One of my favorite things to do early in the season is place small, rather arbitrary, but well-researched bets on win-total over/unders at Bodog’s Sportsbook.

First up, the NL West Projected Win Totals:

Arizona Diamondbacks

Line: Over/Under @ 72.5 WINS

2010 Wins: 65 Wins

2010 Expected Wins: 68

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 75 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 73.8 WINS

GUT FEELING: Under

Subtractions: Daren Haren and Edwin Jackson were two huge pieces early on, but finished 2010 on different clubs. Adam LaRoche and Brandon Webb were the only notables to leave during the off-season. Mark Reynolds was traded to the O’s.

Additions: Henry Blanco, Willie Bloomquist, Geoff Blum, Melvin Mora, Xavier Nady, J.J. Putz, Armando Gallaraga.

Pitching: Without a proven number one, this could get interesting. Right now, it’s Joe Saunders, Ian Kennedy, Daniel Hudson and Barry Enright. Zach Duke and Kevin Mulvey will battle Jarrod Parker ( Baseball America’s 33rd Ranked Prospect) for the back-end of the rotation. Daniel Hudson’s ridiculous LOB% of 91% is bound to regress. The bullpen is definitely a question mark even with the addition of hard-throwing David Hernandez from Baltimore.

Hitting: It’s all about Chris Young, Stephen Drew and Justin Upton coming into their own while Kelly Johnson maintains his power. Unfortunately, Kelly Johnson isn’t going to hit 26HR again. Johnson’s 15.6% HR-to-FB rate is bound to regress to career norms and his ISO will follow. Chris Young’s power is also likely to regress a bit, but Justin Upton’s probably in line for a break-out campaign if he can play more than 130 games. Overall, this team isn’t much better than last year on the offensive side of the ball.

Conclusion: The Diamondbacks rivaled the Pirates for the worst pitching in the league last year and they’ve gotten worse. On the offensive side of the ball, they’re not getting that much better with the addition of Melvin Mora and Xavier Nady. The projection models get fuzzy around the edges. They hate telling you that you’re great, and hate telling you how much you suck. I vote UNDER.

Colorado Rockies

Line: Over/Under @ 86.5

2010 Wins: 83

2010 Expected Wins: 87

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 84 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 85.9 WINS

GUT FEELING: Under

Subtractions: Octavio Dotel, Jeff Francis, Melvin Mora, Clint Barmes, Miguel Olivo.

Additions: Ty Wigginton, Matt Lindstrom, Felipe Paulino, Jose Lopez.

Pitching: Ubaldo Jiminez broke through and Jhoulys Chacin may follow in his footsteps. A full season from Jorge De La Rosa, and Aaron Cook will definitely help. The end of the rotation remains essentially the same with Jason Hammel being Jason Hammel and a handful of high-WHIP fill ins. Colorado’s bullpen is still filled with a handful of very useful pitchers and Matt Lindstrom should help.

Hitting: Carlos Gonzalez is in for some huge regression with a .384 BABIP and a 20% HR-to-FB ratio, but his decline should be more than covered by the rest of the team. Ian Stewart should rebound and Troy Tulowitzki’s one of the best in the game. The addition of the streaky Jose Lopez should add some pop to the line-up and replace Mora without issue. Miguel Olivo had a great season, but Chris Ianetta has shown promise for the longest time and Wilin Rosario isn’t too far away.

Conclusion: I think Carlos Gonzalez’s regression will hurt and Todd Helton isn’t getting any younger, but this is going to be close, real close. Let’s go UNDER, but just barely.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Line: Over/Under @ 84

2010 Wins: 80

2010 Expected Wins: 78

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 87 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 83.3 WINS

GUT FEELING: Over

Subtractions: Reed Johnson, Russell Martin, George Sherrill, Manny Ramirez

Additions: Jon Garland, Matt Guerrier, Tony Gwynn Jr., Gabe Kapler, Ron Mahay, Dioner Navarro, Juan Uribe, Eugenio Velez

Pitching: This is one of the best starting rotations out there. Kershaw, Garland and Billingsley are all sure things and Ted Lilly is pretty close even if he doesn’t get a full season in. Kuroda has shown flashes and Padilla’s been around long enough to be a capable fifth starter. Last year Ely filled in nicely and at some point he’ll be called upon to do it again. The addition of Guerrier helps the club immensely and Kuo provides a great lefty-bridge to Broxton. Belisario’s still got a great arm and Ely can pitch.

