Derek Jeter

Batting Average Assumptions For 2010

When it comes to hitters, the only standard rate-statistic is batting average. Pitchers, well, they get their ERA and WHIP, so I’ll deal with those in an upcoming article. Today, I’ll try to primarily focus on quite possibly the most difficult to quantify of all the statistics in your standard roto-league.

First, we’ll have to suspend disbelief, unless you’re a Twins fan, I suppose. Joe Mauer probably isn’t going to duplicate his .365 Batting Average in 2010, but for the purpose of this example; We’ll just assume he does.

So Let’s take these Five BA Leaders and take a deeper look inside their numbers:

Name	AB	H	AVG
Joe Mauer	523	191	0.365
Ichiro Suzuki	639	225	0.352
Hanley Ramirez	576	197	0.342
Derek Jeter	634	212	0.334
Pablo Sandoval	572	189	0.330
Albert Pujols	568	186	0.327
Todd Helton	544	177	0.325
Miguel Cabrera	611	198	0.324

All great hitters and if you’re drafting any of ‘em, you’re going to get a nice little bump in the Batting Average category.  However, just how valuable is Joe Mauer’s .365 compared to Ichiro’s .352 or Jeter’s .344?

Well, the easiest way for me to quantify their value is to just add ‘em to everyone’s favourite three-outcome player: Adam Dunn.  In 2009, Dunn had 146 Hits in 546 AB — good for a .267 Batting Average.  Ideally, we’d compare them to the replacement level BA player on your roster, but using Dunn provides a tangible example.

Name	AB	H	AVG	+DUNN’s AB	+DUNN’s H	Total BA
Joe Mauer	523	191	0.365	1069	337	0.315
Ichiro Suzuki	639	225	0.352	1185	371	0.313
Hanley Ramirez	576	197	0.342	1122	343	0.306
Derek Jeter	634	212	0.334	1180	358	0.303
Pablo Sandoval	572	189	0.330	1118	335	0.300
Albert Pujols	568	186	0.327	1114	332	0.298
Todd Helton	544	177	0.325	1090	323	0.296
Miguel Cabrera	611	198	0.324	1157	344	0.297

You’ll notice the batting average decrease is disproportional, as expected.   Suffices to say, hitting .365 over 523 ABs is an astounding achievement but it looks a lot better than it actually contributes to the BA category. Ichiro’s extra 100 at-bats almost completely negates Joe Mauer’s original 13pt advantage.

The easiest way to view batting average without putting too much thought into it is to subtract a single point for every 25 (or so) ABs below 600 and to add a point for every 25 or so above that number.  This is just a rough work-around and the effect will decrease as you get closer to your team’s average BA.

Here are some of the players that are overvalued based on limited ABs:

1. Chris Coghlan, .321 AVG  — 504 ABs
2. Jason Bartlett, .320 AVG — 500 AB
3. Erick Aybar, .312 AVG — 504 AB
4. Magglio Ordonez, .310 AVG — 465 AB

…and the undervalued players:

1. Ichiro Suzuki, .352 — 649 AB
2. Robbie Cano, .320 — 637 AB
3. Braun, Jeter, and Miguel Cabrera as well.

Obviously, this doesn’t take into account WHY a player missed his AB, just that he missed them.  In some cases, players miss AB due to their position in the line-up or even the line-up itself.  A catcher will generally take more off-days than a fielder and a lead-off hitter will get more ABs than someone in the 9-hole.  In other cases, players just refuse to take a walk.  These variables stay pretty constant from year to year, though.  Ichiro’s Batting Average is consistently over a larger number of ABs because of the previous reasons.  If a player posted a solid batting average in 2009, but missed the 600 AB mark due to injury; it’s best to just look at his historical ABs, assuming that he hasn’t changed teams.

Your best bet is to focus on good hitters that bat in the top-3 of a good offensive line-up while converting his plate appearances into hits rather than walks.

Also keep in mind that the reverse is true:  Jimmy Rollins’ .250 Batting Average over 672 at-bats hurts a lot more than Russell Martin’s .250 Batting Average over 505 at-bats.

The worst case scenario is to both overvalue Joe Mauer’s .365 batting average while undervaluing the impact of Jimmy Rollins’ .250 Batting Average.

Say you drafted Joe Mauer’s .365 BA and Jimmy Rollins’ .250 Batting Average.  At first glance (a straight average) would give you a .308 Batting Average which makes for a solid draft-strategy.  However, if you factor in the number ABs the averages were achieved over, you’ll end up with a .300 BA — Not nearly as impressive.

A Caveat:

It’s almost impossible to predict a players Batting Average within 10 points, so if you’re feeling a certain player for a break-out year — Go ahead and take ‘em.

Derek Jeter

That’s A Lot Of Money For A Band Box

A grand coliseum it is, unfortunately what’s going on inside isn’t gladiatorial at all — it is far more reminiscent of Christians being fed to LIONS.

In the first three games at New Yankee Stadium, the visiting Cleveland Indians have scored, gulp, 37 runs.  The Yankees have managed a respectable,  but not spectacular, 12 Runs.
Read more

Derek Jeter

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Shortstops

If you’re in a keeper league, shortstop is always the hardest position to fill.  In 2009, the shortstop position is a mess and if you don’t get one early, you’re in trouble.

