Brendan Ryan

Khalil Greene – For The Win!

In standard 12 team mixed leagues, you’re accustomed to seeing Khalil Greene’s name atop the waiver wire.  The man just sits there like a plague, each and every year, waiting for some fool to notice his latest power surge between stints of being downright awful and add him to their roster.
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Brendan Ryan

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining Shortstops.

And now onto the ESPN shortstop rankings, which seem pretty solid at least at first glance.  There’s a few guys I’m not fans of, but they’re ranked in these spots by just about every expert.  They’ll probably perform at this level, and I’ll probably be wrong.  Regardless of such reality, I’ll rank ‘em where I think they’ll perform:

Rank	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	MIX$	AL/NL$	UP/DWN
1	1	Hanley Ramirez	FLA	SS	38	40
There’s always an argument for not taking someone first, but this year Hanley seems like a sure-fire bet for number 1 in all leagues.
2	4	Jose Reyes	NYM	SS	35	35
Hopefully the power will come, all the signs were there and then he fell flat on his face. If he adds the power so many scouts said he had him in, he’ll rival hanley.
3	9	Jimmy Rollins	PHI	SS	31	34
Rollins had a nasty year last year, and the only thing that saved him were those stolen bases. I’d expect somewhat of an improvement across the board, which’ll be offset by a dip in speed numbers
4	65	Derek Jeter	NYY	SS	12	24	DOWN
I’m not a Jeter fan, but he does put up numbers across the board. He’ll undoubtedly go too high in your league, but batting early in that New York line-up will help his R and probably his RBI totals too. The loss of A-Rod hurt him though.
5	70	Rafael Furcal	LAD	SS	10	24
Furcal’s just gotta stay healthy and he’d easily come in at 3rd overall on this list. He’s a perfect power/speed combo but has as many injury concerns as anyone in the league
6	78	Stephen Drew	ARI	SS	9	23	DOWN
I’m on the fence with Drew. He’s young and there’s lots of room for improvement, but there’s also plenty of room for him to be a bust this year before going on to have a long prosperous career. Last year’s .291 average shouldn’t be expected again. Think more in the .275 range.
7	88	Troy Tulowitzki	COL	SS	8	20	UP
Tulo should rebound nicely after last years abysmal start. 8HR and .263 isn’t Tulowitzki. Think closer to 20HR with a .290 average. Could be a steal, but like Drew could also fall flat on his face
8	105	Michael Young	TEX	SS	7	20	DOWN
Young’s moved over to third to allow the speedster Andrus to get AB. While Young was never a defensively gifted SS, the move to a somewhat less demanding position defensively should help prolong his career. Texas’ line-up is always fun to watch, and expecting the same as last year seems about right. Somewhere around .300 with about 15 HR seems reasonable.
9	130	J.J. Hardy	MIL	SS	5	16	DOWN
25HR, .275 BA, and about 80-85 Runs and RBIs seems reasonable. Hardy’s one of the better RBI producing Shortstops, if you skimped in the power-positions.
10	139	Jhonny Peralta	CLE	SS	5	17	UP
Another RBI man, Peralta has been up and down the last few years but he’s starting to level off into a consisent run-producing machine. Peralta doesn’t steal though, and this may pose a problem if you haven’t grabbed speed elsewhere. In the ballpark of 100 Runs and 85RBI with 20 HR is as good as it gets at the position though.
11	159	Mike Aviles	KC	2B/SS	4	15	DOWN
I’m not sure why I dislike Aviles so much, he hasn’t done anything wrong. His Minor League numbers show his .330 AVG wasn’t out of the blue but – Never Bet the Farm On BA, and that .359 BABIP is gaudy. When the end of the year rolls around you should be happy that Aviles hit .295 with 70 each of RBI and RBI, and maybe 10-15HR. He could go for 20 if all the stars align, I guess.
12	166	Miguel Tejada	HOU	SS	3	13
It looks like Tejada is going to get off with just probation for his little escapade. I wont get into how much bullshit that is, but Tejada does what he does and the Astros are a better team for it. The Days of 30HR are over, but there’s probably still a 10 percent shot of an insane year. In a perfect world, we’re insanely happy with 23-24 HR to go with 80 of R&RBI. Realistically, 20 HR and 75 of each seems right.
13	176	Ryan Theriot	CHC	SS	3	13	DOWN
Somethings things look too good to be true, and Theriot is one of them. The .307 Average is bound to drop, 22 SB is nothing to write home about and his Run numbers will free-fall if he cant get on base. There’s a lot of Theriot bashing going on over at Fangraphs, but that BABIP vs. Expected BA really stands out…330 vs 290. You think he’ll free-fall?
14	204	Jason Bartlett	TAM	SS	1	11	DOWN
How much is 20 SB worth to you? With Bartlett, you’re getting an extra 15 SB over the no-stealers above him, but you’re sacramenting everything else. .280, 60 Runs, 50 RBI with a .280ish average. Bartlett is however a possible break out player and realistically just needs to move himself up in the line-up to have great value. Unfortunately, with Upton, Crawford and Iwamura up there, the odds of movin’ on up are slim.
