Bill Hall

If You Wanna Win, It’s Time To Pay Attention.

It’s that time of the year again, the annual dumping of contracts, better known as the dog days of August.  In a perfect world, players would sign contracts that compensate them based on their production and performance.

Unfortunately, mediocre teams sign mediocre players for not-so-mediocre sums of money to show their fans that they’re committed to winning.  Eventually these contracts become blockades that prevent them from competing for anything other than the first overall selection in the June Draft.

Thankfully, there’s a solution in most cases.  Uncompetitive teams place gaudy contracts on waivers and hope that another team’s desperate enough to make a claim, and if they’re lucky, a trade. Occasionally it makes sense to eat a large contract if it drastically increases your chances of a playoff birth.

Older proven players along with the youngsters that fill the void offer the best value you’ll get in a fantasy baseball league now that the fantasy baseball trade deadline has also come and gone.

Alex Rios is now a member of the White Sox, which opens the door for the beloved Travis Snider.  Snider’s still going to have his issues with strikeouts, but he absolutely mashed in AAA-Las Vegas (.337 AVG / .431 OBP / .633 SLG).  Snider led off his second ‘09 major league stint with an opposite field shot against Josh Beckett, but has also struck-out three times in two games.  If you’re in need of power, Snider should fulfill that need with every day ABs as promised by Jays’ manager, Cito Gaston:

Manager Cito Gaston said the team’s top prospect will play pretty much every day from here on out as they prepare him for 2010, and Snider feels he’s much more ready to handle the ups and downs of life in the majors than before. Canoe

Aubrey Huff is now a Detroit Tiger, although his role is still unclear.  Huff’s versatility should prove useful and he should settle into the DH-spot nicely.  How the Orioles address this situation will prove to be much more interesting.  Immediately, it seems as though Reimold will occupy the DH spot on a full time basis with super-utility man, Ty Wigginton, getting first-base at-bats.  Wigginton currently has first, third and outfield eligibility in all leagues; However in many leagues he’s amassed enough games at second and shortstop to qualify at MI as well.   Wigginton is always useful if he’s given a shot and in deeper leagues, the situation’s well worth monitoring.  The Orioles also recalled former top-prospect, Michael Aubrey. Aubrey doesn’t have the bat, but really reminds me of a Lyle Overbay -type player.  Obviously Lyle just proved that anyone can go on a tear and everyone’s worth monitoring.  Even though Felix Pie has continued to be a huge dissappointment, I’m still keeping my eyes peeled.

The Indians placed Trevor Crowe on the 15-Day DL and V-Mart’s still a Red Sock — Really, Pinch yourself.  It’s not a dream, he is a Beantowner — which opened up a spot in the line-up for Matt LaPorta.  Much like Travis Snider, LaPorta has absolutely destroyed AAA pitching.  Unlike Snider, LaPorta has focused on exactly what needed improvement.  LaPorta’s seen his K-Rate decline while raising his BB%, which is good for a promising 0.75BB/K ratio. With Jamey Carroll as his only competition for the left-field gig, LaPorta should get more than his fair share of playing time.  If you’re looking for a spark, I’d be hedging my bets towards LaPorta rather than Snider.

In Texas, the catcher’s spot just got that much more confusing.  Salty’s on the DL and while Taylor Teagarden’s been told that the job is his, the recent acquisition of Pudge should interest deep-leaguers.  A return to Arlington shouldn’t hurt and Rodriguez has always been one to raise his level of play for a late-season push, but we’re still talking very-deep leagues only.  The player of interest here, is Julio Borbon who has 8 SB and 13 Hits in 9 games.  Borbon definitely has the speed, but his base running skills still need refinement.  This is a situation you’ll definitely want to monitor as Nelson Cruz is slated to come of the DL today or tomorrow.  If Borbon can find a way to stick with the big club or manage a September call-up, he’ll be very useful in short stints.

St. Louis has taken a chance on John Smoltz.  Old Grey Beard Smoltz has sparked more discussion than his NFL Counterpart, Brett Favre (okay, maybe not that much).  In Boston, Smoltz was all over the place with an ERA over eight.  He was however, still striking people out while posting solid peripherals. This has definitely become a must-watch situation, with Smoltz recently suggesting he’d be better suited to start rather than set up Ryan Franklin.   A return to the National League could prove the cure to Smoltz’s ailment and where else could you find a potential late-season ace?  If you’re riding high in your head-to-head league, you’ve probably got 3 weeks before your first playoff game which would allow Smoltz to show his worth or give you time to cut-bait.

Milwaukee has cut ties with Bill Hall, trading him to Seattle to replace the nutty Adrian Beltre.  Hall’s not particularly interesting, McGehee’s still doing what he does, and the Mat Gamel-era isn’t all that far away.  Gamel should be called up as rosters expand and barring utter-insanity, should see plenty of games at 3B to close out the season.  Just how hard is it to get rid of one of these high-paid under-producing veterans?  Milwaukee will eat the entirety of Hall’s 2009 contract, along with 7.5 of the 8.4 Million owed to Hall in 2010!

With Willy Tavares hitting the DL, the Cincinnati Reds recalled outfielder Drew Stubbs who promptly hit a walk-off, game-winning, extra-innings home run.  Unfortunately, Stubbs probably won’t produce as advertised.  Stubbs’ 46 SBs in AAA are tantalizing, until you realize he’ll have issues getting on base.  It shouldn’t surprise you to see Stubbs strike-out more than 1/3rd of the time and how well his walk-rate will translate is still up in the air.  There’s definitely power-potential in Stubbs’ 6′4″ frame, but probably not in 2009.

There are a couple interesting moves that don’t particularly have fantasy implications.  Firstly, Vicente Padilla is now a Dodger with all of their recent pitching injuries.  In extremely deep leagues, there’s a shot that Padilla could contribute in wins and maybe ERA.  The strike-outs are long gone, but I’m sure there’s a league somewhere interested in him.

Gaby Sanchez was called up and VandenHurk optioned, but more importantly it appears as though Anibal Sanchez may be healthy.  With the Marlins back in the playoff race, there’s a shot that Sanchez could be quite useful down the stretch.  If Sanchez is back to throwing 95mph (as advertised), there’s definitely intrigue.

After waivers comes the expansion of rosters in September.  A lot of two or three category youngsters will get the call.  These players will definitely contribute in small stints based on match-ups.

Bill Hall

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Third Basemen

No Pedro Alvarez, Josh Vitters or Mike Moustakas in the Yahoo or ESPN Player Pool, looks like you’ll have to wait another year. There are plenty of solid keeper options at third base though, especially of the young and unproven variety.

Whether or not they’ll stick at third base, is a whole different ballgame however.  Currently Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Russell Martin, Mark DeRosa, Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez, Hank Blalock, Chase Headley and Jed Lowrie have third base eligibility in Yahoo Leagues, but they haven’t been included because I either don’t think they’ll stick or they’ll provide greater vlaue elsewhere.

Banking on Miguel Cabrera logging 15 Games at 3rd for the next 10 years is a bit iffy, and if you’re drafting Russell Martin — You’re playing him at catcher. A-Rod’s probably got a couple years at DH in him as well, which would warrant him a higher overall than positional rank.  He scoots ahead of Longoria in the overall ranks.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. David Wright – NY Mets – 26 - I thought he had another year to wait, but with Rodriguez’s injury, Wright’s the best third base option, and should continue stealing 15+ bases for the next 4 years.

2. Evan Longoria – TB Rays – 23 - Longoria’s a talent, but I’d expect somewhat of a sophomore slump this year. Blasphemy, I know. In the long run, he should provide you with 10 years of top-3 third basemen play.  A few more SB would be nice.

