Detroit Tigers

Austin Jackson: It’s Mr. Jackson If You’re Nasty.

When I selected Austin Jackson as the last pick in my keeper league, I didn’t expect this.  Jackson, once the darling of New York, had slowly went about lowering expectations before heading to the Motor City. Are we still allowed to call Detroit that?  It sure does sound better than the land of dead industry and defaulted mortgages, I guess.

To say that I’ve been pleasantly surprised by a .376 average, 1 HR, 9RBI, 23 Runs and 5 SB is an understatement.  Beneath these numbers lies the ugly truth: A BABIP of .524, a K% of 30, and a LD% of 39!

If Jackson cares to build on his early success en route to an AL ROY award, something has to change, because as Fangraphs and Yahoo will tell you, “This Shit Aint Sustainable, Son!”

The Tigers understand that Jackson’s also bound for regression, but they’ve apparently planned for this.  Unlike may of the floundering youngsters, with Jackson, the Tigers have said “Fuck it” and stuck him in the lead-off hole.

The Tigers know Jackson strikes out too much but they’ve said, “Fuck it!  Stick him ahead of Damon, Ordonez, and Cabrera.”  As a result, Jackson has been getting quality pitches on almost every AB.  It doesn’t matter that Jackson’s struggling against Change-Ups.

At the big-league level, almost every pitcher can spot his fastball or at the very least, it’s the pitch he goes to when he’s behind in the count.  Jackson can hit the fastball and with the trio of quality hitters trailing him, he’ll continue to get his fair share of ‘em.  Jackson will struggle against many of the premium pitchers that can spot their off-speed stuff each and every AB.   However, against league-average pitchers, Jackson has a decided advantage when he steps into the batter’s box.  If pitchers feel confident that Jackson will chase junk, they can try their luck.  Once Jackson gets on base though, he’s got the speed and the batters behind him to make the pitcher pay immediately.

Jackson is exhibiting league-average discipline skills and as long as he sits atop the Tigers’ line-up, he’ll continue to produce.  Obviously not at this ridiculous level, but I wouldn’t be writing him off quite yet.  If you have Jackson and can sell high, go ahead and do just that.  In the internet era, no one’s buying what you’re selling, though.  Jackson’s doing so well that everyone’s focused on his flaws rather than his success.

If I were in a league with a bunch of stats-driven nerds, I’d be tempted to acquire rather than deal Mr. Austin Jackson.

Detroit Tigers

I Hate Jarrod Washburn…

I wouldn’t own Jarrod if my life came down to it, I haven’t the fondest clue why he’s on my list of hated players, but he’s there and a 2.64 ERA and 1.07 WHIP aren’t going to change my mind.  Anyone that owns Washburn is playing with fire and I’m not talking BIC lighter, I’m talking Molotov Cocktail.

Yet, after 20 starts and 133 Innings Pitched, I feel the need to look into this mysterious resurrection.  Maybe Washburn got healthy, maybe he took some “supplements,” but that would make for a dull article.

What’s Changed?

Washburn’s always been able to get lefties out, save a ridiculous 2006 season, but he’s seen his WHIP deflate to a minuscule 0.72 against lefties while holding them to a 0.168 batting average.

It’s righties that’s Washburn’s had difficulty getting out.  In 2007 and 2008, right-handed batters nearly hit .300 off Washburn, ballooning his WHIP to nearly 1.50.  In 2009, Washburn’s similarly lowered his WHIP (1.20) and BAA (.244) against righties.

So How’d He Do It?

Popular belief leans towards Washburn’s new fangled two-seam sinking fastball.  The pitch itself isn’t spectacular, it’s shockingly average actually, but considering that Washburn can throw every pitch in the book, it’s a useful pitch.

What does stand out is Washburn’s across the board improvement.  He not only added an extra pitch, all of his other pitches just got inexplicably better.  Normally when a pitcher adds velocity, he’ll sacrifice movement and vice-versa.  Washburn however has managed to add velocity across the board, while simultaneously increasing movement.

Washburn’s getting more swings and less contact by cutting and sinking his fastball, which is generally a good combo.  The mixture of these pitches with his average off speed stuff has resulted in a few more missed bats, but he still doesn’t have a true “out pitch.”  In turn, his K% has remained stagnant at around five and a half batters per nine.