Luckily there’s help just around the corner, unfortunately it’s not in the yahoo player pool quite yet. Mike Moustakas, and Gordon Beckham aren’t all that far away and should probably be in the pool by next year, if not later this year.  Tim Beckham and Wilmer Flores on the other hand are still a couple years away, but you never know what Yahoo and ESPN will do to their player pool come 2010.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

Onto the Shortstop Rankings for a Deep (ish) Keeper or Dynasty League

1. Hanley Ramirez – FLA Marlins – 25 - Number one pick in fantasy this year, and probably for the next 5 years.  Any decrease in speed should be off-set by an increase in power.

2. Jose Reyes – NY Mets – 25 - At some point he’ll develop power, until then just enjoy the ride.  The first two picks really need no explanation at all.

3. Troy Tulowitzki – COL Rockies – 24 - This is where the explanations begin:  Tulo isn’t the most talented offensive shortstop left on the board, but he does play in Colorado. His glove-work will help keep him on the field throughout the worst o’ slumps.

4. Stephen Drew – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 – Drew has better offensive potential than Tulo and is starting to come into his own.  This may be Drew’s break-out year, and ranking Drew and Tulowitzki is a coin flip.

5. Alexei Ramirez – CHI White Sox – 27 - Ramirez is a popular pick this year, and he brings a rare power/speed combo to the table. He’s a free swinger, and while I woudln’t go out of my way to pick him in a one year league; he has solid long-term value.

6. J.J. Hardy – MIL Brewers – 26 - Hardy brings much needed power to a light hitting position. At 26, Hardy is just starting to enter his power prime.  Expect improvement.

7. Jimmy Rollins – PHI Phillies – 30 - Rollins had a terrible year last year, but he managed to save it by stealing a shit-tonne of bases.  The speeds slowly going to fade away, so Rollins needs to prove he return to his 20-30 HR days.

8. Rafael Furcal – LA Dodgers – 31 – Furcal’s starting to get up there in age and he’s pretty gosh-darn fragile.  I’m assuming 31 is his actual age, but who knows. He’s still performing at an efficient level, and there shouldn’t be a drop off for another couple years.  Nice Power/Speed combo.

9. Jhonny Peralta – CLE Indians – 26 - Peralta is a masher and after his disastrous 2006 season, he’s continued to improve.  He’s pretty much a lock for 20+ HR, and should continue to improve.  His batting average no longer kills him, so he’s a nice bet for your starting SS.

10. Yunel Escobar – ATL Braves – 26 - I probably have Escobar higher than most, but with an eye like Escobar’s — there’s something there.  Escobar posted damn-near as many walks as he did strike-outs, and while his batting average was sub-.300, he’ll push it up and over that mark to stay in 2009. Escobar isn’t a power guy, nor is he a speed guy but he is going to be the SS for a young, talented, Braves team.  With the amount he gets on base, he’ll be scoring plenty of runs with Franceour, Schafer, Heyward, and the harem of minor-league talent in Atlanta.

11. Elvis Andrus – TEX Rangers – 20 - Speed, Speed and more Speed.  He’ll develop the rest in due time.  The stolen bases should keep him rosterable during the slow maturation process though.

12. Derek Jeter – NY Yankees – 34 - I haven’t the fondest clue as to how much Jeter has left in the tank, let alone how long he’ll stick at shortstop.  While he’s there, he’ll provide a little bit of everything.

13. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 - Does he stick at short? Does he cut down on those strike-outs? Wood has all of the potential in the world, but unless he cuts down on those K’s, he’ll be one of the biggest busts of the century.

14. Alcides Escobar – MIL Brewers – 22 – Escobar’s got a great glove, that’ll keep him in any line-up.  He’s currently blocked by Hardy at SS, but Hardy will be the one to move.  Milwaukee has enough talent in the pipe-line to trade Matt LaPorta, so there’s no reason to believe that Escobar won’t be a run scoring machine.

15. Jed Lowrie – BOS Red Sox – 24 - I’m not a believer, and I’m not sure how long he’ll stick at the shortstop position.  If he sticks, he’ll provide great value from a hard to fill position.

16. Michael Young – TEX Rangers – 32 - Young’s shortstop eligibility is gone after this year.  I’m not sure where to rank him based on this.  He’ll probably log between 10 and 15 games at Shortstop this year, so he could potentially maintain his eligibility. He’s got a great team, and a great ballpark which leads  me to believe that he’ll remain useful for a few more years.

This is where the fun begins, as we’re getting into the guys that aren’t guarenteed a job, or are old as dirt.  Either way, expecting more than 2 seasons out of them is asking a lot.  If you’ve got a feeling — go with it!

17. Mike Aviles – KC Royals – 28 - Is Aviles a late-bloomer or a bust waiting to happen.  Aviles just keeping the seat warm for Moustakas.

18. Miguel Tejada – HOU Astros – 34 - I’m not sure what’s left in the tank, even if he avoided jail time.  He’s probably got about 2 years left of being somewhat rosterable. The solid Astro’s line-up should at least keep his counting stats up.

