Adam Dunn

Elijah Dukes, Man Crush, Recalled From The ‘Cuse.

Entering the year, everyone knew that Washington was going to have some serious problems with their rotation but, at the very least, their offense was going to be respectable.

Jim Bowden had assembled some terrific young talent, and brought in a couple key free agents.  Unfortunately, the Washington Nationals found a way to let their premiere talent waste away on the bench, or in the minors, while trotting out league average scrubs day in, and day out.

To many, it appeared as though Bowden was building a fantasy baseball squad, where Adam Dunn and Josh Willingham would fill the UTIL spots while Elijah Dukes, Lastings Milledge, Corey Patterson, Willie Harris and Austin Kearns would split time in the outfield.

Elijah Dukes looked to have broken through in 2008, leaving the past behind, and becoming an actual ball-player.  Dukes’ was a terrific power/speed guy that managed to get on base at a .386-clip in 2008 — things were lookin’ up.

Lastings Milledge had a realistic shot at 20 HR / 20 SB this year, but we all know how that turned out.  Everyone understands that the kid doesn’t listen, won’t take a walk, and strikes out too much, but the talent is definitely there.

So rather than giving these two legitimate shots of improving as ball-players, the Washington Nationals decided that 30-year old Josh Willingham, and 29-year old Austin Kearns were going to be the future of their franchise.

Willingham has had a spectacular year, posting a .300 AVG /.412 OBP/.933 OPS slash-line in 2009, but he’s also the proud owner of a .329 BABIP and 20% HR/FB ratio.   When we look at 2009, we’re looking at Josh Willingham’s ceiling as a ballplayer.

Austin Kearns has been under the Mendoza line for almost the entire year, but has still managed 210 plate appearances.

Nyjer Morgan, acquired in the Milledge-deal,  provides a nice little spark plug and an unholy defensive improvement, but why are the Nationals trading for outfielders to begin with?

Jim Bowden and Manny Acta are both gone now, but they’ve left one hell of a mess. A mess that Mike Rizzo is attempting to clean up by trading Nick Johnson, who’s departure essentially freed up an outfield spot as Adam Dunn slid over to first base.

With that said, Elijah Dukes has found himself recalled to the Big Club.  It was around this time last year that Elijah Dukes started to catch fire and absolutely rake.  In 2009, much like 2008, it’ll probably come down to AB’s and not much else.  Dukes destroyed AAA pitching over the past month, posting a 1.13 BB/K ratio to compliment his .943 OPS.

Last night against the Pirates, Riggleman trotted Dukes out in the number six spot.  It’s a great spot for Dukes, hitting after Zimmerman, Dunn and Willingham, and should increase his RBI numbers substantially.  He may have the Catcher (Bard/Flores,) Second Baseman (Hernandez/Gonzalez,) and Pitcher hitting after him, but at least he’s not forced to hit after Christian Guzman and his .322 OBP.

At the start of the season, I predicted that Elijah Dukes and Washington’s incredibly solid offense would put up fairly surprising numbers.  Little did I know that Dukes would find his ass on the bench, and then in the Minors.  I’m still not ready to admit that I was wrong because there’s no explanation for the shit-show that went down in Washington but I’d recommend picking up Elijah Dukes as soon as possible, especially if he starts getting regular at-bats.

I’m left to wonder what kind of numbers Dukes would be sitting on if Acta had shown enough trust in him to give him regular at-bats.  The Nationals have the worst pitching in the league by a country mile, and I’ll never be able to wrap my head around why the Manager and General Manager didn’t let their young guys play.

Maybe I’m just clinging to the past, unable to admit that I was simply incorrect.

Adam Dunn

Washington: News-Worthy Notes, Note-Worthy News?

The Washington Nationals Won!

vs.

President Obama Declares Amnesty for CIA Torture Mongers

I’ll start with the Nationals winning their first game as I watch the season premiere of The Deadliest Catch Season 5 and doze off, hopefully before 2:00 AM. Read more

Adam Dunn

Top First Basemen In Keeper Dynasty League

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30′s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30′s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30′s to low-40′s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.

