edwin encarnacion

Sacks Juiced: May 25

In an off-day for many clubs, a couple players had great games.  Alex Rios homered in the 9th and stole a base in the 2nd in a win over Justin Masterson and the Tribe.  Rios is now hitting .309 on the year with a BABIP right where it should be.  The strike-outs are down a couple percent and he’s making contact 5% more of the time.  Rios’ first strike percentage is down almost 8% and his SwStr% has followed suit, down almost 2pts.  Everything about Rios’ resurgence looks to be legit; it’s just a matter of dedication at this point.

Sergio Santos picked up another hold and registered a strike-out; that’s 10.90 K/9 on the year.  Santos’ fastball is averaging 95.5mph and he’s getting 10mphs of separation on his off-speed stuff (SL: 85.5, CH: 86.3).  The back-end of Santos, Thorton, Putz and Jenks all pitched in John Danks‘ victory and everyone looked solid.  Santos gave up the only hit and Jenks the only walk.

Dustin Pedroia had three hits against the Rays and both Youkilis and Ortiz hit DINGERS!  Youkilis has hit 5 of his 10 home-runs in the last 8-games, I think that’s a hot-streak.  Ortiz has followed suit, hitting 5 of his 9 homers in the last 9 games.  Things are definitely heating up in Boston and everyone gets a slight bump in the rankings.

Clay Buchholz pitched 6 solid innings getting the quality start:  6H, 1ER, 8K, 1BB.  Carlos Pena took Buchholz deep for his only run surrendered. Hopefully if you own Pena, you’re in an OBP league.  Pena’s hitting .191 on the year which is only palatable when he’s hitting homers.   Buchholz, despite his somewhat disappointing K-Rate (6.95-per-9), has returned to his 2007-ways in terms of O-Swing (31%) and Swinging Strike (11%).

Aaron Harang got the win despite allowing five runs (four earned).  Harang only allowed a couple of walks but gave up eight hits in 6.1IP.  Over the course of the season, Harang’s just been remarkably hittable.  Harang’s velocity is up but the horizontal movement has dropped; counteracting that, is the increase in vertical movement.  Batters are just teeing off on Harang’s fastball and I really don’t have an answer… or even a question, at this point.  A .353 BABIP and 65% LOB-rate certainly aren’t helping things.  Harang’s release point is still clustered by pitch, rather than constant, though.

The Blue Jays didn’t homer in last night’s 6-0 victory over the Angels but Adam Lind had a double.  I keep wanting to believe that Lind will snap out of it but the 26% K-Rate is worrisome as is the return to 30%+ O-Swing.  He’s definitely pressing.

The big story of the night was Jose Bautista’s 3 walks.  The Angels didn’t want to pitch to him and Bautista resisted temptation.  Edwin Encarnacion or E5 followed suit by taking a couple walks of his own.

Brett Cecil will get his own article but he pitched very well: 7.1IP, 3K, 2BB.  Cecil’s WHIP is now at 1.15 on the year.

edwin encarnacion

Sacks Juiced: May 22nd.

Excuse me if this is brief, I’ve always had a long-standing mantra when it comes to sports that affected last night:  The Playoffs Rule.  If there’s a playoff game on in any of the four major sports leagues, it takes precedence.  As a Canuck, I probably should be more of a hockey fan but I’m not; it’s baseball and football for me.  With that said, I was pretty excited that the hockey team that plays in a market with winter beat the hockey team that plays in California in an overtime bonanza.  Today, the Canadian team will face the American team at 3:00PM as to not disrupt the 8:20PM Basketball game.

Shin-Soo Choo hit a couple of dingers in the CLE/CIN game.  Choo has a freaky way of maintaining a ridiculously high BABIP, so don’t worry about his .355 BABIP.  The LD% is down but remember that Choo had a .367 and .370 BABIP over the past couple years.  With Choo’s walk-rate up and K-Rate down, he should have absolutely no problem posting a 20-20 season in Cleveland.

Kerry Wood gave up a homer in a non-save situation but also struck out a couple of batters.  Wood’s probably an injury risk and Chris Perez has been solid but at this point, the stuff is there.

Joey Votto stole a couple bases — that’s 6 on the year.  I think Votto’s finally entered the “elite” category of first basemen, but keep an eye on his 50% GB-Rate.

Lefty J.C. Romero retired two batters to get the save for the Phillies against the Red Sox.  Romero relieved Baez, who’d put a man on first and second, in a 4-run game.  Romero got J.D. Drew to ground-out (advancing the runners) before plonking Beltre.  Finally, Romero got David Ortiz to fly out to deep-center.  Romero was more than likely brought in to deal with the lefties and did just that; even if it wasn’t pretty.

Jimmy Rollins was back atop the lineup with Victorino hitting behind  Ibanez.

