I’m sure you’re not surprised to learn that Tim Lincecum leads the league in K/9 (11.92) but sandwiched in between him and Yovani Gallardo (10.72) are three formerly hyped prospects.  Brandon Morrow (11.83K/9), Bud Norris (10.75) and Justin Masterson (10.74) are posting jaw-dropping numbers.  Unfortunately, all three of the aforementioned pitchers have had issues throwing strikes, which all but negates their terrific strike-out numbers.

First up, Bud Norris, the hard-throwing Astros righty.  Norris recently put together a gem against the Cardinals, going eight innings without allowing a single walk!  Norris finished the game with a line of 8IP, 1ER, 8K, 0BB while throwing 65 of 99 pitches for strikes.

Other than walks, the biggest factor to Norris’ success will be his change-up.  The downward movement on the pitch appears to be greatly improved this year which has lead to him throwing it almost twice as much.

I  like Bud Norris going forward but it’s going to be a bumpy ride with instances where his control completely abandons him.  If Norris can put together one more start where he walks fewer than 3 batters, I’ll start tooting his horn a lot more.  For those of you that monitor FIP and xFIP, Norris’ is outplaying his ERA of 6.03 by quite a bit with a 3.48 and 4.15, respectively.

Justin Masterson is next in line and there’s no way in hell that I would’ve predicted this start.  When Masterson came up, I thought his K-numbers from the minors would completely evaporate.  Masterson is essentially a sinkerballer who floats between 90 and 93 on his two  seam fastballs.  Yet with just a 2-seamer and a slider, Masterson’s managed to induce a Swinging Strike Percentage of over 9.0% every year that he’s been in the league.   The strike-outs can’t possibly continue at this rate but I wouldn’t be surprised to see something higher than 8K/9 from him going forward.  Masterson has a few series coming up against NYY, BOS and TAM in the next couple of months but other than that, the schedule doesn’t scare me.  Masterson’s .412 BABIP against stands out like a sore thumb given his propensity to throw the sinker.  When the BABIP and LOB% regress, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 4.00 ERA pitcher emerge.

Brandon Morrow

Last outing against the Red Sox, Morrow just couldn’t throw strikes.  It was painful to watch and even more painful to examine (32 strikes to 35 balls.)

SideBar: As I type this, Morrow is once again getting hit hard courtesy of the Rangers.

Of all three, Morrow has the best ‘pure’ stuff:  95mph fastball, 88mph slider,  a change and a show-me curveball (that’s better than you’d imagine.)  Morrow’s combination of heat and offspeed stuff give him the highest ceiling but his inability to throw strikes will limit its attainability.

Right now and probably for the foreseeable future, Morrow will be a match-up guy.  If he’s facing a light-hitting team or a team that has a tendency to chase; Morrow’s worth a start.

Regardless of the Rangers’ power, they do chase a lot of pitches.  Today’s start should be a decent litmus test for Brandon Morrow.

Drafting former can’t miss prospects has always been the way that I, personally, win leagues.  To attain the status of top-50 prospect, especially with pitching, the underlying skill-set has to be there.  Pitchers anointed can’t-miss almost always have a good-to-great fastball along with at least one plus off-speed pitch.  In most cases they’ll have a decent tertiary offering that allows them to get opposite-handed batters out, as well.  As for hitters, they’ll either have the raw-power or pitch recognition skills to excel at the minor leagues, but they’ll often find themselves lacking plate-control or the ability to take a walk at the big league level.

I hate to undermine the difficulty associated with adapting to the big-league level, but these prospects are generally just an epiphany away from making a huge splash.  The realization that they can no longer just cruise by on natural talent alone tends to breed the kind success that everyone saw in their future a year or two ago but overlooked in favour of the newest cant-miss prospect..

Ta Da: A List of Pitchers

David Price: I mentioned Price yesterday and realistically, he’s one of the best bets on the season to jump into the top-20 starting pitchers.  160 Strike-Outs doesn’t seems like a reasonably attainable number, at this point.  If he can work his way through 180-200 Innings Pitched, the sky’s the limit.

