BDPP93, Tyler Matzek of the Colorado Rockies, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: This Might Blow Up (Sell..to Buy)

Projected Value: Great

I had a feeling that this might happen:  Matzek tops Baseball America’s list of Rockies Prospects.  This is kind of a bummer because the kid looked to slide by as a High+ type player, rather than a full-on superstar.

Matzek saw his value drop during draft day due to the dreaded “signability issue.”  Well, dreaded for baseball teams but terrific for people that invest cash in baseball cards.

The only question with this big lefty is his desire to be great.  Personally, I think the kid has it in ‘em to tear through the minors if Colorado lets ‘em go.  If they try and slow him down, preferring to actually teach him, rather than just usher him; Matzek might start sputtering.

The next question is Matzek’s value in Colorado.  There’s still a stigma surrounding Colorado, so you may actually get a shot to get his stuff 10% cheaper than you’d expect.

Christian Friederich ranked the number two prospect in Colorado’s system, and his red refractor sold for 76 dollars just the other week.

Matzek’s a step above Friederich, and his first Bowman Card’s going to be an autograph.  Combine that with the stir that’ll be caused by BA’s top 100 and the initial buzz of BDPP and you’ll have a card that you can sell now and probably get back in a little under a year for a better price.

Even if he starts in low-A, you’ll still have time to acquire the card before his name starts popping up in “the next big thing” conversations…

BDPP83, Reymond Fuentes of the Boston Red Sox, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: It’s About Value…

Projected Value: High+

Finally, we’ve got some sex appeal in our autograph checklist.  Fuentes is Carlos Beltran’s nephew, or cousin, or something — Only God knows because the internet’s called him about eight different variations of “relative”.

First off Fuentes was drafted by the Red Sox out of Peurto Rico.  The team affiliation is enough to drive the price up, but we’ll have to see where this opens.

Fuentes is young (b. 1991) and fast as fuck (under 6.3 in the 60,) but his frame and already advanced swing that gives hope.  At this point, Fuentes knows how to hit the ball hard from pole to pole.  It’s fair to project at least a slight uptick in power, but for the most part we’re talking a doubles (and triples) machine.

The Red Sox paid him a good amount for the 28th spot and you’ve got to assume that he’s more than just a trade chip.  Obviously, the most important aspect of value is whether or not he plays for the Red Sox — Which, I have to assume he will.

Right now, he’s only weighing in at a buck-sixty, which leaves plenty of room for growth without sacrificing speed.

The Tristar Cards are presenting pretty awesome deals right now, and I’m buying.  Whether or not his stock rises before BDPP (a good chance w/ BB America’s Organizational Lists heading towards the American League Soon)

BDPP78, Tim Wheeler of the Colorado Rockies, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Probably Buying

Projected Value: Medium +

Wheeler and Brett Jackson seem to be linked at the hip: a shared hip that’s pretty athletically gifted.  Selected one spot after Jackson, Wheeler saw his draft stock slowly rise as he played out his final season.  It didn’t hurt that Tim Wheeler was willing to sign for 900K, either.

In the Northwest League, Wheeler played well enough for Baseball America to place him a couple slots below Jackson on their yearly round-up of the Short Season Leagues.

If Wheeler had slipped into the second round, beyond the prying eyes of the common-prospector, his cards might be a very solid investment piece.

As it stands, Wheeler is just an athletically gifted kid that’s worth keeping an eye on.  Everything’s there for Wheeler to develop into an above-average, everyday, outfielder for the Rockies.

There’s quite a bit of untapped power in his frame and the kid can run well.   Wheeler’s final season at Sacramento State really opened some eyes, but you’ve got to take it with a grain of salt.  Ignorant eyes will view his 1.200 OPS in the WAC as something to bust a nut over — Don’t get *too* excited.

Wheeler’s got potential though.  Better yet, Wheeler has the tools and the make-up to get a strong following.  He’s definitely capable of putting up the jaw-dropping power & speed numbers required to make it into hot-lists, and thus raise his value considerably.

As long as his prices don’t go crazy out of the gate, I’d recommend purchasing a few medium numbered refractors.

BDPP76, Tony Sanchez of the Pittsburgh Pirates, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Sell

Projected Value: Medium

Sanchez is an interesting prospect, but there are a couple of things working against the value of his cards in the long-term.