19. Khalil Greene – STL Cardinals – 29 - I’m tempering my man-crush on Khalil in the keeper rankings.  Greene has the potential to really move up these rankings, and he’s still young enough to contribute for 4 or 5 more years.  I’d definitely recommend taking a flier on Greene this year.

20. Ryan Theriot – CHI Cubs – 29 – As high as I am on Greene, I’m equally as down on Theriot.  I am not a believer, and after this year he may well be without a job.  There’s potential here, but I’m not buying the hype.  The solid line-up really saves him from a free-fall.

21.  Felipe Lopez – ARZ Diamondbacks – 29 - I like Lopez a good bit this year, and he has a whole lotta potential buried inside — somewhere.  If he’s allowed to run, he’ll fit somewhere between Wood and Jeter.

22. Jason Barlett – TAM Rays – 29 - Barlett’s in a solid line-up and has improved quite a bit since he was traded away from Minnesota. Tampa has a prospect line-up waiting to fill Barlett’s shoes.  If Brignac fails to man up, Bartlett will have a few years to put up stats before Beckham gets to the show.

23. Orlando Cabrera – OAK Athletics – 35 - You might get more than a couple years out of Cabrera. He seems like the kind of player that just wont go away.  He’ll be production for at least 2009, and he might be worth a pick if you think he’ll play at a high level into his late 30s.

24. Edgar Renteria – SF Giants – 34 - Renteria falls into the same category as Cabrera, and while there’s still a few prospects out there — I’d rather take someone like Renteria to contribute the next couple years while I wait to draft a SS prospect.

25. Erick Aybar – LA Angels – 25 – Aybar is a nice little mixture of speed and average.  I’m fairly high on Wood, because of his potential.  Aybar doesn’t have the potential, but he probably has a solid shot at sticking at SS even if Wood starts producing.

26. Absdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians – 23: I like Cabrera, and he should develop into a solid every day second basemen.  He’s got the potential to be above average, but there’s also a bit of risk associated with him.  He’s got the job however, so he’s one of the safer choices under 25 years old.

27. Yuniesky Betancourt

28. Clint Barmes

29. Chin-lung Hu

30. Alberto Gonzalez

31. Brendan Harris

32. Nick Punto

33. Reid Brignac

34. Emmanuel Burriss

35. Alberto Callaspo

36. Nick Punto

37. Brent Lillibridge

38. Marco Scutaro

39. Jerry Hairston Jr.

40. Cody Ransom

The back end of these rankings needs work, but if you’re in a league this deep — you’re probably pretty knowledge about fantasy baseball.

Derek Jeter

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining Shortstops.

And now onto the ESPN shortstop rankings, which seem pretty solid at least at first glance.  There’s a few guys I’m not fans of, but they’re ranked in these spots by just about every expert.  They’ll probably perform at this level, and I’ll probably be wrong.  Regardless of such reality, I’ll rank ‘em where I think they’ll perform:

