2009 Fantasy Baseball

Is Big Fat Brad Penny Worth Rostering?

Is Brad Penny Worth Rostering For a Full Season? …Hell No!

Is Brad Penny worth rostering for part of a season? Maybe, Let’s find out…

If you’ve been playing fantasy baseball for more than a year, you know the story behind Brad Penny.

Penny is serviceable before the All-Star break, but downright awful after it.  We’ll give Penny a freebie for his injury plagued 2008 season, but here goes:

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After excusing 2008′s woopsie moments, we have a pretty solid pitcher.  Early in Penny’s career, he was equally as dominant after the All-Star break  and often better.  This is why Penny’s career splits aren’t quite what you’d expect.  Penny’s no longer that pitcher, so focusing on the recent past is the most beneficial.

Looking at Penny’s first half splits, who wouldn’t want a pitcher that posts a sub-4.00 ERA to go with a WHIP of 1.20?

Whether or not Penny can maintain those numbers is up for debate however.  Penny has only ever pitched in two of the better pitches parks in the MLB: Florida and Los Angeles.

However, Penny also posted a better ERA and WHIP on the ROAD in both 2007 and 2006. Without digging too deep, this is almost certainly a result of pitching in the NL West.  In addition to the Dodgers’ home park, San Diego and San Francisco are also two of the pitcher-friendliest parks in the league.

You should expect somewhat of an increase in Penny’s ERA switching  from the NL West to the AL East. In addition to more hitter-friendly parks and better hitters, Penny will also now be facing a DH.

Luckily, most of the hitters haven’t seen Penny yet, which should give him some leeway early in the season; which is when we’ll be rostering him.

Now, the only question is whether or not Brad Penny is the same pitcher after last year’s nagging injury induced shoulder pain.

In 2008, Penny’s average fastball speed dipped more than 1mph to 92.4mph rendering Penny less than effective.

Penny’s effective when he’s averaging 93-94mph and hitting 95-96mph.

Let’s take a look at Penny’s start against Anaheim, which he’s allowed 3 Runs in 6 Innings work, thus far.

Penny’s average fastball is coming in at 92.5mph — uh, oh.

Digging deeper we find that Penny started out throwing 88-89mph to Figgins in the first, and slowly started to amp up his speed.  By the second inning, he was hitting 94mph against T. Hunter, 93mph against Morales, and 95mph against Juan Rivera.

By the third inning, Penny was consistently hitting 93-95mph, which is where he needs to be.

Penny maintained this speed well into the game, and was still hitting 94-95mph well into the 6th inning.

Penny’s final line on the day: 6IP, 3ER, 2K, 2BB, 5H, 2HR — which isn’t all that bad considering he was held for most of Spring Training.

Penny’s next three starts are: vs. BALTIMORE, vs. MINNESOTA, @CLEVELAND.

I can’t completely recommend Penny until reports come out about how his shoulder feels tomorrow, but if 6IP and 3ER is rosterable in your league, then Penny’s worth an add.

Obviously, this is probably all for not because some Red Sox homer undoubtedly already owns Penny.

If you’re in a league that values performance over name-recognition though, Penny’s probably sitting on your waiver-wire and you should think about Rent-A-Penny for the next month or two.

If you do pick up Penny, be sure to keep an eye out for injury reports and his velocity (which you can follow on MLB gameday)

One final caveat about Brad Penny: There are almost certainly better options on your waiver-wire, so think before you grab Brad Penny.

Photo Courtesy of Malingering . Flickr

2009 Fantasy Baseball

Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?

I have this uncontrollable fixation with statistics that some may refer to as obsessive compulsive disorder, but others may deem awesome and totally understandable. My better half thankfully just writes it off as shit she’ll never be able to change.  I check the logs of this site fairly often, and while this site is still in it’s infancy, it pulls in enough search engine traffic to keep me busy.

Today, someone asked google the question: “Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?”

Apparently, you’re directed here for the answer after obvious stops at thebaseballcube.com and crookedpitch.com.

So Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?

First off, Loney is coming off the board at around the 165th pick and the 16th first baseman (according to ESPN Live Draft ADP.)

I think we can all agree that Loney’s not touching the top-8 this year:  Pujols, Cabrera, Texiera, Howard, Berkman, Fielder, Morneau, Gonzalez.

Then begins the mish-mash of first basemen, lead by none other than Loney’s best career path: Derrek Lee.  This next group consists of Lee, Pena, Votto, Delgado, Jackson, LaRoche, Sandoval.  Looking at this group of hitters, the obvious answer to why Loney’s ranking so low is his lack of power.  Let’s break it down though, starting with Loney himself:

2008 Loney: 66 RUN / 13 HR / 90 RBI / .289 AVG / 7 SB

Batting Order: Loney could bat 4th, 5th, or 6th.  The Dodgers lost the dead weight of Kent, and Andruw Jones while bringing in Orlando Hudson. Loney will now have a full season of Manny, Furcal and Blake, as well.