Clay Buchholz: When you’re penciled in as the fifth starter, retaining your job isn’t a sure thing.  In Boston however, injuries to one of the front-five will lead to a plethora of opportunities for Buchholz to prove his worth.  Dice-K’s currently on the shelf and John Lackey hasn’t hit 180IP for two consecutive years.  Josh Beckett’s no better, even if he’s finally starting to come together as the Texas workhorse that everyone predicted.  In 2009, Buchholz drastically lowered his LD%(-3%) while increasing his GB% (+6%) over 92 IP.  With an improved defense behind him, the only thing Buchholz needs to do is control his BB%, something that’s been steadily climbing.  Buchholz is another pitcher that can notch 8K/9 on his way to posting an ERA around 4.00.  For the life of me, I can’t understand why Buchholz change-up is popping up as a negative on Fangraphs’ Pitch-Values Chart.  It’s a good pitch, but there’s a chance that he may be over-relying on it.  I get the feeling that Buchholz is actually working in the zone too much, rather than letting his pitches do the work for him.

Phil Hughes: Jim Callis over at Baseball America tied Buchholz and Chamberlain at the hip, but from my perspective it’s always been Buchholz and Hughes.  Phil Hughes put up deadly numbers as a reliever in 2009, while faltering as a starter: so don’t take the 10K/9 and 3BB/9 at face value.  The biggest change by far was the ramping up of the slider into essentially a cutter.  Hughes brought the heat with 94MPH on the fastball and 88.4MPH on the cutter.  I have trouble believing he’d maintain velocity as a starter, but his curveball and change are workable.  Hughes’ should, with Joba waiting in the wings, be one of the more enjoyable evolutions to watch.  He’s capable of being a four-pitch command pitcher, or the fastball-cutter-curve pitcher we saw come out of the pen.  If I’m watching pitch-distribution for anyone, it’s Hughes.  I love his chances going forward, and wouldn’t be a tad bit surprised to see 50% fastballs, 25% Cutters, 15% Curves with the remaining 10% being split between his Change-Up and his old-school Slider (ie. taking 5mph off his cutter).

As a Jay’s fan, I could realistically see Phil Hughes learning to work the Cutter much like Halladay did.  No, I’m not joking.

Jeff Neimann: Well that didn’t take long.  Niemann’s already hurt.  Either way, he’s absolutely massive and showed the ability to make his split-finger / change-up work for him.  He’s been working his fastball between 91 and 94mph for a while now, and I don’t expect that to change.  There’s no way that he can stay healthy, but if he does, he’ll put up numbers.

Ian Kennedy: How often do you have to be compared to Mike Mussina to actually become the “Moose”?  While a switch of scenery could’ve helped Joba, Hughes or Kennedy become a legitimate front-end starter, it was Kennedy that found himself packing his bags.  Now in Arizona, Kennedy actually has a chance to sink or swim.  It appears as though the injury issues are behind him, and he’s finally ready to just pitch.  In his first start as a D-Back, he went five innings while striking out 8 batters.  He’s got four pitches that he can work and throw for strikes and I think Arizona might just be the place for him.  After Webb gets healthy, he’ll find some starts, I’m sure.

Brandon Morrow: Sticking with the 2006 Draft, Morrow was the 5th pick (Kennedy was 21st).  It seems as though the Blue Jays did a tonne of scouting in 2006, because they’ve nabbed Morrow and Drabek to go along with Travis Snider.  The Jays want to keep Morrow in the rotation, but the BB-Rate is going to kill him.  If he could ever get his BB/9 under 4.00, we might have a useful deep-leaguer because he still shows flashes of brilliance.  He was hitting 98-99mph with ease in his opening start.

Homer Bailey: I hate Dusty Baker.  I think a 7.5K/9 and a 3.5BB/9 are good possibilities.  I’ll bank on a 4.05 ERA and maybe, possibly, a 1.40 WHIP

and done.

Taking Care of Business: The Closer Report

I need a catchy title for a bi-weekly column, preferably based on a Canadian Hit Record.  Currently, BTO’s the front runner, but that may change.

It’s the 6th Inning of the Jays and Tigers, and Brandon Inge has just hit another home-run.  That Catcher eligibility is going to mean a lot if you’re in anything but the shallowest of leagues.  Two catcher leagues, or anything over 12 teams, and Inge has value.

