2009 Fantasy Sleepers

Andy LaRoche – Third Base (3B) – Pittsburgh Pirates

Whether or not this is the hype-machine or the post-hype machine is up for debate. The Manny Ramirez / Jason Bay trade brought Andy LaRoche along with Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen, and Brandon Moss to the Pirates.

LaRoche was once a top-tier prospect, a can’t miss prospect.  Almost every publication had LaRoche in their top-10 position players, if not overall.

Yet LaRoche is proving to be a AAAA player, and his stock has plummeted. Is Adam LaRoche worth the risk after batting a paltry .177 last year between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh.

Here come the stats:

Year	Team	G	AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2006	AA	62	230	9	42	46	6	0.309	15.10%	13.90%	0.419	0.483	0.901	0.174	0.328
2006	AAA	55	202	10	35	35	3	0.322	11.00%	15.80%	0.4	0.55	0.95	0.228	0.344
2007	AAA	73	265	18	55	48	2	0.309	12.80%	15.80%	0.399	0.589	0.987	0.279	0.312
2007	LAD	35	93	1	16	10	2	0.226	17.70%	25.80%	0.365	0.312	0.677	0.086	0.294
2008	AA	6	22	0	5	1	1	0.318	12.00%	27.30%	0.4	0.364	0.764	0.045	0.438
2008	AAA	39	123	5	35	28	2	0.293	23.10%	11.40%	0.452	0.439	0.891	0.146	0.298
2008	LAD.PIT	76	223	5	17	18	2	0.166	9.70%	16.60%	0.252	0.256	0.508	0.09	0.177

When you look at LaRoche’s minor league numbers you see a future All-Star, then he goes up to the big leagues and gets eaten alive which ends up effecting him negatively upon his return to the minors.

There’s no way to explain this other than LaRoche has been relying solely on his athletic ability, and using it to make up for  mistakes.  LaRoche is the type of player that can guess fastball, get a curve, react and drive the pitch.

When you get to the big leagues, this type of approach doesn’t work. Looking at LaRoche’s K% and BB% tells the story, and the easiest explanation seems to be a poor approach.

The first trip up to the big club in LA brought with it an increase in K% and BB%, which screams of a player emotionally overwhelmed by the switch. When LaRoche realized that hacking wasn’t the way to go, he started taking pitches.

In the 2008 Triple-A season, LaRoche did everything you’d expect a player to do after starting the year in the Minors.  He decased that 25 percent strike-out rate and increased his walk rate to a nutty 23% which lead to a .452 OBP.  Some may view this as a great thing but when a hitter loses his aggressiveness, he tends to fall apart when pressed.

His .439 SLG percentage was nowhere close to his previous Triple-A mark of .550 and .589.  LaRoche was a broken man, a patient broken man.  Rarely will I fault a hitter for being patient, but in LaRoche’s case his patience flew out the window when he was called up again.

What gives me the slightest bit of hope, is that an approach can be changed with work and time.  LaRoche doesn’t appear to be have a hole in his swing and the only thing that stands out is his stupid-silly ground ball rate.

There’s no reason why LaRoche wouldn’t have put in the work this off-season, and the only problem here is time.

Pittsburgh acquired former ROY Eric Hinske, who can play third in a pinch this off-season and waiting in the wings is Pedro Alvarez.  Pedro Alvarez is one hell of a prospect, and Keith Law has him third behind Vitters and Brett Wallace.

With the way Alvarez smashed NCAA pitching over the course of three years, I’d be surprised if he didn’t follow the Evan Longoria path to excellence. There’s no particular reason other than financial that Alvarez wouldn’t get a shot at a September Call-Up.  I really can’t see Alvarez in the minors for more than a year, year and a half.

So, LaRoche’s got a year to prove himself.  I think he gets it done.

Verdict: Feed the post-hype? machine.  You really shouldn’t have to invest that much into LaRoche, and he’s definitely worth the gamble.  His ceiling is limited by the offense he plays in, but playing with his brother should help ease the burden of being a top-prospect.

Photo Courtesy of Matt Bandi Flickr

2009 Fantasy Sleepers

Brandon Morrow – Starting Pitcher (SP) – Seattle Mariners

The hype-machine has decided to travel back in time and examine the 2006 draft, searching for a terrific pitcher.