Rank	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	MIX$	AL/NL$	UP/DWN
1	1	Hanley Ramirez	FLA	SS	38	40
There’s always an argument for not taking someone first, but this year Hanley seems like a sure-fire bet for number 1 in all leagues.
2	4	Jose Reyes	NYM	SS	35	35
Hopefully the power will come, all the signs were there and then he fell flat on his face. If he adds the power so many scouts said he had him in, he’ll rival hanley.
3	9	Jimmy Rollins	PHI	SS	31	34
Rollins had a nasty year last year, and the only thing that saved him were those stolen bases. I’d expect somewhat of an improvement across the board, which’ll be offset by a dip in speed numbers
4	65	Derek Jeter	NYY	SS	12	24	DOWN
I’m not a Jeter fan, but he does put up numbers across the board. He’ll undoubtedly go too high in your league, but batting early in that New York line-up will help his R and probably his RBI totals too. The loss of A-Rod hurt him though.
5	70	Rafael Furcal	LAD	SS	10	24
Furcal’s just gotta stay healthy and he’d easily come in at 3rd overall on this list. He’s a perfect power/speed combo but has as many injury concerns as anyone in the league
6	78	Stephen Drew	ARI	SS	9	23	DOWN
I’m on the fence with Drew. He’s young and there’s lots of room for improvement, but there’s also plenty of room for him to be a bust this year before going on to have a long prosperous career. Last year’s .291 average shouldn’t be expected again. Think more in the .275 range.
7	88	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	SS	8	20	UP
Tulo should rebound nicely after last years abysmal start. 8HR and .263 isn’t Tulowitzki. Think closer to 20HR with a .290 average. Could be a steal, but like Drew could also fall flat on his face
8	105	Michael Young	TEX	SS	7	20	DOWN
Young’s moved over to third to allow the speedster Andrus to get AB. While Young was never a defensively gifted SS, the move to a somewhat less demanding position defensively should help prolong his career. Texas’ line-up is always fun to watch, and expecting the same as last year seems about right. Somewhere around .300 with about 15 HR seems reasonable.
9	130	J.J. Hardy	MIL	SS	5	16	DOWN
25HR, .275 BA, and about 80-85 Runs and RBIs seems reasonable. Hardy’s one of the better RBI producing Shortstops, if you skimped in the power-positions.
10	139	Jhonny Peralta	CLE	SS	5	17	UP
Another RBI man, Peralta has been up and down the last few years but he’s starting to level off into a consisent run-producing machine. Peralta doesn’t steal though, and this may pose a problem if you haven’t grabbed speed elsewhere. In the ballpark of 100 Runs and 85RBI with 20 HR is as good as it gets at the position though.
11	159	Mike Aviles	KC	2B/SS	4	15	DOWN
I’m not sure why I dislike Aviles so much, he hasn’t done anything wrong. His Minor League numbers show his .330 AVG wasn’t out of the blue but – Never Bet the Farm On BA, and that .359 BABIP is gaudy. When the end of the year rolls around you should be happy that Aviles hit .295 with 70 each of RBI and RBI, and maybe 10-15HR. He could go for 20 if all the stars align, I guess.
12	166	Miguel Tejada	HOU	SS	3	13
It looks like Tejada is going to get off with just probation for his little escapade. I wont get into how much bullshit that is, but Tejada does what he does and the Astros are a better team for it. The Days of 30HR are over, but there’s probably still a 10 percent shot of an insane year. In a perfect world, we’re insanely happy with 23-24 HR to go with 80 of R&RBI. Realistically, 20 HR and 75 of each seems right.
13	176	Ryan Theriot	CHC	SS	3	13	DOWN
Somethings things look too good to be true, and Theriot is one of them. The .307 Average is bound to drop, 22 SB is nothing to write home about and his Run numbers will free-fall if he cant get on base. There’s a lot of Theriot bashing going on over at Fangraphs, but that BABIP vs. Expected BA really stands out…330 vs 290. You think he’ll free-fall?
14	204	Jason Bartlett	TAM	SS	1	11	DOWN
How much is 20 SB worth to you? With Bartlett, you’re getting an extra 15 SB over the no-stealers above him, but you’re sacramenting everything else. .280, 60 Runs, 50 RBI with a .280ish average. Bartlett is however a possible break out player and realistically just needs to move himself up in the line-up to have great value. Unfortunately, with Upton, Crawford and Iwamura up there, the odds of movin’ on up are slim.
15	215	Orlando Cabrera	OAK	SS	1	10	UP
Cabrera’s a great fit in a very improved Oakland offense. Move him up more than a couple spots. He may be the biggest asshole money can buy, but 80 Runs and 70 RBI seem about right depending on where he hits. He’s always been at least an average base-stealer, and so long as he doesn’t start getting nabbed all the time – he’ll steal 15-20.
16	232	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS	1	10
Speed Kills and it better, because at this point Andrus doesn’t have anything else. Even if he takes up the rear of the Rangers batting order, he’ll still score runs. 65Runs, and say 45-50RBI is about right… and then BAM, if he’s allowed to run he’ll steal 40-50.
17	255	Jed Lowrie	BOS	SS/3B	$-	10	DOWN
I’m not a fan of Average Lowrie. Everything about him screams average, to slightly above average. There’s a shot Lugo still takes his job. Whoever wins the job will put up good, solid, numbers in the Red Sox lineup.
18	263	Cristian Guzman	WAS	SS	$-	8
Guzman got on base at a ridiculous clip last year. If he bats lead-off again this year, and maintains his silly-stupid leadoff skills he’ll be a top 12 SS. Unfortunately nothing leads us to believe that Guzman can do what he did last year again. I like Guzman as a boom/bust type in that improved Nat’s lineup.
19	276	Yunel Escobar	ATL	SS	$-	7	UP
There’s nothing not to love about a guy who walks as much as he strikes out, while hitting .300. Escobar will put up a nice OBP if that’s your thing. He wont run much, but 10 HR and 70R/60RBI seems about right.
20	285	Khalil Greene	STL	SS	$-	6	UP
My favourite sleeper, or at least one of them. Over the past 3 or 4 years, I’ve grown to hate Khalil Greene and his infinite talent with all of my soul. I figure a change of scenery may actually help him, and while he’s killing spring training pitching I wouldn’t move him up too high. That BA will kill you even if he ups it to .260
21	291	Brandon Wood	LAA	SS/3B	$-	8
One day Wood is going to get a shot to prove his worth without feeling like he could be sent down after an 0/4 performance. I think if Wood ever gets a fair shot, he’ll eventually develop into what everyone thought he’d become. This year, I just cant see where he’ll play unless someone gets hurt. Someone always gets hurt though.
22	296	Clint Barmes	COL	2B/SS	$-	6
Do not like Barmes, at all.
23	300	Asdrubal Cabrera	CLE	2B/SS	$-	8	UP
Do Like Cabrera, a lot. A healthy clean-up hitter, a healthy Cleveland line-up = sneaky good numbers for Cabrera.
24	318	Erick Aybar	LAA	SS	$-	7
Well, someone’s gotta play short and I’d rather have Aybar over Izturis.
25	322	Edgar Renteria	SF	SS	$-	5	UP
Awful San Fran line-up but Edgar deserves to be a smidgen higher. He should bat early, and big ‘ol Bengie Molina will drive him in.
26	331	Yuniesky Betancourt	SEA	SS	$-	6
27	344	Jerry Hairston Jr.	CIN	SS/OF	$-	5	UP
I like Hairston a lot, he had a great year last year in limited action and it looks like that’ll be the case this year too. He’s quick, and’ll steal bases. Dickerson looks to have the LF job on lock-down, but he could falter. Hairston’s versatility makes him useful in almost any league.
28	348	Julio Lugo	BOS	SS	$-	5
Awful BA, could steal some, will score some. Watch the Lugo/Lowrie situation unfold, LIVE on mlb.com
29	370	Jeff Keppinger	CIN	SS	$-	4
…never bank on BA for value
30	377	Emmanuel Burriss	SF	2B/SS	$-	4
Speed is nice. Frandsen is not.
31	381	Cesar Izturis	BAL	SS	$-	5
An Age’d Freddy Bynum
32	393	Maicer Izturis	LAA	2B/SS	$-	4
Could steal some…
33	395	Alex Gonzalez	CIN	SS	$-	3
No thank you.
34	466	Aaron Miles	CHC	2B/SS	$-	2
35	472	Nick Punto	MIN	2B/SS	$-	2	UP
Punto should go higher, as he’ll get his AB.
36	476	Nomar Garciaparra	OAK	SS	$-	2
37	479	Brendan Harris	MIN	2B/SS/3B	$-	2
38	487	Brendan Ryan	STL	2B/SS	$-	1
39	517	Bobby Crosby	OAK	SS	$-	2
Thank God the Bobby Crosby Experiment is over. I hear he’s learning second base now!
40	522	Ben Zobrist	TAM	SS/OF	$-	2
41	524	Jack Wilson	PIT	SS	$-	1
42	527	Marco Scutaro	TOR	2B/SS/3B	$-	1
Hrm, move him up a smidgen.
43	528	David Eckstein	SD	SS	$-	1
44	534	Gordon Beckham	CHW	SS	$-	1
If he plays this year, Chicago is on crack. I wrote a piece on him the other day, and while I love him – rushing him is an awful idea.
45	551	Tony Pena Jr.	KC	SS	$-	1
46	565	Angel Berroa	NYY	SS	$-	$-	UP
This one’s interesting. Move him up.
47	685	Ronny Cedeno	SEA	2B/SS	$-	1
48	735	Brian Bixler	PIT	SS	$-	$-
49	738	Brent Lillibridge	CHW	SS	$-	$-
50	754	Alcides Escobar	MIL	SS	$-	$-	UP
Nice place to end the rankings, but if Escobar plays I’d expect him to be higher than this. If Bill Hall continues to Bill Hall the situation, I’d expect Escobar to make his way into the line-up rather than Gamel. I think Hardy can play 3B – actually, it may be a pipe dream. Disregard.