Closer Report:

Toronto Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan of the Blue Jays hasn’t looked right in a while. When Ryan’s on, it doesn’t matter that he’s a lefty closer with less than ideal splits.  Unfortunately, the same qualities that make him a great closer, also make him a huge injury risk.  The torque placed on his elbow and rotator cuff creates ridiculous spin on his slider, but also creates the dreaded “inverted-L”

Scott Downs, another lefty, is next in line for save opportunities.  Downs is owned in 6.1 percent of ESPN leagues, which is up 2.1 percent.

Detroit Tigers

Well, this situation should be a blast to follow. After years of being the closer of the future, Fernando Rodney’s got the gig, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll hold onto the job with a walk rate approaching 5 batters per 9.

Brandon Lyon appears to be next in line, and he’s remarkably average which isn’t the high upside you’d like to see from a speculative closer.

Youngster Ryan Perry is where the action is at:  Perry was drafted in 2008 as the 21st overall pick and made the club along with fellow youngster Rick Porcello. Perry’s an interesting case, as he didn’t seem to catch fire until his Junior season with Arizona.  Perry has all sorts of K potential, and if he can continue to impress, he may be the Tigers best option at closer.

Baltimore Orioles

George Sherrill is another lefty closer with a lot of issues. Prior to the All Star break last year, Sherrill was on fire. Sherrill came tumbling back down to earth after the break, and posted a 4.73 ERA on the year.  Sherrill registered a  BB/9 on the wrong side of 5 in 2008, and he’s only projected to improve on it marginally in 2009. The projections range from Marcel’s 4.18 BB / 9 to ZiPS 4.69 BB / 9.

In steps Chris Ray, a proven closer, who missed all of 2008 due to injury that required Tommy John. In 2006, Ray converted 33 of 38 save opportunities. Ray exhibits slightly better control and strike-out ability than Sherrill, but whether or not he’s healthy is up for debate. If Ray’s fastball isn’t sitting around 95mph, you should take a wait-and-see approach. Ray’s combination of Fastball, Slider, Change, and Splitter is ideal for the closers spot. After allowing 2 ER versus the Yanks, Ray’s ownership is down 9 percent, to 42 percent in ESPN.

Washington Nationals

Joel Hanrahan seems to have the gig, and probably has about three or four blown saves worth of leeway after saving 9 games last year for the Nats. Hanrahan added almost 4 miles per hour to all of his pitches last year, and I’d definitely be checking his pfx data in the coming days (you can do this using gameday, or scooting over to fangraphs.com).

Steven Shell is next in line after posting a 2.16 ERA in 50 IP last year. Much of Shell’s success came down to luck, but he has the stuff to vault Rivera and the other Nats RP. Shell’s currently owned in .3% of ESPN leagues.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks closer role should keep you busy. It’s one of the few cloudy situations that could actually result in steady saves, if you guess right.  The closers role is currently occupied by 30-year old Chad Qualls, but Tony Pena and Joe Rauch are waiting in the wings. Qualls is currently owned in all but the shallowest fantasy leagues (94% ESPN Ownership)

Qualls has wonderful ratios, and a 8+ K per 9 rate, and 2ish BB per 9, makes for solid closer potential.  Qualls has great splits for a closer, and held both lefties and righties under a .230 batting average.

If Qualls fails, Rauch registered 17 saves with the Nats last year but looked terrible in his brief stint with the D-Backs (6.56 ERA).  The real value comes from Tony Pena, who has all the tools to succeed, but possibly lacks the make-up. Pena brings it at 95mph, and should register a 2.5-3 strike outs per walk. Pena’s currently owned in 2.7 percent of ESPN leagues.

The interesting part of this situation comes down to pitching philosophy.  Qualls, with his ground ball tendencies, is better suited for high leverage situations and Pena with his over-powering fastball, is much better suited for the 9th inning.

At this point however, the closer job is Qualls’ to lose.  With the amount of talent the Diamondbacks have in the pen, this situation could quickly become a closer by committee with no one getting more than 12 saves.

Atlanta Braves

Just a quickie here:  Gonzalez has a good amount of experience closing, but Soriano has a very live arm.  The job is Gonzalez’s until he loses it, but with Soriano’s K-Potential he’s definitely worth a look.  Even if he doesn’t have a closers job, he’s one of few relievers that can contribute to your ERA, WHIP, and K’s while you’re waiting for him to win the gig.  Everything depends on his health, though:  Soriano’s owned in 3.6% of ESPN leagues, and you probably want to key on his BB Rate.  If he’s on, we’re talking 2 or under per 9.  If he’s off…it could balloon well above 4 or 5 walked batters per 9.

