Geovany Soto followed up his  1.100 OPS cup-of-coffee (60 PA) in 2007 with a Rookie Of The Year performance in 2008.  Big things were expected from Soto entering the 2009 season; fantasy experts generally had him in their top-60 overall and the third or fourth best catcher available.

North Side Chicago Gang Sign For Expressing One's Home Run Total

The 2009 season hasn’t been nearly as kind to Soto: Injuries and ineffectiveness have left him ranked as the 922nd best player in a standard Yahoo Fantasy Baseball League. After a recent hot-streak in which Soto went 21-for-73 in the month of May, Soto raised his Batting Average and On-Base-Percentage to .218 and .333, respectively.

Unfortunately, Soto still only slugged .370 in May; barely raising his season SLG to .277. Soto’s lack of power is inexplicable and he hasn’t hit a home-run since May 13th — his first and only.

Soto’s entire year has been inexplicable and his advanced statistics fail to shed any light on the situation.  Starting with batted-ball statistics, it’s pretty clear that Soto’s been unlucky but not to the point where you’d expect such disappointing roto-stats.

Batted Ball

BABIP: Soto had a .337 BABIP in 2008, and was expected to post somewhere in the region of .320 this year.  Unfortunately, Soto’s currently batting .278 on balls-in-play which is roughly 50pts below expectations.  While it’s obvious that Soto got a little lucky in 2008, a .278 BABIP is by no means a poor number and fails to fully explain Soto’s slump.

HR/FB: After posting a fairly average 14.7% HR/FB in 2008, Soto’s 2.9% HR/FB in 2009 isn’t exactly what was expected.  Wrigley Field in the Spring generally suppresses HR numbers as the wind blows in off Lake Michigan, but bad luck also players a factor.  Wrigley’s currently the 12th best hitting park, but the 12th worst HR park in the bigs, FYI. Courtesy of ESPN Park Factors.

Whether or not these two factors account for such a discrepency isn’t clear cut, but should give you a little confidence in Soto going forward as the rest of his indicator statistics are in line with last year.

Line Drive: Soto’s line-drive percentage is actually 0.7% higher than his 2008 number of 21.0%.

GB/FB: Soto’s hitting a few more ground balls, but his 1.06 GB/FB is well within career norms.

Pitches Seen:

Classification: Soto’s seeing a similiar pitch selection with the only difference being about 3% more cut-fastballs.  Much like 2008, Soto’s amongst the lead-leaders in off-speed pitches seen.  In 2009, of qualifying players with 140 PA only Soriano, Howard, Francoeur, Duncan, Blalock, Blum, Hart, I-Rod, and the Cuban Missile, see fewer fastballs than Geovany Soto.

Ball/Strikes: There is a small difference in the number of strikes that Soto is seeing.  After throwing Soto a league-average 51% of pitches in the zone in 2008, opposing pitchers have resorted to throwing Soto 47.1% of pitches in the zone in 2009.

Plate Discipline: Soto’s adapted to opposing pitchers quite well, actually better than I ever would have expected. Pitchers are throwing less strikes, but Soto’s swinging at less Balls — He’s seen his O-Swing drop from 20.1% to 18.6%.   Soto’s making almost identical contact as last year, both inside and outside of the zone and has actually seen his contact percentage jump a couple points to 76%.

BB%, K%, BB/K : Soto’s actually walking almost 3% more than last year, striking out a full percent less, and posting a 0.68 BB/K in 2009 after posting a 0.51 BB/K in 2008.

Conclusion:

Almost everything’s the same as last year except the statistics that matter in fantasy baseball.  The BABIP and HR/FB don’t account for the entire drop-off, but they do factor into it.  Quite frankly, there’s no empirical data that explains Soto’s slump and this could well just be a nagging injury that’s robbed Geovany of his power.

Whenever there’s no damn good reason for a player to suck, you’ve gotta assume they’ll bust out of the slump or end up on the DL for the entire year.  The fact that Soto’s plate discipline and walk rate haven’t suffered during his slump is indicative of a break-out looming.