The line-up is improved from front to back, and the important part is that while Loney had a worse second half, his counting stats actually increased.  Worse Batting Average, On-Base-Percentage, and Slugging Percentage somehow meant more RBI and more HR.  The runs weren’t there, which is the one thing that we should have expected.

You should expect an increase in RBI and R in this line-up, which starts to push Loney awfully close to the 100RBI mark.

Power: Loney will eventually come in with 25-HR power, the question is when.  In 2007, Loney didn’t even get to 400AB and managed to hit 15 HR.  In 2008, Loney hit 13 HR all year! in 600AB!

His isolated power dropped, his slugging percentage dropped, and his on-base percentage dropped.  Every stat you could possibly imagine dropped from 2007 to 2008.

I am however a firm believer in the motto: “Once you show something, you own it”.  Loney showed he had 20-25HR power in his rookie year, and now he owns it.  It’ll be at least 2 or 3 seasons before I strip him of that tag.

In addition to the increase in Runs and RBI, I’d expect 20 HR out of the big fella.

Contact: Loney’s a legitimate .300 hitter, and shouldn’t have to sacrafice his average to hit more dingers.  He wont post the ridiculous .330 again, unless he starts gettin’ real lucky.

Loney’s Line: 75R/19-20HR/95RBI/.300AVG/7SB

Loney vs. Sandoval

Have you seen Pablo Sandoval’s BABIP over the past couple years?  Look at him, he’s not someone who posts .387 (A+), .347 (AA), .367 (MLB) BABIPs at each level in 2008. While Sandoval is a very popular sleeper, he doesn’t walk and slugging .500 again is asking a lot.  Loney’s in a better line-up with more RBI opportunities.

Loney vs. LaRoche

It seems like LaRoche should be hitting more Home Runs, right?  He’s only pegged for somewhere in the neighbourhood of 25HR on the year.  You’re taking Loney even if you think he only hits 15 HR.  Loney’s batting average should be at least .290 to LaRoche’s .270, and he’ll post noticeably better R and RBI totals.  While you can’t bank on Loney running wild, you’re also probably getting at least 5 or 6 more stolen bases out of him.  Even a .20pt average, 5 runs, 5 Rbi, 5 SB make up for the difference in 6 or 7 HR.  These are also also very conservative estimates of Loney.

Loney vs. Jackson

They’ll both hit between 15-20HR and they’ll both hit around .300.  Looking at Jackson’s 10 stolen bases compared to Loney’s 7 SB, is probably a wash so it comes down to R and RBI.  Jackson hasn’t proven he’s a run producer, and I tend to think that Loney’s RBI+RUN will best whatever Jackson can put up.

These two you can compare probably the easiest of the bunch, as they’re essentially the same type of player. The Diamondbacks have a capable replacement to steal at-bats in Chad Tracy; assuming Eric Byrnes eventually wiggles his way back into the line-up.  The only thing Jackson has going for him is his multi-position eligibility.

Loney vs. Delgado

Finally we’re getting to the tough comparisons.  Delgado is going to knock out 30HR, and hits in a very solid line-up. He’ll occupy a better spot in the line-up as well.  So we’re looking at at least 2, with a very good shot at 3, categories Delgado will take Loney in.

However, Delgado is going to hit about .260 to .270, and won’t steal a base.

Even if you consider Loney dominating those two cataegories, it’s still a fairly close race.  Then you take into account Delgado is getting very old, and very close to the point where great ball players just fall off the edge.

Loney vs. Votto

This is where the Loney fun stops.  I can’t under any circumstances place Loney ahead of Joey Votto.  Loney’s speed is negated, Loney’s average is negated and Loney’s age is negated.  Both are young, and Votto plays in a better park which makes up for the slightly worse line-up.

Loney vs. Pena

Pena hit .247 last year with 31HR. Depending on your league, that average starts getting to the point where it’s *too* low for a paltry 30 HR.  The line-ups are fairly similar, and Pena strikes out a tonne.  Pena also walks a good bit, which makes his average slightly less harmful.

Are 15 HR worth a .50 pt batting average dip, and the 7 or 8 steals Loney brings to the table? It really depends on your league.  If all goes well for Loney, this is a definite push.

Loney vs. Lee

This is the most interesting of the bunch.  If Loney continues to mature, he’ll post Derrek Lee’s 2008 season: 93R/20HR/90RBI/.291AVG/8SB

This is what owners thought Loney would do last year.

Lee’s on the downside of his career, and you should probably expect a decline in his SB numbers at the very least.  Loney on the other hand is just starting to enter his prime.

Loney vs. The Conclusion

After looking through this, Joey Votto is realistically the only player I couldn’t go into a draft saying would be outperformed by James Loney.

All of the other guys on this list, could potentially and quite easily, be outperformed by Loney.  Loney’s just starting to come into his prime, as he’ll turn 25 about halfway through the season.  He’s still got a lot of maturing to endure, but he could put up very solid numbers this year.

So Why Is Loney Ranked So Low? People become fixated with his run total, and lack of power from the first base position.  Loney will improve upon his 66 Runs scored, even if he doesn’t mature as a player.  Maybe Matt Kemp Matures. Maybe Russell Martin becomes the best fantasy catcher out there. Andre Ethier could easily become a force this year.  Loney’s Run numbers should take care of themselves.

