Gorzelanny sounds Italian, even if he was born in Evergreen Park, Illinois.  I’m not sure about you guys, but when it comes to veined Italian blue cheeses, Gorgonzola’s one of my favourites.  Whether it’s cow-milk or goat-milk based, Gorgonzola’s a very versatile cheese.  That’s my attempt at a nick-name for Gorzelanny — I’m sure Gorzilla or maybe even plain ol’ Gorzo might sound better, but here at freefantasymagazine, we appreciate cheeses.

With that said, Gorzelanny is available in almost every fantasy baseball league, even after putting up a 2.40 ERA over 15IP.  Opponents are only hitting .196 against Gorzelanny; which, when combined with 5BB, gives Gorgonzola a 1.07 WHIP.  Finally, we’ve got Gorzelanny throwing 14Ks in 15IP, which is good for a career high, 8.40 K/9 and 2.8 K/BB.

Obviously, these are early season statistics that aren’t exactly indicative of future performance but, with Zambrano being shifted to the bullpen for who knows how long, it looks like Gorgonzola will at least get a shot at out-dueling Carlos Silva.  That may sound like an easy feat, considering Silva’s lack of talent, but Big-Fat Silva has been just as good as Gorzelanny thus far.  Silva’s currently sporting an ERA and WHIP under 1.00 in 19IP thus far.  I’m sure he’ll eventually come back down to earth, but crazier things have happened:  Jarrod Washburn kept up the act for 133 innings in 2009.

Tom Gorzelanny hasn’t pitched a full season in the bigs since a very respectable 2007 with the Pirates.  That year, Gorzelanny topped 200IP and kept his ERA under 4.00 while recording about 6K-per-9.  Gorzelanny eventually played poorly enough to pitch his butt out of Pittsburgh and he and Grabow set sail for Chicago.

In Chicago, Gorgonzola has stepped it up, even if it’s yet to truly manifest itself. Although Gorzelanny posted a 5.63 ERA with Chicago last year, his Fielding Independent Pitching (normalized to ERA) [FIP] and xFIP (expected FIP based on regressed HR/FB) were much better than that.

Gorzo registered a 4.14 FIP and 3.64 xFIP which were driven by a 62.8 Left On Base Percentage, a .326 BABIP, and finally a 14% HR/FB rate.  In Gorzelanny’s 38IP in Chicago last year, very rarely did he have luck on his side.

In 2010, things haven’t been much better, but it’s only been 15 innings after all.  Gorzelanny’s FIP (2.14) is actually lower than his ERA once again, so what’s noticeable different?

Plate Discipline:

Since coming to the Cubs, Gorzelanny has induced more swings out of the zone (2009: 28.5% 2010: 37.7%) and lowered overall Contact% (09: 77% 10: 74%).  While in Pittsburgh, Gorzo was averaging around 20% O-Swing and 82% Contact-Rate.

This has resulted in an noticeable increase in Swinging Strike percentage (7.7% -> 10.7% in 2009 and 12.4% in 2010.)  Currently it’s impossible to tell whether this is just a result of a small sample size, a change in approach, or just better stuff.

Speaking of Stuff:

The Curveball is gone.

Gorzelanny was throwing the pitch about 10% of the time at about 75mph prior to 2009.  In 2010, the curveball is barely in his arsenal and is currently used as nothing more than a surprise pitch.  Based on the linear weights, the curveball was epically bad in 2008; so good riddance.

Gorzelanny is almost always going to his slider (33.3%) for an off-speed offering, while dabbling with the change-up (7.2%) when handedness permits.  The rest of the time, Gorzelanny is using his fastball.  Gorzelanny has also been sinking his fastball more often than throwing a straight four-seamer.

In essence, Gorzelanny has combined his slider and curveball into a slurve without losing velocity.  The new slurve has greater movement on both planes at the same speed.

In addition to the slurve, Gorzelanny’s change-up has always had terrific movement but that’s probably to be expected, given its velocity.

The End:

More movement on the fastball, such that it’s been deemed a two-seamer by many pitch classification systems

+

Transition of slider into slurve without losing velocity

=

Improved Pitcher.

How Good? I wouldn’t be surprised to see him flirt with a 3.75 – 4.00 ERA if given the opportunity.  For the time being, I’d expect success for at least a couple starts as hitters begin to adjust to him.

Derrick Lee has been on fire over the past couple weeks, literally smash-killing at every opportunity.  Lee’s seven homeruns and .415 average over the past two weeks is helping fantasy owners put together incredible playoff runs.

Derrick Lee’s 2009 season is of great importance in the fantasy world, much more important than it is in Chicago.  After the steroid era, I was unsure as to how players would age.  Playing fantasy baseball during the steroid hooplah really jades your opinions of players:  You fully expect players to produce solid numbers well into their late-30′s.  However, with banned substances on the down-low in the past year, it made sense to draft a group of players that were entering their baseball prime (27-30).

I assumed that Derrick Lee and other players born in the mid-70′s would experience a drop-off sooner than guys like Jim Thome and Gary Sheffield did.  Alas, Lee’s on his way to posting numbers reminiscent of his terrific 2005 season.

There’s almost no difference between the current version of Derrick Lee and the 2007 and 2008 versions, yet he’s up across the board in almost every statistical category.  Lee’s managed to avoid the little swing-hindering injuries this year though.  Maybe it really is just that simple.

Derrick Lee’s striking out and walking at almost the exact same percentage.  Even Lee’s BABIP is inline with historical marks.  Derrick Lee is just hitting the ball harder (.227 ISO in 2009).  Lee’s Home Runs are a result of more flyballs and a higher homerun-to-flyball ratio, but that’s more than likely the result rather than the cause of his increased power.

Lee’s seeing an equal amount of fastballs and offspeed pitches and his plate discipline numbers are scary close to his historical average, so what gives?  He’s just killing the fastball, posting a wFB/C of 2.62, the highest since his 2005 season.

That’s about it, I just had to mention Derrick Lee’s incredibly Projection System defying season. Bill James had Derrick Lee hitting the most home-runs at the start of the season, predicting 24 dingers.  Welp, through 483 AB, Derrick Lee has managed to hit 33 HR.

I figured with the closer shake-up in Chicago, I’d address the situation.  Eric Karabell over at ESPN.com starts yickin’ and yackin’ about Carlos Marmol’s control issues.

I’m surprised Kevin Gregg lasted this long with six blown saves and a four and a half earned run average to be honest.  Gregg’s longevity more than anything effected Marmol in 2009. Marmol’s always had his problems walks, but it’s never been this bad.  Marmol’s currently walking almost a full batter per inning pitched (8.31 BB/9).

