04	0.557	16.7%	60.5%	36.1%	62.2%	77.7%	73.7%	44.3%
Ryan Braun	13.4%	22.7%	0.68	0.557	27.4%	59.9%	42.6%	63.9%	88.1%	79.9%	46.9%
Justin Upton	10.0%	25.9%	0.43	0.556	28.8%	64.1%	43.8%	45.5%	79.1%	66.4%	42.6%
Justin Morneau	6.0%	17.3%	0.37	0.555	37.7%	72.3%	52.4%	55.6%	93.0%	77.6%	42.5%
Jason Kubel	5.2%	15.2%	0.36	0.554	26.2%	73.7%	49.4%	60.5%	93.0%	84.2%	48.8%
Freddy Sanchez	3.4%	17.0%	0.21	0.554	30.2%	67.7%	51.0%	65.0%	90.5%	83.8%	55.5%
Jermaine Dye	6.3%	29.2%	0.23	0.551	25.3%	67.6%	45.5%	60.0%	86.2%	78.6%	47.9%
Mark Reynolds	9.3%	33.0%	0.31	0.546	19.8%	66.0%	42.8%	37.5%	72.7%	64.5%	49.8%
Hank Blalock	3.0%	15.3%	0.2	0.541	28.9%	70.0%	49.7%	56.3%	87.4%	78.4%	50.6%
Orlando Hudson	12.7%	10.3%	1.42	0.538	15.9%	66.4%	40.4%	55.3%	91.3%	84.0%	48.6%
Bengie Molina	0.0%	12.6%	0	0.537	53.6%	81.2%	65.7%	67.5%	90.9%	80.2%	44.0%
Jay Bruce	10.9%	22.2%	0.55	0.533	25.9%	75.3%	49.1%	51.9%	86.6%	76.9%	47.0%
Johnny Damon	11.5%	14.0%	0.93	0.53	21.1%	64.2%	42.2%	77.3%	90.7%	87.3%	49.0%
Shane Victorino	6.9%	9.3%	0.8	0.528	29.9%	63.0%	46.3%	72.7%	93.9%	87.0%	49.6%
Curtis Granderson	9.2%	21.3%	0.48	0.528	20.9%	59.2%	40.2%	60.4%	86.2%	79.6%	50.3%
Kosuke Fukudome	19.2%	18.8%	1.27	0.525	10.7%	54.2%	31.1%	52.2%	90.3%	83.3%	46.9%
Elijah Dukes	11.6%	27.4%	0.48	0.524	23.7%	76.0%	46.0%	42.9%	82.1%	70.5%	42.7%
Alfonso Soriano	9.0%	27.9%	0.35	0.523	35.4%	72.0%	51.5%	44.7%	89.7%	72.4%	44.1%
Chris Duncan	14.6%	20.5%	0.83	0.523	18.8%	66.1%	40.2%	28.2%	93.8%	77.0%	45.2%
Robinson Cano	5.8%	9.6%	0.64	0.518	30.6%	70.1%	49.8%	82.5%	96.3%	92.0%	48.5%
Todd Helton	10.1%	15.7%	0.71	0.517	22.3%	70.4%	45.7%	81.3%	89.5%	87.4%	48.6%
Carlos Quentin	9.5%	12.6%	0.83	0.516	27.0%	81.9%	52.8%	66.7%	90.3%	83.9%	47.0%
Rod Barajas	5.6%	11.9%	0.5	0.512	26.3%	74.7%	51.9%	67.5%	92.1%	86.2%	52.8%
Carlos Lee	7.3%	8.8%	0.89	0.51	23.8%	74.0%	49.3%	68.2%	95.1%	88.7%	50.9%
Ryan Howard	11.6%	29.3%	0.45	0.505	31.6%	81.7%	52.1%	44.2%	81.2%	67.9%	40.9%
Mike Jacobs	9.9%	29.7%	0.37	0.505	26.5%	65.9%	44.2%	54.2%	85.0%	74.9%	44.9%

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I understand that this is a lot to digest, but it gives a much clearer picture of Longoria as a hitter. I’ve bolded the statistics that fall noticeably below the league average in any given category (B/KK, Swing Percentage Outside the Zone, Swing Percentages Inside the Zone, Contact Outside the Zone, Contact Inside the Zone, and Zone Percentage [or percent of pitches inside the zone.])

Onto the Question: Why’s Longoria Getting So Many Pitches to Hit?

Of the elite hitters on this list, you’ve got to go all the way down to Adam Jones and Mike Cameron to find the other hot-hitting players that are seeing more pitches inside, rather than outside, of the zone. This obviously has quite a bit to do with line-up protection and for the most part it’s still pick your poison (Jones or Markakis, Braun or Cameron). If these players continue their hot hitting ways, you’d expect them to see less pitches inside the zone even if they’re protected by some of the most elite hitters in the game.

Longoria’s plate discipline statistics do not predict a dominant hitter. Longoria’s stats actually resemble a Russell Branyan-type hitter at this point. Their stats are eerily similar:

Name	BB%	K%	BB/K	SLG	Out	Zone	Total	Out	Zone	Total	Zone%
Russell Branyan	8.9%	25.6%	0.38	0.659	32.5%	73.8%	50.4%	52.4%	86.4%	74.0%	43.4%
Evan Longoria	7.6%	23.9%	0.35	0.706	29.4%	68.4%	49.3%	53.1%	78.2%	70.9%	51.1%

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Branyan chases a few more pitches, but he also makes more contact. The only real difference here is that Longoria’s seeing 7% more pitches inside the strike-zone. Comparing Russell Branyan and Evan Longoria is terrifying, so I’ll never do it again, but how does Longoria react when pitchers start throwing him more borderline strikes?

Longoria’s plate discipline statistics may be skewed because he’s seeing the ball so well, and making damn-hard contact so often — but I’m still concerned.

Other players like Adam Jones, Ryan Ludwick, Nelson Cruz, Justin Upton and Mark Reynolds fall into the trap of walking too little, swinging too much, and making poor contact on those swings. It’s obviously been working for them just as well as it has been for Longoria, but they’re all young players who are still getting a large percentage of pitches inside the zone.

If Longoria keeps up his sweet swinging ways, pitchers are going to have to start respecting him or challenging him. Carlos Pena continues to be among the league leaders in Home Runs, but at some point pitchers are going to have to risk walking Longoria in order to test his plate discipline. It’s a tricky situation as the Rays’ line-up has been terrific thus far and Upton still hasn’t even come close to hitting his stride.

