As always, there’s a huge sample size warning when it comes to spring training. To illustrate the problem with small sample sizes, let me illuminate a lovely little analogy. Maybe you just happened upon this blog in the past couple of weeks. You were probably disappointed by the writing quality, but super impressed by just how many articles one man can turn out. You may have even bookmarked the blog and figured I’d churn out 600 articles in 2011 based on my current pace. BAM! Small sample size! We both know I’ll eventually get bored or busy and just stop posting and it makes more sense to look at my average output over the past three years rather than three days.

Anyways, here‘s a quick look at some of the interesting statistics in Spring Training thus far:

Chris Davis, yes that Chris Davis, has been absolutely punishing spring training pitching. Chris Davis always punishes spring training pitching though because Chris Davis loves hitting mistakes a long, long way. There’s talk heating up about a Chris Davis trade and honestly, I’m sorta intrigued.

Line: .405/.422/.833 over 42 AB — That’s 4HR and 35 TB.

Ben Francisco should get plenty of ABs in 2011. Ibanez is old and Dom Brown’s hurt. There are worse options out there than Francisco who’s currently hitting the ball pretty hard.

Line: .326/.380/.630 over 46 AB — That’s 3 HR and 29 TB.

Kila Ka’aihue does pretty well in the projection models this year and hasn’t disappointed in ST. I’m pretty intrgued by Kila (and the Royals in general) in 2011. There should be plenty of hidden value in this squad.

Line: .417/.447/.806 over 36 AB — That’s 4 HR and 2 SB

Alex Gordon also plays for the Royals and it’s time to fulfill his potential. Gordon’s done almost everything right this spring. He’s actually walked as many times as he’s stuck out in 2011. That’s huge.

Line: .375/.528/.700 over 40 AB — That’s 3 HR, 1SB, and 11 BB!!!!

Mike Morse isn’t exactly sexy, but he just seems to get the job done. In almost 300 PA last year, Morse hit over a .500 SLG. That’s continued this spring.

Line: .348/.385/.739 over 46 AB — That’s 5 HR

Chipper Jones sure is getting old and I’m sure his body feels great in March, but how long he can keep this up is anyone’s guess. This spring, he’s been raking.  Definitely worth a late pick.

Line: .383 / .431 /.723 over 47 AB — That’s 3 HR and 34 TB

Rajai Davis is slotted as the Jays centerfielder and should steal a bunch of bases in 2011. Thus far, he’s actually been smash-killing HR.

Line: .333/.386/.692 over 39 AB — That’s 3 HR and 0…yes 0.. SB

Lastings Milledge haunts me. Every year I think he’ll turn it around. Every damn year. With Pierre, Rios and Quentin in the outfield, Milledge will have a hard time finding an opening day gig, but one of them will get hurt…eventually.

Line: .325 / .417 / .625 over 40 AB — That’s 4 HR, 6BB and 8 SO.

Gordon Beckham is also mashing after a ‘meh’ 2010. He should definitely top last year’s .252 batting average. .275 is very realistic.

Line: .357 / .426 / .595 over 42 AB — That’s 2 HR, 2 SB, 3 BB and 5 SO.

Brandon Belt is super prospect. I think he might be the first prospect off the board that didn’t get playing time last year. I guess it’s between him and Montero. He still looks very young though.

Line: .277 / .333 / .511 over 47 AB — That’s 10 strike-outs, 2 SB, 4 BB and a couple HR.

Lonnie Chisenhall is underrated each and every year. Kid’s got all sorts of talent. This spring over 26 AB he’s absolutely killed it. In case you were wondering, Jayson Nix. Yup, Jayson Nix is the Tribe’s starting third basemen. Chisenhall looks like a great option sooner rather than later

Line: .500 / .567 / .885 over 26 AB — That’s 2 HR, 3 BB and 7 K’s.

Gio Gonzalez is the Athletic that’s not getting love. Personally, I think he’s got a great shot of surprising in 2011 and being a great go-to option for the Athletics. He’s really looked sharp in spring training

Line: 1.76 ERA, 0.91 WHIP, 19 K, 5 BB and 2 HR allowed

Jon Niese, I love Jon Niese. He just seems to get it done. He’s looked sharp in spring.

Line: 3.31 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 17 K, 4 BB and a 1.31 GO/AO ratio.

Manny Banuelos is turning heads in camp. Obviously, it doesn’t hurt that he’s a Yankee but everyone seems to be impressed by this kid. Probably not an option in 2011, maybe even 2012, but who knows.

Line: 7.2 IP, 0.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10 K, 4BB

The House season finale is disappointing thus far, and sometime over the past 4 years this show lost it’s mojo.

When you’re striking out 47% clip, somethings gotta change.  Chris Davis, being the mad scientist he is, decided that a heavier bat would actually speed up his wrists.  Counterintuitive?  Yup! …but it’s working so far.

Even if Chris Carpenter’s on the DL, he’s still contributing to someone’s fantasy squad.  Carpenter noticed something in Adam Wainwrights delivery, and apparently Wainwright’s diggin’.  “I actually threw some better fastballs,” Wainwright said. “I’ve just got to get my arm in a better slot.”  I love Wainwright as a buy-low candidate, regardless of his high pitch-counts.  If you can pay for him as if he was a 4.00 ERA pitcher, pull the trigger.

Noted Douche-Bag, Brett Myers, had this to say after his most recent start, “I still need a little bit of work. Everything went well for the most part, but it didn’t work out in my favor. It’s a matter of getting that aggressive mentality back and taking that into my mechanics, instead of laying back trying to hit spots.”  I dont think anyone will ever confuse Myers for a hard-worker, but he’s got solid stuff and should be a good addition to any staff once he gets his shit sorted out.  He’s still a 7.5-8K per 9 guy, and he should be able to get his WHIP down to under 1.40.

Let the fun begin, Chipper Jones has a sore right elbow and will miss a game or two, after leaving yesterday’s game early.  This is going to be a non-stop headache, but he’ll be productive while he’s in there.  I predict two DL-stints.

Carlos Delgado’s sore too…

Soria too! and Hochevar got the Call.