Hitting: Even with the loss of Manny and Martin, the club’s still in great shape. Either should get a full season under his belt and Kemp’s one of the best youngster’s in the business. Tony Gywnn Jr., Jay Gibbons and Marcus Thames provide the Dodgers with a bunch of flexibility in the outfield. When Raffy Furcal is healthy, he’s one of the best in the business….still. Navarro and Barajas should come fairly close to replacing Martin. Juan Uribe over Jamey Carroll isn’t a huge deal, but it’s something.

Conclusion: I think the pitching brings this team OVER.

San Diego Padres

Line: Over/Under @ 75.5

2010 Wins: 90

2010 Expected Wins: 92

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 80 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 81.2 WINS

GUT FEELING: Over

Subtractions: Jason Barlett, Kevin Correia, David Eckstein, Jon Garland, Tony Gwynn, Scott Hairston, Jerry Hairston, Matt Stairs, Chris Young, Miguel Tejada

Additions: Jorge Cantu, Kevin Frandsen, Aaron Harang, Brad Hawpe, Orlando Hudson, Dustin Moseley, Chad Qualls, Gregg Zaun, Eric Patterson, Cameron Maybin

Injury: Kyle Blanks questioning to start season. Zaun out until early March.

Pitching: The loss of Garland hurts, but Aaron Harang is a very capable replacement. Mat Latos is one of the best young pitchers in the business. Clayton Richard, Tim Stauffer, Wade LeBlanc and Cory Luebke fill out the possible starters, but Simon Castro is a beast. By no means a great staff, but a competent 1-2. The Bullpen provides a nice pick-me-up.

Hitting: PETCO Park isn’t exactly a hitting paradise, but the Padres have added some pop. Jason Barlett is a slight upgrade at SS over Everth Cabrera, but don’t expect the Bartlett of yesteryear. Chase Headley should continue to improve and Ryan Ludwick, Brad Hawpe and Jorge Cantu should provide added pop. I’m huge on Will Venable and think that Maybin might play a competent center-field.

Conclusion: Definitely not the 90-win squad, but certainly better than a 76W team.

San Francisco Giants

Line: Over/Under @ 88.5 WINS

2010 Wins: 92 Wins

2010 Expected Wins: 95

CHONE PROJECTIONS: 90 Wins

EARLY CAIRO: 84.2 WINS

GUT FEELING: OVER

Subtractions: Chris Ray, Edgar Renterio, Juan Uribe, Eugenio Velez, Kevin Frandsen

Additions: Elmer Dessens, Jeff Suppan, Miguel Tejada,

Pitching: Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez, Madison Bumgarner and Barry Zito. Crazy Todd Wellemeyer’s been inked again to a minor league deal.

Hitting: The pieces are still in place and Buster Posey has a year of experience. Pablo Sandoval should have a bounce back year even if Aubrey Huff and Andres Torress return to earth. This isn’t a killer offense, but they don’t have to produce to be effective. The Giants were in the middle of the pack last year with Runs scored and that shouldn’t change.

Conclusion: The team isn’t exactly built to deal with a prolonged injury to any one of it’s pitching stars but all things being equal, I’m going to go with OVER.

The Arizona Diamondbacks have one hell of a bullpen and realistically any one of five guys could close. Chad Qualls is doing an outstanding job having notched six saves in seven chances while sporting a 1.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Qualls continues to sit around a strike-out per inning (12.6K/9,) and currently has a 14:1 K to BB rate. Qualls has a 9!!! GB:FB ratio and is currently sporting a .388 BABIP — basically, Qualls has been a Fantasy Jesus, thus far.

Behind Qualls is Tony Pena (1.42 ERA, 1.11 WHIP,) Joe Rauch (9.00 ERA, 2.09 WHIP,) Scott Schoeneweis (2.25 ERA, 1.25 WHIP) and finally Juan Gutierrez (3.00 ERA, 1.13 WHIP.)

