Billy Butler

Sacks Juiced: May 26

Dallas Braden left the Oakland loss in the fourth inning with a sore ankle.  Braden had issued an unearned run and three hits in four innings before allowing a couple walks and being pulled.  Braden believes that he’ll make his next scheduled start.

Braden’s counterpart, Jeremy Guthrie, pitched six innings allowing one earned run for the quality start.  Guthrie walked three batters while only striking out a couple. As I’ve said before, Guthrie’s a rate-stat only fantasy pitcher with a penchant for keeping his BABIP low by inducing groundballs and catchable flies.  Guthrie’s FIP, xFIP and tERA will always trend above his actual ERA but hoping for a continuation of 3.64 ERA is a pipe dream.  Jeremy Guthrie is the king of average, and you should probably expect that going forward.

Jake Peavy got lit up by the Sizemore-less Cleveland Indians.  Peavy allowed 6ER on 8H but only walked a single batter while striking out 5.  Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald went deep off of Peavy.  Peavy hasn’t looked like this since his second year in the league (2007) where he went 12-11 with an ERA of 4.11 and a FIP of almost five.  The strike-outs are still there (8.02K/9) but the walks have ballooned past 3 and a half.

Mitch Talbot lowered his ERA to 3.73 and WHIP to 1.28 with a 7 inning, 2 earned run ball game against the Sox.  At this point, shutting down the Sox is nothing to celebrate.  After starting the season with an ERA in the twos, Talbot’s had 3 bad games in his last five (Jays, Detroit, and KC).

Travis Hafner’s average is up to .281 after a couple of hits but it’s an empty average.  Hafner’s power is nowhere near his career mark and his ISO is under .150.  There’s some good news on the horizon though, just not 30HR news.  Over the last 8-games, Hafner’s managed extra bases (4Doubles, 1HR) in five.  Hafner’s working on a 12-Game hitting streak, too!  For someone that started May with a .197 AVG and .324 SLG, closing it out with a .281 AVG and .430 SLG is pretty impressive.

Jason Heyward went 2-for-4 with a couple RBIs and now has a .296/.415/.578 line which makes for one hell of a .992 OPS.

Cameron Maybin had 2 hits and a DINGER! but this is me ignoring those numbers.

Maybe Anibal Sanchez gets his own article after 6.1IP of 5H, 2ER, 6K baseball.

Life sure is good for Martin Prado who now has 32 Runs on the year after a 3hit, 1R night.  Batting ahead of Heyward et. al means 52% of your pitches will be in the zone and almost 65% will be fastballs.

Doumit hit a homer and Andrew McCutchen had a couple hits to raise his BA to .324.  McCutchen’s .371 BABIP is high for even him — he’s more of a .290 hitter.

Mike Leake magically turned 10 hits and a walk into only a single earned run.  Leake went 7.1 innings and struck out three — This kid can pitch and if this were a different year (read. no Heyward,) he’d be the odds on favourite to win the NL ROY.

Lester walked FIVE! batters and gave up one hit in his 6 inning, 0ER, 9K performance.  Despite the walks, he’s back to being Jon Lester, future Cy Young award winner. A single by Wily Aybar was the only hit on the day against Lester.  I’m starting to think that the Rays enjoy being no-hit.

James Shields allowed 2 ER, 4H, 2BB while striking out 5 over his 8 inning stint.  Shields pitched a terrific game and is still amongst the elite.

Mike Cameron is back, yet it was Ellsbury rather than Hermida that sat.

Jose Reyes stole 2 bases, had 3 hits, and scored 3 runs last night.  He is an elite shortstop, even if the power’s not there.

R.A. Dickey had 7K in 6IP but I’d rather not discuss a knuckleballer.  Dickey managed to get his way out of three bases loaded jams in the first three innings, so thing’s aren’t exactly exciting.

Derrek Lee hit a homer but the BA is still a concern — Lee’s hitting 21% LD and his BABIP is .262 so there’s definitely room for improvement. ZiPS has him hitting .280 the rest of the season.

Ryan Dempster looked great holding LA scoreless while allowing three hits while striking out seven and walking a single batter.

Clayton Kershaw only allowed 4 H and a couple of walks but it once again took him 100+ pitches to get through 6IP.

Vladdy Guerrero went off for a couple of DINGERS! in his 5RBI performance.  Hamilton and Cruz didn’t miss out on the action, each hitting one of their own.

Billy Butler continued his hot hitting with a couple hits and a walk.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gil Meche is hurt; something’s wrong with his delivery and presence. Meche gave up 6 R (4ER) on 4HR and has a 6.66 ERA on the year.

Rich Harden continues to test my patience after allowing 6R (5ER) against the Royals.  Neftali Feliz got the save and looks to be doing his thang.

Rickie Weeks went 3-for-5 with 2R, 2RBI and a HR.  Weeks still strikes out too much and doesn’t walk nearly enough but this may be a sign that his mid-May slump is over.

Recent call-up, Jonathan Lucroy, has a couple hits in his first two games.  Unfortunately, the ballsy catcher saw it fit to try and steal a base — fail.  Lucroy did steal 8 bases in A-ball a couple years ago, but I wouldn’t count on more than 1 at the MLB level.  Lucroy will more than like split the platoon with Kottaras while Zaun’s out.

Both Jhouyls Chacin and Ian Kennedy pitched a’ight games.  If I had to pick one going forward, Chacin’s electric stuff takes it.

Yah, that’s Troy Tulowitzki’s third homer in 3 games and 4th in 5 games.

In THE pitching match-up of the night, Jon Garland tossed 7IP of scoreless baseball for the win but was outpitched by Adam Wainwright who, aside from a solo-knock by Hairston Jr, pitched brilliantly.  Wainwright struck out 12 Padres while only allowing a single walk and four hits — that’s how the cookie crumbles, I guess.

Jose Bautista hit another homer, as did Jeremy Reed and Aaron Hill, but it wasn’t enough.  Aside from the Dingers!, Ervin Santana pitched a masterful game by locating his fastball and getting the Jays to chase that dirty slider.  Santana pitched a complete game 4-hitter with 10Ks — going forward, I wouldn’t be too worried about those HR.

Mike Napoli is on fire: 4HR in his last 5G and 5HR in his last 8G.

Doug Fister got yet another win from a 7 inning, 3R, 2ER, 1K performance.  This guy blows my mind.

Maybe Milton Bradley’s finally rounding into form with a homer and 3RBI last night.

Livan Hernandez is finally regressing!!!!

4ER in 5IP on 7Hits last night.

Billy Butler

Sacks Juiced: May 24th, The Weekend.

Ryan Doumit of the Pirates went deep and continues to torture me for giving up on him.  Everything about Doumit’s early career pointed towards the loss of catcher eligibility and I cut bait — Needless to say, Doumit’s played 37 games at Catcher in 2010 after 71 and 106 in the previous two years.  In 2010, Doumit’s struck down 3 of 37 potential stolen bases.  I love where Doumit’s at when it comes to plate discipline, though:  The walk rate’s up to almost 10%, the O-Swing’s down to 2006-7 levels.  ZiPS has him at 13HR on the season, but he’s just a hotstreak away from a 20HR season.

Trevor Crowe continues to do an admirable job playing CF for the Tribe — 2 H, 2R and a SB.

Homer Bailey continues to play the roll of drunk flirty girl at a frat party that doesn’t put out: Bailey left in the 3rd with shoulder tightness.  Apparently, it’s not overly serious.

Kerry Wood finally got a save.  Good news.  As long as the heat’s there, and the health is sorta-kinda there, I’m buying.

Scott Rolen hit another homer (that’s 10!) and he finally appears to be healthy.  The evolution of Scott Rolen is just amazing –  He regularly struck out 20% of the time with the Phils and Cards before gradually cutting down on the strike-outs. Normally we’d celebrate this, but Rolen’s ISO took a nose dive.  In 2010, Rolen’s back to striking out 18% of the time and the ISO is back above .200 at .294!  Rolen’s HR/FB ratio is at 20% after a career of 11.1%; so regression is imminent but he should be able to outperform the projections provided he stays healthy.