Mauer feels great though, and wants to catch every day.

The LA-Times points out a ridiculously insane OMFG-type fact that’d never crossed my mind:

The last American League Clean-Up Hitter in an All-Star Game to NOT be linked to Performance Enhancing Drugs was….

Tino Martinez, 1997.

Since Tino, we’ve had Juan-Gone in ’98, Man-Ram in ’99, Giambi in ’00, Boone in 2001, Giambi in ’02, A-Rod in ’03, Ramirez in ’04 and 05 and A-Rod since 2006.  Jesus Bloody Hell.

We’ll end it on that.

House just ended, and the last 20 minutes saved it for me.  Worth a watch, 7.2/10

The day Christopher Davis hit puberty was the day his career path was set: Chris was going to be a Major League Baseball player, or an alcoholic State Trooper that sat at home polishing his revolver, cheek packed with chewing tobacco, watching, you guessed it, Major League Baseball.

Standing six-foot-four, weighing in at 235 pounds, and sporting one of the dirtier beards in the show, Davis definitely looks like a ball player. When Davis swings, he swings hard, and when Davis makes contact, it goes a long way.  Everything about Davis screams pure-power, and he definitely didn’t disappoint during his short stint in the big leagues to close out 2008.

The new year hasn’t been nearly as kind to Davis and his power-producing uppercut swing. Davis’ line thus far: .200 Batting Average, .259 On-Base Percentage, and a .400 Slugging Percentage.

What Experts Saw: .285 Batting Average, .264 ISO and 17 HR in 295 AB

In limited action, Davis destroyed opposing pitching. Three-Hundred plate appearances is nowhere near enough to adequately judge Davis, but it is enough to start to get a feel for him as a hitter. Considering his minor-league track record, where Davis progressed rapidly through the Rangers’ system, definitely helps support the prevailing projections for Davis.

What The Experts Looked Past: High K, Low BB, Poor Plate Discipline

Davis’ aggressive plate approach (30% K-Rate and 6% BB-Rate in 2008) isn’t exactly unique for a power hitting first baseman: Adam Dunn (31%), Carlos Pena (33.9%), and Ryan Howard (32.6%) all struck out more than 30 percent of the time in 2008.

Unlike Davis, these sluggers had the discipline to walk more than 6 percent of the time.  Adam Dunn lead the pack with a .75 Walk-to-Strikeout Ratio, with Carlos Pena (.58 BB:K) and Ryan Howard (.41 BB:K) also besting Davis’ abysmal .23 BB:K Ratio.

Of the High-ISO / High-K Sluggers, Davis sat amongst some rather painful names with regards to BB:K rate in 2008:  Marcus Thames, Cody Ross, Mark Reynolds, Kelly Shoppach and Mike Jacobs all pop off the page. Playing in Arlington definitely helps Davis’ case, but at which point do you draw the line?

Davis’ plate discipline wasn’t any better, and it’s a wonder the kid hit .285 in 2008.  Davis wasn’t quite in Alexei Ramirez-land, but he did swing at 37% of pitches that were thrown outside of the zone.  In turn, pitchers adapted by throwing Davis fewer strikes and Davis couldn’t lay-off.

2009 has been a complete disaster for Davis, and you better prepare yourself before reading this, Chris Davis has only made contact with 57 percent of pitches thrown within the strike-zone.  Davis isn’t a contact hitter and he did post an 11th worst, 79% zone-contact rate in 2008 ( PA > 300,)  but this is unbearable.  Davis’ 56 percent Z-Contact is good for dead-last by almost 15 points — we’re talking AWFUL (or a broken fangraphs.com computer.)

In The End…

Small sample size warnings apply to slumping players too!  Davis’ entire track-record shows that he’s a capable hitter, regardless of his lack of discipline.  Davis may not walk 10 percent of the time in the bigs, but he’ll definitely improve upon his 3.8% BB-Rate and 50% K-Rate.

By drafting Chris Davis, you drafted an undisciplined power hitter and you had to figure that things could get ugly.  Please refrain from dropping him, but rather understand he’s nowhere near this awful.  He’s bound to lock in, and make solid contact more than 57 percent of the time.

Going into the draft, I couldn’t help but warn people against drafting Davis at his hype-machine value.  However, if you can get Davis at 75-85 cents on the dollar or even 90 cents — BUY, BUY, BUY!  Davis has recorded a hit in each of his last four games, and is clearly starting to come around.  The window to acquire Davis will probably come crashing shut sometime in the next week, so if you’re going to chase him, now’s the time.

Up until last night when Davis smashed a home-run with a broken bat, I’d thought about the possibility of a lingering injury, but until I hear something conclusive I’ll consider him healthy. The possibility of Davis having one of those ‘too well for the dl, too sore to perform’ -type injuries still keeps me up at night (apparently until 1:36AM.)

Unless the Rangers do something ridiculous like send Davis down to the Minors for seasoning, he should produce ’round about where he was projected to on the year — which of course means, some monster hot streaks.

It’s true, Josh Hamilton is the king of smash-killing baseballs.  If you’ve got him on your fantasy squad,  you’re probably fairly happy to see him go deep today.  He barely made contact and just muscled a change-up out of the park.

Rios owners are probably just as pleased to finally see Rios show some power.  Rios is finally starting to put it together, and doesn’t look frustrated as hell anymore.  Anyways, here’s a quicky with a gallery of full-sized images at the bottom

Hamilton was nice enough to autograph a sketch

Josh Hamilton literally blew my mind during batting practice. He stood there and signed, chatted, and took photos with everyone.  Very rarely do you see a player stick around and sign every item presented.  Brad Ziegler, Josh Hamilton, and Omar Vizquel (who we’ll get to shortly) are the only ones so far.

Davis Just Hit A Dinger and Broke the Handle of his Bat

Chris Davis, BLING!

This One's My Fav

I DID GOOD!

Trick What?

Omar Vizquel has one hell of a nice lookin' auto

Anyways, I’ve resized all the images so they’re a manageable 1800×1200 rather than massive wads of jpeg. No stealing, and if you plan on stealing email me.

