Busts

Tony Sanchez: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP76, Tony Sanchez of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Sell

Projected Value: Medium

Sanchez is an interesting prospect, but there are a couple of things working against the value of his cards in the long-term.

First off, Sanchez looks to be staying put in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future.  New Pirates General Manager, Neal Huntington, seems to be on the right track to building a mid-market franchise with budget constraints.  Huntington probably won’t be around to see the majority of his maneuvers come to fruition, but the groundwork has been laid.

The move to draft Sanchez with the fourth overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft was a bit questionable, but you have to admire a GM that puts his faith into the hands of the Scouting Director and takes a leap of faith.

Unfortunately, Sanchez’s early draft slot and high signing bonus will lead to an early overvaluation of his cards.

Sanchez has all of the tools to be an above average catcher in the big leagues, but his name shouldn’t be amongst the highlights of any checklist.  He had a terrific seasons in Low-A, where he showcased his potential.

Sanchez could make a claim for a promotion to Double-A early in the season.  He’s not afraid to take a walk, a skill that’s translated well from BC, and the power’s starting to come around.

You’re going to have issues making money of Sanchez, though.  People like to overpay for early first rounders and even if Sanchez hits the show before 2012, his cards will have a hard time standing up to fourth-overall selection prices.

Busts

Rick Porcello & Trevor Cahill: Past, Present, Future.

Heading into 2009, Baseball America did everyone a favour and ranked the top-100 prospects. After dominating Olympic competition, Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and his heavy fastball jumped into the top-20 as the 11th overall prospect, just behind super-prospect Neftali Feliz. Twenty-year old Rick Porcello wasn’t all that far behind as Baseball America ranked him the 21st overall for the second year in a row.

It’s Porcello, one year removed from his 7-million dollar prep-bonus, that’s adapted to the level of competition quicker — or so it appears. Porcello’s currently 6-and-2 with a sparking 3.48 ERA which is head and shoulders above Cahill’s 4.48 ERA and 2-and-5 record. Their Fielding Independent Pitching ERAs aren’t nearly as pretty, but Porcello once against bests Cahill with a 4.67 to 5.61 advantage. Neither Porcello nor Cahill has been as dominant as expected; both posted painfully low strike-out numbers, especially given their pure stuff.  Porcello posted surprisingly low strike-out totals in his first professional season, failing to tally 6-K per 9 in High-A.  Porcello’s continued to post mediocre strike-out totals in the show, notching only 5.57 K per 9, thus far.  Porcello’s succeeded on the strength of a ridiculous 54% ground-ball rate and by limiting free passes.

Read more

Busts

Snake-Bitten Chris Young

If you haven’t guessed by the terrible Diamondback reference, we’re taking a look at the Arizona Diamondback’s Chris Young.

Statistics are wonderful tool, but watching Chris Young take at-bats should be more than enough to clue you into what’s wrong:  Chris Young’s swing has abandon him.  Young’s always had a decent swing, and has always managed to remain balanced through the zone which is important for a hard-swinger like Young.  Unfortunately in 2009, there seems to be more than a couple kinks in it.  His hips aren’t as smooth and his weight isn’t nearly as balanced coming through the zone.

This has expressed itself in a 32 % rate of striking out, which Young has steadily increased after entering the league. In Young’s first season of 2007, he struck out 24.8 % of the time, compared to a 7% BB-Rate.  In 2008, Young increased his BB-Rate to 9% but also increased his K-Rate to 26.4%.  In addition to striking out more, Young’s also walking a pitiful 6% of the time.  Young can function at a .30-.38 BB:K rate given his skill-set, but will have trouble maintain value at his current 0.19 BB:K ratio.  All of this has resulted in an awful .233 OBP and .177 batting average.

Young’s contact numbers and plate discipline are equally concerning. Young’s always swung at a slightly below league average rate across the board.  There’s a marginal increase in the amount of pitches both inside and outside of the zone, but that is by no means an indicator of trouble.  Where the trouble lies is in Young’s contact rate:  Young’s increased the amount of contact he’s made on balls outside of the zone, but has dipped to 76.7% contact on balls inside the strike zone.  This is down almost a full 10% from Chris Young’s previous two years with the Diamondbacks. So while Young’s overall Contact Percentage remains close to his career average of 77%, he’s making a large portion of his contact on balls outside of the zone.

Breaking this down, it appears as though Young’s much more of a guess-hitter than a read and react hitter.  What I mean by this is that Young’s picking a pitch, and picking a zone, and swinging away if he sees his pitch. A couple things spring to mind when evaluating Young’s decreased Zone Contact Rate: 1) ESPN’s Brendan Roberts mentioned that Chris Young had put on weight, and there could be an adjustment period. 2) Chris Young is injured.

