Chris Ray
Baltimore Orioles Closer: A Ray Of Hope
May 5, 2009 by kris · Leave a Comment
After a couple blown saves, George Sherrill’s been put on the hot-seat by Orioles manager, Dave Trembley. Sherrill, who’s now referred to as “All-Star Closer, George Sherrill,” recorded only 3 saves after the all-streak break last year and has converted only four of six opportunities so far in 2009.
The Baltimore Sun reported that Trembley had this to say after Sherrill gave up a home-run to Toronto’s Aaron Hill:
I think No. 1, we have to do what’s best to get us on the winning track, and No. 2, I have to take a look at the situation and do what I feel is in the best interest of the team for today. Further than that, I’ll probably take it day by day.
Trembley hasn’t ruled out a closer by committee and lists the possibilities as Sherrill, Baez, Johnson and former O’s closer, Chris Ray. Chris Ray is the most intriguing of the bunch and was the Orioles’ full-time closer from 2006 to 2007, when he was forced to undergo Tommy John surgery. Ray was incredibly effective in 2006 posting a 2.73 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 33 Saves while holding batters to a .193 batting average.
Unfortunately, the 2009 version of Chris Ray hasn’t been nearly as effective, posting a 7.56 ERA and a WHIP of 2.16. Ray began the season on a terrible note, giving up 4 runs in 1.1 innings to the Yankees. After pitching five scoreless innings and lowering his ERA to 5.14, Ray’s given up 3 ER over his last two appearances.
In 2009, Chris Ray’s statistics are down across the board and can almost certainly be attributed to his loss of velocity. At his peak in 2006, Chris Ray averaged almost 95mph on his heater, 86mph on his slider and 85mph on his change-up / split-finger fastball. Ray routinely hit the high 90′s on his fastball and limited batters to hitting only 16% line-drives, while posting a K:BB of about two. Ray’s had trouble regaining his velocity and has resorted to throwing his fastball a mere 46% of the time, a 20% decrease from his peak years.
There is still hope for Chris Ray to be a successful big-league closer though and it all comes down to trust. After losing his entire 2008 season to injury, it makes perfect sense that Ray would lose trust in his arm. As with any severe injury, it’s going to take some time for Ray to begin trusting his own body and regaining trust in his elbow. After Tommy John surgery, pitchers go through a transitionary period before realizing they can pitch every bit as well post-surgery as they did before. Gibson, Webner, Huffman and Sennett concluded in the American Journal of Sports Medicine that,
“Most major league pitchers return from ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction by the second season after surgery with no statistical change in mean innings pitched, earned run average, or walks and hits per inning pitched from preinjury levels.”
Using fangraphs terrific new tool, a pfx velocity graph, it’s clear to see that Chris Ray is regraining trust in his arm and elbow.
While Chris Ray hasn’t quite regained his pre-surgery velocity, he’s steadily increased his velocity to the point where he’s at least getting to 95mph.
Ray’s slider is also trending upwards at a fairly similar rate.
To say the very least, these are encouraging velocity charts. At this point, a month or so into the season, Ray’s still only pitched 8 innings. My gut tells me that Ray won’t regain a feel for his *new* elbow for another couples weeks, or 10 IP. I don’t see Ray touching 100 mph anymore, but hitting the high-90′s on a somewhat regular basis seems like a distinct possibility.
Ray also appears to be getting quite unlucky, surrendering a .491 BABIP to opposing hitters. Ray’s 4.14 FIP definitely gives Chris Ray owners a reason to ignore his 7.56 ERA. Ray’s BABIP should be on the higher end of the spectrum considering he’s allowing 21% Line Drives, but it shoudln’t be quite this high — keep in mind, we’re dealing with a sample size of under 10 IP and 157 pitches.
Ray will never be an elite closer, as his control still leaves a lot to be desired, but he will be an above-average source of saves if he can get his velocity up.
Ray’s still got the stuff, he just needs to regain trust – in himself, and from Dave Trembley.
Here’s a couple articles on the medicine behind Tommy John Surgery:
Scientific America Article on Post Tommy John Velocity Increase
