I consider myself an expert in fantasy baseball yet I still feel obliged to provide detailed background information and a step-by-step analysis to help you understand how I’ve come to this particular conclusion.  Unfortunately, people don’t want to read incredibly verbose ramblings — they just want to know who to pick up and who to drop.

Alas, they start freaking out when players like Alexei Ramirez and Chris Davis start off slow and curse the websites that recommended them as draft-day steals. It’s for these people that I write this article, and I’d like to start out by saying, You Got What You Paid For.

There’s an incredible amount of statistics out there, and I’ve lamented about getting lost in them before. However, previous statistics are by no means prophecies, they’re merely indicators of what’s likely to happen.

The fantasy baseball community has become enthralled with statistics, and it’s almost impossible to find an article that doesn’t mention BABIP or OPS. However, if you’re not going to dig incredibly deep into the statistics to find out who a player really is, it’s probably best to just go off of the combo of pre-rankings and gut-feelings.

Alexei Ramirez

What The Experts Saw: 21 HR, 13 SB, .290 Batting Average, .475 SLG and only a 12% K-Rate.

You take a quick look at the statistics Alexei Ramirez put up in 480 AB, and they’re just ridiculous.  Looking at his 2008 statistics, it’s incredibly easy to predict a break-out year.

What The Experts Missed: Plate Discipline

42.7% O-Swing Percentage: Alexei Ramirez swung at almost 43 percent of pitches that were outside of the zone.  I’ve mentioned this before, but in 2008 only Vladdy Guerrero swung at more would-be balls.

A quick look at the top-10 reveals that free-swingers can succeed, but they have to be special, real special. To succeed with a lack of plate discipline, the player must have ridiculously quick hands.

Nothing’s changed in 2009 and Ramirez continues to sit amongst the leaders in first-pitch strike percentage. In 2008, Ramirez faced an 0-1 count 67.5% of the  time, and 2009 has seen that number increase to 69 percent.

With Ramirez’s lack of plate discipline there should have been more talk of a sophomore slump.  Unfortunately, the experts were so bullish on Ramirez’s potential that they over-looked his weaknesses.

Opposing pitchers have clearly caught onto Ramirez’s free-swinging ways, and have adapted.  In 2008, Pitchers threw Ramirez a league-average 51.4% of pitches inside of the strike-zone. With the book out on Ramirez, pitchers have adapted and are now throwing him a mere 42.5% of pitches for strikes.

Can Alexei Ramirez Adapt?

Ramirez is still swinging at 40 percent of balls outside of the strike-zone which is down 3 percent, but still well above league-average. Ramirez is also making less contact with the pitches outside of the zone.  His contact rate outside of the zone dropped from a respectable 70% to a downright nasty 64%.  None of these tendencies bode well for Ramirez, and they’ve come together to form the perfect-storm, resulting in a .157 Batting Average.

Ramirez has managed 4 walks thus far, which translates into a 15% BB-Rate.  It’s still far too early to tell, and the sample size is minuscule, but Ramirez is going to have to at least threaten pitchers with the possibility of a base on balls.  If Ramirez continues his free-swinging ways, he’s not going to get a single pitch to hit and he’ll continue to post awful numbers.

As I’ve maintained, this doesn’t mean Ramirez will be worthless for the remainder of the season; rather you just have to decide whether or not Ramirez is special and can adapt.  Ramirez is your prototypical mistake hitter and pitchers will continue to make mistakes from time to time, but unless Ramirez gives them a reason to throw strikes it’s going to be a long season for the Cuban Missile.

If You Went On Your Gut: If you caught 5 White Sox games last year, and didn’t bother looking at Alexei Ramirez’s advanced statistics — what would you say about him?

Boat-loads of potential. Swings at Everything. For Ramirez, Contact means Hard-Contact. Doesn’t walk.

Even the casual White Sox fan would give you that scouting report, it’s nothing special.  The next logical question is, What’ll happen when pitchers stop throwing him strikes?