Adam Dunn

Adam Dunn, A Washington National? Fantasy Implications.

ESPN is reporting, along with just about everyone else, that Adam Dunn is ready to become a Washington National (link).  Assuming Dunn suits up for the Nats come spring, what exactly are the implications?

Position Alignment Washington Nationals:

The Nationals OF, is looking like Willingham in left-field, Milledge in Center, and Dukes in Right.  First base is occupied by the oft-injured Nick Johnson. Wily-Mo Pena, Austin Kearns and Corey Patterson were also figuring to get some ABs, and post a sub-.250 OBP but it looks like that may be put on hold.

Logically, it’d make sense for Willingham to be the first guy off the bench if everyone’s healthy. Milledge and Dukes have the raw talent, and Nick “the stick” Johnson is a perfect compliment for Dunn.

Reality is a different beast.  Josh Willingham will get his bats, because:

1. Nick Johnson has a season ending injury in Game 7 of the season.
2. Elijah Dukes can’t keep his head out of trouble
3. Milledge screws his hamstring up, somehow.

Dunn in Left, Milledge in CF, and Dukes in Right with Nick Johnson at first.  They have a tonne of versatility though, as both Dunn and Willingham can do a reasonably decent job at first.

Fantasy Impact of Adam Dunn Signing:

Nationals Park is no RFK stadium, which is good.  The Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati and Chase Field in Arizona, generally are a bit kinder to hitters than Nationals Park which finds itself in the middle of the pack based on limited data.

Park factors from ESPN

The Nationals are really pursuing a High-OBP type guys that I’m quite fond of, Line-up:

1. Christian Guzman — IF he can hit 300 and get on base at a .370 clip again — he’s my 1. He wont, so he’ll end up batting 6, with Milledge 1 and Dukes 2.

2. Lastings Milledge — If Milledge proves his ability to be a lead-off man, and actually get on base — this line-up becomes a lot better.

3. Zimmerman batted in the 3-hole all last year, and I doubt that’ll change.

4. Dunn bats fourth, and while that OBP may be better suited earlier …its hard to convince managers of such things

5. Johnson while he’s healthy.  If he’s *fully* healthy, he’s probably their best hitter and he’ll bring a .420 OBP to the table.  If the Nats didn’t have the speed they do, it’d be nice to see Johnson and Dunn batting early in the line-up.

6. Dukes is either my #2 or number 6.  I love Duke’s high OBP and decent average and he’ll scoot up once Guzman fails.

7. Jesus Flores

8. Anderson Hernandez

9. P

I’d like to obviously see a few changes in this line-up, like Dukes and Zimmerman switching it up. Maybe Zimmerman batting 5th? Either way, the OBP of this line-up is solid as a rock. The only problem is the “speedsters” Milledge and Guzman haven’t proven a consistent ability to get on base.

Dunn stays about where you’d value him in any other line-up and, I tend to think the entire Nationals line-up gets a boost from his acquisition.

Give everyone above Dunn a bump in RUNS of about 3-5 and everyone Below Dunn and Johnson an RBI bump of about 6.

This team will be one of the most interesting offenses in the league.  Lots of guys on base, lots of running, lots of homers.

What’s your take on the Nats line-up?

Adam Dunn

Top Fantasy Baseball Outfielders for 2009: Top 40? Top 60? Top 100? Who Knows.

There’s a lot of solid outfielders that can contribute to your fantasy squad.  Outfielders are like Starting Pitchers, there’s just too damn many of them. I tend to believe that ranking OF against each other is tough, as you have to choose a strategy and adjust your OF selections to fit that strategy.

The outfield positions will bring the most value to the table, and you’re liable to find the biggest steals here, as in most cases defense isn’t the largest priority.

Now, onto fantasy baseball’s 2009 top-whatever outfielders.

1. Grady Sizemore – Cleveland Indians

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Grady Sizemore	634	33	38	101	90	0.268	0.374	0.502	0.75	0.876

Sizemore tops the list, at least for now. The only fault on Sizemore is his batting average, which he more than takes care of with a .374 OBP.  Most people are more than willing to live with a .275 average, as long as the other categories are amazing.  Sizemore is almost assured another 30/30 season, and his RBI and RUN totals should increase with an improved Indians offense.