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gregg vs. Carlos Marmol.  We all know who the better pitcher is, the question is where the Cubs want their best relief pitcher to pitch. Marmol was ranked ahead of Gregg in almost all of the pre-rankings and was drafted as if he were the closer.  Marmol’s got dirty stuff, and he’ll continue to be among the percent ownership leaders for non-closing relief pitchers. Marmol’s currently sitting at 85 percent ownership, which is only 11 percent less than Kevin Gregg’s 96 percent.

Colorado Rockies

Huston Street and Manny Corpas both have closer experience, and neither one’s a sure thing.  Street had an epic melt-down last year, which lead to his departure from Oakland. Corpas doesn’t quite have the K-potential that Street does, but he does have a Coors friendly ground-ball rate nearing 50% compared to Street’s 40%.

You’ll want to keep an eye on Street’s BB-Rate, as he posted a career high 3.47 BB / 9 in 2008.

With Street’s ownership at 91 percent, and Corpas sitting at 46%, the best value may come from Taylor Bucholz who’s owned in under 1 percent of leagues.  After Bucholz’s career year in 2008, he’s one guy to keep an eye on.

Florida Marlins

Currently Matt Lindstrom (91% Owned) has the closers job, and should have at least a few blown saves in the reservoir before he gets the hook.  Florida’s bullpen is filled with a lot of young, live, arms.

Leo Nunez is one of my “he’s definitely on the roids” guys, as he’s a wiry reliever that magically added 4mph to his fastball, and consistently posts inconsistent statistics.  His K rate has ranged from 4 to 8 batters per 9. ESPN owners are prospecting pretty hard-core on Nunez, as his ownership is at almost 6 percent.

Renyel Pinto (.1%) is a lefty option that tops out at 90mph, but has solid K potential.  Unfortunately, with the K’s come an abundance of walks.

Logan Kensing (.1%) appears to fit the closers role the best, as he’ll hit 95mph on the gun with great K potential.  Like Pinto, Kensing has some serious control issues but a breakthrough could definitely be in the cards.

Oakland Athletics

I talked about Brad Ziegler and the Oakland bullpen here.

St. Louis Cardinals

Simple explanation here, and great prospecting.  Jason Motte ( 87%) has the job until he loses it, and it’ll take more than a couple blown saves for LaRussa to strip the job from Motte.  It’s going to take a lack of control. Motte has shown, and the projection models agree, that he can keep his BB Rate around 3.  With the strike-out ability he possesses, that’s a rosterable control deficiency.

If Motte falters, Ryan Franklin (2.4%) will fill in and probably get himself 5-8 SV until Chris Perez gets his shot. Perez’s ownership declined 9 percent upon his demotion to the minors, and he now sits at 8% ownership.

Seattle Mariners

I didn’t agree with Brandon Morrow’s shift to the rotation, and thankfully it hasn’t happened yet.  Morrow has all the stuff in the world to be a top-rate closer, but whether or not he’ll succeed is up in the air.

Morrow has some serious control issues, and looked AWFUL last night. Morrow walked 3 batters in 2/3rds of an inning, and nothing will get a closer pulled faster than a lack of control.  Managers can stomach walk off home runs, but they tend to have issues with walking the bases full.

Next in line is Mark Lowe, who’s owned in under 1 percent of ESPN leagues. Lowe can bring the fastball almost as hard as Morrow, and his ratios are average enough to warrant consideration.  At Lowe’s ownership, he’s definitely one of the better values.

Chad Cordero who’s currently in the Minors rehabbing is the wild card.  Cordero came into the league as one of the better pitching prospects, and didn’t disappoint.  He’s coming off injury, but if he gets the call — he’ll be ready to go.  The Mariners won’t bring him up if he’s not completely healthy, and Cordero’s time table is looking more and more advanced.

Tampa Bay Rays

Take a look at how last year unfolded, add in Isringhausen, and you’re set.  Wheeler should continue to be a decent source of cheap-as-hell saves, while contributing stellar ERA & WHIP numbers. Wheeler’s already owned in 44 percent of leagues, though.

