Doug Fister

Sacks Juiced: May 26

Dallas Braden left the Oakland loss in the fourth inning with a sore ankle.  Braden had issued an unearned run and three hits in four innings before allowing a couple walks and being pulled.  Braden believes that he’ll make his next scheduled start.

Braden’s counterpart, Jeremy Guthrie, pitched six innings allowing one earned run for the quality start.  Guthrie walked three batters while only striking out a couple. As I’ve said before, Guthrie’s a rate-stat only fantasy pitcher with a penchant for keeping his BABIP low by inducing groundballs and catchable flies.  Guthrie’s FIP, xFIP and tERA will always trend above his actual ERA but hoping for a continuation of 3.64 ERA is a pipe dream.  Jeremy Guthrie is the king of average, and you should probably expect that going forward.

Jake Peavy got lit up by the Sizemore-less Cleveland Indians.  Peavy allowed 6ER on 8H but only walked a single batter while striking out 5.  Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald went deep off of Peavy.  Peavy hasn’t looked like this since his second year in the league (2007) where he went 12-11 with an ERA of 4.11 and a FIP of almost five.  The strike-outs are still there (8.02K/9) but the walks have ballooned past 3 and a half.

Mitch Talbot lowered his ERA to 3.73 and WHIP to 1.28 with a 7 inning, 2 earned run ball game against the Sox.  At this point, shutting down the Sox is nothing to celebrate.  After starting the season with an ERA in the twos, Talbot’s had 3 bad games in his last five (Jays, Detroit, and KC).

Travis Hafner’s average is up to .281 after a couple of hits but it’s an empty average.  Hafner’s power is nowhere near his career mark and his ISO is under .150.  There’s some good news on the horizon though, just not 30HR news.  Over the last 8-games, Hafner’s managed extra bases (4Doubles, 1HR) in five.  Hafner’s working on a 12-Game hitting streak, too!  For someone that started May with a .197 AVG and .324 SLG, closing it out with a .281 AVG and .430 SLG is pretty impressive.

Jason Heyward went 2-for-4 with a couple RBIs and now has a .296/.415/.578 line which makes for one hell of a .992 OPS.

Cameron Maybin had 2 hits and a DINGER! but this is me ignoring those numbers.

Maybe Anibal Sanchez gets his own article after 6.1IP of 5H, 2ER, 6K baseball.

Life sure is good for Martin Prado who now has 32 Runs on the year after a 3hit, 1R night.  Batting ahead of Heyward et. al means 52% of your pitches will be in the zone and almost 65% will be fastballs.

Doumit hit a homer and Andrew McCutchen had a couple hits to raise his BA to .324.  McCutchen’s .371 BABIP is high for even him — he’s more of a .290 hitter.

Mike Leake magically turned 10 hits and a walk into only a single earned run.  Leake went 7.1 innings and struck out three — This kid can pitch and if this were a different year (read. no Heyward,) he’d be the odds on favourite to win the NL ROY.

Lester walked FIVE! batters and gave up one hit in his 6 inning, 0ER, 9K performance.  Despite the walks, he’s back to being Jon Lester, future Cy Young award winner. A single by Wily Aybar was the only hit on the day against Lester.  I’m starting to think that the Rays enjoy being no-hit.

James Shields allowed 2 ER, 4H, 2BB while striking out 5 over his 8 inning stint.  Shields pitched a terrific game and is still amongst the elite.

Mike Cameron is back, yet it was Ellsbury rather than Hermida that sat.

Jose Reyes stole 2 bases, had 3 hits, and scored 3 runs last night.  He is an elite shortstop, even if the power’s not there.

R.A. Dickey had 7K in 6IP but I’d rather not discuss a knuckleballer.  Dickey managed to get his way out of three bases loaded jams in the first three innings, so thing’s aren’t exactly exciting.

Derrek Lee hit a homer but the BA is still a concern — Lee’s hitting 21% LD and his BABIP is .262 so there’s definitely room for improvement. ZiPS has him hitting .280 the rest of the season.