If you’re planning on grabbing cheap steals later in the draft, which is a solid option, maybe Sizemore isn’t the choice for #1.  You’d probably be safer hedging your bets with a high BA guy like Hamilton, Holliday, or Manny as drafting a Carlos Gomez, Michael Bourn, or Jerry Owens tends to lead to a rather predictable drop in BA.

If you’re a believer in drafting well rounded fantasy players, then Sizemore is a great building block — but personally I find you pay more for the all around guys.

2. Manny Ramirez – Free Agent, Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Manny Ramirez	552	37	3	102	121	0.332	0.43	0.601	0.7	1.031

This could get ugly, but Manny Ramirez is one hell of a  baseball player.  It looks as though the Dodgers wont be giving many anything more than a year or two, so you can bet Manny will be giving his best.

If the Dodgers pay Manny too little, he’ll decide he doesn’t care for this whole baseball-game.  If they reward his idiocy with a long term contract, god help them because Manny will play when Manny wants to play.

With that said, Manny Ramirez isn’t going to run but everything else is the picture of perfection. In a potent Dodgers line-up his R and RBI totals should be terrific.  Manny’s batting average can fix a lot of high risk/reward guys and gives you a terrific safety net.

If Manny actually plays for the Dodgers, he’ll be better than Braun or Hamilton. If Manny and Boras decide to keep shitting the bed, who knows how far he’ll drop.

3. Ryan Braun – Milwaukee Brewers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ryan Braun	611	37	14	92	106	0.285	0.335	0.553	0.33	0.888

Ryan Braun is a solid pick here, and he’s average across the board when you compare him to the elite guys. He’ll hit somewhere around 35HR, and steal somewhere around 10-15 bases. Braun’s got the potential to steal up to about 20 bases, but who knows if he’ll run that much.

The .285 average, and a combined 200 runs and rbi make a solid outfielder. Braun’s still very young and he’ll continue to improve so long as he maintains his plate discipline.

4. Josh Hamilton – Texas Rangers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Josh Hamilton	624	32	9	98	130	0.304	0.371	0.53	0.51	0.901

Hamilton was a steal last year, and now he’s ranked as the fourth best outfielder.  Who know’s if the wheels with just fall off, but I suppose you have to look at Hamilton in the same light as a productive sophomore.

There’s no sophomore slump in sight, and you can place a bit more confidence in his abilities than you would a normal rookie.

Hamilton proved to be an early season RBI machine, and Texas’ line-up is quite the machine. A 300 average to go with 35 HR, and ridiculous RBI numbers seem like a solid bet.

A .5 BB/K ratio should be enough to keep your doubts at bay.  Look for Hamilton to be productive throughout the season, and there’s no reason to expect a return to past-drug-addicted-form.

5. Matt Holliday – Oakland Athletics

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Matt Holliday	539	25	28	107	88	0.321	0.409	0.538	0.71	0.947

Matt Holliday’s numbers last year were terrific for his 539 AB, however without the trade to Oakland — things could change.

There was a recent article on fangraphs examining whether or not Holliday’s stolen base numbers would drop with the switch to Billy Beane’s Money-Ball loving style, and the answer was no. If Holliday continues to be successful stealing bases, the Athletics will let him run.

Aside from that, Holliday is going to an extreme pitchers park and leaving Coors’ field.  Problem.  Holliday is also switching leagues, and may take a while to adjust to American League pitching. Problem.

With that said, Holliday is a great ball player with a great eye.  He’ll still produce solid HR numbers, but most of his power will translate to gappers and extra-base hits.  This is good news for his RBI totals.

Since the departure of Giambi, the A’s really haven’t had anyone to knock in the trillions of guys they get on base with walks.  Now, they have that guy in Holliday to go along with the return of Jason Giambi.  Good news for A’s fans, Good news for Holliday owners.