Opposing pitchers will eventually catch onto Longoria’s lack of plate discipline, and it’ll be up to Longoria to adapt. I’m not predicting the end of the Longoria-Era by any stretch of the imagination. Ryan Howard has obviously shown that a player can still be successful only getting 40% of their pitches inside of the zone.

Keep in mind, we’re really only working off 30 games worth of 2009 statistics so there’s going to be a small sample size warning. With Longoria, it’s quite clear why almost everything is prefaced with a small sample size caveat — Check out the pitchers that he’s faced thus far:

vs. Baltimore Orioles
	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GIDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Danys Báez	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brian Bass	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	2	2.5
Adam Eaton	6	3	1	0	1	2	0	2	1	0	0	0.5	0.5	1.167	1.667
Jeremy Guthrie	3	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.667	1	1.667
Mark Hendrickson	3	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.333	1.333	1.667
Jim Johnson	1	1	0	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	5
Bob McCrory	1	1	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2
Koji Uehara	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	2	0	0	0	0.333	0.333	0.667	1
Jamie Walker	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
vs. Boston Red Sox
	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GIDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Josh Beckett	6	1	1	0	0	3	0	1	0	0	0	0.167	0.167	0.333	0.5
Manny Delcarmen	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.667	0.5	1.167
Hunter Jones	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	4	5
Jon Lester	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0.333	0.333	0.667	1
Javier López	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	0.5	1
Justin Masterson	4	2	0	0	1	6	0	1	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	1.25	1.75
Daisuke Matsuzaka	3	3	1	0	1	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	2.333	3.333
Hideki Okajima	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brad Penny	3	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.333	0	0.333
Ramón Ramírez	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Takashi Saito	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	2	2.5
Tim Wakefield	3	2	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.667	1	1.667
vs. Chicago White Sox
	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GIDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Mark Buehrle	3	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.667	0.667	1.333
D.J. Carrasco	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bartolo Colón	3	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.333	0.333	0.667	1
Octavio Dotel	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Gavin Floyd	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0
Clayton Richard	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
vs. Minnesota Twins
	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GIDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Luis Ayala	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Scott Baker	3	2	1	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.667	0.667	1	1.667
Nick Blackburn	4	1	0	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.25	0.25	0.25	0.5
R.A. Dickey	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Francisco Liriano	3	1	1	0	0	1	0	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.333	0.667	1
José Mijares	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
vs. New York Yankees
	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GIDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Jonathan Albaladejo	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Brian Bruney	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
A.J. Burnett	6	2	1	0	0	1	0	2	1	0	0	0.333	0.333	0.5	0.833
Andy Pettitte	3	1	0	0	1	2	0	1	0	0	1	0.333	0.333	1.333	1.667
Edwar Ramírez	2	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	0.5	1
Mariano Rivera	2	1	0	0	1	1	0	1	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	2	2.5
José Veras	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2
Chien-Ming Wang	1	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.5	0	0.5
vs. Oakland Athletics
	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GIDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
Dallas Braden	2	1	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.667	0.5	1.167
Trevor Cahill	2	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.5	1	1.5
Dana Eveland	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	1	0	0.333	0	0.333
Dan Giese	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0.5	0	0.5
Russ Springer	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Michael Wuertz	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
vs. Seattle Mariners
	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	K	SB	CS	GIDP	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
David Aardsma	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Miguel Batista	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0
Roy Corcoran	1	1	0	0	0	1	0	0	0	0	0	1	1	1	2
Félix Hernández	3	0	0	0	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Chris Jakubauskas	2	2	1	0	0	2	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.667	1.5	2.167
Mark Lowe	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Jarrod Washburn	2	1	1	0	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0.5	0.667	1	1.667

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This isn’t exactly murderers row, but you’ve got to give credit to Longoria for killing the pitchers that he should be killing. He hasn’t had much luck against solid pitchers, and has thus far managed to run into the tougher pitchers are opportune times. Catching the Yankees and the Red Sox early in the season when their pitching is a mess has helped Longoria and all of the Rays. A large portion of Longoria’s counting stats have come off none other than the Baltimore Orioles — it’ll be fun to watch him take on some of the stronger rotations.

To me, Longoria’s the epitome of a sell-high candidate. If you can get first round talent for him, I’m pulling the trigger pronto.

Evan Longoria

Dear John Letters…

I’ve been on a posting spree, as my better half has left me alone with the television and computer. This has resulted in me watching 3 baseball games (TOR v. CLE, BOS. v. LAA, NYY v. KCR), a UFC fight (St. Pierre vs. Penn II), and now Spike’s new television-awesome: Deadliest Warrior! Currently a GLADIATOR is being pitted against an APACHE WARRIOR.

Onto DEAR JOHN Letters,

Dear David Ortiz,

Remember the hole you had in your swing as a Twin? It’s back. You can’t get around like you used to, and quite frankly I’m sick of waiting around for you.  Even if you do get healthy, you’re more of a .930-.950 OPS guy now.  Maybe someone else thinks you can top 1.000, but not me.

Dear Evan Longoria,

I realize you’re young, and the best is yet to come, but I’ve got to say goodbye.  The 4 HR are nice, really, but I’m not buying your 44% HR:FB ratio.  I’m still pretty concerned about that K-Rate, too.  Maybe by the time this letter gets to you, I’ll have rethought my position.  You’re nice, but not second-round nice. x0×0x0x.

Dear Vladmir Guerrero,

Swinging at everything was cute when you were young, but I’m noticing a whole lotta grey in that beard of yours.  Like Ortiz, you’ll be useful but you’ll miss too many games to warrant your ADP.

Dear Alexei Ramirez,

Who do you think you are, Vladmir Guerrero?  Swinging at everything isn’t nearly as cute when you do it.  Baseball’s not all that easy when pitchers get the book on you, now is it?  You’ll adjust, and I’ll be sure to snap you up once your value’s hit rock bottom. Even with the small sample size, you’re 31.4 ZONE% is pretty concerning.

Dear Chris Davis,

I spent all Winter telling you that you struck out too much, and I’ve had enough.  Don’t you listen? You’ll never amount to anything if you keep up these bad habits.  All women love projects though, we like to think we can take a bad boy and turn him into a good boy. I’ll be giving you a call back once your trade-value dips low enough.

Dear Austin Kearns,

You’re half the man Elijah Dukes is, but you’re persistent as hell.  I’m sorry I have to do this, but at least your best quality is your arm — go put it to use.

Dear Justin Upton,

You’re hung like a horse, but you really need to learn how to use it. I feel violated.  I gotcha number on da speed dial though.

Dear Mark DeRosa,

Last year was great, and I love your friends in Cleveland this year, but 33-year-olds get worse with age, not better.  Sorry.