Ryan Dempster looked great holding LA scoreless while allowing three hits while striking out seven and walking a single batter.

Clayton Kershaw only allowed 4 H and a couple of walks but it once again took him 100+ pitches to get through 6IP.

Vladdy Guerrero went off for a couple of DINGERS! in his 5RBI performance.  Hamilton and Cruz didn’t miss out on the action, each hitting one of their own.

Billy Butler continued his hot hitting with a couple hits and a walk.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gil Meche is hurt; something’s wrong with his delivery and presence. Meche gave up 6 R (4ER) on 4HR and has a 6.66 ERA on the year.

Rich Harden continues to test my patience after allowing 6R (5ER) against the Royals.  Neftali Feliz got the save and looks to be doing his thang.

Rickie Weeks went 3-for-5 with 2R, 2RBI and a HR.  Weeks still strikes out too much and doesn’t walk nearly enough but this may be a sign that his mid-May slump is over.

Recent call-up, Jonathan Lucroy, has a couple hits in his first two games.  Unfortunately, the ballsy catcher saw it fit to try and steal a base — fail.  Lucroy did steal 8 bases in A-ball a couple years ago, but I wouldn’t count on more than 1 at the MLB level.  Lucroy will more than like split the platoon with Kottaras while Zaun’s out.

Both Jhouyls Chacin and Ian Kennedy pitched a’ight games.  If I had to pick one going forward, Chacin’s electric stuff takes it.

Yah, that’s Troy Tulowitzki’s third homer in 3 games and 4th in 5 games.

In THE pitching match-up of the night, Jon Garland tossed 7IP of scoreless baseball for the win but was outpitched by Adam Wainwright who, aside from a solo-knock by Hairston Jr, pitched brilliantly.  Wainwright struck out 12 Padres while only allowing a single walk and four hits — that’s how the cookie crumbles, I guess.

Jose Bautista hit another homer, as did Jeremy Reed and Aaron Hill, but it wasn’t enough.  Aside from the Dingers!, Ervin Santana pitched a masterful game by locating his fastball and getting the Jays to chase that dirty slider.  Santana pitched a complete game 4-hitter with 10Ks — going forward, I wouldn’t be too worried about those HR.

Mike Napoli is on fire: 4HR in his last 5G and 5HR in his last 8G.

Doug Fister got yet another win from a 7 inning, 3R, 2ER, 1K performance.  This guy blows my mind.

Maybe Milton Bradley’s finally rounding into form with a homer and 3RBI last night.

Livan Hernandez is finally regressing!!!!

4ER in 5IP on 7Hits last night.

Doug Fister

Sacks Juiced: May 19th

The Royals’ Mike Aviles continued his hot hitting as he posted 3 hits (incl. a double and a triple)  in last nights victory over the Indians.  Aviles, who’s now hitting .390, will live and die by his BABIP.  Fifty-Nine at-bats into 2010 and Aviles still hasn’t drawn a walk which isn’t the best indicator going forward.  His BABIP sits at .412 but at least he’s making contact 93% of the time and keeping his LD-Rate above 20%.   We’re basically looking at a jacked-up version of Luis Castillo, who was himself, valuable every once and a while.

The Indians imploded, with Kerry Wood giving up five runs and a couple walks in 0.1 Innings of work.  It’s only been 3 IP and Wood’s walked 5 batters but the velocity is better than it’s been in a couple years:  95.6 mph on the FB.  The movement on his pitches according to pFX is also very similar to previous years.  Either way, batters have made contact with exactly 91% of pitches that they’ve swung at.  Worse still, Wood’s Z-Contact sits at  …100%.  With Kerry Wood, I wouldn’t worry unless he proves the BBs are here to stay.