ESPN hasn’t missed much with these rankings but,

Adam Everett – Detroit Tigers: While Everett brings the suck, he’s probably got a starting job save Ramon Santiago stealing a couple AB here and there.  In that Tigers line-up, everyone should have value.  Carlos Guillen’s days at shortstop are well over.

There’s a couple here and there, but I’m pretty satisfied with these rankings.

Derek Jeter

Fantasy Baseball Shortstop (SS) Rankings for 2009

The Fantasy Shortstop Position for the 2009 Fantasy Baseball season is deep enough.  There’s some solid value, and its incredibly top heavy — so you’ll pretty much get what you pay for.

If you’re lucky enough to get Hanley Ramirez, congrats.  Otherwise, it might be best to load up elsewhere and take a few high risk / reward type guys later in the draft.

As always, everything depends on your draft settings and league size.

1. Hanley Ramirez – Florida Marlins

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Hanley Ramirez	589	33	35	125	67	0.301	0.4	0.54	0.75	0.94

I cannot see a reason to not take Hanley Ramirez first overall. The freedom he gives you by combining HR/SB into a 30 / 30 season is unbelievable.

He’s young as hoot, but still has a .75 BB / K ratio to go with a .400 OBP and .940 OPS. There’s nothing to dislike here, except the team he’s on and ballpark he’s in.

He’ll continue to run so long as he plays on a bad team, and the Marlins lack of success may actually help Ramirez in the fantasy world.

2. Jose Reyes – New York Mets

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jose Reyes	688	16	56	113	68	0.297	0.358	0.475	0.8	0.833

After Reyes, there’s a huge drop off. Hanley Ramirez and Jose Reyes have proven to be legitimate first round picks who are guaranteed, pretty much, to stay healthy.

They’re both young, uber prospects, that don’t have that much wear on the tires.  Reyes, hopefully will throw 50-60 SB on the board this year.

Scouts have said that Reyes WILL develop power since double-A, single-A? Since a damn long time ago. As I dont enjoy disagreeing with scouts, especially when they start saying “5-tool player” — I’mma go ahead and finally mark Jose Reyes down for 24 HR and 50 Steals this  year.

3. Jimmy Rollins – Philadelphia Phillies

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jimmy Rollins	556	11	47	76	59	0.277	0.349	0.437	1.05	0.786

Rollins is just as good as the previous two, well almost.  He’s older, and more injury prone and had a shit-eating average last year, considering what owners expected (about .290)

The 47 stolen bases kept owners from mass-suicide last year, as Rollins only played in 137 games last year after about 7 years of 154 games, or more!

