Aaron Hill

Sacks Juiced: May 26

Dallas Braden left the Oakland loss in the fourth inning with a sore ankle.  Braden had issued an unearned run and three hits in four innings before allowing a couple walks and being pulled.  Braden believes that he’ll make his next scheduled start.

Braden’s counterpart, Jeremy Guthrie, pitched six innings allowing one earned run for the quality start.  Guthrie walked three batters while only striking out a couple. As I’ve said before, Guthrie’s a rate-stat only fantasy pitcher with a penchant for keeping his BABIP low by inducing groundballs and catchable flies.  Guthrie’s FIP, xFIP and tERA will always trend above his actual ERA but hoping for a continuation of 3.64 ERA is a pipe dream.  Jeremy Guthrie is the king of average, and you should probably expect that going forward.

Jake Peavy got lit up by the Sizemore-less Cleveland Indians.  Peavy allowed 6ER on 8H but only walked a single batter while striking out 5.  Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald went deep off of Peavy.  Peavy hasn’t looked like this since his second year in the league (2007) where he went 12-11 with an ERA of 4.11 and a FIP of almost five.  The strike-outs are still there (8.02K/9) but the walks have ballooned past 3 and a half.

Mitch Talbot lowered his ERA to 3.73 and WHIP to 1.28 with a 7 inning, 2 earned run ball game against the Sox.  At this point, shutting down the Sox is nothing to celebrate.  After starting the season with an ERA in the twos, Talbot’s had 3 bad games in his last five (Jays, Detroit, and KC).

Travis Hafner’s average is up to .281 after a couple of hits but it’s an empty average.  Hafner’s power is nowhere near his career mark and his ISO is under .150.  There’s some good news on the horizon though, just not 30HR news.  Over the last 8-games, Hafner’s managed extra bases (4Doubles, 1HR) in five.  Hafner’s working on a 12-Game hitting streak, too!  For someone that started May with a .197 AVG and .324 SLG, closing it out with a .281 AVG and .430 SLG is pretty impressive.

Jason Heyward went 2-for-4 with a couple RBIs and now has a .296/.415/.578 line which makes for one hell of a .992 OPS.

Cameron Maybin had 2 hits and a DINGER! but this is me ignoring those numbers.

Maybe Anibal Sanchez gets his own article after 6.1IP of 5H, 2ER, 6K baseball.

Life sure is good for Martin Prado who now has 32 Runs on the year after a 3hit, 1R night.  Batting ahead of Heyward et. al means 52% of your pitches will be in the zone and almost 65% will be fastballs.

Doumit hit a homer and Andrew McCutchen had a couple hits to raise his BA to .324.  McCutchen’s .371 BABIP is high for even him — he’s more of a .290 hitter.

Mike Leake magically turned 10 hits and a walk into only a single earned run.  Leake went 7.1 innings and struck out three — This kid can pitch and if this were a different year (read. no Heyward,) he’d be the odds on favourite to win the NL ROY.

Lester walked FIVE! batters and gave up one hit in his 6 inning, 0ER, 9K performance.  Despite the walks, he’s back to being Jon Lester, future Cy Young award winner. A single by Wily Aybar was the only hit on the day against Lester.  I’m starting to think that the Rays enjoy being no-hit.

James Shields allowed 2 ER, 4H, 2BB while striking out 5 over his 8 inning stint.  Shields pitched a terrific game and is still amongst the elite.

Mike Cameron is back, yet it was Ellsbury rather than Hermida that sat.

Jose Reyes stole 2 bases, had 3 hits, and scored 3 runs last night.  He is an elite shortstop, even if the power’s not there.

R.A. Dickey had 7K in 6IP but I’d rather not discuss a knuckleballer.  Dickey managed to get his way out of three bases loaded jams in the first three innings, so thing’s aren’t exactly exciting.

Derrek Lee hit a homer but the BA is still a concern — Lee’s hitting 21% LD and his BABIP is .262 so there’s definitely room for improvement. ZiPS has him hitting .280 the rest of the season.

Ryan Dempster looked great holding LA scoreless while allowing three hits while striking out seven and walking a single batter.

Clayton Kershaw only allowed 4 H and a couple of walks but it once again took him 100+ pitches to get through 6IP.

Vladdy Guerrero went off for a couple of DINGERS! in his 5RBI performance.  Hamilton and Cruz didn’t miss out on the action, each hitting one of their own.

Billy Butler continued his hot hitting with a couple hits and a walk.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gil Meche is hurt; something’s wrong with his delivery and presence. Meche gave up 6 R (4ER) on 4HR and has a 6.66 ERA on the year.

Rich Harden continues to test my patience after allowing 6R (5ER) against the Royals.  Neftali Feliz got the save and looks to be doing his thang.

Rickie Weeks went 3-for-5 with 2R, 2RBI and a HR.  Weeks still strikes out too much and doesn’t walk nearly enough but this may be a sign that his mid-May slump is over.

Recent call-up, Jonathan Lucroy, has a couple hits in his first two games.  Unfortunately, the ballsy catcher saw it fit to try and steal a base — fail.  Lucroy did steal 8 bases in A-ball a couple years ago, but I wouldn’t count on more than 1 at the MLB level.  Lucroy will more than like split the platoon with Kottaras while Zaun’s out.

Both Jhouyls Chacin and Ian Kennedy pitched a’ight games.  If I had to pick one going forward, Chacin’s electric stuff takes it.

Yah, that’s Troy Tulowitzki’s third homer in 3 games and 4th in 5 games.

In THE pitching match-up of the night, Jon Garland tossed 7IP of scoreless baseball for the win but was outpitched by Adam Wainwright who, aside from a solo-knock by Hairston Jr, pitched brilliantly.  Wainwright struck out 12 Padres while only allowing a single walk and four hits — that’s how the cookie crumbles, I guess.

Jose Bautista hit another homer, as did Jeremy Reed and Aaron Hill, but it wasn’t enough.  Aside from the Dingers!, Ervin Santana pitched a masterful game by locating his fastball and getting the Jays to chase that dirty slider.  Santana pitched a complete game 4-hitter with 10Ks — going forward, I wouldn’t be too worried about those HR.