6. Carlos Beltran – New York Mets

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Beltran	606	27	25	116	112	0.284	0.376	0.5	0.96	0.876

Beltran’s a solid player, and you could rank him as high as second in this list. The top-tier outfielders really tend to blend together, and you should draft one based on your strategy in the later rounds rather than who you think will perform best.  Beltran and Braun tend to be guys that’ll just contribute across the board, so if you’re solely drafting value: these are your guys.

Rarely will you win a draft with your first or second round pick, so it may be wise to play the safest bet on the board which favours Beltran.  Beltran’s 2005 mid-life crisis seems like eons ago, and he’s become a solid bet for 30/30 each and every year. While he’s never managed to get there as a member of the Mets; It’s a fair assumption to say his HR and SB will add up to around 60.

There appears to be a slight decline in Beltran’s power, but 30HR seems to be about the standard mark for prediction models.

…and then the sure things ended.

7. B.J. Upton – Tampa Bay Rays

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
B.J. Upton	531	9	44	85	67	0.273	0.383	0.401	0.72	0.784

Upton’s numbers are enticing when you see how many at-bats he managed.  Maybe injuries continue to plague Upton, but more likely he’ll Man-Up and get it done.

The SLG percentage is worrisome for someone who was supposed to have it all, but as with many young players — he’ll grow into it.  All of the other indicators are there, and if you’re looking for a little bit of risk with a lot of upside look no further.

Upton could easily hit 50 steals to go along with 20 HR.  Lets just hope he stays healthy.

8. Alfonso Soriano

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Alfonso Soriano	453	29	19	76	75	0.28	0.344	0.532	0.42	0.876

Everything looks good in Soriano land, other than the 453 AB.  Soriano is another guy who’s got a shot at going 30/30 but he’s far from a sure thing.  Soriano should be higher, especially if he finds his swing early in the season.

Playing in a stacked Cubs line-up keeps the risk to a minimum.  Basically, we’ve got ourselves another referendum on whether or not Alfonso Soriano can stay healthy.

9. Carlos Quentin – Chicago White Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Quentin	480	36	7	96	100	0.288	0.394	0.571	0.83	0.965

There comes a time in every can’t miss prospects life, where he’s just got ball the fuck out.  Carlos Quentin decides last year was that time.  If not for an injury that annoyed the hell out of fantasy owners enjoying the ride: Carlos Quentin would have been your AL MVP.

10. Jason Bay – Boston Red Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jason Bay	577	31	10	111	101	0.286	0.373	0.522	0.59	0.895

Commence operation over-valued. We have lift-off.  I’ve yet to play in a fantasy league where a Red Sox player is drafted ’round ’bout where they should go.  Jason Bay is a stellar talent, but odds are he’ll go too high.

If Bay doesn’t go in the first round, he’ll contribute across the board. So much so that his R and RBI totals will just look dandy with a health Red Sox line-up surrounding him for an entire year.

11. Matt Kemp – Los Angeles Dodgers

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Matt Kemp	606	18	35	93	76	0.29	0.34	0.459	0.3	0.799

It’s fun to predict improvement for absolutely no reason other than a gut feeling and the time-tested, but useless, mantra: “He’ll get better with age”.

Matt Kemp’s strikeout to walk ratio isn’t pretty and his OBP of .340 isn’t all that sexy when you consider he’s a .290 hitter.

But Kemp’s young, and he’s definitely got a whole-hella lot of upside.  His HR should be closer to his steals this year. Whether or not that means his HR go up or his steals come down, is up to you.

12. Carlos Lee – Houston Astros

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Carlos Lee	436	28	4	61	100	0.314	0.368	0.569	0.76	0.937

Lee’s going to be a steal, wherever you draft him.  While throwing together this list, I even forgot about his all around awesomeness.

A .937 OPS will get it done, and done well. 28 HR in 436 AB also tends to get it done.  After so many years of 600+ AB, Bill James has him the highest at 573 AB for the 2009.  If Carlos returns to form and tops 600 AB, he’ll be a top 3 or 4 OF and probably put up Josh Hamilton type numbers.