Juan Gutierrez has been making his way into a couple columns here and there due to his terrific 12.00 K per 9, and respectable 3.33 K per BB. Gutierrez is holding opposing batters to a .206 Batting Average with solid indicators that he’s for real.  Batters have an above average .330 BABIP, and he’s stranding a league-average 70% of batters. These indicators along with his strike-out rate has resulted in a FIP normalized to ERA of 1.71.

There are some statistical warnings though. Gutierrez is allowing 30% of his hits as line-drives, and 40% as fly balls.  These numbers haven’t come back to bite him in the ass as he’s yet to allow a home-run, but you’d expect him to finish the season somewhere around the 10-12% FB/HR range.  If Gutierrez continues to allow line-drives at a 30% clip, his BABIP is probably actually a little low at .330.  Expect some regression if he continues to get hard.

Coming from the Astros, Gutierrez wasn’t particularly special. Gutierrez ranked as high as the Astros’ 4th overall prospect, but the Astros system is rated the worst in the MLB. Something changed since Gutierrez last saw MLB action though.  I’d actually probably nail it down to this previous off-season, and here’s why:

Gutierrez’s K-Rate was stuck in the 6 batters per 9 range for a few years and levels.  Gutierrez had notched a strike out per inning way back in AA ball in 2006, but since then he’d leveled off.

My major concern is where Gutierrez found this magical added velocity that’s made him an elite strike-out pitcher.  The graphs below are Gutierrez’s Fastball Velocity, Curveball Velocity and Change Up Velocity.

All Graphs Courtesy of Fangraphs.com

Average Fastball Velocity Increase 91.8 to 94.5

Average Curveball Velocity Increase 75.7 to 81.1

Average Change Up Velocity Increase 80.9 to 85.1

Adding to Gutierrez’s effectiveness is the addition of a slider that averages 82mph. Gutierrez relies on it about 16 percent of the time, and there’s a possibility that it could simply be his curveball flattening out.  Both pitches have solid break, and I’m too lazy to look at spin.

Gutierrez looks good, but I have trouble believing that an across the board velocity increase is the result hard work and better mechanics. There’s a chance that Gutierrez was injured in 2007 when his baseline was recorded, but I cannot find any articles detailing an injury. With that said, Gutierrez could log quite a few innings and strike-outs if he stays healthy, which is a HUGE if, considering what I’m implying.

If you’re in the market for high-K relievers with good ratios, Gutierrez might not be a bad choice.  He hasn’t logged a hold or save yet, but if he continues to dominate he should find himself entering games where the Diamondbacks have the lead.

If you haven’t guessed by the terrible Diamondback reference, we’re taking a look at the Arizona Diamondback’s Chris Young.

Statistics are wonderful tool, but watching Chris Young take at-bats should be more than enough to clue you into what’s wrong:  Chris Young’s swing has abandon him.  Young’s always had a decent swing, and has always managed to remain balanced through the zone which is important for a hard-swinger like Young.  Unfortunately in 2009, there seems to be more than a couple kinks in it.  His hips aren’t as smooth and his weight isn’t nearly as balanced coming through the zone.

This has expressed itself in a 32 % rate of striking out, which Young has steadily increased after entering the league. In Young’s first season of 2007, he struck out 24.8 % of the time, compared to a 7% BB-Rate.  In 2008, Young increased his BB-Rate to 9% but also increased his K-Rate to 26.4%.  In addition to striking out more, Young’s also walking a pitiful 6% of the time.  Young can function at a .30-.38 BB:K rate given his skill-set, but will have trouble maintain value at his current 0.19 BB:K ratio.  All of this has resulted in an awful .233 OBP and .177 batting average.

Young’s contact numbers and plate discipline are equally concerning. Young’s always swung at a slightly below league average rate across the board.  There’s a marginal increase in the amount of pitches both inside and outside of the zone, but that is by no means an indicator of trouble.  Where the trouble lies is in Young’s contact rate:  Young’s increased the amount of contact he’s made on balls outside of the zone, but has dipped to 76.7% contact on balls inside the strike zone.  This is down almost a full 10% from Chris Young’s previous two years with the Diamondbacks. So while Young’s overall Contact Percentage remains close to his career average of 77%, he’s making a large portion of his contact on balls outside of the zone.