Mike Napoli is on fire: 4HR in his last 5G and 5HR in his last 8G.

Doug Fister got yet another win from a 7 inning, 3R, 2ER, 1K performance.  This guy blows my mind.

Maybe Milton Bradley’s finally rounding into form with a homer and 3RBI last night.

Livan Hernandez is finally regressing!!!!

4ER in 5IP on 7Hits last night.

Aaron Hill

Sacks Juiced: May 18th

Homer Bailey went seven strong innings against the Brewers, giving up 4H, 2BB and a couple ER.  Bailey settled down well after giving up both earned runs in the first.  He relied heavily on his fastball (71%) but his change-up looked better than it had in a couple starts.

Jay Bruce stole a base and collected a couple hits off lefty, Manny Parra.  Bruce has slowly been improving his platoon splits but it’s still quite sensible to sit him against top-tier lefties.  Jay Bruce is now hitting .280 on the year after a .223 ’08 campaign.  Bruce may be striking out more in 2010 but his swing-rate and swinging strikes are both down.  More importantly, Bruce has upped his walk-rate by swinging less outside of the zone.  You get the feeling that a break-out month is on the horizon for Jay Bruce.

Casey McGehee continued to absolutely punish the baseball with 3 hits on Tuesday.  After a 2009 season where McGehee owned the fastball, he’s been doing most of his damage this year on off-speed stuff.  McGehee’s BABIP isn’t spectacularly high — it’s actually the same .330 it was last year – but with only 10% of his hits as line-drives, there’s some concern.

The Toronto Blue Jays continued to light up mistake prone pitches against the Twins and Carl Pavano.  Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion all went yard.  Blue Jays not named Aaron Hill or Adam Lind will eventually regress but I’m not going to be the one to predict it.  With Hill’s homer and Adam Lind’s 2-hit game, their batting averages now sit at .175 and .231, respectively.  Adam Lind will have trouble duplicating his 2009 break-out season without cutting his Ks down to 2009 levels:  currently, he’s at 29% versus 19% in 2009.

Shaun Marcum continues to dominate with control after missing all of 2009 but the ERA is a bit lucky.  Expecting something closer to 2008′s 3.40ERA rather than 2010′s current 2.61 ERA seems to make sense.  Marcum’s ability to move the fastball and place the change-up wherever he damn-well pleases is extraordinary.

Rick Porcello’s sinker just isn’t sinking which is a problem when your value’s tied up in ERA and WHIP. At this point, I’m having major issues seeing Porcello’s upside, especially if he continues to walk almost as many batters as he’s striking out. Rick Porcello walked another 3 batters last night in a very mediocre performance (7IP, 4ER, 8H, 3BB, 2K) against the White Sox.

With 2 Hits and a steal, Brennan Boesch is now hitting .387 on the strength of a .426 BABIP.  The rook’s slugging percentage sits at a darling .680 but this can only last so long with a BB-Rate of 3% and a 51% O-Swing.

Andruw Jones went 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts last night; Can you believe Jones has 7 SB on the year?

Thankfully for White Sox fans, Bobby Jenks pitched a pretty clean 9th inning:  1H, 0BB and 2 Ks.  Sergio Santos walked a couple in one inning’s work to raise his WHIP to 1.08.  Hitters are only hitting .165 against Santos and his very live fastball (AVG Speed: 95.6mph).

Florida spanked Arizona eight to nil on Tuesday.  Justin Upton was the only Diamondback position player to record a hit — which he bundled with another 2 SO, lovely.

Cameron Maybin hit in the 2-hole and recorded a homer, a walk and a strike-out.  The kid’s still hitting just .242 (on a .341 BABIP) and striking out 32.6% of the time.

David Price pitched another solid game for his sixth win of the year.  I’d really like to see Price return to the BB numbers of 2008 (2.57) before I fully endorse him as elite, though.  While Price is getting a bit lucky on balls in play, he’s still pitching incredibly well with a 3.06 FIP and a True ERA (tERA) of 2.91.

Ben Zobrist is still without a homer, but i’d hardly call him a major disappointment after his 7th steal of the year.  His .340 BABIP is almost negated by a 5% increase in line-drives over last year.  The major concerns that I have with Zobrist is his huge jump in O-Swing (’09: 19%, 10: 27%) and decline in BB-Rate (’09: 15%, ’10: 10%).

The Royals and Orioles game was a thriller, just ask the reported 9,715 fans that showed up at Camden to take in the baseball super-event.  Kevin Millwood, a man that I’ll never roster, continued his hot streak going 8 strong innings, striking out seven without a walk.  Millwood’s ERA is now 3.65 on the year and he’s striking out more than 7 batters per 9.

Jose Guillen had two more hits and is now batting .261 with 8HR.  Guillen has quietly gone about matching his 2009 power numbers in about half the games.  He’s already accumulated one more double, one fewer homer, seven fewer runs, and 15 fewer RBI in 41 fewer games.

Zack Greinke got yet another no-decision, despite 7IP, 2ER, 6K and 1BB.  That’s one whole win on the entire year, folks.  If there’s anyway that you can acquire Greinke, I’d do it.  He’ll still end up with at least 10-12 wins on the year.

I’m a bit sensitive about Josh Beckett as the former Texas Highschooler was one of my first ever keeper picks.  In 4.2IP, Beckett gave up another 3ER — That’s good for a season ERA on the wrong side of 7.

C.C. Sabathia allowed a single run in seven solid innings but I’m somewhat concerned about the strike-out and walk totals.  C.C. has a habit of starting out poorly but he’s barely striking out six batters per nine and walking almost 3-per-9.  He should eventually round back into form before that .239 BABIP catches up to him.