First off, Sanchez looks to be staying put in Pittsburgh for the foreseeable future.  New Pirates General Manager, Neal Huntington, seems to be on the right track to building a mid-market franchise with budget constraints.  Huntington probably won’t be around to see the majority of his maneuvers come to fruition, but the groundwork has been laid.

The move to draft Sanchez with the fourth overall pick in the 2009 MLB Draft was a bit questionable, but you have to admire a GM that puts his faith into the hands of the Scouting Director and takes a leap of faith.

Unfortunately, Sanchez’s early draft slot and high signing bonus will lead to an early overvaluation of his cards.

Sanchez has all of the tools to be an above average catcher in the big leagues, but his name shouldn’t be amongst the highlights of any checklist.  He had a terrific seasons in Low-A, where he showcased his potential.

Sanchez could make a claim for a promotion to Double-A early in the season.  He’s not afraid to take a walk, a skill that’s translated well from BC, and the power’s starting to come around.

You’re going to have issues making money of Sanchez, though.  People like to overpay for early first rounders and even if Sanchez hits the show before 2012, his cards will have a hard time standing up to fourth-overall selection prices.

This is going to be a headache, but with the economy down and the checklist looking a weak, I’m going to do the unthinkable:  I’m going to share not only detailed reports, but also project the market values and steals for this year’s Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects baseball cards.

For the majority of fantasy baseball players outside of the insanely deep leagues, this’ll probably be worthless evaluation.  For the card collectors that like to purchase a card for ten dollars and re-sell it for 50, this might be useful.

Here’s the Checklist (courtesy of CardboardConnection.com.)  It’s a preliminary checklist, but I’ll update it as new information becomes available.

Donruss Classics, now produced by Panini of America, is an interesting product that seemingly caters to everyone while simultaneously catering to no-one in particular.

Classics, obviously lives up to it’s name as it’s chalked full of NFL greats.  One of the first cards that I pulled from this bad-boy was a Y.A. Tittle and Steve Young dual jersey.    Collectors love this stuff, but the people that try and turn cards for a profit are far more interested in the rookies dawning their professional uniforms for the first time.  Classics has a sizable window within which they can dominate the pro-jersey market and eBay sales reflect this.

Unfortunately, in order to be the first product offering pro-uniform (sometime pro-practice-uniform) cards, Donruss has to rely almost solely on sticker autographs. Obviously, this doesn’t become a problem until Topps’ releases their Rookie Premiere cards.

Unlike previous years, the School Colors subset doesn’t rely on stickers but rather provides college-pennant style cards with hard-signed silver paint pen autographs.  The issues with a paint pen are plentiful — it’ll chip, it’ll bubble, it’ll fade — but when the pen achieves an even flow, the cards look terrific.  These cards don’t measure up against the paint-pen autographs on UD Black, but they hold they’re own and better still, they’re affordable.

This is why I’ll attempt to collect the entire subset at a reasonable price.  In addition to the basics, I’ll throw together a relatively quick scouting report on the kids.  The plan is to get this set done before the season starts, all while spending less than 25 dollars per card.  Matthew Stafford, Mark Sanchez, Michael Crabtree and Knowshon Moreno are going to be tough, but I’m willing to bend the rules a little bit.

Percy Harvin

Acquired: eBay Auction

Price: 25 Dollars

Harvin was one player that I couldn’t place in this year’s NFL draft.  His talents are legendary and his skill-set is unquestionably among the best in the league.

Unfortunately, there really wasn’t really a position that you could slot Harvin into as your opening day starter (other than pot-smoker extraordinaire). Harvin’s about 5’11 on a good day, and carries 190-200lbs well.  Harvin’s not small, but he can’t carry the weight of an every down back, nor does he have the height to be that go-to guy in the passing offense.

Any team drafting for need had to pass on Percy Harvin, or so I’d thought.  Harvin eventually found his way to Minnesota which should, by all accounts, be a terrific fit.  With a solid foundation in place, Harvin shouldn’t be called upon to occupy any one position on a down-to-down basis (this doesn’t mean Minnesota made the right selection, they did have needs that required filling).

Harvin should start out in the slot, but while Adrian Peterson’s safely entrenched at RB, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Harvin steal snaps from 3rd-down back Chester Taylor.

