Brandon Morrow

Taking Care of Business – A Closer Report

Taking Care of Business: The Closer Report

I need a catchy title for a bi-weekly column, preferably based on a Canadian Hit Record.  Currently, BTO’s the front runner, but that may change.

It’s the 6th Inning of the Jays and Tigers, and Brandon Inge has just hit another home-run.  That Catcher eligibility is going to mean a lot if you’re in anything but the shallowest of leagues.  Two catcher leagues, or anything over 12 teams, and Inge has value.

Closer Report:

Toronto Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan of the Blue Jays hasn’t looked right in a while. When Ryan’s on, it doesn’t matter that he’s a lefty closer with less than ideal splits.  Unfortunately, the same qualities that make him a great closer, also make him a huge injury risk.  The torque placed on his elbow and rotator cuff creates ridiculous spin on his slider, but also creates the dreaded “inverted-L”

Scott Downs, another lefty, is next in line for save opportunities.  Downs is owned in 6.1 percent of ESPN leagues, which is up 2.1 percent.

Detroit Tigers

Well, this situation should be a blast to follow. After years of being the closer of the future, Fernando Rodney’s got the gig, but there’s no reason to believe he’ll hold onto the job with a walk rate approaching 5 batters per 9.

Brandon Lyon appears to be next in line, and he’s remarkably average which isn’t the high upside you’d like to see from a speculative closer.

Youngster Ryan Perry is where the action is at:  Perry was drafted in 2008 as the 21st overall pick and made the club along with fellow youngster Rick Porcello. Perry’s an interesting case, as he didn’t seem to catch fire until his Junior season with Arizona.  Perry has all sorts of K potential, and if he can continue to impress, he may be the Tigers best option at closer.

Baltimore Orioles

George Sherrill is another lefty closer with a lot of issues. Prior to the All Star break last year, Sherrill was on fire. Sherrill came tumbling back down to earth after the break, and posted a 4.73 ERA on the year.  Sherrill registered a  BB/9 on the wrong side of 5 in 2008, and he’s only projected to improve on it marginally in 2009. The projections range from Marcel’s 4.18 BB / 9 to ZiPS 4.69 BB / 9.

In steps Chris Ray, a proven closer, who missed all of 2008 due to injury that required Tommy John. In 2006, Ray converted 33 of 38 save opportunities. Ray exhibits slightly better control and strike-out ability than Sherrill, but whether or not he’s healthy is up for debate. If Ray’s fastball isn’t sitting around 95mph, you should take a wait-and-see approach. Ray’s combination of Fastball, Slider, Change, and Splitter is ideal for the closers spot. After allowing 2 ER versus the Yanks, Ray’s ownership is down 9 percent, to 42 percent in ESPN.

Washington Nationals

Joel Hanrahan seems to have the gig, and probably has about three or four blown saves worth of leeway after saving 9 games last year for the Nats. Hanrahan added almost 4 miles per hour to all of his pitches last year, and I’d definitely be checking his pfx data in the coming days (you can do this using gameday, or scooting over to fangraphs.com).

Steven Shell is next in line after posting a 2.16 ERA in 50 IP last year. Much of Shell’s success came down to luck, but he has the stuff to vault Rivera and the other Nats RP. Shell’s currently owned in .3% of ESPN leagues.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks closer role should keep you busy. It’s one of the few cloudy situations that could actually result in steady saves, if you guess right.  The closers role is currently occupied by 30-year old Chad Qualls, but Tony Pena and Joe Rauch are waiting in the wings. Qualls is currently owned in all but the shallowest fantasy leagues (94% ESPN Ownership)

Qualls has wonderful ratios, and a 8+ K per 9 rate, and 2ish BB per 9, makes for solid closer potential.  Qualls has great splits for a closer, and held both lefties and righties under a .230 batting average.

If Qualls fails, Rauch registered 17 saves with the Nats last year but looked terrible in his brief stint with the D-Backs (6.56 ERA).  The real value comes from Tony Pena, who has all the tools to succeed, but possibly lacks the make-up. Pena brings it at 95mph, and should register a 2.5-3 strike outs per walk. Pena’s currently owned in 2.7 percent of ESPN leagues.

The interesting part of this situation comes down to pitching philosophy.  Qualls, with his ground ball tendencies, is better suited for high leverage situations and Pena with his over-powering fastball, is much better suited for the 9th inning.

At this point however, the closer job is Qualls’ to lose.  With the amount of talent the Diamondbacks have in the pen, this situation could quickly become a closer by committee with no one getting more than 12 saves.