Buy low, if you can -- It’ll be another week or two before he gets his SLG and AVG up to respectable levels, but a multi-HR series will definitely raise his price in a hurry.  This definitely isn’t your typical sophomore slump, but rather a combination of bad luck and nagging injuries — I think?

Please, save yourself the trouble and don’t put too much time into your dynasty league catcher.  You’ll definitely fall into one of two groups: the haves, and the have-nots.  If you’re lucky enough to get Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, or Russell Martin, you’re set for the foreseeable future.

If you don’t get one of the big guys, don’t even bother with the catcher position and pick up the highest rated catcher in single-year leagues.  Bengie Molina isn’t a pretty option, but he’ll get the job done. It makes a lot more sense to draft Ramon Hernandez every year, than it does to keep someone like Kurt Suzuki, just in case he breaks out.

Matt Wieters, the number one prospect in baseball, is obviously in the player pool but none of the other young-impact catchers make the list.  There’s no Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, or Jesus Montero.  Your best bet for grabbing a youngin’ probably comes from the catching stable in Texas, both Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden are solid prospects.

The first group of catchers are all about 26 years old, excluding Wieters, so you really can’t go wrong.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Brian McCann – ATL Braves – The only one of the bunch without a noticeable flaw.

2. Joe Mauer – MIN Twins - Flaw: Bad Back

3. Geovany Soto – CHI Cubs - Flaw: Only One Year Under His Belt

4. Russell Martin – LA Dodgers - Flaw: Speed will abandon him

You could make an argument for those 4 going in any order you’d like. I think McCann’s power will persevere unlike Martin’s stolen base numbers.  Joe Mauer at second is risky business considering his back is in awful shape, but while Mauer’s GP won’t be consistent, his batting average should be. Depending on how the young Twins shape up, Mauer should improve with age.

5. Matt Wieters – BAL Orioles - Wieters doesn’t even have a job yet, but when you consider very few catchers will get kept you might as well take a risk.  Weiter is also a great draft + trade candidate, as his value will only go up once he reaches the big leagues.

6. Chris Iannetta – COL Rockies – Finally, a Colorado catcher that can hit. Ianetta’s young enough to improve for the next 3 or 4 years, and maintain steady output into his 30′s.

7. Dioner Navarro – TB Rays – Bit of a risky pick here as Navarro is anything but predictable.  The only thing keeping him ahead of Doumit and Martinez is position eligibility.

8. Victor Martinez – CLE Indians – At some point, he’ll be an everyday first basemen or dh.

9. Ryan Doumit – PIT Pirates - Doumit’s already played his fair share of games in the outfield, and I wouldn’t bank on him having catcher eligibility for more than a couple years.

10. Mike Napoli – LA Angels - Limited at-bats, Lots of power.

11. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – TEX Rangers - Don’t write him off yet.

12. Jeff Clement – SEA Mariners - Ditto.

13. Max Ramirez – TEX Rangers - If you do write off Salty..

14. Taylor Teagarden – TEX Rangers – Minors numbers aren’t as pretty as you’d expect.  Solid defender and he plays in Arlington, though.

15. Kelly Shoppach – CLE Indians – Ditto Napoli.

16. Chris Snyder – ARI Diamondbacks

17. Angel Salome – MIL Brewers

18. Bengie Molina – SF Giants

19. Ramon Hernandez – CIN Reds

20. J.R. Towles – HOU Astros

21. Jesus Flores – WAS Nationals

22. A.J. Pierzynski – CHI White Sox

23. John Baker – FLA Marlins

24. Jorge Posada – NY Yankees

25. Ronny Paulino – FLA Marlins

26. Miguel Olivo – KC Royals

27. Nick Hundley – SD Padres

28. Kurt Suzuki – OAK Athletics

29. Jeff Mathis – LA Angels

30. Miguel Montero – ARI Diamondbacks

While I’ve listed these down to 30, I really don’t see any point in wasting a keeper spot on a mediocre catcher just because he’s under 25.  Obviously, when a Matt Wieters or Buster Posey comes along, you should pounce but the amount of FAIL that keeper-league catchers bring to the table is ungodly.