As Spring Training came to a close, it was fairly clear that Marmol was disappointed with his role on the team.  At least to me, it seemed like Marmol had been appointed the “closer in waiting”. Furthermore, it seems like Carlos Marmol just doesn’t care as much as he used to.  Proclamations like this fly in the face of just about everything else that I write, but they’re equally as plausible.

This is why I’d be trying to get Carlos Marmol, if at all possible.  If the Cubs and Piniella give him a little bit of a leash, he could dominate. Marmol still throws hard, still has a nasty slider, and still brings the gas.

Karabell obviously proposes Angel Guzman as an option and that makes a lot of sense.  In most leagues, Marmol’s probably stuck on the bench of someone who gave up 2 months ago, so Guzman may be your only option.  At first glance, it appears as though Guzman’s getting fairly lucky leaving 86% of batters on base and posting a .217 BABIP.  Guzman does have the giddy-up and stuff to dominate during the dog-days.  Of course none of this matters if the Cubs continue their free-fall.

If Marmol is just disinterested, it’ll probably take him a bit to regain his form.  If he’s available and you can spare a bench spot for a week, it makes a lot of sense to take a flier and let him ride the pine for a week or so.

Coming into the season, I had a rather unhealthy obsession with three pitchers, each from a different tier: Zach Greinke in the top tier worked out well, Chris Young has dissappointed thus far as a mid-tier starting pitcher, and Rich Hill has found his way back to the big leagues which I’ll deem a rather large success.

This is why I love Rich Hill, just incase you weren’t a fantasi-holic back in 2007:  11-8, 195 IP, 183 K, 3.92 ERA, and a 1.19 WHIP. Unfortunately, Rich Hill lost it in 2008, essentially Rick Ankiel-ing the situation. Rich Hill managed to walk 18 batters in 19.2 IP, yet somehow posted a 4.12 ERA. Injuries and ineffectiveness sent Rich Hill to the minors, where instead of improving he deteriorated into a shell of his old self, walking 28 batters in 26 IP.

An off-season trade to the Orioles and a brief, yet consistently wild, stint in the minors later, and Rich Hill has found himself back in the Show.  Hill’s return to the MLB has more to do with the current state of the Orioles’ pitching than his success in Triple-A.  Yes, Hill did post a sparkling 1.35 ERA in 13.1 IP down on the farm, but he also continued his wild ways, walking 9 batters over that stretch.

I still love me some Rich Hill though, not because he’s a fireballer (he only hits 90mph,) but instead because he’s got one dirty-dirty 12-6 Curveball.

Four starts in, and Rich Hill’s sitting on a 4.15 ERA, a 2-and-0 record, after having faced the Royals, Nats, Blue Jays and Mariners.  While the Blue Jays spanked Hill for 7 Runs (6ER,) Hill’s yet to walk more than 4 batters in a game — Good Start!  What really opened the Fantasy Gods’ eyes was Hill’s most recent start against the best team in the Pacific Northwest — Yooooouurrr, Seattle Mariners. Hill went 7 Innings, holding the Mariners scoreless, while only giving up 2 hits and 3 WALKS! and striking out seven! He did only strike out Beltre x 2 (18% K Rate,) Balentien x2 (24.5% K Rate,) Branyan (30% K Rate,) Rob Johnson (29% K Rate) and Mike Sweeney (13% K Rate,) so it’s really not saying ALL that much, but it’s a start.

Hill’s fastball is sticking around the velocity that made him effective as a Cubbie (89mph AVG, 91 MAX) in his most recent start against the Mariners.  Furthermore, while Hill’s not pounding the zone, he’s close enough on most of his fastballs to warrant a giant exhale:

Location of Rich Hill vs. Seattle Mariners

Against a more disciplined team at the plate, Hill may run into some trouble but we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.  For now, he appears to be close enough to the zone, especially when he needs to be, to keep his walk total under 4 batters per 9.  What’s interesting is Hill’s release point — While I didn’t watch the game, I did notice Rich Hill has dropped down to throw an off-speed offering:

Rich Hill's Release Point Vs. Mariners

Rich Hill’s release point is fairly well clustered, and should lend credibility to my man-crush.  When a pitcher loses it, it’s almost always release point / mechanics oriented, at least to start.  In the end, it obviously becomes a mental issue which is often harder to fix, even against lesser competition in the minors.

Hill’s fastball is painfully straight, so he has to rely on changing speeds and locating.  Once Hill starts mixing in his Change-Up and Slider, to previous rates — he should give himself a bit more leeway.

Prior to his Seattle start, Hill averaged a mere 88 mph on his fastball against the Jays and only hit 89mph on four occasios. In the start before that against the Nats, Hill only hit 89mph once and averaged 86.8mph.  This is what makes Hill hitting 90mph against the Mariners on eight different occasions, such a solid indicator of Hill putting it all together.

The days of Rich Hill posting a sub-1.20 WHIP are probably over, and even if they aren’t — it’ll be a pleasant surprise.  However, if Rich Hill can get his BB-per-9 to somewhere around the 3.5 range, he’ll have the potential to be quite effective. Facing the toughest division in baseball on a weekly basis probably won’t help, but it’s not that out there to predict a 4.05 ERA and 1.30 WHIP with 7 K per 9…. is it?

It probably is, but this is why I love Rich Hill.

Just incase you were wondering, the Orioles have Oakland, Seattle, Atlanta, the Mets, Philly, Florida and Washington coming up before they get back into the teeth of the AL EAST.  I’m sure you could find 3 or 4 good starts for Hill in that stretch, with some of them being sans designated hitter.

Geovany Soto followed up his  1.100 OPS cup-of-coffee (60 PA) in 2007 with a Rookie Of The Year performance in 2008.  Big things were expected from Soto entering the 2009 season; fantasy experts generally had him in their top-60 overall and the third or fourth best catcher available.

North Side Chicago Gang Sign For Expressing One's Home Run Total

The 2009 season hasn’t been nearly as kind to Soto: Injuries and ineffectiveness have left him ranked as the 922nd best player in a standard Yahoo Fantasy Baseball League. After a recent hot-streak in which Soto went 21-for-73 in the month of May, Soto raised his Batting Average and On-Base-Percentage to .218 and .333, respectively.

Unfortunately, Soto still only slugged .370 in May; barely raising his season SLG to .277. Soto’s lack of power is inexplicable and he hasn’t hit a home-run since May 13th — his first and only.

Soto’s entire year has been inexplicable and his advanced statistics fail to shed any light on the situation.  Starting with batted-ball statistics, it’s pretty clear that Soto’s been unlucky but not to the point where you’d expect such disappointing roto-stats.

Batted Ball

BABIP: Soto had a .337 BABIP in 2008, and was expected to post somewhere in the region of .320 this year.  Unfortunately, Soto’s currently batting .278 on balls-in-play which is roughly 50pts below expectations.  While it’s obvious that Soto got a little lucky in 2008, a .278 BABIP is by no means a poor number and fails to fully explain Soto’s slump.

