Bust

Francisco Liriano: Overreaction Time?

If you drafted Liriano, you’re stuck with him.  After two lackluster outings, you probably will have to trade him for seventy-five cents on the dollar, which I wouldn’t recommend.

Liriano did however look anything but a fantasy ace today against the Chicago White Sox giving up 5 ER in 4.2 IP.  Liriano allowed 4 walks, 6 hits to go with 3 strike-outs.

This comes after he lead off the season with a 7 IP, 4 H, 4ER, 3K performance against the lowly Seattle Mariners.

Undergoing Tommy John surgery, nearly two and a half years ago, in the fall of 2006, Liriano should be good to go by now — he’s not.

Unfortunately, MLB’s GameDay data magically dissappeared for today’s outing against the White Sox, so we’ll have to rely on the miniscule sample size of the Seattle game.

Liriano’s base-line for awesomeness:

1. Throw Hard: 95mph average fastball in 2005-2006
2. Throw Slider: 37% of the time, at 87.7mph

Unfortunately, these are the qualities that caused Liriano to undergo Tommy John surgery, and these are the qualities he’s shying away from.

In 2008,  a year and a half after undergoing Tommy John surgery, it was clear that Liriano was protecting his elbow.  His fastball averaged out at 91mph, and his slider at 83.7mph. Liriano also shyed away from his slider, throwing it 10% less than previous years.

There was optimism though; Over the course of the season Liriano slowly began adding velocity to his fastball and slider, eventually raising their velocities to 91.2mph and 84.9mph.

The movement was still there, but it’s far easier to achieve the same movement at lesser speeds.

Francisco Liriano in 2009

Fastball 91.9mph, Slider 85.4mph. Liriano also threw his slider about 30 percent, which we can’t gather too much from, considering it’s only one game.

Liriano’s velocity is up from the previous fall, but it’s still nowhere close to where it was when he dominated.

The question becomes whether or not he’ll ever return to that point, and the answer is, probably not.

What made Liriano ridiculously unhittable was the amount of movement he achieved on a slider thrown so hard.  Batters would flail at pitches, and just look silly — this is how Liriano managed to post almost 11 strike outs per 9, in his first full major league season.

There is a glimmer of hope, which I’ve omitted purposely up until now, and that’s Liriano’s change-up.  The pitch has ridiculous potential, and he’s going to have to use it to be successful.

Liriano still may add another mile per hour onto all of his pitches, but I’m pretty certain the Twins will limit him.  They already screwed up once allowing him to pitch a full 200 innings between levels in 2008.

It’s a shame that the PFX cameras were down in Chicago, as I’ve been planning on watching this start for a week.  Alas, with an improved change-up, Liriano can still be a high-sevens strike-outs per 9 pitcher –  It’s not the end of the world.

Unfortunately, batters will continue to swing less and make more contact against Liriano, which’ll drastically decrease his fantasy value. With batters swinging less at pitches Liriano throws outside of the zone, Liriano will have to improve his control to succeed.

The things Liriano got away with in the past, are indeed, the past.

I’m not saying dump Liriano, but I am saying monitor his average velocity and pitch distribution very carefully over the coming weeks.

Photo Courtesy of Jon McNab

Bust

Is Big Fat Brad Penny Worth Rostering?

Is Brad Penny Worth Rostering For a Full Season? …Hell No!

Is Brad Penny worth rostering for part of a season? Maybe, Let’s find out…

If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for more than a year, you know the story behind Brad Penny.

Penny is serviceable before the All-Star break, but downright awful after it.  We’ll give Penny a freebie for his injury plagued 2008 season, but here goes:

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After excusing 2008′s woopsie moments, we have a pretty solid pitcher.  Early in Penny’s career, he was equally as dominant after the All-Star break  and often better.  This is why Penny’s career splits aren’t quite what you’d expect.  Penny’s no longer that pitcher, so focusing on the recent past is the most beneficial.