3. Alex Rodriguez – NY Yankees – 33 - Loses a few months to injury, but he’ll play well into his late 30’s. I’ll take 4 years of first-round talent over 8 years of 5th round talent, any day.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – WAS Nationals – 24 - It’s a tough choice between Zimmerman and Gordon. Gordon ends up being the better player, but Washington surrounds Zimmerman with more talent.

5. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 - Re-upped with Boston, and should produce at a high level for at least 5 more years.  There’s the possibility that Youkilis gets moved back to third to make room for Lars Anderson.

6. Alex Gordon – KC Royals – 25 - If Gordon wants to cash in on all that talent and become a superstar, 2009’s the year.  KC’s putting together a squad that can mash, and they’ll at least be fun to watch.

7. Edwin Encarnacion – CIN Reds – 26 – 2009 is the year Encarnacionn puts it together. I dont think he has the talent of a Zimmerman or Gordon, but the ballpark’s definitely in his favour.  I’d have no problem ranking Edwin above both Zimmerman and Gordon.

8. Aramis Ramirez – CHI Cubs – 30 - Same boat as Youkilis.

9. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 - I haven’t the slightest clue where Sandoval plays out his career, but his versatility can’t hurt.  There’s a good amount of risk associated with Sandoval, and I think you’ll probably have to overpay to get him in any keeper league.

10. Mark Reynolds – ARI Diamondbacks – 25 - Lots of power, not much average.  You’re getting what you pay for.

11. Chipper Jones – ATL Braves – 36 - Where to put Chipper? He can’t stay healthy, and he’s getting old.  He did post his best batting average ever as a 35 year old.  You’ve probably got two years of top-5 third basemen, and 1 year old top-10.  Adjust your rankings based on the depth of your league.

12. Garrett Atkins – COL Rockies – 29 - If Atkins stays in Colorado, he’s probably two spots higher.  Unfortunately, I can’t see him sticking around the mile-high city. Best case scenario: Atkins plays the year out at 3rd base, and eventually gets moved to first base — but he gets to stay in Colorado.  Worst Case: Atkins gets traded to a not-so-hitter-friendly park.

13. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - His next five years could be 30HR, 25HR, 8HR, 17HR, 32HR.  It’s really two bad that he was such a terrible second basemen.  The Marlins are stacked with young talent, so he should continue to put up R & RBI numbers.  There’s also the chance that Florida cleans house again.

14. Adrian Beltre – SEA Mariners – 29 - I can’t believe he’s only 29. He’s been underachieving for almost 10 years now!  Taking a peek at Beltre’s numbers is quite enjoyable. In a purely baseball sense, a sense that takes into account his stellar defense, the Mariners really didn’t waste that massive wad of cash-money signing Beltre.  Now, if only someone could get on base for him.

15. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Who knows what he develops into. He’s ceilings probably 7th or 8th, and his basement is about Joe Crede.

16. Aubrey Huff – BAL Orioles – 32 – Eligibility is going to be a problem going forth.

17. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 – Same boat as Stewart.  Wood’s massive power potential at the shortstop position is worth the risk, but at the third base position 30 HR isn’t all that uncommon.

18. Mat Gamel – MIL Brewers – 23 – His defense is getting better, and he’s almost a below average third baseman.  I don’t know if he’ll stick at third, but he’s got a whoooole lotta potential.

19. Josh Fields – CHI White Sox – 26 – This could be Gamel four years from now.  Fields has got a boatload of potential, and I’d be taking a chance on him.  All of the reports out of Spring Training are encouraging.

20. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 – I probably screwed up this Figgins ranking, but it’s impossible to judge atypical performers in keeper leagues.  In a keeper league, you can’t really gameplan around Figgins by drafting a power-hitting MI to offset Figgins’ lack of power from a typical HR-hitting position. You just want to put together the best team without getting too cute.  With Figgins’ injury history, and almost all of his value coming from speed — I’d  avoid him as my third baseman.

21. Brett Wallace – STL Cardinals – 22 – Ooooh, Ahhhh! Baseball America has him only six spots lower than the mucho-hyped-upped-o, Mat Gamel.  Wallace comes in at the 40th best prospect, and a whole lotta power potential.  Glaus is getting old, and who knows how long Freese can hold Wallace off.  Well worth the risk at this point.

22. Kevin Kouzmanoff – SD Padres – 27 - I have an unhealthy hatred for San Diego third basemen.  I think it’s because I sat on Sean Burroughs for so long. Anyways, here’s a tidbit about Burroughs: After winning the league little world series, a team coached by his father and 1974 AL MVP, Jeff Burroughs; Sean was invited onto David Letterman.  When asked what his dream job was, instead of coming up with the obvious answer of:  “follow in my dad’s footsteps and become a ball player,” Burroughs told Letterman he wanted to be a gynecologist. Kids say the darndest things.  Anyways, I do not want the Kouz on my team.

23. Troy Glaus – STL Cardinals – 32 - Still has a few good years left in him, 2009 isn’t one of those years. He’s got Wallace breathing down his neck, too.

24. Carlos Guillen – DET Tigers – 33 – Detroit will find a spot for Guillen to play, and Guillen should produce for a couple more years.

25. Andy LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 25 - Now that he’s with his brother, and hopefully relaxed — LaRoche is probably a very profitable risk to take heading into 2009.

26. Joe Crede – MIN Twins – 30 – Signed a one-year deal with the Twins.

27. Dayan Viciedo – CHI White Sox – 20 – Cuba, Cuba.  Should be solid, if/when Josh Fields fails.  Even if Fields succeeds, Viciedo will probably snag a spot in the outfield.  At the very least, keep an eye on him.

28. Melvin Mora – BAL Orioles – 37 – I couldn’t believe that Mora was 37 Years old.  Maybe 1 or 2 seasons of 90+ RBI left in ‘em.

29. Bill Hall – MIL Brewers – 29 - Bill Hall should be in his prime, he’s not.  He’s having trouble making contact, let alone smash-killing.  With Gamel breathing down his neck, maybe this year’s the year.

30. Matt Tuiasosopo – SEA Mariners – Solid youngster, you might have to wait a couple years.  I dont see him being anything special though.

31. Mike Lowell – BOS Red Sox – 35

32. Wilson Betemit – CHI White Sox – 27

33. Ty Wigginton – BAL Orioles – 31

34. Jose Bautista – TOR Jays – 28

35. Jeff Keppinger – HOU Astros – 28

36. Brian Buscher – MIN Twins – 27

37. Conor Gillaspie – SF Giants – 21 – I think Gillaspie flops.  Maybe you want to move him above Tuiasosopo, but I dont.

38. Russell Branyan – SEA Mariners – 33

38. Jack Hannahan – OAK Athletics – 29

39. Eric Chavez – OAK Athletics – 31

40. Casey Blake – LA Dodgers – 35

41. Scott Rolen – TOR Blue Jays – 33

Unfortunately, I’m sick as a dog, and the regular season is only a few days ago — So if these seemed rushed, they are.

Bill Hall

The Hype Machine Eats Mat Gamel – 3B – Brew Crew

Mat Gamel, The Heir Apparent? The Next Ryan Braun?

As a 23 year old, Gamel’s not quite to the point where he’s too old for Double-A but he’s getting close. For all you perverts out there, 23 in double-A is like 23 in women’s tennis: they just aren’t as sexy anymore.

In 2008, Gamel managed to grab a cup of coffee in both triple-A (5 Games) and the Show (2 Games). The sample size is obviously far too small for any reasonable analysis, however striking out 10 times in 21 AB in AAA leads me to believe he is indeed a human, and may have been pressing.