HR/FB: After posting a fairly average 14.7% HR/FB in 2008, Soto’s 2.9% HR/FB in 2009 isn’t exactly what was expected.  Wrigley Field in the Spring generally suppresses HR numbers as the wind blows in off Lake Michigan, but bad luck also players a factor.  Wrigley’s currently the 12th best hitting park, but the 12th worst HR park in the bigs, FYI. Courtesy of ESPN Park Factors.

Whether or not these two factors account for such a discrepency isn’t clear cut, but should give you a little confidence in Soto going forward as the rest of his indicator statistics are in line with last year.

Line Drive: Soto’s line-drive percentage is actually 0.7% higher than his 2008 number of 21.0%.

GB/FB: Soto’s hitting a few more ground balls, but his 1.06 GB/FB is well within career norms.

Pitches Seen:

Classification: Soto’s seeing a similiar pitch selection with the only difference being about 3% more cut-fastballs.  Much like 2008, Soto’s amongst the lead-leaders in off-speed pitches seen.  In 2009, of qualifying players with 140 PA only Soriano, Howard, Francoeur, Duncan, Blalock, Blum, Hart, I-Rod, and the Cuban Missile, see fewer fastballs than Geovany Soto.

Ball/Strikes: There is a small difference in the number of strikes that Soto is seeing.  After throwing Soto a league-average 51% of pitches in the zone in 2008, opposing pitchers have resorted to throwing Soto 47.1% of pitches in the zone in 2009.

Plate Discipline: Soto’s adapted to opposing pitchers quite well, actually better than I ever would have expected. Pitchers are throwing less strikes, but Soto’s swinging at less Balls — He’s seen his O-Swing drop from 20.1% to 18.6%.   Soto’s making almost identical contact as last year, both inside and outside of the zone and has actually seen his contact percentage jump a couple points to 76%.

BB%, K%, BB/K : Soto’s actually walking almost 3% more than last year, striking out a full percent less, and posting a 0.68 BB/K in 2009 after posting a 0.51 BB/K in 2008.

Conclusion:

Almost everything’s the same as last year except the statistics that matter in fantasy baseball.  The BABIP and HR/FB don’t account for the entire drop-off, but they do factor into it.  Quite frankly, there’s no empirical data that explains Soto’s slump and this could well just be a nagging injury that’s robbed Geovany of his power.

Whenever there’s no damn good reason for a player to suck, you’ve gotta assume they’ll bust out of the slump or end up on the DL for the entire year.  The fact that Soto’s plate discipline and walk rate haven’t suffered during his slump is indicative of a break-out looming.

Buy low, if you can -- It’ll be another week or two before he gets his SLG and AVG up to respectable levels, but a multi-HR series will definitely raise his price in a hurry.  This definitely isn’t your typical sophomore slump, but rather a combination of bad luck and nagging injuries — I think?

At 6’5 / 218lbs with good body control, Samardzija should be a solid jump-ball artist and red-zone target at the next level. Samardzija is your prototypical possession receiver, and gets a solid release off the line.

..wait, Samardzija picked the Cubs instead of the NFL? I guess that makes sense when you run a 4.62 / 40 Yd Dash.  It worked out for Drew Henson, right?

Stat time!

SKILLS

So, first off what the hell happened when Samardzija hit AAA last year? For some reason Jeff decided to become a solid pro-prospect and put up respectable K/9 numbers after a couple seasons of mediocre numbers.

The K/9 numbers hung in there at almost a strike per inning, once he arrived in the bigs.  It’s pretty tough to judge Samardzija based on 70 Innings Pitched between AAA and the MLB.

The 1.40 WHIP and 4.88 BB per 9 aren’t pretty stats, and maybe he’ll improve on them, or maybe he’ll continue making power-pitching rookie  mistakes.

However, a big HOWEVER, Samardzija has the tools to work with:

95 MPH fastball, 83MPH slider, 85MPH change-up, and a 85mph Splitter.

Samardzija also has a 2-seam fastball, which like his 4 seamer, has a good amount of action on it. It may be Samardzija’s addition of the Splitter that’s brought him up to the bigs, and increased his K-Rate.

That’s what gets my vote anyways. I’d like to look into the PFX data on his change-up, but that’ll have to wait. He doesn’t appear to hide the change-up at all, and a full off-season and camp should help with that.

Samardzija has the stuff to excel, it’s just a matter of controlling it which will take time.  I’d like to see him spend a full year in Triple-A, but he’s in that in-between phase.

Opportunity

According to the Chicago Tribune, Samardzija at least hopes to be the Cubs 5th starter. So, at least that’s good.  Hopes and dreams make for all-stars!

Unfortunately, the only shot that Samardzija has to start is nabbing that number 5 spot. The Cubs rotation is pretty much set in stone, at least until an injury:

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Rich Harden
3. Ryan Dempster
4. Ted Lilly

So, who’s Samardzija battling with for that number five spot?

1. Sean Marshall
2. Aaron Heilman
3. Chad Gaudin
4. Angel Guzman
5. Kevin Hart
6. FREE AGENT / TRADE

Starting with Guzman and Hart, Samardzija has probably a better shot than either of those two.  Everyone’s inexperienced, and Samardzija has got the inside track. Guzman used to be considered front-line starter material, so keep an eye out.

Heilman and Gaudin, are also probably best stuck into the same group.  Heilman went from being Seattle’s potential closer to a Chicago Cub without a job. I’m not quite sure why the Cubs would have traded Olson for Heilman if they planned on filling that SP #5 with them. To me, it seems like it’s almost guarenteed that Heilman is going to be traded again — or — work in a relief role.

Gaudin has started before, and he’s good in spurts.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gaudin land the spot starter role, on this club. It’s almost a given that someone on the Cubbies rotation is going to get hurt for a length of time; So Gaudin will step in.

This still leaves that number five starting pitcher spot open, wide open.

Marshall, Samardzija, Free Agent

Marshall used to be quite the prospect, and he’s a servicably back-end starter at this point.  He’s got more experience than Samardzija and he’s also got the benefit of being another lefty. Right now, It’s about as much of a coin-flip as you could ever imagine. Pitchers and Catchers will report in a couple days, so this may actually be a battle that’s waged during Spring Training.

Free Agent / Trade?

I’m considering this a pretty realistic option, as the market is still doing it’s thing.  Ben Sheets is obviously tarnished goods at this point.

Heilman could have been picked up from the Mariners to be swung in a Peavy? trade. Right now it seems downright IDIOTIC, that the Cubs would have traded Felix Pie for Aaron Heilman — somethings got to be in the works, right?