Even on a bad Cleveland team, Shin-Soo Choo has cemented his spot as a top-50 fantasy player with a couple runs on three hits.

In Bizzaro world, Tim Wakefield goes 8IP allowing 0 ER and Roy Halladay goes 5.2 allowing 6ER.

Jacoby Ellsbury is back!  Keep an eye on his SB/CS.  Quite frankly, I’d imagine busted up ribs aren’t fans of headfirst slides.

Drew Storen pitched 1.2 innings and Matt Capps blew a save.  Storen’s averaged 94.3MPH on his fastball, thus far.

Kevin Millwood had another Kevin Millwood start:  6 IP, 3ER, 8K.  The Ks are intriguing and I even bet a pretty penny on Millwood yesterday but he’s still Kevin Millwood.  Same goes for Corey Patterson, he’s still Corey Patterson — 1 SB yesterday.

The White Sox got stomped by the Marlins:  Guillen, I just sunk your battleship. Ozzie Guillen arguably has the worst line-up management skills in the league. Basically every free swinger in the Marlins line-up hit a DINGER!  Cantu, Uggla, Ross — check, check, check.  Surprise alert:  Cameron Maybin had one AB and struck out.  You can have all the tools in the world but in the end, the game of baseball is still about hitting a baseball.

Josh Johnson went 6IP without allowing a run but he failed to strike out a White Sox batter.

Carlos Silva got another win.  Seriously?  He’s 6-and-0.  His 5.2K per 9 is the best of his career.

Speaking of wins, David Price got his 7th on the year in an outing where he only went 5 innings and gave up 5ER.  Price is still one of my favourites going forward but he was due for a couple flyballs leaving the yard.  I can’t make this clear enough;  David Price isn’t a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher.  The BABIP and BB% are quite worrisome and should result in more ER.  This may be the perfect sell high time on Price if you don’t think he’ll clean it up.

Kevin Gregg’s starting to implode:  4 ER in the past 1.1 IP.  You’ve got to hold onto him at this point because there’s no way in hell you’re getting any value out of him in a trade.

John Axford got the save for the Brewers and throws very hard (mid-to-high 90s) but walks too many and allowed 3 Hits last night.  While Axford struck out 3 in the 9th, it wasn’t pretty.

In case you forgot that I was a Canadian, Axford hails from my hometown (Simcoe, ON) and Jesse Crain, who pitched for the Twins, was born in my current city (Toronto, ON) — This is a pretty big deal.

Billy Butler went 4-for-5 with a single RBI — he’s hitting .346 on the season.  The BABIP is about 25pts too high but he’s absolutely punishing the ball.  Butler sure can hit the fastball.

Troy Tulowitzki hit another homer — that’s 3 in the past 4 games.  I’m confident in saying that Tulowitzki is no longer missing the sweet spot.

Ian Stewart had a good game with a couple hits and 3 RBI and has settled into the 25% K-Rate.  With Stewart, the doubles have been there but the homers haven’t quite kicked in.  I’m not sure if we’re dealing with a new approach but Stewart’s hitting 27% (up 12%) LD and and only 36% FB (down 9%).  I’m sure owners want the DINGERS! but this ratio is nothing to frown upon.

That’s it for now — I’m missing LAA/STL, SF/OAK, TOR/ARI, SD/SEA, DET/LAD, and NYY/NYM.  They’ll get taken care off shortly, as there aren’t many games on tonight.

Happy Victoria Day.

Billy Butler

Operation Rake: Recent Bombers For A Playoff Push

I guess it’s time to rub it in, Kendry Morales is a beast.  On the season, Morales has 60 R / 75 RBI / 25 HR and a .300 AVG.   My only concern with Kendry Morales was his work ethic or his “fat and lazy” rating, which is still a concern.  I thought I was going out on a limb when I predicted 25 HR, but apparently not as Morales continue to smoke the ball.

In both Yahoo and ESPN standard leagues, Morales is still only owned in 80% of leagues, despite being a top-50 player in both.  Over the past two weeks, Morales has caught fire.  Only Mark Reynolds has more HR over that span, and his season is so inexplicable that I’ve given up trying to understand it.    On the season, Morales has kept a steady BB% while limiting his strike-outs.  Finding an OPS on the green side of .900 shouldn’t be this easy.  So, obviously if Morales is available, snap him up — but realistically, this is more about me just jerking off my ego.

The Atlanta Braves are only 3.5 out of the wild-card spot (when I looked that up I nearly shat myself.)  I get to catch the occasional game on TBS, and definitely enjoy “THE BRAVES PLAY HERE” commercials between re-runs of Friends, or Seinfeld, but it never clicked in that the Braves were in a playoff race.  Either way, Adam LaRoche is home, and is a prime “BUY NOW” candidate.  LaRoche is only owned in 28% of Yahoo! leagues, and has 3HR and a .395 AVG over the past two weeks.  ZiPS has LaRoche pegged for 23 HR on the season, or 7 more, but I’m taking the over.  LaRoche will get to 25HR on the year, and he’ll do it while batting…gasp…275ish.

If you read any other Fantasy Sports websites, odds are that you’ve already rushed out and picked up Big-Fat Billy Butler.  I love the kid, and I’m not sure if he’ll be overrated or underrated going into next year, but we’ll cross that bridge when we get to it.  As for this year, Butler’s mashing with a .353/.397/.588 slash-line.  He’s still only owned in 36% of leagues, but should definitely finish the year as a top-12 first basemen.

Sticking to America’s mid-west like Angus Chili to your ribs, I’ll deal with my biggest mistake in Alex Gordon.  There’s no explaining Alex Gordon, and I’m sure I’ll be hyping him going into next year too.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Gordon manages a decent surge to close out the 2009 season, though.  There’s no reason to recommend Gordon, and I probably should be recommending Gordon Beckham, but I’ve got a gut feeling.  Gordon’s still striking out way too much, but I can see a nice little home-run tear in the near future.

I’ll close things out with a Blue Jay:  Lyle Overbay has been absolutely killing the ball, when he’s not walking (25% BB) or striking out (25% K.)  I won’t whole-heartedly recommend Overbay, but he’s always had the talent to be a doubles-machine.

Billy Butler

Top First Basemen In Keeper Dynasty League

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30′s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30′s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30′s to low-40′s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.

Billy Butler

Spring Training: In Like A Lion and Out Like A Lamb.

Does a drastic increase in OPS during spring training foreshadow a breakout season? Who knows.  Regardless of such uncertainty, here’s a few gentleman that’ve been putting up very solid numbers.

Kevin Frandsen (2B – SFG) is hitting .303 with a .424 SLG which should probably be enough to hold off the charging Emmanuel Burriss (2B-SFG) who’s hitting .397 with a .492 slugging percentage.  Eugenio Velez (2B/OF – SFG) isn’t that far behind hitting .339 and slugging .548.  Everyone but Frandsen possesses solid stolen base potential, but it looks like a two-horse race between Frandsen and Burriss.  Giants manager Bruce Bochy said he’d announce the winner of the open-competition before the Giants left Arizona on Wednesday.

Daniel Murphy (LF – NYM) seems to be going higher and higher in drafts and with the spring he’s having; it seems warranted. Murphy’s hitting .333 with a .455 slugging percentage.  He hasn’t hit a dinger yet, which should worry you a little bit considering he’s only going to have OF eligibility.

This may be the year that Corey Hart (OF – MIL) puts everything together.  He’s your typical tools guy, who hasn’t quite put it together.  Hart’s already got 6HR and is batting .404.  It seems as though our favourite free-swinger may have put some time in this off-season. 13 strike outs to only 3 walks is still concerning though.

Our favourite error-prone Canadian Mark Teahan (2B/OF – KC) has hit 5 HR in only 39AB. He’s hitting .487, and only has 8 strikeouts compared to 5 walks.  Fellow Royal, Mike Jacobs (1B – KC) has hit 6 HR, but has also struck out 18 times! I still would have some issues rostering Jacobs. Billy Butler (1B – KC) has been posting terrific numbers too.