[nggallery id=9]

I’ve been on a posting spree, as my better half has left me alone with the television and computer. This has resulted in me watching 3 baseball games (TOR v. CLE, BOS. v. LAA, NYY v. KCR), a UFC fight (St. Pierre vs. Penn II), and now Spike’s new television-awesome: Deadliest Warrior! Currently a GLADIATOR is being pitted against an APACHE WARRIOR.

Onto DEAR JOHN Letters,

Dear David Ortiz,

Remember the hole you had in your swing as a Twin? It’s back. You can’t get around like you used to, and quite frankly I’m sick of waiting around for you.  Even if you do get healthy, you’re more of a .930-.950 OPS guy now.  Maybe someone else thinks you can top 1.000, but not me.

Dear Evan Longoria,

I realize you’re young, and the best is yet to come, but I’ve got to say goodbye.  The 4 HR are nice, really, but I’m not buying your 44% HR:FB ratio.  I’m still pretty concerned about that K-Rate, too.  Maybe by the time this letter gets to you, I’ll have rethought my position.  You’re nice, but not second-round nice. x0x0x0x.

Dear Vladmir Guerrero,

Swinging at everything was cute when you were young, but I’m noticing a whole lotta grey in that beard of yours.  Like Ortiz, you’ll be useful but you’ll miss too many games to warrant your ADP.

Dear Alexei Ramirez,

Who do you think you are, Vladmir Guerrero?  Swinging at everything isn’t nearly as cute when you do it.  Baseball’s not all that easy when pitchers get the book on you, now is it?  You’ll adjust, and I’ll be sure to snap you up once your value’s hit rock bottom. Even with the small sample size, you’re 31.4 ZONE% is pretty concerning.

Dear Chris Davis,

I spent all Winter telling you that you struck out too much, and I’ve had enough.  Don’t you listen? You’ll never amount to anything if you keep up these bad habits.  All women love projects though, we like to think we can take a bad boy and turn him into a good boy. I’ll be giving you a call back once your trade-value dips low enough.

Dear Austin Kearns,

You’re half the man Elijah Dukes is, but you’re persistent as hell.  I’m sorry I have to do this, but at least your best quality is your arm — go put it to use.

Dear Justin Upton,

You’re hung like a horse, but you really need to learn how to use it. I feel violated.  I gotcha number on da speed dial though.

Dear Mark DeRosa,

Last year was great, and I love your friends in Cleveland this year, but 33-year-olds get worse with age, not better.  Sorry.

Dear Gladiator,

You lost to the Apache Warrior. I’m very dissappointed.

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30′s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30′s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30′s to low-40′s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.

Continuing the trend of answering random Google search queries that bring people to this site, I’ll now attempt to answer the question: Chris Davis vs. Carlos Pena.

Chris Davis and Carlos Pena really aren’t that different.  In 1998, the Texas Rangers made Carlos Pena the 10th overall pick.  Skip ahead 8 years to 2006 and the Rangers select Chris Davis in round 5.

Pena’s enjoyed a roller-coaster career, ranking as high as the fifth overall prospect by Baseball America in 2002. That same year he began his free-fall, as he hit .218 for the Athletics before they shipped him off to the Tigers.  Thus began Carlos Pena’s jet-setting ways, where in 2007 he landed in his 6th city, Tampa Bay.

Chris Davis has been on the fast track to the bigs after being drafted out of Navarro Junior College. Davis has been ranked as high as Texas’ second overall prospect, and the 65th overall prospect in all of baseball.

Both Davis and Pena started their careers as 20-year olds who smashed minor league pitching, but lacked contact skills. Davis possessed a higher slugging percentage while Pena had an incredibly superior walk-rate.

We’re not comparing Davis and Pena as 20-year olds though, we’re comparing 23-year old Christopher Davis with nearly 31-year old Carlos Pena.

The Art Of Hitting: Batting Average And On-Base-Percentage

Some things never change though:  Christopher Davis has made a habit of striking out too much and is predicted to strike-out around 30 percent of the time in 2008.  Carlos Pena, strangely enough is also predicted to strike-out, you guessed it: 30 percent of the time.

Comparing Carlos Pena and Chris Davis ends up being pretty interesting because of this. Christopher Davis is predicted to walk about 7 percent of the time and post a .25-.30 BB:K ratio in 2009. Regardless of his lack of plate discipline, he should have a superior batting average to Carlos Pena.   Pena, who has at least a respectable 15% BB-Rate, will end up batting almost 25 points less then Davis.  Obviously, if you’re in an OBP league rather than an AVG league things change.

According to MARCEL, Davis’ .288 batting average becomes a .345 OBP and Pena’s .261 average becomes a .379 OBP. Keep in mind, Pena does have the potential to post a respectable batting average, as seen by the .282 he posted in 2007.

The Art Of Smash-Killing Home Runs

The variance in Davis’ projections is ridiculous; he’s predicted to hit between 16 and 40 HR which puts him somewhere between waiver-wire bait, and second round pick.  While the computers disagree on how many HR he’ll hit, they’re all pretty certain he’ll continue his smash-killing ways with a SLG of over .500 and an ISO of about .230.

Carlos Pena on the other hand is projected by all but one computer to hit 31 HR.  Oliver, the odd projection system out, predicts a mind-boggling 32 HR. Yet I still can’t help but recall Pena’s 46 HR 2007 season.

Odds are this is going to be pretty close to a wash.  Chris Davis could well blow up and hit 36 HR, but that’s probably only going to best Carlos Pena by five or so HR.

If pitchers adapt to Davis’ free-swinging ways though, he could be on his way to becoming the next Carlos Pena.

The Art of Knockin’ ‘em in, and Scoring ‘em Yourself.

I never bet against the Ball Park in Arlington when it comes to counting stats.  Even marginal players start posting ridiculous totals when they play in Texas.  Josh Hamilton, Micheal Young and Ian Kinsler are the only givens, but Nelson Cruz, David Murphy, Elvis Andrus, Hank Blalock and the combination of Salty/Teagarden add a lot of intrigue to this lineup.