Tim Hudson shutdown the Pirates.  Hudson has a 2.09ERA and a 3.88K/3.43BB rate — guh.  Obviously, Hudson’s gawdy 66% GB-Rate has been keeping him elite but at some point, the .213 BABIP and 87% LOB-Rate will abandon him.  I don’t see this ending well.

The Orioles are actually starting to hit:  Adam Jones had his first homer since April 24th.

Javier Vazquez got well against the Mets.  Takahashi pitched a very solid game for his first start: 6IP, 5H, 1BB, 0ER, 5K.  Takahashi is now striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP with a 2.91 tERA and a 3.56 xFIP.  Definitely someone to take a look at in deeper leagues (even with a Mets’ bullpen that has WHIPs that resemble ERAs)

Colby Lewis shut down the Cubs even though he walked 3 in 6 IP.  Lewis is striking out a batter per inning and is a solid bet to post a sub-4.00 ERA on the year.  Lewis is going to his Slider quite a bit more than previous years — it’s up to 30% and the Curve’s down to 8% versus last year’s 13% SL/23% CU split.

That’s 12 Saves on the season for Neftali Feliz.  I don’t understand why Texas gave up so soon on the dream of Neftali being a starter but to each his own, I guess.

Brett Myers is now (3-3) on a 15-27 Houston team.  Seven strike-outs in seven innings certainly doesn’t hurt his value.  Myers allowed a single unearned run in the first inning.  Myers is still a grade-A douchebag but his O-Swing is up 5% and his contact-rate is down 5%.  Myers also hasn’t seen his Swinging Strike percentage at 9 in a couple of years.  Myers has been going to his slider more often which has the best downward movement in his career.

Matt Lindstrom picked up his 10th save of the year and has his BB-Rate below 2.  A 3.75 K:BB Matt Lindstrom is a very useful Matt Lindstrom.  He’s left 93% of runners stranded but every other indicator shows that Lindstrom is just better.

Mark Buerhle pitched a great game: 8IP, 3H,  3K.  Buerhle does this from time to time before reminding the world that he’s spectacularly average. Sergio Santos pitched the ninth and struck out a couple batters.  This is me tooting Carlos Quentin’s horn for the third straight day.

Nick Punto was the only Minnesota Twin to not touch home plate and score a run last night.  Nick Blackburn is now 5-and-1.  That’s that for that 15-3 rout.

Jose Guillen hit a couple more DINGERS!  Twenty-two percent of his fly-balls are going for a long ride over the fence.  Unless you’re a baseball purist, there’s absolutely no reason to dislike the hilarity that follows Jose Guillen.

Colby Rasmus tripled for his lone hit of the day.  As a Rasmus owner, I’m absolutely terrified.  Rasmus is striking out 35% of the time and has a .368 BABIP.  Rasmus has a .930 OPS and has been graded AAA by Moody’s, S  & P and Fitch — Obviously, it’s buying time. Banking Sarcasm!

I can’t believe I turned off the Blue Jays / Diamondbacks game last night.  The Diamondbacks (397K) are number one in strike-outs and the Blue Jays (361K) are number 2.  Almost as if these two things were connected, the Blue Jays are number 1 in DINGERS! (72) and the Diamondbacks are number 3 (56 HR).

Here’s the DINGERS! from last night’s game:  Fred Lewis, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, Chris Young.

In six and two-thirds innings, Trevor Cahill struck out four and only walked one.  Walks will be the biggest factor in Cahill’s development.  I love the kid.

Cliff Lee got the win after giving up 7ER?  The weird part is that the Padres didn’t take a single walk, they just aimed and fired en route to 15 hits.

Mike Sweeney hit a couple of DINGERS! but really doesn’t deserve too much attention at this point.

Austin Jackson had two more hits and is still hitting 36% line-drives.

edwin encarnacion

Sacks Juiced: May 18th

Homer Bailey went seven strong innings against the Brewers, giving up 4H, 2BB and a couple ER.  Bailey settled down well after giving up both earned runs in the first.  He relied heavily on his fastball (71%) but his change-up looked better than it had in a couple starts.

Jay Bruce stole a base and collected a couple hits off lefty, Manny Parra.  Bruce has slowly been improving his platoon splits but it’s still quite sensible to sit him against top-tier lefties.  Jay Bruce is now hitting .280 on the year after a .223 ’08 campaign.  Bruce may be striking out more in 2010 but his swing-rate and swinging strikes are both down.  More importantly, Bruce has upped his walk-rate by swinging less outside of the zone.  You get the feeling that a break-out month is on the horizon for Jay Bruce.

Casey McGehee continued to absolutely punish the baseball with 3 hits on Tuesday.  After a 2009 season where McGehee owned the fastball, he’s been doing most of his damage this year on off-speed stuff.  McGehee’s BABIP isn’t spectacularly high — it’s actually the same .330 it was last year – but with only 10% of his hits as line-drives, there’s some concern.