This is what I call going on your gut — Watch a player, ask yourself a question — It’s really that simple.  Posing a few What Ifs? will go a long way in drafting a fantasy baseball team.

You may love looking at Ramirez’s Isolated Power, Batting Average on Balls In Play,  or Line Drive percentage but sometimes just watching a ball-player play ball can be far more useful.

…Next up is Chris Davis of the Texas Rangers, and then maybe Pablo Sandoval of the Giants — Realistically, all of these pre-season sleepers possess the same fatal-flaw:  Pitchers have all adapted to their free-swinging power-potential ways, and the book’s definitely out on them.  The question for all of them is whether or not they can counter-adapt.

So Carlos Gomez, Michael Bourn, and Nyjer Morgan aren’t available in your roto-league, what ever will you do?

Luckily for you, DeWayne Wise gone-done separated his shoulder diving for a catch.  Wise, the gamer that he is, got up to throw the ball after dislocating his shoulder and managed to toss the ball about 4 feet in typical 7-year old girl fashion.

Since Brian Anderson has rather large issues with maintaining a batting average over .230, the CF job may fall to newly recalled Jerry Owens.

Owens can boogy, but he’s probably not going to hit over .260-.270.  The projection robots have Owens hitting anywhere from .259 (CHONE) to .270 (Bill James & ZiPS)

Owens will sport a moderately tolerable .50 to .60 BB to K ratio. While this isn’t stellar, it at least helps to contribute to his lack-luster .330-.340 OBP.

Owens will have to get on base to steal, but once he’s there — the fun begins:

• Jerry Owens is quick-fast, and could easily swipe 6 bases in the 15 or so games 12 Weeks!!that Wise will miss. Edit: Apparently Grade III shoulder separations, mean that both ligaments were torn, and it’ll take 12 Weeks or longer for it to heal.  Possibly longer for full strength to return.. ruh roh. WikiLink Here: Grade III Shoulder Separation.
• The Southsiders really don’t have a lead-off man this side of Chris Getz, and Getz has issues of his own getting on base.  Getz’s is currently the proud owner of a .176/.286/.286
• Ozzie Guillen is crazy, and I think everyone has the green light, all the time.  I expect to see Paul Konerko match last-years career high of 2 SB

Unfortunately, Ozzie Guillen’s craziness cuts both ways.  I wouldn’t be even slightly surprised to see one-time prospect Brent Lillibridge play centerfield.

Either way, the most likely outcome is that Brian Anderson continues to be awful, and Jerry Owens Jr. manages to snag the lead-off spot.

If Owners grabs the lead-off spot, he should be quite useful in your fantasy league.  He’ll score runs, steal bases, and try his best not to kill your batting average.  Unfortunately, Owens considers .250 a success, a rip-roarin’ success.

If you said “YES! Nyjer Morgan, Carlos Gomez and Michael Bourn ARE GONE,” then you probably want to pick up Jerry Owens.

image courtesy of mandolux flickr

This is a good one, and I’m glad someone asked it.  Both of these players should contribute to plenty of fantasy teams in deep leagues, and have the potential to possibly even contribute to teams in shallow leagues — if everything goes well.

What we’re dealing with here is two late blooming second basemen, who both have a shot at contributing for 5 or so more years.  Hill’s coming in at 27 this year, and Getz will be 26 by the end of the year.

Aaron Hill’s been Toronto’s second basemen since essentially 2005, but has had his career thrown off course by post-concussion syndrome. As an added bonus, Aaron Hill enters the batters box to Ozzy Osbourne’s Iron Man which strangely enough provides an epic backdrop for my howls of  “I AM AARON HILL, lalalalala, AARON HILL”.

Chris Getz on the other hand is in a battle with former Braves prospect, Brett Lillibridge and equally as uninspiring Jayson Nix.  Jayson Nix appeared to have the edge on Getz until an injury side-lined him until late-April, early-May. Now it appears as though Getz has the second base job, with Cuban phenom, Alexei Ramirez switching from second base to shortstop.