Two aging first basemen are both healthy and raking.  Todd Helton (1B – COL) and Paul Konerko (1B – CHW) are both hitting over .400 with 4 HR. Both of these guys should be rosterable in deep leagues, and borderline in shallow leagues.  I wouldn’t be surprised if both of ‘em go through streaks where they perform in the top-10 first basemen.

Sweet-Swinging Jeremy Hermida (OF – FLA) may have finally put it all together. He’s hit 4 HR, and is batting .340 with 5 walks to 9 strikeouts while slugging .642. Delmon Young and Jeremy Hermedia are two post-hype sleepers you probably want to keep an eye on.

The perennial prospect, Brandon Wood (3B-LAA), looks primed for at least a useful year. He’s hitting .347 while slugging .735.  The key stat for Wood is 8 strikeouts in 49 AB.  For someone who’s known for putting up a 30 percent strike-out rate, this is spectacular.

I’m really starting to worry about everyone’s favourite American League Sleeper, Chris Davis (1B/3B – TEX). 21 strikeouts in 61 at-bats during Spring Training is concerning, very concerning.  I’m sure he’ll put up solid numbers in Texas, but he’s going to be streaky. Two other youngsters, Colby Rasmus (OF-STL) and Chris Dickerson (OF-CIN) are also posting unhealthy strike-out numbers.  Dickerson is still very worthy of a draft-pick at this point, even in shallow leagues.

Carl Crawford (OF-TAM) seems healthy again, Thank God.  He’s stole 6 bases in 37 AB. Not many people think the Rays will compete with the Red Sox and Yankees in 2009.  This should help Crawford’s stolen base numbers.  40 Stolen bases from this former first rounder isn’t out of the question.

I wouldn’t put too much weight on it, but Adam Jones (OF – BAL) is having a great spring. Jones is a ball player, with a very solid shot at 20/20 this year. Last year’s 9 HR and 10 SB just seems ridiculous considering his talent.  Jones is one hell of a sleeper in just about any format. It also appears as though Jones will open the year hitting second in the new Orioles line-up, which should mean an increase across the board.

Pablo Sandoval ( UTIL – SFG) just won’t go away.  I really don’t like Sandoval as a sleeper, something just seems off.  He is however hitting .448 with 39 total bases in 58 AB.

Everyone’s favourite Toronto Blue Jay, Travis Snider (OF – TOR), is hitting a very solid .381 with a .690 slugging percentage.  Snider’s my favourite player, so don’t expect unbiased information from this analyst.  The single, paltry, walk is still concerning.  We’ll see how long it takes pitchers to start adjusting to him.  The Blue Jays won’t be hesitant to send him down, but he belongs on the big league roster.

Staying on Travis’, Travis Buck (OF-OAK) and his beautiful Man-Mane is starting to come into his own and continuing the Athletics trend of walking just as much as you strike-out.

One of my favourites, Kendry Morales (1B – LAA) appears to be posting a solid spring with a .356 AVG and .576 SLG.  I’m not sure why more people aren’t hyping him up — when he came out, he had all sorta of hype, and then got the “fat and lazy” tag.

Hey, Shouldn’t You Be Striking Out?

Nelson Cruz (OF – TEX) strikes out at 25 percent clip has 5 strikeouts and 4 walks in 31 AB.

Hank Blalock (3B/UTIL – TEX) also seems to be showing last year’s huge decline in K-rate is the real deal.  He’s struck out 6 times, and walked 7 times in 48 AB.

Ian Stewart (3B – COL) seems to have shown improvement over last year’s 35 percent strike-out rate. He’s only struck out 7 times in 44 AB, to go along with 5 BB.

In addition to killing spring training pitching, J.J. Hardy (SS – MIL) has only struck out 5 times in 52 AB.  That’s the same amount he’s walked.

Does Rick Ankiel (OF – STL) ever stop improving? He, of the 2008 25% K-Rate, is hitting .356 with 12 K and 11 BB in 73AB.  I’m starting to buy this whole “Rick Ankiel Is Awesome” talk.

Khalil Greene ( SS – STL) has seriously only struck out 3 times in 60 AB. Greene still doesn’t walk, but he’s an annual 25% strike-out guy. Maybe we’re onto something, maybe he’s just enduring one of his hot-streaks.

Jason Kubel (UTIL – MIN) and his 20 percent career strike-out rate has only 3 K’s in 45 AB.

Cameron Maybin (OF – FLA) and his 12 strike-outs to 7 walks in 54 AB, is intriguing — very intriguing.  Every projection model out there has Maybin striking out at a 30 percent clip.

Billy Butler

Diva On A Dime: Fantasy Baseball Edition

Diva on a Dime is a downright awful show, that I believe is truly 100% Canadian Goodness. If left unchecked, Canadian televisions stations would just play American TV shows all day, every day — this is how we end up with CANCON, which forces Canadians to sit through hours of awful television.

Anyways, it’s time to create a fantasy baseball roster without using a single player drafted in the top-200 picks according to ESPN’s Average Live Draft Position.  Obviously, with fun little gimmicks like this, we’re going to be going high-risk/high-reward.

Diva On A Dime Hitters (ADP>200)

C: Kelly Shoppach – Pick 211: Shoppach had 21 homers in 352 AB. A lot of people are going to shy away from him because he doesn’t have a spot to play. A healthy Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner and Ryan Garko really clog up his options.  Lucky for you, good hitters find spots in the line-up.

If you think all three of the aforementioned players stay healthy, then maybe go with Ramon Hernandez (Pick 202) or Jeff Clement (Pick 245).  I’d also take a risk on Saltalamacchia who doesn’t even register with ESPN at this point.

1B: Big Ole Billy Butler – Pick 242: At this point in the draft it makes sense to go with a lighter hitting first baseman with a solid batting average, rather than a masher like Mike Jacobs / Adam LaRoche. Butler’s competition comes from Loney (ADP: 166), Kotchman (ADP: 237) and a few over-the-hill sluggers (Helton, Giambi, Konerko).

Butler however brings the best value, and best power potential of the doubles-machines.  Loney has the better line-up, and batting directly after Manny will allow him ample opportunity to drive in runs, but Butler has a shot at 22-25HR.  Toss in his .300+ average, and an improved Royal’s squad and we have our first baseman.

Bill James’ Projection Model has Butler at: 73 R/ 18HR / 87 RBI / .295 BA with 15 SB — just kidding, but Zips and Marcel have Butler stealing 2 bases in 3 attempts.

2B: Felipe Lopez – Pick 216: I’m all over Lopez like white on rice. 2005 was a 23HR season, and 2006 brought us 44SB.  Lopez is still only 28 years old (turns 29 in May) but it seems like he’s been around forever.

With Lopez on a good team, and apparently wanting to play again — I expect big things.

SS: Khalil Greene – Pick 224: Greene has been smashing the hell out of spring-training pitching to the tune of a .400 average and .560 SLG percentage.  I’ve been high on Greene all winter, and this doesn’t change my mind.  I wouldn’t rate him terribly higher based on these spring training stats because he’s still Khalil Greene, which you can clearly see by comparing his .400 AVG to his .429 OBP.

MI: Orlando Cabrera – Pick 204: I was tempted to go with Elvis Andrus (ADP 228) here, because we’re going to need some serious steals — but we’ve already got Greene killing our BA.

I like Cabrera in the new and improved Oakland line-up, and expecting 20SB to go along with a solid .280 BA, and at least decent Run totals should fill the hole.

The potential for Andrus and his 50SB is tantalizing.

3B: Edwin Encarnacion – Pick 198: Hey, up until a couple days ago he was ranked right at 200th overall.  Every thing’s in-line for a break-out season. I did a write-up on Edwin a couple days ago, it’ll do all the ‘splainin’

CI: Mark Reynods – Pick 202: We need 30 HR from this spot, so this comes down to a brutal battle between Reynolds and Jason Giambi. I’d like to take a chance of Kendry Morales, who doesn’t even register on ESPN — but I’ll save him for later.

The battle between Reynolds and Giambi comes down to BA, and strangely enough Reynolds wins. All of the projection models believe his 2008 average of .239 was a mistake, and he should rebound to anywhere from .249 to .269.  I can live with that, so long as the HR, R, RBI are there.