Peavy trade situation courtesy of MLB.com, says maybe the trade will go down after the Cubs sale.

and here’s the Sun Times’ take as of the end of January

The problem with the Peavy deal is that the Cubs are running out of back-up plans.  The lower-tier free agent pitchers are now starting to get signed, as pitchers and catchers report to camp in under a bloody week. Pedro’s still out there, but do the Cubs need another Injury risk?

Verdict:

I’d put Samardzija at about a 1/3 shot of breaking camp with the job.  That doesn’t particularly mean he’ll have no value though.

If the Cubs don’t get Peavy, then Samardzija has a shot of making the rotation in the first month of the season.  Someone will get hurt, and/or Marshall may suck it up.

Maybe Gaudin gets the first shot at the Spot-Starter Role, maybe not.

I’d have to say feed the machine, but your league better be deep as all hell. I can think of plenty of other pitchers I’d gamble on.

Photo Courtesy of TheWestEnd

Top 100 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009: Eleven to Thirty.

#11 John Lackey – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 11-9, 141K, 3.81ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.25 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.75 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 130K, 7.16 K:9, 3.25 K:BB

Bill James isn’t kind to John Lackey, and his predictions seem a bit low to me. Lackey has a good chance to raise his K:9 to at least 8 or 9 which combined with 200-220 IP should lead to a 200K season.

His other ratios have continued to improve throughout his career, so expecting a season of 8K per 9, and 2BB per nine seems about right. Along with a decent WHIP of 1.20ish, and a decent ERA.

He put up an ERA of 3.01 in 2007, and I wouldn’t be surprised if he drops it below 3.00 after a full year of recovery from his strained bicep issue of 2008.

This list is obviously more about value than actual draft position. John Lackey may not be drafted as the 11th best pitcher — but he’ll more than likely produce at this level. I’m not sure how long you can wait on Lackey as he looks to be bouncing up draft boards.

#12 Felix Hernandez – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 11-12, 188K, 3.86ERA, 1.35WHIP, 8.25 K:9

2008: 9 W, 3.45 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 175K, 7.85 K:9, 2.19 K:BB

I find it hard to believe that Hernandez will settle into a career WHIP of 1.35-1.40. In 2008, he walked 3.59 batters per nine innings which is up from 2.51 the year before.

Hernandez has some of the best stuff in the league, and last year was just a mess for the entire Seattle organization. It’s not unthinkable that Hernandez will drop his walks back down to the mid-to-low twos.

If Hernandez can stop walking batters, he’ll become the dominant pitcher that everyone’s been waiting for. A decrease in BB would probably result in a drop in ERA, and obviously WHIP.

An ERA of 3.35, and a WHIP of under 1.30 is a good possibility. I think this is the year Hernandez really puts it together and capitalizes on his unbelievable talent.

There’s obviously a good amount of risk here, but pitching at Safeco eliminates a chunk of that risk. It’s somewhat worrisome to see his Line Drive percentage rising over the past few years.

#13 Scott Kazmir – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 10-8, 177K, 3.80ERA, 1.35WHIP, 9.83 K:9

2008: 12 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 166K, 9.81 K:9, 2.37 K:BB

Once again, Kazmir comes with a bit of risk. Kazmir is a guy that can put up almost 10K per 9, along with a 1.25ish WHIP. However, expecting a full 220 innings from him is a bit of a reach.

Currently, I’m banking on about 200 IP from Kazmir in 2009. As with Lincecum is just scary to see such a small guy throw the ball 90+ MPH. Kazmir also has a dirty slider to go with his 92mph heat.

As with Sabathia, Halladay and Beckett, I’m somewhat worried about AL East Pitchers. The offenses are now so stacked that there isn’t a break in the schedule.

Who knows how many wins Kazmir will garner, but I expect a pretty solid 2009 season from Scott Kazmir.

#14 Zack Greinke – SP – KC Royals

Bill James Prediction: 12-10, 156K, 3.98ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.24 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.47 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 183K, 8.14 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

I’m about as high on Zack Greinke as one can get. Hell, I”ll finance Greinke’s depression meds if he ever falls back off the wagon.

When Greinke came into the league, he was supposed to be the next big thing — then he shat the bed, developed social anxiety, and just stopped caring.

Now, Greinke is back and fulfilling his potential. If anyone comes out of nowhere to post a 2.50 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, and 220 Ks — It’s Zack Greinke.

Greinke has four damn good pitches, with his fastball pushing 94-95ish on a good day. He has amazing control, and I have a pretty big man crush on him.

One of my favourite websites, The Hardball Times, has a great article on Greinke. Apparently I’m not the only one in love with Greinke.

Realistically, I’d be willing to rank Greinke as high as 9th on this list if he starts shooting up expert charts. I’d have absolutely no problem trading Zack Greinke for Josh Beckett straight up. He’ll give you a good return on investment, wherever he’s drafted.

#15 Cliff Lee – SP – CLE Indians

Bill James Prediction: 14-9, 146K, 3.90ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 6.77 K:9

2008: 22 W, 2.54 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 170K, 6.85 K:9, 5.00 K:BB

I’m not a Cliff Lee fan, but I’m not sure how much further I can drop him after his 2008 Cy Young season. Who knows what kind of win totals Lee will put up in 2009, but Cleveland still has a good bullpen that’s been bolstered by the acquisition of Kerry Wood.

I still think Lee is risky, though. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him drop a 4.00 ERA on his owners. Lee’s always put up solid WHIP numbers, but when you examine last year in detail it just doesn’t seem sustainable.

Lee allowed less than half a HR per 9 and dropped his BB per 9 down to 1.37 after averaging around 1+ HR/9 and somewhere between 2.5 and 4 walks per 9.

Cliff Lee may have a Cy Young award to his credit, but he’s as risky as anyone. Bill James has as good of a guestimate as anyone, so I’ll go with that. If Lee does put up those numbers though, he doesn’t deserve to be drafted this high. Lee’s probably going to get drafted too high based on name recognition anyways, so none of this even matters at 15th overall.

#16 Chad Billingsley – SP – LA Dodgers

Bill James Prediction: 12-9, 189K, 3.69ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 8.81 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.16 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 201K, 9.03 K:9, 2.49 K:BB

Chad Billingsley is another sexy strike out guy that carries at least a bit of risk with him. As with Felix Hernandez, Billingsley’s risk is minimized by the ballpark he pitches in.

Generally, I’d sacrafice a bit of talent for a pitcher-friendly park or a weak schedule. Billingsley has all three. The teams in the NL west aren’t great. Most of the parks out there are extreme pitchers parks (SD, LA, SF) and Billingsley has crazy potential.

On the other hand, Billinglsey has some serious control issues. Billingsley can barely keep his walks per nine on the right side of 4.00 let alone 3.00.

Billingsley isn’t going to have a stellar WHIP because of this, and you’re probably going to be stuck with a 1.30, if you’re lucky.

Billingsley does make up for it with his crazy K:9 numbers, striking out more than a batter an inning which keeps his K:BB ratio at a respectable 2.50.