The Other Stuff…

Washburn benefits from Seattle’s spacious confines as Safeco almost always falls in the bottom third of parks for home-runs.

In addition to the park, Seattle’s defense has been uncontrollably awesome.  Between Gutierrez, Ichiro, Chavez and Langerhans, the Seattle Mariners have one of the best outfields in the business.  All of their regulars have a positive UZR/150 and their team defense is second only behind the San Francisco Giants.

…The Other Stuff Part II — The Bad Stuff.

The move to Detroit and Comerica Park shouldn’t hurt Washburn too badly.  Comerica plays similarly to Safeco on deep flies, and the Tigers defense sans Magglio is also fairly solid.

Washburn’s posting a career best BABIP of .249, almost 50pts below his career average.  Furthermore, Washburn’s leaving almost 80% of runners on base, which comes close to matching his career best of 82% LOB from 2005.

Washburn’s posting yet another career high when it comes to keeping long-flies in the park, posting a 6.4% HR/FB percentage. What makes this even more concerning is that the majority of Washburn’s fly balls are leaving the infield (8.1% IFFP.)

Finally, the quality of batters that Washburn’s faced haven’t exactly been stellar:

Against the teams below .500 (Baltimore, Cleveland, Kansas City, Minnesota, Oakland, Toronto, Arizona and San Diego,) Washburn has pitched incredibly well with a 1.17 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over the course of 76 IP.

Against teams above .500 (Detroit, Anaheim, New York, Tampa, Texas, Colorado,) Washburn hasn’t faired nearly as well posting a 4.63 ERA and 1.26 WHIP with a couple epic blow-ups against the Angels and Yankees.

It makes sense that his numbers would be worse facing the tougher squads, but considering that Washburn’s faced fairly poor teams 60% of the time, is at least moderately interesting.

Luckily for Washburn, he was traded to the AL Central and the Tigers have Baltimore, Minnesota, Kansas City, Oakland and Seattle mixed in with their series against Boston, Tampa, and Los Angeles.

Things get even better in September with series against Cleveland x 2, Kansas City x 2, Toronto, Minnesota x 2, before the Tigers face Tampa and the White Sox x 2.

From the looks of it, the Tigers have 12 series against mediocre squads and only 6 against .500 or better teams.

Finally, the end…

Washburn has improved, there’s no doubting that.  He’s also gotten fairly lucky as noted by the large difference between his ERA and FIP.  You should expect him to come back down to earth, but he also has a lot of easy games coming up.  He’s faced the majority of these teams before, and dominated them, but I’d be worried the second and third time that Washburn faces the same teams.

Detroit Tigers

Rick Porcello & Trevor Cahill: Past, Present, Future.

Heading into 2009, Baseball America did everyone a favour and ranked the top-100 prospects. After dominating Olympic competition, Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and his heavy fastball jumped into the top-20 as the 11th overall prospect, just behind super-prospect Neftali Feliz. Twenty-year old Rick Porcello wasn’t all that far behind as Baseball America ranked him the 21st overall for the second year in a row.

It’s Porcello, one year removed from his 7-million dollar prep-bonus, that’s adapted to the level of competition quicker — or so it appears. Porcello’s currently 6-and-2 with a sparking 3.48 ERA which is head and shoulders above Cahill’s 4.48 ERA and 2-and-5 record. Their Fielding Independent Pitching ERAs aren’t nearly as pretty, but Porcello once against bests Cahill with a 4.67 to 5.61 advantage. Neither Porcello nor Cahill has been as dominant as expected; both posted painfully low strike-out numbers, especially given their pure stuff.  Porcello posted surprisingly low strike-out totals in his first professional season, failing to tally 6-K per 9 in High-A.  Porcello‘s continued to post mediocre strike-out totals in the show, notching only 5.57 K per 9, thus far.  Porcello‘s succeeded on the strength of a ridiculous 54% ground-ball rate and by limiting free passes.

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Detroit Tigers

Let’s Talk About Sex: Justin Verlander

I’m probably not the only one that’s compared Justin Verlander to a beautiful woman, a woman that’s clearly out of your league. A woman that you bring home for a chandelier rockin’ night of passion only to wake up the next morning and realize that your wallet’s gone, you’re handcuffed to the bed, and your radio’s stuck on the Colin Cowherd show…NOOOOO! TURN IT OFFFFF!
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