Harvin’s extremely rare combination of upper body strength and speed should pose match-up problems across the board.  Harvin has the agility and strength to beat the press, but technique is going to be an entirely different story.  Harvin should be able to take anyone off the ball, but how he reacts to being bumped, and shifted into different zones will determine his future in the league.   Finding the sweet-spots in the zones is going to take time, but Vikings fans should be confident that he’ll develop.

With Favre under center, Vikings fans are looking at this year as the year, though.  Harvin’s production this year will depend solely on the creativity of the coaching staff.  If they can get him into space, he’ll succeed.  It’s going to be difficult for a contender to stray too far away from what’s been successful, but not drawing up 5 or 6 plays for Harvin would also be a huge mistake.

Matthew Stafford School Colors

Matthew Stafford

Acquired:  Pack Pulled

Price:  N/A, I guess.

The Lions took Stafford with the first overall pick and signed him to a 6YR/78M dollar contract with an NFL-Record 41 Million in guaranteed money.

Georgia was a huge disappointment in 2008, after being ranked the pre-season number one by SI.com.  Both Stafford and Knowshon Moreno did nothing to lower their draft stock,  but the team imploded.

Things fell apart after the painful loss to ‘Bama, and you could see the life sucked out of this squad.  If only the Georgia players understood the importance of the World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party even with one loss,  maybe they’d be National Champs. Instead, Florida trounced them and eventually went on to trounce just about everybody else.

Georgia went on to lose to GT in one of the better games of the 2008 season.  Watching a power-house school being torn apart by the perfect triple-option is one of the more beautiful things you’ll ever see (unless you’re a UGA fan, I guess).

Tidbits:

Stafford has a cannon arm, but so did Ryan Leaf.  If the Lions can put Matthew Stafford in a position to win, he’ll prosper.  The Lions began drafting properly and have put together three consecutive solid drafts:  Calvin Johnson in 2007,  LT Gosder Cherilus and RB Kevin Smith in 2008 and then Stafford, TE Brandon Pettigrew and WR Derrick Williams in 2009.  I fundamentally agree with drafting the talent required for a QB to thrive prior to drafting your franchise quarterback.

Stafford isn’t Matt Ryan by any stretch of the imagination.  However, Stafford has more physical tools than Matt Ryan, so you could say that his ceiling is higher, but Stafford has nowhere near the field presense or football IQ that Ryan brought to the Falcons.

I’ll give Panini this, Playoff Prestige is the sharpest looking of all the NFL Draft products.  I’m a sucker for white and grey on cards, and it’s made of quality card stock.  The design itself is head and shoulders above 2009 Bowman Draft Picks, and leap-years ahead of Upper Deck Draft.  Unfortunately, the design is literally the only good thing Donruss / Panani has going in this product.  A Hobby Box of 2009 Playoff Prestige was marked down 30% after being on the market for a two weeks — I get the feeling the local hobby shop (401games.ca) didn’t sell a single box of this horse-shit.

So, I’ll pause to show you some scans of the checklist and while browsing ask yourself the top five things that make for a terrible sports card — because odds are, Panini did ‘em.

Playoff Prestige Checklist

Playoff Prestige Checklist

1. I Hate Sticker Autographs

Limas Sweed

With Bowman DP and UD Draft switching to on-card autographs to keep collectors happy, good ol’ Panini does it up the way you’ve grown to hate: Sticker Autographs.  Of course there’s some autographed draft patches buried in some of the boxes, but they’re not selling any better or worse than the Bowman manufactured patches.  Recycling sticker autographs is just too lucrative for Panani to resist, so I’m sure the autograph on my brand-spankin’ new Limas Sweed card was more than likely signed for last years version of this set.  By the way, the whole draft-recap autograph is generally pretty neat, but to throw in a player that was drafted last year and barely saw a snap is pretty lame.