Christopher Davis has a very legitimate shot at posting at least 100 of both runs batted in, and runs scored.

Carlos Pena on the other hand should sit fairly comfortably in the middle of a young and talented Tampa Bay Rays line-up.  With the addition of Burrell, Pena’s runs scored should also improve. It once again comes down to which version of Carlos Pena we’ll get though.  The 2007 version hit for a solid average, got on base, and in turn scored almost 100 runs while driving in 121. In 2008 he remained a solid run producer, driving in 102 but his runs scored fell off drastically to 76.  With Burrell and Joyce added to the equation, you’d have to expect a return to the 90-100 Runs scored region.

The Art of the Stolen Base

Neither Davis nor Pena will steal enough bases to warrant any added value.

The Conclusion:

Davis is coming off the board at 65th overall, which is essentially a round before Pena at 77th overall. Realistically, this is probably due to Davis’ multi-position eligibility and the perceived value of third base eligibility.

I’m honestly worried about both of these two though.  Davis’ lack of plate discipline could spell disaster if pitchers ever adapt to his incredible power and Pena’s lack of consistency was showcased last year.

Both of these sluggers are coming off the board fairly early considering the talent that’s around them, and I’ll be implimenting draft and trade strategies with both of them.

There’s really no clear cut winner in this competition.  Davis’ average notches him ahead of Pena, but the risk of immense failure negates this advantage.

In shallow leagues, it pays to take extremely large risks because you could fill Davis’ spot with a solid but not spectacular third basemen, should Davis fall flat on his face.

In deeper leagues, I’d wait the 30 picks and take a safe bet like Garrett Atkins who has most of the potential, but not nearly the risk.

Unfortunately Pena belongs to a large group of first basemen with  some variety of risk.  You can’t just wait a while and take the safe pick, so you’re going to have to pick what type of risk you want to incur: Votto’s inexperience, Delgado’s age, LaRoche’s slow-stars, or Conor Jackson’s lack of power.

I’d have to go with 10 teams and under, pick Chris Davis.  14 Teams and over is Carlos Pena Time.

Does a drastic increase in OPS during spring training foreshadow a breakout season? Who knows.  Regardless of such uncertainty, here’s a few gentleman that’ve been putting up very solid numbers.

Kevin Frandsen (2B – SFG) is hitting .303 with a .424 SLG which should probably be enough to hold off the charging Emmanuel Burriss (2B-SFG) who’s hitting .397 with a .492 slugging percentage.  Eugenio Velez (2B/OF – SFG) isn’t that far behind hitting .339 and slugging .548.  Everyone but Frandsen possesses solid stolen base potential, but it looks like a two-horse race between Frandsen and Burriss.  Giants manager Bruce Bochy said he’d announce the winner of the open-competition before the Giants left Arizona on Wednesday.

Daniel Murphy (LF – NYM) seems to be going higher and higher in drafts and with the spring he’s having; it seems warranted. Murphy’s hitting .333 with a .455 slugging percentage.  He hasn’t hit a dinger yet, which should worry you a little bit considering he’s only going to have OF eligibility.

This may be the year that Corey Hart (OF – MIL) puts everything together.  He’s your typical tools guy, who hasn’t quite put it together.  Hart’s already got 6HR and is batting .404.  It seems as though our favourite free-swinger may have put some time in this off-season. 13 strike outs to only 3 walks is still concerning though.

Our favourite error-prone Canadian Mark Teahan (2B/OF – KC) has hit 5 HR in only 39AB. He’s hitting .487, and only has 8 strikeouts compared to 5 walks.  Fellow Royal, Mike Jacobs (1B – KC) has hit 6 HR, but has also struck out 18 times! I still would have some issues rostering Jacobs. Billy Butler (1B – KC) has been posting terrific numbers too.

Two aging first basemen are both healthy and raking.  Todd Helton (1B – COL) and Paul Konerko (1B – CHW) are both hitting over .400 with 4 HR. Both of these guys should be rosterable in deep leagues, and borderline in shallow leagues.  I wouldn’t be surprised if both of ‘em go through streaks where they perform in the top-10 first basemen.

Sweet-Swinging Jeremy Hermida (OF – FLA) may have finally put it all together. He’s hit 4 HR, and is batting .340 with 5 walks to 9 strikeouts while slugging .642. Delmon Young and Jeremy Hermedia are two post-hype sleepers you probably want to keep an eye on.

The perennial prospect, Brandon Wood (3B-LAA), looks primed for at least a useful year. He’s hitting .347 while slugging .735.  The key stat for Wood is 8 strikeouts in 49 AB.  For someone who’s known for putting up a 30 percent strike-out rate, this is spectacular.

I’m really starting to worry about everyone’s favourite American League Sleeper, Chris Davis (1B/3B – TEX). 21 strikeouts in 61 at-bats during Spring Training is concerning, very concerning.  I’m sure he’ll put up solid numbers in Texas, but he’s going to be streaky. Two other youngsters, Colby Rasmus (OF-STL) and Chris Dickerson (OF-CIN) are also posting unhealthy strike-out numbers.  Dickerson is still very worthy of a draft-pick at this point, even in shallow leagues.

Carl Crawford (OF-TAM) seems healthy again, Thank God.  He’s stole 6 bases in 37 AB. Not many people think the Rays will compete with the Red Sox and Yankees in 2009.  This should help Crawford’s stolen base numbers.  40 Stolen bases from this former first rounder isn’t out of the question.

I wouldn’t put too much weight on it, but Adam Jones (OF – BAL) is having a great spring. Jones is a ball player, with a very solid shot at 20/20 this year. Last year’s 9 HR and 10 SB just seems ridiculous considering his talent.  Jones is one hell of a sleeper in just about any format. It also appears as though Jones will open the year hitting second in the new Orioles line-up, which should mean an increase across the board.

Pablo Sandoval ( UTIL – SFG) just won’t go away.  I really don’t like Sandoval as a sleeper, something just seems off.  He is however hitting .448 with 39 total bases in 58 AB.