Breaking this down, it appears as though Young’s much more of a guess-hitter than a read and react hitter.  What I mean by this is that Young’s picking a pitch, and picking a zone, and swinging away if he sees his pitch. A couple things spring to mind when evaluating Young’s decreased Zone Contact Rate: 1) ESPN’s Brendan Roberts mentioned that Chris Young had put on weight, and there could be an adjustment period. 2) Chris Young is injured.

Both of these theories are supported by Chris Young failing to hit the ball square.  Young’s line-drive percentage has remained consistent, but the amount of pop-ups that he’s hitting is ridiculous. Of the 36 Fly Balls (55% FB,) an astonishing 15 of them have went for infield fly-balls (41.7 IFFB%.)

Chris Young is not only failing to hit the ball squarely, he’s not even coming close. Young’s BABIP may be quite low at .238, especially considering his line-drive percentage of 18.5% but even after this regresses, he’d be lucky to hit .240 the way he’s missing.

In the end, Chris Young falls into the Mike Cameron school of hacking.  Even if everything goes perfectly, Young’s only going to hit .250 with 25 HR and 20 SB.  It’s unfortunate that Young lacks plate-patience, and you’re pretty much stuck with a .310 OBP.

The good news is, if Young’s failing due to added weight, he should eventually figure his swing out and you could possibly expect better than projected power.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Young better his 2006 numbers if he gets everything sorted out quickly.  The bad news is, Young’s still having some issues with league-average breaking balls, and the best case scenario is a batting average of .250.

Young’s power speed combination gives him another two weeks worth of lee-way.  Obviously if you’re in a league with a great waiver-wire, go ahead and use it.

Top 10 Fantasy Baseball Starting Pitchers ( SP ) In 2009

Which starting pitchers will excel in 2009? A quick little look at the numbers each SP should put up, combined with a gut feeling of what they’ll actually put up.

#1 Johan Santana – SP – NY Mets

Bill James Prediction: 18-7, 234K, 3.01ERA, 1.07WHIP, 9.16 K:9

2008: 16 W, 2.53 ERA, 1.15 WHIP, 206K, 7.91 K:9, 3.27 K:BB

Great things were expected of Santana last year after a tremendous 2007 campaign and while he didn’t disappoint, his strikeout numbers drastically decreased. 2008 was the first year that Santana failed to strikeout at least one batter per inning since becoming a starting pitcher.

Santana’s other 2008 numbers remained similar to career averages, and the slight increase in BB:9 isn’t concerning.

At this point, Santana is the safest bet. While another pitcher or two may finish ahead of Santana in the final standings — they’ll also come with larger risks.

CitiBank will almost certainly favour pitchers in the same manner that Shea did as the dimensions are almost exactly the same.

If Lincecum wasn’t 160lbs soaking wet, and Sabathia didn’t have the potential to eat the big apple; they’d both be able to give Santana a run for his money. As always, pitchers are a fickle bunch and even the dominant ones manage to get themselves hurt ruining your fantasy season.

#2 Tim Lincecum – SP – SF Giants

Bill James Prediction: 17-9, 272K, 3.02ERA, 1.19WHIP, 10.2 K:9

2008: 18 W, 2.62 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 265K, 10.5 K:9, 3.26 K:BB

Lincecum has potential to put up big boy stats, and quite possibly lead the league in just about every meaningful pitching category. I’d almost certainly put him as the top pitcher if not for his petite frame. At 5’11, 170lbs, the body just isn’t made to throw 95mph. His delivery is also a concern, and the possibility of injury is just to great to put Lincecum at number 1.

Everything else is great for Lincecum. He pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, and he’s got great ratios.

While his WINS may not stack up against the kids in New York, he’ll manage more than a couple. Wins are the most random stat of the bunch anyways, so banking on them is generally a silly idea.

James’ predictions are almost always insanely conservative, so to see Lincecum improving on last years strike out numbers is a great sign. If you think Lincecum pitches all year without injury — there’s no harm in drafting him above Santana.

#3 C.C. Sabathia – SP – NY Yankees

BJP: 16-10, 205K, 3.48ERA, 1.23WHIP, 7.69 K:9

2008: 17 W, 2.70 ERA, 1.11 WHIP, 251K, 8.93 K:9, 4.25 K:BB

Personally, I wouldn’t touch Sabathia with a ten foot pole. You’re going to have to pay too much for him in an auction draft, or draft him too early in a snake. Unless he falls into your lap, he’s probably going to be a reach due to the New York hype machine.

