Draft

Emotions in Fantasy Baseball: The Girlfriend Post

Sit 100 men down, and ask them for a description of their ideal women.  Combine their results, and take a quick peek at the third most important quality. You know, the quality that comes right after ‘huge tits’ and right before ‘enjoys giving blowjobs’ — Yup, there it is, A Love of Sports. Personality is obviously the most important quality, right? Okay, so maybe your list is different.

Having the woman in your life loving sports is a double edged sword, or possibly a very large DAGGER. On one side, you don’t have to beg to watch the ballgame instead of House Hunters. At the same time however, if she’s just moderately knowledgeable, she’s essentially the dumb guy you call when you have an odd number of teams in your league. You know that guy, we all do; He’s the guy that drafts the home-team heroes, and BAM! Scott Rolen’s off the board in Round 3.

Yesterday I was asked to help her with a draft, which I knew would end terribly.  She’s a Red Sox homer, so I basically get stuck filling in the holes between Jon Lester and Jonathan Papelbon. For the most part, I can live with most of her picks as they’re somewhat competent but once she starts scrolling down in the player rankings — Game Over.

It doesn’t matter that she’s looking at players who have an ADP of 100 at pick 40, if she sees someone she wants, she’s taking him. She’s also incredibly loyal, which I suppose is good for me, but if you treated her right last year, she’ll keep you around. Hiroki Kuroda, or “My Little Asian”, treated her incredibly well last year and like hell if she was going to let him slip past.

The categories were interesting to say the least, yet prior to the draft I was told: “Oh, they’re just standard.”

Standard they are, if the league was entitled SABRmetrics Gone Wild:

Hitting Categories: R, HR, RBI, SB, AVG plus the awesome combination of Total Hits, Slugging Percentage, On-Base Percentage and Strike-outs.

Pitching Categories: W, SV, WHIP, ERA, K and once again, there’s no reason not to throw in Innings Pitched, Holds, and Strike-out to Walk Ratio.

With 9 Hitting and 8 Pitching categories, I was already concerned with the state of the league.  Dropping Total Hits, Strike-outs and Holds probably would have worked best.  With Saves worth just as much as Holds, and Holds leaders generally attaining more innings and oftentimes better ratios — It was time to ignore Saves completely and draft 8th inning guys on good clubs.

Onto the Draft…

She was blessed with the second pick in your average 10 team league. Realistically, 3 people had a shot at winning this league unless someone got unbelievably lucky,

Round 1, Pick 2: Albert Pujols - It’s next to impossible to screw this up.

Round 2, Pick 19: Prince Fielder – With a CI spot, and two UTILs, it was time to load up on power early.

Round 3, Pick 22: Tim Lincecum – I would have preferred another hitter at this point, but her selection of Lincecum was quite solid.

Round 4, Pick 39: Jonathan Papelbon – She loves her Red Sox, and this is where the cursing started to come out.  Some of you may not think that openly cursing at your girlfriend is something a gentleman would do, you’re probably right. That is why I kept the cursing vaguely directed, and posted many o’ hypothetical questions. All of which were answered with the response: You take this too seriously…

Round 5, Pick 42: Brian Roberts - Robert’s comes to Toronto and signs autographs each and every time. He’s one of the nicer guys in the league, and with his .800+ OPS, he’ll be useful in this league assuming he doesn’t get hurt. The cursing has stopped, and I’m no longer threatening to go home.

Round 6, Pick 59: Stephen Drew – This was a mandatory selection, because he produced for her last year.  I wasn’t going to argue, as the pick has a good amount of upside.  Looking back, Drew’s hatred for the free-pass may hurt him in a league like this.

Round 7, Pick 62:  Adam Dunn – I like Dunn, and she’d already thrown away Strike-Outs as a category.  We’re going to be having some serious issues in the Hits category though.  OBP and SLG as two separate categories negate the addition of strike-outs and hits.  Solid selection, I’m once again happy with her.