Furthermore, most of these catchers aren’t going to come into their own until their mid-twenties.

Top Prospects at Catchers

Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles

Matt Wieters . Gallery 2 Sports

Matt Wieters is far and away the best of the bunch, and should contribute early and often.  He’s worth a roster-spot in any format, and should bring plenty of everything to your fantasy squad. There’s been plenty of peeps comparing Matt Wieters to Joe Mauer + power.

What this means for people who are bad with addition and maths in general  is: Matt Wieters has a very sweet swing, a swing that you show in hitting clinics and can punish the ball. He’s got a superior eye, a major league ready eye, and the patience to go with it.

Of course, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Wieters prioritize one of his skills over the others, depending on coaching. Wieters could take the Joe Mauer route, and rely solely on his eye/patience and become a .320 hitter each and every year. In College, A+ and AA ball, Matt Wieters didn’t hit lower than .345.

Wieters could also sacrafice a few points in average, to become one of the best power-hitting catchers — ever.  It wouldn’t surprise me for Wieters to hit 25 Home Runs every year that he stays healthy.  At 6’4, 225lbs, the potential for a switch to first base after a few years is a definite possibility. I guess it all relies on whether or not his back holds up.

The Catcher position is a mess this year, and you really have to decide what you need from your Catcher this year.  There are more than a couple options there; You can grab 20 Steals, 20 HR, a Great Average, and Solid RBI and Runs, just not in the same player.

I hate ranking catchers, as I generally screw it up — not because I mis-predict their output, I’m just incapable of putting the guy with 70RBI, over the guy with 55 RBI.

Anyways, go ahead and read the write-ups to find out where I stand.

1. Joe Mauer

Joe Mauer or Russell Martin, the choice is yours.  Mauer comes with about the risk you’d expect from a starting catcher, with regards to injury. Martin probably has a slightly better than average chance of staying healthy.

Mauer’s probably going to give you what you expect, and it’s best to start with his batting average.  A lot of the time, if you draft a bad starting catcher it’s actually more harmful to your roster than helpful. While they’ll pile up 40 or 50 RBI and R, they’ll kill your average in the process.

With Mauer healthy, you can at least guarantee a .300+ average and high-eighties Runs and RBI.  Homers, as always, will be around 10.  Personally, I think this is a bit more valuable than Martin’s SB.

2. Russell Martin

Martin is clearly 1b than 2.  The only thing that separates Martin from Mauer is about 40 pts batting average, and his position in the line-up.

Martin could easily put up as many R and RBI this year, as Mauer did last.  If he does so, he leap frogs Mauer with ease.  Even if Martin can get to 90R and 80RBI, his 5 more HR and 15 more SB, is more than worth the decrease in BA. Just a couple years ago, Martin put up 87 of each Runs and RBI — so its definitely possible in that Dodgers offense.

I dont think you can count on the SB, however. Twenty or so seems likely a reachable number, but all it takes is a minor injury for Martin to stop running.

3. Brian McCann

McCann is solid across the board. It wouldn’t be surprising to see McCann put 100RBI this year, to go with 70 R, 20 HR, and a .300 average.

McCann may slip below Soto due to the ROY-hype, but McCann has a very solid claim for the  number 1 spot.

McCann will probably bring the best value out of the top 4 or 5 catchers, draft him.

4. Geovany Soto

Soto was on everyone’s sleeper lists last year, and even on the cover of the Bill James Handbook, or Baseball Prospectus, or one of those diddies.

He clearly didn’t disappoint, and he should continue to mature and put up solid numbers.  I’d imagine a slight increase across the board, as expected with an increase in AB.

24 Homers, 70 R, 85 RBI, .280 Average, and a steal — yes, after years of never putting up a steal in the Minors, I’m figuring Soto is going to steal second base, sometime in mid-june.

5. Ryan Doumit

Nice Power, and now a full-time gig. He’s just gotta stay healthy. Doumit used to be one of the guys that split AB, but was still more useful than most of the catchers because he carried a nice BA.