Sabathia also seems to have a bit of Manny Ramirez in him and now that he’s got the big fat contract, he may just let himself go.

Everyone will remember his 2008 finish, but the start of his 2008 season was concerning.

With all that said, C.C. Sabathia will fill the stat sheet for you. He’ll obviously put up solid win totals playing for the rebuilt Yankees.

C.C. Sabathia should top 200 Ks easily, and his ratios will remain as some of the best in the majors.

#4a Jake Peavy – SP – SD? Padres?

BJP: 14-8, 202K, 3.26ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.0 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.85 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 166K, 8.60 K:9, 2.81 K:BB

Peavy’s 2008 numbers weren’t as flashy as normal which has more to do with his IP totals than the slight decline in K:9.

Peavy probably has the best value in the top 10 SP, as many experts have him rated lower.

Peavy pitches in a pitcher’s park, and generally keeps his WHIP in the 1.05-1.10 range. His 2008 strained right elbow more than likely raised his WHIP while his GS fell.

Predicting a “bounce back” year for Peavy is easy to do. The potential for 210Ks with a sub-1.10 WHIP, and sub-3.00 ERA is hard to resist.

The difference between Peavy and the next group of pitchers simply comes down to ratios. Peavy’s ERA the past five years is 2.27, 2.88, 4.09, 2.54, 2.85 along with a 1.20, 1.04, 1.23, 1.06, 1.18 WHIP.

#4b Cole Hamels – SP – PHI Phillies

BJP: 16-8, 214K, 3.24ERA, 1.12WHIP, 8.64 K:9

2008: 14 W, 3.09 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 196K, 7.76 K:9, 3.70 K:BB

The difference between Hamels and Peavy is negligible and you can’t go wrong with either one. Personally, I think you’re going to have to pay more for Hamels for the same amount of production. Both have similiar ceilings, but Hamels has an offense behind him — which should lead to increased wins. Philadelphia also has a rock-solid bullpen that’s capable of holding onto leads, even with the loss of J.C. Romero.

If you can get Hamels cheaper than Peavy, by all means take him for the guaranteed wins.

Hamels has been injury free since he came to the Majors, but I believe he had a small series of minor league injuries. The potential is always there when you’re not built like a brick shithouse.

Hamels is the last of the guaranteed 200K, 1.20WHIP guys without injury worries. If you’re going to draft a starting pitcher early, I’d recommend getting in before this cut off point.

#6 Brandon Webb – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 15-9, 176K, 3.37ERA, 1.24WHIP, 7.14 K:9

2008: 22 W, 3.30 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 183K, 7.27 K:9, 2.82 K:BB

Webb has been solid for a while now, and seems to go through an un-hittable phase each and every year. He’s got ridiculous sinking action on his fast ball which he throws about 3/4 of the time, at around 88-90mph.

He’s not a pure strike out pitcher, but he’ll creep up on 200k if he can notch 220-230 IP. This is a bit concerning however as he’s entering the “DEAR GOD- HIS ARM JUST FELL OFF” stage after 5 seasons of 200IP in a row. There’s the potential there for injury, but its limited.

Everything points to Brandon Webb keeping his WHIP in the 1.20 range. However, Webb went through a couple stints last year where he’d give up 5-7 runs per contest, which is worrisome.

There’s very little risk in drafting a player like Webb, and while he may not put up crazy K numbers he’ll hold his own as the ace of any staff.

#7 Dan Haren – SP – ARI Diamondbacks

BJP: 14-10, 174K, 3.59ERA, 1.20WHIP, 7.46 K:9

2008: 16 W, 3.33 ERA, 1.13 WHIP, 206K, 8.53 K:9, 5.15 K:BB

When the Oakland Athletics get rid of a pitcher, he almost always becomes terrible. Dan Haren actually improved, however.

Haren was a machine in 2008, and with a BABIP of .315 after 4 years of .305 and below — he may actually improve.

Pitchers generally get a bump when they switch leagues as the hitters haven’t timed their delivery, nor have they seen their arsenal. Therefore, it wouldn’t be surprising to see Haren come back down to earth a little bit although he had pitched a year and a half in Cardinal red and white.

With a 2008 K:9 of 8.58, a WHIP of 1.13, and a remarkable K:BB ratio of 5.15 — Haren is looking solid.