How Did Gamel Fair in AA? (Ryan Braun Mashed in Double-A and turned into an all-star. Sound Logic, Right?)

The internet’s ablaze with comparisons between Ryan Braun and Mat Gamel, all because they mashed AA pitching while proving that the mantra “No Glove, No Love” applies to players not just named, Roberto Alomar.

Thanks to The Baseball Cube, we can compare their Minor League statistics:

Player Name	Stat Type	Bavg	Obp	Slg	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HR	2B	R	RBI	SB
Ryan Braun	MLB	.301	.350	.588	938	264	1062	183	320	65	13	71	203	29	9	71	241	0.27	0.25	0.69	0.77	0.11
Mat Gamel	MLB	.500	.500	1.000	1500	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ryan Braun	Minor	.313	.375	.572	947	199	767	131	240	61	6	42	144	34	12	69	151	0.21	0.31	0.66	0.72	0.17
Mat Gamel	Minor	.305	.375	.489	864	447	1710	278	522	115	22	52	285	36	20	184	358	0.12	0.26	0.62	0.64	0.08

Statistics obviously, courtesy of the baseball cube.

Gamel’s played more games in this chart, as I haven’t included Ryan Braun’s college career. With that said, it’s pretty clear to see that Ryan Braun put up superior power and speed numbers than Mat Gamel.   With that said however, lets take a look at the Double-A seasons each had as a 22-year old:

Braun’s Line: .303 AVG/.367 OBP/.589 SLG / .956 OPS which translated into 15 HR in 59 Games.  You also must remember Braun spent 59 Games in High-A ball prior to being called up to Double-A in 2006.

Gamel’s Line: .329 AVG / .395 OBP / .537 SLG / .932 OPS which translated into 19HR in 127 G.

It’s fairly clear that Mat Gamel is lagging behind Ryan Braun in the power department, but not that far. It would be wise to assume, that like Braun, Gamel would start 2009 out in Triple-A.

So Gamel’s Got The Stick, What’s Stopping Him From Being TEH AWESOME?!

Right now, it appears as though Hall will break camp with the starting third base gig.  The Brewers have a back-up plan in Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell, both of which are proven commodities. So how badly will Bill Hall have to shit the bed, and how great will Gamel have to be?

When Ryan Braun got called up, he was slugging at a .700 clip in AAA.  If Gamel does this, he’ll get called up regardless of whether or not Hall finds his stroke.  Realistically, Gamel won’t do this because he is not one of the chosen people. If Gamel can maintain his current production against Triple-A pitching, he should be fine. It’s generally said that Double-A, and your adjustment to Double-A, is the make or break portion of your MiLB career.

It would serve Mat Gamel well to cut down on his near 21% K rate, but a 10% BB rate helps the medicine go down a bit easier. When Gamel’s doubles power translate into big league home run power, he’ll be dangerous.

Bill James’ robot has Gamel coming in at 150 Games in the 2009 season, which seems a bit ridiculous. Here’s the full-line:

150 Games, 539 AB, 35Doubles, 18 HR, 87 R, 89RBI, .302 AVG, 8 SB. 23.6 K%, 8.8 BB% and an OBP of .364.

Bill James is a brighter man than I, but these numbers seem a bit ridiculous; especially when you consider his projection model has Bill Hall down for 418 AB.

The Defense, It’s Always the Defense.

Gamel’s defense is awful, and while he’s improving, it’s a stretch to say that he’ll develop into even a below average third baseman.

Every Article written on Gamel explains why his defense is awful:

Fangraphs: It’s Almost Gamel Time

Diamond Cutter: Gamel’s Scouting Report

Sportsbubbler: Gamel #3 Brewers Prospect

Minorleagueball: Gamel, Again.

Hardballtimes: Yah, It’s Bad

Conclusion:

If Gamel gets called up, he’ll play.  The Brewers won’t call him up simply to sit on the bench while he could be refining his glove-work in Triple-A.

The problem is whether or not Gamel will get the call.  At this point, there’s no way he could step into the starting third base role without massive improvements over the winter and first month or two of the MiLB season.

If someone goes down in the outfield, definitely pounce.

If you’re sitting around watching a Brewers game and Ryan Braun starts taking grounders at third again, definitely pounce.

I’m just not sure that Gamel gets reps at third even if Hall plays terribly.

I don’t think I’d draft Gamel, but I’d definitely be the first guy on a WW claim for him because as I said, if he gets the call — he’ll play.

Bill Hall

Bill Hall’s Toe Tag: How Did This Get So Long? Why Didn’t I Mention Mat Gamel?

The Steroid Era has skewed the common perception of the good ol’ ball-player forever. Anyone associated with baseball, whether it be a writer or a fan, is stuck in limbo. Stuck, waiting for a definitive answer that will never come.

A “Career Year” during the steroid era is now almost impossible to attribute to the values our society preaches: hard work, patience and perseverance. It may be laziness on behalf of the baseball fan to just assume that a player is guilty of taking performance enhancing drugs (PEDs); but the easiest answer is most often the correct answer.

Bill Hall - jodieandlarry.flickr

With that said, onto The Mess That Is Bill Hall’s Career:

RECENT INJURIES:

Considering Hall is fighting for his job tooth and nail, he probably didn’t want to start out 2009 with a torn right calf on the first day of camp. The initial reports out of Brewers’ camp figured upon a 4-6 week recovery period, which would probably keep Hall out of the opening day line-up and start him down in Triple-A for some seasoning. Recent reports are hinting that while the time-table remains the same, Hall is feeling quite optimistic about an early return and should resume hitting shortly.

POWER SURGE:

In 2006, Bill Hall hit 35 HR, Scored 101 Runs, Drove in 85 batters, stole 8 bases, and hit .270.  The numbers surrounding such a power surge, should be examined — So, we will.

It’s pretty clear that Hall’s power-surge had it’s gestation period during the 2005 season as he managed to slug at a .495 clip. With this number in mind, it’s not that radical to assume that he would follow it up with a career year of 35HR while slugging .553.  However, aside from these two years, there is nothing else in Bill Hall’s professional career that shows his ceiling  is anything more than slugging at a .450 mark.

So I’m quick to judge: Steroids, is the answer.

In 2007, Bill Hall signed a delicious 4-Year/24M dollar contract. The old way of thinking dictates that Hall, now financially sound for life, simply lost the desire to play baseball. Yet the steroid question looms: Did Bill Hall just make himself 24 Million Dollars by sticking a needle in his ass for a year and a half?

We’re not Baseball-Philosophers though, we only care about statistics.  So the next logical set of questions are:

1. If Bill Hall lost the desire to improve, has his pride suffered enough to warrant a comeback of sorts? or…
2. If Bill Hall used PEDs to improve his performance, has his pride or pocketbook suffered enough to warrant a return to his mischievous ways?

We’d be fooling ourselves if we believed that there weren’t undetectable PEDs available to any player that wanted them.  Even after A-Rod’s recent omission of  ” I attained steroids from a cousin in the Dominican, and I didn’t know what it was…” — I refuse to believe that ALL baseball players are idiots.  If someone wants to inject themselves with an undetectable steroid, they’ll find a way to make it happen.

What Does The Future Hold for Bill Hall?

Hall underwent LASIK surgery to improve his vision this off-season; which has the benefit of removing annoying-ass contacts from the equation, in addition to helping you see better — duh.  In sports like baseball, where a batter is turning his head quickly to adjust to the pitch or a fly-ball, LASIK has been shown to help.  There’s an article on Denard Span and his LASIK surgery here.