Dear Gladiator,

You lost to the Apache Warrior. I’m very dissappointed.

Evan Longoria

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Third Basemen

No Pedro Alvarez, Josh Vitters or Mike Moustakas in the Yahoo or ESPN Player Pool, looks like you’ll have to wait another year. There are plenty of solid keeper options at third base though, especially of the young and unproven variety.

Whether or not they’ll stick at third base, is a whole different ballgame however.  Currently Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Russell Martin, Mark DeRosa, Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez, Hank Blalock, Chase Headley and Jed Lowrie have third base eligibility in Yahoo Leagues, but they haven’t been included because I either don’t think they’ll stick or they’ll provide greater vlaue elsewhere.

Banking on Miguel Cabrera logging 15 Games at 3rd for the next 10 years is a bit iffy, and if you’re drafting Russell Martin — You’re playing him at catcher. A-Rod’s probably got a couple years at DH in him as well, which would warrant him a higher overall than positional rank.  He scoots ahead of Longoria in the overall ranks.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. David Wright – NY Mets – 26 - I thought he had another year to wait, but with Rodriguez’s injury, Wright’s the best third base option, and should continue stealing 15+ bases for the next 4 years.

2. Evan Longoria – TB Rays – 23 - Longoria’s a talent, but I’d expect somewhat of a sophomore slump this year. Blasphemy, I know. In the long run, he should provide you with 10 years of top-3 third basemen play.  A few more SB would be nice.

3. Alex Rodriguez – NY Yankees – 33 - Loses a few months to injury, but he’ll play well into his late 30’s. I’ll take 4 years of first-round talent over 8 years of 5th round talent, any day.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – WAS Nationals – 24 - It’s a tough choice between Zimmerman and Gordon. Gordon ends up being the better player, but Washington surrounds Zimmerman with more talent.

5. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 - Re-upped with Boston, and should produce at a high level for at least 5 more years.  There’s the possibility that Youkilis gets moved back to third to make room for Lars Anderson.

6. Alex Gordon – KC Royals – 25 - If Gordon wants to cash in on all that talent and become a superstar, 2009’s the year.  KC’s putting together a squad that can mash, and they’ll at least be fun to watch.

7. Edwin Encarnacion – CIN Reds – 26 – 2009 is the year Encarnacionn puts it together. I dont think he has the talent of a Zimmerman or Gordon, but the ballpark’s definitely in his favour.  I’d have no problem ranking Edwin above both Zimmerman and Gordon.

8. Aramis Ramirez – CHI Cubs – 30 - Same boat as Youkilis.

9. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 - I haven’t the slightest clue where Sandoval plays out his career, but his versatility can’t hurt.  There’s a good amount of risk associated with Sandoval, and I think you’ll probably have to overpay to get him in any keeper league.

10. Mark Reynolds – ARI Diamondbacks – 25 - Lots of power, not much average.  You’re getting what you pay for.

11. Chipper Jones – ATL Braves – 36 - Where to put Chipper? He can’t stay healthy, and he’s getting old.  He did post his best batting average ever as a 35 year old.  You’ve probably got two years of top-5 third basemen, and 1 year old top-10.  Adjust your rankings based on the depth of your league.

12. Garrett Atkins – COL Rockies – 29 - If Atkins stays in Colorado, he’s probably two spots higher.  Unfortunately, I can’t see him sticking around the mile-high city. Best case scenario: Atkins plays the year out at 3rd base, and eventually gets moved to first base — but he gets to stay in Colorado.  Worst Case: Atkins gets traded to a not-so-hitter-friendly park.

13. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - His next five years could be 30HR, 25HR, 8HR, 17HR, 32HR.  It’s really two bad that he was such a terrible second basemen.  The Marlins are stacked with young talent, so he should continue to put up R & RBI numbers.  There’s also the chance that Florida cleans house again.

14. Adrian Beltre – SEA Mariners – 29 - I can’t believe he’s only 29. He’s been underachieving for almost 10 years now!  Taking a peek at Beltre’s numbers is quite enjoyable. In a purely baseball sense, a sense that takes into account his stellar defense, the Mariners really didn’t waste that massive wad of cash-money signing Beltre.  Now, if only someone could get on base for him.

15. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Who knows what he develops into. He’s ceilings probably 7th or 8th, and his basement is about Joe Crede.

16. Aubrey Huff – BAL Orioles – 32 – Eligibility is going to be a problem going forth.

17. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 – Same boat as Stewart.  Wood’s massive power potential at the shortstop position is worth the risk, but at the third base position 30 HR isn’t all that uncommon.

18. Mat Gamel – MIL Brewers – 23 – His defense is getting better, and he’s almost a below average third baseman.  I don’t know if he’ll stick at third, but he’s got a whoooole lotta potential.

19. Josh Fields – CHI White Sox – 26 – This could be Gamel four years from now.  Fields has got a boatload of potential, and I’d be taking a chance on him.  All of the reports out of Spring Training are encouraging.

20. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 – I probably screwed up this Figgins ranking, but it’s impossible to judge atypical performers in keeper leagues.  In a keeper league, you can’t really gameplan around Figgins by drafting a power-hitting MI to offset Figgins’ lack of power from a typical HR-hitting position. You just want to put together the best team without getting too cute.  With Figgins’ injury history, and almost all of his value coming from speed — I’d  avoid him as my third baseman.

21. Brett Wallace – STL Cardinals – 22 – Ooooh, Ahhhh! Baseball America has him only six spots lower than the mucho-hyped-upped-o, Mat Gamel.  Wallace comes in at the 40th best prospect, and a whole lotta power potential.  Glaus is getting old, and who knows how long Freese can hold Wallace off.  Well worth the risk at this point.

22. Kevin Kouzmanoff – SD Padres – 27 - I have an unhealthy hatred for San Diego third basemen.  I think it’s because I sat on Sean Burroughs for so long. Anyways, here’s a tidbit about Burroughs: After winning the league little world series, a team coached by his father and 1974 AL MVP, Jeff Burroughs; Sean was invited onto David Letterman.  When asked what his dream job was, instead of coming up with the obvious answer of:  “follow in my dad’s footsteps and become a ball player,” Burroughs told Letterman he wanted to be a gynecologist. Kids say the darndest things.  Anyways, I do not want the Kouz on my team.

23. Troy Glaus – STL Cardinals – 32 - Still has a few good years left in him, 2009 isn’t one of those years. He’s got Wallace breathing down his neck, too.

24. Carlos Guillen – DET Tigers – 33 – Detroit will find a spot for Guillen to play, and Guillen should produce for a couple more years.

25. Andy LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 25 - Now that he’s with his brother, and hopefully relaxed — LaRoche is probably a very profitable risk to take heading into 2009.

