Whether or not this is the hype-machine or the post-hype machine is up for debate. The Manny Ramirez / Jason Bay trade brought Andy LaRoche along with Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen, and Brandon Moss to the Pirates.

LaRoche was once a top-tier prospect, a can’t miss prospect.  Almost every publication had LaRoche in their top-10 position players, if not overall.

Yet LaRoche is proving to be a AAAA player, and his stock has plummeted. Is Adam LaRoche worth the risk after batting a paltry .177 last year between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh.

Here come the stats:

When you look at LaRoche’s minor league numbers you see a future All-Star, then he goes up to the big leagues and gets eaten alive which ends up effecting him negatively upon his return to the minors.

There’s no way to explain this other than LaRoche has been relying solely on his athletic ability, and using it to make up for  mistakes.  LaRoche is the type of player that can guess fastball, get a curve, react and drive the pitch.

When you get to the big leagues, this type of approach doesn’t work. Looking at LaRoche’s K% and BB% tells the story, and the easiest explanation seems to be a poor approach.

The first trip up to the big club in LA brought with it an increase in K% and BB%, which screams of a player emotionally overwhelmed by the switch. When LaRoche realized that hacking wasn’t the way to go, he started taking pitches.

In the 2008 Triple-A season, LaRoche did everything you’d expect a player to do after starting the year in the Minors.  He decased that 25 percent strike-out rate and increased his walk rate to a nutty 23% which lead to a .452 OBP.  Some may view this as a great thing but when a hitter loses his aggressiveness, he tends to fall apart when pressed.

His .439 SLG percentage was nowhere close to his previous Triple-A mark of .550 and .589.  LaRoche was a broken man, a patient broken man.  Rarely will I fault a hitter for being patient, but in LaRoche’s case his patience flew out the window when he was called up again.

What gives me the slightest bit of hope, is that an approach can be changed with work and time.  LaRoche doesn’t appear to be have a hole in his swing and the only thing that stands out is his stupid-silly ground ball rate.

There’s no reason why LaRoche wouldn’t have put in the work this off-season, and the only problem here is time.

Pittsburgh acquired former ROY Eric Hinske, who can play third in a pinch this off-season and waiting in the wings is Pedro Alvarez.  Pedro Alvarez is one hell of a prospect, and Keith Law has him third behind Vitters and Brett Wallace.

With the way Alvarez smashed NCAA pitching over the course of three years, I’d be surprised if he didn’t follow the Evan Longoria path to excellence. There’s no particular reason other than financial that Alvarez wouldn’t get a shot at a September Call-Up.  I really can’t see Alvarez in the minors for more than a year, year and a half.

So, LaRoche’s got a year to prove himself.  I think he gets it done.

Verdict: Feed the post-hype? machine.  You really shouldn’t have to invest that much into LaRoche, and he’s definitely worth the gamble.  His ceiling is limited by the offense he plays in, but playing with his brother should help ease the burden of being a top-prospect.

Photo Courtesy of Matt Bandi Flickr