We also just nabbed ourselves 10 more SB.

OF: Nelson Cruz – Pick 202: Bill James has him coming in at 31HR, 81R, 92RBI with a .280 average.  While i’m not completely sold, and I still somewhat see Cruz as a quad-A player — Cant turn him away at pick 202.

OF: Elijah Dukes – Pick 226: Oh Me, Oh My.  Dukes has all the talent in the world, and could easily go 25HR/25SB but he could also hit 3 HR and steal .75 Bases.  This is the high-risk/high-reward thing I was talking about.

OF: Chris Dickerson – Pick, I dont Know: Let’s drop the bomb and select another potential 25/25 guy with a whole lot of risk.  BJ Robot has him at 37 Steals and 21 HR! I’ll take that.  His skill set is nice, and Reds fan’s will appreciate him.

UTIL: Shin-Soo Choo – Pick 204: Might as well throw in another solid Power / Speed combo guy with a solid average.  At this point, the outfield and util spots have really saved this team.  Choo’s on many folks lists to break out in 2009, and I can’t blame ‘em.

…now onto pitching

SP1: Brandon Morrow – Pick 217: I thought with the hype Morrow was getting he’d be way above this point.  Take Morrow and Run.  He’s got a great K-rate, and while he’s a bit wild, don’t worry be happy.

SP2: Chris Young – Pick 219: Chris Young has bad luck, but isn’t a huge injury concern unless you think he’s been psychologically broken by that Pujols line-drive to the face. With Young you’re getting the potential for a Golden-WHIP (1.13 in 2006, and 1.10 in 2007) and at least 8K per 9.

SP3: Ubaldo Jiminez – Pick 227: You’ll notice we’re loading up on high-strikeout pitchers.  With the lack of saves available to us at this point, we’re probably going to have to punt the category and thus draft some very solid late-inning relievers.  They’ll be bringing low-era, low-whip to offset our massive control issues.

Jiminez is posed for a break-out year, even if half his games are pitched at Coors.

RP1: Jason Motte – Pick 210: Motte’s value will keep rising with the news that he’s won the closer role over Chris Perez, in St. Louis. We’ve got a shot at some saves here, so we might as well take it.

RP2: Jose Arredondo – Pick 233: There’s still a couple closers, but that’s no fun.  If you’re into Huston Street or George Sherrill, the choice is yours. At this point though, Arredondo brings a lot of goodies, like a solid era and a very good K-rate.

Expecting a return to 10-win-land is ridiculous, but pitching in late relief for the Angels will provide him with plenty of chances to nab those random-wins or even saves.  He should be one of the first non-closers off the board.

P: John Maine – Pick 226: Maine regressed in every possible category last year.  If he levels out, you should expect a sub-4.00 ERA, 180K, and round about 1.30ish WHIP.  This is pretty solid for a player who’s upside could easily eclipse these numbers.

P: Manny Parra – Pick 234: I’m banking on Parra improving in 2009, along with him pitching a full-season. Parra’s a solid lefty that should be able to put up 8ish K per 9. The K:BB ratio is only going to be around 1.5, which’ll limit your WHIP to around 1.40ish with a good amount of upside.  Parra won’t repeat the 1.54 disaster  that he called his 2008 WHIP, again.

P: Jared Weaver – Pick 216: Weaver was once a top-prospect that all the fantasy folk were drooling over.  Now, he seems to be an afterthought.  The man’s got terrible hair, but all the potential in the world.  His nearly 8 K per 9, combined with a very solid 2.81 strikesouts per walk, makes for a steal at this pick.

P: Hong Chih-Kuo – Pick 244: I figured I’d toss another reliever in here that’ll put up some solid rate stats.  We’ve got all these high-strikeout, high-walk rate starters that we need to offset. Kuo struck out 96 to only 21 walks in 2008, and in doing so posted a beautiful 4.57 K:BB ratio.

You can use this as a list of sleepers, or just something to kill time but each of these players are available after pick 200 and each could contribute to your team in even the shallowest of standard-leagues.

Billy Butler

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining First Basemen.

As I mentioned earlier, ESPN released their NEW AND IMPROVED fantasy baseball rankings for 2009 a couple days ago.  I’m not sure how improved they are, but they’re definitely new.

Let’s take a look at the first base rankings, and there are some notable exceptions:

POS	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	Mixed $	AL/NL $	MOV
1	2	Albert Pujols	STL	1B	36	37
Here we have the no-brainer to end all no-brainers. I can’t see him posting another season with such a ridiculous BA though. Still worth every penny of the 35-40 Dollars you spend on him, though.
2	7	Miguel Cabrera	DET	1B	31	29
Cabrera or Texiera? Who’s the better deal? Whoever falls further, or costs less. Other than that, it’s a toss up.
3	10	Mark Teixeira	NYY	1B	29	27
Texiera’s RUN and RBI totals should be off the charts but his real value comes from his defense. New York Pitchers will be thanking him.
4	13	Lance Berkman	HOU	1B	28	28	down
There will be a decline from last years numbers, the question is “how much?”. The steals just seem to linger, and it’s getting to the point where you can count on Berkman to snag more than his fair share of bags. I think Howard surpasses him.
5	19	Ryan Howard	PHI	1B	24	26	up
Howard is a beast, and last year’s BA was awful. There’s no way he’s that awful again, and he’ll be a steal. The strike-outs are ugly, but don’t count in fantasy. I’ve talked about punting batting average before, and in a competitive league it might make sense to do that if Howard falls into your lap.
6	22	Prince Fielder	MIL	1B	23	25
Fielder is a curious case: All the talent in the world, but hasn’t quite put it together. He’s clearly got the power, but guys ahead of him have to get on base, which is a problem in Milwaukee. There’s a good amount of boom/bust in Milwaukee this year.
7	32	Justin Morneau	MIN	1B	19	25
Morneau gets overrated due to his MVP and HR Derby win, but he’s a solid run producer. If Mauer is out, Morneau takes a huge hit – but with an improving Minny offense, it’d be wise to expect a slight increase in 2008′s numbers for Morneau.
8	39	Kevin Youkilis	BOS	3B/1B	16	23
In my books, Youk should have won MVP last year. The man was a cog, both offensively and defensively. While the scorekeepers were kind to Kevin, he is a gold-glove callibre first baseman.
9	55	Derrek Lee	CHC	1B	13	21	down
Lee’s the first pick I really disagree with. He’s getting old, has lost the speed that made him special, and is a long ways away from his golden power years. He’s still a beast when healthy, but at this point there’s a lot more value out there.
10	57	Adrian Gonzalez	SD	1B	13	21	up
Adrian Gonzalez is that value. I’d have no problem with someone ranking Gonzalez a full tier ahead of where he sits, in Youkilis territory. San Diego doesn’t have a great ballclub, nor do they have a great park but…but…but…half of his games are on the road.
11	67	Chris Davis	TEX	3B/1B	12	21	down
Davis will start incredibly hot, and I’ll get emails telling me I’m retarded for saying he’s ranked far too high but Davis is too high here. Way too high. His strike-out rate is ridiculous, and while his SLG percentage makes up for a lot of it – he’s still young and this is going to be an up and down year. If he can prove that he’s a productive high-K guy like Ryan Howard, then I’ll buy it. But for now, drop, drop, drop.
12	74	Carlos Pena	TAM	1B	11	19	up
Pena’s a steal, and while I think the Rays over-achieved last year – Pena wasn’t one of them. His 31 HR was a major decline from 2007′s 46 dingers. The batting average will never be there, but he’ll top the .247 he put up last year. Pena’s entire career has been a roller-coaster ride.
13	80	Joey Votto	CIN	1B	10	19	up
As a Canadian, I love me some Joey Votto. Votto has been having a great camp, and had an amazing stint, however brief, at the WBC. Originally down on Votto, I think he outperforms Chris Davis by a hair.
14	85	Garrett Atkins	COL	3B/1B	9	18
I’m not a huge Garrett Atkins fan, but he puts up numbers. If you’re drafting Atkins, you’re probably taking him as your third baseman, or corner infielder. He’ll put up very solid power numbers, to go along with a very solid .300 BA. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Atkins get closer to 30HR than his projected low-20′s.
15	119	Conor Jackson	ARI	1B/OF	7	17
Speaking of a power-outage at first base, here’s Conor Jackson. He’s an unconventional first baseman, in that he’ll help you in the R & AVG category rather than RBI and HR. Right now he’s set to be playing left-field, with Chad Tracy manning first but if Byrnes returns to form – Jackson will return to first.
16	138	Adam LaRoche	PIT	1B	6	16
…and now the polar opposite of Conor Jackson, Adam LaRoche. LaRoche is a notorious slow-starter, but I’m expecting bigger things this year. If he comes into camp ready to play, he’ll top 30 HR easily. He’s a pure power hitter and he’s improved his average from awful to respectable.
17	140	Carlos Delgado	NYM	1B	5	15
Carlos Delgado is old and boring, but he’ll produce. I’m not sure how many games he’ll get in, but planning for injury always comes back to bite you in the ass. If the robots say Carlos is going to hit 30HR and drive in 100 runs, who am I to argue. The batting average is always the first to go though, and maybe you should expect something in the .260-.265 range.
18	151	Pablo Sandoval	SF	1B	5	14	down
Sandoval hammered the ball last year, and like Atkins, you’ll probably be playing Pablo as your third baseman. However, he’s not a terrible option at first. His SLG percentage in limited action last year was almost .500. His BABIP was a smidgen high, so expect regression but Pablo can ball. His miniscule walk rate is concerning however. I’m not quite as high on Sandoval as some others.
19	154	James Loney	LAD	1B	4	14	up
Loney is Conor Jackson v2.0. When you look at Loney, you figure he’s gotta develop power at some point, but it’s proving to be quite the chore for James. My projection for last year was 20HR and a .300 AVG, and it’ll be the same thing this year.
20	162	Paul Konerko	CHW	1B	4	15	down
Even if Paul Konerko exceeds expectations, I’d still rather have anyone else on this list. There is reason to believe though, but I can’t bring myself to say it aloud so: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/konerkos-not-dead-yet
21	189	Jorge Cantu	FLA	3B/1B	2	13
If nothing else, Florida will be a blast to watch. The line-up is filled with boom or bust free swingers, and Cantu definitely fits that mold. Cantu had a career year last year, and it’s unlikely he’ll repeat but…if Gaby Sanchez or Dallas McPherson fall flat on their face, Cantu will play the full sched. 29 HR is probably out of the question, but anywhere between 20 and 25 seems completely reasonable. The RBI and R numbers should be solid.
22	190	Carlos Guillen	DET	3B/1B	2	13
Another guy you’re not going to play at first, but his versatility escalates his value. Guillen’s been aging well enough, and he’ll always hit for a solid average and score runs. A healthy Carlos Guillen is a steal even if he only hits 15 HR. It’s tough to find 180 RBI + R at this point, especially when you throw in a .290+ AVG
23	261	Casey Kotchman	ATL	1B	$-	11	up
I like the Casey Kotchman, and I like him a lot. He should flourish with a full-time gig in Atlanta. Atlanta’s currently rostering a pretty boring outfield, but the kids infront of Kotchman should get on base. He wont put up crazy power numbers, but he’ll hit ‘em where they aint. Expect solid R & RBI totals. Kotchman is probably the most likely of the bunch to add 10-15 HR to his totals, and leave your opponents scratching their heads.
24	269	Mike Jacobs	KC	1B	$-	10	down
Jacobs is a bit of a downer with the talent KC has waiting in the wings for the first base job. With that said, if you’re punting batting average – Jacobs is the man. If you can tolerate a sub-.250 BA, Jacobs is the man. If you’re in a HR only league, Jacobs is the man. There’s no reason why Jacobs shouldn’t be able to eclipse the 30-HR mark.
25	274	Billy Butler	KC	1B/DH	$-	10
Big-Fat-Billy-Butler did not have a good start to the 2008 campaign. The man is still a professional hitter, and I think the Royals get on base this year. He’ll have plenty-o-chances to knock ‘em in, and score some himself. Good call here, ESPN.
26	282	Todd Helton	COL	1B	$-	9	down
This is where we have to ask ourselves the question of whether or not Todd Helton lost “it”. Everything points to Helton still being a competant .300 hitter, that just had major injury issues in 2008. Helton’s back is shot, and 20 HR looks like his ceiling. Other stats are nice though, it’s painful to take Helton but at some point, you must.
27	286	Lyle Overbay	TOR	1B	$-	9	down
As someone who watched Lyle Overbay on a daily basis, I cannot give a fair opinion on him. He’s awful, though – just incase you were curious.
28	291	Hank Blalock	TEX	3B/1B	$-	9	down
Blalock’s interesting as a third baseman, and boring as a first baseman. Davis appears to have the first base job on lock-down, and Michael Young has the third-base gig. Elvis Andrus and Omar Vizquel are by no means “sure-things” but it looks like Blalock will be manning the DH spot. From the looks of it, he’ll have to share it with David Murphy, Nelson Cruz, Josh Hamilton or Andruw Jones.
29	292	Casey Blake	LAD	3B/1B	$-	9
Blake’s a solid contributor in a great line-up. He does everything well, but I have him below the next two guys.
30	293	Nick Swisher	NYY	1B/OF	$-	9	up
Swisher has to find a spot to play, but once he does he’ll be unstoppable. Swisher is a high OBP guy, who strikes out a good amount. He was also one of the unluckiest gentlemen in the majors last year. Expect a better batting average, more runs scored, more runs knocked in – Sleeper Supreme.
31	296	Jason Giambi	OAK	1B/DH	$-	9	up
Giambi returns to Oakland, and Oaklands put together a fairly solid team. They may just be the best team in the West. It’ll largely depend on the maturation of their prospect-laden starting staff. Anyways, Giambi should have a full-time gig at First/DH and has show he still has stuff left in the tank. Go ahead and draft him.
32	303	Ryan Garko	CLE	1B	$-	8	up
I’m back on the fence about Garko after feeling like he’d be a sleeper-steal this year. The Indians have been playing him out in left field, and LaPorta is looking solid. Even banking on the fact that Pronk can’t stay healthy, Garko’s job is still in jeopardy with V-Mart and LaPorta breathing down his neck.
33	329	Gaby Sanchez	FLA	1B	$-	7	up
Gaby Sanchez is a sexy rookie, and I’m surprised that ESPN has him all the way down here. Mike Jacobs proved that you can score a lot of runs, and knock in even more in that Florida line-up. If Sanchez is able maintain a job, he’ll be a steal. Especially at 329th overall.
34	336	Chad Tracy	ARI	1B	$-	7	down
Not a fan of Tracy, as I tend to think Eric Byrnes’ giganto contract will force him into a starting gig.
35	385	Chris Duncan	STL	1B/OF	$-	5
Duncan is interesting as we approach 400th overall. Skip Schumaker has been making a smooth enough transition to second base, leaving an outfield spot up for grabs. Smart money was on Colby Rasmus, but if he continues to struggle the Cardinals’ outfield may just be Duncan, Ankiel, Ludwick.
36	423	Travis Ishikawa	SF	1B	$-	4
The Giants are begging Ishikawa for production, and the “kid” has impressed so far. I like him slightly less than Sanchez in a terrible Giants offense.
37	426	Nick Johnson	WAS	1B	$-	4
Johnson isn’t going to stay healthy, and most leagues don’t count OBP. In addition to this, the Nats’ first base/outfield situation is a mess. Johnson could be a steal but there’s a lot of risk here.
38	427	Ronnie Belliard	WAS	2B/3B/1B	$-	4
Belliard quietly put up a solid season last year, but I doubt he’ll find a place to play this year. Monitor him if someone goes down.
39	428	Cody Ransom	NYY	1B	$-	6	hrm
Too much depth in New York, but I guess someone has to play third base while A-Roid recovers.
40	434	Kevin Millar	TOR	1B	$-	5
The Jays could have done worse, and why Millar would be here and Overbay all the way up there boggles my mind.
41	479	Jeff Baker	COL	2B/1B	$-	2
He might snag AB once Helton goes down but for now it looks like the infield is full.
42	490	Wilson Betemit	CHW	3B/1B	$-	2
A solid safety net as Josh Fields is as untested as they come.
43	520	Daric Barton	OAK	1B	$-	2	up!
I’m not sure how ESPN got so down on this once-prized-prospect. Barton should produce well above the 2 dollar range.
44	530	Willy Aybar	TAM	3B/1B/DH	$-	1
Playing time is going to be the problem.
45	666	Chris Shelton	SEA	1B	$-	1
Seattle is bad, real bad.
46	729	Rich Aurilia	FA	1B	$-	$-
Seriously?
47	747	Michael Aubrey	CLE	1B	$-	$-
Interesting, but I’m not buying it this year.
48	782	Doug Mientkiewicz	LAD	1B	$-	$-
No Way In Hell.
49	785	John Bowker	SF	1B	$-	$-
This is why the Giants want Travis Ishikawa to succeed.
50	786	Aaron Boone	HOU	1B	$-	$-
Could provide some solid numbers if he finds a place to play.