26. Joe Crede – MIN Twins – 30 – Signed a one-year deal with the Twins.

27. Dayan Viciedo – CHI White Sox – 20 – Cuba, Cuba.  Should be solid, if/when Josh Fields fails.  Even if Fields succeeds, Viciedo will probably snag a spot in the outfield.  At the very least, keep an eye on him.

28. Melvin Mora – BAL Orioles – 37 – I couldn’t believe that Mora was 37 Years old.  Maybe 1 or 2 seasons of 90+ RBI left in ‘em.

29. Bill Hall – MIL Brewers – 29 - Bill Hall should be in his prime, he’s not.  He’s having trouble making contact, let alone smash-killing.  With Gamel breathing down his neck, maybe this year’s the year.

30. Matt Tuiasosopo – SEA Mariners – Solid youngster, you might have to wait a couple years.  I dont see him being anything special though.

31. Mike Lowell – BOS Red Sox – 35

32. Wilson Betemit – CHI White Sox – 27

33. Ty Wigginton – BAL Orioles – 31

34. Jose Bautista – TOR Jays – 28

35. Jeff Keppinger – HOU Astros – 28

36. Brian Buscher – MIN Twins – 27

37. Conor Gillaspie – SF Giants – 21 – I think Gillaspie flops.  Maybe you want to move him above Tuiasosopo, but I dont.

38. Russell Branyan – SEA Mariners – 33

38. Jack Hannahan – OAK Athletics – 29

39. Eric Chavez – OAK Athletics – 31

40. Casey Blake – LA Dodgers – 35

41. Scott Rolen – TOR Blue Jays – 33

Unfortunately, I’m sick as a dog, and the regular season is only a few days ago — So if these seemed rushed, they are.

Evan Longoria

Upper Deck Spectrum: How To Play With Fire, and Hopefully Not Get Burnt

This is the most expensive product I’ve reviewed so far, and boy is it shiny.  I wouldn’t open a box of these around the Organ Grinder and his monkey.

As the Organ Grinder would play his little barrel organ around the turn of the century, his little monkey would scour the crowd and surrounding sidewalk for cash-money.

Occasionally, the monkey would get distracted by other shiny things and perform the first victim-less crime — theft of shiny things by a trained monkey.

This is why instead of paying the $115 CDN for a box of spectrum which contains 14 packs of 5 cards, you should spend about $50 on an illegally imported monkey, $20 on a hat, and the remaining 45-dollars using negative reinforcement to train the monkey.  In addition to your 70 cards, you’ll have enough empirical data to get published in the Journal of  Anthropological Research.  Seems like a win-win to me, a noted monkey expert.

So you’ve stolen your box of 2009 Edition Upper Deck Spectrum, what should you expect? Upper Deck says:

Content Highlights

• Two Autograph cards per box, one of which will be a Spectrum of Stars celebrity autograph card, on average!
• 20th Anniversary Memorabilia cards one (1) per hobby case, on average!
• One memorabilia card per box, on average!
• Two autographed cards per box, on average!
• Press Plates, one per case on average!
• 20th Anniversary cards randomly inserted!
• Look for three (3) random Hot Boxes in each hobby case containing three (3) memorabilia cards and three (3) autographed cards!
• Look for celebrity cut-signature cards!
• One (1) autographed buyback card per case, on average!

20th Anniversary Memorabilia:

• 2009 Spectrum will be the first project in baseball to include 20th Anniversary Memorabilia cards!  Look for memorabilia cards of the most elite athletes across all four sports such as Michael Jordan, Sidney Crosby, Wayne Gretzky, Peyton Manning, and the greatest golfer in the world, Tiger Woods!

Product Breakdown

Regular Cards and Rookies

• 100 Regular Cards
• 30 Spectrum Rookie Signatures

Inserts and Parallel Cards

• Red Base set Parallel (#’ed to 399)
• Orange Base set Parallel (#’ed to 299)
• Green Base set Parallel (#’ed to 99)
• Black Base set Parallel (#’ed to 50)
• Gold Base set Parallel (#’ed to 25)

Autograph Cards (2 per box, on average)

• Spectrum Rookie Signatures
• Spectrum of  Stars Autographs
• Spectrum of Star Die-Cut Autographs (#’ed up to 50)
• Spectrum of Swatches Dark Gray Autographs (#’ed up to 99)

The Base Card is pretty much what you’d expect out of a premium brand card.  It’s sleek and modern, and it appears as though Upper Deck has trained monkeys of it’s own clipping away the background from their photos.

Nothing is more upsetting than purchasing a premium baseball card and realizing that there are artifacts from the background stuck to the side of the player, or an overly feathered edge (Dear Donruss, take note).  If you’re paying what amounts to about a dollar per card, the player should have crisp and clean edges.

Speaking of which, if you’re paying one-hundred and fifteen dollars for a box of Upper Deck spectrum; You better pray to the Sweet Baby Jesus that you don’t pull “Rocket Man” from High School Musical 3. Matt Proko currently cannot be given away on eBay, as people are shying away from the minimum 99 cent bid.  Aren’t you glad you dropped 115 bucks on this sucker?

At this point, I’d normally go into the photography and general composition of the card.  Unfortunately, these cards are just players on different color backgrounds.  Obviously, you’re going to want to pull a Gold Spectrum numbered to 25, even if it’s ugly as hell.

The base-card is probably the most appealing to the eye, at least in my not-so-humble opinion, although I’m quite a fan of the black parallel.

I’m not bothered by both Erik Bedard nor Xadier Nady wearing the uniforms of their previous teams, not at all.  While I understand sarcasm doesn’t really come across on the internet, this my friend is ridiculous.

Bedard was signed, not last year but the year before! I know he was a whole-lotta hurt last year for the Mariners, but this is getting ridiculous.  Nady was a trade-deadline guy, and played more than a handful of games in the Media capital of the world.

If you don’t have a half decent shot of the guys, please for the love of god don’t put it in. The kicker is, Upper Deck was able to get a Game Worn Jersey from Erik Bedard as a Mariner but was unable to find a photo of him.

Okay, It’s Time For The Hits

This is where I think Upper Deck is seriously playing with fire.  I have a firm view on Die-Cut autographs, and that view is simple: they’re awesome.

However, Upper Deck apparently realized that people will pay an inordinate amount of money for Cut autographs and started putting out cut-autos of every imaginable person.

Here is the reasoning behind a cut auto: The autograph comes from a person who has died, or has at least lost both of their arms in a terrible wood-chipping accident.  Either way, the point is the person can no longer sign an autograph. So you root around his or her personal shit until you find a bounced check, or something.  Bam! Cut it out, throw it in a card.

