Blalock

Fantasy Baseball 1st Base, First Base, Rankings in 2009

The first base position in fantasy baseball 2009 is deep, deep, deep. Due to the depth of the position, a few guys are going to be listed at the position which they can contribute the most, these include: Jorge Cantu, Garrett Atkins, Jeff Baker, Chris Davis, Ronnie Belliard, Rich Aurilia, Hank Blalock, Pablo Sandoval, Chris Duncan, Aubrey Huff.

Jorge Cantu, Garrett Atkins and Chris Davis are all top 20 fantasy first basemen but they’re quite a bit more valuable in other places.  If you already have a star third baseman, there’s no harm in drafting Chris Davis at first, but you’re not getting full value.

And then there is Pablo, Pablo, Pablo Sandoval.  Everyone’s loving him as a super sleeper at third base, as that .847 OPS and almost .500 SLG is the shit fantasy dreams are made of.

Lots of names on this list, and the old forgotten veterans or post-hype sleepers are generally where the value lies.

1. Albert Pujols

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Albert Pujols	524	37	7	100	116	0.357	0.462	0.653	1.93	1.114

Yah, he’s the best. He dominates every category, and that .357 batting average spread over that many at-bats can really help your fantasy squad.  Alot of folk have him as the 1st overall player, but i’d prefer Hanley’s SB over Pujols AVG, and Power.

2. Mark Teixeira

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mark Teixeira	574	33	2	102	121	0.308	0.41	0.552	1.04	0.962

Everyone’s going to have Teixeira too high, including myself and I can’t do anything about it. He’s got a good eye, and great power and if he’s set free, he has 45 homers in him.  It’s always difficult to judge a players psychological fortitude, and how well he’ll adapt to the big apple but I’m sure Tex will be fine.

A return to 2005 seems in order: 112 R, 144 RBI, 43HR, .300 AVG and a handful of steals.

3. Ryan Howard

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Howard	610	48	1	105	146	0.251	0.339	0.543	0.41	0.881

Howard-Smash! Ryan Howard started out 2008 as awful as you can when you have your own commercial.

.251 wont happen again, and he shouldn’t even come close to .251. While his strike out rate is …concerning? He should be fine.  Expecting a .280 season seems to make a good deal of sense.  When you combine that with the guarantee of 40-50 HR, you’ve got yourself a fantasy all-star.

While I’m not sure where he falls overall just yet, I’m putting him here based solely on his insane RBI and HR totals.

Keep an eye on the littlest of the bash brothers, Chase Utley.  Howard’s numbers are always going to be linked with Utley’s, and if Utley misses a good deal of time Howard’s numbers will suffer.

4. Miguel Cabrera

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Miguel Cabrera	616	37	1	85	127	0.292	0.349	0.537	0.44	0.887

Miguel Cabrera started out pretty damn cold last year as well. The Detroit Tigers were a huge dissapointment last year, and somethings gotta change when you spend that much money.

I’m going to chalk Cabrera’s massive regression in the batting average department up to switching leagues.  I have no statistical data at all to back this up, but it seems about right.  Players don’t lose 30 pts off their batting average for no good reason, unless they decide they’re going to aim for the fences on every go.

From Cabrera, It makes sense to expect at least a .320 average, 35 HR, 100 Runs, and 130 RBI.

5. Lance Berkman

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Lance Berkman	554	29	18	114	106	0.312	0.42	0.567	0.92	0.986

I don’t know how the hell Lance Berkman stole 18 bases last year. It’s not like it was quantity over quality, Berkman only got caught 4 times!

Without the stolen bases, Berkman’s value drops a good bit.  I’m banking on about 5-10 steals, and that’s why he’s not the number two overall first baseman.

100 Runs, 30 HR, 120 RBI, 10SB, .300 average seems about right.

6. Prince Fielder

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Prince Fielder	588	34	3	86	102	0.276	0.372	0.507	0.63	0.879

You’d assume the potential energy that Fielder stores in his gut would provide a rather tremendous bounce-back year; and you’d be right!

I’m expecting Prince to fall somewhere between his 2007 and 2008 numbers: Just watch his Line Drive percentage over the first couple months.  He lowered it 6 percent! from 2007 to 2008 and just about everything suffered because of it.

So, Halfway between 2007 and 2008 brings us to: 42 HR, 95 Runs, 110 RBI, .285 average and 2.5 steals / defensive indifferences.

7. Justin Morneau

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Justin Morneau	623	23	0	97	129	0.3	0.374	0.499	0.89	0.873

I wonder how Morneau would do if he got out of Minnesota.  He’s an  MVP contender, just about every year and contributes across the board. While no-one compares to Pujols in the BB / K category, Morneau does a good job of keeping his strike-outs down for a power hitting first baseman.

His power numbers aren’t going to be elite, but he’ll definitely improve on last year’s 23HR.

Expect: 30 HR, 95R, 120RBI, .310 AVG and maybe a stolen base or two.