If you’re just in it for Saves, I guess that Percival is your best bet. Isringhausen’s only owned in 1.5 percent of leagues, and he’s currently on the DL, so if you have a  DL-spot — he’ll probably provide the best bang for your buck; 6 or 7 saves seems reasonable.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Broxton obviously has this job, but Hong-Chih Kuo provides an intriguing buy.  Kuo’s only owned in 9.2% of leagues, and he shouldn’t hurt you while you’re waiting on Broxton to fail.

There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty around Broxton considering he’s essentially a tailor-made closer.

Milwaukee Brewers

I can’t picture Hoffman as a set-up man, and Villeneuva is too valuable to just pitch 1 inning.  Even if Charlie V succeeds, I have trouble believing he’ll stick at the closer spot.

Hoffman’s probably going to fall off the edge at some point this year — I’m unsure at this point if that cliff is a performance or injury barrier; quite possibly it’ll be a combination of both.

In the end, prospecting for closers is something that’s a necessity in a deep league but somewhat goofy in shallow leagues.  If you’re in a head to head league, it makes sense to prospect so long as you can make the playoffs. In roto-leagues, or points-leagues; the risk associated with prospecting for closers often times outweighs the rewards.

ESPN offers their take on the CLOSER DEPTH CHART.

Hanrahan Photo Courtesy of Scott Ablemann

Soriano & Lowe Photo Courtesy of Mark Sobba

Broxton by Photography By Rueben

Diva on a Dime is a downright awful show, that I believe is truly 100% Canadian Goodness. If left unchecked, Canadian televisions stations would just play American TV shows all day, every day — this is how we end up with CANCON, which forces Canadians to sit through hours of awful television.

Anyways, it’s time to create a fantasy baseball roster without using a single player drafted in the top-200 picks according to ESPN’s Average Live Draft Position.  Obviously, with fun little gimmicks like this, we’re going to be going high-risk/high-reward.

Diva On A Dime Hitters (ADP>200)

C: Kelly Shoppach – Pick 211: Shoppach had 21 homers in 352 AB. A lot of people are going to shy away from him because he doesn’t have a spot to play. A healthy Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko really clog up his options.  Lucky for you, good hitters find spots in the line-up.

If you think all three of the aforementioned players stay healthy, then maybe go with Ramon Hernandez (Pick 202) or Jeff Clement (Pick 245).  I’d also take a risk on Saltalamacchia who doesn’t even register with ESPN at this point.

1B: Big Ole Billy Butler – Pick 242: At this point in the draft it makes sense to go with a lighter hitting first baseman with a solid batting average, rather than a masher like Mike Jacobs / Adam LaRoche. Butler’s competition comes from Loney (ADP: 166), Kotchman (ADP: 237) and a few over-the-hill sluggers (Helton, Giambi, Konerko).

Butler however brings the best value, and best power potential of the doubles-machines.  Loney has the better line-up, and batting directly after Manny will allow him ample opportunity to drive in runs, but Butler has a shot at 22-25HR.  Toss in his .300+ average, and an improved Royal’s squad and we have our first baseman.

Bill James’ Projection Model has Butler at: 73 R/ 18HR / 87 RBI / .295 BA with 15 SB — just kidding, but Zips and Marcel have Butler stealing 2 bases in 3 attempts.

2B: Felipe Lopez – Pick 216: I’m all over Lopez like white on rice. 2005 was a 23HR season, and 2006 brought us 44SB.  Lopez is still only 28 years old (turns 29 in May) but it seems like he’s been around forever.

With Lopez on a good team, and apparently wanting to play again — I expect big things.

SS: Khalil Greene – Pick 224: Greene has been smashing the hell out of spring-training pitching to the tune of a .400 average and .560 SLG percentage.  I’ve been high on Greene all winter, and this doesn’t change my mind.  I wouldn’t rate him terribly higher based on these spring training stats because he’s still Khalil Greene, which you can clearly see by comparing his .400 AVG to his .429 OBP.

MI: Orlando Cabrera – Pick 204: I was tempted to go with Elvis Andrus (ADP 228) here, because we’re going to need some serious steals — but we’ve already got Greene killing our BA.

I like Cabrera in the new and improved Oakland line-up, and expecting 20SB to go along with a solid .280 BA, and at least decent Run totals should fill the hole.

The potential for Andrus and his 50SB is tantalizing.