The Toronto Blue Jays continued to light up mistake prone pitches against the Twins and Carl Pavano.  Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion all went yard.  Blue Jays not named Aaron Hill or Adam Lind will eventually regress but I’m not going to be the one to predict it.  With Hill’s homer and Adam Lind’s 2-hit game, their batting averages now sit at .175 and .231, respectively.  Adam Lind will have trouble duplicating his 2009 break-out season without cutting his Ks down to 2009 levels:  currently, he’s at 29% versus 19% in 2009.

Shaun Marcum continues to dominate with control after missing all of 2009 but the ERA is a bit lucky.  Expecting something closer to 2008′s 3.40ERA rather than 2010′s current 2.61 ERA seems to make sense.  Marcum’s ability to move the fastball and place the change-up wherever he damn-well pleases is extraordinary.

Rick Porcello’s sinker just isn’t sinking which is a problem when your value’s tied up in ERA and WHIP. At this point, I’m having major issues seeing Porcello’s upside, especially if he continues to walk almost as many batters as he’s striking out. Rick Porcello walked another 3 batters last night in a very mediocre performance (7IP, 4ER, 8H, 3BB, 2K) against the White Sox.

With 2 Hits and a steal, Brennan Boesch is now hitting .387 on the strength of a .426 BABIP.  The rook’s slugging percentage sits at a darling .680 but this can only last so long with a BB-Rate of 3% and a 51% O-Swing.

Andruw Jones went 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts last night; Can you believe Jones has 7 SB on the year?

Thankfully for White Sox fans, Bobby Jenks pitched a pretty clean 9th inning:  1H, 0BB and 2 Ks.  Sergio Santos walked a couple in one inning’s work to raise his WHIP to 1.08.  Hitters are only hitting .165 against Santos and his very live fastball (AVG Speed: 95.6mph).

Florida spanked Arizona eight to nil on Tuesday.  Justin Upton was the only Diamondback position player to record a hit — which he bundled with another 2 SO, lovely.

Cameron Maybin hit in the 2-hole and recorded a homer, a walk and a strike-out.  The kid’s still hitting just .242 (on a .341 BABIP) and striking out 32.6% of the time.

David Price pitched another solid game for his sixth win of the year.  I’d really like to see Price return to the BB numbers of 2008 (2.57) before I fully endorse him as elite, though.  While Price is getting a bit lucky on balls in play, he’s still pitching incredibly well with a 3.06 FIP and a True ERA (tERA) of 2.91.

Ben Zobrist is still without a homer, but i’d hardly call him a major disappointment after his 7th steal of the year.  His .340 BABIP is almost negated by a 5% increase in line-drives over last year.  The major concerns that I have with Zobrist is his huge jump in O-Swing (’09: 19%, 10: 27%) and decline in BB-Rate (’09: 15%, ’10: 10%).

The Royals and Orioles game was a thriller, just ask the reported 9,715 fans that showed up at Camden to take in the baseball super-event.  Kevin Millwood, a man that I’ll never roster, continued his hot streak going 8 strong innings, striking out seven without a walk.  Millwood’s ERA is now 3.65 on the year and he’s striking out more than 7 batters per 9.

Jose Guillen had two more hits and is now batting .261 with 8HR.  Guillen has quietly gone about matching his 2009 power numbers in about half the games.  He’s already accumulated one more double, one fewer homer, seven fewer runs, and 15 fewer RBI in 41 fewer games.

Zack Greinke got yet another no-decision, despite 7IP, 2ER, 6K and 1BB.  That’s one whole win on the entire year, folks.  If there’s anyway that you can acquire Greinke, I’d do it.  He’ll still end up with at least 10-12 wins on the year.

I’m a bit sensitive about Josh Beckett as the former Texas Highschooler was one of my first ever keeper picks.  In 4.2IP, Beckett gave up another 3ER — That’s good for a season ERA on the wrong side of 7.

C.C. Sabathia allowed a single run in seven solid innings but I’m somewhat concerned about the strike-out and walk totals.  C.C. has a habit of starting out poorly but he’s barely striking out six batters per nine and walking almost 3-per-9.  He should eventually round back into form before that .239 BABIP catches up to him.

Roy Halladay’s complete game, two ER, six K, performance was out-dueled by Zack Duke et. al.  Evan Meek pitched another solid inning in relief, striking out one and walking another.  On the season, Meek has a ERA of 0.69 and has managed to strike-out a batter per inning while only walking 2.42-per-9.  Evan Meek’s added a couple of MPH across the board and his average fastball hitting 95mph is starting to look closer-worthy.  All the plate discipline indicators show that hitters are having trouble with his stuff; it’s just a matter of sustaining the BB-Rate, which he’s lopped in half since 2009.