Both Hill and Getz have a distinct risk of missing large chunks of playing time; Hill has his head, and Getz has competition for the job.

Batting Average and On-Base Percentage

Aaron Hill is easier to predict, as he’s had a good amount of Major League at-bats. Hill had posted consecutive .291 seasons in 2006 & 2007 before his disastrous 2008 season of hitting .263.

If Hill has returned to full health, we’re looking at a .285 hitter that’ll probably start off slow as he re-adjusts after missing nearly 100 games last year.

Other than Getz’s 2006 season in AA, he’s proven he’s a .300 hitter in the minors. He’s a scrappy little hitter that’ll probably come close to hitting .275-.280 in the show.

Both Hill and Getz walk at a rate of between 7 and 10 percent, and strike-out an acceptable 14-15% of the time.  What little room Getz gives up in batting average, he makes up for in walk-rate.  Hill and Getz should post similar .335-.345 OBP in 2009.

Home Runs and Slugging Percentage

While Aaron Hill displayed average power from the second base spot in 2007 posting 17-HR, he’s much more likely to display low-teens home-run power in 2009.  The same holds true for Getz, who’s career high was 11-HR in 404 AAA at-bats last year.

Hill gets the edge based solely on potential, as it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Hill top 15 home runs again, in 2009.

Counting Stats, Runs and RBI

I’m predicting Doom and Gloom for the Toronto Blue Jays this year, but Hill should at least put up half-decent Run totals with Wells, Rios, and Lind following him in the line-up.  A healthy Scott Rolen would mean a lot to this line-up, but when was the last time Scott Rolen was healthy?

The back-end of the Jays line-up will be hit and miss throughout the year, which’ll be reflected in Hill’s RBI totals.  The Blue Jays line-up is solid, but not spectacular in a division that is filled with about 10 different aces, not counting Roy Halladay. I tend to think that facing Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Beckett, Dice-K, Kazmir, Shields with the possibilities of Price, Smoltz, Bucholz and a healthy Andy Petitte is going to negatively effect all of the Blue Jays’ and Orioles’ stat-lines this year.

A fair expectation for Hill, assuming he sticks at the front-end of the Jays line-up is about 75-80 Runs, with 65-70RBI.

Christopher Getz on the other hand, could realistically bat anywhere in that aging, but nevertheless loaded, White Sox line-up. If Getz can bat early, he’ll be followed by Quentin, Dye, Thome, Konerko. With both Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher gone, the lead-off and number two spots in the line-up are up for grabs.

Brian Anderson is realistically the only other guy that could hit lead-off for this club, and he’s projected to get on base at a .300-clip.  Alexei Ramirez’s free swinging ways will have him hitting .290 but barely getting on-base greater than a .325 clip. It really looks like Chris Getz will bat in the 1 or 2 spot, if he can hold off Lillibridge and more importantly Nix.

If Getz does bat early in this line-up, expect big numbers. The possibility of 85 Runs scored in 140 Games is a very real one. If Getz can get on base, the crew behind him should be able to knock him home.  The RBI totals should be equally as solid with the back-end up the White Sox’s line-up consisting of Josh Fields, A.J. Pierzynski, or Brian Anderson.  I’d set my sites on 65 RBI, assuming Getz manages to hold onto the job all year.

Getz has a solid shot of matching Orlando Cabrera’s numbers from last year, as he hits for about the same average, gets on-base at about the same clip, and slugs at around the same percentage. Getz doesn’t possess Cabrera’s speed, but I doubt it’ll effect his scoring ability.

Getz also isn’t a whiney little bastard child, who tries to pan errors off on other players.

Cabrera’s numbers were 93R and 57 RBI, while he only got on-base at a .334 clip which Getz could easily eclipse.