This year, he’ll continue his tear and possibly jump a spot or two in these rankings — he’s that good.  Doumit will eventually move out of the Catcher position, but as long as he has eligibility, he’s a great pick.

6. Chris Iannetta

Why not? Iannetta has been a solid prospect for  some time now, and it’s about bloody time he steps up to the plate.  Last year’s numbers were pretty nice, and rosterable — but he was splitting AB with Yorvit Torrealba.

This year, I’d imagine he’d get to at least 450 AB, which should bring with it some solid numbers.  The OPS of .895 shows a lot of ‘dat ‘dere potential.

22 HR, 75R, 75RBI, .260AVG, and maybe a stolen base or two.

7. Mike Napoli

Did Napoli really hit 20 HR in 227 AB? Any Catcher that has a .960 OPS is a damn good bet for a break-out season.

Jeff Mathis was supposed to be super-prospect, and then the powder keg that is Mike Napoli just started tearing stuff up.

Napoli will continue to split time with Mathis, I’d imagine. But he should have at least 350AB this year, or possibly more.  Adjust accordingly.

8. Victor Martinez

Holy Crap, I bet Martinez owners are cheesed at him.  I guess we can chalk last year up to Injuries, as great hitters don’t become awful hitters, overnight.

There are reasons why people use 3-year averages to determine a players value, good reasons.

Even if Martinez goes out and puts up 20 HR, 80 RBI, 70 R, and hits .280 — He’s going to be incredibly useful.  There is a hell of a lot of potential for another 30HR, 100RBI season though.

It just comes down to injuries, not just his but, the other Indians as well.  Shoppach is going to get AB, at which point Martinez is going to be moved to first or DH, which are currently occupied by Garko and Hafner, respectively.

9. Bengie Molina

Quantity over Quality.

I dislike Molina quite a bit, and he wont come close to 95RBI again.  Well, I guess he could if he continues to bat clean-up.

Ugh, stupid Molinas. Yes, he’ll perform. To what extend, depends on where he ends up batting.

10. Kelly Shoppach

Shoppach filled in amazingly for an injured Victor Martinez last year.  The Cleveland Indians really need to find at-bats for Shoppach this coming year.

Shoppach will hit home runs, but he’ll also strike-out a whole hell of a lot.

Go ahead and move Shoppach down if you look at the Indians depth chart and can’t find At-Bats for him.

11. Chris Synder

I like Snyder, he’s a solid player.  If he gets 450-500 AB, he’ll produce like a top 10 Catcher. However, Miguel Montero is also a great young catching prospect who’ll end up stealing at-bats from Snyder.

Even at 450 AB, Snyder should be able to get to around 20HR, and 60 R, with 70 RBI and a .250+ average

12. Pablo Sandoval

Everyone’s favorite sleeper, Pablo Sandoval.  He’d be a bit higher, if he’d played more than 11 Games.

Make sure to check your league settings for position eligibility, as 11 games oftentimes just wont get it done.  With Sandoval pretty much entrenched at third, it’ll take a while for him to regain catcher eligibility — if he regains it at all.

13. Dioner Navarro

Navarro is solid, and still has some growing to do.  I choose life: 60 RBI, 60 R, 13HR, and a 300 average.

14. Matt Wieters

Stupid Greg Zaun, like seriously. I hated Greg Zaun in Toronto, and if he starts stealing Wieters’ AB in Baltimore, the fantasy community will lynch him

Draft Wieters and everyone will think you’re smart.  Draft Wieters without a back-up plan, and you’ll regret it.

With that said, Wieters is about as Major League ready as you can get.

15. Jeff Clement

Clement proved all he had to prove in the Minors, and the only thing holding him back was ownerships love of AZNs.

Who’s ownership you ask? Well, it’s Nintendo.  Maybe that’s why Johjima is starting all the time, and cashing that 7 million dollar per year contract.

Clement should do well this year, assuming he  gets starter AB. Lets just hope that Clement can get himself at least 400AB this year, and if he does — he’ll produce.

