Second-base is tough to predict in a dynasty league because. For the most part second base and third base are positions inhabited by limited range short stops. The only non-eligible second basemen I’ll toss in is Dustin Ackley and maybe Ivan DeJesus Jr. if Casey Blake stays hurt… If I’ve missed someone or dropped someone, it’s probably an eligibility, stupidity or Yahoo! Player Pool thing.

1. Robinson Cano — Age 28 – Best of the best in the middle of the Yankees line-up.

2. Dustin Pedroia — Age 27 — Pedroia’s receding hairline lead me to believe that he was almost thirty.

3. Ian Kinsler — Age 29 – Probably only a couple years left of SB, but the power will probably remain.

4. Chase Utley — Age 32 – You’ve got about 3 years left at an elite level, even if 2011 is starting out rough.

5. Rickie Weeks — Age 28 – Rickie Weeks finally impressed. Good option going forward.

6. Dan Uggla — Age 31 — Power, lots of Power. Looks good in Atlanta. Could easily be a fantasy option for five more years.

7. Brandon Phillips — Age 30 — Phillips is a good option here.

8. Martin Prado — Age 27 – Second base eligibility is in question, so I don’t know where to rate Prado. He’s still extremely useful.

9. Kelly Johnson — Age 29 — Finally flashed the power that we all grew to love.

10. Dustin Ackley — Age 22 – Best of the best when it comes to prospects. I don’t think his ceiling is as high as some people project.

11. Ben Zobrist — Age 29 — Eligibility is always a problem.

12. Gordon Beckham — Age 24 – Once an absolutely top-prospect, Beckham’s value is hard to project.

13. Aaron Hill — Age 29 — Should see a nice bounce back season and could easily surpass Johnson and Prado.

14. Brett Lawrie — Age 21 – It’s going to be tough for Lawrie to stick at second base, but I think his power potential is there.

15. Neil Walker — Age 24 — Great season last year. We’ll see if he can keep it up.

16. Tsuyoshi Nishioka — Age 26 – This should get interesting.

17. Howie Kendrick — Age 27 — This group of second basemen from about 11 to here are one and the same.

18. Brad Emaus — Age 25 – I’ve got a good feeling about Emaus and he’s been named the opening day starter. Nice risk-reward here.

19. Danny Espinosa — Age 24 – He might put it together, but I’m not leaning one way or the other.

20. Sean Rodriguez — Age 26 – I think he’ll have a great 2011, but there’s going to be some roster eligibility problems.

21. Mike Aviles — Age 30 – Boring.

22. Brian Roberts — Age 33 — I don’t know when he’ll fall apart, but I got a feeling it’ll be soon.

23. Reid Brignac — Age 25 — Limited upside. Limited positional eligibility at second.

24. Chone Figgins — Age 33 – Getting Old but there should be a couple useful seasons.

25. Jason Kipnis — Age 24 – Kipnis is still a couple years away but he’s got the talent to succeed at the big league level. I can see a situation where he goes 20th.

26. Juan Uribe — Age 32 — Useful but old.

27. Placido Polanco — Age 35 – Useful but old.

28. Ruben Tejada — Age 21 – The Mets were aggressive with Tejada last year. They were also aggressive with Jennry Meija. Both weren’t bright moves and Tejada is probably much further away than you’d expect.

29. Omar Infante — Age 29 — Does everything and should have a great season in 2011.

30. Ty Wigginton — Age 33 — Again, Wigginton does everything.

31. Eric Young Jr. — Age 26 — Will this be the year? He’s got tools, but second-base eligibility is in question

32. Ryan Raburn — Age 30 – Again, 2011 should be great value at second base, but eligibility is in question.

33. Orlando Hudson — Age 33 – Should provide a useful season. Always provides a useful season.

34. Ryan Theriot — Age 31 – Definitely interesting in 2011, but the long-term value isn’t there.

35. Jeff Baker — Age 29 — Just scored himself the second base job in Chicago-land and will be a great deep-league sleeper.

36. Skip Schumaker — Age 31 — I’m not exactly a fan of Skip Schumaker, but his bat plays well at second base.

37. Carlos Guillen — Age 35 — Old but productive. Out for the start of the 2011 Season.

38. Darwin Barney — Age 25 – Young and fairly talented. Might get to slip into the second basemen’s job at some point this year, but it’ll be a tough ride.

39. Todd Frazier — Age 25 – I’m not sure what to think of Frazier. He used to be a top prospect but he continues to show perfectly average skills. If you like gambling, here’s the spot to do it.

40. Ivan DeJesus Jr. — Age 23 – He busted his leg up and his status suffered. With Casey Blake’s injury, DeJesus should be getting some playing time in early 2011 and could impress. He’s got the potential to be sneaky good.

41. Freddy Sanchez — Age 33 — Old and useful.

42. Alberto Collaspo — Age 27 – Pretty Bland. Swings at everything.

43. Chris Getz — Age 27 — I’m not a Getz fan.

44. Mark Ellis — Age 34 – Ellis just continues to get it done but there’s a bunch of kids after his job.

45. Jerry Hairston Jr. — Age 34 — Hairston will probably only have this year as 2B-eligible, but he’s a great sleeper.

46. Marco Scutaro — Age 35 — Productive.

47. Bill Hall — Age 31 — In Houston, everyone’s useful, right?

48. Mike Fontenot — Age 30 — Should get the ABs

49. Everth Cabrera — Age 24 – Jason Barlett at SS and O-Dawg at 2B. He’ll get AB at somepoint.

50. Alexei Casilla — Age 26 – Ugh.

51. Clint Barmes — Age 32 — Should be a decent option in 2011 but out 4-6 Weeks.

52. Eric Patterson — Age 27 – Seems like he’s been hyped forever. Should succeed in his new home, but 2B-eligibility probably gone.

53. Scott Sizemore — Age 26 — Fairly boring.

54. Luis Castillo — Age 35 – Could provide useful numbers in Utley’s absense.

55. Angel Sanchez — Age 27 — Fills in for Barmes. Not exciting at all.

55. Eric Sogard — Age 24 — One of the A’s youngsters vying for the 2B job. Adrian Cardenas is the other. Bother aren’t exactly top-notch prospects. Good everyday regulars though, I guess.

56. Blake DeWitt — Age 25 – Lost his job and I’ve decided to rank him after Barney and Baker

57. Luis Hernandez — Age 26 – Fairly uninteresting.

58. Tony Abreu — Age 26 – Fairly uninteresting

Aaron Hill has quickly become one of the most overvalued underrated players in baseball. It’s actually beginning to blow my mind, because it’s proof that advanced metrics are really seeping into the everyday fantasy baseball decision making process.

Aaron Hill had an awful 2010. If he repeats 2010, he’s a late-round pick that should be platooned. Hill’s home-run numbers and position still pretty much guarantee him a spot on somebody’s fantasy roster, especially if that somebody is just punting BA.

According to ESPN, Aaron Hill’s going 113th overall and is the 11th best second-base option. I find that number to be staggering. Here’s ESPN’s projections:

They’re basically saying that 2010 was a complete fluke and Hill’s power is absolutely, positively legit. Hill’s 2009 season is still in the minds of many fantasy owners (36HR/103R/108RBI/6SB/.286AVG) and they’re considering that as his upside. The Toronto Blue Jays of 2011 aren’t the Toronto Blue Jays of 2009 and 2010 though and you should be tempering your *upside estimates* for someone like Hill.