If Rollins stays healthy, he’s easily a late first round pick.  He’s a good risk/reward type guy in the early rounds, but isn’t the whole point of the early rounds, minimizing your risk?  That’s why you didn’t take Pujols first overall last year, right?

4. Stephen Drew – Arizona Diamondbacks

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Stephen Drew	611	21	3	91	67	0.291	0.333	0.502	0.38	0.836

You’re going to get, what you get.  Improvement will come with some movement in the batting order, along with the slight maturation you’d expect from a overly-hyped Drew brother.

You’re going to know pretty quickly what you’ve gotten with Stephen Drew.  Is he going to regress to his rookie-average of about .250? Or will Stephen Drew keep on, keeping on — rolling on with at least a .285 average.

No one will doubt that Drew’s got talent, but he’s got to keep his K rate below 20%

5. Johnny Peralta – Cleveland Indians

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jhonny Peralta	605	23	3	104	89	0.276	0.331	0.473	0.38	0.804

It looks like Peralta is a surefire bet for 20HR this season, after years of potential without results. Peralta finally cut down on his strike-out rate, which lead to an across the board improvement.  After years of a 25% rate of strike-outs, Peralta lowered it to a *reasonable* 20 percent.

2006 is starting to look like an aberration at this point rather than your regular Jhonny Peralta, which is a good deal for Peralta owners in dynasty leagues.

Cleveland should be interesting, to say the least, this year.  While I’m not certain as to whether or not Peralta will score 100+ runs again this year, he should do fine.  90 Runs and 90 RBI seems likely, if Peralta continues to bat in the top half of the line-up.

His strike-out rate will limit him to either the third, fifth, or sixth spot in the line-up — I’d imagine.  Peralta provides a good deal of value in the second tier of fantasy shortstops, and if you’re going to grab your stolen bases elsewhere — Peralta is a damn good deal, right here.

6. Rafael Furcal – Los Angeles Dodgers

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Rafael Furcal	143	5	8	34	16	0.357	0.439	0.573	1.18	1.012

Per Plate Appearance, Rafael Furcal had probably the best fantasy season out of all of the shortstops.  Unfortunately, Furcal only managed 143 AB to start and end the 2008 season.

I suppose this would be another referendum on whether or not you think Furcal will get to 140 Games played.  If Furcal plays, he’s going to put up super-shortstop numbers, and probably compete with the best in the business.

Thirty-Five Stolen Bases to go with 20 Home Runs isn’t out of the question, as Furcal is a marvelous talent.  In Los Angeles, particularly if Manny Ramirez is signed, Furcal will put up great Run totals, which is generally required from your MI.

Furcal is a great  boom/bust prospect to combine with a safety-pick later in the draft.  You can live with someone like Nick Punto for 250 AB, if you get 400 AB from Furcal.

7. Troy Tulowitzki – Colorado Rockies

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Troy Tulowitzki	377	8	1	48	46	0.263	0.332	0.401	0.68	0.732

Tulo was probably the most dissappointing fantasy draft-pick of all, last year.  He eventually put everything together around the end of the season and started putting up at least half decent numbers.

As with all of the younger shortstops, Tulowitzki is going to have some serious ups and downs.  Unlike the other shortstops though, Troy Tulowitzki’s glove will keep him in the line-up through slumps.  This is both good and bad: He’ll have a chance to fight through the slumps, but he’ll also put up some awful numbers and possibly kill your batting average, if the slump goes on for too long.

8. J.J. Hardy – Milwaukee Brewers

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
J.J. Hardy	569	24	2	78	74	0.283	0.343	0.478	0.53	0.821

Hot. Cold. Hot. Cold. I dont have much to say about J.J. Hardy other than the fact his SLG percentage should be in the high 400’s which is nice for your shortstop, but he wont steal bases.

You can pretty much assume that Hardy is going to put up 25 homers to go with a respectable .275 BA.  You could do a lot worse than Hardy.  His R / RBI numbers should stay in the same ball-park as last year, but that Brewers line-up has the potential for a huge increase in production if Fielder gets going and Weeks matures.

Hardy’s a pretty safe pick, with a bit of upside.  Owning him will definitely require some patience though — Just make sure to never click the “Stats for this Month” button when Hardy is slumping.

9. Derek Jeter – New York Yankees

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Derek Jeter	596	11	11	88	69	0.3	0.363	0.408	0.61	0.771

Jeter was once massively overrated, and now he’s underrated.  Its hard to value Jeter properly as he doesn’t do anything particularly well.  There are roughly three million players that can put up 10 SB to go with 10 HR, so he’s really not all that impressive.

A couple years ago, Jeter decided to put up 34 SB to go with a .343 average and 14  homers which was absolutely top-tier but he’s been declining since.

Normally you don’t refer to a players potential when he’s 34 years old, but that’s exactly what you get with Jeter. If you’re playing with guys who know their shit, Jeter has some serious value, as they probably despise him for being overrated for so long.

Anyways, Jeter has the potential to go for 15HR and 20+ SB, and the Run and RBI totals are always going to be there along with a guaranteed .300+ average.

Snag Jeter if he falls too far, as he’s probably in for a redemption year.