As mentioned earlier, Bill James is generally quite conservative and will rely on a three year average rather than a stunning previous year, if the data is available. I tend to agree with this approach, unless you believe a player has turned the corner. Obviously, you can’t tell simply based on stats whether or not a player has turned the corner.

So it’s up to you. Haren could easily put up numbers better than Webb and on par with Peavy and Hamels. There’s a bit of risk here, but not enough to keep you up at night.

#8 Roy Halladay – SP – TOR Blue Jays

BJP: 17-10, 172K, 3.18ERA, 1.13WHIP, 6.42 K:9

2008: 20 W, 2.81 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 206K, 7.53 K:9, 5.23 K:BB

Roy Halladay’s totals rely on how many games he starts. Halladay is a great pitcher, and a must have in any league that considers Complete Games or Quality Starts a category.

Roy’s K:9 took a huge leap last year, after many years of a consistent 5.5 to 6.5 ratio. To predict a repeat of his 2008 7.54 K per 9 is somewhat foolish.

When you draft Halladay, you’ll get your wins, era, and whip — guaranteed.

Unfortunately, his strike out numbers are going to depend heavily on innings pitched. He’s made a habit of throwing 230+ inninngs, and when he does that, he’ll put up solid K numbers.

While I have no data to suggest that Halladay ends up with a major shoulder injury this year, it seems quite possible given his workload and the Blue Jays dependance on him.

#9 Josh Beckett – SP – BOS Red Sox

BJP: 13-8, 176K, 3.57ERA, 1.22WHIP, 8.38 K:9

2008: 12 W, 4.03 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 172K, 8.88 K:9, 5.06 K:BB

Josh has the dirty dirty and can hang with anyone. Over the past two years, he’s drastically cut back on his walks per nine (from 3+ to under 2.00), which fantasy owners love.

Unfortunately, Beckett has blister issues. He’s always has blister issues, and they’re certainly caused by his uncle charlie. His Curve is probably his best strike out pitch and he needs it to be an elite pitcher.

To add to this, he’s now becoming a dirty old man who bitches about his back all the time. So, he’s got some serious injury issues and if you’re banking on 200IP you may be in for a ride.

When Josh Beckett does pitch however, it’s beautiful. He strikes out a batter an inning, he’ll put up a sub-1.20 WHIP, his K:BB is 5 and he plays for the Red Sox.

#10 Rich Harden – SP – CHI Cubs

BJP: 11-5, 151K, 3.02ERA, 1.18WHIP, 9.44 K:9

2008: 10 W, 2.07 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, 181K, 11.01 K:9, 2.97 K:BB

Yah, this is stupid.

Rich Harden is going to get hurt.

This pick / rating depends on how deep your league is. In a deep league, Harden gets moved down. But in a shallow league, where when Harden makes his eventual DL trip you’ll be able to spot start guys with favorable match-ups and keep your ERA under four: Harden goes here.

Harden’s numbers last year were ridiculous: 11! K! per! 9! , 1.06 WHIP

Basically, sit down and realistically figure out how many innings you think Harden will pitch. If you think he pitches more than 150 innings, its worthwhile to draft him. Even at 150 innings, he’ll strike out 160-170 and when you add that with 50 innings of spot starting nice matchups — you’re going to end up with a 200K guy, with a 1.20 WHIP, a 3.20 ERA.

Harden does have a huge history of injuries, and he’ll probably go down. How you value him really depends on what kind of waiver wire you think you’ll have. If the top 80-90 SP are gone, you’re probably going to want to wait on Harden.

Harden’s the biggest boom / bust of the entire draft.

Generally, I like to see at least a 7.5 to 8 strikeouts per nine, to throw this tag on. However, if a pitcher has a realistic shot of accumulating enough innings to reach 200 Ks with a lower ratio he should still be viewed as a source of K’s

ESPN uses an incredibly simple formula to determine which ball parks favor hitters, and which favor pitchers. Its called park factors, and since your pitchers play half of their games at home — it’s pretty important.

Greg Maddux-type accuracy is great to have on your roster. Dice-K type accuracy, is not. Dice-K can hit all of the spots, and ends up walking quite a few batters because he’s going for the perfect pitch each and every time. This is as much about WHIP as it is about accuracy.