His power on the other hand is a different story.  You should be concerned that your first baseman may only hit 13 HR. Loney hasn’t shown true HR power at any point in his career, even in the minors.  He has shown power though, and he could potentially slug at a .500 clip again. Young players often display doubles power before they break out and start smash-killing the ball.

20 HR isn’t out of the question, and he could easily best that number.

I actually enjoyed this, and hopefully I’ll get some other googlized questions.

2009 Fantasy Baseball

Trading In Fantasy Baseball: When Losing is Winning

There’s one problem, one gigantic problem, that I experience every year in fantasy baseball.  I’m sure it plagues your league as well, and it’s awful.  You might just be guilty of it:

Refusing to “LOSE” a trade.  All but one guy loses the league every year, but no one wants  to lose a trade.  This is why the majority of leagues really don’t have that much action aside from the waiver-wire.

An Example: The stage is set for a monster trade, you need steals and he needs home-runs.  You have depth at first, and he has depth at short.  For simplicities sake, you have Albert Pujols and he has Hanley Ramirez.  No Injuries, nothing. It’s a perfect trade, that just doesn’t get done.

Why? Both owners are terrified that once they trade away their player, he’ll get hot and they’ll look like an idiot.

This is a problem in pretty much every league, and gets magnified when the conditions aren’t as perfect as mentioned above. Once you start throwing variables like age, injury risk, pitching/hitting, into the mix — the trade is bound to fail.

Solution: Lose the Trade.

First off, this only really applies to stubborn leagues.  Float some trades out there and if you can win the trade, go ahead and do so.  If after a couple of weeks you’re still plowing through details, go ahead and lose the trade. Everyone wants a grand-theft roto, so give it to ‘em.

Caveat 1: Only do this with teams that can’t beat you. Even if they’re ahead of you in the standings, give ‘em an honest look and figure out if they can realistically beat you over the rest of the season and into the playoffs.

Caveat 2: By losing the trade, you’re putting more value into the hands of your trading partner.  It’s generally best to lose a trade right at the trading deadline so he can’t go and peddle his new-found value off to another owner, an owner that CAN beat you.

If you’re trading before the Deadline, make sure he’s one stubborn son-of-a-bitch.  Make sure that once you give him this hidden value, that he’ll demand MORE value from anyone he trades with.  It’s easy to tell who the stubborn ones are as even the perfectly rational trades get shot-down.

So Why Am I Giving Up More Than I’m Getting?

Because you need it, or you want it. If you’ve managed to draft the perfectly balanced team, and pick up a few complimentary pieces from the waiver-wire, good on yah. Otherwise, you’re going to have some holes to fill.

Generally by the trading dead-line, you know where you stand in each of the categories. The plan is to trade away depth, and turn those 4-pointers into 7-pointers while only losing 1 point off your league leading 12-pts in HR. In Head to Head terms, win HR by 4 each week instead of 8 while giving yourself a 50/50 shot of winning the steals category.

Examine The Waiver Wire:

The best way to lose a trade, is to give up two players for one.  I’m not talking typical fantasy strategy where you trade two lesser players for a superstar. That’s probably not going to work unless you’re playing with idiots. What I’m saying is to trade a player of equal value, and then go ahead and toss in another player.

Eg. I’ll trade you Pujols for Ramirez, and I’ll throw in Player X.

Ideally, you’re going to want to have an immediate waiver-wire pick-up in mind when you throw in player X.  Obviously, Player X has to be “better” than the player the other team is dropping and presumably better than anyone he can find on the waiver wire.  When you lose a trade, you obviously want to lose it by as little as possible to still get the deal done.

What I’ve found, is that Player X doesn’t always have to be “better” than the players on the waiver wire Player X just has to be safer, or more consistant.  Sometimes you end up winning the trade because the high-risk player you snagged off the waiver-wire ends up panning out.  If he doesn’t, you wash, rinse, and repeat and just keep picking up filler until one pans out.

When to LOSE a trade?

The best times to lose a trade is at the trade deadline, as I mentioned earlier. This minimizes the risk of the fool you’re trading with from turning around and trading the value you gave up to your competition.

Another time, is right after the draft or as early in the season as possible.  You’re not going to get everyone you want in the draft, that’s a given.  After you examine your roster, it may make sense to trade someone you drafted in the 6th round for someone that was drafted in the late 7th round.

This has the added benefit of allowing you to snag an early waiver-wire gem to fill the void if you end up pulling a 2-for-1.

In the end, you’ll win some and you’ll lose some.  You can’t plan for injuries, and you definitely can’t plan for unexpected break-outs.

There’s a reason why the Green Packers traded Brett Favre to the New York Jets rather than the Minnesota Vikings.  Trading with people who you don’t play or “cant beat you” makes the most sense.  If you can be as  clever as the Packers and somehow work in a claus that limits your trading partner from trading Favre to the rival Vikings — You’re Golden.