Whether or not this can help Bill Hall’s consistently ridiculous 25-30% K is debatable.  Even during Hall’s banner year of 2006, he struck out a third of the time while walking less than 10 percent of the time. The difference was power. Hall had never posted a SLG percentage of .550, and he certainly hadn’t come close to his isolated power statistic (ISO) of .283.

The power came from a drastic change in plate approach. Hall has maintained a relatively stable line-drive rate throughout his career, posting a high of 24% in 2005 and a low of 19.1% in his 2006 season. The change comes from the amount of fly-balls and ground balls Hall hit. More specifically, the ratio of Ground balls to Fly balls (GB/FB).  Prior to 2006, Bill Hall hit 1.15 (2004) to 1.20 (2005) ground balls for every fly ball.  In 2006, Hall almost completely reversed the percentages and hit .69 Ground balls for every Fly ball.

Combine these findings with Bill Hall’s ridiculous 19.4% HR / FB ratio in 2006, and we have an issue.  Hall’s HR/FB plummeted after the 2006 season and has since regressed to his career average of between 12-13 percent.

Bill Hall’s competition mainly comes from Mat Gamel, who’s an incredibly intriguing prospect at this point.  I must stress the word prospect, however.  Hall is going to have a repeat of last year’s terrible, inexplicable, .225 BA and sub-.300 OBP for Gamel to get a shot. Unless Gamel comes out and pulls a Ryan Braun, slugging AAA pitching at a .709 Clip for first couple months of the season.

In the end, you’re not going to have to pay that much to grab Bill Hall.  With last year’s production, I’d imagine he’d be heading for the last round of your draft. When you consider the hype that a “30-HR potential” prospect brings to the waiver-wire; Bill Hall might just be a steal. You’ll also know fairly quickly whether or not Hall will excel or flop, which leaves the door open for snagging that prospect who has “30-HR Potential” — It might just be Mat Gamel.

Realistically in deeper leagues, or leagues based in Milwaukee — You may want to avoid Hall.

Bill Hall

2009 Fantasy Baseball Sleepers By Team

Fantasy Baseball has its share of guys drafted in the late rounds, or picked up for a dollar that really pan out.  You’re generally not going to get anyone who absolutely kills it for a buck, or in the last round, unless you’re in a 10-12 team default league.  But here are some guy’s that’ll fill in nicely.

Minor Leaguers / Hot Prospects will have their own list, so they are excluded from this one.

Position Players

Anaheim Angels

Kendry Morales (1b) came over from Cuba in 2005 with a boatload of hype, and then proceeded to become spectacularly average.  The Fantasy World was abuzz just a few years ago about the Angels’ corner infielders, Dallas McPherson and Kendry Morales.  Then, they just stopped maturing, and when called up couldn’t produce.  None the less, Morales has had an incredible winterball season and obviously the talent is there.  Power hitting first basemen aren’t going to be gotten for a buck, but he’ll be cheaper come draft day.  Hopefully the Angels stay with Morales and resist the temptation to sign a first baseman.  Morales will produce and 25HR, 85RBI, 75R, and a .270 AVG seems reasonable.

Houston Astros

J.R. Towles (C) came into last year as the second hot catching prospect behind Soto. While Soto excelled as a major league backstop, Towles really shit the bed.  It Wouldn’t be out of the question to see Towles hit 15-20 HR, and Bill James has him hitting 17HR. Keep an eye on the starting Catcher’s job as Toby Hall was recently brought in to clean up the mess if Towles struggled.

Oakland Athletics

There’s going to be some value here, the problem is there are a lot of players around the same talent level fighting for jobs.

Ryan Sweeney (CF) wins the starting CF job, and has the possibility of going 15HR, 15SB.

Travis Buck (RF) has a tonne of talent, and flopped horribly last year.  He’s a top-tier young player that should develop power to go along with his solid batting eye.  As with all the stupid Athletics — Buck walks a lot and strikes out more.

Eric Patterson’s (OF /2B) AAA averages of .300+ have not translated well to the big leagues.  The Athletics acquired Patterson in the Harden deal, and will eventually end up with a solid player.  He’s got speed and, above all, second base eligibility.  If the Athletics can find a place for Patterson, he’ll be worth the dollar or two you’ll have to spend on him. His MLB strike-out rate isn’t a pretty sight though, so lets just hope he can drop it below 20%.

Daric Barton (1B) is yet another On Base Machine in the Oakland Athletics system.  He hit .347 in 84 PA in 2007, and then proceeded to stink up the joint (AAA and MLB) in 2008. Barton should have the inside gig on the first base job, with Jason Giambi as the DH.  If he continues to stink it up though; Giambi will move to first with Cust to DH which opens up the outfield for the two names above (Patterson or Buck).

Toronto Blue Jays

Travis Snider (OF / 1B) probably wont come as cheap as I’d like, but he should put up a solid rookie/sophmore season.  He came up for a cup of coffee in 2008, and impressed.  Generally listed among everyones top 10 MLB prospects, Snider is only 21 and has flown through the Jays system.  In limited action in 2008, he hit .300 with a couple dingers. There’s always the possibility the Jays start Snider off in the minors and keep him there for a good chunk, to save cash in the long run.  If Snider can keep ahold of the starting gig for the entire season, 20 HR aren’t out of the question.

While Snider may have more future potential, Adam Lind (OF) looks primed for a solid and productive 2009 campaign.  The Jays babied Lind quite a bit as he was coming through the system, and many Jays fans wanted Lind to stick with the big club a year earlier than he did.  Adam Lind has a realistic shot of hitting between .290 and .305 and, while his power numbers are sick-awesome, he should get to 20-25 HR on the season.  Lind brings incredible value to the table, and should be cheap come draft day.

Atlanta Braves

Josh Anderson(CF) will find a place to play in 2009, he’s gots-ta.  Anderson has quick-fast feet and should steal plenty of bases, cheaply.  He’ll hopefully get on-base somewhere between 33-35 percent of the time and could steal 35-40 bases this year if given the chance. Gregor Blanco and Brandon Jones sit ahead of him, both of which have hopes and dreams of their own.  Anderson should be able to snake the starting CF job away from Blanco.  Anderson’s one of my favourites going into the season.

Martin Prado (UTIL) is a second baseman by trade, but has filled in for Chipper Jones and will continue to fill in at third whenever Jones goes down.  While Prado doesn’t have a starting gig, he’s definitely someone to keep an eye on.  His .320 batting average last year was a result of a silly-stupid .360 BABIP but he appears to be a legitimate .290 – .300 hitter with not much else.  He gets on base, and has a good LD%.

Casey Kotchman will outperform his value, but by no means is he a sleeper.

Milwaukee Brewers

Bill Hall (3B) hit 290 in 2005, and everything was looking up. Then his strike out rates went as follows, presented with the corresponding averages: 2005 20 K%, .291  AVG, 2006 30 K%, .270 AVG, 2007 28 K%, .254 AVG, 2008 31 K%, .225 AVG.  To expect things from Hall is nutty, but if he can just manage to keep that bloody K percentage down to even 23-25%, he’ll be useful.

Anyone know if Alcides Escobar can play a solid third-base?

St. Louis Cardinals

Khalil Greene (SS). I like Greene this year, and I’m crazy for it.  It’s one of those doesn’t make sense gut feelings, that will either win you or lose you a fantasy league. Maybe he hits .260 and pulls his typical week with 5 HR, 4 Weeks with 0 HR type season.