The Hardball Times does a great job dissecting Hill’s 2010 season and it hardly seems like Hill was just unlucky. But, the moderately informed statistician looking at Hill’s 2010 season just sees his atrocious BABIP. ESPN’s player rater has this blurb to only further the problem:

Think you’re unlucky? Even though Hill hit 26 homers in 2010, his batting average plummeted to .205 thanks to a .196 batting average on balls in play. To put that in perspective, that was almost 100 points below his career mark and 30 points below the next-lowest mark in the majors. That’s unlucky. Also consider that Hill’s strikeout rate held steady and that his walk rate improved, and it jibes with the scouting that says Hill hit the ball hard right at a lot of people for much of the year. He hit just .125 against southpaws, a mark that won’t be repeated. A lot of other fantasy players will be down on him, which means there’s definite profit potential here for the savvy owner. Hill could have a bounce-back season that puts him among the top 10 at the second base position again.

Yet, as the Hardball Times piece shows, it’s more than just luck. Hill was a different player with a different approach and it’s a very real possibility that he’ll have problems reverting to the past.

If Hill does reclaim his past skills though, I’d assume that he’d be sacrificing power and I see more of the 2007 Aaron Hill than the 2009 Aaron Hill. Second base is definitely shallow, but with guys like Gordon Beckham and Neil Walker out there, I find it tough to justify Aaron Hill at 113th overall.

BABIP isn’t truly random. It depends on *how* you’re hitting the ball. To assume that Hill will just automatically reclaim his average while maintaining his power stroke is a bit of a stretch for me. Hill’s at the point in the draft where people start thinking “Oh, Shit. I need a second basemen” and he’s not a turrrible choice, but I’d definitely be drafting another second basemen in the next handful of rounds after Hill.

I think 75R/19HR/79RBI/.270/5SB is probably fair value for Hill not ESPN’s predicted 79R/25HR/74RBI/.269/4SB, but I guess there’s always a shot in hell that he does another Dan Uggla impersonation and posts Top-50 numbers.

In shallow leagues, it makes sense to take that risk because you can simply grab someone off the trash-heap or trade for Mr. Sean Rodriguez (ADP 193) and he’ll do what he does. In deeper leagues though, it’ll be hard to find a replacement and you’ll be stuck with a streaky second basemen at a position where you need a contribution.

Dallas Braden left the Oakland loss in the fourth inning with a sore ankle.  Braden had issued an unearned run and three hits in four innings before allowing a couple walks and being pulled.  Braden believes that he’ll make his next scheduled start.

Braden’s counterpart, Jeremy Guthrie, pitched six innings allowing one earned run for the quality start.  Guthrie walked three batters while only striking out a couple. As I’ve said before, Guthrie’s a rate-stat only fantasy pitcher with a penchant for keeping his BABIP low by inducing groundballs and catchable flies.  Guthrie’s FIP, xFIP and tERA will always trend above his actual ERA but hoping for a continuation of 3.64 ERA is a pipe dream.  Jeremy Guthrie is the king of average, and you should probably expect that going forward.

Jake Peavy got lit up by the Sizemore-less Cleveland Indians.  Peavy allowed 6ER on 8H but only walked a single batter while striking out 5.  Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald went deep off of Peavy.  Peavy hasn’t looked like this since his second year in the league (2007) where he went 12-11 with an ERA of 4.11 and a FIP of almost five.  The strike-outs are still there (8.02K/9) but the walks have ballooned past 3 and a half.

Mitch Talbot lowered his ERA to 3.73 and WHIP to 1.28 with a 7 inning, 2 earned run ball game against the Sox.  At this point, shutting down the Sox is nothing to celebrate.  After starting the season with an ERA in the twos, Talbot’s had 3 bad games in his last five (Jays, Detroit, and KC).

Travis Hafner’s average is up to .281 after a couple of hits but it’s an empty average.  Hafner’s power is nowhere near his career mark and his ISO is under .150.  There’s some good news on the horizon though, just not 30HR news.  Over the last 8-games, Hafner’s managed extra bases (4Doubles, 1HR) in five.  Hafner’s working on a 12-Game hitting streak, too!  For someone that started May with a .197 AVG and .324 SLG, closing it out with a .281 AVG and .430 SLG is pretty impressive.

Jason Heyward went 2-for-4 with a couple RBIs and now has a .296/.415/.578 line which makes for one hell of a .992 OPS.

Cameron Maybin had 2 hits and a DINGER! but this is me ignoring those numbers.

Maybe Anibal Sanchez gets his own article after 6.1IP of 5H, 2ER, 6K baseball.

Life sure is good for Martin Prado who now has 32 Runs on the year after a 3hit, 1R night.  Batting ahead of Heyward et. al means 52% of your pitches will be in the zone and almost 65% will be fastballs.

Doumit hit a homer and Andrew McCutchen had a couple hits to raise his BA to .324.  McCutchen’s .371 BABIP is high for even him — he’s more of a .290 hitter.

Mike Leake magically turned 10 hits and a walk into only a single earned run.  Leake went 7.1 innings and struck out three — This kid can pitch and if this were a different year (read. no Heyward,) he’d be the odds on favourite to win the NL ROY.

Lester walked FIVE! batters and gave up one hit in his 6 inning, 0ER, 9K performance.  Despite the walks, he’s back to being Jon Lester, future Cy Young award winner. A single by Wily Aybar was the only hit on the day against Lester.  I’m starting to think that the Rays enjoy being no-hit.

James Shields allowed 2 ER, 4H, 2BB while striking out 5 over his 8 inning stint.  Shields pitched a terrific game and is still amongst the elite.

Mike Cameron is back, yet it was Ellsbury rather than Hermida that sat.

Jose Reyes stole 2 bases, had 3 hits, and scored 3 runs last night.  He is an elite shortstop, even if the power’s not there.

R.A. Dickey had 7K in 6IP but I’d rather not discuss a knuckleballer.  Dickey managed to get his way out of three bases loaded jams in the first three innings, so thing’s aren’t exactly exciting.

Derrek Lee hit a homer but the BA is still a concern — Lee’s hitting 21% LD and his BABIP is .262 so there’s definitely room for improvement. ZiPS has him hitting .280 the rest of the season.

Ryan Dempster looked great holding LA scoreless while allowing three hits while striking out seven and walking a single batter.

Clayton Kershaw only allowed 4 H and a couple of walks but it once again took him 100+ pitches to get through 6IP.

Vladdy Guerrero went off for a couple of DINGERS! in his 5RBI performance.  Hamilton and Cruz didn’t miss out on the action, each hitting one of their own.

Billy Butler continued his hot hitting with a couple hits and a walk.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gil Meche is hurt; something’s wrong with his delivery and presence. Meche gave up 6 R (4ER) on 4HR and has a 6.66 ERA on the year.

Rich Harden continues to test my patience after allowing 6R (5ER) against the Royals.  Neftali Feliz got the save and looks to be doing his thang.

Rickie Weeks went 3-for-5 with 2R, 2RBI and a HR.  Weeks still strikes out too much and doesn’t walk nearly enough but this may be a sign that his mid-May slump is over.

Recent call-up, Jonathan Lucroy, has a couple hits in his first two games.  Unfortunately, the ballsy catcher saw it fit to try and steal a base — fail.  Lucroy did steal 8 bases in A-ball a couple years ago, but I wouldn’t count on more than 1 at the MLB level.  Lucroy will more than like split the platoon with Kottaras while Zaun’s out.

Both Jhouyls Chacin and Ian Kennedy pitched a’ight games.  If I had to pick one going forward, Chacin’s electric stuff takes it.

Yah, that’s Troy Tulowitzki’s third homer in 3 games and 4th in 5 games.

In THE pitching match-up of the night, Jon Garland tossed 7IP of scoreless baseball for the win but was outpitched by Adam Wainwright who, aside from a solo-knock by Hairston Jr, pitched brilliantly.  Wainwright struck out 12 Padres while only allowing a single walk and four hits — that’s how the cookie crumbles, I guess.