Billinglsey should improve this year, and I’d imagine his main focus would be control.

#16 Ricky Nolasco – SP – FLA Marlins

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 176K, 3.98ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.73 K:9

2008: 15 W, 3.61 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 186K, 8.06 K:9, 4.51 K:BB

I’m torn on Ricky Nolasco: There’s a lot of upside, but there’s a huge amount of risk.

There’s really no data to go off of, and if you draft him you’re more than likely in for a bumpy ride / sophomore slump. However, he put up great numbers, in what was essentially his first full season in the majors.

He put up such great ratios last year, and he pitches in such a pitchers park that he should be worth the cash-money. While I personally wouldn’t draft him in front of the next few guys he does have the potential to finish here with even the slightest increase in stats.

He’ll be much cheaper than the big name guys like Burnett, Lester, Vazquez and even Volquez.

At this point it becomes quite difficult to get high strikeout and low whip pitchers and his finish to the 2008 season is just too hard to look past.

#18 James Shields – SP – TAM Rays

Bill James Prediction: 14-10, 178K, 3.65ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 7.56 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.56 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 160K, 6.70 K:9, 4.00 K:BB

Shields isn’t sexy and it’s iffy for him to pass 200K, but he should put up a stellar WHIP and ERA.

Some fantasy players end up falling in love with strikeouts and don’t pay nearly enough attention to a .10 decrease in WHIP or ERA. It’s easy to see the difference between 220 Ks and 190 but it’s a bit more difficult to wrap your head around the difference between a 1.35 and 1.19 WHIP.

It’ll be interesting to see whether 2008′s decrease in K rate is a permanent drop or just a temporary abberation. If Shields keeps his K:9 above 7.5 he’ll put up some great stats.

Shields stands out due to his gaudy K:BB ratio: 4.00K:BB is a great ratio for someone who strikes out as many batters as Shields does.

#19 Daisuke Matsuzaka – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-8, 174K, 3.58ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.51 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.90 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 154K, 8.27 K:9, 1.64 K:BB

Dice-K is the Tracy McGrady of fantasy baseball. Just as McGrady will put up 20pts and 10 rebounds on 6-23 shooting; Dice-K will go and put up a 2.90 ERA while walking 5 batters per nine innings.

Each and every one of Dice-K’s stats lead you to believe that he’s primed for an off-year. A walk rate of 5.05 per 9, a BABIP of .267, a Left on Base percentage of 80.6% and a HR/FB ratio of 6.1 percent.

However, you get the feeling that if Dice-K stops nibbling on the corners and just pitches using his vast reservoir he’ll be just fine. He probably wont repeat his stellar 2008 season, as he was incredibly lucky, but he should be fine.

All of this is probably pointless considering that some fool will draft Dice-K far earlier than warranted.

#20 Francisco Liriano – SP – MIN Twins

Bill James Prediction: 11-8, 171K, 3.62ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 9.27 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 57K, 7.93 K:9, 2.09 K:BB

I’m making a habit of ending each list with a massive injury risk.

Liriano missed 2007 with Tommy John surgery after an incredible 2006 in which he posted a 2.16 earned run average, a 1.00 walks/hits per innings pitched, and a remarkable 10.71 strikeouts per 9 in 28 games and 121 innings.

In 2008, not quite a full year removed from TJ surgery, Liriano started the season struggling mightily. After a minor league rehab stint, Liriano came back and showed flashes of his previous self.

There’s reason for concern as well as optimism with Liriano going forward. Last year, he shied away from using his devastating slider too much in order to protect his elbow. Now two years removed from surgery, he’ll hopefully be back to normal but you should keep an eye on his velocity and pitch selection to know for sure.

In 2005 and 2006 Liriano threw his fastball about 45% of the time at around 95 MPH. In his first year back, he threw it more (54%) at a lower velocity (91MPH)

To preserve his elbow he threw his slider 26% of the time at 84MPH in 2008 which is much less than the 37% and 87MPH he threw in the previous two years.

With Liriano, it comes down to velocity and pitch selection. You’ll be able to tell quite early in spring training whether or not he has it this year. Liriano is still a great pitcher when he throws his FB at 91 and his slider at 84 — but he’s not the 10+ K per nine guy, who’ll win you a fantasy league.

#21 Yovani Gallardo – SP – MIL Brewers

Bill James Prediction: 13-9, 141K, 3.61ERA, 1.30WHIP, 9.23 K:9

2008: 0 W, 1.88 ERA, 1.25WHIP, 20K, 7.50 K:9, 2.50 K:BB

Gallardo was primed for a break-out 2008 season, and then his ACL exploded while covering first base. Unlike just about every other sport, an ACL injury isn’t a career changing injury for a starting pitcher. Gallardo actually stayed in the game and recorded five outs after tearing his knee up.

Gallardo managed to come back from knee surgery to pitch seven innings in the 2008 playoffs.

With that said, Gallardo has buckets of talent and should come close to a strikeout per inning. He should be fully healthy by spring training, and more importantly regained complete faith in his knee. You’d have to imagine he’d probably improve on his K and BB numbers.

He’s one of the top young pitchers in the game and Bill James and CHONE have him at 9.30 K per nine, while MARCEL has him at 8K:9IP.

There’s obviously some risk here, as Gallardo has only pitched 134 innings in the show. With such a small sample size, anything could potentially happen. Gallardo’s been around for what seems like a while, but he’s still only going to be 23 when the season rolls around.

There is the potential that Gallardo starts to get too much fantasy hype rolling into the 2009 season. Anything higher than 18th or 19th is really just too high for Gallardo. He has the talent to be a top 10 pitcher, but he also comes with a bunch of risk. Liriano probably has a bit more talent, along with a bit more injury risk than Gallardo. Gallardo’s risk is probably composed of 25% injury and 75% lack of data.

#22 Ervin Santana – SP – LA Angels

Bill James Prediction: 12-11, 177K, 3.90ERA, 1.28WHIP, 7.59 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.49 ERA, 1.12WHIP, 214K, 8.79 K:9, 4.55 K:BB

Santana put up some great numbers last year, as he finally put everything together. It all seems to come down to the number of batters walked, and essentially BB:9.

Santana walked fewer batters in 2008 (47) than in 2007 (58) while pitching 70 more innings. His BB:9 went from 3.5 in 2007 to under 2.0 in 2008.

I’m not sure where this came from, other than the fact he was getting a 67% first strike, and getting batters to swing 32 percent of the time at pitches out of the zone (O-Swing%).

It looks like Santana should be able to maintain his success, but he’s 26 yet somehow managed to add a good chunk of velocity across the board. I’m not certain how easy it is to add velocity after a certain age, but the usage of performance enhancing drugs definitely crossed my mind. Increased work ethic would probably be a better way to explain the increase in velocity, but its hard to ignore PEDs as a possibility in this day and age.