David Freese (3B) went from three years of high and low A ball with the Padres to killing in triple A with the Cardinals.  Something smells fishy, but he’s listed as the guy behind Glaus.

Chicago Cubs

Mike Fontenot (2B) is the closest thing to a sleeper on this team, and who knows if he’ll out-perform his value.  He deserves to start over Aaron Miles, but weird shit happens in the windy city.  Keep an eye on this little situation.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Felipe Lopez (2B) will be filling the void at second left by Orlando Hudson, the O-Dog. I’m pretty high on Lopez, but he’s got some attitude issues.  Lopez probably makes my list of top 10 sleepers going into 2009. He should get down to business and put up some incredibly solid numbers.  He’s capable of batting .290 and stealing 30 or more bases, which cant be said for the other guys Melvin might think of batting atop the order. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Lopez occupy the 1 or 2 hole, and reap the rewards of a solid Arizona Diamondbacks line-up.

Lopez played 13 G at SS, 13 G at 3B, 17 G in the OF, and 101 at 2B.  Check your league settings because Lopez could be the ultimate fill-in.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Do the Dodgers get a deal done for Manny Ramirez?  If not Juan Pierre (OF) might become a bit more attractive with his huge contract floating around. However, Pierre’s name may add a couple bucks to his actual price tag, which you might care to avoid. 40 SB from someone who wont kill your batting average is always nice though.

Blake DeWitt (2B / 3B) has the inside line on the second base job over Mark Loretta.  He doesn’t bring anything particularly sexy to the table, but the kid can play.  The second and third eligibility helps.  All and all nothing overwhelming in Dodger-land.

San Francisco Giants

Lots of Fun in Giants camp! Pablo Sandoval (3B, 1B, C) is everyones favorite sleeper for the entirty of Fantasy Baseball for 2009.  He’s not a sleeper anymore, but the kid can play and did play 11 games at Catcher, 12 at third base, and 17 at first.  It looks like he’ll be playing third this year, but check your league settings.  Nothing is more annoying than finding out someone isn’t eligible for a position.  If he’s eligible for catcher in your league, snatch him the hell up.

Emmanuel Burriss (SS / 2B) should win the job over Kelly Frandsen, maybe.  Along with Burriss, Eugenio Velez (2B) has a shot of snagging that opening.  Velez will bring you ridiculous SB, and could be solid but is going to have issues matching Burriss defensively.  It’ll be itneresting to see how this plays out, as both Burriss and Velez should be able to get you a bunch of SB, assuming they win the job.

Cleveland Indians

Matt Laporta (OF / 1B) will go with the rookie rankings but hopefully he plays this year for the big club.

The Indians have quite a few guys with room for improvement and maturity, yet none of them really classify as sleepers. Shin-Soo Choo (OF / RF) looks darn good and had quite the season in just under 100 games for the tribe last year. The .309 BA is nice, but the .373 BABIP is ridiculous. His Line Drive percentage is nice and pretty above 20%, but .373 is ridiculous.  He got lucky, but he can still go and hit 20+ HR for the tribe this year, and he does still have some speed in the tank (enough for 10SB? Maybe)

Keep an eye on Ben Francisco as well, the other corner outfielder.

The Entire Indians Infield (DeRosa, Cabrera, Peralta, and Garko) have the ability to eclipse their dollar value / draft round, in 2009.  Not sleepers, but worth a look. I’m especially high on Cabrera and Garko, as the other two have gotten their fair share of pre-season hype.

Seattle Mariners

What a waste-land.  I’m not a fan of the Mariners, at all. Everytime they come to Toronto, hoards of japanese people come out and scream their faces off at Kenji Johjima and Ichiro Suzuki.  They’re like rockstars, and the 16-22 year old Japanese girls that scream for them act like their white peers at an All American Rejects concert.

Jeff Clement (C) isn’t a sleeper, but he should outperform his draft stock.

Florida Marlins

Much better, the Florida Marlins have some sleepers. Jeremy Hermida (RF) has all the tools to be great, not just good — but GREAT.  Most fantasy owners get pissed off when they read about sleepers for a couple years, and they just never pan out. Hermida falls into this group, the post hype sleeper group. 2008’s 28 percent strike-out rate is a weeeeeeeee bit concerning, but sometimes you just gotta trust your eyes and go with that sweet sweet swing.

Cameron Maybin (OF) should be good, not quite yet though — He’ll be hanging out with LaPorta in the “rookies who can make a difference” room.

John Baker (C), Oh how I like thee.  His outlook looks good, and he’ll be great value in the last round or two of your draft — If he flops, which he could well do, just cut bait.  Otherwise, I’m fixin’ on predictin’ 350-400 AB to go with 15 HR

Dallas McPherson (3B) should be good but the hype machine is starting it’s engines, and with the ridiculous amount of homers he’s put up in the Minors the past couple years — the experts are remembering just how much they LOVED McPherson 5 years ago.

New York Mets

The Mets’ outfield other than Beltran looks to have a good bit of talent floating around it. I’m generally against listing sleepers from big market teams, as ESPN tends to showcase the hell out of them but Ryan Church (OF) has been solid, but not spectacular for sometime now, and other than a broken brain looks good. With Church, you might get 20 HR, a handful of steals, and a guarenteed .275 average.  He’s quite serviceable in deeper leagues. The 20-25% K rate is concerning, but if he’s adding power while doing it — I’ll take it.

Daniel Murphy (OF / 2B? / 3b?) could make a big impact in fantasy circles this year. His .386 BABIP last year inflated his stats, but he’s still only 24 years old. Murphy can play just about anywhere, but will start the season qualifying only as an OF.  There’s a chance with the right set of circumstances that he snags eligibility at 2B and/or 3B.  If he comes out of camp as the starting second baseman, he’s value is going to be solid as all hell. His LD rate was a stupid-silly 33 percent last year, which makes that .386 BABIP not so ridiculous and while his K rate was 20+ percent last year — he should drop it down below 20 (if minor league stats have any influence whatsoever on MLB stats). If Murphy can steal 10 bases, which he’s more than capable of, he’ll be useful in all but the most shallow of leagues. If you consider him a sleeper, Murphy is top 5.

Jeremy Reed (OF) came over from Seattle, and the talent’s there.  He hasn’t managed to put it together, and his top-prospect status is long gone. Maybe he’ll react well to being out of Seattle and begin putting up the numbers once expected of him.

Washington Nationals

Their outfield is stacked with former top prospects, absolutely stacked.  I’m not sure if it’ll ever gell considering the attitude that’s out there but:

Lastings Milledge (OF) was the chosen one in the Mets farm system for a few years before coming over to the Nats.  As with all New York prospects, the great ones are blown up way too big, and the smaller ones get lost in the shadows to become great players. Milledge does have the talent though, as he can easily steal 25 bases to go along with his developing power.  Last Years 14 HR season should be improved upon, actually all of his numbers should be improved upon. If he can keep his LD rate above 20, and his K rate below it — he could outperform the massive hype surrounding him..lets hope.  He’s not a one dollar sleeper, and you’ll have to pay to get him but the potential is there.

Elijah Dukes (RF / OF) has more power than Milledge, but also has more issues.  If Dukes has 15 wives and each wife has 2 children, and each child has 3 Daddies,  how many children is Dukes really the father of? Dukes has all the talent in the world and if everything goes well he could smash his draft day value. Read this carefully: Elijah Dukes could reasonably go 30HR and 30SB, with a .275BA given he reaches about 600PA.

Josh Willingham (LF / OF) could get to 25 HR pretty easily, but keep in mind his BA isn’t pretty and he strikes out a hella-lot.