Everyone’s favourite Toronto Blue Jay, Travis Snider (OF – TOR), is hitting a very solid .381 with a .690 slugging percentage.  Snider’s my favourite player, so don’t expect unbiased information from this analyst.  The single, paltry, walk is still concerning.  We’ll see how long it takes pitchers to start adjusting to him.  The Blue Jays won’t be hesitant to send him down, but he belongs on the big league roster.

Staying on Travis’, Travis Buck (OF-OAK) and his beautiful Man-Mane is starting to come into his own and continuing the Athletics trend of walking just as much as you strike-out.

One of my favourites, Kendry Morales (1B – LAA) appears to be posting a solid spring with a .356 AVG and .576 SLG.  I’m not sure why more people aren’t hyping him up — when he came out, he had all sorta of hype, and then got the “fat and lazy” tag.

Hey, Shouldn’t You Be Striking Out?

Nelson Cruz (OF – TEX) strikes out at 25 percent clip has 5 strikeouts and 4 walks in 31 AB.

Hank Blalock (3B/UTIL – TEX) also seems to be showing last year’s huge decline in K-rate is the real deal.  He’s struck out 6 times, and walked 7 times in 48 AB.

Ian Stewart (3B – COL) seems to have shown improvement over last year’s 35 percent strike-out rate. He’s only struck out 7 times in 44 AB, to go along with 5 BB.

In addition to killing spring training pitching, J.J. Hardy (SS – MIL) has only struck out 5 times in 52 AB.  That’s the same amount he’s walked.

Does Rick Ankiel (OF – STL) ever stop improving? He, of the 2008 25% K-Rate, is hitting .356 with 12 K and 11 BB in 73AB.  I’m starting to buy this whole “Rick Ankiel Is Awesome” talk.

Khalil Greene ( SS – STL) has seriously only struck out 3 times in 60 AB. Greene still doesn’t walk, but he’s an annual 25% strike-out guy. Maybe we’re onto something, maybe he’s just enduring one of his hot-streaks.

Jason Kubel (UTIL – MIN) and his 20 percent career strike-out rate has only 3 K’s in 45 AB.

Cameron Maybin (OF – FLA) and his 12 strike-outs to 7 walks in 54 AB, is intriguing — very intriguing.  Every projection model out there has Maybin striking out at a 30 percent clip.

As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago.  I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.

Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:

What’s Missing?

Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year.  If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.

Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy.  Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.

The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel.  Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.

Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam.  Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year.  The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.

Fantasy Baseball has its share of guys drafted in the late rounds, or picked up for a dollar that really pan out.  You’re generally not going to get anyone who absolutely kills it for a buck, or in the last round, unless you’re in a 10-12 team default league.  But here are some guy’s that’ll fill in nicely.

Minor Leaguers / Hot Prospects will have their own list, so they are excluded from this one.

Position Players

Anaheim Angels

Kendry Morales (1b) came over from Cuba in 2005 with a boatload of hype, and then proceeded to become spectacularly average.  The Fantasy World was abuzz just a few years ago about the Angels’ corner infielders, Dallas McPherson and Kendry Morales.  Then, they just stopped maturing, and when called up couldn’t produce.  None the less, Morales has had an incredible winterball season and obviously the talent is there.  Power hitting first basemen aren’t going to be gotten for a buck, but he’ll be cheaper come draft day.  Hopefully the Angels stay with Morales and resist the temptation to sign a first baseman.  Morales will produce and 25HR, 85RBI, 75R, and a .270 AVG seems reasonable.

Houston Astros

J.R. Towles (C) came into last year as the second hot catching prospect behind Soto. While Soto excelled as a major league backstop, Towles really shit the bed.  It Wouldn’t be out of the question to see Towles hit 15-20 HR, and Bill James has him hitting 17HR. Keep an eye on the starting Catcher’s job as Toby Hall was recently brought in to clean up the mess if Towles struggled.

Oakland Athletics

There’s going to be some value here, the problem is there are a lot of players around the same talent level fighting for jobs.

Ryan Sweeney (CF) wins the starting CF job, and has the possibility of going 15HR, 15SB.

Travis Buck (RF) has a tonne of talent, and flopped horribly last year.  He’s a top-tier young player that should develop power to go along with his solid batting eye.  As with all the stupid Athletics — Buck walks a lot and strikes out more.

Eric Patterson’s (OF /2B) AAA averages of .300+ have not translated well to the big leagues.  The Athletics acquired Patterson in the Harden deal, and will eventually end up with a solid player.  He’s got speed and, above all, second base eligibility.  If the Athletics can find a place for Patterson, he’ll be worth the dollar or two you’ll have to spend on him. His MLB strike-out rate isn’t a pretty sight though, so lets just hope he can drop it below 20%.

Daric Barton (1B) is yet another On Base Machine in the Oakland Athletics system.  He hit .347 in 84 PA in 2007, and then proceeded to stink up the joint (AAA and MLB) in 2008. Barton should have the inside gig on the first base job, with Jason Giambi as the DH.  If he continues to stink it up though; Giambi will move to first with Cust to DH which opens up the outfield for the two names above (Patterson or Buck).

Toronto Blue Jays

Travis Snider (OF / 1B) probably wont come as cheap as I’d like, but he should put up a solid rookie/sophmore season.  He came up for a cup of coffee in 2008, and impressed.  Generally listed among everyones top 10 MLB prospects, Snider is only 21 and has flown through the Jays system.  In limited action in 2008, he hit .300 with a couple dingers. There’s always the possibility the Jays start Snider off in the minors and keep him there for a good chunk, to save cash in the long run.  If Snider can keep ahold of the starting gig for the entire season, 20 HR aren’t out of the question.

While Snider may have more future potential, Adam Lind (OF) looks primed for a solid and productive 2009 campaign.  The Jays babied Lind quite a bit as he was coming through the system, and many Jays fans wanted Lind to stick with the big club a year earlier than he did.  Adam Lind has a realistic shot of hitting between .290 and .305 and, while his power numbers are sick-awesome, he should get to 20-25 HR on the season.  Lind brings incredible value to the table, and should be cheap come draft day.