3B: Edwin Encarnacion – Pick 198: Hey, up until a couple days ago he was ranked right at 200th overall.  Every thing’s in-line for a break-out season. I did a write-up on Edwin a couple days ago, it’ll do all the ‘splainin’

CI: Mark Reynods – Pick 202: We need 30 HR from this spot, so this comes down to a brutal battle between Reynolds and Jason Giambi. I’d like to take a chance of Kendry Morales, who doesn’t even register on ESPN — but I’ll save him for later.

The battle between Reynolds and Giambi comes down to BA, and strangely enough Reynolds wins. All of the projection models believe his 2008 average of .239 was a mistake, and he should rebound to anywhere from .249 to .269.  I can live with that, so long as the HR, R, RBI are there.

We also just nabbed ourselves 10 more SB.

OF: Nelson Cruz – Pick 202: Bill James has him coming in at 31HR, 81R, 92RBI with a .280 average.  While i’m not completely sold, and I still somewhat see Cruz as a quad-A player — Cant turn him away at pick 202.

OF: Elijah Dukes – Pick 226: Oh Me, Oh My.  Dukes has all the talent in the world, and could easily go 25HR/25SB but he could also hit 3 HR and steal .75 Bases.  This is the high-risk/high-reward thing I was talking about.

OF: Chris Dickerson – Pick, I dont Know: Let’s drop the bomb and select another potential 25/25 guy with a whole lot of risk.  BJ Robot has him at 37 Steals and 21 HR! I’ll take that.  His skill set is nice, and Reds fan’s will appreciate him.

UTIL: Shin-Soo Choo – Pick 204: Might as well throw in another solid Power / Speed combo guy with a solid average.  At this point, the outfield and util spots have really saved this team.  Choo’s on many folks lists to break out in 2009, and I can’t blame ‘em.

…now onto pitching

SP1: Brandon Morrow – Pick 217: I thought with the hype Morrow was getting he’d be way above this point.  Take Morrow and Run.  He’s got a great K-rate, and while he’s a bit wild, don’t worry be happy.

SP2: Chris Young – Pick 219: Chris Young has bad luck, but isn’t a huge injury concern unless you think he’s been psychologically broken by that Pujols line-drive to the face. With Young you’re getting the potential for a Golden-WHIP (1.13 in 2006, and 1.10 in 2007) and at least 8K per 9.

SP3: Ubaldo Jiminez – Pick 227: You’ll notice we’re loading up on high-strikeout pitchers.  With the lack of saves available to us at this point, we’re probably going to have to punt the category and thus draft some very solid late-inning relievers.  They’ll be bringing low-era, low-whip to offset our massive control issues.

Jiminez is posed for a break-out year, even if half his games are pitched at Coors.

RP1: Jason Motte – Pick 210: Motte’s value will keep rising with the news that he’s won the closer role over Chris Perez, in St. Louis. We’ve got a shot at some saves here, so we might as well take it.

RP2: Jose Arredondo – Pick 233: There’s still a couple closers, but that’s no fun.  If you’re into Huston Street or George Sherrill, the choice is yours. At this point though, Arredondo brings a lot of goodies, like a solid era and a very good K-rate.

Expecting a return to 10-win-land is ridiculous, but pitching in late relief for the Angels will provide him with plenty of chances to nab those random-wins or even saves.  He should be one of the first non-closers off the board.

P: John Maine – Pick 226: Maine regressed in every possible category last year.  If he levels out, you should expect a sub-4.00 ERA, 180K, and round about 1.30ish WHIP.  This is pretty solid for a player who’s upside could easily eclipse these numbers.

P: Manny Parra – Pick 234: I’m banking on Parra improving in 2009, along with him pitching a full-season. Parra’s a solid lefty that should be able to put up 8ish K per 9. The K:BB ratio is only going to be around 1.5, which’ll limit your WHIP to around 1.40ish with a good amount of upside.  Parra won’t repeat the 1.54 disaster  that he called his 2008 WHIP, again.

P: Jared Weaver – Pick 216: Weaver was once a top-prospect that all the fantasy folk were drooling over.  Now, he seems to be an afterthought.  The man’s got terrible hair, but all the potential in the world.  His nearly 8 K per 9, combined with a very solid 2.81 strikesouts per walk, makes for a steal at this pick.