8. Adrian Gonzalez

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Adrian Gonzalez	616	36	0	103	119	0.279	0.361	0.51	0.52	0.871

Gonzalez is really progressing nicely, and while the Rangers seem like genius’ for grabbing former #1 pick Josh  Hamilton; they seem like fools for letting go of Adrian Gonzalez.  You win some, you lose some — i guess.

36 Home Runs may be asking a bitch much in 2008, but you never know.  I’ll take 30 HR, 100 R, 110 RBI, and a .280 average any day.

9. Kevin Youkilis

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Kevin Youkilis	538	29	3	91	115	0.312	0.39	0.569	0.57	0.958

A lot of folk, myself included, think that Youkilis was a better MVP candidate than his teammate Pedroia.

I really don’t know if Youkilis will keep up those power numbers, but everything else should stay consistent or improve.  Youkilis is even more valuable in leagues that use OBP instead of AVG.

29 Home Runs seems right, but I can’t bring myself to say he’ll top 25. Other than that, his Runs and RBI should add up to about 210, depending on where he’s batted.  His average will remain on the right side of .300, and he’ll continue to ball out.

10. Carlos Delgado

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Delgado	598	38	1	96	115	0.271	0.353	0.518	0.58	0.871

No reason to think that Delgado doesn’t swat 30 HR, 90 R, 110 RBI, while hitting .270.

Oh wait, there is one reason — he’s getting up there in age.  He really doesn’t miss mass amounts of games though, so even if you have to deal with a DL stint or two: Delgado still brings solid value as the 10th ranked first-baseman.

11. Derrek Lee

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Derrek Lee	623	20	8	93	90	0.291	0.361	0.462	0.6	0.823

When Derrek Lee was hitting 40 HR, or stealing 20 bases — he was extremely useful. Like Berkman-type-useful.

Lee isn’t doing that anymore, but the potential is still there to improve in both of those categories. Lee stole eight bases last year, yet he still has the potential to swipe 20.  I bet he easily beats Berkman in a foot-race, and he gets a great jump.

I’m cautiously optimistic with Lee, because if he doesn’t improve you’ve wasted a fairly high draft-pick on him.

His  numbers should be similar to last year 90R, 90RBI, 20-25HR, a nice BA, and about 10 steals but the potential for him to go for 30HR, and 15-20 Steals makes him very intriguing.

12. Joey Votto

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Joey Votto	526	24	7	69	84	0.297	0.368	0.506	0.58	0.874

Votto is Canadian, and I like Canadians.  I was certain that Dusty Baker would ruin Votto, and turn him into a shell of his former-prospect self.

Now, as we all know, rookies either get better or go through a sophomore slump.  Playing in the bandbox that is the Great American Ballpark, should help Votto improve.

Maybe Votto goes out and hits 28HR, 80 R, 100RBI, 10SB, and hits .280.

That’ll make his owners happy enough.

13. Carlos Pena

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Pena	490	31	1	76	102	0.247	0.377	0.494	0.58	0.871

I’m not sure what you’ll get from Carlos Pena this year, but anyone who can knock in 102 R in only 490AB requires a second look.

Pena was once  a Tiger’s prized prospect that never seemed to pan out, and then upon his arrival in Tampa, he brought the awesome.

Carlos Pena probably wont  top 40 HR again, but 30 is reachable along with  100RBI.  Just depends if he plays or not — he can also steal 10 bases, if he’s allowed to run.  Ten SB might be optimistic, so lets go with 30HR, 80 R, 90RBI, .265 AVG, and 6 SB.

14. James Loney

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
James Loney	595	13	7	66	90	0.289	0.338	0.434	0.53	0.772

I love me some James Loney.  I figured he’d break out last year, and I got screwed. If James Loney can follow Derrek Lee’s career path, he should be good.

Until Loney develops power, he’s going  to be average. I figure this is the year that he develops enough power to become a legitimate threat to opposing teams. Every prediction system known to man has Loney hitting 13-14 HR.  I have Loney hitting 22HR

Dont ask why, but it’s Loney time: 22HR, 100RBI, 75R, .290 AVG, 6-10HR.

He’s a super-sleeper! He should out-preform his dollar-value by at least 5 bucks.

15. Conor Jackson

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Conor Jackson	540	12	10	87	75	0.3	0.376	0.446	0.97	0.823

Another light-hitting contact hitter in a position that almost demands 25 HR. Conor Jackson’s eye alone, should keep him relevant in the fantasy community.

The Runs and RBI keep him at least somewhat roster-able as a first baseman, but there’s plenty of other places to get 12HR, and 10SB.

I’m almost as high on Jackson as I am on Loney, so I’ll go with 18HR, and 10SB and the rest of the stats are pretty much set in stone unless he can score himself more than 600 Plate Appearances. In which case, his stats will go up as you’d expect them too.

16. Casey Kotchman

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Casey Kotchman	525	14	2	65	74	0.272	0.328	0.41	0.92	0.738

I’m making a bad habit of putting these light-hitting first-basemen over some guarenteed heavy hitters.