Jose Bautista hit another homer, as did Jeremy Reed and Aaron Hill, but it wasn’t enough.  Aside from the Dingers!, Ervin Santana pitched a masterful game by locating his fastball and getting the Jays to chase that dirty slider.  Santana pitched a complete game 4-hitter with 10Ks — going forward, I wouldn’t be too worried about those HR.

Mike Napoli is on fire: 4HR in his last 5G and 5HR in his last 8G.

Doug Fister got yet another win from a 7 inning, 3R, 2ER, 1K performance.  This guy blows my mind.

Maybe Milton Bradley’s finally rounding into form with a homer and 3RBI last night.

Livan Hernandez is finally regressing!!!!

4ER in 5IP on 7Hits last night.

Homer Bailey went seven strong innings against the Brewers, giving up 4H, 2BB and a couple ER.  Bailey settled down well after giving up both earned runs in the first.  He relied heavily on his fastball (71%) but his change-up looked better than it had in a couple starts.

Jay Bruce stole a base and collected a couple hits off lefty, Manny Parra.  Bruce has slowly been improving his platoon splits but it’s still quite sensible to sit him against top-tier lefties.  Jay Bruce is now hitting .280 on the year after a .223 ’08 campaign.  Bruce may be striking out more in 2010 but his swing-rate and swinging strikes are both down.  More importantly, Bruce has upped his walk-rate by swinging less outside of the zone.  You get the feeling that a break-out month is on the horizon for Jay Bruce.

Casey McGehee continued to absolutely punish the baseball with 3 hits on Tuesday.  After a 2009 season where McGehee owned the fastball, he’s been doing most of his damage this year on off-speed stuff.  McGehee’s BABIP isn’t spectacularly high — it’s actually the same .330 it was last year – but with only 10% of his hits as line-drives, there’s some concern.

The Toronto Blue Jays continued to light up mistake prone pitches against the Twins and Carl Pavano.  Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion all went yard.  Blue Jays not named Aaron Hill or Adam Lind will eventually regress but I’m not going to be the one to predict it.  With Hill’s homer and Adam Lind’s 2-hit game, their batting averages now sit at .175 and .231, respectively.  Adam Lind will have trouble duplicating his 2009 break-out season without cutting his Ks down to 2009 levels:  currently, he’s at 29% versus 19% in 2009.

Shaun Marcum continues to dominate with control after missing all of 2009 but the ERA is a bit lucky.  Expecting something closer to 2008′s 3.40ERA rather than 2010′s current 2.61 ERA seems to make sense.  Marcum’s ability to move the fastball and place the change-up wherever he damn-well pleases is extraordinary.

Rick Porcello’s sinker just isn’t sinking which is a problem when your value’s tied up in ERA and WHIP. At this point, I’m having major issues seeing Porcello’s upside, especially if he continues to walk almost as many batters as he’s striking out. Rick Porcello walked another 3 batters last night in a very mediocre performance (7IP, 4ER, 8H, 3BB, 2K) against the White Sox.

With 2 Hits and a steal, Brennan Boesch is now hitting .387 on the strength of a .426 BABIP.  The rook’s slugging percentage sits at a darling .680 but this can only last so long with a BB-Rate of 3% and a 51% O-Swing.

Andruw Jones went 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts last night; Can you believe Jones has 7 SB on the year?

Thankfully for White Sox fans, Bobby Jenks pitched a pretty clean 9th inning:  1H, 0BB and 2 Ks.  Sergio Santos walked a couple in one inning’s work to raise his WHIP to 1.08.  Hitters are only hitting .165 against Santos and his very live fastball (AVG Speed: 95.6mph).

Florida spanked Arizona eight to nil on Tuesday.  Justin Upton was the only Diamondback position player to record a hit — which he bundled with another 2 SO, lovely.

Cameron Maybin hit in the 2-hole and recorded a homer, a walk and a strike-out.  The kid’s still hitting just .242 (on a .341 BABIP) and striking out 32.6% of the time.

David Price pitched another solid game for his sixth win of the year.  I’d really like to see Price return to the BB numbers of 2008 (2.57) before I fully endorse him as elite, though.  While Price is getting a bit lucky on balls in play, he’s still pitching incredibly well with a 3.06 FIP and a True ERA (tERA) of 2.91.

Ben Zobrist is still without a homer, but i’d hardly call him a major disappointment after his 7th steal of the year.  His .340 BABIP is almost negated by a 5% increase in line-drives over last year.  The major concerns that I have with Zobrist is his huge jump in O-Swing (’09: 19%, 10: 27%) and decline in BB-Rate (’09: 15%, ’10: 10%).

The Royals and Orioles game was a thriller, just ask the reported 9,715 fans that showed up at Camden to take in the baseball super-event.  Kevin Millwood, a man that I’ll never roster, continued his hot streak going 8 strong innings, striking out seven without a walk.  Millwood’s ERA is now 3.65 on the year and he’s striking out more than 7 batters per 9.

Jose Guillen had two more hits and is now batting .261 with 8HR.  Guillen has quietly gone about matching his 2009 power numbers in about half the games.  He’s already accumulated one more double, one fewer homer, seven fewer runs, and 15 fewer RBI in 41 fewer games.

Zack Greinke got yet another no-decision, despite 7IP, 2ER, 6K and 1BB.  That’s one whole win on the entire year, folks.  If there’s anyway that you can acquire Greinke, I’d do it.  He’ll still end up with at least 10-12 wins on the year.

I’m a bit sensitive about Josh Beckett as the former Texas Highschooler was one of my first ever keeper picks.  In 4.2IP, Beckett gave up another 3ER — That’s good for a season ERA on the wrong side of 7.

C.C. Sabathia allowed a single run in seven solid innings but I’m somewhat concerned about the strike-out and walk totals.  C.C. has a habit of starting out poorly but he’s barely striking out six batters per nine and walking almost 3-per-9.  He should eventually round back into form before that .239 BABIP catches up to him.

Roy Halladay’s complete game, two ER, six K, performance was out-dueled by Zack Duke et. al.  Evan Meek pitched another solid inning in relief, striking out one and walking another.  On the season, Meek has a ERA of 0.69 and has managed to strike-out a batter per inning while only walking 2.42-per-9.  Evan Meek’s added a couple of MPH across the board and his average fastball hitting 95mph is starting to look closer-worthy.  All the plate discipline indicators show that hitters are having trouble with his stuff; it’s just a matter of sustaining the BB-Rate, which he’s lopped in half since 2009.

Ike Davis hit a dinger, his first in a couple weeks.  While the strike-outs are worrisome, he’s walking almost 16% of the time.  There will inconsistency but Davis has looked pretty good thus far:  .275 AVG /.393 OBP/ .466 SLG.

Kris Medlen continued to prove his case with 6.1 innings of 4 Hit ball.  Medlen allowed a couple homers while striking out six and walking a couple.

I have absolutely no fucking clue how Carlos Silva continues to pitch this well.

Five walks in just over five innings got Jhoulys Chacin into trouble.  He still managed to strike-out six batters and his season ERA is now at 3.12.  If Chacin can keep his K:BB on the right side of two, he’ll have success going forward.  Expect the normal bumps and bruises, though.

Carlos Zambrano pitched a perfect ninth: two strike-outs and no walks!  The Cubs want him and his gigantic salary back in the rotation, which at least gives Big-Z owners hope.

Tyler Colvin took advantage of the playing time, knocking in a run and scoring a couple on three hits.  I’m not sure how the Cubbies can make this work but this kid needs to see some consistent at-bats.

Carlos Gonzalez had two hits for the Rockies but there is something dirty about his 2.7% BB-Rate hitting lead-off.