Just keep an eye on Carlos Lee’s health and definitely mark him down in your under-ranked superstar category.

13. Nick Markakis – Baltimore Orioles

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Nick Markakis	595	20	10	106	87	0.306	0.406	0.491	0.88	0.897

Nick Markakis is another guy with all-world talent, who can smash the shit out of the baseball if he chooses that option.

With an OBP of over .400 in 2008, he’s primed for a break out year — and I do mean breakout.  I have Markakis putting up stellar numbers in an Orioles offense that’ll prove its worth.  The Orioles seem to have all the pieces required to put together a solid season on offense.

Nick Markakis should hit 30 HR and drive in a bundle.  Maybe I’ll move Markakis up at some point.

…and now onto the mess that is stolen bases

14. Jacoby Elsbury – Boston Red Sox

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Jacoby Ellsbury	554	9	50	98	47	0.28	0.336	0.394	0.51	0.729

Ellsbury can boogy, but there’s no reason to think that he’ll improve dramatically on his HR numbers. Somewhere between 8 and 13 HR for the 2009 season seems about right, but you’re not buying Ellsbury based on HR.

Ellsbury’s stolen base numbers should float somewhere in the high-forties to low-fifties, and his runs scored should improve.

15. Ichiro Suzuki – Seattle Mariners

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Ichiro Suzuki	686	6	43	103	42	0.31	0.361	0.386	0.78	0.747

Everything that Ichiro can control will remain consistent with career numbers, but I haven’t the slightest clue whom Ichiro Suzuki is going to drive in or who’s going to knock him in.

Maybe this is the year that Ichiro says screw it, and knocks out 20 HR.  He’s definitely got the power, but I’d expect a downturn in numbers not an upswing.

16. Shane Victorino – Philadelphia Phillies

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Shane Victorino	570	14	36	102	58	0.293	0.352	0.447	0.65	0.799

A few more HR than Ichiro and a few less steals.  The BA isn’t going to top .300 but Victorino is a solid player, that’ll greatly benefit  from  a Jimmy Rollins comeback-year.

If Victorino can get off to a better start than 2008, he’ll have a terrific year and more than likely be a top tier-2 outfielder.

…and now back to reality

17. Vladimir Guerrero – Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Vladimir Guerrero	541	27	5	85	91	0.303	0.365	0.521	0.66	0.886

How the mighty have fallen, or aged, or have just been plagued by a back-pain induced slump. 150 Games seems about right, which should bring Guerrero closer to the 30 HR, 100 R mark than he was last year.

Everything else should be the Guerrero you’ve come to expect.  About 110 RBI, and a .310 batting average.  There’s a good amount of risk that comes with Guerrero, but there’s also an insane amount of reward.

The benefit of rostering Guerrero, is you’ll generally know ahead of time when he’s getting a day off.

18. Magglio Ordonez – Detroit Tigers

This isn’t annoying. I type for 2 hours only to have my data erased by WordPress. God love it.  Remember when Magglio hit .363 and drove in 130-something runs?  How about we average the last two years of his career and stick him here.  The Detroit Tigers will be better.

19. Carl Crawford – Tampa Bay Rays

Remember when Carl Crawford was a first round pick in almost every league? He’s still that good.  2008 was a down-year but he’ll fix that quick-fast.

20. Curtis Granderson – Detroit Tigers

Remember when everyone talked about Granderson being the only guy to hit x number of doubles, triples, and homers..  ever?  Well he started last year like crap, and just managed to be average for the majority of the year.  He’ll score a lot of runs, and come pretty close to the 25+ bases he stole 2 years ago.

21. Alex Rios – Toronto Blue Jays

Remember how the scouts said Alexi Rios was a 4.5 tool player, and that he should develop power to go with his massive frame? Well, instead of improving on his 24 HR season, he regressed but managed to steal 30+ bases.  Screwy, huh?