Ike Davis hit a dinger, his first in a couple weeks.  While the strike-outs are worrisome, he’s walking almost 16% of the time.  There will inconsistency but Davis has looked pretty good thus far:  .275 AVG /.393 OBP/ .466 SLG.

Kris Medlen continued to prove his case with 6.1 innings of 4 Hit ball.  Medlen allowed a couple homers while striking out six and walking a couple.

I have absolutely no fucking clue how Carlos Silva continues to pitch this well.

Five walks in just over five innings got Jhoulys Chacin into trouble.  He still managed to strike-out six batters and his season ERA is now at 3.12.  If Chacin can keep his K:BB on the right side of two, he’ll have success going forward.  Expect the normal bumps and bruises, though.

Carlos Zambrano pitched a perfect ninth: two strike-outs and no walks!  The Cubs want him and his gigantic salary back in the rotation, which at least gives Big-Z owners hope.

Tyler Colvin took advantage of the playing time, knocking in a run and scoring a couple on three hits.  I’m not sure how the Cubbies can make this work but this kid needs to see some consistent at-bats.

Carlos Gonzalez had two hits for the Rockies but there is something dirty about his 2.7% BB-Rate hitting lead-off.

Ian Kinsler hit his first dinger of the year to help Texas beat the Angels.  On the season, Vladdy Guerrero now has eight homers after another one last night.  The question is not if Guerrero will come up with a bum hamstring but when.

Neftali Feliz is rounding back into form, pitching a scoreless ninth with two K’s.

At what point do the Angels just give up on Brandon Wood? Another hitless game for Wood.

Felipe Lopez lead off for the Cardinals last night.  You know the deal with Lopez, he’ll score runs and steal bases but it won’t be pretty.  I’ve got a feeling that Lopez might return to his 20 SB days after stealing just 14 over the course of the previous two years.

Six hits over two games was all it took Ian Desmond to raise his batting average from .246 to .279 — Wonky, eh?    This is a guy that flashed 30SB potential throughout the minors but it’s yet to translate.  In 2009, across two levels and a cup of coffee (AA-AAA-MLB,) Desmond stole 22 Bases.

Felix Hernandez got hit pretty hard (11H, 2BB) without it translating into ER (3).  Ben Sheets came back down to earth as he walked 4 more batters en route to 4ER.

Kurt Suzuki had 3 hits to raise his batting average from .239 to .264.  He’s still a viable option at catcher.

The story of the extra-innings game between the Padres and the Giants was Mat Latos.  Neither Latos nor the Padres got the win thanks in part to Mike Adams’ blown save in the eighth.  Mat Latos’ WHIP now sits just below 1.00 in part because he’s given up just 1 walk in his previous three starts.  Definitely someone worth locking your sights on.

Bud Norris exploded yet again against the Dodgers.  With a couple of hits and a homer, Carlos Lee may finally be starting to heat up.

edwin encarnacion

ESPN Added/Dropped Analysis – Top 10 Dropped

Today, we’ll do the Top-10 (ish) most dropped guys in an ESPN league.

Most Dropped

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edwin encarnacion

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Third Basemen

No Pedro Alvarez, Josh Vitters or Mike Moustakas in the Yahoo or ESPN Player Pool, looks like you’ll have to wait another year. There are plenty of solid keeper options at third base though, especially of the young and unproven variety.

Whether or not they’ll stick at third base, is a whole different ballgame however.  Currently Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Russell Martin, Mark DeRosa, Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez, Hank Blalock, Chase Headley and Jed Lowrie have third base eligibility in Yahoo Leagues, but they haven’t been included because I either don’t think they’ll stick or they’ll provide greater vlaue elsewhere.

Banking on Miguel Cabrera logging 15 Games at 3rd for the next 10 years is a bit iffy, and if you’re drafting Russell Martin — You’re playing him at catcher. A-Rod’s probably got a couple years at DH in him as well, which would warrant him a higher overall than positional rank.  He scoots ahead of Longoria in the overall ranks.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. David Wright – NY Mets – 26 - I thought he had another year to wait, but with Rodriguez’s injury, Wright’s the best third base option, and should continue stealing 15+ bases for the next 4 years.

2. Evan Longoria – TB Rays – 23 - Longoria’s a talent, but I’d expect somewhat of a sophomore slump this year. Blasphemy, I know. In the long run, he should provide you with 10 years of top-3 third basemen play.  A few more SB would be nice.

3. Alex Rodriguez – NY Yankees – 33 - Loses a few months to injury, but he’ll play well into his late 30′s. I’ll take 4 years of first-round talent over 8 years of 5th round talent, any day.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – WAS Nationals – 24 - It’s a tough choice between Zimmerman and Gordon. Gordon ends up being the better player, but Washington surrounds Zimmerman with more talent.

5. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 - Re-upped with Boston, and should produce at a high level for at least 5 more years.  There’s the possibility that Youkilis gets moved back to third to make room for Lars Anderson.