10. Michael Young – Texas Rangers

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Michael Young	645	12	10	102	82	0.284	0.339	0.402	0.5	0.741

I really see Jeter and Michael Young putting up identical numbers.  You should expect round ’bout 15 Home Runs, 10 Stolen Bases, a great batting average, and great run and rbi totals.

Young’s solid, and I’m sure that he’ll regain his .300+ batting average in 2009.  2008 was okay, but I’d expect 2009 to be a bit better than *okay*

There are a few indicators that he may be in for a steep decline, however. His Line Drive rate dropped drastically from 27 percent to 22 percent.  He started striking out more, notching his second 16% K rate after averaging about 13% during his prime years.  He just seems to be forcing it, and whether or not he played through a minor injury last year, or has just noticed his skills diminishing is up in the air.

10.5 Elvis Andrus – Texas Rangers

I featured Andrus here, in a Welcome to the Hype Machine post.  Andrus should steal plenty of bases and not kill you in the other categories.  His lack of natural power, really sits well in this spot as no one can really bang the bombs at this point.

11. Miguel Tejada – Houston Astros

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Miguel Tejada	632	13	7	92	66	0.283	0.314	0.415	0.33	0.729

Getting old, too old: 15 HR, 5 SB, 90 R, 75 RBI, .280 average.  He’s still very much roster-able, but he’s not going to start regaining his early 2000’s form where he was knocking out 30 HR each and every year.

12. Orlando Cabrera – Free Agent

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Orlando Cabrera	661	8	19	93	57	0.281	0.334	0.371	0.79	0.705

The Skills are still there, I just dont know where he’ll land.  He’s apparently a giant ass-hat, but he’ll do whatever’s asked of him, and he’s very much more concerned with his personal stat-line than team success — which is exactly what you want from your fantasy short-stop.

Great Value at this spot.

13. Yunel Escobar – Atlanta Braves

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Yunel Escobar	514	10	2	71	60	0.288	0.366	0.401	0.95	0.766

Escobar is my type of player, and with the Braves new pitching staff — he should help them contend for the NL East.

Yunel Escobar walks just about as much as he strikes out, and he gets on-base. Escobar’s splits when it comes to LD, FB, GB were quite interesting.  His LD rate should be floating around 20 percent, but last year he hiked his GB rate to a silly 59 percent which resulted in a 17 percent LD rate.

His fangraphs page is here, and it’s interesting to look at these stats because he’s definitely not going to put up the same numbers as last year.  He’s either going down a chunk, or up a chunk — I just have no clue how to interpret these numbers.

14. Khalil Greene – St. Louis Cardinals

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Khalil Greene	389	10	5	30	35	0.213	0.26	0.339	0.22	0.599

I’m going to hell for this, but Khalil Greene has a huge bounce back year. He’ll hit 25 home runs, and have quite possibly the longest Ball-Park-Effect induced orgasm in the history of man.

And, yes there’s more, Khalil Greene will hit .260.

And, cure cancer.

And, steal 12 bases.

15. Ryan Theriot- Chicago Cubs

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Theriot	580	1	22	85	38	0.307	0.387	0.359	1.26	0.745

Plays for the Cubs and gets on base.

When on base, will steal between 20-30 times.

That is all you really need to know.  Theriot could be a steal this year, especially if he grows his mullet out a smidgen more.

16. Christian Guzman – Washington Nationals

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Cristian Guzman	579	9	6	77	55	0.316	0.345	0.44	0.4	0.786

While playing fantasy baseball last year in a fairly shallow league, Christian Guzman’s name just kept popping up.  I’m not sure how the hell Guzman put up that kind of batting average even though his 50 game performance of 2007 showed he had it in him.

But, C’mon — it’s Christian Guzman we’re talking about here. The guy who steals 30 bases and hits .250, if you’re lucky.

If only all of the young, speedy, shortstops aged like this.  Once your legs are too old to steal 30 bases, you go and start hitting .320.

Stupid Christian Guzman. Washington has a decent enough offense to knock in Guzman 85 times in 2009 and if Guzman manages to get more than 140 games under his belt, he could put up some stellar numbers.

17. Edgar Renteria – San Francisco Giants

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Edgar Renteria	503	10	6	69	55	0.27	0.317	0.382	0.58	0.699

Renteria is useful enough, and on a real bad San Fran team, he should start running a bit more.  At this point in the short-stop rankings, value comes down to a solid contribution in one or two categories while not sinking the ship in the rest of the categories.

In a PERFECT world, Renteria puts up 75 Runs, 70 RBI, bops 14 home runs, steals 18 bases, and hits .280.

18. Jerry Hairston Jr. – Cincinnati Reds

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jerry Hairston	261	6	15	47	36	0.326	0.384	0.487	0.64	0.871

Hairston put up great numbers in limited action last year, and it looks like he has the inside gig on the starting left-field job.

Of course, Hairston Jr. isn’t going to put up an .870!!! OPS again this year, that’s just ridiculous for a light hitting journey-man  second baseman.

BUT! he’ll steal some bases on a fairly young Cinci team, and all the rest of the stats are double double extra bonus bonus!