Jesus Flores (C) could be one to keep an eye on, but he’s not particularly a sleeper.

Baltimore Orioles

Baltimore and Mike Flanagan are doing a terrific job building their organization the right way — by fleecing other teams of their young talent.

Matt Weiters (C) cannot possibly be considered a sleeper, and he’ll join Laporta, Maybin, and Escobar in the Rookie Category.

Even Adam Jones (CF / OF), one of the nicest guys in baseball, isn’t particularly a sleeper.  He’ll improve upon his numbers of last year, and he’s a super prospect but you’ll probably have to pay some cash money to get him.  Jones has 20 HR pop in his bat as soon as this year, and on a team that loves to just go out and have fun — he should be fun to watch.  Throw in 10-15SB, and you’ve got yourself a ballplayer.

Felix Pie (LF / OF) will more than likely be a second half sleeper.  It may be worth it to draft him, but I’d wait a few months before grabbing him.  If your league is shallow, feel free to grab the speedy young OF whom the Cubs gave the Orioles for essentially nothing.  If he’s allowed to run free, expect a cheap source of stolen bases.

San Diego Padres

I’m not sure where I stand on Chase Headley (OF / 3B?). The Kid has all of the talent in the world, but is it too soon? Chase strikes out too damn much, 31.4% K Rate! but when he does hit the ball he’s a line-drive machine, 25% LD! The Homers aren’t there, but he’ll grow into it eventually — He’s a sleeper, but not one i’d like to have on my team unless I’ve got balls of steel. If Kouzmanoff gets hurt and Headley can move to third, we’ve got a whole new ball-game.

Edgar Gonzalez (2B) might be worth a look if not for that pesky David Eckstein.

Philadelphia Phillies

World Champs don’t produce sleepers.

Raul Ibanez (OF) might be worth a long, long, look though.  He’s no world champ — but he is a .290 hitter with power, who’s numbers have been skewed by Seattle’s awful ballpark.

Who know’s how he’ll adjust to NL pitching after 10 years in the AL, but he’s worth a very very long look.  He wont come for a buck, but i bet he outperforms his cost by at least 3 to 5 dollars.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Rookie Outfielders Andrew McCutchen (OF), Steve Pearce(OF), Jose Tabata(OF) could all make a difference in your fantasy league this year depending on its size.  They’re getting hucked into the Rookie category. I was thinking of putting Pearce here, but it’s easier to put him with the other two star prospects.

Really only Andy LaRoche (3B) sticks out as someone I’d genuinely like to have on my roster.  While Freddy Sanchez (2B) could put up a solid batting average, he’s too hit or miss.

Andy’s brother Adam LaRoche (1B) is primed for a breakout year but is in no way a sleeper.

Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus (SS) can boogey, and he’s won the starting shortstop gig. The Rangers were wise to sign Omar Vizquel (SS) just incase.  Andrus gets thrown in with the other rookies later, to a lesser extent.

Anyone in the Texas Line-Up should produce solid numbers, as Arlington is a  bloody Band-Box.

Take David Murphy (OF) if he takes the LF job, and all signs point to yessir — he’ll put up stellar numbers.

Chris Davis (1B / 3B) lost his position as a sleeper the day he was born, so please dont ask.

Tampa Bay Rays

I cant seem to find a sleeper here; eveyrone on their squad should probably perform up to par. Ben Zobrist (OF / SS) qualifies at shortstop and could well snag the right field job, but I still woulnd’t count on that many AB. His power seemingly came out of nowhere and with a 13% LD rate and a corresponding .255 BABIP, things dont look particularly solid moving forward. He’s got a solid walk rate (13%) which negates most of his 20% strike-out rate.  Hrmm, it’s interesting.

Matt Joyce (OF) who’s penciled in ahead of Zobrist at RF could provide you with solid power numbers to go with a beautifully awesome .260 AVG. Joyce strikes out about a quarter to a third of the time, but he’s a true masher. Against righties Joyce should put up solid numbers, and maybe your league undervalues him.

If you can get Joyce on the cheap, you’ll be incredibly happy as he’ll put up great numbers.  Just dont over-pay, mind you — what is overpaying for 30HR in 500 AB?

Keep his name on your cheat sheet and snag him if the time is right.

Boston Red Sox

There’s no sleepers on this team, who are we kidding. If Ortiz gets dead, Rocco Baldelli (OF / DH) should put up solid numbers.

Cincinatti Reds

Jay Bruce (OF) is a sleeper, sort of — I tend to think he’ll be overvalued come draft day but there’s no way to dismiss his raw talent.  He’ll be thrown in with the rookies as he compares best to them.

I like Jerry Hairston Jr (OF / SS) to be a solid source of steals for your middle infield, assuming he can hold off newly arrived masher Johnny Gomes (OF). If Gomes can get himself 350 AB, he seems to hit 20HR.  If he can land a full time gig, expect those numbers to go up in the Great American Bandbox. Striking out 30% of the time isn’t optimal, but if the HR come with it — The Reds will take it.

The whole Reds’ team should play well, with Encarnacion putting up a few more dollars than he’s worth along with Brandon Phillips.  There’s no reason to not take a Red this year.

Colorado Rockies

You’ve gotta take anyone with talent pretty serious in Colorado.

Ian Stewart (2b? / 3b?) has entered the hype machine and as of January, Garrett Atkins is in LF?? Stewart’s not a sleeper, but he should produce and strike out given playing time.

Carlos Gonzalez (OF) the 243 tooled player acquired in the Holliday deal should rake given the chance.  I have him in my top 5 sleepers.  The man swings at everything, in the zone or outside of it and he strikes out too damn much but whatever.

Sometimes swinging at everything works — oh wait, you have to make contact when you swing at everything? Shit.  Gonzalez is still in my top 5.

Kansas City Royals

Mark Teahen (OF / 2B) is a solid player, and a half decent corner outfielder.  He is not a Second Basemen, but if the Royals switch him to second base as the rumours indicate — he may well be useful. Optimally, Teahan would gain second base eligibility and then return to the outfield but we’ll see. Teahan had a down year last year, and he’s still striking out at a 23% clip — so buyer beware.

Big Fat Billy Butler (1B / DH) and Kila Ka’Ailhue (1B / DH) along with Mike Jacobs (1B) should all see time.  Butler was everyones favourite sleeper last year, and Jacobs can just straight up mash. 25 to 30 homers seems about right for Jacobs, considering all things — but you’ll lose out on the counting stats. Ka’Ailhue should be interesting — i’m not sure if he’s a sleeper at this point or not, but boy can he hit.

Ka’Ailhue would have been a huge addition to any team if not for the Mike Jacobs trade, and maybe he’ll still contribute to a lesser extent. Maybe the youngster can sit down with Jacobs and explain to him why it’s beneficial to Walk almost as much, if not more, than you strike out.  Everything is there except playing time.

Alberto Collaspo (2B) just as a side note, i really like Alberto Collapso and whenever playing Baseball Mogul 2007? I made sure to add him to my team — he always got good around 2009.  Computers rule!

Detroit Tigers

Nothing seems to pop out about the Tigers. Maybe Gerald Laird (C) away from Texas? No thanks. Nice line-up though.

Minnesota Twins

Alexi Casilla (2B) isn’t a sleeper but should put up solid stats. If people start snoozing on Delmon Young (OF), this might be the year.  I’d be more than willing to take a risk on Young, banking that he finally put stuff together in his head.  Young’s got all the talent in the world but like so many of these uber-talented top-prospects, maybe his work ethic isn’t quite there.  I’m not going to predict 20 HR for Young, but you should know incredibly early in the season whether or not he’s going to continue grounding balls harmlessly into the outfield.