Round 8, Pick 79: Jay Bruce - This was my selection, and I’ve always been a fan of drafting risk around pick 60-100.  If everything goes wrong, you haven’t lost the league as the Waiver Wire generally produces a couple of guys that finish between 50 and 100.

Round 9, Pick 82:  John Lester – I’ve threatened to walk out again, and this time I mean it.  Lester is far and away her favourite player, but I can’t help but see John Lackey, Felix Hernandez, Rich Harden, Scott Kazmir all go at least a round later. Lester should have went around the same time as Gallardo, about 3 or 4 rounds later.  I’m sure I made this out to be a bigger deal than it was, and Lester could still go for some solid numbers but — ugh, I’ve packed up my stuff.

Round 10, Pick 99:  Lastings Milledge – Milledge was a guy I drafted her late last year, and he somehow managed to stay on her roster the entire year.  She wanted herself some Milledge, and while he’s not perfect for this league set-up, I’m once again intrigued by her team.  I start unpacking my stuff….again.

Round 11, Pick 102:  Edwin Encarnacion - I like Edwin, and when she said his name — I said yessir, click away. I would have been okay with Joey Votto at this spot as well, but I figured we’d save a UTIL spot for some sweet deals later in the draft.

Round 12, Pick 119: Chris Iannetta - She’s now starting to list off the positions that we need, and we’re not even halfway into the draft.  I’ve completely monopolized her computer to do some pre-ranking stuff. ‘WE NEED A CATCHER!’ I’d been looking at Iannetta for a bit, so we pull the trigger.

Round 13, Pick 122: Justin Upton - We’ve sort of hit a dead-spot in the draft, and nothing is standing out.  She’s looking through pictures of the players to see who looks draft worthy…I recommend Upton, and he passes the attractiveness test.

Round 14, Pick 139:  Ricky Nolasco – Nolasco finished up well, and his K:BB rate makes him an incredible pick in leagues like this.  She complains how ugly Nolasco is — I make the pick anyways.

Round 15, Pick 142: Zack Greinke – His downright awful spring worries me, but in any league where you get extra points for K:BB, Greinke’s a solid pick.

Round 16, Pick 159: Elijah Dukes - Ohhh, Elijah…I like that name, she says. We’ve now drafted the entire Nationals outfield, and I’m okay with that. I get the feeling that my girlfriend would be quite easily tricked into fathering yet another illegitimate child for Elijah.  Thankfully, she is not pleased with Dukes’ photo, she’s actually somewhat disgusted.

Round 17, Pick 162: Matt Capps – She drafted Papelbon too damn early, so we’re committed to this whole closer thing.  Capps doesn’t walk batters, which is good.

Round 18, Pick 179: Scott Baker - He’s slated to miss a couple starts, and I was fairly cheesed by Kershaw going off the board a couple picks earlier.

Round 19, Pick 182: Pablo Sandoval – I didn’t realize Sandoval had catcher eligibility in Yahoo.  They must have lowered their standards, and quite frankly I am not happy about such decisions.  I force feed her the pick, eventhough we drafted Iannetta earlier.

Round 20, Pick 199: Joel Hanrahan – He’s a bit wild but he’s got the gig on our favourite team this year, the Washington Nationals. I’ve started to go to the junk-pile of closers, and I’m okay with that.

Round 21, Pick 202:  Fausto Carmona - It’s now pretty clear that I’ve completely stolen her computer away.  It’s making some pretty ridiculous noises and it’s hot as hell, so I unplug the laptop cooling pad from my computer and stick it in hers.  It’s now about 2:15 in the afternoon, and she’s yet to get out of bed.  By the way, Carmona is worth the risk at this point.