2. I Hate Poor Collation

Generally, this is the biggest screw-you that a company can give a loyal customer, and Panini does it to perfection.  In a hobby box of 2009 Playoff Prestige, you get 24 packs of 8 cards.  It’s not like the cards are actually collated poorly, but rather poor collation is built into the product.  Purchasing a Hobby Box will net you the entire Veteran set of cards 1-to-100, which is cool enough. However, each box yields 150 veterans– That’s right, I managed to pull 50 duplicates of just the veteran set.  That’s 1 duplicate for each 2 veterans pulled.  That’s the equivalent of SIX FULL PACKS, in a 24 pack box, of nothing but duplicates of the base-set. One-Quarter of the Cards pulled were duplicates…ONE-Fucking-Quarter. This is acceptable if Playoff Prestige is more of a set of hits, unfortunately…

3. I Hate When The Hits Really Suck

You’re guarenteed 4 autographs or game-used cards in the entire box, which I naively assumed would contain one patch autograph.  Unfortunately, I got stuck with these beauties:

Single Colour White Jersey Of Wayne and Jackson

More Plain White Jersey, Exciting!

Now, there are some good autographs out there, but I doubt I’ll see them even if I splurged and bought another box of this shit-on-a-stick. You’ve already seen the boring Limas Sweed autograph, and I’ll get to the other Autograph later…

4.  I Hate Cards Numbered To Anything More Than 100? 200? 500?

You think you got something specialed in that numbered parallel?  Oh…

Ohhh, Exciting!

5. More Than Anything, I Hate Feeling Like I’ve Been Ripped Off…

This product’s about the Rookie Card, as are most of the football cards coming out around this time of the year.  Unfortunately, while I received 50 duplicates of the Veterans Base Set, I only received 27 different Rookie Cards, in a set of 100.  Pretty Much one-quarter of the rookie set, which means we’re looking at 4 boxes, and 6 completed veteran sets to finish-up the Rookie Set?  Oh, you’re telling  me Panini short-printed some rookie cards?  Seriously guys, fuck off.

Furthermore, it would have been nice to receive more than 5 first round draft picks! and 4 Second Round Draft Picks! I follow college and pro football, and know most of the players but this is a serious fuck you — a giant fuck you.

My first round draft picks were, Jason Smith, Percy Harvin, Michael Oher, Josh Freeman, and Kenny Britt. Ladies and Gentlemen, this is how you fist-fuck the consumer.  There’s lots of 4th Round Picks in the Box, and a painful amount of 7th Round Picks and Undrafted Free Agents.

Continuing with the lack of rookies, is the lone Rookie Autograph that the box yielded.  Third Round Draft Pick — Jared Cook.

Jared Cook Sticker Auto

Final Thoughts & Photos:

These cards look awesome, but that’s it.  Maybe if I pulled a Mark Sanchez autograph patch I’d be excited, but I doubt it.  There’s a good possibility that I could buy another box of this shit, and still not get the Crabtree Rookie Card, the BASE card, that I was looking for…

The cards look great though, and if you care to check out the various inserts I’ve included a wad of cards here:

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Topps Series 2 Baseball Review:

Here we go again, with some brand spankin’ new cards — Topps Series 2 Baseball. Going into this review, I’m expecting typical Topps photography which is almost always put to shame by Upper Deck and their love of Getty Images.  It’ll be fairly interesting to see who the rookies are, as we’re bound to see them in future Topps’ baseball sets.

Packs:

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It’s unbelievably nice to not see A-Rod or Manny hucked all over these packages.  Now onto the hits…

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Wow, there’s some serious beef-age going on with these.  First off, there’s something wrong when you’re pulling the same two mediocre second basemen in both Topps Finest and Topps Series 2.  I’ve got nothing against Robbie Cano and Aki Iwamura, but this is why people hate sticker autographs.  Obviously, there’s no difference between the autograph on the FINEST MOMENTS and the autograph on the Series 2 card other than a massive difference in price.  I guess this isn’t really a problem with Series 2 so much as it is a problem with Topps Finest…

I’m not a fan of the Manufactured Patches, so if anyone wants to trade for the M in Mr. October, shoot me an email.  The WBC game used is pretty neat, and I’m sure Topps agreed to sponser the Cuban Cepeda for a green-card if he agreed to donate his WBC uniforms…

Now onto my favourite parts of the set (my scanner decided to cut off chunks when scanning multiple images):

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The Turkey Red Inserts actually look better, they’re quite well done.  The older players are actually the best of the bunch this side of the Pedroia Turkey Red.