Nick Puntu (UTIL / Everywhere) should also contribute.

Chicago White Sox

Should be interesting.  Josh Fields (3B) can’t stay healthy and hasn’t shown he can hit, yet. If Jerry Owens (OF) takes the CF job he should be a huge source of steals and more than likely Runs — if he can get on base at a decent clip.

I’m a big fan of super utility man Wilson Betemit (1B/3B/14G @ SS) but whether or not he gets playing time is a different story. His strike out rate is an ugly 25%, but I’d still give him a chance.

New York Yankees

Welcome to the hype-machine. Robinson Cano (2B) will bounce back but the only real sleeper here is Nick Swisher (1B / OF), who could well be dealt.

Swisher hit .219 last year, which is awful. Swisher generally doesn’t hit that well, and expecting more than .260 is goofy but boy does he walk. Expect a nice little return to the .375 range for Swishers OBP, and he’ll regain his .840 OPS form.

Swisher was apparently one of the most unlucky players in 2008, and many are predicting a rebound.

Very rarely do you see a players LD rate go up, while his BABIP dips 50 pts. If Swisher can find a way to get full time playing time, he’s a top 5 sleeper. I just don’t know how he does that in a crowded Yankees outfield — mind you, it’s a crowded AGING Yankees outfield.

Bill Hall

Fantasy Baseball Rankings 2009: Third Basemen

Top 3rd Basemen: The Chlamydia Corner, The Worm Burners.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alex Rodriguez	Yankees	510	35	18	104	103	0.302	0.392	0.573	0.56	0.965

One of these days Alex Rodriguez is going to be overtaken by David Wright, but not yet.  Alex Rodriguez brings value across the board, and he doesn’t appear to be slowing down any time soon. There’s no reason to think that his power numbers will decline anytime soon, and he should post an OPS around 1.000 each and every year.

The curious part is his stolen base numbers. Each and every year I assume that his SB numbers will dip below 15, and then he goes and hikes it up to around 20. He’s obviously never going to steal 46 bases again, but counting on somewhere between 15 and 20 is a safe assumption.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
David Wright	Mets	626	33	15	115	124	0.302	0.39	0.534	0.8	0.924

Wright has developed into one of the more consistant fantasy players out there, and he’s definitely 1b rather than 2nd overall in these rankings. Unlike Rodriguez, David Wright doesn’t have the potential to go and put up 45 home runs unless absolutely everything goes right.

Wright does have the potential to steal 30 bases, and is one of the few players who even has the potential to go 25/25, let alone 30/30.  Depending on who you’re targetting in the later rounds, the extra 10 SB Wright puts up may be worth the loss in HR between him and Rodriguez.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Aramis Ramirez	Cubs	554	27	2	97	111	0.289	0.38	0.518	0.79	0.898

The Cubs are stacked and Ramirez is consistant, and consistancy is key in these early rounds.  You’re going to get what you pay for with Ramirez, 30 HR, 100+ RBI, 100+ Runs, and a .300 average.  There are other third baggers that could put up better numbers than Ramirez, but they come with a bit more risk.

The second tier of third basemen clearly ends with Wright and begins with the next couple of guys.  I’ll take consistancy on a great team over potential, any day of the week.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Evan Longoria	Rays	448	27	7	67	85	0.272	0.343	0.531	0.38	0.874

Oh the potential! Everything you look for in a third basemen, Longoria has. In only 448 AB last year, Longoria threw up amazing numbers.  With a year under his belt and a full time starting gig, Longoria should improve upon his numbers across the board.

Longoria plays on a young, and obviously talented, Tampa Bay Rays team.  There’s more than enough protection on either side of him in the line-up, and they’ve had a taste of success.

The one thing to watch with Longoria are his strikeouts and his lack of walks. Players can succeed with a BB:K ratio of .40, but it’s not something you’d like to see. This screams sophmore slump, so watch out.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Chipper Jones	Braves	439	22	4	82	75	0.364	0.47	0.574	1.48	1.044

Chipper has all the talent in the world, but his body is breaking down and asking for 500 AB is probably asking too much.  However, when I value a third basemen — I fill in the missing at bats with a replacement level player. Even in a 14 team league, there are still plenty of third basemen that you can throw in after Chipper has made his annual DL trip.

Third Base is probably the deepest position of them all this year, so drafting Chipper isn’t as risky as it seems.  He’ll probably bat .330+ and hit 20-25 Homers, with the possibility of .350 and 35 Homers.  Chipper is one of the few third basemen who actually have an eye, and has an above 1.00 B/KK ratio.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	538	29	3	91	115	0.312	0.39	0.569	0.57	0.958

I didn’t think Youkilis would succeed last year, or at least put up the 29 home runs.  There was nothing out there that predicted 30 Homers from Youkilis, but that’s how the cookie crumbles.  You will get a solid average from Youkilis, along with a great On Base Percentage.

All of the prediction models have Youkilis around 20 Homers, but there’s no reason Youkilis can’t repeat his 29 HR season of last year.  He plays in a great line-up and will add mass amounts to either your R or RBI depending on where he’s batted in the line-up.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Aubrey Huff	Orioles	598	32	4	96	108	0.304	0.36	0.552	0.6	0.912

It hurts me to put Aubrey Huff here. I’m not a Huff fan, and he’s managed to put up spectacularly average numbers each and every year.

Last year was ridiculous though, absolutely ridiculous, and maybe he finally put everything together.  He clearly has the talent, and always has had it — it’s just putting it all together. Anyways, the potential for .300 and 30HR is hard to resist.  In a young, talented Orioles line-up, Huff should flourish.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Chone Figgins	Angels	453	1	34	72	22	0.276	0.367	0.318	0.78	0.685

It’s impossible to rank Chone Figgins properly against other third-basemen, as his skill-set is pretty much the opposite of every other third basemen.  He compares better to the second basemen, shortstops or centre-fielders. Anyways, I like to ignore Figgins unless you plan on ignoring stolen bases from other typical SB heavy positions.

If that is the case, Figgins is a must.  If your outfield, or middle infield has power guys — then why not get 30-40 SB from your third-bagger.  He’ll obviously improve on his 22 RBIs from last year, so long as he stays healthy.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Garrett Atkins	Rockies	611	21	1	86	99	0.286	0.328	0.452	0.4	0.78

I’m not certain how the Rockies play out this year, and I’m not sure what Garrett Atkins is going to show up.  With Ian Stewart waiting in the wings, who knows if Atkins stays in Colorado.  If he gets traded, his value drops immensely.

If he does play the entire year in Colorado, he should continue putting up damn good numbers at the hot-corner.  His average took a big hit last year, and he should hike it back past .300 in 2009.  Other than that, 30 Homers and 100+ RBI seem about right.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Melvin Mora	Orioles	513	23	3	77	104	0.285	0.342	0.483	0.53	0.826

He’s not a young sexy sleeper, and Baltimore is over-shadowed by New York and Boston.  He produces though, and he puts up consistant numbers.  The average could be anywhere between .275 and .330.  The Homers should be on the nice side of 20, and the RBIs and Runs should pile up with such a solid Orioles offense.

While the next couple guys: Cantu, Davis, Reynolds and Gordon will  probably produce better than Mora — Mora is safe, real safe.  Maybe I’ll move Mora down, maybe not.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jorge Cantu	Marlins	628	29	6	92	95	0.277	0.327	0.481	0.36	0.808

Good Ol’ Jorge. There was a time when Jorge Cantu played for the Devil Rays and was quite the second base dynasty prospect.  He’s not particularly defensive minded by any means, but he’s young and he can swing the stick.  Then, he dissappeared.

