One of my favorite things to do early in the season is place small, rather arbitrary, but well-researched bets on win-total over/unders at Bodog’s Sportsbook.

First up, the NL West Projected Win Totals:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Line: Over/Under @ 72.5 WINS

2010 Wins: 65 Wins

2010 Expected Wins: 68

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 75 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 73.8 WINS

GUT FEELING: Under

Subtractions: Daren Haren and Edwin Jackson were two huge pieces early on, but finished 2010 on different clubs. Adam LaRoche and Brandon Webb were the only notables to leave during the off-season. Mark Reynolds was traded to the O’s.

Additions: Henry Blanco, Willie Bloomquist, Geoff Blum, Melvin Mora, Xavier Nady, J.J. Putz, Armando Gallaraga.

Pitching: Without a proven number one, this could get interesting. Right now, it’s Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and Barry Enright. Zach Duke and Kevin Mulvey will battle Jarrod Parker ( Baseball America’s 33rd Ranked Prospect) for the back-end of the rotation. Daniel Hudson’s ridiculous LOB% of 91% is bound to regress. The bullpen is definitely a question mark even with the addition of hard-throwing David Hernandez from Baltimore.

Hitting: It’s all about Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton coming into their own while Kelly Johnson maintains his power. Unfortunately, Kelly Johnson isn’t going to hit 26HR again. Johnson’s 15.6% HR-to-FB rate is bound to regress to career norms and his ISO will follow. Chris Young’s power is also likely to regress a bit, but Justin Upton’s probably in line for a break-out campaign if he can play more than 130 games. Overall, this team isn’t much better than last year on the offensive side of the ball.

Conclusion: The Diamondbacks rivaled the Pirates for the worst pitching in the league last year and they’ve gotten worse. On the offensive side of the ball, they’re not getting that much better with the addition of Melvin Mora and Xavier Nady. The projection models get fuzzy around the edges. They hate telling you that you’re great, and hate telling you how much you suck. I vote UNDER.

Colorado Rockies

Line: Over/Under @ 86.5

2010 Wins: 83

2010 Expected Wins: 87

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 84 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 85.9 WINS

GUT FEELING: Under

Subtractions: Octavio Dotel, Jeff Francis, Melvin Mora, Clint Barmes, Miguel Olivo.

Additions: Ty Wigginton, Matt Lindstrom, Felipe Paulino, Jose Lopez.

Pitching: Ubaldo Jiminez broke through and Jhoulys Chacin may follow in his footsteps. A full season from Jorge De La Rosa, and Aaron Cook will definitely help. The end of the rotation remains essentially the same with Jason Hammel being Jason Hammel and a handful of high-WHIP fill ins. Colorado’s bullpen is still filled with a handful of very useful pitchers and Matt Lindstrom should help.

Hitting: Carlos Gonzalez is in for some huge regression with a .384 BABIP and a 20% HR-to-FB ratio, but his decline should be more than covered by the rest of the team. Ian Stewart should rebound and Troy Tulowitzki’s one of the best in the game. The addition of the streaky Jose Lopez should add some pop to the line-up and replace Mora without issue. Miguel Olivo had a great season, but Chris Ianetta has shown promise for the longest time and Wilin Rosario isn’t too far away.

Conclusion: I think Carlos Gonzalez’s regression will hurt and Todd Helton isn’t getting any younger, but this is going to be close, real close. Let’s go UNDER, but just barely.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Line: Over/Under @ 84

2010 Wins: 80

2010 Expected Wins: 78

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 87 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 83.3 WINS

GUT FEELING: Over

Subtractions: Reed Johnson, Russell Martin, George Sherrill, Manny Ramirez

Additions: Jon Garland, Matt Guerrier, Tony Gwynn Jr., Gabe Kapler, Ron Mahay, Dioner Navarro, Juan Uribe, Eugenio Velez

Pitching: This is one of the best starting rotations out there. Kershaw, Garland and Billingsley are all sure things and Ted Lilly is pretty close even if he doesn’t get a full season in. Kuroda has shown flashes and Padilla’s been around long enough to be a capable fifth starter. Last year Ely filled in nicely and at some point he’ll be called upon to do it again. The addition of Guerrier helps the club immensely and Kuo provides a great lefty-bridge to Broxton. Belisario’s still got a great arm and Ely can pitch.