6. Alex Gordon – KC Royals – 25 - If Gordon wants to cash in on all that talent and become a superstar, 2009′s the year.  KC’s putting together a squad that can mash, and they’ll at least be fun to watch.

7. Edwin Encarnacion – CIN Reds – 26 – 2009 is the year Encarnacionn puts it together. I dont think he has the talent of a Zimmerman or Gordon, but the ballpark’s definitely in his favour.  I’d have no problem ranking Edwin above both Zimmerman and Gordon.

8. Aramis Ramirez – CHI Cubs – 30 - Same boat as Youkilis.

9. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 - I haven’t the slightest clue where Sandoval plays out his career, but his versatility can’t hurt.  There’s a good amount of risk associated with Sandoval, and I think you’ll probably have to overpay to get him in any keeper league.

10. Mark Reynolds – ARI Diamondbacks – 25 - Lots of power, not much average.  You’re getting what you pay for.

11. Chipper Jones – ATL Braves – 36 - Where to put Chipper? He can’t stay healthy, and he’s getting old.  He did post his best batting average ever as a 35 year old.  You’ve probably got two years of top-5 third basemen, and 1 year old top-10.  Adjust your rankings based on the depth of your league.

12. Garrett Atkins – COL Rockies – 29 - If Atkins stays in Colorado, he’s probably two spots higher.  Unfortunately, I can’t see him sticking around the mile-high city. Best case scenario: Atkins plays the year out at 3rd base, and eventually gets moved to first base — but he gets to stay in Colorado.  Worst Case: Atkins gets traded to a not-so-hitter-friendly park.

13. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - His next five years could be 30HR, 25HR, 8HR, 17HR, 32HR.  It’s really two bad that he was such a terrible second basemen.  The Marlins are stacked with young talent, so he should continue to put up R & RBI numbers.  There’s also the chance that Florida cleans house again.

14. Adrian Beltre – SEA Mariners – 29 - I can’t believe he’s only 29. He’s been underachieving for almost 10 years now!  Taking a peek at Beltre’s numbers is quite enjoyable. In a purely baseball sense, a sense that takes into account his stellar defense, the Mariners really didn’t waste that massive wad of cash-money signing Beltre.  Now, if only someone could get on base for him.

15. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Who knows what he develops into. He’s ceilings probably 7th or 8th, and his basement is about Joe Crede.

16. Aubrey Huff – BAL Orioles – 32 – Eligibility is going to be a problem going forth.

17. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 – Same boat as Stewart.  Wood’s massive power potential at the shortstop position is worth the risk, but at the third base position 30 HR isn’t all that uncommon.

18. Mat Gamel – MIL Brewers – 23 – His defense is getting better, and he’s almost a below average third baseman.  I don’t know if he’ll stick at third, but he’s got a whoooole lotta potential.

19. Josh Fields – CHI White Sox – 26 – This could be Gamel four years from now.  Fields has got a boatload of potential, and I’d be taking a chance on him.  All of the reports out of Spring Training are encouraging.

20. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 – I probably screwed up this Figgins ranking, but it’s impossible to judge atypical performers in keeper leagues.  In a keeper league, you can’t really gameplan around Figgins by drafting a power-hitting MI to offset Figgins’ lack of power from a typical HR-hitting position. You just want to put together the best team without getting too cute.  With Figgins’ injury history, and almost all of his value coming from speed — I’d  avoid him as my third baseman.

21. Brett Wallace – STL Cardinals – 22 – Ooooh, Ahhhh! Baseball America has him only six spots lower than the mucho-hyped-upped-o, Mat Gamel.  Wallace comes in at the 40th best prospect, and a whole lotta power potential.  Glaus is getting old, and who knows how long Freese can hold Wallace off.  Well worth the risk at this point.

22. Kevin Kouzmanoff – SD Padres – 27 - I have an unhealthy hatred for San Diego third basemen.  I think it’s because I sat on Sean Burroughs for so long. Anyways, here’s a tidbit about Burroughs: After winning the league little world series, a team coached by his father and 1974 AL MVP, Jeff Burroughs; Sean was invited onto David Letterman.  When asked what his dream job was, instead of coming up with the obvious answer of:  “follow in my dad’s footsteps and become a ball player,” Burroughs told Letterman he wanted to be a gynecologist. Kids say the darndest things.  Anyways, I do not want the Kouz on my team.

23. Troy Glaus – STL Cardinals – 32 - Still has a few good years left in him, 2009 isn’t one of those years. He’s got Wallace breathing down his neck, too.

24. Carlos Guillen – DET Tigers – 33 – Detroit will find a spot for Guillen to play, and Guillen should produce for a couple more years.

25. Andy LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 25 - Now that he’s with his brother, and hopefully relaxed — LaRoche is probably a very profitable risk to take heading into 2009.