Looking at Penny’s first half splits, who wouldn’t want a pitcher that posts a sub-4.00 ERA to go with a WHIP of 1.20?

Whether or not Penny can maintain those numbers is up for debate however.  Penny has only ever pitched in two of the better pitches parks in the MLB: Florida and Los Angeles.

However, Penny also posted a better ERA and WHIP on the ROAD in both 2007 and 2006. Without digging too deep, this is almost certainly a result of pitching in the NL West.  In addition to the Dodgers’ home park, San Diego and San Francisco are also two of the pitcher-friendliest parks in the league.

You should expect somewhat of an increase in Penny’s ERA switching  from the NL West to the AL East. In addition to more hitter-friendly parks and better hitters, Penny will also now be facing a DH.

Luckily, most of the hitters haven’t seen Penny yet, which should give him some leeway early in the season; which is when we’ll be rostering him.

Now, the only question is whether or not Brad Penny is the same pitcher after last year’s nagging injury induced shoulder pain.

In 2008, Penny’s average fastball speed dipped more than 1mph to 92.4mph rendering Penny less than effective.

Penny’s effective when he’s averaging 93-94mph and hitting 95-96mph.

Let’s take a look at Penny’s start against Anaheim, which he’s allowed 3 Runs in 6 Innings work, thus far.

Penny’s average fastball is coming in at 92.5mph — uh, oh.

Digging deeper we find that Penny started out throwing 88-89mph to Figgins in the first, and slowly started to amp up his speed.  By the second inning, he was hitting 94mph against T. Hunter, 93mph against Morales, and 95mph against Juan Rivera.

By the third inning, Penny was consistently hitting 93-95mph, which is where he needs to be.

Penny maintained this speed well into the game, and was still hitting 94-95mph well into the 6th inning.

Penny’s final line on the day: 6IP, 3ER, 2K, 2BB, 5H, 2HR — which isn’t all that bad considering he was held for most of Spring Training.

Penny’s next three starts are: vs. BALTIMORE, vs. MINNESOTA, @CLEVELAND.

I can’t completely recommend Penny until reports come out about how his shoulder feels tomorrow, but if 6IP and 3ER is rosterable in your league, then Penny’s worth an add.

Obviously, this is probably all for not because some Red Sox homer undoubtedly already owns Penny.

If you’re in a league that values performance over name-recognition though, Penny’s probably sitting on your waiver-wire and you should think about Rent-A-Penny for the next month or two.

If you do pick up Penny, be sure to keep an eye out for injury reports and his velocity (which you can follow on MLB gameday)

One final caveat about Brad Penny: There are almost certainly better options on your waiver-wire, so think before you grab Brad Penny.

Photo Courtesy of Malingering . Flickr

Bust

Miguel Tejada’s Fantasy Value – Out for 2009?

Not only did Miguel Tejada lie about his age, he’s managed to get his ass arrested for lying about steroids. Bam and BAM!

As far as I can tell, Tejada lied about knowing nothing regarding steroid use.  This seems somewhat ridiculous — You either just shut-your-yap and don’t say a damn thing or you say “Yes, I know people who used roids but I’m not a snitch — snitches get stitches, bi-otch”.

Tejada “unlawfully withheld pertinent information from the committee because defendant Tejada, before and during his interview with the committee staff, then and there well knew that player #1, one of his teammates on the Oakland Athletics, had used steroids and HGH,” the papers state.

In fact, prosecutors charge, during spring training in 2003, Tejada had purchased a substance believed to be HGH from the player. –AP

Tejada was scheduled to hit 5th in a half-decent Astro’s line-up this year, which would have served his stats well.  Carlos Lee is healthy, and Berkman can rake — goodtimes.

Now, it really looks like Miguel Tejada could miss opening day and possibly a few months.  This drops Tejada into fantasy obscurity.

Buyer Beware.