Atlanta Braves

Just a quickie here:  Gonzalez has a good amount of experience closing, but Soriano has a very live arm.  The job is Gonzalez’s until he loses it, but with Soriano’s K-Potential he’s definitely worth a look.  Even if he doesn’t have a closers job, he’s one of few relievers that can contribute to your ERA, WHIP, and K’s while you’re waiting for him to win the gig.  Everything depends on his health, though:  Soriano’s owned in 3.6% of ESPN leagues, and you probably want to key on his BB Rate.  If he’s on, we’re talking 2 or under per 9.  If he’s off…it could balloon well above 4 or 5 walked batters per 9.

Chicago Cubs

Kevin Gregg vs. Carlos Marmol.  We all know who the better pitcher is, the question is where the Cubs want their best relief pitcher to pitch. Marmol was ranked ahead of Gregg in almost all of the pre-rankings and was drafted as if he were the closer.  Marmol’s got dirty stuff, and he’ll continue to be among the percent ownership leaders for non-closing relief pitchers. Marmol’s currently sitting at 85 percent ownership, which is only 11 percent less than Kevin Gregg’s 96 percent.

Colorado Rockies

Huston Street and Manny Corpas both have closer experience, and neither one’s a sure thing.  Street had an epic melt-down last year, which lead to his departure from Oakland. Corpas doesn’t quite have the K-potential that Street does, but he does have a Coors friendly ground-ball rate nearing 50% compared to Street’s 40%.

You’ll want to keep an eye on Street’s BB-Rate, as he posted a career high 3.47 BB / 9 in 2008.

With Street’s ownership at 91 percent, and Corpas sitting at 46%, the best value may come from Taylor Bucholz who’s owned in under 1 percent of leagues.  After Bucholz’s career year in 2008, he’s one guy to keep an eye on.

Florida Marlins

Currently Matt Lindstrom (91% Owned) has the closers job, and should have at least a few blown saves in the reservoir before he gets the hook.  Florida’s bullpen is filled with a lot of young, live, arms.

Leo Nunez is one of my “he’s definitely on the roids” guys, as he’s a wiry reliever that magically added 4mph to his fastball, and consistently posts inconsistent statistics.  His K rate has ranged from 4 to 8 batters per 9. ESPN owners are prospecting pretty hard-core on Nunez, as his ownership is at almost 6 percent.

Renyel Pinto (.1%) is a lefty option that tops out at 90mph, but has solid K potential.  Unfortunately, with the K’s come an abundance of walks.

Logan Kensing (.1%) appears to fit the closers role the best, as he’ll hit 95mph on the gun with great K potential.  Like Pinto, Kensing has some serious control issues but a breakthrough could definitely be in the cards.

Oakland Athletics

I talked about Brad Ziegler and the Oakland bullpen here.

St. Louis Cardinals

Simple explanation here, and great prospecting.  Jason Motte ( 87%) has the job until he loses it, and it’ll take more than a couple blown saves for LaRussa to strip the job from Motte.  It’s going to take a lack of control. Motte has shown, and the projection models agree, that he can keep his BB Rate around 3.  With the strike-out ability he possesses, that’s a rosterable control deficiency.

If Motte falters, Ryan Franklin (2.4%) will fill in and probably get himself 5-8 SV until Chris Perez gets his shot. Perez’s ownership declined 9 percent upon his demotion to the minors, and he now sits at 8% ownership.

Seattle Mariners

I didn’t agree with Brandon Morrow’s shift to the rotation, and thankfully it hasn’t happened yet.  Morrow has all the stuff in the world to be a top-rate closer, but whether or not he’ll succeed is up in the air.

Morrow has some serious control issues, and looked AWFUL last night. Morrow walked 3 batters in 2/3rds of an inning, and nothing will get a closer pulled faster than a lack of control.  Managers can stomach walk off home runs, but they tend to have issues with walking the bases full.

Next in line is Mark Lowe, who’s owned in under 1 percent of ESPN leagues. Lowe can bring the fastball almost as hard as Morrow, and his ratios are average enough to warrant consideration.  At Lowe’s ownership, he’s definitely one of the better values.

Chad Cordero who’s currently in the Minors rehabbing is the wild card.  Cordero came into the league as one of the better pitching prospects, and didn’t disappoint.  He’s coming off injury, but if he gets the call — he’ll be ready to go.  The Mariners won’t bring him up if he’s not completely healthy, and Cordero’s time table is looking more and more advanced.

Tampa Bay Rays

Take a look at how last year unfolded, add in Isringhausen, and you’re set.  Wheeler should continue to be a decent source of cheap-as-hell saves, while contributing stellar ERA & WHIP numbers. Wheeler’s already owned in 44 percent of leagues, though.