Roy Halladay’s complete game, two ER, six K, performance was out-dueled by Zack Duke et. al.  Evan Meek pitched another solid inning in relief, striking out one and walking another.  On the season, Meek has a ERA of 0.69 and has managed to strike-out a batter per inning while only walking 2.42-per-9.  Evan Meek’s added a couple of MPH across the board and his average fastball hitting 95mph is starting to look closer-worthy.  All the plate discipline indicators show that hitters are having trouble with his stuff; it’s just a matter of sustaining the BB-Rate, which he’s lopped in half since 2009.

Ike Davis hit a dinger, his first in a couple weeks.  While the strike-outs are worrisome, he’s walking almost 16% of the time.  There will inconsistency but Davis has looked pretty good thus far:  .275 AVG /.393 OBP/ .466 SLG.

Kris Medlen continued to prove his case with 6.1 innings of 4 Hit ball.  Medlen allowed a couple homers while striking out six and walking a couple.

I have absolutely no fucking clue how Carlos Silva continues to pitch this well.

Five walks in just over five innings got Jhoulys Chacin into trouble.  He still managed to strike-out six batters and his season ERA is now at 3.12.  If Chacin can keep his K:BB on the right side of two, he’ll have success going forward.  Expect the normal bumps and bruises, though.

Carlos Zambrano pitched a perfect ninth: two strike-outs and no walks!  The Cubs want him and his gigantic salary back in the rotation, which at least gives Big-Z owners hope.

Tyler Colvin took advantage of the playing time, knocking in a run and scoring a couple on three hits.  I’m not sure how the Cubbies can make this work but this kid needs to see some consistent at-bats.

Carlos Gonzalez had two hits for the Rockies but there is something dirty about his 2.7% BB-Rate hitting lead-off.

Ian Kinsler hit his first dinger of the year to help Texas beat the Angels.  On the season, Vladdy Guerrero now has eight homers after another one last night.  The question is not if Guerrero will come up with a bum hamstring but when.

Neftali Feliz is rounding back into form, pitching a scoreless ninth with two K’s.

At what point do the Angels just give up on Brandon Wood? Another hitless game for Wood.

Felipe Lopez lead off for the Cardinals last night.  You know the deal with Lopez, he’ll score runs and steal bases but it won’t be pretty.  I’ve got a feeling that Lopez might return to his 20 SB days after stealing just 14 over the course of the previous two years.

Six hits over two games was all it took Ian Desmond to raise his batting average from .246 to .279 — Wonky, eh?    This is a guy that flashed 30SB potential throughout the minors but it’s yet to translate.  In 2009, across two levels and a cup of coffee (AA-AAA-MLB,) Desmond stole 22 Bases.

Felix Hernandez got hit pretty hard (11H, 2BB) without it translating into ER (3).  Ben Sheets came back down to earth as he walked 4 more batters en route to 4ER.

Kurt Suzuki had 3 hits to raise his batting average from .239 to .264.  He’s still a viable option at catcher.

The story of the extra-innings game between the Padres and the Giants was Mat Latos.  Neither Latos nor the Padres got the win thanks in part to Mike Adams’ blown save in the eighth.  Mat Latos’ WHIP now sits just below 1.00 in part because he’s given up just 1 walk in his previous three starts.  Definitely someone worth locking your sights on.

Bud Norris exploded yet again against the Dodgers.  With a couple of hits and a homer, Carlos Lee may finally be starting to heat up.

Aaron Hill

ESPN Added/Dropped Analysis

Yanno, if you throw enough shit against the wall some will stick.  For the most part, I forget about fantasy baseball series I try to put together.  I figure this one might stick though, it seems to have a solid premise: analyze who’s gettin’ picked up and who’s gettin’ dropped. Read more

Aaron Hill

The Toronto Blue Jays, For The Wins?

Brian Burress and his brand-spankin’ new 12.76 ERA and 2.54 WHIP will not be included in this article.  The main benefactor, Alexei Ramirez and his 5RBI, will also be left out of this discussion.

In case you haven’t figured out by now, the Jays are my home squad and while they’re not my favourite club — I manage to watch at least a few innings of each game.

As always, the small-sample size warning is in effect, but here are your Toronto Blue Jays with some quick analysis and statistics that stand out, at least to me. Read more

Aaron Hill

Top Second Basemen In Keeper Dynasty League

Second basemen don’t grow on trees, and they’re pretty tough to predict coming out of the minors.  You’ll find most second basemen are converted shortstops that lack athleticism or a gun for an arm.  Learning the pivot, or learning how to read the ball from the other side of the diamond aren’t easy, but they’re a lot easier than adding range or a better arm…..now that steroids are gone, anyways.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Ian Kinsler – TEX Rangers – 26 – Edges out Pedroia’s career year of 2008.  Kinsler has to avoid injury, but other than that he’s a great power-speed combo. I’d like to see Kinsler show *it* for another year before giving him this spot, but I’m just not that high on Pedroia’s skill-set.

2. Dustin Pedroia – BOS Red Sox – 25 – Not the most talented guy, but he’s got a solid average and is in a great line-up.

3. Chase Utley – PHI Phillies – 30 - Utley starts the year out on the DL, and he’s starting to get old for a MI.  You should expect 3 or 4 more years of great power numbers.

4. Brandon Phillips – CIN Reds – 27 – Great Power / Speed combo, and so long as the Reds are mediocre, he’ll continue to swipe bags well into his early-to-mid thirties.  Great ballpark, and a maturing Bruce / Votto combo should start driving him in.

5. Alexei Ramirez – CHI White Sox – 27 - I couldn’t be more on the fence about Ramirez.  He ranks lower as a shortstop than a second basemen.  I tend to think that the Ramirez SS experience doesn’t last more than a year or so.  Ramirez reminds everyone of Alfonso Soriano, as he’ll swing at damn near anything.  If pitchers figure him out, he’ll be in trouble.

6. Dan Uggla – FLA Marlins – 29 - A Whole lotta power that’ll stick around for at least another 4 or 5 years. I dont know how many 100 R / 100 RBI seasons he’s got left in him though.

