Sure, maybe Andrew Bailey will just have a forearm strain, but hell, what would any of us write about if we couldn’t speculate? If we had to wait until we were one-hundred percent sure of an outcome, the guys at Yahoo! would blog less often than I do (20 posts per year, all in one gigantic clump).

So everyone seems to be assuming that since Brian Fuentes has closed before, he’ll close again. But, is he really the next best option? Hell, is he even the next-next best option or even the next-next-next best option? I don’t think so.

In 2010, Fuentes posted an 8.81 K-per-9 and a 3.75 BB-per-9 which was good for a 2.35 K-to-BB Ratio. Not too shabby, but Fuentes fastball velocity continued a downward trend and actually averaged less than 90mph for the first time in his career. Fuentes 2.81 ERA in 2010 is deceiving and due in large part to an unsustainable BABIP (.213) and LOB% (78.3%). Fuentes will dominate lefties, but he’s merely average against righties. This is a problem.

Grant Balfour on the other hand brings the heat with similar walk-rates (2.77BB-per-9 in 2010). While Balfour’s BB may regress, it’s fair to assume that he should be around Fuentes’ 3.75 BB-Rate. Balfour’s K-Rate is much, much better though: 9.11 K-per-9 in 2010 and Bill James predicts a 10.76 K/9 in 2011. Balfour’s 2.28 ERA in 2010 was probably dragged down by a very low HR-FB ratio, but expecting a full regression with a switch to Oakland probably isn’t realistic. Oakland provides all sorts of foul territory for a fly-ball pitcher like Balfour to use and Balfour deals with lefties and righties equally well.

After Balfour, there’s Michael Wuertz who had an off-year in 2010 and is dealing with a couple minor injuries. Wuertz should also be posting a BB-Rate somewhere in the mid-to-high threes like the other two candidates, but he like Fuentes lost a bit of velocity last year. Thankfully for the Athletics, Wuertz slowly added the velocity towards the end of the year and looks to be getting close to where he was in 2009. Wuertz is essentially the right-handed version of Fuentes. In 2010, Wuertz was absolutely awful against lefties walking them at a rate of 7+ BB-per-9 and posting an ugly FIP.

I’m not going to lie though, my absolute favorite for the closers role is Rich Harden. It wouldn’t surprise me if Harden starts the season out on the DL (i sorta expect it) but considering his recent injuries and loss of velocity, the closers role seems to be made for this guy. He’s got a great fastball (if he can get those 2 mph back) and an absolutely nasty splitter and slider combination.

I’m definitely rooting for Rich Harden to take the closers role by… lets say, May 21st.

Joey Devine, who was appointed the Athletics’ closer during Spring Training was placed on the 60-Day Disabled List on Saturday, and will probably require surgery on his elbow ligaments, essentially ending his season.

In steps Brad Ziegler, one of the genuinely nice guys in the big leagues.  Ziegler came to fame during his record setting streak of 39 scoreless innings to start a career. Ziegler throws from a side-arm, not quite submarine, delivery and was ridiculously effective in 2008.

…but maybe it was just luck, Ziegler had a lot of things working for him:

1. Batters hadn’t seen Ziegler’s unconventional delivery
2. Ziegler’s strand rate of 92.3% was unbelievable
3. Ziegler’s BABIP of .246 was equally as insane
4. All of this resulted in Ziegler’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.72 grossly outpacing his actual ERA of 1.06

So what’s the deal with Ziegler?

He’s a ground ball pitcher (67% GB) that pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, in front of a very solid defense. The A’s home stadium rated as the 5th most favorable park for pitchers according to ESPN’s park factors. Mind you, Ziegler’s ground ball tendencies don’t benefit quite as much from the spacious foul territory that makes McAfee Coliseum a pitchers-paradise.

Even with these things working for him, Ziegler still isn’t a prototypical closer. In 2008, Ziegler didn’t miss bats (4.53K/9), and in turn, posted a terribly mediocre BB:K rate of 1.36.

Ziegler’s splits are terribly concerning, as is generally the case with submariners. Ziegler allowed 2 HR all year, and both came against lefties. Ziegler’s WHIP against lefties was 1.52, compared to his 0.88 WHIP against righties. His batting average against echoed these sentiments as Righties hit .198 compared to the .280 that lefties hit.  In addition to Ziegler having issues with lefties, you should expect his LOB% and BABIP to regress towards the mean.

This isn’t good news for Ziegler owners, and I’d ship him as soon as he gets a couple saves under his belt.

Who Steps In?

Santiago Casilla was nearly un-hittable until a May 15th elbow injury forced him onto the DL.  Upon his return, his ERA slowly rose from a May 11th mark of 0.47, all the way to his season-ending number of 3.93.

Unlike Ziegler, Casilla does have your typical closers stuff: 94-95mph fastball, 87mph slider, and a mid-80′s change-up. His change seemed to be incorrectly categorized quite a bit last year, as it was clocked at an average of 88mph.

Casilla has better splits, and has predicted stats of: 8-9 K per 9, 3-4 BB per 9 and 2.00-2.50 K:BB

25 year old Jerry Blevins is another solid option, as the tools are there but he tops out at about 92mph.

Journeyman Russ Springer has nice peripherals, and a nice mix of pitches but they’ll probably be best served earlier in the game. Like Blevins, he tops out at about 92mph.

Andrew Bailey also has high strike-out potential, but his control doesn’t bode overly well for his status as a closer.  He’s best suited for mid-to-long relief.

In the end…

The saves will be spread around, but I think Casilla ends up with better save totals than Ziegler.

There’s really only one conclusion that I’d be willing to stake my name on, and that’s Brad Ziegler doesn’t succeed as a closer.  Unless everyone else falls flat on their face, he wont Brian Wilson or Kevin Gregg the situation either.

Ziegler’s a solid pitcher, and a nice weapon to have, but he’s best suited as a situational pitcher.

Whoever wins the closers gig, will benefit from the stadium, defense, and improved offense of the Athletics.

Photo Courtesy of Ztil301 & Kimberly*, Flickr