Ian Kinsler hit his first dinger of the year to help Texas beat the Angels.  On the season, Vladdy Guerrero now has eight homers after another one last night.  The question is not if Guerrero will come up with a bum hamstring but when.

Neftali Feliz is rounding back into form, pitching a scoreless ninth with two K’s.

At what point do the Angels just give up on Brandon Wood? Another hitless game for Wood.

Felipe Lopez lead off for the Cardinals last night.  You know the deal with Lopez, he’ll score runs and steal bases but it won’t be pretty.  I’ve got a feeling that Lopez might return to his 20 SB days after stealing just 14 over the course of the previous two years.

Six hits over two games was all it took Ian Desmond to raise his batting average from .246 to .279 — Wonky, eh?    This is a guy that flashed 30SB potential throughout the minors but it’s yet to translate.  In 2009, across two levels and a cup of coffee (AA-AAA-MLB,) Desmond stole 22 Bases.

Felix Hernandez got hit pretty hard (11H, 2BB) without it translating into ER (3).  Ben Sheets came back down to earth as he walked 4 more batters en route to 4ER.

Kurt Suzuki had 3 hits to raise his batting average from .239 to .264.  He’s still a viable option at catcher.

The story of the extra-innings game between the Padres and the Giants was Mat Latos.  Neither Latos nor the Padres got the win thanks in part to Mike Adams’ blown save in the eighth.  Mat Latos’ WHIP now sits just below 1.00 in part because he’s given up just 1 walk in his previous three starts.  Definitely someone worth locking your sights on.

Bud Norris exploded yet again against the Dodgers.  With a couple of hits and a homer, Carlos Lee may finally be starting to heat up.

Yanno, if you throw enough shit against the wall some will stick.  For the most part, I forget about fantasy baseball series I try to put together.  I figure this one might stick though, it seems to have a solid premise: analyze who’s gettin’ picked up and who’s gettin’ dropped.

Tonight, we’ll do the Top-10 (ish) most added guys in an ESPN league.

Most Added

1. Ryan Franklin – RP | STL – Why? Saves

   Franklin’s notched 5 SV so far this year after going 17/25 in SV opportunities last year.  Jason Motte and Chris Perez both have harder stuff, but as long as Franklin continues to produce, LaRussa will ride ‘em.  Franklin has struck out a batter per inning and it appears to be directly correlated to him sacrificing movement for speed on his slider, which has essentially become a cut-fastball.   Gone are the days of Franklin’s 85mph slider; Franklin’s relying on a 90mph cutter now! He’s been close to the zone with it, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see increased effectiveness.

   Prediction: I’m stumped on this one.  Just about every expert is going to say that Franklin will come in at about 12-15 Saves in a couple different stints as closer, but Franklin’s new-found reliance on the cutter is intriguing.  Could I see Franklin notching 30 Saves? Yah, Sorta.  It’s not sexy, but Franklin looks really good right now.

2. Jarrod Washburn – SP | SEA – Why? Hot-Streak

   Way back in December Peter Bendix made a point, a very good point, about Jarrod Washburn here. The point was, Washburn’s predictable as hell and Seattle’s defense improved enough to make a difference.  With that said, it makes sense to predict Washburn as a guy that can eat up innings, and provide you with around 100-120K’s and an ERA in the low fours.  With that said, Washburn’s been dominant, posting a 1.71 ERA, 7.29 K/9, and  1.71 BB/9.  Washburn’s never posted a K:BB rate of above 2.36, let alone anything near his current 4.25 K/BB.

   Even though Washburn’s clearly getting a bit lucky posting a higher than normal strand-rate, lower than normal BABIP, and a HR/FB rate that’s bound to rise; None of these explain why Washburn’s notching the K’s. Other than a marginal increase in velocity, there’s nothing that stands out as an indicator of increased long-term performance.

   Prediction: Maybe Washburn can get his line up to 6K per 9, but I don’t see him maintaining his current pace.  With that said, of all the players on the list — I’m least confident in Washburn.

3. Yadier Molina – C | STL – Why? Hot-Streak

   If you don’t have one of the big-boys, there’s no harm in picking up whichever catcher’s on a roll. Molina hit another Home Run tonight, and while Molina isn’t going to maintain a .900 OPS, he should be useful.  There’s really no bad spot to hit in that stacked St. Louis line-up.

   Prediction: If LaRussa continues batting Molina in the heart of that line-up rather than the 8-spot, he’s definitely amongst the top-12 catchers, especially with Doumit’s recent injury.  Frustrated Doumit owners could do a lot worse than picking up the hot-hitting Yadier Molina.  Expecting a .285-.295 AVG with some pop here and there is a safe bet.  I don’t see him hitting over .300 again this year, but he’ll come close enough to keep owners happy.

4. Aaron Hill – 2B | TOR – Why? Healthy

   I covered Aaron Hill yesterday, right here.

   Prediction: Probably one of the better values you’re going to find on the waiver-wire this year, but don’t expect him to keep producing at quite this pace.

5. Mike Lowell – 3B | BOS – Why? Healthy

   Well, Mike’s probably as close to 100% as he’s going to get and anyone in that Red Sox line-up is worth considering.   Lowell’s torrid RBI pace is bound to slow down at some point when the Fly-Balls stop translating directly into HR (16.4% HR/FB.)

   Prediction: Lowell’s a must-add in almost all formats, especially in leagues with an active waiver-wire or a fair amount of DL spots.  At some point, he’ll eventually get knicked up so you’ll probably want to have a replacement handy.  In leagues with squat on the WW, the possibility of matching 2007′s epic 120 RBI season may just outweigh the injury risk.

6. Chris Duncan – OF | STL – Why? Opportunity

   The Cards are apparently the talk of the fantasy baseball world this week after putting together a nice little win-streak.  Duncan has all sorts of natural power, but he’s competing with Colby Rasmus, Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel for playing time.  Over the course of his career, Duncan’s had a lot of trouble with lefties (.213/.270/.367) compared to righties (.282/.376/.521.)  Thus far in 2009, Duncan’s actually hitting lefties for a better average, but that’s probably more to do with luck than skill.  However, hitting .320 with an .866 OPS against lefties  cannot be completely over-looked, even if it is just 25 ABs.  Duncan’s also cut down on his swings on balls outside of the zone, which is nice to see.

   Prediction: Duncan’s shown quite a bit of improvement but he’ll still be benched here and there, especially if he starts slumping against lefties again.  However, if you’re in a deep league where pitchers do not occupy the entirety of your bench, I’d own Duncan.  One of my favourite strategies in fantasy baseball is taking sluggers with huge platoon splits, and combining them.  While sometimes it’ll work out such that both of your sluggers are facing same-handed guys, for the most part you’ll always have at least one of them facing an opposite handed pitcher.  It used to be a pain in the arse to implement this strategy, but Yahoo and ESPN have made it much easier with the match-up button.

7. Asdrubal Cabrera – MI | CLE – Why? Break-Out Candidate

   I’ve been high on Cabrera as a bargain-basement middle infielder for a while.  I still see him more as a late in the line-up kinda guy, unless shit hits the fan.  Cabrera did bat 2nd tonight, but for the most part that spot will be occupied by DeRosa.  However, batting 9th in Cleveland isn’t that bad of a gig.  Cabrera stole 23 bases in 2007, so the 3 SB aren’t that surprising.

   Prediction: Sure, I can see Cabrera stealing 15 or 16 bases with a solid .275 average but that’s probably his ceiling.   You could do a lot worse than Cabrera, and while his K percentage is concerning (22%,) he’s negating the majority of it with an amazing 17% BB-Rate.  Even if he regresses to a .350 OBP, he’ll contribute across the board on the cheap.