Hitting: Even with the loss of Manny and Martin, the club’s still in great shape. Either should get a full season under his belt and Kemp’s one of the best youngster’s in the business. Tony Gywnn Jr., Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames provide the Dodgers with a bunch of flexibility in the outfield. When Raffy Furcal is healthy, he’s one of the best in the business….still. Navarro and Barajas should come fairly close to replacing Martin. Juan Uribe over Jamey Carroll isn’t a huge deal, but it’s something.

Conclusion: I think the pitching brings this team OVER.

San Diego Padres

Line: Over/Under @ 75.5

2010 Wins: 90

2010 Expected Wins: 92

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 80 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 81.2 WINS

GUT FEELING: Over

Subtractions: Jason Barlett, Kevin Correia, David Eckstein, Jon Garland, Tony Gwynn, Scott Hairston, Jerry Hairston, Matt Stairs, Chris Young, Miguel Tejada

Additions: Jorge Cantu, Kevin Frandsen, Aaron Harang, Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson, Dustin Moseley, Chad Qualls, Gregg Zaun, Eric Patterson, Cameron Maybin

Injury: Kyle Blanks questioning to start season. Zaun out until early March.

Pitching: The loss of Garland hurts, but Aaron Harang is a very capable replacement. Mat Latos is one of the best young pitchers in the business. Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, Wade LeBlanc and Cory Luebke fill out the possible starters, but Simon Castro is a beast. By no means a great staff, but a competent 1-2. The Bullpen provides a nice pick-me-up.

Hitting: PETCO Park isn’t exactly a hitting paradise, but the Padres have added some pop. Jason Barlett is a slight upgrade at SS over Everth Cabrera, but don’t expect the Bartlett of yesteryear. Chase Headley should continue to improve and Ryan Ludwick, Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu should provide added pop. I’m huge on Will Venable and think that Maybin might play a competent center-field.

Conclusion: Definitely not the 90-win squad, but certainly better than a 76W team.

San Francisco Giants

Line: Over/Under @ 88.5 WINS

2010 Wins: 92 Wins

2010 Expected Wins: 95

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 90 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 84.2 WINS

GUT FEELING: OVER

Subtractions: Chris Ray, Edgar Renterio, Juan Uribe, Eugenio Velez, Kevin Frandsen

Additions: Elmer Dessens, Jeff Suppan, Miguel Tejada,

Pitching: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner and Barry Zito. Crazy Todd Wellemeyer’s been inked again to a minor league deal.

Hitting: The pieces are still in place and Buster Posey has a year of experience. Pablo Sandoval should have a bounce back year even if Aubrey Huff and Andres Torress return to earth. This isn’t a killer offense, but they don’t have to produce to be effective. The Giants were in the middle of the pack last year with Runs scored and that shouldn’t change.

Conclusion: The team isn’t exactly built to deal with a prolonged injury to any one of it’s pitching stars but all things being equal, I’m going to go with OVER.

After missing the entire 2008 season, Jeff Francis pitched a dandy against the… Washington Nationals.  Wait, you’re telling me that the Nationals have scored one fewer run than the Cardinals and two fewer than the Angels?  That’s what you get for wearing a White Sox cap to the Natty’s opener, Mr. Obama.  Karma, my friend, karma.

Francis put together seven solid innings of one-run ball on his way to striking out six and walking a pair of Nats’ hitters.  Realistically, the outcome and the opponent aren’t all that important.  What is important is Francis’ velocity — he hasn’t lost a step, averaged 88mph on his fastball — and his control on the off-speed stuff.

Francis located well and had terrific movement on his deadly change-up and a tad of extra sink on the fastball.  A third of his pitches last night were change-ups and almost half were off-speed non-fastballs.