This is what gives them value, not that they’re cut out, but that the person is no longer around to sign any more autographs.

If the person is living, then you’re just saturating the market.

While I love how Jennifer Connelly manages to show off her god-given talent for getting naked in every movie she’s ever been in; Do we really need a cut-auto?

Angie Dickinson is 77 years old, but she isn’t quite to the point where she needs a cut-auto.

Yup, you’re correct in guessing this is indeed a Paris Hilton die-cut Spectrum Celebrity Signature from their 2008-series run.

It’s numbered 7 of 8, and is currently listed for an outrageous 500 dollars on eBay.

These cut-autos hold their value, and if you’re lucky enough to pull one, you’ve just paid for 4 or 5 boxes.

I still don’t get it though, considering most of these celebrities will sign an 8×10 if you stick it in front of them. I’m sure you can snag a PSA/DNA certified autograph of any one of these living celebrity stars for far cheaper than their cut-cards.

Hrm…

Game Used and Auto

Here we have your basic swatch, plate and celebrity auto.  Lots of Letter-Swatches, and everyone likes letter swatches.  If you’re a collector of GU, you’re probably a bit more excited about the 3-color thing, than I am.

Printing plates are my thing however, and these look like some of the better ones I’ve seen.  While the cards aren’t mind blowing, the printing plates are.  They almost have a little modern-day Allen and Ginter to ‘em.  Very simple, and a tiny little logo.

The Celebrity Autos vary quite a bit.  You could end up with any number of 80’s hair metal bands, or someone like Al Bundy ( Ed O’Neil).  I’m not sure how Cheech Marin resonates with the younger collector, but Up In Smoke which debuted in ‘78, is probably the driving force behind sales of his auto.

It’s pretty clear to see who Upper Deck’s target audience is with it’s premium Spectrum product. With 80’s icons like Cheech and Chong, Al Bundy, Bert Reynolds, Brutus “The Barber” Beefcake and Sarah Conor we’re thinking that their ideal collector is in his late-20’s / early-30’s.

Throw in some autographs of 22-year old talking breasts (Kim Kardashian/ Susie Feldmen / Kendra Wilkinson) and I’m starting to think that Upper Deck understands how important large breasts are to the average collector.

Upper Deck Rookie Spectrum Signatures

2009	101	David Price	Rays	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	102	Conor Gillaspie	Giants	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	103	Jeff Baisley	Athletics	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	104	Angel Salome	Brewers	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	105	Aaron Cunningham	Athletics	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	106	Lou Marson	Phillies	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	107	Matt Antonelli	Padres	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	108	Michael Bowden	Red Sox	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	109	Francisco Cervelli	Yankees	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	110	Phil Coke	Yankees	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	111	Josh Outman	Athletics	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	112	Shairon Martis	Nationals	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	113	Mat Gamel	Brewers	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	114	Josh Geer	Padres	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	115	Greg Golson	Phillies	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	116	Kila Ka’aihue	Royals	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	117	Wade LeBlanc	Padres	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	118	Chris Lambert	Tigers	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	119	James Parr	Braves	Spectrum Rookie Signatures
2009	120	Matt Tuiasosopo	Mariners	Spectrum Rookie Signatures

The Rookie class this year seems pretty solid, and everyone will be lusting for that David Price auto.  I’m also a fan of the Gamel, Salome, Cillaspie, Ka’aihue, and Cunningham this year. Actually, I’m happy with all of the autographs this year.  The cards themselves look solid, but there’s nothing particularly ground-breaking-new-omfg about them.

Buybacks: I’m not the biggest fan of buybacks unless they’re incredibly expensive on the eBay.  Are you excited when you pull a Rick Ankiel autographed SPx? They’re on eBay from 15 to 40 bucks.  If I get a buyback, I want the potential for a card that I can’t purchase on eBay on a modern budget.

The Full Upper Deck Spectrum Checklist is available here.

Conclusion

This is a premium product, and while it’s not quite a “Sterling” product, it’s still a neat set.  It falls nicely somewhere between Upper Deck Series 1, and the big-boys of Premium trading cards.

The celebrity autographs and cut autos are neat, but  you are paying for them.  They’re probably constituting a third of the purchase price, so as long as you understand that you’re paying about 70 bucks for a baseball set, and 45 bucks on a celebrity set — this is a nice set.

With the Spectrum product, it’s pretty much a requirement to buy a box rather than loose packs.  Spending 12 dollars on a loose pack that’s undoubtedly been searched, is risky business.

I won’t go into how i’d like to see Upper Deck’s 20th anniversary cards removed from their entire line-up, but they’ll make appearances and you’ll grow to hate them.

This is a great set for those who plan on selling a chunk of their hits while keeping the base cards.  The foiled appearance is nice, and there’s plenty of numbered sub-sets.  The hits are plentiful, and the 100 card set is small enough to not blow your entire budget on one product.

Evan Longoria

Evan Longoria, The Hype Machine.

The hype-machine would like to welcome your reigning American League Rookie of the Year and member of the American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays, Sir Evan Longoria.

Longoria seems to have his head on right, and is definitely one of the nicer guys around the league.  Always taking time to chat with fans, sign autographs, and generally remain in high spirits.  There is however, a whole lot of weight on his shoulders this year.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Longoria and the Rays to repeat their unbelievable, unexpected, unpredicted, unprecedented success in 2008.

The question is: Will They Live Up To The Hype
As a Reference Point, here’s our Evan Longoria Fantasy Stat Index

YR	LVL	AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
2006	(A-)	33	4	5	11	1	0.424	13.20%	15.20%	1	0.487	0.879	1.366	0.417
2006	(A+)	110	8	22	28	1	0.327	10.60%	17.30%	0.68	0.402	0.618	1.02	0.337
2006	(AA)	105	6	14	19	2	0.267	0.90%	19.00%	0.05	0.266	0.486	0.752	0.278
2007	(AA)	381	21	78	76	4	0.307	11.80%	21.30%	0.63	0.403	0.528	0.93	0.344
2007	(AAA)	104	5	19	19	0	0.269	17.50%	27.90%	0.76	0.398	0.49	0.889	0.329
2008	(AAA)	25	0	2	1	0	0.2	13.80%	20.00%	0.8	0.333	0.2	0.533	0.25
2008	Rays	448	27	67	85	7	0.272	9.30%	27.20%	0.38	0.343	0.531	0.874	0.318
2009	BILLJ	599	37	102	116	9	0.28	10.30%	23.70%	0.49	0.358	0.534	0.892	0.312
2009	CHONE	452	22	71	80	5	0.265	10.10%	25.00%	0.45	0.346	0.476	0.822	0.309
2009	Marcel	400	21	60	71	7	0.28	9.50%	24.00%	0.44	0.351	0.515	0.866	0.322
2009	Oliver	475	24				0.272	8.70%	23.40%	0.41	0.339	0.486	0.825	0.309
2009	ZiPS	515	28	78	91	6	0.264	9.80%	23.70%	0.46	0.342	0.489	0.831	0.296

Longoria has been on the fast track to the big leagues since he was drafted 3rd overall way back in the year 2006.  Longoria was generally considered the best hitter of the bunch and the scouts raved about how quick his hands were.