26. Joe Crede – MIN Twins – 30 – Signed a one-year deal with the Twins.

27. Dayan Viciedo – CHI White Sox – 20 – Cuba, Cuba.  Should be solid, if/when Josh Fields fails.  Even if Fields succeeds, Viciedo will probably snag a spot in the outfield.  At the very least, keep an eye on him.

28. Melvin Mora – BAL Orioles – 37 – I couldn’t believe that Mora was 37 Years old.  Maybe 1 or 2 seasons of 90+ RBI left in ‘em.

29. Bill Hall – MIL Brewers – 29 - Bill Hall should be in his prime, he’s not.  He’s having trouble making contact, let alone smash-killing.  With Gamel breathing down his neck, maybe this year’s the year.

30. Matt Tuiasosopo – SEA Mariners – Solid youngster, you might have to wait a couple years.  I dont see him being anything special though.

31. Mike Lowell – BOS Red Sox – 35

32. Wilson Betemit – CHI White Sox – 27

33. Ty Wigginton – BAL Orioles – 31

34. Jose Bautista – TOR Jays – 28

35. Jeff Keppinger – HOU Astros – 28

36. Brian Buscher – MIN Twins – 27

37. Conor Gillaspie – SF Giants – 21 – I think Gillaspie flops.  Maybe you want to move him above Tuiasosopo, but I dont.

38. Russell Branyan – SEA Mariners – 33

38. Jack Hannahan – OAK Athletics – 29

39. Eric Chavez – OAK Athletics – 31

40. Casey Blake – LA Dodgers – 35

41. Scott Rolen – TOR Blue Jays – 33

Unfortunately, I’m sick as a dog, and the regular season is only a few days ago — So if these seemed rushed, they are.

edwin encarnacion

Diva On A Dime: Fantasy Baseball Edition

Diva on a Dime is a downright awful show, that I believe is truly 100% Canadian Goodness. If left unchecked, Canadian televisions stations would just play American TV shows all day, every day — this is how we end up with CANCON, which forces Canadians to sit through hours of awful television.

Anyways, it’s time to create a fantasy baseball roster without using a single player drafted in the top-200 picks according to ESPN’s Average Live Draft Position.  Obviously, with fun little gimmicks like this, we’re going to be going high-risk/high-reward.

Diva On A Dime Hitters (ADP>200)

C: Kelly Shoppach – Pick 211: Shoppach had 21 homers in 352 AB. A lot of people are going to shy away from him because he doesn’t have a spot to play. A healthy Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko really clog up his options.  Lucky for you, good hitters find spots in the line-up.

If you think all three of the aforementioned players stay healthy, then maybe go with Ramon Hernandez (Pick 202) or Jeff Clement (Pick 245).  I’d also take a risk on Saltalamacchia who doesn’t even register with ESPN at this point.

1B: Big Ole Billy Butler – Pick 242: At this point in the draft it makes sense to go with a lighter hitting first baseman with a solid batting average, rather than a masher like Mike Jacobs / Adam LaRoche. Butler’s competition comes from Loney (ADP: 166), Kotchman (ADP: 237) and a few over-the-hill sluggers (Helton, Giambi, Konerko).

Butler however brings the best value, and best power potential of the doubles-machines.  Loney has the better line-up, and batting directly after Manny will allow him ample opportunity to drive in runs, but Butler has a shot at 22-25HR.  Toss in his .300+ average, and an improved Royal’s squad and we have our first baseman.

Bill James’ Projection Model has Butler at: 73 R/ 18HR / 87 RBI / .295 BA with 15 SB — just kidding, but Zips and Marcel have Butler stealing 2 bases in 3 attempts.

2B: Felipe Lopez – Pick 216: I’m all over Lopez like white on rice. 2005 was a 23HR season, and 2006 brought us 44SB.  Lopez is still only 28 years old (turns 29 in May) but it seems like he’s been around forever.

With Lopez on a good team, and apparently wanting to play again — I expect big things.

SS: Khalil Greene – Pick 224: Greene has been smashing the hell out of spring-training pitching to the tune of a .400 average and .560 SLG percentage.  I’ve been high on Greene all winter, and this doesn’t change my mind.  I wouldn’t rate him terribly higher based on these spring training stats because he’s still Khalil Greene, which you can clearly see by comparing his .400 AVG to his .429 OBP.

MI: Orlando Cabrera – Pick 204: I was tempted to go with Elvis Andrus (ADP 228) here, because we’re going to need some serious steals — but we’ve already got Greene killing our BA.

I like Cabrera in the new and improved Oakland line-up, and expecting 20SB to go along with a solid .280 BA, and at least decent Run totals should fill the hole.

The potential for Andrus and his 50SB is tantalizing.