Anyways, it looks as though perennial Minor-League smasher, Dallas McPherson may have grabbed the third-base gig for 2009, with Jorge Cantu moving to first after the Mike Jacobs trade.  I’m sure this is a good thing for Cantu, but who knows.  Cantu still strikes out too much, walks too little, and has an awful OBP.  When he does make contact though, it goes a long way.  The Marlins offense appears to be coming along, and depending on where you get him — Cantu is either a steal with lots of upside, or a huge bust with lots of risk.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Christopher Davis	Rangers	295	17	1	51	55	0.285	0.331	0.549	0.23	0.88

Davis is flying up draft-boards and is one of every magazines sleepers.  The kid can hit, and did so in his limited action in 2008.  However, one of these young third-basemen is going to flop.  The K numbers and plate discipline just aren’t there, and this is the case with many of the young corner-infielders.

Davis’ numbers are hard to resist though: In 295 AB last year, he damn nearly slugged .550 with 17 Home Runs.  Boy, can Davis hit.  He’s clearly worth the risk, but expectations need to be held in check considering his massive K rate.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Guillen	Tigers	420	10	9	68	54	0.286	0.376	0.436	0.9	0.811

Guillen was plagued by injuries last year, and only managed 420 AB. Guillen brings with him a different sort of risk than many of the younger third basemen listed both above, and below, him: Injury Risk.

If you think Guillen can keep his ass, literally his ass, healthy then he’s worth a pick earlier than this point. Depending on his position in the line-up, his R or RBI should be around 100 with the other at about 80 and Guillen actually manages to take a walk or two.  He’s a solid hitter, without great pop, and wont particularly contribute to the SB category — although you can expect 5-10, fairly.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Zimmerman	Nationals	428	14	1	51	51	0.283	0.333	0.442	0.44	0.774

Ryan Zimmerman is another young 3rd baseman, who’s been around long enough to start producing some dirty-ass numbers.  This should be the year that everything comes together, and Washington is starting to look like a half-decent team.

I genuinely have no clue where to actually rank Ryan Zimmerman, but just take a look at his stats and figure it out for yourself.  I suppose you either like him, or you dont. You either like Stud players on bad teams, or you dont.  On a good team, Zimmerman would actually see some pitches, but until someone steps up — teams will continue to pitch around the National best hitter.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mark Reynolds	Diamondbacks	539	28	11	87	97	0.239	0.32	0.458	0.31	0.779

Here we go again, all sorts of talent but strikes out way too damn much. His BB/K ratio isn’t awful because he doesn’t walk, he’s got a bit of Adam Dunn in him, and he’s got a 10% BB rate but he damn near strikes out 40 percent of the time.

Reynolds would be much more useful in an OBP over AVG league, as his .240 average at least becomes a respectable? .320 OBP.  Reynolds is going to steal some bases, hit some HR, and come close to 100 RBIs and Runs.  He’s a ridiculous talent, but his average will kill you.

Of course, if Reynolds improves his average it will certainly come at the loss of some power but he’d still be pretty attractive at 20-25 HR, 80 Runs, 90 RBI, and a .260 AVG.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alex Gordon	Royals	493	16	9	72	59	0.26	0.351	0.432	0.55	0.783

If you’re not on crack like myself, go ahead and move Alex Gordon down 3-4 spots.  I adore crack-cocaine however, and Gordon’s staying here. I’m figuring Gordon puts up a great year, in a poor offense, and finally puts everything together.

Alex Gordon has just as much talent as Evan Longoria, and/or Ryan Braun, yet for some reason he hasn’t put the peices together.  This is the year he swats 35 Homers, and steals 15 bases.  Its gotta be. He’s on the right track, keeping his K% under 25 percent and I can’t help but believe that Alex Gordon and Zack Greinke put the Royals back in the spotlight, at least for 3 weeks.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Edwin Encarnacion	Reds	506	26	1	75	68	0.251	0.34	0.466	0.6	0.807

He’s on the right track, and he’s just gotta keep that average up to maintain fantasy relevance.  He should be in for a break out year, and is just starting to come into his prime at age 26.

Go ahead and circle the hell out of Edwin Encarnancion on your draft card, becaue it genuinely looks like its break out year time.  He could finish as high as 3rd or 4th overall in the final rankings.  He could also be babied again, sent back down to the minors, and never heard from again. (Actually, i’m not sure about Edwins Contract Options — If he’s out of options, I suppose the Red’s wont baby him anymore.  Draft Edwin, if you’d like some risk)

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Troy Glaus	Cardinals	544	27	0	69	99	0.27	0.372	0.483	0.84	0.856

I’m a Toronto Jays fan, and i tend to believe that Troy Glaus is a big-ol’ baby, who loves his steroids.

Glaus is bound to get hurt at some point, and when that massive injury occurs, I dont want to be the guy owning him.

Otherwise, Glaus has the potential to keep hitting 30 HR and 100RBI if he stays healthy.  An .850 OBP + SLG puts him in pretty elite company.  Stupid Glaus!

Glaus is already out and  is expected to miss 3 months of the season.  That took about 3 hours since the post.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Adrian Beltre	Mariners	556	25	8	74	77	0.266	0.327	0.457	0.56	0.784

I hate Adrian Beltre.  I hate that he’s got so much talent, and doesn’t play all-out. I hate that he had a good year in LA and got a massive contract from SEA.

Beltre is a great player, who’s younger than he seems, considering he’s been haunting fantasy squads for years.

The moment you forget about Beltre, he’ll go and put up 48HR and 120 RBI *cough cough* 2004.  He’s shown that he can knock out 30 a year while piling up a few SB, but I never want this man on my team.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Mike Lowell	Red Sox	419	17	2	58	73	0.274	0.338	0.461	0.62	0.798

How is Mike Lowell still on the Red Sox? Who knows. You probably dont want to draft Mike Lowell, as there’s more than a few guys with great upside at this point.  Mike could return to his 120RBI prowess of two years ago, but i doubt it.

Still good value in this extremely deep 2009 third base class, here.

Name	Team	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Casey Blake	- – -	536	21	3	71	81	0.274	0.345	0.463	0.41	0.808

Casey Blake is a safe pick here. He’s not a sexy prospect or an aging veteran, he’s simply a dude that produces and has a sparkling fucking beard.

Possibly the best beard in all of professional sports, ever.  Its thick and lusterous, and the dudes got a huge man-chin.  If he’s in Dodger-town LA all year, he’s got a good chance of hiking up those Run and RBI totals and playing a solid third base. While the know-it-all jerkoff may grab Ian Stewart or Kevin Kouzmanoff here, I’d stick with Casey Blake.

The Best Of The Rest Time:

• Ty Wigginton
• Dallas McPherson
• Joe Crede
• Kevin Kouzmanoff
• Ian Stewart
• Josh Fields
• Bill Hall
• Andy Laroche
• Pablo Sandoval
• Eric Chavez
• Brandon Inge
• Brandon Wood
• Travis Metcalf
• Brian Buscher
• Daniel Murphy
• Wilson Betemit
• Andy Marte
• Scott Rolen (I hate being a Blue Jays Fan)
• Jose Bautista (Truly Hate it, but Getting Bautista was a great call)

Third base is truly insane — from about tenth overall almost to the  bottom, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the same numbers.  Pablo Sandoval is a huge sleeper that could easily put up better numbers than Edwin Encarnacion.

You pretty much have to take whomever falls into your lap.  I think the depth of this years 3rd base crop really devalues Alex Rodriguez and David Wright.