America’s Midwest: Speed Capital of the Universe.

Getz has a clear-cut advantage in this category, as he’s predicted to steal 10 to 15 bases assuming he can get to the 400AB mark.  Aaron Hill while not slow,  will top out at about 10-12 stolen bases with a more aggressive Cito Gaston at the helm. A much more realistic projection is about 6 to 7 SB.

What little advantage Hill has in home-runs, he gives back in the speed department.  Realistically Getz and Hill with both put up mid-20′s combined HR and SB.

If Getz can keep hold of the job the entire year, 20+ SB isn’t out of the question.  Guillen’s allowing him run this spring, leading to Getz stealing 4 and only getting caught once.

Conclusion

This one’s a mess.  The second base position on the White Sox will outpace Aaron Hill by a good amount in 3 of the 5 categories, with the other two categories probably being a wash.

The problem posed however, is that the battle for the White Sox starting second base job is still quite uncertain.  It looks like Getz will at least start the year off as the full-time starter, but when Nix gets healthy the competition will resume.  Alexei Ramirez isn’t exactly stellar at shortstop, and Chicago’s offense is already loaded, which leads me to believe Ozzie Guillen may opt for a defensive second basemen. If Ramirez struggles in the field, there’s even the potential for Lillibridge to man short with Ramirez switching back to second.

Aaron Hill on the other hand, has displayed the potential to be rosterable in a 12-team mixed league, with 20-HR pop and a .290 average. However, the Blue Jays line-up just isn’t as enticing as the Sox.

Getz and Hill actually form a moderately successful platoon in deeper leagues, where drafting both is a solid strategy.  If Getz takes off as the starter for Chicago, feel free to drop Hill. Otherwise, Hill leaves you with a solid, predictable, second baseman to fill the hole.  Hill’s concussion problems have plagued him, but he’s went through spring training without any major headaches, or nausea.

Getz has posted a very solid .308/.379/.423 spring training with 1 HR and 4SB in 52 AB.  Hill on the other hand, whose Spring Training stats mean far less, has posted a .268/.362/.439 with 0 HR and 1SB in 41AB.

When comparing these two, you’ve got to ask yourself whether or not Getz can get to 120-140 games as the starter.  Even if Getz can hold down the job for 120 games; His numbers plus the numbers of the waiver-wire bait you pick up to fill the other 40 games will probably eclipse Hill.

If you’re thinking about Hill vs. Getz, you’re obviously in a fairly deep league; So it may make sense to hedge your bets and take the safer Aaron Hill.  If you have a propensity for risk though, or you’ve minimized your risk elsewhere — Getz is the pick.

In shallow leagues, where you’re looking for a high-risk / high-reward pick, Getz is also the pick.

By the way, what is the possessive of Sox...Sox? or Sox's?

Photo Courtesy of mlb.com

How’s life in America, Mr. Ramirez? Chicago’s a bit colder than Cuba, but the people are lovely aren’t they.  Hope you’re doing well and enjoying the immense hype surrounding you, because it’s about time you’re fed to the hype machine.

The White Sox nailed Ramirez down with a 4 year deal paying 4.75 million of its course.  At this point, the White Sox have already paid for Ramirez with the super-rookie season he turned in.  Ramirez is a tad on the old-side for a prospect, as he’s already 27, but he’s made the transition to the MLB perfectly.

Ramirez can play Shortstop, Second Base, and some Outfield.  He doesn’t particularly play any of those positions well, but his above-average athletic ability makes him passable at all of these positions.  Ramirez has stated he feels most comfortable playing Shortstop, and this looks like where he’s going to start 2009.

Onto the stats and the corresponding Scouting Report for Alexei Ramirez.