Round 22, Pick 219: Khalil Greene – I’ve been hearing that we need a Middle Infielder for about 4 rounds now, but I can’t bring myself to take Theriot, Matsui, Weeks or Lowrie. I figure it’s about time to take a massive risk on the average-killer Khalil Greene.  I’m banking on him hitting at least .270, anything less and we’ll just cut bait.  “He looks like a serial killer,” is uttered as I click on his name and his picture pops up.

Round 23, Pick 222: Chris Dickerson – In a league where OBP, SLG, and AVG are all categories, it’s idiotic to draft someone that only steals bases.  I’ve let Gomez, Bourn, and Tavares pass me by, and instead went for a handful of the potential 15/15 or 20/20 guys.  Dickerson doesn’t have a spot to play on our roster, but should fit in nicely once one of the catchers is traded. For the time being, he’ll be platooned with Pablo Sandoval in our last UTIL spot.

Round 24, Pick 239:  Jason Motte – Almost all of the cheap-o closers without Job Security are off the board, and no one has drafted a holds guy.  At this point, I’m once again cursing the fact that Papelbon was chosen so early.  Our last 4 picks should have been Bruney, Shields, Arredondo and Juan Cruz (or something like that).  Instead we go for the flame thrower, Jason Motte.  He’ll hurt our K:BB, but I suppose he could put everything together.

Round 25, Pick 242: Brad Ziegler - Devine’s hurt, and it looks like Ziggy has the SV opportunities.  I’m figuring on getting 3 or 4 out of him before he’s converted into, or dropped for, a Holds Guy.

Round 26, Pick 259: Hiroki Kuroda - She’s literally been nagging me since Elijah Dukes to draft My Little Asian. I can’t bring myself to do it, but she’s procured the computer during one of my smoke breaks.

Round 27, Pick 261: Elvis Andrus - It’s the last round, and she likes the name Elvis. I’m not sure if we’ve punted holds, I’m not sure if anyone’s even drafted holds.  J.J. Putz was drafted insanely early, and Arredondo was drafted by the only competent owner in the league.  With a stacked offense in a head to head league, and A-Rod on the DL, he’ll undoubtedly abandon the 4 SP he has and just roll out solid ratio relievers, who rack up the holds.

I’m a firm believer of choosing your draft strategy based on what falls to you in the first 5 rounds.  Unfortunately, after round 10 or so, you have to stick to it and there’s no going back. While Papelbon’s and Lester’s early draft spots won’t kill you, the adjustments they force you to make may end up blowing up all over your face.

There’s still a sizeable amount of SP depth floating around the Waiver Wire, and it’s going to be tough figuring out who goes where and whether or not it’s worth it at this point to pick up HOLDS guys.

fin.

Draft

Evan Longoria, The Hype Machine.

The hype-machine would like to welcome your reigning American League Rookie of the Year and member of the American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays, Sir Evan Longoria.

Longoria seems to have his head on right, and is definitely one of the nicer guys around the league.  Always taking time to chat with fans, sign autographs, and generally remain in high spirits.  There is however, a whole lot of weight on his shoulders this year.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Longoria and the Rays to repeat their unbelievable, unexpected, unpredicted, unprecedented success in 2008.

The question is: Will They Live Up To The Hype
As a Reference Point, here’s our Evan Longoria Fantasy Stat Index