What’s Missing?

Kendry Morales – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: I know I’m higher on Morales than others, but to completely leave him off the list seems a bit goofy. I’m parking him somewhere in the range of former Angels’ first basemen, Casey Kotchman.

Micah Hoffpauir – Chicago Cubs of Chicago: Obviously the ESPN loves the Derrek Lee, but I think Hoffpauir manages to grab himself at least a couple hundy at-bats this year.  If Lee goes down, Hoffpauir has the tools to be a nice fill-in in deep leagues.

Nick Evans – New York Mets: He’s almost certainly going to start in Triple-A (maybe double-A, if they’re cautious), but he’s been killing the ball in spring training.  As I mentioned earlier, I’m not certain that Delgado stays healthy.  Evans may get an early audition and could stick if given the chance.

The Baltimore Orioles: Who knows who ESPN has playing first base for Baltimore, but considering the guys they list as “first basemen” you’d figure they’d include Aubrey Huff? Ty Wigginton? Someone has to play first base, and whoever does should excel.  Obviously it’s going to be Huff, who has greater value as a third basemen but that didn’t stop them from listing Atkins and Sandoval.

Ryan Shealy and Kila Ka’aihue – Kansas City Royals: Both are parked behind Billy Butler and Mike Jacobs in the 1st base / DH log-jam.  Shealy’s proven to be a resiliant hitter, and Ka’aihue was one of my favourite prospects coming into the year.  The odds favour Shealy and his ability to play the outfield, but if Kila keeps mashing — he’ll find himself some AB.

Billy Butler

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers By Team

Fantasy Baseball has its share of guys drafted in the late rounds, or picked up for a dollar that really pan out.  You’re generally not going to get anyone who absolutely kills it for a buck, or in the last round, unless you’re in a 10-12 team default league.  But here are some guy’s that’ll fill in nicely.

Minor Leaguers / Hot Prospects will have their own list, so they are excluded from this one.

Position Players

Anaheim Angels

Kendry Morales (1b) came over from Cuba in 2005 with a boatload of hype, and then proceeded to become spectacularly average.  The Fantasy World was abuzz just a few years ago about the Angels’ corner infielders, Dallas McPherson and Kendry Morales.  Then, they just stopped maturing, and when called up couldn’t produce.  None the less, Morales has had an incredible winterball season and obviously the talent is there.  Power hitting first basemen aren’t going to be gotten for a buck, but he’ll be cheaper come draft day.  Hopefully the Angels stay with Morales and resist the temptation to sign a first baseman.  Morales will produce and 25HR, 85RBI, 75R, and a .270 AVG seems reasonable.

Houston Astros

J.R. Towles (C) came into last year as the second hot catching prospect behind Soto. While Soto excelled as a major league backstop, Towles really shit the bed.  It Wouldn’t be out of the question to see Towles hit 15-20 HR, and Bill James has him hitting 17HR. Keep an eye on the starting Catcher’s job as Toby Hall was recently brought in to clean up the mess if Towles struggled.

Oakland Athletics

There’s going to be some value here, the problem is there are a lot of players around the same talent level fighting for jobs.

Ryan Sweeney (CF) wins the starting CF job, and has the possibility of going 15HR, 15SB.

Travis Buck (RF) has a tonne of talent, and flopped horribly last year.  He’s a top-tier young player that should develop power to go along with his solid batting eye.  As with all the stupid Athletics — Buck walks a lot and strikes out more.

Eric Patterson’s (OF /2B) AAA averages of .300+ have not translated well to the big leagues.  The Athletics acquired Patterson in the Harden deal, and will eventually end up with a solid player.  He’s got speed and, above all, second base eligibility.  If the Athletics can find a place for Patterson, he’ll be worth the dollar or two you’ll have to spend on him. His MLB strike-out rate isn’t a pretty sight though, so lets just hope he can drop it below 20%.

Daric Barton (1B) is yet another On Base Machine in the Oakland Athletics system.  He hit .347 in 84 PA in 2007, and then proceeded to stink up the joint (AAA and MLB) in 2008. Barton should have the inside gig on the first base job, with Jason Giambi as the DH.  If he continues to stink it up though; Giambi will move to first with Cust to DH which opens up the outfield for the two names above (Patterson or Buck).

Toronto Blue Jays

Travis Snider (OF / 1B) probably wont come as cheap as I’d like, but he should put up a solid rookie/sophmore season.  He came up for a cup of coffee in 2008, and impressed.  Generally listed among everyones top 10 MLB prospects, Snider is only 21 and has flown through the Jays system.  In limited action in 2008, he hit .300 with a couple dingers. There’s always the possibility the Jays start Snider off in the minors and keep him there for a good chunk, to save cash in the long run.  If Snider can keep ahold of the starting gig for the entire season, 20 HR aren’t out of the question.

While Snider may have more future potential, Adam Lind (OF) looks primed for a solid and productive 2009 campaign.  The Jays babied Lind quite a bit as he was coming through the system, and many Jays fans wanted Lind to stick with the big club a year earlier than he did.  Adam Lind has a realistic shot of hitting between .290 and .305 and, while his power numbers are sick-awesome, he should get to 20-25 HR on the season.  Lind brings incredible value to the table, and should be cheap come draft day.

Atlanta Braves

Josh Anderson(CF) will find a place to play in 2009, he’s gots-ta.  Anderson has quick-fast feet and should steal plenty of bases, cheaply.  He’ll hopefully get on-base somewhere between 33-35 percent of the time and could steal 35-40 bases this year if given the chance. Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones sit ahead of him, both of which have hopes and dreams of their own.  Anderson should be able to snake the starting CF job away from Blanco.  Anderson’s one of my favourites going into the season.

Martin Prado (UTIL) is a second baseman by trade, but has filled in for Chipper Jones and will continue to fill in at third whenever Jones goes down.  While Prado doesn’t have a starting gig, he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.  His .320 batting average last year was a result of a silly-stupid .360 BABIP but he appears to be a legitimate .290 – .300 hitter with not much else.  He gets on base, and has a good LD%.

Casey Kotchman will outperform his value, but by no means is he a sleeper.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bill Hall (3B) hit 290 in 2005, and everything was looking up. Then his strike out rates went as follows, presented with the corresponding averages: 2005 20 K%, .291  AVG, 2006 30 K%, .270 AVG, 2007 28 K%, .254 AVG, 2008 31 K%, .225 AVG.  To expect things from Hall is nutty, but if he can just manage to keep that bloody K percentage down to even 23-25%, he’ll be useful.

Anyone know if Alcides Escobar can play a solid third-base?

St. Louis Cardinals

Khalil Greene (SS). I like Greene this year, and I’m crazy for it.  It’s one of those doesn’t make sense gut feelings, that will either win you or lose you a fantasy league. Maybe he hits .260 and pulls his typical week with 5 HR, 4 Weeks with 0 HR type season.