Both of these theories are supported by Chris Young failing to hit the ball square.  Young’s line-drive percentage has remained consistent, but the amount of pop-ups that he’s hitting is ridiculous. Of the 36 Fly Balls (55% FB,) an astonishing 15 of them have went for infield fly-balls (41.7 IFFB%.)

Chris Young is not only failing to hit the ball squarely, he’s not even coming close. Young’s BABIP may be quite low at .238, especially considering his line-drive percentage of 18.5% but even after this regresses, he’d be lucky to hit .240 the way he’s missing.

In the end, Chris Young falls into the Mike Cameron school of hacking.  Even if everything goes perfectly, Young’s only going to hit .250 with 25 HR and 20 SB.  It’s unfortunate that Young lacks plate-patience, and you’re pretty much stuck with a .310 OBP.

The good news is, if Young’s failing due to added weight, he should eventually figure his swing out and you could possibly expect better than projected power.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Young better his 2006 numbers if he gets everything sorted out quickly.  The bad news is, Young’s still having some issues with league-average breaking balls, and the best case scenario is a batting average of .250.

Young’s power speed combination gives him another two weeks worth of lee-way.  Obviously if you’re in a league with a great waiver-wire, go ahead and use it.

Busts

Lastings Milledge Gets Put in His Place: Triple-A?

Everything looked good for Lastings Milledge heading into the 2009 season.  Manny Acta had slotted him as the lead-off hitter, he was coming off a year in which he hit .268 while homering 14 times and stealing 24 bases.

Milledge was primed to be a terrific fantasy option for your outfield. Alas, the AP reports that Lastings Milledge has been optioned to Triple-A Syracuse:

WASHINGTON (AP) — Lastings Milledge lasted all of one week as the Washington Nationals’ leadoff hitter.

Off to an 0-7 start this season after finishing with a majors-high 102 losses in 2008, the Nationals optioned their starting center fielder to Triple-A Syracuse on Tuesday. Milledge was hitting .167 with no extra-base hits, one RBI, one walk and 10 strikeouts atop the batting order.

“He is still a work-in-progress as a leadoff man,” assistant general manager Mike Rizzo said during a conference call.

“This is certainly a message that we need for players to perform,” Rizzo said. “We need for players to adapt to the major leagues, and we need players to succeed.”

In 24 Plate Appearances, Milledge had accumulated 4 singles and 1 walk to go along with his 10 strike-outs.

Milledge’s line of .167/.231/.167 isn’t something you write home about.  Milledge’s effort has been called into question since his days as a top-prospect with the Mets.  Many have referred to Milledge as an all-tools player, alas in fantasy baseball — tools are all we want:  Power and Speed, please.

How long the Nationals can keep Milledge in the minors is debatable.  Manny Acta, who loves Milledge, was enamored with Austin Kearns to start the year. Watching Acta trot out Kearns ahead of Dukes, was almost painful to watch.

I tend to believe this is a wake-up call for Milledge, and nothing more.  Getting Milledge riding buses rather than chartered planes should certainly wake him up.  Unless Milledge flops in triple-A, of course, in which case who knows what’ll happen.  Milledge looks off, real off, as he’s striking out at a 40 percent clip.

This move could backfire in the faces of the Nats management if Milledge starts pressing. If he decides he needs to make an immediate impression, he’ll continue his hard-swinging ways and continue to strike out. Which could result in more fail than Elijah Dukes’ book on parenting.

Instead of sending Milledge to the minors as a wake up call, the Nationals should have sat his butt on the bench. Whether or not Milledge gets the message, is really up in the air — I see him continuing to press.

However, one thing is for sure — If Milledge gets another chance in the next month, he’s bound to impress.  With a talented youngster like Milledge, fantasy-stud-dom is just a wake-up call away.

I do, however, still question Milledge as a lead-off hitter, both skill-set wise and pyschologically.

Fantasy Impact

Depending on who’s floating around on your waiver-wire, Milledge might just be worth holding onto.  Two weeks of riding a bus around in Syracuse should wake the kid up.  While I can’t see Milledge being down too long, the Nationals outfield is crowded as hoot with Dukes, Dunn, Kearns and Willingham.

I think I might even trade to acquire Milledge in a deep league, with the hopes that he gets a call in 2 weeks. Call me stupid, but I still think Milledge finishes with better numbers than someone like Jordan Schafer.  Then again, I’ve been baffled by just about every Nationals move this year, and wouldn’t be surprised if they kept him in Syracuse for the entire year.

In other Nats news, Willie Harris was placed on the DL and Anderson Hernandez was activated.  Hernandez is worth looking at in most formats, especially if he ends up batting early in that line-up. Dukes should get the CF AB, and we’re not sure who gets the call yet.