Is it 11th  overall selection Max Scherzer? Nope.

Is it 10th overall selection Tim Lincecum? Nope. Keep Going!

Is it Clayton Kershaw, drafted 7th overall? Nope. Further, my friend. Further and Higher.

What about Andrew Miller, Drafted 6th overall? Nope, higher still.

Oh, You must be searching for the 5th overall draft pick. The flame thrower from UC Berkeley, Brandon Morrow.  Yup, that’s it.

Morrow’s name has been plastered all over “Sleepers  for 2009″ sections, in all of the major magazines and websites. I’m guessing this has something to do with his 95.5 MPH fastball

Let’s take a little bit of a look at this flame thrower, and his limited relief statistics so far:

Year	Team	W	L	ERA	G	GS	CG	SHO	SV	SVO	INN	H	R	ER	HR	HBP	BB	SO
2007	SEA	3	4	4.12	60	0	0	0	0	2	63.1	56	29	29	3	1	50	66
2008	SEA	3	4	3.34	45	5	0	0	10	12	64.2	40	26	24	10	0	34	75
Total		6	8	3.73	105	5	0	0	10	14	128.0	96	55	53	13	1	84	141

What Jumps out? Well, his K to BB ratio is not even 2.  This is a problem.

A quick look for pitchers that have a K:BB ratio of 2 and lower, reveals:

1. Jair Jurrgens posted a (1.99 K:BB)
2. Ubaldo Jiminez ( 1.67 K:BB)
3. Mike Pelfrey (1.72 K:BB)
4. Dice-K (1.64)
5. Dana Eveland (1.53)
6. Manny Parra (1.96)
7. Carlos Zambrano (1.81)
8. Ian Snell (1.52)
9. Oliver Perez (1.71)

You get the point.  It’s going to be tough for Morrow to be anywhere near as dominant as experts project unless he can drastically lower his walk rate. His 10.44 strike outs per nine is nice to look at, but as long as its accompanied by a 4.73 BB / 9 rate — he’s in trouble.

Morrow’s ERA Prior to becoming a starter 1.47 ERA over 36.2 IP

Morrow’s ERA  After becoming a starter in September, where he pitched 5 games, 3.34 ERA over 64.2 IP.

This is quite the jump.

Lets look at the projection systems: Bill James has him posting 10.04K:9, and a 5.70 BB:9. CHONE has him at 10.5 K per 9, and 5.05 BB per 9.

Bill James’ maths translate these numbers into 140 Innings Pitched, an 8-8 record, and a 3.84 ERA to go along with a 1.43 WHIP. This is not pretty.

Obviously, with the switch to the Starting Pitcher Role, you’d expect Morrow’s WHIP to rise from his 1.20 in 2007, and 1.14 in 2008.  How far you think it’ll go up, is really up to interpretation.

Morrow’s spent a season working with Pitching God, Mel Stottlemyre.  If there’s anything that’ll change a flame-throwing kid for the positive, it’s Mel.

Now, with that said.  There’s a few questions you should ask yourself before drafting Brandon Morrow.

1. Do you think he’ll pitch the entire year? 140 IP seems reasonable, 200 Seems possible.
2. If he does pitch the entire year, what are the odds he fatigues and sucks it up around the end of the season.  If you have an active league where you can trade Brandon Morrow after the All-Star break — then there’s a good amount of value here.  If you’re in a league where no one trades because everyone always needs to get the best of the trade — buyer beware.
3. Will he add a pitch? Right now Morrow is sitting on a blistering fastball, a good slider, and a splitter that tends to mimmick the slider pretty closely.  He has nothing that’ll tail from lefties.  If Morrow can get his change working, or pick up a decent curve he’ll be set.  Right Now, I tend to think he’s better served in a late rotation or bullpen role.

All and All, just keep an eye on Morrow.  If he’s looking good, and reports are good  — then he’s worth the risk with a K:9 above 10.

The Verdict: The Machine likes flame-throwers but it can find plenty of them floating around. Don’t overpay for Morrow based on the appearance of a pitcher with a sub-1.20 WHIP.  Understand you’re getting a High-K, High-BB guy with the potential of experiencing dead arm syndrome.  You’re getting more Ubaldo Jiminez (not a bad thing) than Joba Chamberlain.

Photo Courtesy of MarkSobba Flickr