After last years’ rookie of the year campaign, it appears as though nothing has changed.  Longoria is still very quick through the zone, and has the ability to adjust quickly.

The question fantasy owners want answered is whether or not Evan Longoria will IMPROVE upon last years’ numbers. The odd thing about fantasy drafts is that young players are always projected to improve in the eyes of fantasy owners, while projection models almost always predict a slight regression in the non-counting stats.

The first thing required to guestimate the chance of improvement is Longoria’s ABs.  Longoria started out 2008 in AAA, and after posting mediocre numbers, he got the call.  Some wonder why the Rays even bothered to send him down for 25 AB, but to each his own.

Longoria logged 448 at-bats in 2008, and missed games due to his minor league stint and late season injuries. Longoria broke his left wrist during the dog-days of August, but made it back for the playoffs where everything seemed fine.

Bill James’ Projection Model comes the closest to predicting a full-season for Longoria, at 599AB.  As there appeared to be no lasting effects from the wrist injury, there’s no reason to assume that Longoria won’t play a full season. BJ’s robot also predicts a slight increase in batting average, which brings us to this stat line: 37HR/102R/116RBI/9SB/.280 average.

This is bringing us awful close to David Wright territory (32HR, 112R,119RBI,17SB, .309AVG) and it’s definitely putting Longoria somewhere between tier-1 and tier-2.  A-Rod’s injury currently leaves tier-1 with a single occupant, David Wright. Longoria’s projected line bests Aramis Ramirez’s, and with Chipper’s injury concerns – Is Longoria the second best 3rd Basemen out there?

What’s Keeping Longoria From Being Great

Of the ELITE third basemen (Rodriguez, Wright, Chipper, Ramirez and Longoria,) Longoria stood out in a couple categories, bad categories; strike-out and walk percentage, which we’ll combine into BB:K.

O-SW is O-Swing, or Swing Percentage Outside the zone.  Z-SW is swings within the zone, and SW is total Swing percentage.  CON is contact percentage, with the same sub-categories.

Name	BB%	K%	BB/K	O-SW%	Z-SW%	SW%	O-CON%	Z-CON%	CON%
Alex Rodriguez	11.30%	22.90%	0.56	22.90%	68.00%	46.10%	51.60%	83.50%	75.80%
Aramis Ramirez	11.80%	17.00%	0.79	26.20%	70.10%	48.00%	60.40%	87.80%	80.30%
Chipper Jones	17.00%	13.90%	1.48	15.20%	67.20%	40.10%	65.10%	87.00%	82.70%
David Wright	13.10%	18.80%	0.8	21.90%	69.60%	45.20%	64.80%	89.50%	83.40%
Evan Longoria	9.30%	27.20%	0.38	26.50%	66.40%	46.70%	58.10%	83.50%	76.40%

So here’s our problem: Longoria walks the least and strikes-out the most, giving him a tolerable but not preferable BB/K ratio. Normally we see these numbers with pure power hitters rather than someone who projects more in the David Wright mold.

Longoria also swings the most often at pitches outside the zone, and swings the least at pitches inside the zone.  His low Z-Swing percentage artificially lowers his actual Swing percentage.    When it comes to plate discipline, we’re talking more Aramis Ramirez than David Wright or Chipper Jones.

Considering Longoria has the “worst” eye of the bunch, you’d assume he’d make up for it with his quick wrists but his contact rate floats around Alex Rodriguez who’s far more of a pure power hitter.

I’m hesitant to overly criticize Longoria because different players make different approaches work, and a year from now maybe we’ll be comparing the freshest face with Longoria’s approach.  However, these numbers are troublesome until we actually know what Longoria is: a pure-power hitter, a doubles-machine that hits 35HR a year, or a patient hitter that capitalizes on mistakes.

The good news is that we should expect improvement in all of these fields as Longoria gains experience and matures as a hitter. The bad news is that if Longoria hasn’t made strides during the off-season to curb these bad habits, pitchers will adapt.  This is why so many talented rookies experience the dreaded sophomore slump.

Conclusion:

According to ESPN, Evan Longoria is coming off the board as the second third basemen drafted but he’s nearly 21 positions below David Wright who averages the 4th overall draft spot, or the third player chosen. Overall this puts Longoria somewhere in the neighborhood of Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday.

It’s tough to price Longoria out at this spot, as both Holliday and Beltran run and Fielder plays first base. Alex Rodriguez is going off the board in around the same spot but with his recent injury woes, we can’t exactly judge Longoria against A-Rod either.

However, it’s fairly clear that Longoria’s draft spot reflects a common view that not only will Longoria will play a full season, he’ll also improve.  This is not a stance I’d be willing to take, so long as you can get Youkilis 10 picks later, Ramirez 16 Picks later, and Chipper Jones nearly 30 picks later.  After the elite players there’s a plethora of high-risk / high-reward players that run almost 25 deep.

Evan Longoria has a decent shot of meeting these lofty expectations, but I can’t recommend buying into the hype.  As with any young player, there are going to be some ups and downs and the Tampa Bay Rays will undoubtedly come back down to earth which’ll lower Longoria’s Rib-Eyes and Runs.

If Longoria stole 20 Bases, or hit .300, both of which he theoretically COULD do — it’d be a different ball-game.  But as a .280 hitter that doesn’t run that much, 25th overall or the end of the second round is just too high.

Instead, take a risk on Edwin Encarnacion or Chris Davis that could realistically put up very similar numbers at a much cheaper price. Davis does however suffer from all of the strike-out, contact, and plate discipline problems that may plague Longoria.

Photo's Courtesy Of Keith Allison - Flickr

Evan Longoria

Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2009: Third Basemen

Top 3rd Basemen: The Chlamydia Corner, The Worm Burners.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	510	35	18	104	103	0.302	0.392	0.573	0.56	0.965

One of these days Alex Rodriguez is going to be overtaken by David Wright, but not yet.  Alex Rodriguez brings value across the board, and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon. There’s no reason to think that his power numbers will decline anytime soon, and he should post an OPS around 1.000 each and every year.