If you’re just in it for Saves, I guess that Percival is your best bet. Isringhausen’s only owned in 1.5 percent of leagues, and he’s currently on the DL, so if you have a  DL-spot — he’ll probably provide the best bang for your buck; 6 or 7 saves seems reasonable.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Broxton obviously has this job, but Hong-Chih Kuo provides an intriguing buy.  Kuo’s only owned in 9.2% of leagues, and he shouldn’t hurt you while you’re waiting on Broxton to fail.

There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty around Broxton considering he’s essentially a tailor-made closer.

Milwaukee Brewers

I can’t picture Hoffman as a set-up man, and Villeneuva is too valuable to just pitch 1 inning.  Even if Charlie V succeeds, I have trouble believing he’ll stick at the closer spot.

Hoffman’s probably going to fall off the edge at some point this year — I’m unsure at this point if that cliff is a performance or injury barrier; quite possibly it’ll be a combination of both.

In the end, prospecting for closers is something that’s a necessity in a deep league but somewhat goofy in shallow leagues.  If you’re in a head to head league, it makes sense to prospect so long as you can make the playoffs. In roto-leagues, or points-leagues; the risk associated with prospecting for closers often times outweighs the rewards.

ESPN offers their take on the CLOSER DEPTH CHART.

Hanrahan Photo Courtesy of Scott Ablemann

Soriano & Lowe Photo Courtesy of Mark Sobba

Broxton by Photography By Rueben

Brandon Morrow

Diva On A Dime: Fantasy Baseball Edition

Diva on a Dime is a downright awful show, that I believe is truly 100% Canadian Goodness. If left unchecked, Canadian televisions stations would just play American TV shows all day, every day — this is how we end up with CANCON, which forces Canadians to sit through hours of awful television.

Anyways, it’s time to create a fantasy baseball roster without using a single player drafted in the top-200 picks according to ESPN’s Average Live Draft Position.  Obviously, with fun little gimmicks like this, we’re going to be going high-risk/high-reward.

Diva On A Dime Hitters (ADP>200)

C: Kelly Shoppach – Pick 211: Shoppach had 21 homers in 352 AB. A lot of people are going to shy away from him because he doesn’t have a spot to play. A healthy Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko really clog up his options.  Lucky for you, good hitters find spots in the line-up.

If you think all three of the aforementioned players stay healthy, then maybe go with Ramon Hernandez (Pick 202) or Jeff Clement (Pick 245).  I’d also take a risk on Saltalamacchia who doesn’t even register with ESPN at this point.

1B: Big Ole Billy Butler – Pick 242: At this point in the draft it makes sense to go with a lighter hitting first baseman with a solid batting average, rather than a masher like Mike Jacobs / Adam LaRoche. Butler’s competition comes from Loney (ADP: 166), Kotchman (ADP: 237) and a few over-the-hill sluggers (Helton, Giambi, Konerko).

Butler however brings the best value, and best power potential of the doubles-machines.  Loney has the better line-up, and batting directly after Manny will allow him ample opportunity to drive in runs, but Butler has a shot at 22-25HR.  Toss in his .300+ average, and an improved Royal’s squad and we have our first baseman.

Bill James’ Projection Model has Butler at: 73 R/ 18HR / 87 RBI / .295 BA with 15 SB — just kidding, but Zips and Marcel have Butler stealing 2 bases in 3 attempts.

2B: Felipe Lopez – Pick 216: I’m all over Lopez like white on rice. 2005 was a 23HR season, and 2006 brought us 44SB.  Lopez is still only 28 years old (turns 29 in May) but it seems like he’s been around forever.

With Lopez on a good team, and apparently wanting to play again — I expect big things.

SS: Khalil Greene – Pick 224: Greene has been smashing the hell out of spring-training pitching to the tune of a .400 average and .560 SLG percentage.  I’ve been high on Greene all winter, and this doesn’t change my mind.  I wouldn’t rate him terribly higher based on these spring training stats because he’s still Khalil Greene, which you can clearly see by comparing his .400 AVG to his .429 OBP.

MI: Orlando Cabrera – Pick 204: I was tempted to go with Elvis Andrus (ADP 228) here, because we’re going to need some serious steals — but we’ve already got Greene killing our BA.

I like Cabrera in the new and improved Oakland line-up, and expecting 20SB to go along with a solid .280 BA, and at least decent Run totals should fill the hole.

The potential for Andrus and his 50SB is tantalizing.

