Chris Coghlan

Chris Coghlan’s Heating Up

After last year’s Rookie of the Year performance, Coghlan’s ownership in Standard Yahoo! Leagues dipped well below 50% in 2010.  Even within Coghlan’s recent 9-game hit streak, owners have only added to him an extra 5% of leagues and his ownership now sits at exactly 49%.

Coghlan’s no longer freakishly useful — a toothless hooker robbed him of his second base eligibility (and dignity) — but as an outfielder leading off a Marlins line-up that just called up Mike Stanton, he’ll provide enough value to maintain Top-45 outfield value for the rest of the season.  In 12-team, 3-OF, 1-Util baseball leagues, this is enough to justify a starting outfield gig on most teams and definitely a bench-spot.

Over the past 14-days, Coghlan’s been a top-5 hitter in terms of batting average (.440) and a top-15 hitter in OPS (1.141).  However, much of this has to do with Coghlan’s ownership of the top spot in BABIP (.568) and will likely regress in the near future.  ZiPS predicts Coghlan to maintain his current .335 BABIP for the rest of the season which should come as no surprise to anyone that rode his .365 BABIP to a .321 BA in 2009.

However, even with Coghlan hitting 32.4% line-drives over the past two weeks, there are many warning signs:

• Coghlan’s still striking out almost a quarter of the time compared to 2009′s 15% K-Rate.
• Coghlan’s continued to walk a mere 6% of the time over the past two-weeks.
• After last year’s success, Coghlan’s seen fewer pitches inside of the strike-zone and has been unable to lay off the junk.  Coghlan’s O-swing has risen from 21.5% in 2009 to 27.8% in 2010.  Over his hit-streak, he continues to post a 25% 0-Swing Rate.
• As is almost always the case with young hitters that succeed, Coghlan’s also seeing fewer fastballs in 2010.  Additionally, he’s seen his proficiency drop against every off-speed pitch after posting positive against sliders, curveballs and change-ups in 2009.  Coghlan’s still handling the curveball well but his ability to handle the slider and change-up has taken a dip.

With all of that said, this still isn’t an Anti-Coghlan article.

Coghlan’s horrific start to 2010 has been documented but taking 107 plate appearances to acquire an extra-base hit bears repeating.  After an April that saw Coghlan post a .195 Batting Average, he’s steadily improved: .252 in May and now .500 through seven June games.

Despite Coghlan’s short-comings in 2010, he’ll contribute to your fantasy squad on almost all fronts.  Hitting atop the Marlin’s line-up should allow Coghlan’s ZiPS predicted .283 BA the rest of the way home to translate into a solid source of runs.  Coghlan’s also resumed his running ways — he posted 34 SB in AA in 2008 — by stealing seven bases thus far in 2010 after only recording eight in 2009.

An optimistic prediction for Coghlan the rest of the way:  .290 AVG / 55 R / 6HR/ 35 RBI / 13 SB — this would put him around .280 AVG/ 83 R / 9HR / 52 RBI / 20SB on the year.  These numbers are definitely playable in most formats and Coghlan still has some upside left in the tank.  He may not have a single category that stands out like last year’s batting average but he’ll contribute across the board.

Just remember, it was Coghlan’s second half that won him the ROY award.  Coghlan slumped in 2009 too and managed to hit over .370 after the All-Star break to take home the cheddar.  If you’re in a shallower league, I’d recommend paying attention to Coghlan’s BB:K rate before making the move to add him.

Chris Coghlan

Attack Of The Ugly Ducklings

I’m not a male chauvinist, I just play one on the internet.  Objectifying women through the use of debatably clever often drawn out metaphors is just something that I enjoy.  Blonde jokes too, it’s a shame they’ve become passe.  Occasionally I’ll wonder what a blond and a screen door actually do have in common, or what that same blond could have in common with a beer bottle.