22. Adam Dunn – Free Agent

Dunn’s a top 10 OF if your league uses OBP instead of average. Dunn’s also a great choice if you decide to go ahead and punt average.  However, if you’re just playing it based on value you’re going to need 2 guys to cancel out the potential for another .240 season from Dunn. The upside is he only registers 500 AB, making that .240 a bit more tolerable.

23. Corey Hart – Milwaukee Brewers

I hate great white hopes, especially fast ones.  Hart Swings at everything and it’s annoying, but he gets the job done none the less. He’s got a boat-load of upside and he’ll be cashing in on that upside sooner rather than later.

24. Raul Ibanez – Philadelphia Phillies

2008 stats	AB	HR	SB	R	RBI	AVG	OBP	SLG	BB/K	OPS
Raul Ibanez	635	23	2	85	110	0.293	0.358	0.479	0.58	0.837

Ibanez is undervalued each and every year, and yet he produces each and every year.  This may be a reach, but the switch to Citizens Bank Ballpark should do more than offset the league switch.  Maybe you’re best bet is to trade for Ibanez a month into the season before he’s found his grove.

Either way, in that line-up Ibanez is going to be dangerous. Some of his doubles, will turn into homers as soon as he realize he’s no longer in baseball hell.

25. Bobby Abreu – Free Agent

Where does he land? I dont know. Rumors have him going to the south side of Chicago.  I wouldn’t expect 20/20 but this old guy can still boogy.

26. Jermaine Dye – Chicago White Sox

An oldy but a goody! Expect another slight decline in Dye’s numbers

27. Nate McLouth – Pittsburgh Pirates

I’m not sure if he’ll repeat the power numbers, but bad teams seem to steal.  I’m just not sure if he can repeat.

28. Ryan Ludwick – St. Louis Cardinals

Same holds true for Ludwick.  Batting between Pujols and Glaus will make even the worst power-hitter viable.  With Glaus out, who know’s what kind of pitches Ludwick will see in 2009.

29. Johnny Damon – New York Yankees

Will Johnny Damon stay healthy in a massively crowded Yankees outfield / designated hitter mess? That is the question.

30. Torii Hunter – Anaheim Angels

He just keeps producing.  In 6 years, this is what Chris Young will be.

31. Pat Burrell – Tampa Bay Rays

A change of scenery should be nice for Burrell. Hopefully he can break his streak of being down-right awful after posting a great season.

32. Chris Young – Arizona Diamondbacks

Speed, Power, everything you look for in a young kid.  Unfortunately he has no eye, which terrifies most of the younger Diamondback fans.

33. Brad Hawpe – Colorado Rockies

Improved on his splits, and has a boat-load of power.  Could finally put it together?

34. Xavier Nady – New York Yankees

Another piece of the crowded Yankees outfield.  If there is one thing that’s certain in life, it’s that Xavier Nady will have a ridiculous first month and a half of the season.

35. Hunter Pence – Houston Astros

Still young enough to remember what it’s like to hit above .300 with power and speed.

36. Lastings Milledge – Washington Nationals

Breakthrough year? Yes please.  I like each and every part of this Nationals outfield, with Milledge leading the way.

37. Jay Bruce – Cincinnati Reds

When you’re universally considered one of the top prospects in baseball, you’re normally pretty good.  Bruce had a mediocre 2008 after a torrid start to the season.  Temper your enthusiasm, but he’ll be great as soon as this year.

38. Jack Cust – Oakland Athletics

Power o’ Plenty.  With the amount of low-average guys out there, i’m starting to think that this may be the perfect year to punt AVG.

39. Nick Swisher – New York Yankees

With that said, if you’re going to go ahead and punt average go ahead and pick Nick.  Swisher’s skill-set remained the same, but he got very very unlucky.  He’ll score a lot of runs, and get on-base a tonne.

40. Eric Byrnes – Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks outfield situation is pretty confusing, but when Byrnes plays he’s a difference maker.  Since he’s already injured both his left and right hamstring, there’s nothing left for him to hurt — right?

41. Jason Werth – Philadelphia Phillies

I’m a huge Jason Werth fan, and i’m hoping he gets the lions share of the AB in right field.  Geoff Jenkins is nice, but he isn’t a body double for “The Edge”.

