“If we ever did get to that point, we’d want a boatload. And I don’t know whether anyone would offer a boatload. But obviously, we’re not at that point.”

Shortly after that interview was published, a trade was approved by the MLB:

Keith Law thinks the Cubans gave up too much

Toronto gets somewhere between 10 and 15 Cuban defectors, while Cuba gets a proven ace in Roy Halladay.  Once an international power-house, Cuba’s slumped lately and believe that Halladay can help them defeat those pesky AZNs.

The Jays also think they’ve made out like bandits:  “I realize some of these guys might not work out,” said Ricciardi, noted douchebag, “but realistically, we’re just looking for spare parts. One, maybe two, guys pan out — great!  Our plan all along has been to harvest their ligaments and tendons before sending them back to Cuba.  Shaun needs one, Dustin could use one, B.J.’s probably going to need at least 3 or 4…”

Ricciardi believes this could be a long and mutually beneficial relationship between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Cuban National team: “…something along the lines of what Billy Beane and I have going,” gleefully sang Ricciardi.

Ricciardi refused to comment on speculations that he was harvesting two or three pairs of eyes for Braves’ slugger, Brian McCann.

The White Sox nailed Ramirez down with a 4 year deal paying 4.75 million of its course.  At this point, the White Sox have already paid for Ramirez with the super-rookie season he turned in.  Ramirez is a tad on the old-side for a prospect, as he’s already 27, but he’s made the transition to the MLB perfectly.

Ramirez can play Shortstop, Second Base, and some Outfield.  He doesn’t particularly play any of those positions well, but his above-average athletic ability makes him passable at all of these positions.  Ramirez has stated he feels most comfortable playing Shortstop, and this looks like where he’s going to start 2009.

Onto the stats and the corresponding Scouting Report for Alexei Ramirez.

Four things stand out:

1. 21 Home Runs in 480 AB from the MI position
2. 13 Stolen bases even if he was caught 9 times
3. A .290 Average with only a .317 OBP which means an AWFUL 3.6% BB rate
4. He Swings at everything: 59.9% Swing Rate, 42.7% Outside the Zone Swing Rate

Chicago, we’ve got a problem. Generally, a players physical skills begin to peak at around the age of 27 and you get to the point where you are what you are. Alexei Ramirez definitely has some leeway with regards to this, as he’s only spent a year in the MLB.  You should know by August, whether or not his bad habits have caught up to him.

But August doesn’t help you, as fantasy leagues don’t draft in August.

Alexei Ramirez’s BABIP seems about right sitting at .296, for someone with his Line Drive Rate (16.6%) and his Swing Rate (59.9%).

When you look at players with 400 AB, Ramirez ranks only behind Vladimir Guerrero for swing percentage.  Delmon Young, Jeff Franceour, Bengi Molina, and Josh Hamilton are other notables with a Swing Percentage above 55 percent. Alexei Ramirez does make contact at an 81.4% clip, which is right in line with Guerrero.

Ramirez has garnered quite a few comparisons to another second baseman turned outfielder, that he mirrors physically: Alfonso Soriano.  Soriano comes in at 6’1 – 180lbs, while Ramirez is 6’3″ – 185lbs.

Soriano’s 54 percent Swing Rate is not much better than Ramirez’s 60 percent, so it appears the comparisons seem about right. In 2007 Soriano did swing at about 60 percent of pitches, so the difference is more than likely marginal.

In Soriano’s first full season (2001) when he was 25 years old he put up very similiar statistics to Ramirez.

First off, all the usual caveats apply. Different eras, Different players, only a year for a sample size, etc etc.

Soriano clearly has more advanced base running skills than Ramirez, but I’d argue that the difference in pure speed isn’t as great as the stolen base numbers project. Soriano isn’t a great pure base-stealer to begin with, so Alexei Ramirez really needs some work to improve on his sub-60 percent success rate.

Other than that, everything favors Alexei Ramirez. While Alexei Ramirez’s OBP is an awful .317, Soriano got by with a .304. Soriano did have a slightly better WALK rate, notching an awful 4.8% it’s really not that much better than Ramirez’s 3.6%. In Soriano’s next year, one of his best years, he only walked 3.2% of the time.

There is a difference in K rate however, which favours Ramirez.  Soriano put up a 22-percent K-rate while Ramirez put up a respectable 13%.  Combine that with Ramirez’s slightly better SLG percentage and Batting Average and we’ve got ourselves a pretty good comparison.

So what did Soriano do after his first full season?

While it’s probably ridiculous to expect 39 Home Runs, 128 R, 102 RBI, 41 SB, a .300 average, and a .880 OPS percentage — Short of the SB, it is possible.

Conclusion:

Alexei Ramirez has so many layers to him, and whether or not you consider him a sleeper depends on how deep you dig. If you just look at last year and expect him to improve on his rookie numbers, that may be a bit ignorant considering his hacking ways and low walk rate.

If you peel the layers back, you’ll notice that all signs point to him showing a lot of bad signs going forward.  Whether it’s the Walk Rate, The Swing Rate, The Base Running Skills or his label as a “fastball hitter”.  Pitchers will adapt to him, and start throwing him more junk if he’s swinging at everything. Can he adapt?

If you pull the layers all the way, you see that it’s indeed possible for a player with Ramirez’s skill set to make use of it.  While he wont hit 40 HR, he does have the raw power and bat-speed to make pitchers pay for mistakes.  Maybe he follows the career path of Soriano, and dominants before getting shifted to the outfield.  On the other hand, maybe he flops.

Verdict: Feed the Hype-Machine, but draft a safe back-up plan. If Pitchers get the book on Ramirez he’s going to fail, and fail badly. With shortstop being so deep, you can pick up a cheap 2-category guy as an insurance plan. Whether that’s stolen bases and runs, or batting average and mild production across the board — is up to you.

Photo Courtesy of Kimberly / Flickr