BDPP93, Tyler Matzek of the Colorado Rockies, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: This Might Blow Up (Sell..to Buy)

Projected Value: Great

I had a feeling that this might happen:  Matzek tops Baseball America’s list of Rockies Prospects.  This is kind of a bummer because the kid looked to slide by as a High+ type player, rather than a full-on superstar.

Matzek saw his value drop during draft day due to the dreaded “signability issue.”  Well, dreaded for baseball teams but terrific for people that invest cash in baseball cards.

The only question with this big lefty is his desire to be great.  Personally, I think the kid has it in ‘em to tear through the minors if Colorado lets ‘em go.  If they try and slow him down, preferring to actually teach him, rather than just usher him; Matzek might start sputtering.

The next question is Matzek’s value in Colorado.  There’s still a stigma surrounding Colorado, so you may actually get a shot to get his stuff 10% cheaper than you’d expect.

Christian Friederich ranked the number two prospect in Colorado’s system, and his red refractor sold for 76 dollars just the other week.

Matzek’s a step above Friederich, and his first Bowman Card’s going to be an autograph.  Combine that with the stir that’ll be caused by BA’s top 100 and the initial buzz of BDPP and you’ll have a card that you can sell now and probably get back in a little under a year for a better price.

Even if he starts in low-A, you’ll still have time to acquire the card before his name starts popping up in “the next big thing” conversations…

BDPP81, Randal Grichuk of the Anaheim Angels, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Wait and See (Probably Buying)

Projected Value: High+

Grichuk has something that people that buy cards love: “Power!”

Considering that Grichuk went into the Arizona Fall League as a seventeen year old, the youngest player in the league, he did quite well.

Unfortunately, his power numbers at 17 have begun driving his prices up.

Grichuk should sell well right out of the box, considering his power.

Grichuk’s flaws are noticeable and plentiful, but the groundwork’s definitely been laid for yearly improvement.  In the AFL, Grichuk struck out a tonne and will continue to do so, regardless of the minor changes.  The Angels are simply hoping he’ll curtail his 27% K-Rate and 0.14 BB:K Rate.

Lots of potential here, but the prices will largely determine whether or not Grichuk’s a Buy or Sell. It’s difficult to project exactly how much hype Grichuk will carry with him into the new Bowman DPP, but he’ll almost certainly find himself shooting up Baseball America’s board with refinement.

His frame is currently sporting some speed, but I’d like to see that replaced with opposite field power.  Right now, it seems as though his swing almost necessitates power to the pull field.

There’s definitely bust potential here, so try not to *over* pay.

BDPP80, Matt Bashore of the Minnesota Twins, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Neither, really.

Projected Value: Medium

Coming into the season there was a fairly good shot that Bashore would end up drafted ahead of Arnett — That didn’t happen.  Bashore slide to the 46th overall spot and ended up signing for about 750K.

Bashore’s definitely going to have a hard time building up steam, but there’s still a chance.  If you can swing an unbelievable deal on his cards or just pull one, you’ve gotta keep it.  It’s not going to fetch enough money on the secondary market to warrant selling it unless you’re able to list it incredibly early.

With that in mind, Bashore’s still has size and pitching-hand going for him.  It’s not exactly easy to find big lefthanded starters, so the Twinkies will definitely invest time into the kid.

There’s definitely room to grow, and Bashore appears to have the right mindset but he’s a true prospect.

Bashore definitely leaves you wanting more.  He’s definitely capable of growth, but doesn’t quite have the flash or the polish on the breaking pitches that you’d like to see.

BDPP76, Tony Sanchez of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Sell

Projected Value: Medium

Sanchez is an interesting prospect, but there are a couple of things working against the value of his cards in the long-term.

First off, Sanchez looks to be staying put in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future.  New Pirates General Manager, Neal Huntington, seems to be on the right track to building a mid-market franchise with budget constraints.  Huntington probably won’t be around to see the majority of his maneuvers come to fruition, but the groundwork has been laid.

The move to draft Sanchez with the fourth overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft was a bit questionable, but you have to admire a GM that puts his faith into the hands of the Scouting Director and takes a leap of faith.

Unfortunately, Sanchez’s early draft slot and high signing bonus will lead to an early overvaluation of his cards.

Sanchez has all of the tools to be an above average catcher in the big leagues, but his name shouldn’t be amongst the highlights of any checklist.  He had a terrific seasons in Low-A, where he showcased his potential.

Sanchez could make a claim for a promotion to Double-A early in the season.  He’s not afraid to take a walk, a skill that’s translated well from BC, and the power’s starting to come around.

You’re going to have issues making money of Sanchez, though.  People like to overpay for early first rounders and even if Sanchez hits the show before 2012, his cards will have a hard time standing up to fourth-overall selection prices.

This is going to be a headache, but with the economy down and the checklist looking a weak, I’m going to do the unthinkable:  I’m going to share not only detailed reports, but also project the market values and steals for this year’s Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects baseball cards.

For the majority of fantasy baseball players outside of the insanely deep leagues, this’ll probably be worthless evaluation.  For the card collectors that like to purchase a card for ten dollars and re-sell it for 50, this might be useful.

Here’s the Checklist (courtesy of CardboardConnection.com.)  It’s a preliminary checklist, but I’ll update it as new information becomes available.