3B: Edwin Encarnacion – Pick 198: Hey, up until a couple days ago he was ranked right at 200th overall.  Every thing’s in-line for a break-out season. I did a write-up on Edwin a couple days ago, it’ll do all the ‘splainin’

CI: Mark Reynods – Pick 202: We need 30 HR from this spot, so this comes down to a brutal battle between Reynolds and Jason Giambi. I’d like to take a chance of Kendry Morales, who doesn’t even register on ESPN — but I’ll save him for later.

The battle between Reynolds and Giambi comes down to BA, and strangely enough Reynolds wins. All of the projection models believe his 2008 average of .239 was a mistake, and he should rebound to anywhere from .249 to .269.  I can live with that, so long as the HR, R, RBI are there.

We also just nabbed ourselves 10 more SB.

OF: Nelson Cruz – Pick 202: Bill James has him coming in at 31HR, 81R, 92RBI with a .280 average.  While i’m not completely sold, and I still somewhat see Cruz as a quad-A player — Cant turn him away at pick 202.

OF: Elijah Dukes – Pick 226: Oh Me, Oh My.  Dukes has all the talent in the world, and could easily go 25HR/25SB but he could also hit 3 HR and steal .75 Bases.  This is the high-risk/high-reward thing I was talking about.

OF: Chris Dickerson – Pick, I dont Know: Let’s drop the bomb and select another potential 25/25 guy with a whole lot of risk.  BJ Robot has him at 37 Steals and 21 HR! I’ll take that.  His skill set is nice, and Reds fan’s will appreciate him.

UTIL: Shin-Soo Choo – Pick 204: Might as well throw in another solid Power / Speed combo guy with a solid average.  At this point, the outfield and util spots have really saved this team.  Choo’s on many folks lists to break out in 2009, and I can’t blame ‘em.

…now onto pitching

SP1: Brandon Morrow – Pick 217: I thought with the hype Morrow was getting he’d be way above this point.  Take Morrow and Run.  He’s got a great K-rate, and while he’s a bit wild, don’t worry be happy.

SP2: Chris Young – Pick 219: Chris Young has bad luck, but isn’t a huge injury concern unless you think he’s been psychologically broken by that Pujols line-drive to the face. With Young you’re getting the potential for a Golden-WHIP (1.13 in 2006, and 1.10 in 2007) and at least 8K per 9.

SP3: Ubaldo Jiminez – Pick 227: You’ll notice we’re loading up on high-strikeout pitchers.  With the lack of saves available to us at this point, we’re probably going to have to punt the category and thus draft some very solid late-inning relievers.  They’ll be bringing low-era, low-whip to offset our massive control issues.

Jiminez is posed for a break-out year, even if half his games are pitched at Coors.

RP1: Jason Motte – Pick 210: Motte’s value will keep rising with the news that he’s won the closer role over Chris Perez, in St. Louis. We’ve got a shot at some saves here, so we might as well take it.

RP2: Jose Arredondo – Pick 233: There’s still a couple closers, but that’s no fun.  If you’re into Huston Street or George Sherrill, the choice is yours. At this point though, Arredondo brings a lot of goodies, like a solid era and a very good K-rate.

Expecting a return to 10-win-land is ridiculous, but pitching in late relief for the Angels will provide him with plenty of chances to nab those random-wins or even saves.  He should be one of the first non-closers off the board.

P: John Maine – Pick 226: Maine regressed in every possible category last year.  If he levels out, you should expect a sub-4.00 ERA, 180K, and round about 1.30ish WHIP.  This is pretty solid for a player who’s upside could easily eclipse these numbers.

P: Manny Parra – Pick 234: I’m banking on Parra improving in 2009, along with him pitching a full-season. Parra’s a solid lefty that should be able to put up 8ish K per 9. The K:BB ratio is only going to be around 1.5, which’ll limit your WHIP to around 1.40ish with a good amount of upside.  Parra won’t repeat the 1.54 disaster  that he called his 2008 WHIP, again.

P: Jared Weaver – Pick 216: Weaver was once a top-prospect that all the fantasy folk were drooling over.  Now, he seems to be an afterthought.  The man’s got terrible hair, but all the potential in the world.  His nearly 8 K per 9, combined with a very solid 2.81 strikesouts per walk, makes for a steal at this pick.

P: Hong Chih-Kuo – Pick 244: I figured I’d toss another reliever in here that’ll put up some solid rate stats.  We’ve got all these high-strikeout, high-walk rate starters that we need to offset. Kuo struck out 96 to only 21 walks in 2008, and in doing so posted a beautiful 4.57 K:BB ratio.

You can use this as a list of sleepers, or just something to kill time but each of these players are available after pick 200 and each could contribute to your team in even the shallowest of standard-leagues.

edwin encarnacion

National Edwin Encarnacion Day

I’ve been working on this for a bit, but like the multitude of things I start doing; there’s about a fifty-fifty shot that I’ll finish it. I’m not sure if I’ll ever finish this tribute to the great Edwin Encarnacion, but I’ll try.  If not, once this magazine gets settled in, I’ll go about posting the 30 or so half-finished articles that demand that you draft a player, without ever getting to telling you why you should draft him.