Just for the record, his Fastball the past 4 years: 93.4mph, 93.1mph, 92.2mph, 94.4mph.

His Slider, same period: 81.0mph, 80.9mph, 81.0mph, 83.9mph.

#23 Ben Sheets – SP – Free Agent

Bill James Prediction: 13-8, 159K, 3.39ERA, 1.15WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 13 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.15WHIP, 158K, 7.17 K:9, 3.36 K:BB

SURGERY FOR MR SHEETS.  CHECK BACK in the DOG DAYS!

I’m not sure where Ben Sheets is going to go, nor am I sure if he’ll stay healthy enough in 2009 to pitch 200 innings.

There’s a lot of possibilities with Ben Sheets though, and you’ll probably want to cash in on it. Sheets will more than likely go to a contender, and be assured at least a few wins throughout the season.

As with many of the elite pitchers, drafting Ben Sheets is essentially a referendum on whether or not he’ll stay healthy.

Since Sheet’s unbelievable 2004, he hasn’t been able to stay healthy. His 2004 season was jaw dropping, as he posted a 2.70 ERA to go with 264 strikeouts. In 2008 he almost reached 200 innings, but his K numbers dropped drastically.

From a high of 10K per nine in 2004, Sheets has slowly declined to his 2008 total of 7.17K per nine. Sheets still has the talent to put up a K per IP, and it’ll be interesting to see whether or not the decline continues.

Hopefully Sheets can bounce his K rate up to at least 8K per 9, and he’ll be golden. Keep an eye on where Sheets goes this off-season.

#24 Matt Cain – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 192K, 3.57ERA, 1.30WHIP, 8.11 K:9

2008: 8 W, 3.76 ERA, 1.36WHIP, 186K, 7.69 K:9, 2.04 K:BB

Matt Cain started out 2008, terribly — awful, Painful.

He managed to salvage his season with some stellar 10, and 11 K performances. He still sprinkled in some stat lines of 5ER in 6IP, but all and all he ended the season very well.

Cain’s a power pitcher, and he’s built like a brick shit-house — so injuries aren’t a concern.

He pitches in the NL west and the Giants have a great stadium, and a half decent defense. Cain’s fastball tops out around 95, and he’ll throw 3 other pitches at you. All four of his pitches can be used as strike-out pitches.

Cain should keep his K:9 somewhere around 8, and pitch 200 IP easily.

Cain’s a pretty safe bet, with some upside which is hard to come by. Most of the pitchers with room for improvement and upside are risky as fuck. Cain’s going to give you some solid innings, and some great strikeout numbers.

#25 Erik Bedard – SP – SEA Mariners

Bill James Prediction: 5-5, 86K, 3.72ERA, 1.31WHIP, 8.7 K:9

2008: 6 W, 3.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 73K, 8 K:9, 1.95 K:BB

What a 2008 Bedard had. An injury plagued, sporadically dominant, sporadically awful season had the Seattle media out for Bedard’s throat.

Bedard was traded for by Seattle idiot-GM, Bill Bavasi, who gave up roughly seven arms and two legs to get him ( Adam Jones, George Sherrill, Chris Tillman, Tony Butler)

Bedard is one hell of a pitcher though: The question is whether or not he’ll actually want to pitch for Seattle. The media hates him, everyone in Seattle looks back at his acquisition as stooopid, and he’s injury plagued.

If Bedard wants to put up 220 innings and 200K’s, he will. Otherwise, he’s just going to sit out with every ache and pain and pitch less than 100 innings again.

The Mariners aren’t even sure what they want to do with Bedard going forward. There’s no way they can realistically get anything solid for him in a trade and unless he has a great year, he’s only going to garner Type-B compensation when he hits the Free Agent Market.

So, I think Bedard pitches crazy-awesome this year and leaves to further screw over the Mariners.

Go Canada.

#26 A.J. Burnett – SP – NY Yankees

Bill James Prediction: 14-11, 218K, 3.62ERA, 1.28WHIP, 8.76 K:9

2008: 18 W, 4.00 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 231K, 9.35 K:9, 2.69 K:BB

A.J. Burnett is a top 12 pitcher if he stays healthy, which he more than likely do now that he’s a Yankee.

I’m a Blue Jays fan, and like all Jays fans; I think A.J Burnett is a douche-bag. Of course everyone understands that you gotta make the cheddar but A.J. never seemed to want to be in Toronto.

A.J. Burnett does have some of the nastiest stuff in the majors, and his curveball is argueably the best in the league. He’s been plagued with injuries throughout his entire career in Florida and Toronto.

At some point, I’ll move AJ up to his rightful place among the top 20 pitchers but I just have trouble believing A.J. will stay healthy let alone duplicate his stellar numbers from last year.

Hopefully Mr. Burnett crumbles under the pressure of New York, or decides to once again stop trying because he’s made his money.

#27 Javier Vazquez – SP – ATL Braves

Bill James Prediction: 13-11, 195K, 3.80ERA, 1.24WHIP, 8.20 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.67 ERA, 1.32WHIP, 200K, 8.64 K:9, 3.28 K:BB

The Braves acquired Javier Vazquez late last year, when their talks with the Padres f or Jake Peavy fell through.

Vazquez is probably going to give you some of the best value in the 2009 draft. He’s got all the talent in the world, and has put up terrific ratios, but for some screwy reason always seems to put up 4.00+ ERA numbers.

With Vazquez’s return to the NL, you can assume that his already great 8.5ish K:9 is going to rise a wee lil’ bit. Vazquez striking out a batter an inning is not out of the realm of possibility.

Vazquez at 33 is starting to get up there in age, but over the last 4 years h is velocity hasn’t declined even a smidge. He’s still topping out on his fastball at around 94-95, slider 84mph, and curve about 74mph.

Last year Vazquez put up a stupid-silly .328 BABIP, and you’d have to assume that’d regress to career averages + the mean. Bill James properly predicts a BABIP of about .310.

Vazquez also does not get injured: The man keeps trucking along posting 200IP seasons.

All told, you should expect one hell of a season from Javier Vazquez and should draft him as high as 15th, if you’re risk-adverse.

#28 Edinson Volquez – SP – CIN Reds

Bill James Prediction: 11-11,191K, 4.08ERA, 1.41WHIP, 8.95 K:9

2008: 17 W, 3.24 ERA, 1.33WHIP, 206K, 9.45 K:9, 2.22 K:BB

Volquez has always had a solid repitoire of pitches, and a big boy fastball (94-95MPH). Last year came as a complete surprise however. Volquez had been regularly awful in Texas for the past 2 or 3 years.

He put up impressive 2008 pre-season numbers, and showed improved control — but pre-season numbers are generally deceitful.