Full MLB Article On Milledge

By the by, I enjoy how the Syracuse Sky Chiefs still are sporting Blue Jays Colors on their Uniforms.  Ball-Out.

Busts

Not-So-Fast Hitter: Aaron Harang

Aaron Harang just put up a masterful, complete game, shut-out of the Bucos: 9 IP, 9K, 3H, 0 BB. That, my friends, is a fantasy-ace.  Harang was amongst everyone’s break-out candidates in 2009 after he posted ridiculously awful statistics in 2008.

After posting 3 seasons of sub-4.00 ERA in Cincinnati’s Great American Band Box, Harang fell face-first and posted a 4.78 ERA on route to a 6 Win, 17 Loss, season in 2008.

Fantasy owners expected Harang to return to his dominant ways, and thus was a popular high-risk/high-reward sleeper.  Harang hasn’t dissapointed, now having pitched 2 games his line is:

14 IP, 1 ER, 11 K’s, 10 H and 3BB.

Not…So…Fast:

Harang is essentially a two-pitch pitcher:

90mph fastball which he throws 70% of the time & 80mph slider which he throws about 20% of the time. Harang has also mixed in a change-up (we’ll get to this later), that prior to this year he was only throwing about 3-6 percent of the time. Harang’s experimented with a curve in the past as well.

Essentially without his change-up in 2008, Harang paid the price.  Harang’s back to using again, and it’s obviously paid dividends.  He’ll need to use it because…

Harang is tipping his pitches, not just a little, but a lot.  A lot of the time a release point will vary because a young pitcher is having issues replicating his delivery — not the case with Harang.  Harang has a consistent release point for both his Fastball and Slider, unfortunately for Harang, they’re nowhere near each other.

Batters should have no problem deciphering what pitch is coming, based solely on Harang’s exaggerated release point. Harang has solid above-average action on his pitches, so he may be able to get away with this for a while, but the book’s going to be out on him very shortly, and it’ll probably resemble the book that was out on him last year.

Thankfully, Harang has his change-up. Harang’s going to have to establish this pitch to have any chance at remaining a viable option in your rotation. The Change and the Fastball have the same release point, and it’s increased use should keep batters guessing.  If Harang reverts to his old ways, this could get ugly.

On that note, if I could get value from Harang now — I’d shop him.

Harang’s always had a whacky delivery, but I cannot see him succeeding with such a noticeable difference in release points.  If he keeps using his change-up, he’ll be serviceable or better — but this is one of those things I’d keep an eye out for.

If Harang can tighten up his delivery and release points, he’ll be devastating.  The addition of the change, which he’s throwing and throwing for strikes, could make Harang a fantasy ace.

We’re almost right back where we started, Harang’s still high-risk/high-reward.

Any comments pertaining to Harang’s 2007 & 2008 release points would be appreciated.

Photo Courtesy of Erik Eckle - Flickr

Busts

Dear John Letters…

I’ve been on a posting spree, as my better half has left me alone with the television and computer. This has resulted in me watching 3 baseball games (TOR v. CLE, BOS. v. LAA, NYY v. KCR), a UFC fight (St. Pierre vs. Penn II), and now Spike’s new television-awesome: Deadliest Warrior! Currently a GLADIATOR is being pitted against an APACHE WARRIOR.

Onto DEAR JOHN Letters,

Dear David Ortiz,

Remember the hole you had in your swing as a Twin? It’s back. You can’t get around like you used to, and quite frankly I’m sick of waiting around for you.  Even if you do get healthy, you’re more of a .930-.950 OPS guy now.  Maybe someone else thinks you can top 1.000, but not me.

Dear Evan Longoria,

I realize you’re young, and the best is yet to come, but I’ve got to say goodbye.  The 4 HR are nice, really, but I’m not buying your 44% HR:FB ratio.  I’m still pretty concerned about that K-Rate, too.  Maybe by the time this letter gets to you, I’ll have rethought my position.  You’re nice, but not second-round nice. x0×0x0x.

Dear Vladmir Guerrero,

Swinging at everything was cute when you were young, but I’m noticing a whole lotta grey in that beard of yours.  Like Ortiz, you’ll be useful but you’ll miss too many games to warrant your ADP.

Dear Alexei Ramirez,

Who do you think you are, Vladmir Guerrero?  Swinging at everything isn’t nearly as cute when you do it.  Baseball’s not all that easy when pitchers get the book on you, now is it?  You’ll adjust, and I’ll be sure to snap you up once your value’s hit rock bottom. Even with the small sample size, you’re 31.4 ZONE% is pretty concerning.