Going forward, other than the injury risk, Francis looks like a damn solid option in deeper leagues.

There’s no harm giving Francis a try, his next start is against Kansas City after all.

With the season about 15 games old, I figured it was time to take a peak at the numbers, even if they’re not all that meaningful.  Numbers are numbers, and I love numbers.

First up, F-Strike Percentage, or the percentage of first-pitch strikes.  The talking heads will always preach the importance of getting that first strike for a pitcher.  Depending on how you interpret that, they’re definitely onto something: it doesn’t mean you should *throw* a strike, but getting a strike is definitely beneficial.

With that said, there are a few terrific hitters that absolutely love first-pitch fastballs.  Ryan Braun and Hanley Ramirez come to mind.  They both put up 60-plus % F-Strike in 2009, but still swung at less than 50% of pitches.  The rule of thumb when interpreting F-Strike is:  You can make a high % work if you’re A) Patient or B) An absolute freak.

There’s no real way to quantify how Pablo Sandoval put together his 2009 season, or why Aaron Hill swung at everything, yet continued to see pitches in the strike-zone.  Some hitters are just able to get the bat through the zone quick enough to turn a potential negative into a positive.

With that said, there are some interesting numbers:

Carlos Gonzalez (71.4% F-Swing):  Everything about this kid is painful to watch.  I drafted Carlos Gonzalez in a keeper league this year, hoping for the best, but alas, he looks like 2009 CarGo all over again.  Gonzalez definitely falls into the “Freakishly Athletic” category and he could make his lack of discipline work.  However, he swings at damn near everything (30% O-Swing for the last 3 years — 37% This Year).  Gonzalez still hasn’t taken a SINGLE WALK, which isn’t a good sign.  CarGo’s absolutely destroying the fastball this year, which he’s been seeing about 50% of the time.  If it’s not the fastball though, CarGo struggles.

These are not great signs for CarGo, but before you overreact, remember it’s just 10 games.

Ian Stewart (40% F-Strike): Stewart’s currently ranked 30th in the standard Yahoo Fantasy League, but you may still be able to acquire the kid at a discounted price.  Thus far in 2010, everything Stewart’s done has been picture-perfect.  Stewart’s plate discipline in 2010 is up in every single category.  Unlike his teammate, Carlos Gonzalez, Stewart’s starting off At-Bats with strikes only 40% of the time.

The big question with Stewart, is whether or not he can maintain his reasonable 20% K-Rate.  In previous years, the one knock on Stewart has been his Strike-Out Rate where he topped 30% in each of his three MLB seasons.  While some may point to Stewart’s .361 BABIP, you should probably expect an above average number from Stewart.  Stewart’s been hitting the ball with authority, knocking 31% of his hits for line-drives; this wont continue, but it’s definitely a sign that the kid’s locked in.

Troy Tulowitzki (55% F-Strike): With CarGo at one end and Stewart at the other, Tulo sits at a happy medium when it comes to F-Strike%.  Tulo’s .269 Batting Average isn’t stellar, especially after he rocketed up draft-boards this spring.  The back-end of Tulowitzki’s plate discipline statistics is close enough to career averages to say that he’ll probably bounce back.  Watching him hit is another story, though.  Tulowitzki’s been having some serious issues with off-speed pitches in 2010 after making a living off them in previous years.  Other than a tiny sample size, there’s nothing to say that Tulowitzki just isn’t going through a slump.

I get the feeling of the bunch, Stewart’s going to provide the best value by a mile.  If he keeps his K-Rate down, he could be one of the better third basemen in 2010.

Putting yourself in an 0-and-1 count isn’t a great way to start off an at-bat, but there’s always a group of guys that succeed despite the set-back.  Gonzalez definitely has the tools to hit just about anything, so while all the signs point to a huge down-turn, he’s still capable of posting very solid numbers.  I wouldn’t be going out of my way to acquire the kid at this point because a slump’s on the horizon — unless of course, pitchers keep feeding him fastballs.