42. Mike Cameron – Milwaukee Brewers

Another low-average guy that you may just want to own. He hit 25 HR and stole 17 Bases in only a 140 games last year.  If you can deal / cope with the sure-fire sub-.250 average, you’ve got yourself a steal.

43. Vernon Wells – Toronto Blue Jays

Vernon was plagued by injuries, again.  He wont run, because he’s always hurt.  He wont hit long bombs, because he’s already gettin’ paid.  One of the most overpaid, overvalued, plays in the game finally sings a redemption song. Maybe he gets back to topping 30HR and 15SB.

44. Milton Bradley – Chicago Cubs

An OPS machine, that has a temper. Where you value him depends largely upon how many games you think he’ll play.  I cannot make that decision for you, but I’m banking on 130 G.

45. Shin-Soo Choo – Cleveland Indians

The BABIP is ridiculous, which leads to all his other stats being stupid silly.  The hype-machine is hungry,  so  I shall feed it.

46. Jose Guillen – Kansas City Royals

I’ve got a soft-spot in my heart for this former top-prospect.  Mainly because he can do absolutely everything you’d want from an outfielder. Guillen never walks, and he swings for the fences.  If Guillen can keep his BA around the .290 range — he’s good to go.  Personally, I’m willing to admit that I have Guillen rated too high, but he does hit 25 HR and drive in almost 100 every year.

47. Elijah Dukes – Washington Nationals

My most favouritest sleeper out there.  Dukes can ball, but he’s got a whole lot of Guillen in him.  If he can stay on the field, and out of stank-ass cooters, he’ll have a break-out year.

48. Carlos Gomez – Minnesota Twins

Here we go again with another low-average gentleman.  Gomez is quick-fast and will steal you 40 bases in 2009.  He’s just gotta keep that average above .25o become a very useful cog.

49. Justin Upton – Arizona Diamondbacks

He’s a year away, but he could put up solid numbers through the 2009 season.  As mentioned earlier, the Diamondbacks situation is confusing and I’m not sure how many .250 hitters they plan on rostering.  There’s really no harm in taking a shot on Upton at this point because if he hits, he’s really going to hit.

50. Hideki Matsui – New York Yankees

The Yankees DH. ‘Nuff said.

51. Cameron Maybin – Florida Marlins

Stolen from the Tigers, Cameron Maybin’s got a tonne of athletic ability but no hitters eye in sight. If he can retain the starting field gig for the entire year, 40 SB and 20 HR could be a possibility.  Maybe a pipe dream.  Hell, everyone’s gotta take some risks.

52. Andre Ethier – Los Angeles Dodgers

Can hit.  Not quite sure how the Dodgers situation will play out, but it seems as though Ethier always finds a way to work himself into the line-up.  You could do worse.

53. Delmon Young – Minnesota Twins

Delmon lost his power stroke and started hitting copious amounts of ground-balls.  He’s still a Grade-A hunk of beef and he’s got muscles on-top of muscles, but somethings off.  If Delmon realizes he’s awesome, the improvement wont come in baby-steps. It’ll come in giant, 30HR season type leaps.

54. J.D Drew – Boston Red Sox

Great line-up, Can’t stay healthy.

55. Rick Ankiel – St. Louis Cardinals

Ankiel is making a nice transition, but when is this party going to end.  He should be the one benefiting from the loss of Glaus, and I woudln’t be surprised to see Ankiels numbers go up and Ludwicks dip.

56. Travis Snider – Toronto Blue Jays

Far too high, but the potential is crazy nutty.  In case you haven’t noticed, I’m a Jays season ticket holder who <3s the Travis Snider.

57. Willy Taveras – Cincinnati Reds

Run Willy Run.  He’ll score a good amount of runs in the Cincinnati line-up and he’ll steal just as many bases as you’d expect. I expect 55.

58. David Murphy – Texas Rangers

I take this back, I didn’t mean it.

59. Adam Jones – Baltimore Orioles

Jones should improve and Orioles fans can continue mocking Mariners fans.  God  what a terrible trade.