Asdrubal Cabrera had surgery and will be out 8-10 weeks.  Grady Sizemore bruised his left knee and hit the DL too.  Trevor Crowe, replacing Sizemore,  hit leadoff and stole a base.  The stolen base potential is there for Crowe, having topped 20 SB in most of the previous years.

Alcides Escobar had 3 hits to raise his BA to .248.  Escobar’s BABIP is .274 after routinely posting .3-something during his career. So long as Escobar sits atop that line-up and hits line-drives 20% of the time, he’ll have value going forward.

With his 9th steal of the season, Ryan Braun‘s on track to steal about 35 on the year — Jesus.  He should top last year’s 20 but hoping for anything past 25 is pushing your luck.

Octavio Dotel recorded his 9th save of the year; his ERA now sits at 6.23 after that scoreless outing.

I thought about benching Wade Davis against the Yankees — they pegged him for 4 ER in 6IP to open the season — but decided against it and was rewarded with better than expected results: A W, 5.2IP, 2ER, 7K.  Davis is still getting pretty lucky with BABIP (.258) and LOB% (85%;) so expect a bit more regression in the future.  Davis has to bring his BB-Rate of 4.73-per-9 if he’s going to succeed.

A.J. Burnett exploded again: 4BB, 9H = 6 ER in 6.2 IP.  That’s 16 ER in the last 3 starts and his ERA is still only at 3.86.  Well, at least it’s Tampa, Boston and Minny.

Robbie Cano had yet another 4 hits last night.  Cano’s sitting at .340 on the year and leads the AL.

The Gorgonzola pitched another good game for the Cubs ( 6.2IP, 0ER, 3H, 2BB, 5K)

Other than Starlin Castro, the Cubbies offense was pretty bland against Jamie Moyer (7IP, 4H, 2ER, 7K, 1BB).  Castro’s impressed me thus far: He’s walking more than he’s striking out, hitting a decent amount of LDs, and making solid contact.  It’s only 49 plate appearances, but I thought the Cubs were destined to ruin this heralded prospect.

Angel Pagan hit an inside the park home-run and still has arguably the best use of poetic juxtaposition in a name ever.

Drew Storen came in with a man on second and got Livan Hernandez out of a jam. In 55.2 IP, Livan Hernandez has stranded 97.5% of base runners and *held* opponents to a BABIP of .193.  Is there anything you can do aside from chuckle?

Daniel Bard got his first save of the year after finishing up a gem by Clay Buchholz.   It seems like the fantasy community was one, maybe even two, full years ahead when it came to predicting Buchholz and Hughes dominance.  Clay Buchholz may still have a 1.43 WHIP but a .305 BABIP and 69% strand-rate show that there’s room for improvement.  Walks are still a problem but Buchholz only walked a single Twin while striking out 7 in last night’s 8-inning gem.  The line would’ve been better if Bard hadn’t allowed Denard Span to score on a Joe Mauer ground-out.

David Ortiz homered again:  that’s 2 in the last 3 games and 4 HR in the last 6 games.  More importantly, that’s 3 straight games without a strike-out for David Ortiz.

Jason Heyward got his OBP back over .400 after it temporarily dropped to — gasp! — .399 on Tuesday.  Two doubles and a triple mean that more homers are on the horizon.

Scott Rolen’s always an injury risk but boy has he been on a tear over the last 5 games.  Rolen’s raised his average 30pts, slugging percentage 70pts, and OPS a whole 85pts.

Houston scored 7 RUNS! Carlos Lee has homers in the last two games and three homers in the last 4 games.  That’s 3/5ths of his homer total in the last 4 games.

After a sub-par 2009, Jeremy Guthrie is back to being Jeremy Guthrie after hurling 6 Innings of 7-hit ball while allowing only a single earned run.  Guthrie struck out three Rangers before the bullpen blew it.  I won’t begin to even try and understand how Guthrie posted  3.70 and 3.63 ERAs in 2007 and 2008, respectively.  Guthrie’s back on pace to do it again in 2010, though.  A major decline in GB:FB ratio caused Guthrie problems last year and he’s went about fixing it in 2010.  Guthrie’s a guy who should float around a 4.40 ERA but he’s outpitched his indicators twice before, so I’m buying.  The O-Swing percentage is back to 2007-2008 levels and the rest of the plate discipline stats sit somewhere between 2007 and 2009.