P: Hong Chih-Kuo – Pick 244: I figured I’d toss another reliever in here that’ll put up some solid rate stats.  We’ve got all these high-strikeout, high-walk rate starters that we need to offset. Kuo struck out 96 to only 21 walks in 2008, and in doing so posted a beautiful 4.57 K:BB ratio.

You can use this as a list of sleepers, or just something to kill time but each of these players are available after pick 200 and each could contribute to your team in even the shallowest of standard-leagues.

The hype-machine has decided to travel back in time and examine the 2006 draft, searching for a terrific pitcher.

Is it 11th  overall selection Max Scherzer? Nope.

Is it 10th overall selection Tim Lincecum? Nope. Keep Going!

Is it Clayton Kershaw, drafted 7th overall? Nope. Further, my friend. Further and Higher.

What about Andrew Miller, Drafted 6th overall? Nope, higher still.

Oh, You must be searching for the 5th overall draft pick. The flame thrower from UC Berkeley, Brandon Morrow.  Yup, that’s it.

Morrow’s name has been plastered all over “Sleepers  for 2009″ sections, in all of the major magazines and websites. I’m guessing this has something to do with his 95.5 MPH fastball

Let’s take a little bit of a look at this flame thrower, and his limited relief statistics so far:

What Jumps out? Well, his K to BB ratio is not even 2.  This is a problem.

A quick look for pitchers that have a K:BB ratio of 2 and lower, reveals:

1. Jair Jurrgens posted a (1.99 K:BB)
2. Ubaldo Jiminez ( 1.67 K:BB)
3. Mike Pelfrey (1.72 K:BB)
4. Dice-K (1.64)
5. Dana Eveland (1.53)
6. Manny Parra (1.96)
7. Carlos Zambrano (1.81)
8. Ian Snell (1.52)
9. Oliver Perez (1.71)

You get the point.  It’s going to be tough for Morrow to be anywhere near as dominant as experts project unless he can drastically lower his walk rate. His 10.44 strike outs per nine is nice to look at, but as long as its accompanied by a 4.73 BB / 9 rate — he’s in trouble.

Morrow’s ERA Prior to becoming a starter 1.47 ERA over 36.2 IP

Morrow’s ERA  After becoming a starter in September, where he pitched 5 games, 3.34 ERA over 64.2 IP.

This is quite the jump.

Lets look at the projection systems: Bill James has him posting 10.04K:9, and a 5.70 BB:9. CHONE has him at 10.5 K per 9, and 5.05 BB per 9.

Bill James’ maths translate these numbers into 140 Innings Pitched, an 8-8 record, and a 3.84 ERA to go along with a 1.43 WHIP. This is not pretty.

Obviously, with the switch to the Starting Pitcher Role, you’d expect Morrow’s WHIP to rise from his 1.20 in 2007, and 1.14 in 2008.  How far you think it’ll go up, is really up to interpretation.

Morrow’s spent a season working with Pitching God, Mel Stottlemyre.  If there’s anything that’ll change a flame-throwing kid for the positive, it’s Mel.

Now, with that said.  There’s a few questions you should ask yourself before drafting Brandon Morrow.

1. Do you think he’ll pitch the entire year? 140 IP seems reasonable, 200 Seems possible.
2. If he does pitch the entire year, what are the odds he fatigues and sucks it up around the end of the season.  If you have an active league where you can trade Brandon Morrow after the All-Star break — then there’s a good amount of value here.  If you’re in a league where no one trades because everyone always needs to get the best of the trade — buyer beware.
3. Will he add a pitch? Right now Morrow is sitting on a blistering fastball, a good slider, and a splitter that tends to mimmick the slider pretty closely.  He has nothing that’ll tail from lefties.  If Morrow can get his change working, or pick up a decent curve he’ll be set.  Right Now, I tend to think he’s better served in a late rotation or bullpen role.

All and All, just keep an eye on Morrow.  If he’s looking good, and reports are good  — then he’s worth the risk with a K:9 above 10.

The Verdict: The Machine likes flame-throwers but it can find plenty of them floating around. Don’t overpay for Morrow based on the appearance of a pitcher with a sub-1.20 WHIP.  Understand you’re getting a High-K, High-BB guy with the potential of experiencing dead arm syndrome.  You’re getting more Ubaldo Jiminez (not a bad thing) than Joba Chamberlain.

Photo Courtesy of MarkSobba Flickr