Dear Chris Davis,

I spent all Winter telling you that you struck out too much, and I’ve had enough.  Don’t you listen? You’ll never amount to anything if you keep up these bad habits.  All women love projects though, we like to think we can take a bad boy and turn him into a good boy. I’ll be giving you a call back once your trade-value dips low enough.

Dear Austin Kearns,

You’re half the man Elijah Dukes is, but you’re persistent as hell.  I’m sorry I have to do this, but at least your best quality is your arm — go put it to use.

Dear Justin Upton,

You’re hung like a horse, but you really need to learn how to use it. I feel violated.  I gotcha number on da speed dial though.

Dear Mark DeRosa,

Last year was great, and I love your friends in Cleveland this year, but 33-year-olds get worse with age, not better.  Sorry.

Dear Gladiator,

You lost to the Apache Warrior. I’m very dissappointed.

Busts

What Broke Oliver Perez?

Newly re-signed lefty Oliver Perez has run the fantasy-gamut; from royalty in 2004 with the Pirates to a pitcher more than a couple season ending ERAs on the wrong side of five, or 6 for that matter.  This past off-season, the Mets re-upped with Perez for 3 Years at 36 Million to the bewilderment of just about everyone who’s capable of understanding player values.

Fantasy owners have the luxury of paying for future performance rather than past performance, and avoiding pesky sports agents. Anyone who drafted Perez took a look at his past two years with the Mets, and figured upon 200 IP, 4.00 ERA, 175K, and a 1.35 WHIP. These numbers fit perfectly in the mid-to-back of your fantasy rotation, and they come with upside — fantasy owners love upside.

Unfortunately, Oliver Perez is broken.

On Thursday night against the Cincinnati Reds, Perez gave up 8 ER in 4.1 IP while allowing 5 walks and 5 hits — oh, and he struck out 7.  Perez’s ERA sits comfortably at 16.62, and he probably just cost you your week 1 head-to-head pitching categories.

Hopefully you didn’t start him though, as it’s been clear that Perez has been broken for a while. Perez pitched for Team Mexico in the World Baseball Classic, and looked awful. His line versus Australia reads: 2IP, 4ER, 7H, 1BB, 5K and 2HR.  Perez’s next start against Team Korea, resulted in 4.2IP, 4R (3ER), 6H, 2BB, 3K and 3 HR. Perez finished up the WBC with a 9.45 ERA, 2.40WHIP, 8K and allowed 5 HR. Perez allowed .75 HR, not per game, but per INNING.

The Mets and Pitching Coach Dan Warthen immediately knew that they’d shat the bed by allowing Perez to play in the WBC:

I was a little reticent when he left, and my worries have come to fruition,” Warthen said. “I think he needs the camaraderie of people that push him. So yes, I think he’s a guy that needs to stay with the group and be hands on. Ollie’s a guy that has to repeat his delivery time and time again, with a lot of volume delivery-wise. Yes, it set him back. He’s set back probably at least 10 days.

Warthen suggested that Perez had put on weight during his absence and “needs to start pushing himself a little more.”

Summary Of Pitching Coach Warthen’s Words: We knew Oliver Perez was lazy, and he’d gotten fat enough over the off-season.  We knew letting him out of our sight for more than a day would result in him coming back with awful mechanics, and a beer gut.  He probably has contracted at least a couple sexually transmitted infections too. We’re more concerned with his arm being out of shape, though. We did just pay him 36 Million Dollars.

When Perez was most successful, in 2004 with the Pirates, he was throwing his Fastball at 93mph, his Slider at 80.6mph, and change at 83.1mph. The velocity lead to a career high 239 strikeouts in 196 IP.  Perez managed to post a walk-rate of under 4 batters per 9IP, and came out of it with a 2.56 ERA.

The Mets knew they weren’t getting that Perez though, and in 2007, his most successful season with the Mets, Perez’s velocity had drastically decreased. His fastball topped out at 90.5mph, and his slider came in at 78mph, and the change was now floating around 81mph. Perez had essentially lost two miles per hour off his entire arsenal, and his walk rate was still hovering around 4 batters per 9.  All of this however was a gigantic improvement over the years between 2004 and 2007, where Perez was walking between 5 and 6 batters per 9.

Last year, in 2008, Perez once again regressed to a K:BB rate of under 2.00; which was probably a direct result of Perez adding another mph onto his pitches hyping the FB up to 91.2mph.

It’s quite clear that Perez has two approaches that’ll allow him to be a moderately successful pitcher; maintain solid velocity above 92mph, or maintain solid control below 4BB per 9.