Volquez pitches in the Great American Bandbox, and there’s no way in hell he’s going to put up similiar numbers. After the all-star break last year, Volquez put up a 4.60 ERA and gave up 9 HR which was a drastic increase from his first half stats.

He still managed to put up an incredibly respectable 3.24 ERA, but that’s going to balloon. His HR/FB ratio is definitely going to go up from 8, and his numbers will suffer.

#29 Carlos Zambrano – SP – CHI CUBS

Bill James Prediction: 13-9,163K, 3.56ERA, 1.29WHIP, 7.48 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.91 ERA, 1.29WHIP, 130K, 6.20 K:9, 1.81 K:BB

There’s no way Zambrano can live with himself after posting 6.20 strike outs per nine. In 2008, Zambrano became a bitch-ass soft-tosser rather than a burly 250lb power pitcher.

He decreased his BB / 9 down 3.43 after two years of 4.80 and 4.34BB per nine. While Zambrano’s increased control is reminiscent of his amazing 2004 & 2005 numbers, his strike out rate took a major hit.

Zambrano is pretty much useless if he’s not putting up at least 7.50K per 9, and I obviously expect a return to that. If Zambrano isn’t putting up at least a 2.00 K to BB ratio, he’s pretty much useless other than his contributions to Wins.

Wrigley is a half decent park to pitch in, until the winds start blowing out.

All and all, Zambrano is capable of putting up 200+ K’s and he’s got the frame to stay healthy. He’ll generally be around league average in WHIP, but he should be up solid win totals as Chicago is once again favoured to win the central.

#30 Jon Lester – SP – BOS Red Sox

Bill James Prediction: 12-11,168K, 4.02ERA, 1.40WHIP, 7.13 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.21 ERA, 1.27WHIP, 152K, 6.50 K:9, 2.30 K:BB

If Lester puts up similiar numbers to last year, there’s a couple pitchers that make more sense at this spot (Oswalt, Lilly, Garza).

However, Lester is a young guy who’s bound to improve. While Lester’s K per 9 decreased in 2008, he improved his control quite a bit, lowering his BB:9 from 4.43 to 2.82.

Pitching for Boston affords Lester a good chance at 20 Wins, and he’s Boston’s only reliable lefty. Last year, Lester was probably Boston’s best pitcher and while his dominance doesn’t transfer particularly well into the fantasy world; he’s primed for a break out year.

Lester’s a fairly safe bet, with decent potential. 200 strikeouts is probably a bit of a reach for Lester, but 18 Wins, 1.25WHIP, 3.25 ERA and 180K’s isn’t unreasonable. Lester will help you in all categories without hurting you in any one category.

Photo Of Liriano: Aturkus / Flickr

Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009

Which starting pitchers will excel in 2009? A quick little look at the numbers each SP should put up, combined with a gut feeling of what they’ll actually put up.

#1 Johan Santana – SP – NY Mets

Bill James Prediction: 18-7, 234K, 3.01ERA, 1.07WHIP, 9.16 K:9

2008: 16 W, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206K, 7.91 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

Great things were expected of Santana last year after a tremendous 2007 campaign and while he didn’t disappoint, his strikeout numbers drastically decreased. 2008 was the first year that Santana failed to strikeout at least one batter per inning since becoming a starting pitcher.

Santana’s other 2008 numbers remained similar to career averages, and the slight increase in BB:9 isn’t concerning.

At this point, Santana is the safest bet. While another pitcher or two may finish ahead of Santana in the final standings — they’ll also come with larger risks.

CitiBank will almost certainly favour pitchers in the same manner that Shea did as the dimensions are almost exactly the same.

If Lincecum wasn’t 160lbs soaking wet, and Sabathia didn’t have the potential to eat the big apple; they’d both be able to give Santana a run for his money. As always, pitchers are a fickle bunch and even the dominant ones manage to get themselves hurt ruining your fantasy season.

#2 Tim Lincecum – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 17-9, 272K, 3.02ERA, 1.19WHIP, 10.2 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 265K, 10.5 K:9, 3.26 K:BB

Lincecum has potential to put up big boy stats, and quite possibly lead the league in just about every meaningful pitching category. I’d almost certainly put him as the top pitcher if not for his petite frame. At 5’11, 170lbs, the body just isn’t made to throw 95mph. His delivery is also a concern, and the possibility of injury is just to great to put Lincecum at number 1.

Everything else is great for Lincecum. He pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, and he’s got great ratios.

While his WINS may not stack up against the kids in New York, he’ll manage more than a couple. Wins are the most random stat of the bunch anyways, so banking on them is generally a silly idea.

James’ predictions are almost always insanely conservative, so to see Lincecum improving on last years strike out numbers is a great sign. If you think Lincecum pitches all year without injury — there’s no harm in drafting him above Santana.

#3 C.C. Sabathia – SP – NY Yankees

BJP: 16-10, 205K, 3.48ERA, 1.23WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 17 W, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251K, 8.93 K:9, 4.25 K:BB

Personally, I wouldn’t touch Sabathia with a ten foot pole. You’re going to have to pay too much for him in an auction draft, or draft him too early in a snake. Unless he falls into your lap, he’s probably going to be a reach due to the New York hype machine.

Sabathia also seems to have a bit of Manny Ramirez in him and now that he’s got the big fat contract, he may just let himself go.

Everyone will remember his 2008 finish, but the start of his 2008 season was concerning.

With all that said, C.C. Sabathia will fill the stat sheet for you. He’ll obviously put up solid win totals playing for the rebuilt Yankees.

C.C. Sabathia should top 200 Ks easily, and his ratios will remain as some of the best in the majors.

#4a Jake Peavy – SP – SD? Padres?

BJP: 14-8, 202K, 3.26ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.0 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166K, 8.60 K:9, 2.81 K:BB

Peavy’s 2008 numbers weren’t as flashy as normal which has more to do with his IP totals than the slight decline in K:9.

Peavy probably has the best value in the top 10 SP, as many experts have him rated lower.

Peavy pitches in a pitcher’s park, and generally keeps his WHIP in the 1.05-1.10 range. His 2008 strained right elbow more than likely raised his WHIP while his GS fell.

Predicting a “bounce back” year for Peavy is easy to do. The potential for 210Ks with a sub-1.10 WHIP, and sub-3.00 ERA is hard to resist.

The difference between Peavy and the next group of pitchers simply comes down to ratios. Peavy’s ERA the past five years is 2.27, 2.88, 4.09, 2.54, 2.85 along with a 1.20, 1.04, 1.23, 1.06, 1.18 WHIP.

#4b Cole Hamels – SP – PHI Phillies

BJP: 16-8, 214K, 3.24ERA, 1.12WHIP, 8.64 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196K, 7.76 K:9, 3.70 K:BB

The difference between Hamels and Peavy is negligible and you can’t go wrong with either one. Personally, I think you’re going to have to pay more for Hamels for the same amount of production. Both have similiar ceilings, but Hamels has an offense behind him — which should lead to increased wins. Philadelphia also has a rock-solid bullpen that’s capable of holding onto leads, even with the loss of J.C. Romero.