Atlanta Braves

Josh Anderson(CF) will find a place to play in 2009, he’s gots-ta.  Anderson has quick-fast feet and should steal plenty of bases, cheaply.  He’ll hopefully get on-base somewhere between 33-35 percent of the time and could steal 35-40 bases this year if given the chance. Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones sit ahead of him, both of which have hopes and dreams of their own.  Anderson should be able to snake the starting CF job away from Blanco.  Anderson’s one of my favourites going into the season.

Martin Prado (UTIL) is a second baseman by trade, but has filled in for Chipper Jones and will continue to fill in at third whenever Jones goes down.  While Prado doesn’t have a starting gig, he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.  His .320 batting average last year was a result of a silly-stupid .360 BABIP but he appears to be a legitimate .290 – .300 hitter with not much else.  He gets on base, and has a good LD%.

Casey Kotchman will outperform his value, but by no means is he a sleeper.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bill Hall (3B) hit 290 in 2005, and everything was looking up. Then his strike out rates went as follows, presented with the corresponding averages: 2005 20 K%, .291  AVG, 2006 30 K%, .270 AVG, 2007 28 K%, .254 AVG, 2008 31 K%, .225 AVG.  To expect things from Hall is nutty, but if he can just manage to keep that bloody K percentage down to even 23-25%, he’ll be useful.

Anyone know if Alcides Escobar can play a solid third-base?

St. Louis Cardinals

Khalil Greene (SS). I like Greene this year, and I’m crazy for it.  It’s one of those doesn’t make sense gut feelings, that will either win you or lose you a fantasy league. Maybe he hits .260 and pulls his typical week with 5 HR, 4 Weeks with 0 HR type season.

David Freese (3B) went from three years of high and low A ball with the Padres to killing in triple A with the Cardinals.  Something smells fishy, but he’s listed as the guy behind Glaus.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Fontenot (2B) is the closest thing to a sleeper on this team, and who knows if he’ll out-perform his value.  He deserves to start over Aaron Miles, but weird shit happens in the windy city.  Keep an eye on this little situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Felipe Lopez (2B) will be filling the void at second left by Orlando Hudson, the O-Dog. I’m pretty high on Lopez, but he’s got some attitude issues.  Lopez probably makes my list of top 10 sleepers going into 2009. He should get down to business and put up some incredibly solid numbers.  He’s capable of batting .290 and stealing 30 or more bases, which cant be said for the other guys Melvin might think of batting atop the order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lopez occupy the 1 or 2 hole, and reap the rewards of a solid Arizona Diamondbacks line-up.

Lopez played 13 G at SS, 13 G at 3B, 17 G in the OF, and 101 at 2B.  Check your league settings because Lopez could be the ultimate fill-in.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Do the Dodgers get a deal done for Manny Ramirez?  If not Juan Pierre (OF) might become a bit more attractive with his huge contract floating around. However, Pierre’s name may add a couple bucks to his actual price tag, which you might care to avoid. 40 SB from someone who wont kill your batting average is always nice though.

Blake DeWitt (2B / 3B) has the inside line on the second base job over Mark Loretta.  He doesn’t bring anything particularly sexy to the table, but the kid can play.  The second and third eligibility helps.  All and all nothing overwhelming in Dodger-land.

San Francisco Giants

Lots of Fun in Giants camp! Pablo Sandoval (3B, 1B, C) is everyones favorite sleeper for the entirty of Fantasy Baseball for 2009.  He’s not a sleeper anymore, but the kid can play and did play 11 games at Catcher, 12 at third base, and 17 at first.  It looks like he’ll be playing third this year, but check your league settings.  Nothing is more annoying than finding out someone isn’t eligible for a position.  If he’s eligible for catcher in your league, snatch him the hell up.

Emmanuel Burriss (SS / 2B) should win the job over Kelly Frandsen, maybe.  Along with Burriss, Eugenio Velez (2B) has a shot of snagging that opening.  Velez will bring you ridiculous SB, and could be solid but is going to have issues matching Burriss defensively.  It’ll be itneresting to see how this plays out, as both Burriss and Velez should be able to get you a bunch of SB, assuming they win the job.

Cleveland Indians

Matt Laporta (OF / 1B) will go with the rookie rankings but hopefully he plays this year for the big club.

The Indians have quite a few guys with room for improvement and maturity, yet none of them really classify as sleepers. Shin-Soo Choo (OF / RF) looks darn good and had quite the season in just under 100 games for the tribe last year. The .309 BA is nice, but the .373 BABIP is ridiculous. His Line Drive percentage is nice and pretty above 20%, but .373 is ridiculous.  He got lucky, but he can still go and hit 20+ HR for the tribe this year, and he does still have some speed in the tank (enough for 10SB? Maybe)

Keep an eye on Ben Francisco as well, the other corner outfielder.

The Entire Indians Infield (DeRosa, Cabrera, Peralta, and Garko) have the ability to eclipse their dollar value / draft round, in 2009.  Not sleepers, but worth a look. I’m especially high on Cabrera and Garko, as the other two have gotten their fair share of pre-season hype.

Seattle Mariners

What a waste-land.  I’m not a fan of the Mariners, at all. Everytime they come to Toronto, hoards of japanese people come out and scream their faces off at Kenji Johjima and Ichiro Suzuki.  They’re like rockstars, and the 16-22 year old Japanese girls that scream for them act like their white peers at an All American Rejects concert.

Jeff Clement (C) isn’t a sleeper, but he should outperform his draft stock.

Florida Marlins

Much better, the Florida Marlins have some sleepers. Jeremy Hermida (RF) has all the tools to be great, not just good — but GREAT.  Most fantasy owners get pissed off when they read about sleepers for a couple years, and they just never pan out. Hermida falls into this group, the post hype sleeper group. 2008′s 28 percent strike-out rate is a weeeeeeeee bit concerning, but sometimes you just gotta trust your eyes and go with that sweet sweet swing.

Cameron Maybin (OF) should be good, not quite yet though — He’ll be hanging out with LaPorta in the “rookies who can make a difference” room.