BDPP93, Tyler Matzek of the Colorado Rockies, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: This Might Blow Up (Sell..to Buy)

Projected Value: Great

I had a feeling that this might happen:  Matzek tops Baseball America’s list of Rockies Prospects.  This is kind of a bummer because the kid looked to slide by as a High+ type player, rather than a full-on superstar.

Matzek saw his value drop during draft day due to the dreaded “signability issue.”  Well, dreaded for baseball teams but terrific for people that invest cash in baseball cards.

The only question with this big lefty is his desire to be great.  Personally, I think the kid has it in ‘em to tear through the minors if Colorado lets ‘em go.  If they try and slow him down, preferring to actually teach him, rather than just usher him; Matzek might start sputtering.

The next question is Matzek’s value in Colorado.  There’s still a stigma surrounding Colorado, so you may actually get a shot to get his stuff 10% cheaper than you’d expect.

Christian Friederich ranked the number two prospect in Colorado’s system, and his red refractor sold for 76 dollars just the other week.

Matzek’s a step above Friederich, and his first Bowman Card’s going to be an autograph.  Combine that with the stir that’ll be caused by BA’s top 100 and the initial buzz of BDPP and you’ll have a card that you can sell now and probably get back in a little under a year for a better price.

Even if he starts in low-A, you’ll still have time to acquire the card before his name starts popping up in “the next big thing” conversations…

BDPP78, Tim Wheeler of the Colorado Rockies, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Probably Buying

Projected Value: Medium +

Wheeler and Brett Jackson seem to be linked at the hip: a shared hip that’s pretty athletically gifted.  Selected one spot after Jackson, Wheeler saw his draft stock slowly rise as he played out his final season.  It didn’t hurt that Tim Wheeler was willing to sign for 900K, either.

In the Northwest League, Wheeler played well enough for Baseball America to place him a couple slots below Jackson on their yearly round-up of the Short Season Leagues.

If Wheeler had slipped into the second round, beyond the prying eyes of the common-prospector, his cards might be a very solid investment piece.

As it stands, Wheeler is just an athletically gifted kid that’s worth keeping an eye on.  Everything’s there for Wheeler to develop into an above-average, everyday, outfielder for the Rockies.

There’s quite a bit of untapped power in his frame and the kid can run well.   Wheeler’s final season at Sacramento State really opened some eyes, but you’ve got to take it with a grain of salt.  Ignorant eyes will view his 1.200 OPS in the WAC as something to bust a nut over — Don’t get *too* excited.

Wheeler’s got potential though.  Better yet, Wheeler has the tools and the make-up to get a strong following.  He’s definitely capable of putting up the jaw-dropping power & speed numbers required to make it into hot-lists, and thus raise his value considerably.

As long as his prices don’t go crazy out of the gate, I’d recommend purchasing a few medium numbered refractors.

Carlos Gonzalez is a superior talent and will develop into a 25/25 or 35/15 player with superior defensive skills. This is of course true — IF — CarGo can get an idea of what the strike-zone is.

The sky is the limit with this guy, but the basement is not that pretty. We’re talking serial killer-type basement, with limbs in the freezer and Detroit Lions games  on a constant loop. We’re talking Wily Mo Pena + Juan Encarnacion + A Bit More Defense. 30% K-rate, and 5%-BB rate type basement.

Last year Baseball Prospectus came in with Carlos Gonzalez at 26th overall, while Baseball America had him at 22nd overall.  CarGo is a great player, but that strike-out rate and swing-rate are potential deal-breakers. Whether or not these two things are tied to skill level or just the lack of desire to improve is up for debate.

As I mentioned in the Dexter Fowler article, the Rockies outfield is crowded.  Right now, it looks like the left-field job is a toss up between Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith. While Gonzalez has more upside, it looks like S. Smith is more MLB-ready which I’ll get into in the next article.