Currently, Oliver Perez is doing neither.  Last night, Perez’s fastball averaged 89mph according to MLB gameday. Perez topped out at 91.9mph against Jay Bruce, and both 91mph pitches were out of the strike zone.

So What Broke Oliver Perez?

Perez is out of shape, and his mechanics are off, way off. His back-leg is bending too much, his hips are flaring, and he’s leaving the ball up.  When you leave the ball up, you get smashed.

Perez is going to have some awful outings until this gets fixed, at which point he’ll return to his lack-luster ways.  What Oliver Perez needs is innings, and I wouldn’t come anywhere near him for the foreseeable future.  The Reds have absolutely no plate discipline, and Perez still managed to walk five.  Perez may put up a solid effort in the next month against a team that’ll swing at anything (The Marlins come to mind,) but that still doesn’t mean he’s fixed.

In a deep league where a 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, with a High-K rate is rosterable, Perez will be worth owning once he gets the kinks worked out.  Right now, Perez’s numbers are going to mimmick some of the High-K rookies, and he doesn’t have the upside.  Perez isn’t nearly as sexy as Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill, or Rick Porcello but in the long run, he’ll probably post similiar numbers.

The ride will be just as crazy, and the only difference is the Mets will keep trotting him out there where the Athletics and Tigers will send the kids down if they start to get too wild.

Luckily for Perez owners, it appears that Perez has just developed some terrible tendancies and is in awful shape.  So long as his teammates ride him, and the coaching staff works the kinks out — Perez will be rosterable.

In shallow leagues, I’d cut bait unless I could sit him on the bench until he gets it together.  He will post solid W & K totals, but the rest will be ugly.

I have to point this out, even though I’d advise against reading the following statement.  Perez could post incredible second half numbers if his teammates really ride him.  If the Mets are in the play-off hunt, and the newly acquired Mets starting tearing him a new asshole. As with all players with more talent than motivation, things could …potentially …maybe …possibly …come together.

Here is your reward for making it to the end.. Take that Dwayne Wade.

Photo Courtesy of WallyG

Busts

Brad Ziegler and the Athletics ‘Pen

Joey Devine, who was appointed the Athletics’ closer during Spring Training was placed on the 60-Day Disabled List on Saturday, and will probably require surgery on his elbow ligaments, essentially ending his season.

In steps Brad Ziegler, one of the genuinely nice guys in the big leagues.  Ziegler came to fame during his record setting streak of 39 scoreless innings to start a career. Ziegler throws from a side-arm, not quite submarine, delivery and was ridiculously effective in 2008.

…but maybe it was just luck, Ziegler had a lot of things working for him:

1. Batters hadn’t seen Ziegler’s unconventional delivery
2. Ziegler’s strand rate of 92.3% was unbelievable
3. Ziegler’s BABIP of .246 was equally as insane
4. All of this resulted in Ziegler’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.72 grossly outpacing his actual ERA of 1.06

So what’s the deal with Ziegler?

He’s a ground ball pitcher (67% GB) that pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, in front of a very solid defense. The A’s home stadium rated as the 5th most favorable park for pitchers according to ESPN’s park factors. Mind you, Ziegler’s ground ball tendencies don’t benefit quite as much from the spacious foul territory that makes McAfee Coliseum a pitchers-paradise.

Even with these things working for him, Ziegler still isn’t a prototypical closer. In 2008, Ziegler didn’t miss bats (4.53K/9), and in turn, posted a terribly mediocre BB:K rate of 1.36.

Ziegler’s splits are terribly concerning, as is generally the case with submariners. Ziegler allowed 2 HR all year, and both came against lefties. Ziegler’s WHIP against lefties was 1.52, compared to his 0.88 WHIP against righties. His batting average against echoed these sentiments as Righties hit .198 compared to the .280 that lefties hit.  In addition to Ziegler having issues with lefties, you should expect his LOB% and BABIP to regress towards the mean.

This isn’t good news for Ziegler owners, and I’d ship him as soon as he gets a couple saves under his belt.

Who Steps In?

Santiago Casilla was nearly un-hittable until a May 15th elbow injury forced him onto the DL.  Upon his return, his ERA slowly rose from a May 11th mark of 0.47, all the way to his season-ending number of 3.93.

Unlike Ziegler, Casilla does have your typical closers stuff: 94-95mph fastball, 87mph slider, and a mid-80’s change-up. His change seemed to be incorrectly categorized quite a bit last year, as it was clocked at an average of 88mph.

Casilla has better splits, and has predicted stats of: 8-9 K per 9, 3-4 BB per 9 and 2.00-2.50 K:BB

25 year old Jerry Blevins is another solid option, as the tools are there but he tops out at about 92mph.