8. Wandy Rodriguez – SP | HOU – Why? Break-Out Candidate

   Wandy’s got all sorts of potential and the only thing holding him back has been his unbelievable Home-vs-Road Splits.  Go ahead and take a look, it’s brutal. I’ve yet to figure out why someone would have such a noticeable, consistent Home vs. Away Split.  Maybe Wandy loves to party, maybe he just needs the comforts of home,  either way, he’s a must own.

   Prediction: You’ve got to pick up Wandy at least for the time being.  Unlike  most speculative picks, Wandy cannot hurt you so long as you bench him for road-starts for the first couple of weeks. The best case scenario is that he fixes whatever’s broken. The worst case scenario is that you only get 90-100 IP of a strike-out per inning, low-ERA, tiny-WHIP, baseball.  That’s almost what you got from Chamberlain in relief last year!

9. Scott Downs – RP | TOR – Why? Saves

   B.J. Ryan’s on the DL, and even when he comes back, I doubt he’ll be effective.  As it stands now, Downs is the best option coming out of the Toronto pen.  You should definitely keep an eye out for Jason Frasor and his brand-spankin’ new change-up.  Downs and Frasor are polar-opposites and Downs’ ground-ball tendencies (3.50 GB/FB) may be better served in the 8th inning or higher leverage situations. Downs’ closed it out tonite for the Blue Jays, recording his second save of the season.  With 14 strike-outs in not-quite 11 IP, Downs is one of the better late relievers in the game.

   Prediction: Downs will get his fair share of saves, but the Blue Jays should slow down at some point.  Between Downs, Frasor, and Ryan — no one should get more than 15 Saves.

10. Kosuke Fukudome – OF | CHC – Why? Break-Out Candidate

    A lot was expected from Fukudome in his rookie season but he faded badly down the stretch. Fukudome hit another HR and knocked in 5 RBI tonite — so he’ll probably shoot up this list tomorrow morning.  Even if Kosuke wasn’t hitting quite this well, batting in the two-hole of that Cubs line-up definitely makes him rosterable.  Kosuke slumped badly last year, and it could have been a number of things from Culture Shock to Home-Sickness, to a bad case of the crabs — We’ll never know. What we do know is that Kosuke looks right.

    Prediction: Unless your league forces you to hold onto a player for the entire year, go ahead and pick up Fukudome.  I can think of a fair number of outfielders that I’d ‘drop to pick up this Cubbie.  While the power potential isn’t there, he could realistically hit in the high-teens and it woudln’t surprise me to see him double last year’s power-output.

11. Jason Kubel – OF | MIN – Why? Break-Out? Potential? Streak? Healthy?

    If Kubel lives up to his endless potential this year and finally goes a year without hurting himself — I’ll be pretty cheesed.  Fucking Jason Kubel, what a headache.  I won’t even do you the service of explaining why you’re rosterable.  Instead, I’ll recommend you as a must-own while you’re healthy, which’ll probably be another 2 weeks.

I’m going to need to work on this format, but it’s tough to find a base-line player to compare these guys too.  If I start saying you should drop Justin Upton for Kosuke Fukudome, then I’ll have to spend another three paragraphs explaining why I’m low on Justin Upton.

I’m hoping to find a different source for added dropped, as ESPN standard leagues only contain ten teams.  For the majority of people that aren’t in an ESPN league, almost all of the guys I listed are probably already owned.

If you have any recommendations, or comments — or tips! Shoot me an email, or comment away.

Brian Burress and his brand-spankin’ new 12.76 ERA and 2.54 WHIP will not be included in this article.  The main benefactor, Alexei Ramirez and his 5RBI, will also be left out of this discussion.

In case you haven’t figured out by now, the Jays are my home squad and while they’re not my favourite club — I manage to watch at least a few innings of each game.

As always, the small-sample size warning is in effect, but here are your Toronto Blue Jays with some quick analysis and statistics that stand out, at least to me.

1. Marco Scutaro – SS – 69 AB -  .275 AVG – 4 HR – 18 R – 11 RBI – 1 SB

   • 1.45 BB:K Ratio – Scutaro’s posted a career best, and is getting on base at a ridiculous clip
   • .414 OBP - could you ask for anything more in an under-priced lead-off hitter?
   • Scutaro’s also barely swinging and when he does swing, he’s making ridiculously high contact
   • Conclusion - Scutaro’s still terribly undervalued, but there’s no way he keeps up his torrid pace.  Expect his .920 OPS to come down to the .790 OPS range.

2. Aaron Hill – 2B -  83 AB - .373 AVG – 5 HR – 13 R – 18 RBI – 1 SB

   • Healthy, Finally Healthy. This is the most important point with Hill.
   • 1.024 OPS and .253 ISO – This will fall in line as other statistics regress…
   • .388 BABIP - …and this’ll be the reason.  Hill should be sitting around .310ish.
   • 17.9 HR/FB – This’ll also help.  Hill hasn’t topped 9% HR/FB in his career, and even an optimistic projection will put him somewhere around 11 or 12 %
   • Conclusion – Aaron’s going to be an above average second basemen this year, with the possibility of competing with someone like Dan Uggla.  He won’t match Uggla’s power numbers, but he wont kill your Batting Average. The Run and RBI totals also look good for Hill this year.

3. Alex Rios – RF – 77 AB -  .247 AVG – 1 HR – 10 R – 12 RBI – 2 SB

   • .295 BABIP - Rios generally sports a higher than normal BABIP, and it should eventually come up to the .320-range. Last year Rios posted a .335 BABIP.
   • 4.8 HR / FB - The Polar Opposite of Aaron Hill.  They both should end up somewhere around the league average of 11 or 12 percent.
   • 23.4 In Field Fly Ball Percent – Rios shouldn’t be anywhere near this high, and this isn’t one of the lucky/unlucky indicators.  Rios was just off to start the year, and he’s starting to turn it around.
   • Conclusion - Still a tremendous talent, but his draft value assumed he’d develop some power to go with his stolen base potential.  I’d expect an improvement in Rios’ counting stats, which should make up for a slight decline in SB numbers.  Once the Jays  stop hitting, Rios may start running a lot more. A 20-20 season is a very real possibility, but 30-30 is asking a bit too much. I’m buying Rios at 90-95 cents on the dollar.

4. Vernon Wells – CF – 75 AB – .280 AVG – 3 HR – 15 R – 9 RBI – 3 SB

   • .300 AVG – Wells hasn’t reached these numbers for a couple years
   • .269 BABIP – …and he’s not just getting ass-faced lucky either
   • 42.3% FB and .97 GB/FB Ratio - Wells was nowhere near these numbers last year and this is a return to the Vernon Wells Hey-Day.
   • Conclusion – Everything looks great for Vernon, and I’m definitely buying it.  His predictor stats are starting to fall in line with the ones he posted during his career years.  The only concern with Vernon is his injury history.

5. Adam Lind – DH – 72 AB – .347 AVG – 3 HR – 13 R – 15 RBI – 0 SB

   • .423 BABIP – Al Pacino says, “H00 – Haah!”   Adam Lind is primed for some regression
   • 24% LD Rate — Lind doesn’t possess your typical uppercut swing, and is more of a doubles machine.  He’s increased his line-drive rate 3 percent all of which has come from his GB rate.
   • 18.8 HR / FB - Lind should eventually regress to league average, or somewhere around 12%
   • 10% BB Rate – This is a huge improvement for Lind, and his plate discipline in generally is up.
   • 51 % First Pitch Strike Percentage - This is down 13 percent from previous years.
   • Conclusion – There’s some good, some bad, and some ugly with Adam Lind.  You’ve got to expect regression, but Lind’s plate approach is stellar.  Lind’s not a top-50 guy over the course of the season, but he could easily crack the top-80 or top-100.  Lind could easily pop his head into Ryan Ludwick land, even after all of the regressions.  Just be sure to keep an eye on his plate approach — if he starts pressing, it’ll show up there first.