David Freese (3B) went from three years of high and low A ball with the Padres to killing in triple A with the Cardinals.  Something smells fishy, but he’s listed as the guy behind Glaus.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Fontenot (2B) is the closest thing to a sleeper on this team, and who knows if he’ll out-perform his value.  He deserves to start over Aaron Miles, but weird shit happens in the windy city.  Keep an eye on this little situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Felipe Lopez (2B) will be filling the void at second left by Orlando Hudson, the O-Dog. I’m pretty high on Lopez, but he’s got some attitude issues.  Lopez probably makes my list of top 10 sleepers going into 2009. He should get down to business and put up some incredibly solid numbers.  He’s capable of batting .290 and stealing 30 or more bases, which cant be said for the other guys Melvin might think of batting atop the order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lopez occupy the 1 or 2 hole, and reap the rewards of a solid Arizona Diamondbacks line-up.

Lopez played 13 G at SS, 13 G at 3B, 17 G in the OF, and 101 at 2B.  Check your league settings because Lopez could be the ultimate fill-in.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Do the Dodgers get a deal done for Manny Ramirez?  If not Juan Pierre (OF) might become a bit more attractive with his huge contract floating around. However, Pierre’s name may add a couple bucks to his actual price tag, which you might care to avoid. 40 SB from someone who wont kill your batting average is always nice though.

Blake DeWitt (2B / 3B) has the inside line on the second base job over Mark Loretta.  He doesn’t bring anything particularly sexy to the table, but the kid can play.  The second and third eligibility helps.  All and all nothing overwhelming in Dodger-land.

San Francisco Giants

Lots of Fun in Giants camp! Pablo Sandoval (3B, 1B, C) is everyones favorite sleeper for the entirty of Fantasy Baseball for 2009.  He’s not a sleeper anymore, but the kid can play and did play 11 games at Catcher, 12 at third base, and 17 at first.  It looks like he’ll be playing third this year, but check your league settings.  Nothing is more annoying than finding out someone isn’t eligible for a position.  If he’s eligible for catcher in your league, snatch him the hell up.

Emmanuel Burriss (SS / 2B) should win the job over Kelly Frandsen, maybe.  Along with Burriss, Eugenio Velez (2B) has a shot of snagging that opening.  Velez will bring you ridiculous SB, and could be solid but is going to have issues matching Burriss defensively.  It’ll be itneresting to see how this plays out, as both Burriss and Velez should be able to get you a bunch of SB, assuming they win the job.

Cleveland Indians

Matt Laporta (OF / 1B) will go with the rookie rankings but hopefully he plays this year for the big club.

The Indians have quite a few guys with room for improvement and maturity, yet none of them really classify as sleepers. Shin-Soo Choo (OF / RF) looks darn good and had quite the season in just under 100 games for the tribe last year. The .309 BA is nice, but the .373 BABIP is ridiculous. His Line Drive percentage is nice and pretty above 20%, but .373 is ridiculous.  He got lucky, but he can still go and hit 20+ HR for the tribe this year, and he does still have some speed in the tank (enough for 10SB? Maybe)

Keep an eye on Ben Francisco as well, the other corner outfielder.

The Entire Indians Infield (DeRosa, Cabrera, Peralta, and Garko) have the ability to eclipse their dollar value / draft round, in 2009.  Not sleepers, but worth a look. I’m especially high on Cabrera and Garko, as the other two have gotten their fair share of pre-season hype.

Seattle Mariners

What a waste-land.  I’m not a fan of the Mariners, at all. Everytime they come to Toronto, hoards of japanese people come out and scream their faces off at Kenji Johjima and Ichiro Suzuki.  They’re like rockstars, and the 16-22 year old Japanese girls that scream for them act like their white peers at an All American Rejects concert.

Jeff Clement (C) isn’t a sleeper, but he should outperform his draft stock.

Florida Marlins

Much better, the Florida Marlins have some sleepers. Jeremy Hermida (RF) has all the tools to be great, not just good — but GREAT.  Most fantasy owners get pissed off when they read about sleepers for a couple years, and they just never pan out. Hermida falls into this group, the post hype sleeper group. 2008′s 28 percent strike-out rate is a weeeeeeeee bit concerning, but sometimes you just gotta trust your eyes and go with that sweet sweet swing.

Cameron Maybin (OF) should be good, not quite yet though — He’ll be hanging out with LaPorta in the “rookies who can make a difference” room.

John Baker (C), Oh how I like thee.  His outlook looks good, and he’ll be great value in the last round or two of your draft — If he flops, which he could well do, just cut bait.  Otherwise, I’m fixin’ on predictin’ 350-400 AB to go with 15 HR

Dallas McPherson (3B) should be good but the hype machine is starting it’s engines, and with the ridiculous amount of homers he’s put up in the Minors the past couple years — the experts are remembering just how much they LOVED McPherson 5 years ago.

New York Mets

The Mets’ outfield other than Beltran looks to have a good bit of talent floating around it. I’m generally against listing sleepers from big market teams, as ESPN tends to showcase the hell out of them but Ryan Church (OF) has been solid, but not spectacular for sometime now, and other than a broken brain looks good. With Church, you might get 20 HR, a handful of steals, and a guarenteed .275 average.  He’s quite serviceable in deeper leagues. The 20-25% K rate is concerning, but if he’s adding power while doing it — I’ll take it.

Daniel Murphy (OF / 2B? / 3b?) could make a big impact in fantasy circles this year. His .386 BABIP last year inflated his stats, but he’s still only 24 years old. Murphy can play just about anywhere, but will start the season qualifying only as an OF.  There’s a chance with the right set of circumstances that he snags eligibility at 2B and/or 3B.  If he comes out of camp as the starting second baseman, he’s value is going to be solid as all hell. His LD rate was a stupid-silly 33 percent last year, which makes that .386 BABIP not so ridiculous and while his K rate was 20+ percent last year — he should drop it down below 20 (if minor league stats have any influence whatsoever on MLB stats). If Murphy can steal 10 bases, which he’s more than capable of, he’ll be useful in all but the most shallow of leagues. If you consider him a sleeper, Murphy is top 5.

Jeremy Reed (OF) came over from Seattle, and the talent’s there.  He hasn’t managed to put it together, and his top-prospect status is long gone. Maybe he’ll react well to being out of Seattle and begin putting up the numbers once expected of him.

Washington Nationals

Their outfield is stacked with former top prospects, absolutely stacked.  I’m not sure if it’ll ever gell considering the attitude that’s out there but:

Lastings Milledge (OF) was the chosen one in the Mets farm system for a few years before coming over to the Nats.  As with all New York prospects, the great ones are blown up way too big, and the smaller ones get lost in the shadows to become great players. Milledge does have the talent though, as he can easily steal 25 bases to go along with his developing power.  Last Years 14 HR season should be improved upon, actually all of his numbers should be improved upon. If he can keep his LD rate above 20, and his K rate below it — he could outperform the massive hype surrounding him..lets hope.  He’s not a one dollar sleeper, and you’ll have to pay to get him but the potential is there.

Elijah Dukes (RF / OF) has more power than Milledge, but also has more issues.  If Dukes has 15 wives and each wife has 2 children, and each child has 3 Daddies,  how many children is Dukes really the father of? Dukes has all the talent in the world and if everything goes well he could smash his draft day value. Read this carefully: Elijah Dukes could reasonably go 30HR and 30SB, with a .275BA given he reaches about 600PA.

Josh Willingham (LF / OF) could get to 25 HR pretty easily, but keep in mind his BA isn’t pretty and he strikes out a hella-lot.

Jesus Flores (C) could be one to keep an eye on, but he’s not particularly a sleeper.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore and Mike Flanagan are doing a terrific job building their organization the right way — by fleecing other teams of their young talent.

Matt Weiters (C) cannot possibly be considered a sleeper, and he’ll join Laporta, Maybin, and Escobar in the Rookie Category.

Even Adam Jones (CF / OF), one of the nicest guys in baseball, isn’t particularly a sleeper.  He’ll improve upon his numbers of last year, and he’s a super prospect but you’ll probably have to pay some cash money to get him.  Jones has 20 HR pop in his bat as soon as this year, and on a team that loves to just go out and have fun — he should be fun to watch.  Throw in 10-15SB, and you’ve got yourself a ballplayer.