I mention this because the fantasy baseball world is no better.  In what other game are grown men described as sexy?  In fantasy baseball, the younger, the better, the sexier.  The more a prospect can do at a younger age, the sexier he becomes to the fantasy baseball world.  It’s a strange universe, and we’re all part of it.  With that said, the sexy picks never seem to produce.  The tools are of course there, but they’re still too young to know what they’re doing.

Enter the ugly duckings and the revival of the old, unattractive, powerless, speedless, middle infielder.

Over the last month there’s been a plethora of ugly ducklings forging their way to the top of the rankings, starting with:

1. Mark Ellis – Oakland Athletics – 15% Owned – 33rd in Y!

Ellis has posted a disgusting slash-line for a 32 year old second baseman:  .357 AVG /.371 OBP /.561 SLG.  Oakland’s recent offensive boom has resulted in 17 R /  3 HR /  25 RBI and  2 SB for Ellis.  The walks aren’t there and I’d be surprised if Ellis keeps this up, but expecting 15 of both RBI and Runs the rest of way home is a very conservative estimate.

2. Christian Guzman – Washington Nationals – 34% Owned – 34th in Y!

Speaking of an inability to walk, Guzman can’t stand the free pass.  Guzman’s scored 22 runs while knocking in 18 over the past month.  Much like Ellis, Guzman will steal the occasional base here and there.  A slashline of .357 AVG / .388 OBP / .510 SLG has kept Guzman afloat.  Guzman opened the season hitting everything in sight and he’s definitely capable of prolonged .350+ average streaks.

3. Jhonny Peralta – Cleveland Indians – 63% Owned – 44th in Y!

Peralta used to be one of those young, sexy picks, but got old in a hurry.  His four home-runs in the last month could mean that the kid’s finally healthy.  Jhonny could easily go on a 6 or 7 HR binge between now and the end of the season, but if you’re in a strike-out league leave ‘em alone.

4. Luis Castillo – New York Mets – 10% Owned – 45th in Y!

Castillo’s one to definitely take a look at because if he’s healthy, he’ll run.  He’s always been able to hit the ball, and is getting on base at a fairly solid clip this year.  Those who ignore the old-farts may have looked past Castillo’s increased walk rate and OBP of .411 on the season!  The Mets are falling apart at the seams, but there’s still value.

5. Evereth Cabrera – San Diego Padres – 8% Owned – 46th in Y!

Cabrera’s too young to be an ugly duckling, but at this pace he’s well on his way there.  Nine stolen bases in the last month and 18 on the season look pretty good. Like his mentors above, he has next to no power.

6. Macier Izturis – Los Angeles Angels – 26% Owned – 86th in Y!

Anyone on the LAA is worth taking a look at, but Izturis and Aybar are just painful names to roster.  Izturis has hit 4 Dingers over the last month, but he’ll have troubles keeping that up.  He should be able to continue his run production given that potent Angels line-up.  You could do worse than a .300 hitter with 7 HR and 10 SB on the year.

7. Chris Coghlan – Florida Marlins – 25% Owned – 89th in Y!

Like ya boy Cabrera, Coghlan’s still a youngin’.  Coghlan brings a little bit of everything to the table but nothing’s gaudy enough to stand out.  The kid manages to get on base at a steady clip and when you’re on base in a playoff hunt, good things happen.

8. Felipe Lopez – Milwaukee Brewers – 69% Owned – 117th in Y!

We’ll end with Lopez who’s an ugly duckling with a single terrific feature.   The strange thing is that Lopez hasn’t even tried to steal bases, let alone reach the 20′s that fantasy owners expected.  At this point, he’s got a starting gig and he’s getting on base to score runs.  Goodtimes.

All of these guys are useful in pretty much any league, but because they don’t excel in any single category they end up flying under the radar.  Rostering a kid like Coghlan, even at a UTIL spot, is a great way to get across the board production.  These guys won’t stand out, but they’ll help you win just about any league.