These guys will all grow into their power, and Kotchman should continue to improve upon last years numbers.

Expect 20+ homers on a shiny-brand-new-braves-team.

17. Ryan Garko

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Garko	495	14	0	61	90	0.273	0.346	0.404	0.52	0.75

Everyone was high on Garko last year, and he disappointed just about everyone. Last year was just a mistake, and he’ll improve on the 21 HR he hit in 2007.

25 Home Runs is a very very reasonable expectation.  Garko’s another sleeper for me, and in that Indians’ offense — he should produce.

18. Mike Jacobs

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mike Jacobs	477	32	1	67	93	0.247	0.299	0.514	0.3	0.812

Jacobs can smash it.  If you’re so inclined, go ahead and move the newly branded KC Royal up above those light-hitting average guys.

Jacobs’ numbers are hard to predict with the move, but his power numbers should hover around that 30 mark.  Jacobs has got a boat-load of pure power, but he tends to miss the ball quite a bit when he’s aiming for those fences.

19. Jason Giambi

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jason Giambi	458	32	2	68	96	0.247	0.373	0.502	0.68	0.876

Rebirth. Sweet Sweet Rebirth. I’ve always admired Giambi for admitting his mistakes, and the Yankees definitely knew he was juicing when they signed him to that mega-deal.

Unfortunately, crap happens.  There’s a lot of risk associated with Giambi and his pimple-ridden steroid back — but he could also go for 30 dingers  and  90 RBI.

20. Billy Butler

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Billy Butler	443	11	0	44	55	0.275	0.324	0.4	0.58	0.724

Big-Fat-Billy-Butler. He can hit, and he has hit in every level except the major league level.  You may think .275 is fine for a first baseman, but Butler’s value is going  to come based on the number of points he hits above 300.

He’s primed for a decent year, but there’s going to be more than a few bumps.  Get on him while he’s hot, and enjoy the ride while it lasts.

21. Todd Helton

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Todd Helton	299	7	0	39	29	0.264	0.391	0.388	1.22	0.779

I suppose Helton was primed for an injury plagued season sooner or later, considering he’d played 140 games each and every year since that eventful day his father forgot to pull-out.

He’s not the guy that hit 30 Homers, and knocked in 120 anymore. But there’s still value in a guy that can hit 20+ HR, and carry a 300 average.

There’s great value here, and it’s probably worth the risk.  I’ll keep bouncing Helton up this board as it gets closer and closer to opening day.  Let’s just make sure he’s healthy by opening day, before we go and do that though.

22. Paul Konerko

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Paul Konerko	438	22	2	59	62	0.24	0.344	0.438	0.81	0.783

We’re getting into the junk-pile here.  Konerko is like Helton, but without the average.  Sure he’s got the potential to hit 20-25HR, but the average will kill you.

23. Adam LaRoche

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Adam LaRoche	492	25	1	66	85	0.27	0.341	0.5	0.44	0.841

LaRoche has solid big-league power, but he’s yet to harness it — quite yet.  LaRoche, like Helton, will start moving up this draft board as I start convincing myself that he can maintain his offensive output.

A couple of years ago LaRoche looked like the next big thing, hitting 30 HR and essentially 90 R and 90RBI while hitting .285.

He’s about this far (  ) from repeating a season like that.  Obviously the R and RBI may be harder to come by in Pittsburgh, but he’s primed for a solid year.  Actually, i’ve decided to bounce him up — I’m just too lazy to do it now.

24. Nick Swisher

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Swisher	497	24	3	86	69	0.219	0.332	0.41	0.61	0.743

Swisher moves way up if you’re in a OBP over AVG league.  With that said, he needs to swing the damn bat.  He’s not that far removed from being a 20HR, 80RBI, 80R, 260AVG guy.

He should bounce back, if he’s given opportunity.  Right now, the Yankee’s outfield looks like a mess and I’m not sure how the depth chart will shape up.  If he plays, he contributes.

He gets on base, and he’ll score a boatload of runs but with the resigning of Melky Cabrera, he may be on the way out.  Just keep an eye on the Yankees roster, and adjust your Swisher Ranking accordingly.

If Swisher gets an everyday gig, he’s amazing value as I’m sure he’ll be closer to .275 than the .220 he put up last year.

25. Daric Barton

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Daric Barton	446	9	2	59	47	0.226	0.327	0.348	0.66	0.674

talent’s there.

26. Nick Johnson

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Johnson	109	5	0	15	20	0.22	0.415	0.431	1.32	0.846

It’s here too, unfortunately Nick Johnson should have been Bruce’s Willis’ nemesis in “Unbreakable”.

27. Hank Blalock

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Hank Blalock	258	12	1	37	38	0.287	0.338	0.508	0.48	0.846

And to think there was a time when Blalock was just the prospect that Teixiera was…and to think.

Anyways, Blalock is here because I personally hate the man.  He’ll be moved up to 20th or so, as he can still swat.

25 Home Runs, here we come.