As for the Rangers, not much has changed.  Josh Hamilton hit a homer and joined Kinsler, Guerrero and Cruz with an RBI each.  Justin Smoak is hitting .174 and killing me in my keeper league.

Joe Saunders and John Danks pitched a pretty decent game.  Danks struck out 8 but Saunders got the W. John Danks almost has his K:BB up to 3 and has pitched just as well as his 2.26 ERA would indicate (3.09 FIP, 2.56 tERA).  Based on Plate Discipline Statistics, we’re looking at 2008 John Danks (3.32 ERA -3.44 FIP) rather than 2009 Danks (3.77 ERA – 4.59 FIP)

Dan Uggla went deep again (11HR) and is posting the highest OBP (.380) of his career.  Uggla, of course, struck out again which has him pretty much on last year’s pace (26%) with a 24% K-Rate.  There are some underlying issues with Uggla though:  a drastic decrease in LD-Rate (10.5% in 2010) and an unsustainable 22.5 HR/FB ratio.  Uggla’s currently hitting a career high 46.5% (up 10% from last year) of his fair-contacts for grounders, too.

Jaime Garcia threw five innings of five hit ball without allowing an earned run.  Garcia continues to strike out batters (6 last night) but the walks are still a bit of an issue (4 last night).  Obviously Garcia isn’t a 1.28 ERA / 1.14 WHIP pitcher, but he should prove himself to be rosterable for the majority of the year.  Just how many innings Garcia can hold it together for isn’t quite clear yet — Assuming anything more than 130IP seems like a stretch at this point.

Anibal Sanchez outpitched Garcia last night — 7IP, 4H, 8K, 2BB.  On the season, Sanchez has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.  Sanchez has seemingly been around forever and his Major League BB-Rate is finally coming close to his minors numbers.  When Sanchez isn’t walking 5 batters per nine, he can be pretty effective.

The Diamondbacks stomped the Giants, 13-1.  Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson, and Stephen Drew each had a DINGER:  Adam LaRoche had two!

Ian Kennedy kept up his hot start, pitching 8 innings and striking out 9.  Kennedy’s getting lucky with a .252 BABIP and 82.4% LOB but his K:BB of 3.06 is very promising.  Kennedy’s pounding the zone early with a 65% First Strike Rate.  The 3.24 ERA isn’t sustainable but solid K-numbers from a high-threes, low-fours, ERA guy isn’t all that bad.

Austin Jackson had 2 more hits and his BABIP is .458 almost three weeks into May.

Justin Verlander pitched a 1-run complete game and he’s still amongst the top in the AL. The strike-outs are down and the walks are up but there’s still plenty of time for correction: Just take note and remember his BABIP should be around .300, not .264.

Doug Fister got himself into and then out of trouble against the Blue Jays.  It just looked like he lost control for a handful of ABs.

Kevin Gregg got his 12th save of the year.  A BB-Rate in the twos helps take the sting out of the fact that Kevin GREGG!!! is our fucking closer.  Hitters are pounding the ball into the ground at a 50%-clip against Gregg.  Kevin Gregg the man, the myth, the legend, seriously is striking out 4.40 batters per walk.

One thing that’s stuck out is Kevin Gregg’s fastball. Gregg’s still throwing hard on the four-seamer but the pFX and velocity charts lead me to believe that he’s either amped up his slider or has started throwing the damn cutter that the Blue Jays love so much. Check out the Slider Graph and the Game Charts and you tell me.

Headley and Gonzalez went yard but the biggest surprise for me was Ramon Ortiz.  Yah, I didn’t know Little Pedro was still pitching.