Journeyman Russ Springer has nice peripherals, and a nice mix of pitches but they’ll probably be best served earlier in the game. Like Blevins, he tops out at about 92mph.

Andrew Bailey also has high strike-out potential, but his control doesn’t bode overly well for his status as a closer.  He’s best suited for mid-to-long relief.

In the end…

The saves will be spread around, but I think Casilla ends up with better save totals than Ziegler.

There’s really only one conclusion that I’d be willing to stake my name on, and that’s Brad Ziegler doesn’t succeed as a closer.  Unless everyone else falls flat on their face, he wont Brian Wilson or Kevin Gregg the situation either.

Ziegler’s a solid pitcher, and a nice weapon to have, but he’s best suited as a situational pitcher.

Whoever wins the closers gig, will benefit from the stadium, defense, and improved offense of the Athletics.

Photo Courtesy of Ztil301 & Kimberly*, Flickr

Busts

The Curious Case Of The AL East.

As a native Torontonian and a Blue Jays season ticket holder, I get to behold the beauty that is the Yankees vs. Red Sox reloading period known as Free Agency.  People look at the Yankees and Red Sox as fantasy goldmines but with the recent reloading of their pitching staffs, combined with the maturation of the Rays; I’m curious as to how the rest of the AL EAST will fair.

How will the Orioles and Blue Jays offenses, and to a lesser extent the Yankees, Sox and Rays fair against pitching staff’s consisting of 4 and sometimes 5, potential aces. Unfortunately, it doesn’t end with the starting pitching as the bullpen’s in the AL East are also some of the best in the MLB.

Even in 2008, the numbers were:

BLUE JAYS

LOST: McGowan (Injury), Marcum (Injury), John Parrish, A.J Burnett. GAINED: Brian Burress, Mike Maroth, Matt Clement, Bryan Bullington,

RAYS

LOST: Edwin Jackson and Trever Miller. GAINED: Joe Nelson, Lance Cormier, Brian Shouse

YANKEES

LOST: Muissina (Retirement), Pavano, Ponson GAINED: Sabathia, Burnett

REDSOX

LOST: Timlin, Byrd, Schilling, Aardsma, Smoltz (Injury) GAINED: Tazawa (Japan), Ramon Ramirez, Penny, Smoltz, Saito

ORIOLES

LOST: Burress, Cabrera, Olson, Cormier GAINED: Uehara (Japan), Hendrickson, Rich Hill, David Pauley, Brad Hennessey, John Parrish

Onto the point young man, get to the point!

Blue Jays and Orioles hitters are going to be facing the Rays, Sox, and Yankees 18-19 times each. Which means they’ll be facing an above average cast of stars, a third of their season which doesn’t include anyone outside their division or Jeremy Guthrie, Roy Halladay, Dustin McGowan, etc. etc.

Season	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP
Sabathia	BJ	16	10	3.48	34	34	240	226	21	70	205	7.69	2.63	2.93	0.79	0.25	1.23
Burnett	BJ	14	11	3.62	33	32	224	199	21	88	218	8.76	3.54	2.48	0.84	0.24	1.28
Wang	BJ	13	9	3.7	30	30	200	208	11	58	92	4.14	2.61	1.59	0.5	0.269	1.33
Petitte	BJ	12	10	3.9	30	30	192	205	18	51	147	6.89	2.39	2.88	0.84	0.275	1.33
Chamberlain	CH	8	4	3.39	21	21	101	88	9	39	112	9.98	3.48	2.87	0.8	0.236	1.26
Hughes	BJ	9	5	3.35	22	22	125	110	9	46	122	8.78	3.31	2.65	0.65	0.238	1.25
Beckett	BJ	13	8	3.57	29	29	189	176	21	55	176	8.38	2.62	3.2	1	0.248	1.22
Matsuzaka	BJ	12	8	3.58	30	30	184	160	17	77	174	8.51	3.77	2.26	0.83	0.236	1.29
Lester	BJ	12	11	4.02	32	32	212	209	19	88	168	7.13	3.74	1.91	0.81	0.259	1.4
Penny	BJ	8	7	3.92	22	21	130	134	12	42	90	6.23	2.91	2.14	0.83	0.268	1.35
Smoltz	CH	6	5	3.87	15	15	93	95	9	25	78	7.55	2.42	3.12	0.87	0.266	1.29
Bucholz	CH	7	6	4.27	24	24	116	114	13	51	111	8.61	3.96	2.18	1.01	0.258	1.42
Wakefield	BJ	10	8	3.91	28	28	160	151	21	55	107	6.02	3.09	1.95	1.18	0.251	1.29
Kazmir	BJ	10	8	3.8	29	29	162	144	17	74	177	9.83	4.11	2.39	0.94	0.24	1.35
Shields	BJ	14	10	3.65	32	32	212	210	24	44	178	7.56	1.87	4.05	1.02	0.26	1.2
Garza	BJ	11	9	3.85	29	29	183	181	16	63	153	7.52	3.1	2.43	0.79	0.26	1.33
Price	CH	4	5	4.9	16	16	79	84	12	34	59	6.72	3.87	1.74	1.37	0.274	1.49
Sonnanstine	BJ	11	10	3.92	31	31	195	206	25	40	145	6.69	1.85	3.63	1.15	0.273	1.26
Niemann	CH	5	7	4.86	22	22	111	116	17	47	86	6.97	3.81	1.83	1.38	0.27	1.47
Halladay	BJ	17	10	3.18	32	32	241	228	18	44	172	6.42	1.64	3.91	0.67	0.251	1.13
Litsch	BJ	9	11	4.06	27	27	180	190	21	45	108	5.4	2.25	2.4	1.05	0.272	1.31
Purcey	CH	7	8	4.71	24	24	128	132	18	53	105	7.38	3.73	1.98	1.27	0.268	1.45
McGowan	BJ	7	7	3.95	22	22	128	124	12	52	110	7.73	3.66	2.12	0.84	0.256	1.38
Richmond	CH	5	7	4.89	19	19	105	115	17	36	73	6.26	3.09	2.03	1.46	0.28	1.44
Janssen	CH	3	3	3.81	44	0	52	54	4	14	34	5.88	2.42	2.43	0.69	0.269	1.31