Four things stand out:

1. 21 Home Runs in 480 AB from the MI position
2. 13 Stolen bases even if he was caught 9 times
3. A .290 Average with only a .317 OBP which means an AWFUL 3.6% BB rate
4. He Swings at everything: 59.9% Swing Rate, 42.7% Outside the Zone Swing Rate

Chicago, we’ve got a problem. Generally, a players physical skills begin to peak at around the age of 27 and you get to the point where you are what you are. Alexei Ramirez definitely has some leeway with regards to this, as he’s only spent a year in the MLB.  You should know by August, whether or not his bad habits have caught up to him.

But August doesn’t help you, as fantasy leagues don’t draft in August.

Alexei Ramirez’s BABIP seems about right sitting at .296, for someone with his Line Drive Rate (16.6%) and his Swing Rate (59.9%).

When you look at players with 400 AB, Ramirez ranks only behind Vladimir Guerrero for swing percentage.  Delmon Young, Jeff Franceour, Bengi Molina, and Josh Hamilton are other notables with a Swing Percentage above 55 percent. Alexei Ramirez does make contact at an 81.4% clip, which is right in line with Guerrero.

Ramirez has garnered quite a few comparisons to another second baseman turned outfielder, that he mirrors physically: Alfonso Soriano.  Soriano comes in at 6’1 – 180lbs, while Ramirez is 6’3″ – 185lbs.

Soriano’s 54 percent Swing Rate is not much better than Ramirez’s 60 percent, so it appears the comparisons seem about right. In 2007 Soriano did swing at about 60 percent of pitches, so the difference is more than likely marginal.

In Soriano’s first full season (2001) when he was 25 years old he put up very similiar statistics to Ramirez.

First off, all the usual caveats apply. Different eras, Different players, only a year for a sample size, etc etc.

Soriano clearly has more advanced base running skills than Ramirez, but I’d argue that the difference in pure speed isn’t as great as the stolen base numbers project. Soriano isn’t a great pure base-stealer to begin with, so Alexei Ramirez really needs some work to improve on his sub-60 percent success rate.

Other than that, everything favors Alexei Ramirez. While Alexei Ramirez’s OBP is an awful .317, Soriano got by with a .304. Soriano did have a slightly better WALK rate, notching an awful 4.8% it’s really not that much better than Ramirez’s 3.6%. In Soriano’s next year, one of his best years, he only walked 3.2% of the time.

There is a difference in K rate however, which favours Ramirez.  Soriano put up a 22-percent K-rate while Ramirez put up a respectable 13%.  Combine that with Ramirez’s slightly better SLG percentage and Batting Average and we’ve got ourselves a pretty good comparison.

So what did Soriano do after his first full season?

While it’s probably ridiculous to expect 39 Home Runs, 128 R, 102 RBI, 41 SB, a .300 average, and a .880 OPS percentage — Short of the SB, it is possible.

Conclusion:

Alexei Ramirez has so many layers to him, and whether or not you consider him a sleeper depends on how deep you dig. If you just look at last year and expect him to improve on his rookie numbers, that may be a bit ignorant considering his hacking ways and low walk rate.

If you peel the layers back, you’ll notice that all signs point to him showing a lot of bad signs going forward.  Whether it’s the Walk Rate, The Swing Rate, The Base Running Skills or his label as a “fastball hitter”.  Pitchers will adapt to him, and start throwing him more junk if he’s swinging at everything. Can he adapt?

If you pull the layers all the way, you see that it’s indeed possible for a player with Ramirez’s skill set to make use of it.  While he wont hit 40 HR, he does have the raw power and bat-speed to make pitchers pay for mistakes.  Maybe he follows the career path of Soriano, and dominants before getting shifted to the outfield.  On the other hand, maybe he flops.

Verdict: Feed the Hype-Machine, but draft a safe back-up plan. If Pitchers get the book on Ramirez he’s going to fail, and fail badly. With shortstop being so deep, you can pick up a cheap 2-category guy as an insurance plan. Whether that’s stolen bases and runs, or batting average and mild production across the board — is up to you.

Photo Courtesy of Kimberly / Flickr