John Baker (C), Oh how I like thee.  His outlook looks good, and he’ll be great value in the last round or two of your draft — If he flops, which he could well do, just cut bait.  Otherwise, I’m fixin’ on predictin’ 350-400 AB to go with 15 HR

Dallas McPherson (3B) should be good but the hype machine is starting it’s engines, and with the ridiculous amount of homers he’s put up in the Minors the past couple years — the experts are remembering just how much they LOVED McPherson 5 years ago.

New York Mets

The Mets’ outfield other than Beltran looks to have a good bit of talent floating around it. I’m generally against listing sleepers from big market teams, as ESPN tends to showcase the hell out of them but Ryan Church (OF) has been solid, but not spectacular for sometime now, and other than a broken brain looks good. With Church, you might get 20 HR, a handful of steals, and a guarenteed .275 average.  He’s quite serviceable in deeper leagues. The 20-25% K rate is concerning, but if he’s adding power while doing it — I’ll take it.

Daniel Murphy (OF / 2B? / 3b?) could make a big impact in fantasy circles this year. His .386 BABIP last year inflated his stats, but he’s still only 24 years old. Murphy can play just about anywhere, but will start the season qualifying only as an OF.  There’s a chance with the right set of circumstances that he snags eligibility at 2B and/or 3B.  If he comes out of camp as the starting second baseman, he’s value is going to be solid as all hell. His LD rate was a stupid-silly 33 percent last year, which makes that .386 BABIP not so ridiculous and while his K rate was 20+ percent last year — he should drop it down below 20 (if minor league stats have any influence whatsoever on MLB stats). If Murphy can steal 10 bases, which he’s more than capable of, he’ll be useful in all but the most shallow of leagues. If you consider him a sleeper, Murphy is top 5.

Jeremy Reed (OF) came over from Seattle, and the talent’s there.  He hasn’t managed to put it together, and his top-prospect status is long gone. Maybe he’ll react well to being out of Seattle and begin putting up the numbers once expected of him.

Washington Nationals

Their outfield is stacked with former top prospects, absolutely stacked.  I’m not sure if it’ll ever gell considering the attitude that’s out there but:

Lastings Milledge (OF) was the chosen one in the Mets farm system for a few years before coming over to the Nats.  As with all New York prospects, the great ones are blown up way too big, and the smaller ones get lost in the shadows to become great players. Milledge does have the talent though, as he can easily steal 25 bases to go along with his developing power.  Last Years 14 HR season should be improved upon, actually all of his numbers should be improved upon. If he can keep his LD rate above 20, and his K rate below it — he could outperform the massive hype surrounding him..lets hope.  He’s not a one dollar sleeper, and you’ll have to pay to get him but the potential is there.

Elijah Dukes (RF / OF) has more power than Milledge, but also has more issues.  If Dukes has 15 wives and each wife has 2 children, and each child has 3 Daddies,  how many children is Dukes really the father of? Dukes has all the talent in the world and if everything goes well he could smash his draft day value. Read this carefully: Elijah Dukes could reasonably go 30HR and 30SB, with a .275BA given he reaches about 600PA.

Josh Willingham (LF / OF) could get to 25 HR pretty easily, but keep in mind his BA isn’t pretty and he strikes out a hella-lot.

Jesus Flores (C) could be one to keep an eye on, but he’s not particularly a sleeper.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore and Mike Flanagan are doing a terrific job building their organization the right way — by fleecing other teams of their young talent.

Matt Weiters (C) cannot possibly be considered a sleeper, and he’ll join Laporta, Maybin, and Escobar in the Rookie Category.

Even Adam Jones (CF / OF), one of the nicest guys in baseball, isn’t particularly a sleeper.  He’ll improve upon his numbers of last year, and he’s a super prospect but you’ll probably have to pay some cash money to get him.  Jones has 20 HR pop in his bat as soon as this year, and on a team that loves to just go out and have fun — he should be fun to watch.  Throw in 10-15SB, and you’ve got yourself a ballplayer.

Felix Pie (LF / OF) will more than likely be a second half sleeper.  It may be worth it to draft him, but I’d wait a few months before grabbing him.  If your league is shallow, feel free to grab the speedy young OF whom the Cubs gave the Orioles for essentially nothing.  If he’s allowed to run free, expect a cheap source of stolen bases.

San Diego Padres

I’m not sure where I stand on Chase Headley (OF / 3B?). The Kid has all of the talent in the world, but is it too soon? Chase strikes out too damn much, 31.4% K Rate! but when he does hit the ball he’s a line-drive machine, 25% LD! The Homers aren’t there, but he’ll grow into it eventually — He’s a sleeper, but not one i’d like to have on my team unless I’ve got balls of steel. If Kouzmanoff gets hurt and Headley can move to third, we’ve got a whole new ball-game.

Edgar Gonzalez (2B) might be worth a look if not for that pesky David Eckstein.

Philadelphia Phillies

World Champs don’t produce sleepers.

Raul Ibanez (OF) might be worth a long, long, look though.  He’s no world champ — but he is a .290 hitter with power, who’s numbers have been skewed by Seattle’s awful ballpark.

Who know’s how he’ll adjust to NL pitching after 10 years in the AL, but he’s worth a very very long look.  He wont come for a buck, but i bet he outperforms his cost by at least 3 to 5 dollars.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Rookie Outfielders Andrew McCutchen (OF), Steve Pearce(OF), Jose Tabata(OF) could all make a difference in your fantasy league this year depending on its size.  They’re getting hucked into the Rookie category. I was thinking of putting Pearce here, but it’s easier to put him with the other two star prospects.

Really only Andy LaRoche (3B) sticks out as someone I’d genuinely like to have on my roster.  While Freddy Sanchez (2B) could put up a solid batting average, he’s too hit or miss.

Andy’s brother Adam LaRoche (1B) is primed for a breakout year but is in no way a sleeper.

Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus (SS) can boogey, and he’s won the starting shortstop gig. The Rangers were wise to sign Omar Vizquel (SS) just incase.  Andrus gets thrown in with the other rookies later, to a lesser extent.