16. Ramon Hernandez

Everyone’s favorite Latin Lover. I’m not sure how the Reds are going to play out in 2009, but Hernandez is pretty much set as the Reds’ starting catcher.

Hernandez might be a great pick-up a few months into the season or a late round pick, that you can take the wait-and-see approach.

18 Homers, is a solid, realistic expectation, which is nice.

17. A.J. Pierzynski

Noted Douche-Bag, A.J. Pierzynski.  He’ll produce, but there’s absolutely nothing sexy about it.  Expect quite possibly the exact same numbers, right down to at-bats and plate-appearances.

18. Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Texas has a herd of quality young catching prospects, and it looks like Saltalamacchia has a head-start on the starting gig.

Taylor Teagarden looks like he’ll be the number two, and he has all the talent to leap-frog Salty, if given a shot. I’m very interesteted to watch how this plays out, as Salty is getting down to his last shot before he loses his “sure-fire” prospect label.

Some experts have already tossed him onto the scrap heap, but I still tend to think he’s going to be an above average Major League catcher.

Max Ramirez, the third in Texas’ list of  “cant-miss” catching prospects will more than likely end up playing the majority of the year in the Minors, but he’s worth a massive, major, maximum look in Keeper Leagues.

19. Someone’s going to get moved here, just not sure who.

20. Jorge Posada

I refer to both Posada and Cantu, as George.  It’s funnier that way, eventhough saying Whore-Hey is great.

IR-regardless, If Posada plays he’ll put up solid R and RBI numbers with a 270 average.  All the good stuff is gone, but playing in that Yankees line-up makes everyone relevant.

Even Jose Molina, maybe.

21. Miguel Olivo

Olivo is solid, and if he can put up 15 HR with 10 SB he’ll be relevant in the fantasy community. I really like the looks of this super-young Royals team, and they’ll go on some runs where they beat the big boys.

Of course, playing in the Central they’re going to get smashed on most days, but so-it-goes.

John Buck was just resigned, so Olivo wont get full-time at-bats but he’ll definitely up it from the 306 of last year.

22. J.R Towles

Post-Hype Sleeper. Towles was bad, really bad, last year. However, you don’t hit .300 at every minor league level, only to become a .140 hitter in the big leagues.

Towles will get better, much better.  12-15 Homers will go with a starting gig, and the kid can steal more than a couple bases.  While 10 SB may be out of reach, he’ll definitely add a hand full.

Even at an atrocious LD% of 11, his BABIP of .157 just screams bad luck.  If you decide to wait on a catcher, Towles might be a beautiful sleeper.

23. John Baker

John Baker, my favourite catcher, in 2009. Generally when you float around in triple-a for three years, you’re not going to have a bust-out year.

Anyways, his OPS of .840 may only be in 200 AB, but he should produce. Whenever you see an average of .299 that gets bumped up 100 points when you calculate OBP, you’re onto something.

Sleeper? Yes, Please.  He’s got the gig in Florida.

24. Brandon Inge

Looks like he’ll be playing every day at third base, while Carlos Guillen moves to left field.  I’m not sure why it’s not the other way, but Inge played 60 Games at Catcher last year and might be someone to keep an eye on.

25. Jesus Flores

Proved to be useful for at least a few stints last year.  He’s got the Gig, and his BA wont kill you dead.  He’s still young enough to improve (24), so definitely keep an eye out.

26. Kurt Suzuki

Lots of AB, not much production.  Decent enough average to keep your catcher position from killing you.  There are a lot of boom/bust type guys that i’d choose over Suzuki.

If you want someone consistant, just go ahead and slot Suzuki at about 15th overall.

The Best of The Rest

27. Gerald Laird – I’m moving him up once spring training rolls around. He has the power to knock out 15-20, it just depends on playing time — which it looks like he has as of January, 2009.

28. Jason Varitek – The Captain.

29. Jason Kendall – Really, not all that useful. At all.

30. Rod Barajas – End with a Blue Jay.

[ Mauer Photo by keith allison / flickr ]