3B: Edwin Encarnacion – Pick 198: Hey, up until a couple days ago he was ranked right at 200th overall.  Every thing’s in-line for a break-out season. I did a write-up on Edwin a couple days ago, it’ll do all the ’splainin’

CI: Mark Reynods – Pick 202: We need 30 HR from this spot, so this comes down to a brutal battle between Reynolds and Jason Giambi. I’d like to take a chance of Kendry Morales, who doesn’t even register on ESPN — but I’ll save him for later.

The battle between Reynolds and Giambi comes down to BA, and strangely enough Reynolds wins. All of the projection models believe his 2008 average of .239 was a mistake, and he should rebound to anywhere from .249 to .269.  I can live with that, so long as the HR, R, RBI are there.

We also just nabbed ourselves 10 more SB.

OF: Nelson Cruz – Pick 202: Bill James has him coming in at 31HR, 81R, 92RBI with a .280 average.  While i’m not completely sold, and I still somewhat see Cruz as a quad-A player — Cant turn him away at pick 202.

OF: Elijah Dukes – Pick 226: Oh Me, Oh My.  Dukes has all the talent in the world, and could easily go 25HR/25SB but he could also hit 3 HR and steal .75 Bases.  This is the high-risk/high-reward thing I was talking about.

OF: Chris Dickerson – Pick, I dont Know: Let’s drop the bomb and select another potential 25/25 guy with a whole lot of risk.  BJ Robot has him at 37 Steals and 21 HR! I’ll take that.  His skill set is nice, and Reds fan’s will appreciate him.

UTIL: Shin-Soo Choo – Pick 204: Might as well throw in another solid Power / Speed combo guy with a solid average.  At this point, the outfield and util spots have really saved this team.  Choo’s on many folks lists to break out in 2009, and I can’t blame ‘em.

…now onto pitching

SP1: Brandon Morrow – Pick 217: I thought with the hype Morrow was getting he’d be way above this point.  Take Morrow and Run.  He’s got a great K-rate, and while he’s a bit wild, don’t worry be happy.

SP2: Chris Young – Pick 219: Chris Young has bad luck, but isn’t a huge injury concern unless you think he’s been psychologically broken by that Pujols line-drive to the face. With Young you’re getting the potential for a Golden-WHIP (1.13 in 2006, and 1.10 in 2007) and at least 8K per 9.

SP3: Ubaldo Jiminez – Pick 227: You’ll notice we’re loading up on high-strikeout pitchers.  With the lack of saves available to us at this point, we’re probably going to have to punt the category and thus draft some very solid late-inning relievers.  They’ll be bringing low-era, low-whip to offset our massive control issues.

Jiminez is posed for a break-out year, even if half his games are pitched at Coors.

RP1: Jason Motte – Pick 210: Motte’s value will keep rising with the news that he’s won the closer role over Chris Perez, in St. Louis. We’ve got a shot at some saves here, so we might as well take it.

RP2: Jose Arredondo – Pick 233: There’s still a couple closers, but that’s no fun.  If you’re into Huston Street or George Sherrill, the choice is yours. At this point though, Arredondo brings a lot of goodies, like a solid era and a very good K-rate.

Expecting a return to 10-win-land is ridiculous, but pitching in late relief for the Angels will provide him with plenty of chances to nab those random-wins or even saves.  He should be one of the first non-closers off the board.

P: John Maine – Pick 226: Maine regressed in every possible category last year.  If he levels out, you should expect a sub-4.00 ERA, 180K, and round about 1.30ish WHIP.  This is pretty solid for a player who’s upside could easily eclipse these numbers.

P: Manny Parra – Pick 234: I’m banking on Parra improving in 2009, along with him pitching a full-season. Parra’s a solid lefty that should be able to put up 8ish K per 9. The K:BB ratio is only going to be around 1.5, which’ll limit your WHIP to around 1.40ish with a good amount of upside.  Parra won’t repeat the 1.54 disaster  that he called his 2008 WHIP, again.

P: Jared Weaver – Pick 216: Weaver was once a top-prospect that all the fantasy folk were drooling over.  Now, he seems to be an afterthought.  The man’s got terrible hair, but all the potential in the world.  His nearly 8 K per 9, combined with a very solid 2.81 strikesouts per walk, makes for a steal at this pick.

P: Hong Chih-Kuo – Pick 244: I figured I’d toss another reliever in here that’ll put up some solid rate stats.  We’ve got all these high-strikeout, high-walk rate starters that we need to offset. Kuo struck out 96 to only 21 walks in 2008, and in doing so posted a beautiful 4.57 K:BB ratio.