Edwin Encarnacion is coming in at, get ready: the 16th third basemen off the board, and the 197th pick according to ESPN and he’s went up 10 spots in the past week.  Ridiculous!

Third base is deep this year, real deep, but can Encarnacion outproduce Guillen, Cantu, Gordon, Figgins, Zimmerman, Huff, Beltre, Atkins and Davis? You’re damn right he can, and I’d bet the farm that he’ll fall in the top half of that group fantasy wise.

Let’s start with the bad, and work our way to the good:

Stolen Bases: You’ll get 4 or 5, maybe if the Lord looked down and said to Encarnacion, “Run, My Child, Run!”; He might go and steal 8 bases matching his career high of 2 years ago.

Double-E

Batting Average: Last year wasn’t a banner year for Edwin, and he managed to post a less than spectacular .251 batting average.  This is pretty much the line where Batting Averages start to negatively effect you, at least in my books.  Anything lower than .250 and you really have to hold it again the guy.

There’s plenty of hope though, and the robots have Double-E coming in at BJ: .278, Chone: .281, Marcel: .271, Oliver: .267 and Zips: .272. These are solid enough batting average numbers, and after posting .276 and .289 in his previous two seasons, the .251 really seems like a year we can forget about.

While third base is deep this year, they aren’t the best at hitting for average. If you’re name isn’t Chipper, Wright, or A-Rod — you’re happy if you’re putting up a .285 average on the year.

Encarnacion’s K percentage is concerning, floating around 20.2% but his 10.8% walk rate gives him at least a tolerable .60 BB to K ratio. His BB:K ratio is what separates him from the other guys around his talent level.

Runs and RBIs: This is where Edwin Encarnacion lags behind the competition as the great Marco Scutaro scored one more run, and his 60 RBI are what you’d expect from a light-hitting middle infielder.

So, will this change? Indeedly do, it will.

1. The Reds are maturing as a team, and you’d expect improvement from both Votto and Bruce who will more than likely bat on each side of Edwin Encarnacion.
2. The Reds now have Willy Taveras, and Chris Dickerson batting ahead of Double-E who’ll probably hit anywhere from the 3-hole to the 6-hole.  He’ll more than likely come in at the clean-up spot with both Dunn and Griffey out of the picture.
3. While Taveras and Phillips aren’t known for their OBP, they’ll both score runs.

Realistically, how much of an improvement can we expect from Edwin Encarnacion? I’d probably go with 10-15 in both categories, making Encarnacion a very valuable commodity.  A lot of it will depend on how well the Reds improve and mature, as they’re still youngins. He’ll probably improve on the 506AB he logged last year, if he manages to stay healthy.  85 of both RBI and RUNS is a solid estimate, and who knows, he could get to 90.

Power, or Home Runs: Edwin made use of those 506 AB last year, hitting 26 HR which is somewhat in no-man’s land when it comes to third basemen with nine different 3-baggers hitting at least 25HR and five more hitting at least 20HR.  The good news is they’re all fairly bunched together, with A-Rod leading the pack with 35HR.

Encarnacion came in with a .215 Isolated power, and .466 Slugging percentage which puts him in fairly elite third base company: Only A-Rod, Longoria, Ramirez, Wright, and Mini-Dunn, Mark Reynolds bested Edwin in Isolated Power. Glaus, Mora and Cantu are added to the group when looking at Slugging percentage, which puts Edwin pretty much square in the center of the rankings.

Expecting ’round about the same numbers seems right. Edwin could keep his batting average around .250 and improve on his HR totals, and get to the sexy-side of 30 or he could, as I believe he will, keep his power numbers around the 25 mark while returning his batting average to a very respectable .285.  It’s all about plate approach.

Finally, Who Wants To Get Lucky? I hate focusing too much on luck, or claiming that a low BABIP is solely a representation of bad luck but Edwin Encarnacion’s .267 Batting Average On Balls In Play is ugly, real ugly.

We should expect a return to, at the very least, the .300-range.  What this ought to do is improve Encarnacion’s numbers across the board.

The Conclusion: Edwin is going far too low in almost every league I’ve seen, there’s no reason to draft a third basemen early with such depth at the position.  I’d avoid the high-end third-basemen unless they fell into my lap.  As I mentioned, Longoria’s going way too early with such depth at the position. I see Edwin finishing somewhere in the range of the 7th best third basemen, and I’d try to grab him as late as possible.  Maybe split the difference in projected finish and his current draft spot and grab him somewhere in the 140s or 150s — I think I’d draft him in the top-100 if need be.

thumbnail photo courtesy of Architekt2.Flickr