If you can get Hamels cheaper than Peavy, by all means take him for the guaranteed wins.

Hamels has been injury free since he came to the Majors, but I believe he had a small series of minor league injuries. The potential is always there when you’re not built like a brick shithouse.

Hamels is the last of the guaranteed 200K, 1.20WHIP guys without injury worries. If you’re going to draft a starting pitcher early, I’d recommend getting in before this cut off point.

#6 Brandon Webb – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 15-9, 176K, 3.37ERA, 1.24WHIP, 7.14 K:9

2008: 22 W, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183K, 7.27 K:9, 2.82 K:BB

Webb has been solid for a while now, and seems to go through an un-hittable phase each and every year. He’s got ridiculous sinking action on his fast ball which he throws about 3/4 of the time, at around 88-90mph.

He’s not a pure strike out pitcher, but he’ll creep up on 200k if he can notch 220-230 IP. This is a bit concerning however as he’s entering the “DEAR GOD- HIS ARM JUST FELL OFF” stage after 5 seasons of 200IP in a row. There’s the potential there for injury, but its limited.

Everything points to Brandon Webb keeping his WHIP in the 1.20 range. However, Webb went through a couple stints last year where he’d give up 5-7 runs per contest, which is worrisome.

There’s very little risk in drafting a player like Webb, and while he may not put up crazy K numbers he’ll hold his own as the ace of any staff.

#7 Dan Haren – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 14-10, 174K, 3.59ERA, 1.20WHIP, 7.46 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206K, 8.53 K:9, 5.15 K:BB

When the Oakland Athletics get rid of a pitcher, he almost always becomes terrible. Dan Haren actually improved, however.

Haren was a machine in 2008, and with a BABIP of .315 after 4 years of .305 and below — he may actually improve.

Pitchers generally get a bump when they switch leagues as the hitters haven’t timed their delivery, nor have they seen their arsenal. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Haren come back down to earth a little bit although he had pitched a year and a half in Cardinal red and white.

With a 2008 K:9 of 8.58, a WHIP of 1.13, and a remarkable K:BB ratio of 5.15 — Haren is looking solid.

As mentioned earlier, Bill James is generally quite conservative and will rely on a three year average rather than a stunning previous year, if the data is available. I tend to agree with this approach, unless you believe a player has turned the corner. Obviously, you can’t tell simply based on stats whether or not a player has turned the corner.

So it’s up to you. Haren could easily put up numbers better than Webb and on par with Peavy and Hamels. There’s a bit of risk here, but not enough to keep you up at night.

#8 Roy Halladay – SP – TOR Blue Jays

BJP: 17-10, 172K, 3.18ERA, 1.13WHIP, 6.42 K:9

2008: 20 W, 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 206K, 7.53 K:9, 5.23 K:BB

Roy Halladay’s totals rely on how many games he starts. Halladay is a great pitcher, and a must have in any league that considers Complete Games or Quality Starts a category.

Roy’s K:9 took a huge leap last year, after many years of a consistent 5.5 to 6.5 ratio. To predict a repeat of his 2008 7.54 K per 9 is somewhat foolish.

When you draft Halladay, you’ll get your wins, era, and whip — guaranteed.

Unfortunately, his strike out numbers are going to depend heavily on innings pitched. He’s made a habit of throwing 230+ inninngs, and when he does that, he’ll put up solid K numbers.

While I have no data to suggest that Halladay ends up with a major shoulder injury this year, it seems quite possible given his workload and the Blue Jays dependance on him.

#9 Josh Beckett – SP – BOS Red Sox

BJP: 13-8, 176K, 3.57ERA, 1.22WHIP, 8.38 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172K, 8.88 K:9, 5.06 K:BB

Josh has the dirty dirty and can hang with anyone. Over the past two years, he’s drastically cut back on his walks per nine (from 3+ to under 2.00), which fantasy owners love.

Unfortunately, Beckett has blister issues. He’s always has blister issues, and they’re certainly caused by his uncle charlie. His Curve is probably his best strike out pitch and he needs it to be an elite pitcher.

To add to this, he’s now becoming a dirty old man who bitches about his back all the time. So, he’s got some serious injury issues and if you’re banking on 200IP you may be in for a ride.

When Josh Beckett does pitch however, it’s beautiful. He strikes out a batter an inning, he’ll put up a sub-1.20 WHIP, his K:BB is 5 and he plays for the Red Sox.

#10 Rich Harden – SP – CHI Cubs

BJP: 11-5, 151K, 3.02ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.44 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 181K, 11.01 K:9, 2.97 K:BB

Yah, this is stupid.

Rich Harden is going to get hurt.

This pick / rating depends on how deep your league is. In a deep league, Harden gets moved down. But in a shallow league, where when Harden makes his eventual DL trip you’ll be able to spot start guys with favorable match-ups and keep your ERA under four: Harden goes here.

Harden’s numbers last year were ridiculous: 11! K! per! 9! , 1.06 WHIP

Basically, sit down and realistically figure out how many innings you think Harden will pitch. If you think he pitches more than 150 innings, its worthwhile to draft him. Even at 150 innings, he’ll strike out 160-170 and when you add that with 50 innings of spot starting nice matchups — you’re going to end up with a 200K guy, with a 1.20 WHIP, a 3.20 ERA.

Harden does have a huge history of injuries, and he’ll probably go down. How you value him really depends on what kind of waiver wire you think you’ll have. If the top 80-90 SP are gone, you’re probably going to want to wait on Harden.

Harden’s the biggest boom / bust of the entire draft.

Generally, I like to see at least a 7.5 to 8 strikeouts per nine, to throw this tag on. However, if a pitcher has a realistic shot of accumulating enough innings to reach 200 Ks with a lower ratio he should still be viewed as a source of K’s

ESPN uses an incredibly simple formula to determine which ball parks favor hitters, and which favor pitchers. Its called park factors, and since your pitchers play half of their games at home — it’s pretty important.

Greg Maddux-type accuracy is great to have on your roster. Dice-K type accuracy, is not. Dice-K can hit all of the spots, and ends up walking quite a few batters because he’s going for the perfect pitch each and every time. This is as much about WHIP as it is about accuracy.

Simple: he’s either coming off an injury, has a history of injuries, or he’s someone who’s 5’10, 170lbs, and throws 100mph. Tiny frames aren’t meant to throw that hard.

If you play with fire, you get burnt. These are just risky players, and a few of them on a roster is brilliant, but stacking your roster with boom/bust guys will end you up losing more often than winning.

Tim Lincecum Photography From Dave Nelson, Flickr