Carlos Gonzalez: Statistically Speaking

So the table isn’t particularly beautiful, but it is courtesy of fangraphs.com. Open Office was unstoppable in converting 5% to .050, but it’s 9am on a Saturday so we’ll wage that war at a later point in time.

The Strike-Out Rate stands out, as Gonzalez constantly puts up about 25%. It’s somewhat comical that whenever there’s a small sample size warning, Gonzalez has cut down on his K-Rate. His walk rate is atrocious for someone who strikes out that much.

We’ve almost got all of the bad out of the way:  Carlos Gonzalez swings at everything, absolutely everything.  Dave Cameron over at fangraphs put together an analysis of Cargo and his absolutely ridiculous Swing Rate, and O-Swing Rate (how often does he swing at pitches outside the zone). I really can’t praise the gentlemen over at fangraphs enough for putting together smart analysis and putting together the stats in an easily readable package.

Carlos Gonzalez in the Venezuelan Winter League: A New Hope

Carlos Gonzalez Regular Season VWL numbers:

MLB LINK

The 21 strike-outs in 100 PA, seems about in-line with Gonzalez’s regular numbers but an 11% BB rate is a nice improvement.  When you follow it up with his playoff numbers, we might just be on to something.

Gonzalez’s Venezuelan WL Playoff Numbers

MLB LINK

Of course there is the requisite small sample size warning, but he walked 11 times in 14 games. Maybe Carlos is starting to come due, and understand the game?

Opportunity and Final Analysis

The Rockies starting left-fielder job is about an open a competition as there is. Currently Gonzalez is listed as the starting left-fielder, but other than Brad Hawpe in RF no-one’s assured a job. (CBS seems to have the most-updated Depth Charts, why? no-one knows)

Gonzalez could hold onto the job with a strong camp, but Major League Ready Seth Smith could also nab the job.  Matt Murton was once listed as one of the Cubs’ better prospects, so technically he’s also got a shot at the job.  If Dexter Fowler breaks camp with the starting CF job, there’s a chance that Clint Hurdle could even move Ryan Spillbroghs over to left. If Spillbroghs ends up in CF, Scott Podsednik may steal the LF job as the Rockies desperately need a lead-off hitter.

There’s probably a few more possibilities, but for the most part — those are the more likely scenarios.

I have Gonzalez listed as a top-100 OF, as odds are that he’ll break camp with the job.  We all know how hitter-friendly Coors Field is, and Gonzalez has pop.  Even if Gonzalez can get his BB-Rate up to 8 or 9 percent, it’ll make a 20 percent K-Rate more palatable.

Gonzalez has about a 75 percent chance of breaking camp with the job, and I’d imagine he’d bottom out at about 350AB.  The Rockies should be looking to shop one of their young outfielders, or veterans as the depth is nutty.

Carlos Gonzalez has the opportunity to put up top-30 OF numbers if everything goes well, but a more realistic goal is top-50.

Gonzalez is one of my favourite sleepers going into 2009, but the bust potential is massive.

If you buy Cargo’s hype, then you better have a back-up plan or at least have suitable replacements on the waiver-wire.  He could be a very nice late round gamble though as there are very few players that you can nab in the very late rounds that have the potential to put up early mid-round numbers. Most of them have already been through the ringer more than a few times and everyone in your fantasy league will know their name.

If you’re in a keeper league, regardless of Gonzalez’s Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ratings, he’s far from a sure thing.  The risk and reward is exponentially increased when you’re dealing with Gonzalez in a dynasty-type league. Devaluing Gonzalez in a dynasty league is probably a wise move as there are safer “top prospects”.

Photo Provided By Kimberly* Flickr

Dexter Fowler - COL - Dave Nelson Flickr

Dexter Fowler – Centerfielder – Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have put together the best of both worlds with their outfield.  It’s stacked with average to above-average veterans that will do an admirable job filling in until the youngsters come due.

The depth allowed them to trade away one of the best corner-outfielders in the game, in Matt Holliday.

The Veterans: Scott Podsednik, Ryan Spillbroghs, and Brad Hawpe.