YR	LVL	AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
2006	(A-)	33	4	5	11	1	0.424	13.20%	15.20%	1	0.487	0.879	1.366	0.417
2006	(A+)	110	8	22	28	1	0.327	10.60%	17.30%	0.68	0.402	0.618	1.02	0.337
2006	(AA)	105	6	14	19	2	0.267	0.90%	19.00%	0.05	0.266	0.486	0.752	0.278
2007	(AA)	381	21	78	76	4	0.307	11.80%	21.30%	0.63	0.403	0.528	0.93	0.344
2007	(AAA)	104	5	19	19	0	0.269	17.50%	27.90%	0.76	0.398	0.49	0.889	0.329
2008	(AAA)	25	0	2	1	0	0.2	13.80%	20.00%	0.8	0.333	0.2	0.533	0.25
2008	Rays	448	27	67	85	7	0.272	9.30%	27.20%	0.38	0.343	0.531	0.874	0.318
2009	BILLJ	599	37	102	116	9	0.28	10.30%	23.70%	0.49	0.358	0.534	0.892	0.312
2009	CHONE	452	22	71	80	5	0.265	10.10%	25.00%	0.45	0.346	0.476	0.822	0.309
2009	Marcel	400	21	60	71	7	0.28	9.50%	24.00%	0.44	0.351	0.515	0.866	0.322
2009	Oliver	475	24				0.272	8.70%	23.40%	0.41	0.339	0.486	0.825	0.309
2009	ZiPS	515	28	78	91	6	0.264	9.80%	23.70%	0.46	0.342	0.489	0.831	0.296

Longoria has been on the fast track to the big leagues since he was drafted 3rd overall way back in the year 2006.  Longoria was generally considered the best hitter of the bunch and the scouts raved about how quick his hands were.

After last years’ rookie of the year campaign, it appears as though nothing has changed.  Longoria is still very quick through the zone, and has the ability to adjust quickly.

The question fantasy owners want answered is whether or not Evan Longoria will IMPROVE upon last years’ numbers. The odd thing about fantasy drafts is that young players are always projected to improve in the eyes of fantasy owners, while projection models almost always predict a slight regression in the non-counting stats.

The first thing required to guestimate the chance of improvement is Longoria’s ABs.  Longoria started out 2008 in AAA, and after posting mediocre numbers, he got the call.  Some wonder why the Rays even bothered to send him down for 25 AB, but to each his own.

Longoria logged 448 at-bats in 2008, and missed games due to his minor league stint and late season injuries. Longoria broke his left wrist during the dog-days of August, but made it back for the playoffs where everything seemed fine.

Bill James’ Projection Model comes the closest to predicting a full-season for Longoria, at 599AB.  As there appeared to be no lasting effects from the wrist injury, there’s no reason to assume that Longoria won’t play a full season. BJ’s robot also predicts a slight increase in batting average, which brings us to this stat line: 37HR/102R/116RBI/9SB/.280 average.

This is bringing us awful close to David Wright territory (32HR, 112R,119RBI,17SB, .309AVG) and it’s definitely putting Longoria somewhere between tier-1 and tier-2.  A-Rod’s injury currently leaves tier-1 with a single occupant, David Wright. Longoria’s projected line bests Aramis Ramirez’s, and with Chipper’s injury concerns – Is Longoria the second best 3rd Basemen out there?

What’s Keeping Longoria From Being Great

Of the ELITE third basemen (Rodriguez, Wright, Chipper, Ramirez and Longoria,) Longoria stood out in a couple categories, bad categories; strike-out and walk percentage, which we’ll combine into BB:K.

O-SW is O-Swing, or Swing Percentage Outside the zone.  Z-SW is swings within the zone, and SW is total Swing percentage.  CON is contact percentage, with the same sub-categories.

Name	BB%	K%	BB/K	O-SW%	Z-SW%	SW%	O-CON%	Z-CON%	CON%
Alex Rodriguez	11.30%	22.90%	0.56	22.90%	68.00%	46.10%	51.60%	83.50%	75.80%
Aramis Ramirez	11.80%	17.00%	0.79	26.20%	70.10%	48.00%	60.40%	87.80%	80.30%
Chipper Jones	17.00%	13.90%	1.48	15.20%	67.20%	40.10%	65.10%	87.00%	82.70%
David Wright	13.10%	18.80%	0.8	21.90%	69.60%	45.20%	64.80%	89.50%	83.40%
Evan Longoria	9.30%	27.20%	0.38	26.50%	66.40%	46.70%	58.10%	83.50%	76.40%

So here’s our problem: Longoria walks the least and strikes-out the most, giving him a tolerable but not preferable BB/K ratio. Normally we see these numbers with pure power hitters rather than someone who projects more in the David Wright mold.