7. Howie Kendrick – LA Angels – 25 - Should eventually become a hitting machine. He’s a unique talent that just can’t stay healthy.  The Angels are a solid franchise, and although they’re aging — they’ll reload, allowing Kendrick to score boat-loads of runs.

8. Robbie Cano – NY Yankees – 26 - Cano should return to his .300+ ways, in which case he’ll be moved up a spot or two.  Wherever he hits, he’ll score ‘em and knock ‘em in. I’d like to see a couple months of the old Cano before I get too excited.

9. Kelly Johnson – ATL Braves – 27 - Should continue to develop as he matures.  Solid Braves line-up, and some power potential in there.

10. Jose Lopez – SEA Mariners – 25 – Young and talented, but I’m worried about him repeating his stellar 2008 season though.  Who knows how awful that Mariners line-up will be in 2009, let alone when Ichiro departs.

11. Brian Roberts – BAL Orioles – 31 - I’m not sure how much speed Roberts has left in those legs.  He’ll probably have a couple 30+ SB seasons left in ‘em, and the O’s line-up is improved enough to knock him in.  When he falls off though, he’s going to fall off hard and fast.  Roberts is one of the nicer guys in the big leagues, which is strange considering he was all up in that Mitchell Report.

12. Rickie Weeks – MIL Brewers – 26 - He’s got a year, maybe two, to put it all together.  Even if he doesn’t put it together, he’ll contribute steals and runs without hurting you *too* much.

13. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 - Injuries starting to catch up to him, and who knows how long he’ll keep his second base eligibility. It’ll be nice to see what Figgins can do with a return to full health.  He’s been used sparingly, so he’s probably got a few more years left in those legs.

14. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Power potential + Plays in Coors.  That’s pretty much all you need to know.  He may fit better at 3rd, or in the outfield.  Lots of potential here though.

15. Matt Antonelli – SD Padres – 23 – First of the big-name prospects, Antonelli has had a rollercoaster ride in the Minors.  He still projects to be damn good though. Unfortunately, he plays in San Diego.

16. Alexi Casilla – MIN Twins – 24 – I like Alexi more than most, and he’ll bring a solid BA and SB numbers to the table.

17. Aaron Hill – TOR Blue Jays – 27 - If Aaron Hill picks up where he left off, he’ll mature into a second basemen with low-20′s HR power.  Post Concussion really sidetracked him, and who knows if he’ll ever be the same.

18. Mike Aviles – KC Royals – 28 – KC will be improved, but you’re drafting Aviles average which isn’t the safest bet.  Remember how Sanchez followed up his .330 BA season?  Always be hesitant drafting late bloomers.

19. Felipe Lopez – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Yah Yah Yah – I’m big on Lopez, You get it.

20. Eric Young Jr. – COL Rockies – 23 - Young’s stock has been more volatile than the DOW.  With an amazing Arizona Fall League, and Spring Training — Young’s back.  With Colorado’s outfield crowded with top-tier prospects, he may stick at 2nd.  He’s back in the minors for the time being though. When he gets the call, he’ll at least contribute to SB to start.

21. Absdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians – 23 - He may take a while to mature, and you’re going to need patience.  He could show flashes as soon as this year. He’s a solid sleeper this year, and a great buy-low keeper option.

22. Chris Getz – CHI White Sox – 25 – If he was guarenteed the job, he’d be higher.  Dustin Pedroia brought scrappy, unathletic, slow, short, white-dude back in style and Getz should cash in.  All Getz has to do is fight off Nix and Lillibridge.

23. Aki Iwamura – TB Rays – 30 - He’ll score 100 runs for the next couple years.

24. Alberto Callaspo – KC Royals – 25 - I thought the D-Backs would hold onto Callaspo; alas he’s part of the KC mess at 2b.  He might project as a better UTIL player than an everyday player but there’s upside in there, somewhere.

25. Mark DeRosa – CLE Indians – 34 - A solid bet for a year or two of solid production.  Not 2008-type production, but production.

26. Anderson Hernandez – WAS Nationals – 26 – I’m not sure how this mess turns out, but it’ll have minimum value for the next couple years unless Hernandez rises to the top of the newly potent Nats line-up.

27. Eric Patterson – OAK Athletics – 25 - Probably projects as an outfielder, but the A’s were wise to nab him from the Cubs. Patterson was recently optioned, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the call as soon as this year.

28. Orlando Hudson – LA Dodgers – 31 – He’s in a solid line-up, and he’ll contribute for maybe a year and a half.  Realistically, Hudson could go anywhere from 23rd to 30th.

29. Kaz Matsui – HOU Astros – 33 - No more anal fissures.  He’ll hit for a decent average, score runs and steal bases.  Nice filler while you wait on the next big thing.

30. Emmanuel Burriss – SF Giants – 24 - Lots of Speed, but’ll probably have to battle tooth and nail for the 2B job.  We’ll see soon enough… Bruce Bochy announces the winner tomorrow, I believe.

31. Placido Polanco – DET Tigers – 33 - Detroit’s got a solid line-up, and I think Polanco has another year and a bit left in it.  He’ll hit for a good average and score runs. Second Base gets old in a hurry.

32. Freddy Sanchez – PIT Pirates – 31 - Paying for batting average is the last thing I’d do.  If the LaRoche brothers somehow transform into the steroid era bash brothers, then maybe Sanchez will have long-term value.

33. Mike Fontenot – CHI Cubs – 28 - Fontenot or Miles, they’ll probably split the job until a Free Agent comes in.  Both of their values are thrown in the trash because of the time-share.

34. Blake DeWitt – LA Dodgers – 23 - I’m assuming he’ll eventually come in at third-base, rather than second. Should be an above average UTIL guy, with a season of two worth of starter’s production.

35. Jerry Hairston Jr. – CIN Reds – 32 - Cheapo steals and average this year.

36. Luis Valbuena – CLE Indians – 24 - Keep an eye out.

37. Clint Barmes – COL Rockies – 30 - Boring.

38. Mark Ellis – OAK Athletics – 31 - Ditto.

39. Willy Aybar – TAM Rays – 26 – There’s actually some value in Aybar’s versatility, but he’s not a keeper.

40. Kevin Frandsen – SF Giants – 26 - I don’t think he keeps the job for more than a year, or a month, or a month, or a week.