BJ: Bill James Projection Model CH: Chone Projection Model when there was no BJ Data.

An Example:

Nick Markakis is one of the best young outfielders in the league, and most people have him improving upon his 20HR in 2008, and 23HR in 2007.  Some think this is a stretch, but it’s the prevailing thought.

Markakis will be facing Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Petitte, Chamberlain, Beckett, Dice-K, Lester, Penny, Smoltz/Buchholz, Wakefield, Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnanstine, Halladay and McGowan with the possibility of Hughes being thrown in there.

Sonnanstine, Penny, Wakefield, and McGowan come in as average players with the possibility of sub-4.00 ERAs.

The Red Sox, Yankees, Rays and Blue Jays all have stellar bullpens as well.

The question is whether or not Markakis projections should be adjusted based on the level of competition?

A Non-Math Conclusion — For Now.

As much as I’d like to assume that somehow, someway, the AL EAST pitching will be no better or no worse than it normally is, or the rest of the schedule will even everything out — I CANT! The talent either came from the NL, or within the AL EAST.

Thankfully, other than Alex Rios and Vernon Wells the Blue Jays really do not have any notable offensive fantasy contributors.

The Orioles on the other hand are filled with players that could potentially be effected by not only the front five, but also the depth of the Sox and Yankees. Nick Markakis, Aubrey Huff, Matt Wieters, and Brian Roberts are all going fairly high in 2009. Felix Pie, Adam Jones, Ty Wigginton and Melvin Mora are also on many people’s sleeper lists.

I’m not sure how this will play out, but with so much talent bunched at the top — I’m going to downgrade players on the Orioles and Blue Jays.

Players on the Rays, Yankees and BoSox should roughly stay the same as the O’s and J’s are a mess up front.

If you have the slightest clue as to how this will actually play-out, feel free to comment. For the time-being, I’ll attempt to put together some variety of maths to explain what a reasonable prediction would be a possible unexpected drop in production.

photo courtesy of keith allison flickr

Busts

A.J. Burnett – Starting Pitcher (SP) – New York Yankees

Determining Burnett’s fantasy value heading into 2009 is akin to flipping a coin, with heads being a healthy 200IP and tails being less than 100IP.

Now, a brief A.J. Burnett time-line (Courtesy of Canada’s Third-Most Awesome Sports Channel):