Simple: he’s either coming off an injury, has a history of injuries, or he’s someone who’s 5’10, 170lbs, and throws 100mph. Tiny frames aren’t meant to throw that hard.

If you play with fire, you get burnt. These are just risky players, and a few of them on a roster is brilliant, but stacking your roster with boom/bust guys will end you up losing more often than winning.

Tim Lincecum Photography From Dave Nelson, Flickr

With a name like Upton, you’ve gotta be good. Justin Upton, welcome to the hype machine.

There’s no doubt, in anyone’s mind that Justin Upton is going to be an incredible player.  Fangraphs recently looked at the players that managed 100 AB Major League At-Bats after making it to the majors as a 20 year old, or younger (find it here)

This list includes: Alomar, Beltre, Cabrera, Crawford, Griffey Jr., Alex Rodriguez, Jose Reyes and a boat load of other All-Stars, Future Hall of Famers, and Solid Major Leaguers. B.J. Upton, his partner in crime and blood-brother also makes this list.

The question is, will Justin Upton be useful this year. Here’s the juice, so far:

phxwebguy flickr

First off, regardless of Upton’s insane athletic ability, he’s not going to steal a tonne of bases.  Even in the Minors, for every base Upton stole (36 Minor League SB) he was caught half a time (18 CS).

Maybe Upton grows into it, but realistically just assume Upton will not steal bases.  If he does, you can smile and nod while enjoying the 10SB you just found on the street.

Now, onto the power and average.

Most of the prediction systems, Bill James included, have Justin Upton barely hitting 130 Games. Bill James is the only one of the bunch that has Upton getting to 450 AB (James has 506AB, Marcel has 368, CHONE has 435, and Oliver has 365)

Upton should well play a full season as the Diamondbacks’ starting Right Fielder. If you pencil Upton in for 600 AB, and 145 Games things get interesting.

Bill James projection of 22 Home Runs suddenly becomes 26 home runs, over 600 AB. 79 RUNs scored over ~500 AB, suddently ends up being 93 R. RBI over 500 AB are 68 and expanded to  600 you end up with 81 RBI.

Suddenly we have a 93 R / 26HR / 81 RBI player. Obviously, you can assume that an extrapolated  batting average and slugging percentage will remain the same: .265 BA, .356 OBP, .488 SLG.

It looks like we have a solid player, with a mediocre batting average with a whole lot of upside.  The downside with Justin Upton last year was clearly his 34% strike-out rate. All of the projection models have him coming down to about 28-29% strike-out rate.  So any improvement on those numbers, would more than likely positively effect their projections.

Regardless of the K-Rate, Upton still has the “patience” to take walks.  It’s somewhat reassuring to see him register a 12%  BB-Rate which keeps his BB:K ratio at a tolerable .40 to .50 area.

The other concerning factor is his Contact Rate of 68 Percent, overall.  Which is composed of a 50.5 Percent contact rate outside the zone (O-Contact) and a 74.4 percent contract rate within the zone (Z-Contact).

There are only 8 Players with worse contact rates, that had 100AB, starting with the worst:Mark Reynolds, Kelly Shoppach, Donnie Murphy, Jack Cust, Tony Clark, Ryan Howard, Miguel Olivo and Kevin Cash.  Everyone’s favourite sleeper, Chris Davis, is tied with Upton with a 68.1% Contact rate.

Of these players, Justin Upton by far has the best contact rate on pitches outside of the zone with the next closest being 46.9% to his 50.5%.  So the problem lies clearly in his contract rate, within the zone.  Maybe Upton has a hole in his swing. Maybe not.  Either way, he has a full off-season to correct it, and should improve on last years numbers.

Conclusion and Comparison: Assuming he’s allowed to play through slumps, which is bound to happen with his contact rate being so low, Upton should man-the-fuck-up and get to 600 AB.  With that said, you’re essentially getting someone in the range of the underrated Jose Guillen. Mid-Twenties Homers, about 175 total R + RBI, and a batting average that can range from .250 to .290.

Verdict: It’s clear what Upton needs to improve on, very clear: K-rate and Contact Rate.  Set Jose Guillen as your base-line and move him up from there based on how well you think he’ll fair improving the holes in his game.  Feed the Machine, Feed it good.