19. Mike Aviles – Kansas City Royals

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mike Aviles	419	10	8	68	51	0.325	0.354	0.48	0.31	0.833

I’m not particularly high on Aviles, as he came out of absolute obscurity to put up great triple-A numbers in 2008. Then, as is always the case, those numbers predicted future major league success perfectly and Aviles is now a future HOFer.

Anyways, something just doesn’t add up for me, and 400 major league at-bats isn’t nowhere near enough AB to deduce a players true talent level.  If I recall correctly, 600 AB is when the numbers start becoming meaningful.

20. Jed Lowrie – Boston Red Sox

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jed Lowrie	260	2	1	34	46	0.258	0.339	0.4	0.51	0.739

Uh, he’s in the Red Sox line-up and even if he bats 8th or 9th, he’ll be a useful source of Runs and RBI. Sure Lowrie has some potential, but not enough to start for most fantasy teams.

I’m sure someone in your league, who adores the Red Sox, will draft him though.  Pedroia showed last year that you don’t have to be the most talented player to succeed in that line-up, you just have to get on base.  If Lowrie can raise his OBP to .350, and his average to .270 — he’ll be very serviceable.

21. Marco Scutaro – Toronto Blue Jays

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Marco Scutaro	517	7	7	76	60	0.267	0.341	0.356	0.88	0.697

As much as I hate J.P. Ricciardi, picking up Scutaro was probably one of his better moves.  Scutaro can be plugged in just about anywhere and I was more than surprised to see him put up 75 Runs in the powerless Toronto Blue Jays line-up.

If Aaron Hill ever gets over his concussion, Scutaro is going to lose some at-bats to the completely useless John McDonald.  I wonder how deep your league would have to be to roster John McDonald — someone get back to me on this.

22. Jason Bartlett – Tampa Bay Rays

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jason Bartlett	454	1	20	48	37	0.286	0.329	0.361	0.32	0.69

Barlett isn’t anything special in the fantasy world, but he was a huge part of the Tampa Bay Rays run to the world series. I still like the Garza/Bartlett trade for both sides, and Bartlett will continue to produce.

The Steals are nice and make him roster-able.  Getting 20 – 30 Steals late in a draft on the cheap is generally a good idea: A better idea than drafting a minor leaguer with heaps of potential, in most cases.

23. Nick Punto – Minnesota Twins

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Punto	338	2	15	43	28	0.284	0.344	0.382	0.56	0.726

I like utility men quite a bit. Scutaro in Toronto and Ryan Freel in Baltimore now, are always more useful on the field than in the fantasy world.  Anyways, Punto has the ability to steal 25 bases and hit .285-.290 if he plays every day.

The Twins did well resigning him after letting him go, and i’m surprised that no one else expressed serious interest.  Keep Punto on your radar as he’ll prove to be useful throughout the season.

The problem with utility men is keeping track of when they’re playing and when they’re sitting on their buts, and nothing is worse than wasting a game on someone who’s not playing.

24. Clint Barmes- Colorado Rockies

Name	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Clint Barmes	393	11	13	47	44	0.29	0.322	0.468	0.25	0.79

Well, he plays in Coors but he doesn’t particularly have a choke hold on the position.  If he plays, he plays and he should put up half decent numbers.  Barmes is either batting atop the Rockies line-up or right before the pitcher, so keep an eye on how this plays out.  He may be a nice late round pick-up, for the first chunk of the season at least until Stewart steals the second base job.

The Rest of The Rest, Complete With A Couple Guys To Keep An Eye On.

Yuniesky Betancourt - doesn’t contribute particularly well, nor does he steal bases.  His average will probably flutter in the wind, and land somewhere around .275.  He wont hurt you too bad, but he definitely wont help you.

Wilson Betemit – I like Wilson Betemit, and I’d imagine he’d find himself a spot somewhere in that White Sox day-to-day lineup.  Whether Fields fails, or Ramirez goes to second and Wilson plays short — he should get a shot.  If he does, he’s got the potential to put up some half decent numbers.

Bobby Crosby – Un-Ownable.  Once a top tier prospect, now he’s the constant producer of an awful BA. You never know though, sometimes these prospects shit the bed for years and then wake up and realize that they should be hitting 25 HR, and do so.

Brendan Harris – Not sure where he plays, I’m figuring on third with Punto at SS, but who knows.  He’s decent enough but doesn’t have Punto’s speed.  Come to think of it, Punto would probably be better served playing third with Harris at short.  Who knows.

The Anaheim Angeles of Los Angeles, Huh? Aybar and Izturis - 25 Steals. A .260 average. Enjoy you, Enjoy.

Jeff Keppinger – Uhh, he’s got to get a shit-tonne of Plate Appearances to have any value, at all. Those Walks add 50 pts in OBP.

Ben Zobrist – I’m not certain whats up with the OF situation in Tampa.  Zobrist should get in at least 120 games at one position or another.  Could be worth a look.

Emmanueal Burriss - might get some playing time at second, could be worth a long look.

Brandon Wood – The next Bobby Crosby?  Wood’s got a load of power, but just about everything else needs work.  I dont see how the Angels could actually play a game with him at short, but when Wood does put it together, he should be a bopper.

And to think just a couple years ago, I liked Brandon Wood more than Stephen Drew.

Ryan Freel - Set him free.