6. Scott Rolen – 3B – 63 AB- .317 AVG – 2 HR – 10 R – 7 RBI – 0 SB

   • .317 BA - After two years of hitting in the .260- range, Rolen’s found himself a time-machine.  The big thing with Rolen is definitely his health, and I really can’t see him staying healthy all year.
   • 9.5 K Rate – This blows my mind, and really confirms the fact that Rolen is probably as healthy as he’s going to get. Rolen gradually reduced his K rate during his time with the Cardinals, and this is the logical in the progression of an aging power hitter. I’d prefer to see an older slugger understand the aging process, rather than swinging for the fences even after his power’s been robbed.
   • Conclusion - In Deep Leagues, ride Rolen while he’s hot.  He’ll end up injured soon enough, as the Rogers Centre surface is anything but friendly to veterans. I wouldn’t be expecting a return to greatness, as Rolen’s still not making terrific contact, but he’ll be serviceable.

7. Lyle Overbay – 1B – 42 AB - .310 AVG – 3 HR – 7 R – 10 RBI – 0 SB

   • 42 AB – At this point, Overbay is splitting time with Kevin Millar.  Cito maintains that it’s not a platoon, but it’s really starting to look that way.
   • 2.17 BB:K Rate – Overbay is taking a lot of walks  (23.6% BB Rate) and it’ll pay off assuming that he’s got hitters batting behind him. Overbay’s plate discipline has improved across the board.  If Overbay ever finds his way to the top of the line-up, he could prove to be quite useful in deeper leagues.
   • 52.8% GB Rate – Unfortunately, as we all know, Overbay doesn’t bring the kind of power you’d hope for in a Corner Infielder.  While this sample-size is tiny, Overbay’s hitting far too many ground-balls (19 in total, thus far.)
   • Conclusion – In deeper leagues monitor Overbay’s spot in the line-up as he could provide half-decent production.

8. Travis Snider - LF – 42 AB – .310 AVG – 3 HR – 8 R – 10 RBI – 1 SB

   • 42AB - Same deal as Overbay, except Snider’s splitting time with Jose Bautista in left-field.  Cito’s going to have to hit Snider against lefties sooner or later, or the youngster will lose his confidence.  Wearing kids gloves while handling youngsters is always a wise idea though.
   • .357 BABIP – It’s not like we should expect regression; Snider’s posted high BABIP at every level.  I just wanted to make a note of that in case some foo’ told you he was getting lucky. This number’s actually perfectly in line with Bill James’ projection model for Travis Snider.
   • 5 BB - Snider’s already matched his walk total from 2008, in 5/8ths of the plate appearances.  Snider’s 10% BB rate is nice, but Snider still appears to be pressing from time to time.
   • Conclusion - Snider has some interesting numbers, but I’m going to write most of them off as random fluctuations.  I wouldn’t expect Snider to continue hitting 52% Fly-Balls compared to merely 10% line-drives.

9. Rod Barajas - C – 52 AB – .250 AVG – 2 HR – 5 R – 9 RBI – 0 SB

   • 0.30 GB/FB – Barajas is one of the few Jays that has yet to click.  Barajas is getting under the ball a lot, but I wouldn’t worry:  he’ll eventually finish close enough to his career average of .60 GB/FB.
   • 67.9 Fastball Percent - It really looks like pitchers are challenging Barajas this year, and he hasn’t quite caught up to the fastball.  He’ll adapt with time, so long as the Jays don’t trot him out there *too* often.
   • Conclusion - Barajas has been bating pretty late in the order, but the order has exceeded everyone’s expectations.  In two catcher leagues, Barajas is a viable option but otherwise I’d probably avoid him in most other leagues.  Unless of course you can stomach his .250 batting average.

…and that is that, maybe I’ll get around to doing the Jays Pitchers tomorrow but with so many of them currently injured, I’m not sure it’ll be worth it.

As always, thanks to fangraphs.com for their lovely website.

Second basemen don’t grow on trees, and they’re pretty tough to predict coming out of the minors.  You’ll find most second basemen are converted shortstops that lack athleticism or a gun for an arm.  Learning the pivot, or learning how to read the ball from the other side of the diamond aren’t easy, but they’re a lot easier than adding range or a better arm…..now that steroids are gone, anyways.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Ian Kinsler – TEX Rangers – 26 – Edges out Pedroia’s career year of 2008.  Kinsler has to avoid injury, but other than that he’s a great power-speed combo. I’d like to see Kinsler show *it* for another year before giving him this spot, but I’m just not that high on Pedroia’s skill-set.

2. Dustin Pedroia – BOS Red Sox – 25 – Not the most talented guy, but he’s got a solid average and is in a great line-up.

3. Chase Utley – PHI Phillies – 30 - Utley starts the year out on the DL, and he’s starting to get old for a MI.  You should expect 3 or 4 more years of great power numbers.

4. Brandon Phillips – CIN Reds – 27 – Great Power / Speed combo, and so long as the Reds are mediocre, he’ll continue to swipe bags well into his early-to-mid thirties.  Great ballpark, and a maturing Bruce / Votto combo should start driving him in.

5. Alexei Ramirez – CHI White Sox – 27 - I couldn’t be more on the fence about Ramirez.  He ranks lower as a shortstop than a second basemen.  I tend to think that the Ramirez SS experience doesn’t last more than a year or so.  Ramirez reminds everyone of Alfonso Soriano, as he’ll swing at damn near anything.  If pitchers figure him out, he’ll be in trouble.

6. Dan Uggla – FLA Marlins – 29 - A Whole lotta power that’ll stick around for at least another 4 or 5 years. I dont know how many 100 R / 100 RBI seasons he’s got left in him though.

7. Howie Kendrick – LA Angels – 25 - Should eventually become a hitting machine. He’s a unique talent that just can’t stay healthy.  The Angels are a solid franchise, and although they’re aging — they’ll reload, allowing Kendrick to score boat-loads of runs.

8. Robbie Cano – NY Yankees – 26 - Cano should return to his .300+ ways, in which case he’ll be moved up a spot or two.  Wherever he hits, he’ll score ‘em and knock ‘em in. I’d like to see a couple months of the old Cano before I get too excited.

9. Kelly Johnson – ATL Braves – 27 - Should continue to develop as he matures.  Solid Braves line-up, and some power potential in there.

10. Jose Lopez – SEA Mariners – 25 – Young and talented, but I’m worried about him repeating his stellar 2008 season though.  Who knows how awful that Mariners line-up will be in 2009, let alone when Ichiro departs.

11. Brian Roberts – BAL Orioles – 31 - I’m not sure how much speed Roberts has left in those legs.  He’ll probably have a couple 30+ SB seasons left in ‘em, and the O’s line-up is improved enough to knock him in.  When he falls off though, he’s going to fall off hard and fast.  Roberts is one of the nicer guys in the big leagues, which is strange considering he was all up in that Mitchell Report.

12. Rickie Weeks – MIL Brewers – 26 - He’s got a year, maybe two, to put it all together.  Even if he doesn’t put it together, he’ll contribute steals and runs without hurting you *too* much.

13. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 - Injuries starting to catch up to him, and who knows how long he’ll keep his second base eligibility. It’ll be nice to see what Figgins can do with a return to full health.  He’s been used sparingly, so he’s probably got a few more years left in those legs.

14. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Power potential + Plays in Coors.  That’s pretty much all you need to know.  He may fit better at 3rd, or in the outfield.  Lots of potential here though.