Bust

Daniel Murphy – OF, 2B, 3B – New York Mets

The Hype Machine loves New York and while it prefers the Yankees, the Mets will suffice.  Daniel Murphy selected in the 13th round of the 2006 draft put up solid stats after an early August 2008 call-up.

While Murphy isn’t quite the prospect that Fernando Martinez is, he’ll be the one to break camp with a starting gig.  He’ll be battling former Baseball America top-prospect Jeremy Reed, veteran journey-man Fernando Tatis and everyone’s favorite oxymoron Angel Pagan for at-bats in the left field position.

Daniel Murphy, welcome to the hype-machine.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
2008	NYM	49	131	24	41	2	17	18	28	0	2	.397	.473	.313
Total		49	131	24	41	2	17	18	28	0	2	.397	.473	.313

It’s pretty clear that we’re dealing with a tiny sample size, when examining Murphy’s professional career. So, to the minors we go:

Year	Age	Team	Level	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	AVG	OBP	SLG	OPS
2004	19	JCK	NCAA	32	77	12	29	5	1	1	9	3	1	9	13	0.377	0.455	0.506	0.961
2005	20	JCK	NCAA	54	219	35	72	12	2	2	31	11	3	11	23	0.329	0.381	0.429	0.81
2006	21	JCK	NCAA	57	221	54	88	10	1	6	55	15	7	34	13	0.398	0.47	0.534	1.004
	21	KIN	Rk	9	33	2	9	0	0	2	7	0	0	4	1	0.273	0.351	0.455	0.806
	21	MET	Rk	8	18	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	4	3	0.056	0.227	0.056	0.283
	21	BRO	A-	8	29	2	7	1	0	0	3	0	0	4	3	0.241	0.324	0.276	0.6
2007	22	ST.	A+	135	502	68	143	34	3	11	78	6	3	42	61	0.285	0.338	0.43	0.768
2008	23	BRO	A-	3	14	1	7	0	0	0	2	0	0	0	2	0.5	0.5	0.5	1
	23	BIN	AA	95	357	56	110	26	1	13	67	14	5	39	46	0.308	0.374	0.496	0.87
	23	NO	AAA	1	4	2	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0	0.25	0.4	0.25	0.65

An impressive 2007 gave way to a spectacular 2008, which lead to an incredible MLB-rookie debut.  Daniel Murphy probably wont continue raking at a .340+ clip as he did in the Minors, or even a .313 rate that he posted in the first 49 MLB games.

There’s no reason to believe that Daniel Murphy can’t at least hit between .290 and .300 over the course of a season while posting a .360 OBP.

In 2008, Murphy posted a stupid-silly BABIP of .386 which is bound to come down. This is why the stat-heads always warn you about small sample-sizes.  Of course Murphy’s batting average will drop as his BABIP drops, but his 33% LD rate seems like a half-decent indicator of a higher than average BABIP for the rest of Murphy’s career.

The problem is whether or not he’ll stick at the big-league level.  Murphy can competantly play the outfield, third-base, and first-base.  Last year the second base experiment began, and while he’s not naturally suited to the position, it’s one of the few places on the diamond where he has an above average bat.

If Murphy sticks at 2nd base going into 2009, he’ll be a steal.  Whether or not he bats in the two-hole, or in the 7th or 8th spot will also make a difference.

Murphy’s got double-digit HR potential, and should post a solid average. Even if he hits at the end of a decent Mets line-up the R & RBI should be fine.

Bill James’ prediction model has Murphy at 74 RBI / 73 RUN / 14 HR /  14 SB / .296 AVG.

This looks pretty rosterable to me.

Murphy also had a solid Arizona Fall league season posting a .397 AVG / .487 OBP / .619 SLG

The Verdict: Murphy’s going to be a great late round flyer in the outfield, with the upside of transforming that power into a starting second base gig.  As long as Murphy finds a way to play, he’ll be worth rostering in deeper leagues.  Feed the machine, it feasts on doubles hitters in high-octane offenses.