41. Travis Denker – SD Padres – 23 - Antonelli has it, but keep an eye out.

Skip Schumaker – STL Cardinals – 29 - Skip’s been working out at second base all spring and if he lands the job, which he should, he’ll be able to contribute.  I wouldn’t feel bad about putting him in the Mid-to-High Teens.

Mark Teahan – KC Royals – 27 - There’s no way he sticks at 2B.  He’s athletic as hell, and has a good arm — but he’ll need some serious seasoning to pick the position up.  If he does, he has above average power and is in an improving Royals line-up.  Low-20s.

Aaron Hill

Blue Jays’ Aaron Hill vs. White Sox Chris Getz

This is a good one, and I’m glad someone asked it.  Both of these players should contribute to plenty of fantasy teams in deep leagues, and have the potential to possibly even contribute to teams in shallow leagues — if everything goes well.

What we’re dealing with here is two late blooming second basemen, who both have a shot at contributing for 5 or so more years.  Hill’s coming in at 27 this year, and Getz will be 26 by the end of the year.

Aaron Hill’s been Toronto’s second basemen since essentially 2005, but has had his career thrown off course by post-concussion syndrome. As an added bonus, Aaron Hill enters the batters box to Ozzy Osbourne’s Iron Man which strangely enough provides an epic backdrop for my howls of  “I AM AARON HILL, lalalalala, AARON HILL”.

Chris Getz on the other hand is in a battle with former Braves prospect, Brett Lillibridge and equally as uninspiring Jayson Nix.  Jayson Nix appeared to have the edge on Getz until an injury side-lined him until late-April, early-May. Now it appears as though Getz has the second base job, with Cuban phenom, Alexei Ramirez switching from second base to shortstop.

Both Hill and Getz have a distinct risk of missing large chunks of playing time; Hill has his head, and Getz has competition for the job.

Batting Average and On-Base Percentage

Aaron Hill is easier to predict, as he’s had a good amount of Major League at-bats. Hill had posted consecutive .291 seasons in 2006 & 2007 before his disastrous 2008 season of hitting .263.

If Hill has returned to full health, we’re looking at a .285 hitter that’ll probably start off slow as he re-adjusts after missing nearly 100 games last year.

Other than Getz’s 2006 season in AA, he’s proven he’s a .300 hitter in the minors. He’s a scrappy little hitter that’ll probably come close to hitting .275-.280 in the show.

Both Hill and Getz walk at a rate of between 7 and 10 percent, and strike-out an acceptable 14-15% of the time.  What little room Getz gives up in batting average, he makes up for in walk-rate.  Hill and Getz should post similar .335-.345 OBP in 2009.

Home Runs and Slugging Percentage

While Aaron Hill displayed average power from the second base spot in 2007 posting 17-HR, he’s much more likely to display low-teens home-run power in 2009.  The same holds true for Getz, who’s career high was 11-HR in 404 AAA at-bats last year.

Hill gets the edge based solely on potential, as it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see Hill top 15 home runs again, in 2009.

Counting Stats, Runs and RBI

I’m predicting Doom and Gloom for the Toronto Blue Jays this year, but Hill should at least put up half-decent Run totals with Wells, Rios, and Lind following him in the line-up.  A healthy Scott Rolen would mean a lot to this line-up, but when was the last time Scott Rolen was healthy?

The back-end of the Jays line-up will be hit and miss throughout the year, which’ll be reflected in Hill’s RBI totals.  The Blue Jays line-up is solid, but not spectacular in a division that is filled with about 10 different aces, not counting Roy Halladay. I tend to think that facing Sabathia, Burnett, Wang, Beckett, Dice-K, Kazmir, Shields with the possibilities of Price, Smoltz, Bucholz and a healthy Andy Petitte is going to negatively effect all of the Blue Jays’ and Orioles’ stat-lines this year.

A fair expectation for Hill, assuming he sticks at the front-end of the Jays line-up is about 75-80 Runs, with 65-70RBI.

Christopher Getz on the other hand, could realistically bat anywhere in that aging, but nevertheless loaded, White Sox line-up. If Getz can bat early, he’ll be followed by Quentin, Dye, Thome, Konerko. With both Orlando Cabrera and Nick Swisher gone, the lead-off and number two spots in the line-up are up for grabs.

Brian Anderson is realistically the only other guy that could hit lead-off for this club, and he’s projected to get on base at a .300-clip.  Alexei Ramirez’s free swinging ways will have him hitting .290 but barely getting on-base greater than a .325 clip. It really looks like Chris Getz will bat in the 1 or 2 spot, if he can hold off Lillibridge and more importantly Nix.

If Getz does bat early in this line-up, expect big numbers. The possibility of 85 Runs scored in 140 Games is a very real one. If Getz can get on base, the crew behind him should be able to knock him home.  The RBI totals should be equally as solid with the back-end up the White Sox’s line-up consisting of Josh Fields, A.J. Pierzynski, or Brian Anderson.  I’d set my sites on 65 RBI, assuming Getz manages to hold onto the job all year.

Getz has a solid shot of matching Orlando Cabrera’s numbers from last year, as he hits for about the same average, gets on-base at about the same clip, and slugs at around the same percentage. Getz doesn’t possess Cabrera’s speed, but I doubt it’ll effect his scoring ability.

Getz also isn’t a whiney little bastard child, who tries to pan errors off on other players.

Cabrera’s numbers were 93R and 57 RBI, while he only got on-base at a .334 clip which Getz could easily eclipse.

America’s Midwest: Speed Capital of the Universe.

Getz has a clear-cut advantage in this category, as he’s predicted to steal 10 to 15 bases assuming he can get to the 400AB mark.  Aaron Hill while not slow,  will top out at about 10-12 stolen bases with a more aggressive Cito Gaston at the helm. A much more realistic projection is about 6 to 7 SB.