15. Matt Antonelli – SD Padres – 23 – First of the big-name prospects, Antonelli has had a rollercoaster ride in the Minors.  He still projects to be damn good though. Unfortunately, he plays in San Diego.

16. Alexi Casilla – MIN Twins – 24 – I like Alexi more than most, and he’ll bring a solid BA and SB numbers to the table.

17. Aaron Hill – TOR Blue Jays – 27 - If Aaron Hill picks up where he left off, he’ll mature into a second basemen with low-20′s HR power.  Post Concussion really sidetracked him, and who knows if he’ll ever be the same.

18. Mike Aviles – KC Royals – 28 – KC will be improved, but you’re drafting Aviles average which isn’t the safest bet.  Remember how Sanchez followed up his .330 BA season?  Always be hesitant drafting late bloomers.

19. Felipe Lopez – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Yah Yah Yah – I’m big on Lopez, You get it.

20. Eric Young Jr. – COL Rockies – 23 - Young’s stock has been more volatile than the DOW.  With an amazing Arizona Fall League, and Spring Training — Young’s back.  With Colorado’s outfield crowded with top-tier prospects, he may stick at 2nd.  He’s back in the minors for the time being though. When he gets the call, he’ll at least contribute to SB to start.

21. Absdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians – 23 - He may take a while to mature, and you’re going to need patience.  He could show flashes as soon as this year. He’s a solid sleeper this year, and a great buy-low keeper option.

22. Chris Getz – CHI White Sox – 25 – If he was guarenteed the job, he’d be higher.  Dustin Pedroia brought scrappy, unathletic, slow, short, white-dude back in style and Getz should cash in.  All Getz has to do is fight off Nix and Lillibridge.

23. Aki Iwamura – TB Rays – 30 - He’ll score 100 runs for the next couple years.

24. Alberto Callaspo – KC Royals – 25 - I thought the D-Backs would hold onto Callaspo; alas he’s part of the KC mess at 2b.  He might project as a better UTIL player than an everyday player but there’s upside in there, somewhere.

25. Mark DeRosa – CLE Indians – 34 - A solid bet for a year or two of solid production.  Not 2008-type production, but production.

26. Anderson Hernandez – WAS Nationals – 26 – I’m not sure how this mess turns out, but it’ll have minimum value for the next couple years unless Hernandez rises to the top of the newly potent Nats line-up.

27. Eric Patterson – OAK Athletics – 25 - Probably projects as an outfielder, but the A’s were wise to nab him from the Cubs. Patterson was recently optioned, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the call as soon as this year.

28. Orlando Hudson – LA Dodgers – 31 – He’s in a solid line-up, and he’ll contribute for maybe a year and a half.  Realistically, Hudson could go anywhere from 23rd to 30th.

29. Kaz Matsui – HOU Astros – 33 - No more anal fissures.  He’ll hit for a decent average, score runs and steal bases.  Nice filler while you wait on the next big thing.

30. Emmanuel Burriss – SF Giants – 24 - Lots of Speed, but’ll probably have to battle tooth and nail for the 2B job.  We’ll see soon enough… Bruce Bochy announces the winner tomorrow, I believe.

31. Placido Polanco – DET Tigers – 33 - Detroit’s got a solid line-up, and I think Polanco has another year and a bit left in it.  He’ll hit for a good average and score runs. Second Base gets old in a hurry.

32. Freddy Sanchez – PIT Pirates – 31 - Paying for batting average is the last thing I’d do.  If the LaRoche brothers somehow transform into the steroid era bash brothers, then maybe Sanchez will have long-term value.

33. Mike Fontenot – CHI Cubs – 28 - Fontenot or Miles, they’ll probably split the job until a Free Agent comes in.  Both of their values are thrown in the trash because of the time-share.

34. Blake DeWitt – LA Dodgers – 23 - I’m assuming he’ll eventually come in at third-base, rather than second. Should be an above average UTIL guy, with a season of two worth of starter’s production.

35. Jerry Hairston Jr. – CIN Reds – 32 - Cheapo steals and average this year.

36. Luis Valbuena – CLE Indians – 24 - Keep an eye out.

37. Clint Barmes – COL Rockies – 30 - Boring.

38. Mark Ellis – OAK Athletics – 31 - Ditto.

39. Willy Aybar – TAM Rays – 26 – There’s actually some value in Aybar’s versatility, but he’s not a keeper.

40. Kevin Frandsen – SF Giants – 26 - I don’t think he keeps the job for more than a year, or a month, or a month, or a week.

41. Travis Denker – SD Padres – 23 - Antonelli has it, but keep an eye out.

Skip Schumaker – STL Cardinals – 29 - Skip’s been working out at second base all spring and if he lands the job, which he should, he’ll be able to contribute.  I wouldn’t feel bad about putting him in the Mid-to-High Teens.

Mark Teahan – KC Royals – 27 - There’s no way he sticks at 2B.  He’s athletic as hell, and has a good arm — but he’ll need some serious seasoning to pick the position up.  If he does, he has above average power and is in an improving Royals line-up.  Low-20s.

This is a good one, and I’m glad someone asked it.  Both of these players should contribute to plenty of fantasy teams in deep leagues, and have the potential to possibly even contribute to teams in shallow leagues — if everything goes well.

What we’re dealing with here is two late blooming second basemen, who both have a shot at contributing for 5 or so more years.  Hill’s coming in at 27 this year, and Getz will be 26 by the end of the year.

Aaron Hill’s been Toronto’s second basemen since essentially 2005, but has had his career thrown off course by post-concussion syndrome. As an added bonus, Aaron Hill enters the batters box to Ozzy Osbourne’s Iron Man which strangely enough provides an epic backdrop for my howls of  “I AM AARON HILL, lalalalala, AARON HILL”.

Chris Getz on the other hand is in a battle with former Braves prospect, Brett Lillibridge and equally as uninspiring Jayson Nix.  Jayson Nix appeared to have the edge on Getz until an injury side-lined him until late-April, early-May. Now it appears as though Getz has the second base job, with Cuban phenom, Alexei Ramirez switching from second base to shortstop.

Both Hill and Getz have a distinct risk of missing large chunks of playing time; Hill has his head, and Getz has competition for the job.

Batting Average and On-Base Percentage

Aaron Hill is easier to predict, as he’s had a good amount of Major League at-bats. Hill had posted consecutive .291 seasons in 2006 & 2007 before his disastrous 2008 season of hitting .263.

If Hill has returned to full health, we’re looking at a .285 hitter that’ll probably start off slow as he re-adjusts after missing nearly 100 games last year.

Other than Getz’s 2006 season in AA, he’s proven he’s a .300 hitter in the minors. He’s a scrappy little hitter that’ll probably come close to hitting .275-.280 in the show.

Both Hill and Getz walk at a rate of between 7 and 10 percent, and strike-out an acceptable 14-15% of the time.  What little room Getz gives up in batting average, he makes up for in walk-rate.  Hill and Getz should post similar .335-.345 OBP in 2009.

Home Runs and Slugging Percentage

While Aaron Hill displayed average power from the second base spot in 2007 posting 17-HR, he’s much more likely to display low-teens home-run power in 2009.  The same holds true for Getz, who’s career high was 11-HR in 404 AAA at-bats last year.

Hill gets the edge based solely on potential, as it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Hill top 15 home runs again, in 2009.

Counting Stats, Runs and RBI

I’m predicting Doom and Gloom for the Toronto Blue Jays this year, but Hill should at least put up half-decent Run totals with Wells, Rios, and Lind following him in the line-up.  A healthy Scott Rolen would mean a lot to this line-up, but when was the last time Scott Rolen was healthy?