The Rookies: Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Seth Smith.

The Inbetween-ers: Matt Murton, Chris Frey, Dan Ortmeier and Matt Miller

If you wanted to put together an outfield, this is a great way to go about doing so.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, the Rockies outfield depth may negatively effect any single prospects fantasy value.

Dexter Fowler — Center-field-prospect-extraordinare.

Baseball Prospectus, which I generally always use as my starting point, just released their 2009 top prospect rankings/ratings.  Fowler comes in at an improved 12th overall. Sandwiched between two uber-prospects in the Marlins organization, Cameron Maybin and Mike Stanton.

SKILLS AND STATS:

When scouts draw up a five-tool player, they draw up guys like Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones before he turned on the suck-switch.  These are the type of players that the scouts have compared Fowler to.  Defense doesn’t convert to fantasy value, so we’ll just huck that out.  While this probably lowers Fowler on the prospect list, he’s still a switch-hitting baller with speed to spare.

Much like Cameron Maybin, Fowler can steal a shit-tonne of bases if he’s given the opportunity.  The Raw speed isn’t in question — He does however need to work on his base running skills.  Luckily, getting caught stealing isn’t a negative in fantasy baseball.  The Rockies let Willy Tavares go, because even at such a young age Fowler can do everything that Tavares could.

At this point, Fowler’s power is still pretty raw and his ceiling is probably about 12-15 HR given a full-time gig.  Eventually Fowler will top out about 20 HR potential, which is just dandy for your lead-off man.  Fowler seems to understand that he’s being groomed for the CF-gig and has been using his power to pound doubles, rather than whack home-runs.

A quick note on Fowler’s picking up switch-hitting after an entire amateur career of only hitting from one side of the plate: WOW.  He’s kept his lefty-average over .275 which is darn impressive. The Gents over at baseball-intellect.com put together a nice piece on Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin — just remember, it was put together at the start of 2008 prior to Fowler’s ridiculous .946 OPS bounce-back season.

His Strike-Out Rate is a bit concerning, although he did improve on his 26% High-A rate posting a respectable 20% K-Rate in AA last year. A minor league BB-Rate of between 10-15 percent keeps his OBP at a very solid .400+

Forget about 2007, as 2006 and 2008 appear to be the real Dexter Fowler.

Opportunity

Looking at the remainder of the Rockies line-up, there’s really no typical lead-off hitter.  If Fowler gets the job, he’ll almost certainly lead the line-up off — which will result in a whole hoot of a lot of RUN opportunities.

Clint Barmes and Willy Tavares spent the majority of 2008 atop the Rockies line-up, and Tavares is in Cincinnati and Barmes may lose his job to Ian Stewart who is about as far from a lead-off hitter as you can get.

Right now, it’s looking like the Rockies can either lead off with Spillbroghs or Fowler and it’ll be interesting to see how it pans out.

Maybe Seth Smith is more Major League ready at this point, but he’s not a lead-off hitter.  Carlos Gonzalez is still swinging at everything, and striking out too much — which is unfortunate.

Watch Fowler in the pre-season, as he could use at least a few months in Triple-A.  Unfortunately with the depth the Rockies have in the OF, a slump may relegate Fowler to the minors for a few months of seasoning.

Conclusion

If you’re in a deep league, consider Fowler. His upside is equal to that of Cameron Maybin who’s been flying off draft-boards.  A slump is almost inevitable, and impatient owners will more than likely drop him. If you can afford the roster-spot, he’s definitely worth the gamble.  Even with limited at-bats in 2009, he’ll produce in at least the stolen base category.

Maybe Fowler isn’t worth a starting spot in your line-up at this point, but he should be the first guy off your bench.

Buy the Hype.

Even if he doesn’t make the club out of camp, he’s worth rostering in a 5-6 OF 12 team league, or your first, possibly second, bench spot on a 14 team 4-OF league. It’ll be an interesting fight between Gonzalez, Smith and Fowler.