What little advantage Hill has in home-runs, he gives back in the speed department.  Realistically Getz and Hill with both put up mid-20′s combined HR and SB.

If Getz can keep hold of the job the entire year, 20+ SB isn’t out of the question.  Guillen’s allowing him run this spring, leading to Getz stealing 4 and only getting caught once.

Conclusion

This one’s a mess.  The second base position on the White Sox will outpace Aaron Hill by a good amount in 3 of the 5 categories, with the other two categories probably being a wash.

The problem posed however, is that the battle for the White Sox starting second base job is still quite uncertain.  It looks like Getz will at least start the year off as the full-time starter, but when Nix gets healthy the competition will resume.  Alexei Ramirez isn’t exactly stellar at shortstop, and Chicago’s offense is already loaded, which leads me to believe Ozzie Guillen may opt for a defensive second basemen. If Ramirez struggles in the field, there’s even the potential for Lillibridge to man short with Ramirez switching back to second.

Aaron Hill on the other hand, has displayed the potential to be rosterable in a 12-team mixed league, with 20-HR pop and a .290 average. However, the Blue Jays line-up just isn’t as enticing as the Sox.

Getz and Hill actually form a moderately successful platoon in deeper leagues, where drafting both is a solid strategy.  If Getz takes off as the starter for Chicago, feel free to drop Hill. Otherwise, Hill leaves you with a solid, predictable, second baseman to fill the hole.  Hill’s concussion problems have plagued him, but he’s went through spring training without any major headaches, or nausea.

Getz has posted a very solid .308/.379/.423 spring training with 1 HR and 4SB in 52 AB.  Hill on the other hand, whose Spring Training stats mean far less, has posted a .268/.362/.439 with 0 HR and 1SB in 41AB.

When comparing these two, you’ve got to ask yourself whether or not Getz can get to 120-140 games as the starter.  Even if Getz can hold down the job for 120 games; His numbers plus the numbers of the waiver-wire bait you pick up to fill the other 40 games will probably eclipse Hill.

If you’re thinking about Hill vs. Getz, you’re obviously in a fairly deep league; So it may make sense to hedge your bets and take the safer Aaron Hill.  If you have a propensity for risk though, or you’ve minimized your risk elsewhere — Getz is the pick.

In shallow leagues, where you’re looking for a high-risk / high-reward pick, Getz is also the pick.

By the way, what is the possessive of Sox...Sox? or Sox's?

Photo Courtesy of mlb.com

Aaron Hill

ESPN 2009 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Examining Second Basemen.

ESPN seems to have some glaring holes in the second basemen rankings, so here’s your cup of tea for the day.