Longoria also swings the most often at pitches outside the zone, and swings the least at pitches inside the zone.  His low Z-Swing percentage artificially lowers his actual Swing percentage.    When it comes to plate discipline, we’re talking more Aramis Ramirez than David Wright or Chipper Jones.

Considering Longoria has the “worst” eye of the bunch, you’d assume he’d make up for it with his quick wrists but his contact rate floats around Alex Rodriguez who’s far more of a pure power hitter.

I’m hesitant to overly criticize Longoria because different players make different approaches work, and a year from now maybe we’ll be comparing the freshest face with Longoria’s approach.  However, these numbers are troublesome until we actually know what Longoria is: a pure-power hitter, a doubles-machine that hits 35HR a year, or a patient hitter that capitalizes on mistakes.

The good news is that we should expect improvement in all of these fields as Longoria gains experience and matures as a hitter. The bad news is that if Longoria hasn’t made strides during the off-season to curb these bad habits, pitchers will adapt.  This is why so many talented rookies experience the dreaded sophomore slump.

Conclusion:

According to ESPN, Evan Longoria is coming off the board as the second third basemen drafted but he’s nearly 21 positions below David Wright who averages the 4th overall draft spot, or the third player chosen. Overall this puts Longoria somewhere in the neighborhood of Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday.

It’s tough to price Longoria out at this spot, as both Holliday and Beltran run and Fielder plays first base. Alex Rodriguez is going off the board in around the same spot but with his recent injury woes, we can’t exactly judge Longoria against A-Rod either.

However, it’s fairly clear that Longoria’s draft spot reflects a common view that not only will Longoria will play a full season, he’ll also improve.  This is not a stance I’d be willing to take, so long as you can get Youkilis 10 picks later, Ramirez 16 Picks later, and Chipper Jones nearly 30 picks later.  After the elite players there’s a plethora of high-risk / high-reward players that run almost 25 deep.

Evan Longoria has a decent shot of meeting these lofty expectations, but I can’t recommend buying into the hype.  As with any young player, there are going to be some ups and downs and the Tampa Bay Rays will undoubtedly come back down to earth which’ll lower Longoria’s Rib-Eyes and Runs.

If Longoria stole 20 Bases, or hit .300, both of which he theoretically COULD do — it’d be a different ball-game.  But as a .280 hitter that doesn’t run that much, 25th overall or the end of the second round is just too high.

Instead, take a risk on Edwin Encarnacion or Chris Davis that could realistically put up very similar numbers at a much cheaper price. Davis does however suffer from all of the strike-out, contact, and plate discipline problems that may plague Longoria.

Photo's Courtesy Of Keith Allison - Flickr

Draft

All Rookie Team: Sleepers and Sure Things.

Top Prospects at Catchers

Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles

Matt Wieters is far and away the best of the bunch, and should contribute early and often.  He’s worth a roster-spot in any format, and should bring plenty of everything to your fantasy squad. There’s been plenty of peeps comparing Matt Wieters to Joe Mauer + power.

What this means for people who are bad with addition and maths in general  is: Matt Wieters has a very sweet swing, a swing that you show in hitting clinics and can punish the ball. He’s got a superior eye, a major league ready eye, and the patience to go with it.

Of course, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Wieters prioritize one of his skills over the others, depending on coaching. Wieters could take the Joe Mauer route, and rely solely on his eye/patience and become a .320 hitter each and every year. In College, A+ and AA ball, Matt Wieters didn’t hit lower than .345.

Wieters could also sacrafice a few points in average, to become one of the best power-hitting catchers — ever.  It wouldn’t surprise me for Wieters to hit 25 Home Runs every year that he stays healthy.  At 6′4, 225lbs, the potential for a switch to first base after a few years is a definite possibility. I guess it all relies on whether or not his back holds up.