15	215	Orlando Cabrera	OAK	SS	1	10	UP
Cabrera’s a great fit in a very improved Oakland offense. Move him up more than a couple spots. He may be the biggest asshole money can buy, but 80 Runs and 70 RBI seem about right depending on where he hits. He’s always been at least an average base-stealer, and so long as he doesn’t start getting nabbed all the time – he’ll steal 15-20.
16	232	Elvis Andrus	TEX	SS	1	10
Speed Kills and it better, because at this point Andrus doesn’t have anything else. Even if he takes up the rear of the Rangers batting order, he’ll still score runs. 65Runs, and say 45-50RBI is about right… and then BAM, if he’s allowed to run he’ll steal 40-50.
17	255	Jed Lowrie	BOS	SS/3B	$-	10	DOWN
I’m not a fan of Average Lowrie. Everything about him screams average, to slightly above average. There’s a shot Lugo still takes his job. Whoever wins the job will put up good, solid, numbers in the Red Sox lineup.
18	263	Cristian Guzman	WAS	SS	$-	8
Guzman got on base at a ridiculous clip last year. If he bats lead-off again this year, and maintains his silly-stupid leadoff skills he’ll be a top 12 SS. Unfortunately nothing leads us to believe that Guzman can do what he did last year again. I like Guzman as a boom/bust type in that improved Nat’s lineup.
19	276	Yunel Escobar	ATL	SS	$-	7	UP
There’s nothing not to love about a guy who walks as much as he strikes out, while hitting .300. Escobar will put up a nice OBP if that’s your thing. He wont run much, but 10 HR and 70R/60RBI seems about right.
20	285	Khalil Greene	STL	SS	$-	6	UP
My favourite sleeper, or at least one of them. Over the past 3 or 4 years, I’ve grown to hate Khalil Greene and his infinite talent with all of my soul. I figure a change of scenery may actually help him, and while he’s killing spring training pitching I wouldn’t move him up too high. That BA will kill you even if he ups it to .260
21	291	Brandon Wood	LAA	SS/3B	$-	8
One day Wood is going to get a shot to prove his worth without feeling like he could be sent down after an 0/4 performance. I think if Wood ever gets a fair shot, he’ll eventually develop into what everyone thought he’d become. This year, I just cant see where he’ll play unless someone gets hurt. Someone always gets hurt though.
22	296	Clint Barmes	COL	2B/SS	$-	6
Do not like Barmes, at all.
23	300	Asdrubal Cabrera	CLE	2B/SS	$-	8	UP
Do Like Cabrera, a lot. A healthy clean-up hitter, a healthy Cleveland line-up = sneaky good numbers for Cabrera.
24	318	Erick Aybar	LAA	SS	$-	7
Well, someone’s gotta play short and I’d rather have Aybar over Izturis.
25	322	Edgar Renteria	SF	SS	$-	5	UP
Awful San Fran line-up but Edgar deserves to be a smidgen higher. He should bat early, and big ‘ol Bengie Molina will drive him in.
26	331	Yuniesky Betancourt	SEA	SS	$-	6
27	344	Jerry Hairston Jr.	CIN	SS/OF	$-	5	UP
I like Hairston a lot, he had a great year last year in limited action and it looks like that’ll be the case this year too. He’s quick, and’ll steal bases. Dickerson looks to have the LF job on lock-down, but he could falter. Hairston’s versatility makes him useful in almost any league.
28	348	Julio Lugo	BOS	SS	$-	5
Awful BA, could steal some, will score some. Watch the Lugo/Lowrie situation unfold, LIVE on mlb.com
29	370	Jeff Keppinger	CIN	SS	$-	4
…never bank on BA for value
30	377	Emmanuel Burriss	SF	2B/SS	$-	4
Speed is nice. Frandsen is not.
31	381	Cesar Izturis	BAL	SS	$-	5
An Age’d Freddy Bynum
32	393	Maicer Izturis	LAA	2B/SS	$-	4
Could steal some…
33	395	Alex Gonzalez	CIN	SS	$-	3
No thank you.
34	466	Aaron Miles	CHC	2B/SS	$-	2
35	472	Nick Punto	MIN	2B/SS	$-	2	UP
Punto should go higher, as he’ll get his AB.
36	476	Nomar Garciaparra	OAK	SS	$-	2
37	479	Brendan Harris	MIN	2B/SS/3B	$-	2
38	487	Brendan Ryan	STL	2B/SS	$-	1
39	517	Bobby Crosby	OAK	SS	$-	2
Thank God the Bobby Crosby Experiment is over. I hear he’s learning second base now!
40	522	Ben Zobrist	TAM	SS/OF	$-	2
41	524	Jack Wilson	PIT	SS	$-	1
42	527	Marco Scutaro	TOR	2B/SS/3B	$-	1
Hrm, move him up a smidgen.
43	528	David Eckstein	SD	SS	$-	1
44	534	Gordon Beckham	CHW	SS	$-	1
If he plays this year, Chicago is on crack. I wrote a piece on him the other day, and while I love him – rushing him is an awful idea.
45	551	Tony Pena Jr.	KC	SS	$-	1
46	565	Angel Berroa	NYY	SS	$-	$-	UP
This one’s interesting. Move him up.
47	685	Ronny Cedeno	SEA	2B/SS	$-	1
48	735	Brian Bixler	PIT	SS	$-	$-
49	738	Brent Lillibridge	CHW	SS	$-	$-
50	754	Alcides Escobar	MIL	SS	$-	$-	UP
Nice place to end the rankings, but if Escobar plays I’d expect him to be higher than this. If Bill Hall continues to Bill Hall the situation, I’d expect Escobar to make his way into the line-up rather than Gamel. I think Hardy can play 3B – actually, it may be a pipe dream. Disregard.

ESPN hasn’t missed much with these rankings but,

Adam Everett – Detroit Tigers: While Everett brings the suck, he’s probably got a starting job save Ramon Santiago stealing a couple AB here and there.  In that Tigers line-up, everyone should have value.  Carlos Guillen’s days at shortstop are well over.

There’s a couple here and there, but I’m pretty satisfied with these rankings.