RANK	OVR	Name	Team	Position(s)	Mixed $	AL/NL $	UPDOWN
1	14	Dustin Pedroia	BOS	2B	28	27
There’s no arguing with Pedroia at 1, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of 2008. Pedroia doesn’t strike the same fear you’d expect from an MVP. 14th overall seems right, but second base has a lot of value this year.
2	16	Chase Utley	PHI	2B	26	27
If Utley comes in healthy, and gets at least a little time under his belt prior to the season – he’s number one. Utley has about 3 weeks of the season to take off, before I’d drop him below Brandon Phillips and crew.
3	25	Ian Kinsler	TEX	2B	22	26
The little guy cannot stay healthy, at all. He’s a superb talent that can’t seem to play a whole season. Obviously, you’re going to have to rank Kinsler based on the depth of your league. If you can fill the 25 or so games that Kinsler will miss with a half-decent player, then Kinsler might just be the best fantasy option at second base. As a player, I like him more than Pedroia but less than Utley.
4	34	Brandon Phillips	CIN	2B	17	23
Phillips brings everything except batting average, which he should hike up to at least .270ish this year. Phillips is a given for 20/20 with the possibility of 25/25 or even 25/30! The Reds should be a blast to watch this year, and having Phillips on your team will at least keep things fun.
5	38	Brian Roberts	BAL	2B	16	24
At least the Orioles think that Roberts has something left in the tank, giving him a new multi-year deal. Roberts leaves a little bit to be desired in the power category but more than makes up for it with SB numbers. He went for 50 a couple years ago, and 40 last year. Like the Reds, the O’s are stacked with young talent and should be fun to watch. I figure Roberts will miss 40 SB by a couple.
6	62	Alexei Ramirez	CHW	2B	13	21
Ramirez is the most interesting of the bunch, as he seems to have all the potential in the world. He could easily finish the season as the top second baseman in the league. Not often do you get a player outside the top-50, that has the potential to jump up into the top-15. Here’s the problem with Ramirez: He Swings at Everything and gets caught stealing way too much. Ramirez’s numbers will drop once pitchers completely clue into Ramirez’s hacking ways, and whether or not Ramirez can adjust remains up in the air. Ramirez hit 20 HR and stole 13 bases in limited playing time last year. He was unfortunately caught stealing 9 times. Is 30HR and 25 SB a possibility for Ramirez? A Resounding Yes. Could he also fall flat on his face? Indeed.
7	91	Dan Uggla	FLA	2B	9	18	Down
Uggla posted a career high strike-out rate last year, striking out nearly one third of the time. Thankfully, he also improved upon his walk rate, negating much of the increase. Uggla’s BA is going to kill you, as he’s bound to come in somewhere between .250 and .260. You’re either going to have to punt batting average, or draft a low-HR-high-AVG player in a typical power position. If you can get 20HR and a good AVG out of a player like that, you’ll have two players with about 50 HR between them, to go with a .280 AVG. That’s not bad, and you’ll probably be getting your money’s worth.
8	109	Robinson Cano	NYY	2B	7	18	Up
Robbie started off terribly last year, and playing in the stacked Yankees line-up will definitely help his counting stats. Most of Cano’s value will come from his AVG, or how often he gets on base. Throw Cano’s .270 AVG of 2008 out the window, and remember he used to hit .340.
9	118	Howie Kendrick	LAA	2B	7	17
Kendrick will get hurt, but the kid can hit. He’s in a good line-up and he’s approaching the age when things start to click. Kendrick’s a good boom/bust but Anaheim is stacked in youngins that can play the MI positions.
10	126	Placido Polanco	DET	2B	6	17	Down
Polanco is boring, but Detroit will be improved. Polanco doesn’t do the sexy things, but he hits for average and scores runs. A safety pick that brings about 10 HR, 10SB, a Boatload of Runs and RBI and a .300+ average. People will draft the guys after Polanco before him, because their ceiling is higher – If you want a safe pick though, Polanco’s your man. Nice pick here for ESPN.
11	143	Jose Lopez	SEA	2B	5	16
Lopez has been raking all spring, and a repeat of last year’s numbers seems a very safe bet. Can Lopez step up and reach the 20 HR mark? I’m banking on yes. Lopez’s average will drop but the power numbers should go up. He is in a fairly terrible offense though, so whether or not he brings elite R & RBI is still in question.
12	159	Mike Aviles	KC	2B/SS	4	15	Down
I’m not an Aviles fan, and I think this is still too high. I love the Royals this year, but Aviles is a bit old to be a rookie in my book.
13	175	Mark DeRosa	CLE	2B/3B/OF	3	14
DeRosa started out as a fairly sexy pick, and has returned to where he probably should be valued. He had a career year last year, and while I wouldn’t expect a complete repeat – there’s still good value here.
14	185	Rickie Weeks	MIL	2B	2	13
It’s Rickie’s last shot, and I think he goes hog-wild on the basepaths. Alcides Escobar is breathing down the neck of whomever falters in the infield. Rickie Weeks and the next couple guys showcase the benefits of waiting on a second baseman and then grabbing a couple high-risk players and hoping one pans out.
15	187	Kelly Johnson	ATL	2B	2	13
Kelly Johnson does what he does and does it well. He’s not spectacular, nor does he play in an incredible line-up, but he still has value. The .5 BB:K ratio isn’t awful, but he could cut down on his 20+ percent K Rate. BABIP says expect a downturn in AVG. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him up the ante on last years 12HR. 15Ish? 17?
16	196	Felipe Lopez	ARI	2B	1	13	Up
My favourite sleeper this year. Lopez should be hitting near the top of that stacked Diamondback line-up. The deal with Lopez is he only plays when he wants to, so his stats tend to lie. Remember, it was only 2 years ago that Lopez stole 44 Bases.
17	222	Freddy Sanchez	PIT	2B	1	12	Down
The Pirates are improving but Sanchez’s value is based on his batting average. If you can predict BA, then you can go ahead and rank Sanchez wherever you please. If he hits .330 again, he’ll be a steal. The improvement in the Pirates give Sanchez a bit of lee-way, as he could well score 90-95 Runs.
18	223	Orlando Hudson	LAD	2B	1	12
Hudson and the Dodgers. I’d move him up. He’ll be in a great line-up and I’m starting to think he bats early in the line-up rather than late in it. With Kemp, Manny and Loney behind him he’s just gotta get on base. I’d take him over Sanchez any day.
19	253	Kazuo Matsui	HOU	2B	$-	12
Matsui is starting to get up there in age but he stole 20 bases in under 400 AB in 2008. Matsui’s nearly .300 average last year, made him a steal. He probably won’t repeat the average, but a slight increase in steals if he plays a full season is very realistic. The possibility of 30SB to go with a .280 AVG is pretty appealing at this point.
20	258	Mark Ellis	OAK	2B	$-	11
Ellis had a very solid year last year, and Oakland has went out and re-loaded this off-season. With the maturation of Travis Buck, Daric Barton and the addition of Matt Holliday, and Jason Giambi; Oakland should be a very solid offense. Expect Ellis to quietly put up solid numbers.
21	268	Akinori Iwamura	TAM	2B	$-	10
He’ll put up damn near 100 runs to go with a solid batting average. You get what you pay for.
22	294	Mike Fontenot	CHC	2B	$-	9
Fontenot should get the job, but Aaron Miles is right there. If either of these two can get to 550AB, they’re in a good enough offense to outperform their draft spot. Pick 300 seems about right for the higher-upside Fontenot.
23	295	Clint Barmes	COL	2B/SS	$-	8	Down
I’m not a Barmes fan, mainly because I love Ian Stewart so. You could do worse at this point, but this tier of second basemen is very deep.
24	299	Asdrubal Cabrera	CLE	2B/SS	$-	9	Up
I’m high on Cabrera, and Cleveland in general. I wouldn’t have any problem putting Cabrera in Aviles spot, but anyone from 15 to 5 Dollars has the possibility to preform.
25	323	Aaron Hill	TOR	2B	$-	8
Aaron Hill is a steal at this point if he plays all year. Post Concussion Syndrome is a bitch, though. The Jays have a solid, yet not spectacular, offense. Hill will probably outperform his peers.
26	334	Luis Castillo	NYM	2B	$-	7	Down
He has the second base job, but I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. At this point, the speed has gone and while he may have a resurgence in a decent Mets line-up, I wouldn’t expect too much.
27	378	Emmanuel Burriss	SF	2B/SS	$-	6
Speed, Speed, Speed, Kelly Fransden. Burriss needs to find a spot to play to be valuable. He’s definitely worth a late round flyer based on speed alone. Same goes for Velez. The Giants are going to have to manufacture runs this year, which means speed on the basepaths.
28	394	Maicer Izturis	LAA	2B/SS	$-	6
I’m not sure how Maicer falls into this spot with the Kendrick Ranking. Maybe he’s a solid fill-in, maybe he only gets 300 AB.
29	413	Anderson Hernandez	WAS	2B	$-	5
Hernandez is someone I’d take over the previous few guys. He’s got the starting gig in a good Nats line-up and he’ll steal bases even if he gets caught. The power wont be there, but at this point what can you expect. Most of the Robots have him coming in at .250, but I’d expect more in the range of the high-.260s, low-.270s and there’s always the chance of him maturing faster than expected.
30	424	Chris Getz	CHW	2B	$-	6	Up
Getz has been compared to Pedroia, at least in stature. I’m not certain as to why Getz has fallen so far in these rankings, but he definitely deserves to be higher in a good-line up that hits in a solid park. I bet he comes closer to 10 dollars than 6 dollars.
31	427	Ronnie Belliard	WAS	2B/3B/1B	$-	4	Down
Boring, and no place to play….yet. With his versatility, he’ll eventually find a place to play.
32	429	Blake DeWitt	LAD	2B/3B	$-	4	Down
Poor DeWitt. Blake’s got third, and Hudson was brought in to play second. The outfield is also packed. Someone’s gotta get hurt for DeWitt to produce.
33	460	Kevin Frandsen	SF	2B	$-	3
Boring, really boring. It’s hard to hype up Frandsen when you’re praying for Burriss or Velez to take his spot.
34	467	Aaron Miles	CHC	2B/SS	$-	3
Fontenot gets the job, but if you’re in a league this deep it makes sense to bet on Miles getting the job. Fontenot has some faults, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see Miles snag the job
35	473	Nick Punto	MIN	2B/SS	$-	3
Punto was hurt a lot by the signing of Crede but like Belliard, he has all sorts of versatility. I think Punto out preforms the previous couple guys all the way up to Chris Getz.
36	479	Jeff Baker	COL	2B/1B	$-	2
If Helton goes down as expected, Baker will find a place to play. Otherwise, Barmes, Stewart, Tulu, and Atkins will fill the infield spots.
37	488	Brendan Ryan	STL	2B/SS	$-	1
We’re getting into very boring land, and I’d much rather take a risky pick with this selection but 1 dollar is fair.
38	523	Brendan Harris	MIN	2B/SS/3B	$-	1
A starting gig and maturation should get Harris at least to a few bucks. He’s a steal this late.
39	526	Marco Scutaro	TOR	2B/SS/3B	$-	1	Up
Full time starter, in a decent offense is worth more than a buck. His average isn’t so awful that he’ll hurt you.
40	529	Eugenio Velez	SF	2B	$-	1	Up
Ditto Emmanuel Burriss.
41	548	Alexi Casilla	MIN	2B	$-	1	Way Up
Really, this is what’s up? Casilla is a beast, and I adore the man. What the hell is ESPN thinking? .280 AVG with 25-30SB and you’re ranking him 41st? I have him in the top 10!
42	683	Ronny Cedeno	SEA	2B/SS	$-	1
43	704	Ray Durham	FA	2B	$-	$-
44	719	Adam Kennedy	TAM	2B	$-	$-
45	722	Mark Grudzielanek	FA	2B	$-	$-
46	730	Mark Loretta	LAD	2B	$-	$-
47	738	Adrian Cardenas	OAK	2B	$-	$-
48	739	Joe Inglett	TOR	2B/OF	$-	$-
49	745	Alberto Callaspo	KC	2B	$-	$-	Up
I have trouble believing that Teahan can stick at 2nd.
50	746	Edgar Gonzalez	SD	2B	$-	$-