Bust

Mike Aviles – Shortstop (SS & 2B) – Kansas City Royals

So Mr. Aviles, you appeared as if you were going to be a life-long minor leaguer.  Your skill set doesn’t particularly fill up the stat sheet, nor does it generally create all that much hype.  Then you get to the majors and put up a .325 Batting average in 419AB.

Mike Aviles, welcome to the hype machine.

Seeing as how Mike Aviles has only played but one season in the major leagues, it’s going to be somewhat useful to look deeper into his minor league past.  First off, the stats from 2008 for Mike Aviles, Royals Shortstop / Second Baseman.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
2008	KC	102	419	68	136	10	51	18	58	8	3	.354	.480	.325
Total		102	419	68	136	10	51	18	58	8	3	.354	.480	.325

Followed by his Minor League Statistics:

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
2003	R-Royals	52	212	51	77	19	5	6	39	13	28	11	5	.404	.585	.363
2004	A-Wilmington	126	463	66	139	40	4	6	69	39	57	2	5	.352	.443	.300
2005	AA-Wichita	133	521	79	146	33	6	14	80	30	64	11	6	.318	.447	.280
2006	AAA-Omaha	129	469	52	124	21	3	8	47	28	48	14	5	.307	.373	.264
2007	AAA-Omaha	133	538	78	159	27	6	17	77	30	59	5	5	.332	.463	.296
2008	AAA-Omaha	51	214	42	72	21	6	10	42	11	23	3	0	.370	.631	.336

So what the hell happened in 2008? Somehow, through a series of levers and pulleys, Mike Aviles managed to put up amazing numbers in triple-A and then carry them over to the major league level.

First off, Aviles comes in as a useful cog even if he under performs.  Trey Hillman’s only other option is Tony Pena Jr. who may well be the worst hitting player, let alone shortstop, in the history of the game.  There are at least 5 pitchers I’d rather hand the bat too in a clutch situation.

The first problem with Aviles, is that he came out of nowhere.

1. This could be a random fluctuation in his stats, even when spread about 600 PA there is still an insane margin of error. I’ve recommended “The Book” before, but it does explain quite well that even a full season isn’t a particularly stellar means of judging a players talent.
2. Secondly, something like this screams performance enhancing drugs.
3. Third, and the one you’re hoping for if you’re drafting Aviles — something clicked.

In Six minor league seasons, Aviles hit a respectable .297 with very little power or speed.  In one major league season, Aviles hit .325.

Maybe something did click, but Aviles has very little margin for error.  While his contact rate is solid 84.4% contact rate, with a 91% contact rate in the zone.  With that said, Aviles only walks 4-5% of the time. As he only strikes out 10-13% of the time, this keeps his BB:K at a manageable .40-.50.

Aviles batting average on balls in play (BABIP) was an inflated .359, which is bound to come down. The standard practice of adding .120 to a players line-drive percentage brings an expected BABIP to about .320. Aviles batting average should come down to levels more likely around his minor numbers, and expecting something between .275-.290 is aboot right. Bill James’ projection system has Aviles hitting about .288, sounds good.

When you combine that with the fact that Aviles doesn’t walk, we’ve got a problem.  You’ve got to get on base to score runs, and while I’m high on the Royals offense, we’ve got a big problem.

This’ll more than likely mean a demotion in the batting order to the lower half, more than likely 6th or seventh which results in another problem, a lack of RBI.

Bill James’ has Aviles at 78 Runs and 72 RBI, but I’m not quite buying it. He’ll come close, but there are plenty of other guys that’ll have an equal shot at those numbers.

The Verdict: Do Not Feed The Machine! If you really want to, just get your tetanis shot first. It is old and rusty.

Photo Courtesy of TeresaHsu / Flickr.com

Bust

Justin Upton – Outfield (OF) – Arizona Diamondbacks

With a name like Upton, you’ve gotta be good. Justin Upton, welcome to the hype machine.