Young, Campy, and Ty Cobb are all done pretty nicely in the Turkey Red Fashion. However, I think my favourite part is the Career Best Legends with Cy Young, Honus Wagner and Christy Mathewson — I’m not sure if these were included in Series 1, but I definitely didn’t pull any of them.  I’d like them better if they were all mono-chromatic, but I can live with a bit of colour.

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The WBC redemptions are harmless enough, and they actually look pretty solid given the colour scheme they have to work with.  While I’m not a huge fan of the short-printed variations, I did manage to pull a Frank Robinson to go with my Christy Mathewson from Series 1.

The Topps Town codes look pretty solid, and I enjoy the blue over the silver from Series 1.  It’s also an incredibly awesome idea to use different pictures for the different parallels — good on yah, Topps!  There’s also the Red Hot Rookie redemptions, and I’m praying that I can nab someone solid…..like Matt Wieters maybe?!?!

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Topps has it’s standard gold and black parallels numbered to /2009 and /58 and they’re both fairly boring, but some people love them.  What I’m digging in the photos on these inserts.  From Jim Palmer’s GIGANTIC, BEAUTIFUL head of hair that’s only rivaled by Travis Buck to Dusty Baker’s equally gigantic Chest-To-Waist Ratio.  Baker has the tiniest little girly waist combined with a Barry Bonds-esque upper-body.  Most of the inserts in Series 2 seem to be of newer events, particularly the Ring of Honor Inserts.

I recently picked up Joe Torre and Tom Verducci’s account of his The Yankee Years and I’ve yet to crack it, but I’ve posted his Ring of Honor card anyways.

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Lots of solid rookies in this set, even if Matt Wieters and Tommy Hunter will end up being Red Hot Rookie Redemptions.  Seeing Brett Anderson and Trevor Cahill in the set is nice, although I wouldn’t be surprised to see the majority of these guys get sent down at least one more time.  Rick Porcello’s probably got the most hype of the bunch and the inclusion of Ricky Romero of the Jays was a nice bonus.  I’m not a huge Romero fan, even being a Jays’ season ticket holder, but the kid has put it together thus far.  Hopefully he’ll return from his oblique injury shortly.

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Finally, we’ll deal with some of the ‘more interesting’ photographs on Topps Series 2 cards.  There’s some really nice shots, but there are also a lot of photos where it’s clear they tried to make a tiny little photo the size of a card.  This leaves the photo looking like crap, and filled with photographic artifacts everywhere…

The Estaban German photo is awful, but the Shaun Marcum photo more than makes up for it (what gunzzzz!)  The Luke Scott Card is ridiculous, and a little too sexual for my taste.

I’m loving almost all of the catcher photos in Series 2, and the Jeff Clement and Ramon Hernandez close ups are the best in the set.  Finally, the cheeky Soriano and unique Nelson Cruz photo are two lovely additions.

In the end, Topps still is out-down by Upper Deck in the photography department but they’re getting better.  Forgetting to remove the white background to Mike Aviles Rookie Cup is really annoying, but I’ll live.  A lot of the Topps photos are washed out, and someone seriously needs to show them how to re-adjust the contrast on their photos.  Topps generally takes every possible category in the baseball card flag-ship wars, except photography.

I’m somewhat upset that I didn’t manage to pull a Sketch Card, as they were far and away my favourite insert of Series 1.  I was lucky enough to interview two of my favourite Sketch Card artists from Series 1.  If not for a broken computer, the interviews would be front-page news here.  It’ll probably take a bit for me to retype the entire thing, but thankfully the original notes were saved in my email so expect them shortly.

Topps undoubtedly hit a home-run with their 2009 edition of Finest. The cards are incredibly well-designed and the Finest Moments autographed sub-set contains a slew of superstars.

Alex Rodriguez, David Wright, Jose Reyes, Ryan Howard and Jim Thome all have an assortment of finest autographs ranging from the one-of-one white xfractor to the basic plain white finest moments auto. The price tag on the product is higher than expected, but the product’s performing fairly well on the secondary market.

300 Dollars for a Red #/25 Joba!

The only issue with 2009′s Finest product is of course, the autographed manufactured rookie-card patches.  2009′s rookie class, while not amazing, holds it own with David Price, Travis Snider, Mat Gamel, Matt Antonelli, Gaby Sanchez, Greg Golson, Will Venable, Jonathan Niese, Bobby Parnell, Angel Solome, Michael Bowden, Kila Ka’aihue, Dexter Fowler and Conor Gillaspie.