The back-end of the Jays line-up will be hit and miss throughout the year, which’ll be reflected in Hill’s RBI totals.  The Blue Jays line-up is solid, but not spectacular in a division that is filled with about 10 different aces, not counting Roy Halladay. I tend to think that facing Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Beckett, Dice-K, Kazmir, Shields with the possibilities of Price, Smoltz, Bucholz and a healthy Andy Petitte is going to negatively effect all of the Blue Jays’ and Orioles’ stat-lines this year.

A fair expectation for Hill, assuming he sticks at the front-end of the Jays line-up is about 75-80 Runs, with 65-70RBI.

Christopher Getz on the other hand, could realistically bat anywhere in that aging, but nevertheless loaded, White Sox line-up. If Getz can bat early, he’ll be followed by Quentin, Dye, Thome, Konerko. With both Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher gone, the lead-off and number two spots in the line-up are up for grabs.

Brian Anderson is realistically the only other guy that could hit lead-off for this club, and he’s projected to get on base at a .300-clip.  Alexei Ramirez’s free swinging ways will have him hitting .290 but barely getting on-base greater than a .325 clip. It really looks like Chris Getz will bat in the 1 or 2 spot, if he can hold off Lillibridge and more importantly Nix.

If Getz does bat early in this line-up, expect big numbers. The possibility of 85 Runs scored in 140 Games is a very real one. If Getz can get on base, the crew behind him should be able to knock him home.  The RBI totals should be equally as solid with the back-end up the White Sox’s line-up consisting of Josh Fields, A.J. Pierzynski, or Brian Anderson.  I’d set my sites on 65 RBI, assuming Getz manages to hold onto the job all year.

Getz has a solid shot of matching Orlando Cabrera’s numbers from last year, as he hits for about the same average, gets on-base at about the same clip, and slugs at around the same percentage. Getz doesn’t possess Cabrera’s speed, but I doubt it’ll effect his scoring ability.

Getz also isn’t a whiney little bastard child, who tries to pan errors off on other players.

Cabrera’s numbers were 93R and 57 RBI, while he only got on-base at a .334 clip which Getz could easily eclipse.

America’s Midwest: Speed Capital of the Universe.

Getz has a clear-cut advantage in this category, as he’s predicted to steal 10 to 15 bases assuming he can get to the 400AB mark.  Aaron Hill while not slow,  will top out at about 10-12 stolen bases with a more aggressive Cito Gaston at the helm. A much more realistic projection is about 6 to 7 SB.

What little advantage Hill has in home-runs, he gives back in the speed department.  Realistically Getz and Hill with both put up mid-20′s combined HR and SB.

If Getz can keep hold of the job the entire year, 20+ SB isn’t out of the question.  Guillen’s allowing him run this spring, leading to Getz stealing 4 and only getting caught once.

Conclusion

This one’s a mess.  The second base position on the White Sox will outpace Aaron Hill by a good amount in 3 of the 5 categories, with the other two categories probably being a wash.

The problem posed however, is that the battle for the White Sox starting second base job is still quite uncertain.  It looks like Getz will at least start the year off as the full-time starter, but when Nix gets healthy the competition will resume.  Alexei Ramirez isn’t exactly stellar at shortstop, and Chicago’s offense is already loaded, which leads me to believe Ozzie Guillen may opt for a defensive second basemen. If Ramirez struggles in the field, there’s even the potential for Lillibridge to man short with Ramirez switching back to second.

Aaron Hill on the other hand, has displayed the potential to be rosterable in a 12-team mixed league, with 20-HR pop and a .290 average. However, the Blue Jays line-up just isn’t as enticing as the Sox.

Getz and Hill actually form a moderately successful platoon in deeper leagues, where drafting both is a solid strategy.  If Getz takes off as the starter for Chicago, feel free to drop Hill. Otherwise, Hill leaves you with a solid, predictable, second baseman to fill the hole.  Hill’s concussion problems have plagued him, but he’s went through spring training without any major headaches, or nausea.

Getz has posted a very solid .308/.379/.423 spring training with 1 HR and 4SB in 52 AB.  Hill on the other hand, whose Spring Training stats mean far less, has posted a .268/.362/.439 with 0 HR and 1SB in 41AB.

When comparing these two, you’ve got to ask yourself whether or not Getz can get to 120-140 games as the starter.  Even if Getz can hold down the job for 120 games; His numbers plus the numbers of the waiver-wire bait you pick up to fill the other 40 games will probably eclipse Hill.

If you’re thinking about Hill vs. Getz, you’re obviously in a fairly deep league; So it may make sense to hedge your bets and take the safer Aaron Hill.  If you have a propensity for risk though, or you’ve minimized your risk elsewhere — Getz is the pick.

In shallow leagues, where you’re looking for a high-risk / high-reward pick, Getz is also the pick.

By the way, what is the possessive of Sox...Sox? or Sox's?

Photo Courtesy of mlb.com

ESPN seems to have some glaring holes in the second basemen rankings, so here’s your cup of tea for the day.

Here’s the problem: ESPN released new rankings, and has people floating around all over the field but failed to mention the two guys that seem like a lock at second base.

Skip Schumaker – St. Louis Cardinals: Skip is a dirty dirty man, and has faired very well at second base.  While he only hit 8 HR, he went for 87R and 8 SB while batting above .300.  Right now, he looks like a glamorized Aki Iwamura, but just wait — he’ll be a top-10 2nd basemen.

Mark Teahan – Kansas City Royals: Teahan looked half-decent at the WBC playing third, and he’s got a great arm.  However, playing second base for the Royals has been a chore.  He keeps committing errors, and Collaspo is a fine replacement.  In a perfect fantasy world, Teahan would get enough bats at 2nd Base to gain eligibility and then return to the outfield.  His bat makes him roster-able as a second basemen, but not particularly an outfielder.

Matt Antonelli – San Diego Padres: Antonelli slept through the majority of the 2008 season, waking up occasionally to strike out.  However, this is still the uber-prospect who made 2007 his bitch.  Maybe he makes the big club out of camp, but he’ll probably spend some time down in the minors now that the Padres got the super-talented David Eckstein.  I’d still rather have Antonelli over the Joe Inglett’s of the world.

The Phillies Situation – Marcus Giles, WHAT? and Eric Bruntlett: Bruntlett is penciled in at every conceivable spot on the Phillies depth chart.  If Utley misses serious time, one of these two gents could actually have some value.  Marcus Giles? Yah, he’s in camp.  He used to be very good too, so if you’re in a deep deep league — take a flyer, maybe.

German Duran – Texas Rangers: There’s some upside here, but he only gets a shot if Kinsler hurts himself, which is guarenteed.  25 Games, it is.  If Kinsler ever goes down permenantly, Duran should be nabbed up in deeper leagues.

Eric Young Jr. – Colorado Rockies: He killed Arizona fall league pitching, and has been taking some practice at second base — maybe worth a shot.  If he gets a job in the outfield or at second, he’ll steal some.

Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox: As of today, Tuesday March 17th, Gordon Beckham is listed atop the White Sox depth chart at second base.  AWESOME.  Beckham was drafted last year, 8th overall and is just a wee lil child.  Anyways, if he starts he’s good enough, as raw as he is, to ball out.  It’ll be a roller-coaster ride though.  White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen seems to think that Beckham shouldn’t be used as a UTIL man under any circumstances — which is stellar for Beckham’s development and his keeper league prospects.

Angel Berroa – New York Yankees: Here’s the deal, Cano had an MRI yesterday and it revealed bursitis of the shoulder.  This is not good, and there’s a good chance it’ll flare up again throughout the season.  Those little bursae sacs are bastards, and if Cano can’t go or Jeter gets hurt, Berroa steps in.  In that Yankee line-up, anyone can be successful.