60. Jeremy Hermida – Florida Marlins

When your swing is as sweet as Hermida’s you cant be this awful. Damnit, nutsac stop striking out.

61. Josh Willingham – Washington Nationals

The final piece of the Nationals OF should knock in the other two pieces.  Maybe Willingham can still play Catcher?

62. Coco Crisp – Kansas City Royals

He should steal, and he can still play.  I like the Royals quite a bit this year. They shoudl be fun to watch.

63. Jeff Francoeur – Atlanta Braves

Hrm.  Can Francoeur be this bad?  He coudln’t hit the broad side of a barn last year.  All signs point to yes, he can be this bad.  I have a hunch he’ll break out, but do you have a hunch?

64. Michael Bourn – Houston Astros

He’ll steal bases and improve with the stick. If you’ve sacraficed steals early in order to nail down a solid BA, it’s now time to grab a guy like Bourn.

65. Juan Pierre – Los Angeles Dodgers

This is a tentative agreement between me and Juan Pierre assuming that Manny isn’t signed.  If Pierre plays, he’ll get on base with cheap little singles and then proceed to steal.

66. Kosuke Fukudome – Chicago Cubs

Pitchers adapted to him, and now it’s his turn to adapt to the pitching.  He should be solid, I promise you.  If you’re board take a look at his month by month BABIP, it’s wacko.

67. Jason Kubel – Minnesota Twins

The Kubes. I draft this scrub every year, but not this year.  Which means Kubel goes for 30 HR and a .285 average.

68. Chris Dickerson – Cincinnati Reds

Well, he started to impress me, and then stopped. Keep an eye on the situation over in Cincinnati, it could get interesting.

69. Adam Lind – Toronto Blue Jays

Realistically, Lind and Snider should be switched on this list.  But we don’t deal in realism. Lind should be in for a super-solid season, and he’ll be a steal come draft day.

…and there comes a time where you decide whether or not you want someone with a starting gig for an entire season or crazy-awesome potential.

70. David DeJesus – Kansas City Royals

71. Cody Ross – Florida Marlins

72. Matt Joyce – Tampa Bay Rays

73. Randy Winn – San Francisco Giants

74. Felix Pie – Baltimore Orioles

75. Jerry Owens- Chicago White Sox

76. Carlos Gonzalez – Colorado Rockies

77. Michael Cuddyer – Minnesota Twins

78. Daniel Murphy – New York Mets

79. Ryan Church – New York Mets

80. Melky Cabrera – New York Yankees

81. Marcus Thames – Detroit Tigers

82. Nelson Cruz – Texas Rangers

83. Fred Lewis – San Francisco Giants

84. Juan Rivera – Anaheim Angels

85. Denard Span – Minnesota Twins

86. Chase Headley – San Diego Padres

87. Ryan Spilborghs – Colorado Rockies

88. Jerry Hairston Jr. – Cincinnati Reds

89. Colby Rasmus – St Louis Cardinals

90. Franklin Gutierrez – Seattle Mariners

91. Ben Francisco – Cleveland Indians

92. Matt LaPorta – Cleveland Indians

93. Steven Pearce – Pittsburgh Pirates

94. Nyjer Morgan – Pittsburgh Pirates

95. Seth Smith – Colorado Rockies

96. Luke Scott – Baltimore Orioles

97. Aaron Rowand – San Francisco Giants

98. Andrew McCutchen – Pittsburgh Pirates

99. Brian Giles – San Diego Padres

100. The Entire Oakland A’s outfield, ugh. Seriously: Davis, Patterson, Sweeney, Buck, and Cunningham.

Keep an eye on…

101. Ryan Freel – Baltimore Orioles

102. Josh Anderson – Atlanta Braves

103. Eric Hinske – Pittsburgh Pirates

104. Jason Heyward (wishfull thinking) – Atlanta Braves

105. Skip Schumaker – St. Louis Cardinals

106. Mark Teahan – Kansas City Royals

107. Gary Matthews Jr – Anaheim Angels

108.  Andruw Jones – Parts Unknown