Felix Pie (LF / OF) will more than likely be a second half sleeper.  It may be worth it to draft him, but I’d wait a few months before grabbing him.  If your league is shallow, feel free to grab the speedy young OF whom the Cubs gave the Orioles for essentially nothing.  If he’s allowed to run free, expect a cheap source of stolen bases.

San Diego Padres

I’m not sure where I stand on Chase Headley (OF / 3B?). The Kid has all of the talent in the world, but is it too soon? Chase strikes out too damn much, 31.4% K Rate! but when he does hit the ball he’s a line-drive machine, 25% LD! The Homers aren’t there, but he’ll grow into it eventually — He’s a sleeper, but not one i’d like to have on my team unless I’ve got balls of steel. If Kouzmanoff gets hurt and Headley can move to third, we’ve got a whole new ball-game.

Edgar Gonzalez (2B) might be worth a look if not for that pesky David Eckstein.

Philadelphia Phillies

World Champs don’t produce sleepers.

Raul Ibanez (OF) might be worth a long, long, look though.  He’s no world champ — but he is a .290 hitter with power, who’s numbers have been skewed by Seattle’s awful ballpark.

Who know’s how he’ll adjust to NL pitching after 10 years in the AL, but he’s worth a very very long look.  He wont come for a buck, but i bet he outperforms his cost by at least 3 to 5 dollars.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Rookie Outfielders Andrew McCutchen (OF), Steve Pearce(OF), Jose Tabata(OF) could all make a difference in your fantasy league this year depending on its size.  They’re getting hucked into the Rookie category. I was thinking of putting Pearce here, but it’s easier to put him with the other two star prospects.

Really only Andy LaRoche (3B) sticks out as someone I’d genuinely like to have on my roster.  While Freddy Sanchez (2B) could put up a solid batting average, he’s too hit or miss.

Andy’s brother Adam LaRoche (1B) is primed for a breakout year but is in no way a sleeper.

Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus (SS) can boogey, and he’s won the starting shortstop gig. The Rangers were wise to sign Omar Vizquel (SS) just incase.  Andrus gets thrown in with the other rookies later, to a lesser extent.

Anyone in the Texas Line-Up should produce solid numbers, as Arlington is a  bloody Band-Box.

Take David Murphy (OF) if he takes the LF job, and all signs point to yessir — he’ll put up stellar numbers.

Chris Davis (1B / 3B) lost his position as a sleeper the day he was born, so please dont ask.

Tampa Bay Rays

I cant seem to find a sleeper here; eveyrone on their squad should probably perform up to par. Ben Zobrist (OF / SS) qualifies at shortstop and could well snag the right field job, but I still woulnd’t count on that many AB. His power seemingly came out of nowhere and with a 13% LD rate and a corresponding .255 BABIP, things dont look particularly solid moving forward. He’s got a solid walk rate (13%) which negates most of his 20% strike-out rate.  Hrmm, it’s interesting.

Matt Joyce (OF) who’s penciled in ahead of Zobrist at RF could provide you with solid power numbers to go with a beautifully awesome .260 AVG. Joyce strikes out about a quarter to a third of the time, but he’s a true masher. Against righties Joyce should put up solid numbers, and maybe your league undervalues him.

If you can get Joyce on the cheap, you’ll be incredibly happy as he’ll put up great numbers.  Just dont over-pay, mind you — what is overpaying for 30HR in 500 AB?

Keep his name on your cheat sheet and snag him if the time is right.

Boston Red Sox

There’s no sleepers on this team, who are we kidding. If Ortiz gets dead, Rocco Baldelli (OF / DH) should put up solid numbers.

Cincinatti Reds

Jay Bruce (OF) is a sleeper, sort of — I tend to think he’ll be overvalued come draft day but there’s no way to dismiss his raw talent.  He’ll be thrown in with the rookies as he compares best to them.

I like Jerry Hairston Jr (OF / SS) to be a solid source of steals for your middle infield, assuming he can hold off newly arrived masher Johnny Gomes (OF). If Gomes can get himself 350 AB, he seems to hit 20HR.  If he can land a full time gig, expect those numbers to go up in the Great American Bandbox. Striking out 30% of the time isn’t optimal, but if the HR come with it — The Reds will take it.

The whole Reds’ team should play well, with Encarnacion putting up a few more dollars than he’s worth along with Brandon Phillips.  There’s no reason to not take a Red this year.

Colorado Rockies

You’ve gotta take anyone with talent pretty serious in Colorado.

Ian Stewart (2b? / 3b?) has entered the hype machine and as of January, Garrett Atkins is in LF?? Stewart’s not a sleeper, but he should produce and strike out given playing time.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF) the 243 tooled player acquired in the Holliday deal should rake given the chance.  I have him in my top 5 sleepers.  The man swings at everything, in the zone or outside of it and he strikes out too damn much but whatever.

Sometimes swinging at everything works — oh wait, you have to make contact when you swing at everything? Shit.  Gonzalez is still in my top 5.

Kansas City Royals

Mark Teahen (OF / 2B) is a solid player, and a half decent corner outfielder.  He is not a Second Basemen, but if the Royals switch him to second base as the rumours indicate — he may well be useful. Optimally, Teahan would gain second base eligibility and then return to the outfield but we’ll see. Teahan had a down year last year, and he’s still striking out at a 23% clip — so buyer beware.

Big Fat Billy Butler (1B / DH) and Kila Ka’Ailhue (1B / DH) along with Mike Jacobs (1B) should all see time.  Butler was everyones favourite sleeper last year, and Jacobs can just straight up mash. 25 to 30 homers seems about right for Jacobs, considering all things — but you’ll lose out on the counting stats. Ka’Ailhue should be interesting — i’m not sure if he’s a sleeper at this point or not, but boy can he hit.

Ka’Ailhue would have been a huge addition to any team if not for the Mike Jacobs trade, and maybe he’ll still contribute to a lesser extent. Maybe the youngster can sit down with Jacobs and explain to him why it’s beneficial to Walk almost as much, if not more, than you strike out.  Everything is there except playing time.

Alberto Collaspo (2B) just as a side note, i really like Alberto Collapso and whenever playing Baseball Mogul 2007? I made sure to add him to my team — he always got good around 2009.  Computers rule!

Detroit Tigers

Nothing seems to pop out about the Tigers. Maybe Gerald Laird (C) away from Texas? No thanks. Nice line-up though.

Minnesota Twins

Alexi Casilla (2B) isn’t a sleeper but should put up solid stats. If people start snoozing on Delmon Young (OF), this might be the year.  I’d be more than willing to take a risk on Young, banking that he finally put stuff together in his head.  Young’s got all the talent in the world but like so many of these uber-talented top-prospects, maybe his work ethic isn’t quite there.  I’m not going to predict 20 HR for Young, but you should know incredibly early in the season whether or not he’s going to continue grounding balls harmlessly into the outfield.

Nick Puntu (UTIL / Everywhere) should also contribute.

Chicago White Sox

Should be interesting.  Josh Fields (3B) can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown he can hit, yet. If Jerry Owens (OF) takes the CF job he should be a huge source of steals and more than likely Runs — if he can get on base at a decent clip.

I’m a big fan of super utility man Wilson Betemit (1B/3B/14G @ SS) but whether or not he gets playing time is a different story. His strike out rate is an ugly 25%, but I’d still give him a chance.

New York Yankees

Welcome to the hype-machine. Robinson Cano (2B) will bounce back but the only real sleeper here is Nick Swisher (1B / OF), who could well be dealt.

Swisher hit .219 last year, which is awful. Swisher generally doesn’t hit that well, and expecting more than .260 is goofy but boy does he walk. Expect a nice little return to the .375 range for Swishers OBP, and he’ll regain his .840 OPS form.

Swisher was apparently one of the most unlucky players in 2008, and many are predicting a rebound.

Very rarely do you see a players LD rate go up, while his BABIP dips 50 pts. If Swisher can find a way to get full time playing time, he’s a top 5 sleeper. I just don’t know how he does that in a crowded Yankees outfield — mind you, it’s a crowded AGING Yankees outfield.