Anyone in the Texas Line-Up should produce solid numbers, as Arlington is a  bloody Band-Box.

Take David Murphy (OF) if he takes the LF job, and all signs point to yessir — he’ll put up stellar numbers.

Chris Davis (1B / 3B) lost his position as a sleeper the day he was born, so please dont ask.

Tampa Bay Rays

I cant seem to find a sleeper here; eveyrone on their squad should probably perform up to par. Ben Zobrist (OF / SS) qualifies at shortstop and could well snag the right field job, but I still woulnd’t count on that many AB. His power seemingly came out of nowhere and with a 13% LD rate and a corresponding .255 BABIP, things dont look particularly solid moving forward. He’s got a solid walk rate (13%) which negates most of his 20% strike-out rate.  Hrmm, it’s interesting.

Matt Joyce (OF) who’s penciled in ahead of Zobrist at RF could provide you with solid power numbers to go with a beautifully awesome .260 AVG. Joyce strikes out about a quarter to a third of the time, but he’s a true masher. Against righties Joyce should put up solid numbers, and maybe your league undervalues him.

If you can get Joyce on the cheap, you’ll be incredibly happy as he’ll put up great numbers.  Just dont over-pay, mind you — what is overpaying for 30HR in 500 AB?

Keep his name on your cheat sheet and snag him if the time is right.

Boston Red Sox

There’s no sleepers on this team, who are we kidding. If Ortiz gets dead, Rocco Baldelli (OF / DH) should put up solid numbers.

Cincinatti Reds

Jay Bruce (OF) is a sleeper, sort of — I tend to think he’ll be overvalued come draft day but there’s no way to dismiss his raw talent.  He’ll be thrown in with the rookies as he compares best to them.

I like Jerry Hairston Jr (OF / SS) to be a solid source of steals for your middle infield, assuming he can hold off newly arrived masher Johnny Gomes (OF). If Gomes can get himself 350 AB, he seems to hit 20HR.  If he can land a full time gig, expect those numbers to go up in the Great American Bandbox. Striking out 30% of the time isn’t optimal, but if the HR come with it — The Reds will take it.

The whole Reds’ team should play well, with Encarnacion putting up a few more dollars than he’s worth along with Brandon Phillips.  There’s no reason to not take a Red this year.

Colorado Rockies

You’ve gotta take anyone with talent pretty serious in Colorado.

Ian Stewart (2b? / 3b?) has entered the hype machine and as of January, Garrett Atkins is in LF?? Stewart’s not a sleeper, but he should produce and strike out given playing time.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF) the 243 tooled player acquired in the Holliday deal should rake given the chance.  I have him in my top 5 sleepers.  The man swings at everything, in the zone or outside of it and he strikes out too damn much but whatever.

Sometimes swinging at everything works — oh wait, you have to make contact when you swing at everything? Shit.  Gonzalez is still in my top 5.

Kansas City Royals

Mark Teahen (OF / 2B) is a solid player, and a half decent corner outfielder.  He is not a Second Basemen, but if the Royals switch him to second base as the rumours indicate — he may well be useful. Optimally, Teahan would gain second base eligibility and then return to the outfield but we’ll see. Teahan had a down year last year, and he’s still striking out at a 23% clip — so buyer beware.

Big Fat Billy Butler (1B / DH) and Kila Ka’Ailhue (1B / DH) along with Mike Jacobs (1B) should all see time.  Butler was everyones favourite sleeper last year, and Jacobs can just straight up mash. 25 to 30 homers seems about right for Jacobs, considering all things — but you’ll lose out on the counting stats. Ka’Ailhue should be interesting — i’m not sure if he’s a sleeper at this point or not, but boy can he hit.

Ka’Ailhue would have been a huge addition to any team if not for the Mike Jacobs trade, and maybe he’ll still contribute to a lesser extent. Maybe the youngster can sit down with Jacobs and explain to him why it’s beneficial to Walk almost as much, if not more, than you strike out.  Everything is there except playing time.

Alberto Collaspo (2B) just as a side note, i really like Alberto Collapso and whenever playing Baseball Mogul 2007? I made sure to add him to my team — he always got good around 2009.  Computers rule!

Detroit Tigers

Nothing seems to pop out about the Tigers. Maybe Gerald Laird (C) away from Texas? No thanks. Nice line-up though.

Minnesota Twins

Alexi Casilla (2B) isn’t a sleeper but should put up solid stats. If people start snoozing on Delmon Young (OF), this might be the year.  I’d be more than willing to take a risk on Young, banking that he finally put stuff together in his head.  Young’s got all the talent in the world but like so many of these uber-talented top-prospects, maybe his work ethic isn’t quite there.  I’m not going to predict 20 HR for Young, but you should know incredibly early in the season whether or not he’s going to continue grounding balls harmlessly into the outfield.

Nick Puntu (UTIL / Everywhere) should also contribute.

Chicago White Sox

Should be interesting.  Josh Fields (3B) can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown he can hit, yet. If Jerry Owens (OF) takes the CF job he should be a huge source of steals and more than likely Runs — if he can get on base at a decent clip.

I’m a big fan of super utility man Wilson Betemit (1B/3B/14G @ SS) but whether or not he gets playing time is a different story. His strike out rate is an ugly 25%, but I’d still give him a chance.

New York Yankees

Welcome to the hype-machine. Robinson Cano (2B) will bounce back but the only real sleeper here is Nick Swisher (1B / OF), who could well be dealt.

Swisher hit .219 last year, which is awful. Swisher generally doesn’t hit that well, and expecting more than .260 is goofy but boy does he walk. Expect a nice little return to the .375 range for Swishers OBP, and he’ll regain his .840 OPS form.

Swisher was apparently one of the most unlucky players in 2008, and many are predicting a rebound.

Very rarely do you see a players LD rate go up, while his BABIP dips 50 pts. If Swisher can find a way to get full time playing time, he’s a top 5 sleeper. I just don’t know how he does that in a crowded Yankees outfield — mind you, it’s a crowded AGING Yankees outfield.