Each autographed patch is available in a Xfractor #/1, Red #/5, Gold #/10, Blue #/25, Plain Refractor #/75 and finally a base #/250-80ish. Herein lies the problem, for players like Mat GAMEL or David PRICE there will be 5 different white Xfractors, each numbered one of one — cool.

But what about Gillaspie, Ka’aihue, Solome, Parnell, Antonelli, Golson, Niese, and Venable?

Hrm, Only 5 A's Made?

Remembering that these are manufactured patches, I challenge you, and Topps for that matter, to explain to me the difference between the Xfractors in Conor Gillaspie’s last name.

With each patch numbered 1/1, is it possible that the only difference between the two letter Ls and two letter Is in GILLASPIE, is Topps’ word that, “oh, this one of one is for the first I, and this one is for the second I.”

I have a terrible feeling that there are multiple 1-of-1′s of the exact same card out there.  They were undoubtedly assembled in sequence and inserted into the same one-of-one x-fractor casing.

This is why so many people hate the manufactured patches.  If this were a game used patch, Topps would have no problem explaining why there are two 1-of-1′s that are literally the exact same card.  However, as they’re merely manufactured patches, all letters are created equal.

This means your two RED numbered-to-five autographed Matt Antonelli letters N and L, really aren’t out of five after all.  There are ten L’s floating around and ten N’s too.  While it’s easier for the collectors who put together complete names, I prefer my one-of-one’s and low-numbered autos to actually be as scarce as advertised.

If the cards were signed after completion, I’m sure Topps asked the athletes to sign differently on the alternate sets of the same letter. If the Rookies merely signed letters and the cards were assembled afterwards — this is blasphemy.

In the end, maybe I’m overreacting and I probably am, but to claim that the 20 GOLD Letter-N’s in Antonelli are rather 2 sets of 10, seems out-there. I pray that there is a noticeable difference somewhere on these cards, but I get the feeling that the only difference between the duplicate letters is Topps’ promise that they represent different letters in his name.

This is why collectors hate collecting letters of the alphabet, especially when they’re supposed to be scarce. I understand WHY the Topps company did it, but to pay an absurd amount of money for a one-of-one and to realize that someone else has the EXACT same card — well, I’d imagine that’d be preeeetty upsetting.

Lyle Overbay BobbleHead Mistake! You should buy him / contribute to a brand new fund I call the "buy me a new computer fund -- it's at 0 dollars." Email: info@freefantasymagazine.com

I apologize to anyone expecting fantasy write-ups, life’s been hectic.  The Jays are back in town, and gosh darn do I love those Athletics.

First off, the Lyle Overbay Bobblehead is the powder-blue FLASHBACK FRIDAY variety.  I don’t know how much value these things but they put the wrong uniform number on him.  On the bobble-head he’s number 17, but he actually wears number 35.

Overbay wore 35 back in the day, way back in the day, 2006 back in the day.  Then Frank Thomas showed up, and kindly asked for 35 and Overbay obliged.  Overbay wore 17 during 2007 and 2008 while Frank The Tank was around.  Brad Wilkerson scooped it up after Thomas left, but I’m sure Overbay just didn’t feel like switching mid-season.

Anyways, 2009 Bobblehead of Lyle Overbay wearing his 2008 number.  Who knows if these things are worth anything but only 10,000 were given away (and I scored two, cause i’m a selfish prick)

In other news, I started sketching out a picture in charcoal a week or so ago, and just never got around to painting it.   I’m lazy and have an attention span of about a week  before I get completely bored.  Anyways, it was Brett Anderson, Travor Cahill and Josh Outman — The three amazing talents from Oakland.

I’ve never managed to get multiple athletes sign one sketch, it’s the biggest pain in the ass ever.  Anyways, here’s a quick-see of Brett Anderson, Trevor Cahill and Josh Outman’s autograph.

Anderson, Cahill, Outman, autographs.

I had a lot of fun sketch this out when I thought I was just going to paint over it, then gave up and colored in the athletics logo and called it a day.

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