You can use this as a list of sleepers, or just something to kill time but each of these players are available after pick 200 and each could contribute to your team in even the shallowest of standard-leagues.

Brandon Morrow

Brandon Morrow – Starting Pitcher (SP) – Seattle Mariners

The hype-machine has decided to travel back in time and examine the 2006 draft, searching for a terrific pitcher.

Is it 11th  overall selection Max Scherzer? Nope.

Is it 10th overall selection Tim Lincecum? Nope. Keep Going!

Is it Clayton Kershaw, drafted 7th overall? Nope. Further, my friend. Further and Higher.

What about Andrew Miller, Drafted 6th overall? Nope, higher still.

Oh, You must be searching for the 5th overall draft pick. The flame thrower from UC Berkeley, Brandon Morrow.  Yup, that’s it.

Morrow’s name has been plastered all over “Sleepers  for 2009″ sections, in all of the major magazines and websites. I’m guessing this has something to do with his 95.5 MPH fastball

Let’s take a little bit of a look at this flame thrower, and his limited relief statistics so far:

Year	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	SVO	INN	H	R	ER	HR	HBP	BB	SO
2007	SEA	3	4	4.12	60	0	0	0	0	2	63.1	56	29	29	3	1	50	66
2008	SEA	3	4	3.34	45	5	0	0	10	12	64.2	40	26	24	10	0	34	75
Total		6	8	3.73	105	5	0	0	10	14	128.0	96	55	53	13	1	84	141

What Jumps out? Well, his K to BB ratio is not even 2.  This is a problem.

A quick look for pitchers that have a K:BB ratio of 2 and lower, reveals:

1. Jair Jurrgens posted a (1.99 K:BB)
2. Ubaldo Jiminez ( 1.67 K:BB)
3. Mike Pelfrey (1.72 K:BB)
4. Dice-K (1.64)
5. Dana Eveland (1.53)
6. Manny Parra (1.96)
7. Carlos Zambrano (1.81)
8. Ian Snell (1.52)
9. Oliver Perez (1.71)

You get the point.  It’s going to be tough for Morrow to be anywhere near as dominant as experts project unless he can drastically lower his walk rate. His 10.44 strike outs per nine is nice to look at, but as long as its accompanied by a 4.73 BB / 9 rate — he’s in trouble.

Morrow’s ERA Prior to becoming a starter 1.47 ERA over 36.2 IP

Morrow’s ERA  After becoming a starter in September, where he pitched 5 games, 3.34 ERA over 64.2 IP.

This is quite the jump.

Lets look at the projection systems: Bill James has him posting 10.04K:9, and a 5.70 BB:9. CHONE has him at 10.5 K per 9, and 5.05 BB per 9.

Bill James’ maths translate these numbers into 140 Innings Pitched, an 8-8 record, and a 3.84 ERA to go along with a 1.43 WHIP. This is not pretty.

Obviously, with the switch to the Starting Pitcher Role, you’d expect Morrow’s WHIP to rise from his 1.20 in 2007, and 1.14 in 2008.  How far you think it’ll go up, is really up to interpretation.

Morrow’s spent a season working with Pitching God, Mel Stottlemyre.  If there’s anything that’ll change a flame-throwing kid for the positive, it’s Mel.

Now, with that said.  There’s a few questions you should ask yourself before drafting Brandon Morrow.

1. Do you think he’ll pitch the entire year? 140 IP seems reasonable, 200 Seems possible.
2. If he does pitch the entire year, what are the odds he fatigues and sucks it up around the end of the season.  If you have an active league where you can trade Brandon Morrow after the All-Star break — then there’s a good amount of value here.  If you’re in a league where no one trades because everyone always needs to get the best of the trade — buyer beware.
3. Will he add a pitch? Right now Morrow is sitting on a blistering fastball, a good slider, and a splitter that tends to mimmick the slider pretty closely.  He has nothing that’ll tail from lefties.  If Morrow can get his change working, or pick up a decent curve he’ll be set.  Right Now, I tend to think he’s better served in a late rotation or bullpen role.

All and All, just keep an eye on Morrow.  If he’s looking good, and reports are good  — then he’s worth the risk with a K:9 above 10.

The Verdict: The Machine likes flame-throwers but it can find plenty of them floating around. Don’t overpay for Morrow based on the appearance of a pitcher with a sub-1.20 WHIP.  Understand you’re getting a High-K, High-BB guy with the potential of experiencing dead arm syndrome.  You’re getting more Ubaldo Jiminez (not a bad thing) than Joba Chamberlain.

Photo Courtesy of MarkSobba Flickr