The curious part is his stolen base numbers. Each and every year I assume that his SB numbers will dip below 15, and then he goes and hikes it up to around 20. He’s obviously never going to steal 46 bases again, but counting on somewhere between 15 and 20 is a safe assumption.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
David Wright	Mets	626	33	15	115	124	0.302	0.39	0.534	0.8	0.924

Wright has developed into one of the more consistant fantasy players out there, and he’s definitely 1b rather than 2nd overall in these rankings. Unlike Rodriguez, David Wright doesn’t have the potential to go and put up 45 home runs unless absolutely everything goes right.

Wright does have the potential to steal 30 bases, and is one of the few players who even has the potential to go 25/25, let alone 30/30.  Depending on who you’re targetting in the later rounds, the extra 10 SB Wright puts up may be worth the loss in HR between him and Rodriguez.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	554	27	2	97	111	0.289	0.38	0.518	0.79	0.898

The Cubs are stacked and Ramirez is consistant, and consistancy is key in these early rounds.  You’re going to get what you pay for with Ramirez, 30 HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ Runs, and a .300 average.  There are other third baggers that could put up better numbers than Ramirez, but they come with a bit more risk.

The second tier of third basemen clearly ends with Wright and begins with the next couple of guys.  I’ll take consistancy on a great team over potential, any day of the week.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Evan Longoria	Rays	448	27	7	67	85	0.272	0.343	0.531	0.38	0.874

Oh the potential! Everything you look for in a third basemen, Longoria has. In only 448 AB last year, Longoria threw up amazing numbers.  With a year under his belt and a full time starting gig, Longoria should improve upon his numbers across the board.

Longoria plays on a young, and obviously talented, Tampa Bay Rays team.  There’s more than enough protection on either side of him in the line-up, and they’ve had a taste of success.

The one thing to watch with Longoria are his strikeouts and his lack of walks. Players can succeed with a BB:K ratio of .40, but it’s not something you’d like to see. This screams sophmore slump, so watch out.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Chipper Jones	Braves	439	22	4	82	75	0.364	0.47	0.574	1.48	1.044

Chipper has all the talent in the world, but his body is breaking down and asking for 500 AB is probably asking too much.  However, when I value a third basemen — I fill in the missing at bats with a replacement level player. Even in a 14 team league, there are still plenty of third basemen that you can throw in after Chipper has made his annual DL trip.

Third Base is probably the deepest position of them all this year, so drafting Chipper isn’t as risky as it seems.  He’ll probably bat .330+ and hit 20-25 Homers, with the possibility of .350 and 35 Homers.  Chipper is one of the few third basemen who actually have an eye, and has an above 1.00 B/KK ratio.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	538	29	3	91	115	0.312	0.39	0.569	0.57	0.958

I didn’t think Youkilis would succeed last year, or at least put up the 29 home runs.  There was nothing out there that predicted 30 Homers from Youkilis, but that’s how the cookie crumbles.  You will get a solid average from Youkilis, along with a great On Base Percentage.

All of the prediction models have Youkilis around 20 Homers, but there’s no reason Youkilis can’t repeat his 29 HR season of last year.  He plays in a great line-up and will add mass amounts to either your R or RBI depending on where he’s batted in the line-up.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Aubrey Huff	Orioles	598	32	4	96	108	0.304	0.36	0.552	0.6	0.912

It hurts me to put Aubrey Huff here. I’m not a Huff fan, and he’s managed to put up spectacularly average numbers each and every year.

Last year was ridiculous though, absolutely ridiculous, and maybe he finally put everything together.  He clearly has the talent, and always has had it — it’s just putting it all together. Anyways, the potential for .300 and 30HR is hard to resist.  In a young, talented Orioles line-up, Huff should flourish.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Chone Figgins	Angels	453	1	34	72	22	0.276	0.367	0.318	0.78	0.685

It’s impossible to rank Chone Figgins properly against other third-basemen, as his skill-set is pretty much the opposite of every other third basemen.  He compares better to the second basemen, shortstops or centre-fielders. Anyways, I like to ignore Figgins unless you plan on ignoring stolen bases from other typical SB heavy positions.

If that is the case, Figgins is a must.  If your outfield, or middle infield has power guys — then why not get 30-40 SB from your third-bagger.  He’ll obviously improve on his 22 RBIs from last year, so long as he stays healthy.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Garrett Atkins	Rockies	611	21	1	86	99	0.286	0.328	0.452	0.4	0.78

I’m not certain how the Rockies play out this year, and I’m not sure what Garrett Atkins is going to show up.  With Ian Stewart waiting in the wings, who knows if Atkins stays in Colorado.  If he gets traded, his value drops immensely.

If he does play the entire year in Colorado, he should continue putting up damn good numbers at the hot-corner.  His average took a big hit last year, and he should hike it back past .300 in 2009.  Other than that, 30 Homers and 100+ RBI seem about right.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Melvin Mora	Orioles	513	23	3	77	104	0.285	0.342	0.483	0.53	0.826

He’s not a young sexy sleeper, and Baltimore is over-shadowed by New York and Boston.  He produces though, and he puts up consistant numbers.  The average could be anywhere between .275 and .330.  The Homers should be on the nice side of 20, and the RBIs and Runs should pile up with such a solid Orioles offense.

While the next couple guys: Cantu, Davis, Reynolds and Gordon will  probably produce better than Mora — Mora is safe, real safe.  Maybe I’ll move Mora down, maybe not.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jorge Cantu	Marlins	628	29	6	92	95	0.277	0.327	0.481	0.36	0.808

Good Ol’ Jorge. There was a time when Jorge Cantu played for the Devil Rays and was quite the second base dynasty prospect.  He’s not particularly defensive minded by any means, but he’s young and he can swing the stick.  Then, he dissappeared.

Anyways, it looks as though perennial Minor-League smasher, Dallas McPherson may have grabbed the third-base gig for 2009, with Jorge Cantu moving to first after the Mike Jacobs trade.  I’m sure this is a good thing for Cantu, but who knows.  Cantu still strikes out too much, walks too little, and has an awful OBP.  When he does make contact though, it goes a long way.  The Marlins offense appears to be coming along, and depending on where you get him — Cantu is either a steal with lots of upside, or a huge bust with lots of risk.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Christopher Davis	Rangers	295	17	1	51	55	0.285	0.331	0.549	0.23	0.88

Davis is flying up draft-boards and is one of every magazines sleepers.  The kid can hit, and did so in his limited action in 2008.  However, one of these young third-basemen is going to flop.  The K numbers and plate discipline just aren’t there, and this is the case with many of the young corner-infielders.