There’s no doubt, in anyone’s mind that Justin Upton is going to be an incredible player.  Fangraphs recently looked at the players that managed 100 AB Major League At-Bats after making it to the majors as a 20 year old, or younger (find it here)

This list includes: Alomar, Beltre, Cabrera, Crawford, Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes and a boat load of other All-Stars, Future Hall of Famers, and Solid Major Leaguers. B.J. Upton, his partner in crime and blood-brother also makes this list.

The question is, will Justin Upton be useful this year. Here’s the juice, so far:

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
2007	ARI	43	140	17	31	2	11	11	37	2	0	.283	.364	.221
2008	ARI	108	356	52	89	15	42	54	121	1	4	.353	.463	.250
Total		151	496	69	120	17	53	65	158	3	4	.334	.435	.242

First off, regardless of Upton’s insane athletic ability, he’s not going to steal a tonne of bases.  Even in the Minors, for every base Upton stole (36 Minor League SB) he was caught half a time (18 CS).

Maybe Upton grows into it, but realistically just assume Upton will not steal bases.  If he does, you can smile and nod while enjoying the 10SB you just found on the street.

Now, onto the power and average.

Most of the prediction systems, Bill James included, have Justin Upton barely hitting 130 Games. Bill James is the only one of the bunch that has Upton getting to 450 AB (James has 506AB, Marcel has 368, CHONE has 435, and Oliver has 365)

Upton should well play a full season as the Diamondbacks’ starting Right Fielder. If you pencil Upton in for 600 AB, and 145 Games things get interesting.

Bill James projection of 22 Home Runs suddenly becomes 26 home runs, over 600 AB. 79 RUNs scored over ~500 AB, suddently ends up being 93 R. RBI over 500 AB are 68 and expanded to  600 you end up with 81 RBI.

Suddenly we have a 93 R / 26HR / 81 RBI player. Obviously, you can assume that an extrapolated  batting average and slugging percentage will remain the same: .265 BA, .356 OBP, .488 SLG.

It looks like we have a solid player, with a mediocre batting average with a whole lot of upside.  The downside with Justin Upton last year was clearly his 34% strike-out rate. All of the projection models have him coming down to about 28-29% strike-out rate.  So any improvement on those numbers, would more than likely positively effect their projections.

Regardless of the K-Rate, Upton still has the “patience” to take walks.  It’s somewhat reassuring to see him register a 12%  BB-Rate which keeps his BB:K ratio at a tolerable .40 to .50 area.

The other concerning factor is his Contact Rate of 68 Percent, overall.  Which is composed of a 50.5 Percent contact rate outside the zone (O-Contact) and a 74.4 percent contract rate within the zone (Z-Contact).

There are only 8 Players with worse contact rates, that had 100AB, starting with the worst:Mark Reynolds, Kelly Shoppach, Donnie Murphy, Jack Cust, Tony Clark, Ryan Howard, Miguel Olivo and Kevin Cash.  Everyone’s favourite sleeper, Chris Davis, is tied with Upton with a 68.1% Contact rate.

Of these players, Justin Upton by far has the best contact rate on pitches outside of the zone with the next closest being 46.9% to his 50.5%.  So the problem lies clearly in his contract rate, within the zone.  Maybe Upton has a hole in his swing. Maybe not.  Either way, he has a full off-season to correct it, and should improve on last years numbers.

Conclusion and Comparison: Assuming he’s allowed to play through slumps, which is bound to happen with his contact rate being so low, Upton should man-the-fuck-up and get to 600 AB.  With that said, you’re essentially getting someone in the range of the underrated Jose Guillen. Mid-Twenties Homers, about 175 total R + RBI, and a batting average that can range from .250 to .290.

Verdict: It’s clear what Upton needs to improve on, very clear: K-rate and Contact Rate.  Set Jose Guillen as your base-line and move him up from there based on how well you think he’ll fair improving the holes in his game.  Feed the Machine, Feed it good.