Here’s the problem: ESPN released new rankings, and has people floating around all over the field but failed to mention the two guys that seem like a lock at second base.

Skip Schumaker – St. Louis Cardinals: Skip is a dirty dirty man, and has faired very well at second base.  While he only hit 8 HR, he went for 87R and 8 SB while batting above .300.  Right now, he looks like a glamorized Aki Iwamura, but just wait — he’ll be a top-10 2nd basemen.

Mark Teahan – Kansas City Royals: Teahan looked half-decent at the WBC playing third, and he’s got a great arm.  However, playing second base for the Royals has been a chore.  He keeps committing errors, and Collaspo is a fine replacement.  In a perfect fantasy world, Teahan would get enough bats at 2nd Base to gain eligibility and then return to the outfield.  His bat makes him roster-able as a second basemen, but not particularly an outfielder.

Matt Antonelli – San Diego Padres: Antonelli slept through the majority of the 2008 season, waking up occasionally to strike out.  However, this is still the uber-prospect who made 2007 his bitch.  Maybe he makes the big club out of camp, but he’ll probably spend some time down in the minors now that the Padres got the super-talented David Eckstein.  I’d still rather have Antonelli over the Joe Inglett’s of the world.

The Phillies Situation – Marcus Giles, WHAT? and Eric Bruntlett: Bruntlett is penciled in at every conceivable spot on the Phillies depth chart.  If Utley misses serious time, one of these two gents could actually have some value.  Marcus Giles? Yah, he’s in camp.  He used to be very good too, so if you’re in a deep deep league — take a flyer, maybe.

German Duran – Texas Rangers: There’s some upside here, but he only gets a shot if Kinsler hurts himself, which is guarenteed.  25 Games, it is.  If Kinsler ever goes down permenantly, Duran should be nabbed up in deeper leagues.

Eric Young Jr. – Colorado Rockies: He killed Arizona fall league pitching, and has been taking some practice at second base — maybe worth a shot.  If he gets a job in the outfield or at second, he’ll steal some.

Gordon Beckham – Chicago White Sox: As of today, Tuesday March 17th, Gordon Beckham is listed atop the White Sox depth chart at second base.  AWESOME.  Beckham was drafted last year, 8th overall and is just a wee lil child.  Anyways, if he starts he’s good enough, as raw as he is, to ball out.  It’ll be a roller-coaster ride though.  White Sox manager, Ozzie Guillen seems to think that Beckham shouldn’t be used as a UTIL man under any circumstances — which is stellar for Beckham’s development and his keeper league prospects.

Angel Berroa – New York Yankees: Here’s the deal, Cano had an MRI yesterday and it revealed bursitis of the shoulder.  This is not good, and there’s a good chance it’ll flare up again throughout the season.  Those little bursae sacs are bastards, and if Cano can’t go or Jeter gets hurt, Berroa steps in.  In that Yankee line-up, anyone can be successful.