Davis’ numbers are hard to resist though: In 295 AB last year, he damn nearly slugged .550 with 17 Home Runs.  Boy, can Davis hit.  He’s clearly worth the risk, but expectations need to be held in check considering his massive K rate.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Guillen	Tigers	420	10	9	68	54	0.286	0.376	0.436	0.9	0.811

Guillen was plagued by injuries last year, and only managed 420 AB. Guillen brings with him a different sort of risk than many of the younger third basemen listed both above, and below, him: Injury Risk.

If you think Guillen can keep his ass, literally his ass, healthy then he’s worth a pick earlier than this point. Depending on his position in the line-up, his R or RBI should be around 100 with the other at about 80 and Guillen actually manages to take a walk or two.  He’s a solid hitter, without great pop, and wont particularly contribute to the SB category — although you can expect 5-10, fairly.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	428	14	1	51	51	0.283	0.333	0.442	0.44	0.774

Ryan Zimmerman is another young 3rd baseman, who’s been around long enough to start producing some dirty-ass numbers.  This should be the year that everything comes together, and Washington is starting to look like a half-decent team.

I genuinely have no clue where to actually rank Ryan Zimmerman, but just take a look at his stats and figure it out for yourself.  I suppose you either like him, or you dont. You either like Stud players on bad teams, or you dont.  On a good team, Zimmerman would actually see some pitches, but until someone steps up — teams will continue to pitch around the National best hitter.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mark Reynolds	Diamondbacks	539	28	11	87	97	0.239	0.32	0.458	0.31	0.779

Here we go again, all sorts of talent but strikes out way too damn much. His BB/K ratio isn’t awful because he doesn’t walk, he’s got a bit of Adam Dunn in him, and he’s got a 10% BB rate but he damn near strikes out 40 percent of the time.

Reynolds would be much more useful in an OBP over AVG league, as his .240 average at least becomes a respectable? .320 OBP.  Reynolds is going to steal some bases, hit some HR, and come close to 100 RBIs and Runs.  He’s a ridiculous talent, but his average will kill you.

Of course, if Reynolds improves his average it will certainly come at the loss of some power but he’d still be pretty attractive at 20-25 HR, 80 Runs, 90 RBI, and a .260 AVG.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alex Gordon	Royals	493	16	9	72	59	0.26	0.351	0.432	0.55	0.783

If you’re not on crack like myself, go ahead and move Alex Gordon down 3-4 spots.  I adore crack-cocaine however, and Gordon’s staying here. I’m figuring Gordon puts up a great year, in a poor offense, and finally puts everything together.

Alex Gordon has just as much talent as Evan Longoria, and/or Ryan Braun, yet for some reason he hasn’t put the peices together.  This is the year he swats 35 Homers, and steals 15 bases.  Its gotta be. He’s on the right track, keeping his K% under 25 percent and I can’t help but believe that Alex Gordon and Zack Greinke put the Royals back in the spotlight, at least for 3 weeks.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Edwin Encarnacion	Reds	506	26	1	75	68	0.251	0.34	0.466	0.6	0.807

He’s on the right track, and he’s just gotta keep that average up to maintain fantasy relevance.  He should be in for a break out year, and is just starting to come into his prime at age 26.

Go ahead and circle the hell out of Edwin Encarnancion on your draft card, becaue it genuinely looks like its break out year time.  He could finish as high as 3rd or 4th overall in the final rankings.  He could also be babied again, sent back down to the minors, and never heard from again. (Actually, i’m not sure about Edwins Contract Options — If he’s out of options, I suppose the Red’s wont baby him anymore.  Draft Edwin, if you’d like some risk)

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	544	27	0	69	99	0.27	0.372	0.483	0.84	0.856

I’m a Toronto Jays fan, and i tend to believe that Troy Glaus is a big-ol’ baby, who loves his steroids.

Glaus is bound to get hurt at some point, and when that massive injury occurs, I dont want to be the guy owning him.

Otherwise, Glaus has the potential to keep hitting 30 HR and 100RBI if he stays healthy.  An .850 OBP + SLG puts him in pretty elite company.  Stupid Glaus!

Glaus is already out and  is expected to miss 3 months of the season.  That took about 3 hours since the post.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Adrian Beltre	Mariners	556	25	8	74	77	0.266	0.327	0.457	0.56	0.784

I hate Adrian Beltre.  I hate that he’s got so much talent, and doesn’t play all-out. I hate that he had a good year in LA and got a massive contract from SEA.

Beltre is a great player, who’s younger than he seems, considering he’s been haunting fantasy squads for years.

The moment you forget about Beltre, he’ll go and put up 48HR and 120 RBI *cough cough* 2004.  He’s shown that he can knock out 30 a year while piling up a few SB, but I never want this man on my team.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mike Lowell	Red Sox	419	17	2	58	73	0.274	0.338	0.461	0.62	0.798

How is Mike Lowell still on the Red Sox? Who knows. You probably dont want to draft Mike Lowell, as there’s more than a few guys with great upside at this point.  Mike could return to his 120RBI prowess of two years ago, but i doubt it.

Still good value in this extremely deep 2009 third base class, here.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Casey Blake	- – -	536	21	3	71	81	0.274	0.345	0.463	0.41	0.808

Casey Blake is a safe pick here. He’s not a sexy prospect or an aging veteran, he’s simply a dude that produces and has a sparkling fucking beard.

Possibly the best beard in all of professional sports, ever.  Its thick and lusterous, and the dudes got a huge man-chin.  If he’s in Dodger-town LA all year, he’s got a good chance of hiking up those Run and RBI totals and playing a solid third base. While the know-it-all jerkoff may grab Ian Stewart or Kevin Kouzmanoff here, I’d stick with Casey Blake.

The Best Of The Rest Time:

• Ty Wigginton
• Dallas McPherson
• Joe Crede
• Kevin Kouzmanoff
• Ian Stewart
• Josh Fields
• Bill Hall
• Andy Laroche
• Pablo Sandoval
• Eric Chavez
• Brandon Inge
• Brandon Wood
• Travis Metcalf
• Brian Buscher
• Daniel Murphy
• Wilson Betemit
• Andy Marte
• Scott Rolen (I hate being a Blue Jays Fan)
• Jose Bautista (Truly Hate it, but Getting Bautista was a great call)

Third base is truly insane — from about tenth overall almost to the  bottom, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same numbers.  Pablo Sandoval is a huge sleeper that could easily put up better numbers than Edwin Encarnacion.

You pretty much have to take whomever falls into your lap.  I think the depth of this years 3rd base crop really devalues Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.