Dec 18, 2008: Signed as a free agent by the New York Yankees to a five-year contract.
Nov 5, 2008: Filed for free agency.
Sep 25, 2007: Missed 1 game (personal reasons).
Sep 24, 2007: Personal reasons, day-to-day.
Aug 12, 2007: Missed 35 games (right shoulder injury).
Jul 1, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 29).
Jun 28, 2007: Missed 13 games (right shoulder injury).
Jun 19, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 13th).
Jun 13, 2007: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 22, 2006: Missed 69 games (right elbow injury).
May 29, 2006: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow injury).
Apr 22, 2006: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Apr 15, 2006: Missed 10 games (elbow injury).
Apr 1, 2006: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Dec 6, 2005: Signed as a free agent by the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year contract.
Oct 27, 2005: Filed for free agency.
May 31, 2005: Missed 9 games (elbow injury).
May 23, 2005: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jan 17, 2005: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Oct 3, 2004: Missed 19 game (elbow injury).
Sep 19, 2004: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jun 3, 2004: Missed 53 games (elbow surgery).
May 12, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (elbow surgery).
Apr 3, 2004: Elbow surgery, 15-day DL.
Mar 28, 2004: Elbow surgery, sidelined indefinitely.
Dec 20, 2003: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Nov 19, 2003: Activated from the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
Oct 25, 2003: Missed 16 playoff and 139 regular season games (right elbow inflammation).
Apr 26, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL.
Apr 9, 2003: Missed 8 games (right elbow inflammation).
Mar 29, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 21).
Sep 14, 2002: Missed 24 games (right elbow injury).
Aug 19, 2002: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
May 6, 2002: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
May 7, 2001: Missed 29 games (broken right foot).
Apr 24, 2001: Sent on rehabilitation assignment to Brevard County (A).
Mar 31, 2001: Broken right foot, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 23).

When You sign a 5yr-82.5 million dollar contract, you get tossed into the hype machine. There’s a nice post over at fangraphs.com explaining how Burnett’s contract plays out, and their general players current value vs. how much they’re being paid.

So whats the deal with Burnett when it comes to his fantasy value?

If he pitches 200 IP, you’re getting at least 200K, a sub-1.25 WHIP, and round about 3.50ish ERA.  This is pretty much the second tier of starting pitchers. Very few pitchers can get to 230-240 strike-outs in a season, and a healthy Burnett is one of them.  You’re basically getting Edison Volquez’s numbers with a better WHIP, or Brandon Webb’s numbers with a few more K’s.

He’s not quite in the class of Lincecum and Santana but his high K-Rate, really makes up for the slight downgrade in the ERA & WHIP from all-stars like Hamels, and Peavy.

Burnett is now also pitching for the best offense money can buy, which means if he goes 6 — he’ll get a W.  Twenty wins seems more like a basement than a ceiling with that line-up behind him.

STATS: 9.5K per 9, 3.50 BB per 9, 2.5ish K:BB.

So if Burnett goes 230 IP, he’s a top-5 or 6 Pitcher.  Now, please factor in the risk. Burnett’s had elbow issues his entire career, and that probably isn’t going to change.  As ridiculous as the A-Rod speech on wanting to prove to the world that he was indeed worth 200 Million dollars was, it does hold true.

Burnett and Sabathia are going to have to prove their worth.  While this contains no statistical data at all, and is nothing more than a gut feeling; Burnett is going to be using his insane-uncle-charlie quite a bit.  He’ll be throwing hard (is 100mph still a possibility?), and if anything goes wrong he’ll start forcing it.

Obviously, no-one is going to draft Burnett based on 220 IP — So you’ve got to decide upon a number that you feel is reasonable.  Two 15-day DL stints seems about right to me. There’s nothing to Burnett to analyze other than his injuries.  When he’s healthy he puts up devastating numbers, and while his control could use some work — most fantasy players can live with a 1.25-WHIP.

When Burnett is off, Burnett’s got control issues but Burnett’s normally only off when he’s tweaked his elbow. He’s shown he can pitch through minor inflammation in contract years, so the question becomes whether or not he’ll pitch through injuries in New York.

Bank on 160IP from Burnett, plus 50-60 IP from your fantasy league’s replacement level player. If you assume a 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 5-6 K / 9 for your replacement level player you’re getting pretty much Burnett’s 160 strikeout’s plus about 40 from your replacement level guy.  So 220 IP nets you 200 K.

I arrived at these numbers arbitrarily, but in a normal league a 4.50 ERA,  1.40 WHIP and 5-6K per 9 seems fair.

160 IP nets you 62 Earned Runs at a 3.50 ERA, and combine that with 30 ER in 60 IP (4.50ERA) and you’ve got 92 ER in 220 IP. Burnett’s probable 3.50 ERA becomes a 3.76 ERA when you combine it with your 60 IP from a replacement level pitcher.

Burnett’s WHIP will be the most volatile, but I’ll consider the ceiling of 1.30ish + 60IP of 1.40ish. Burnett has 208 BB+H in 160IP, and Replacement has 84 BB+H in 60 IP.  Combined that’s 292 BB+H in 220 IP = 1.33 WHIP.

Our combined AJ Burnett (160IP) + Player X (60 IP) stats are as follows:

3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 200K

The only thing I can add as a native-Torontonian, is that it wont be a contract year for another 5 years.

USEFUL ARTICLE HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/aj-to-ny

and HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/aj-burnett-to-the-yankees

Lovely Elbow Shot courtesy of Larry Page / Flickr

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