1B

Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?

I have this uncontrollable fixation with statistics that some may refer to as obsessive compulsive disorder, but others may deem awesome and totally understandable. My better half thankfully just writes it off as shit she’ll never be able to change.  I check the logs of this site fairly often, and while this site is still in it’s infancy, it pulls in enough search engine traffic to keep me busy.

Today, someone asked google the question: “Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?”

Apparently, you’re directed here for the answer after obvious stops at thebaseballcube.com and crookedpitch.com.

So Why Is James Loney Ranked So Low?

First off, Loney is coming off the board at around the 165th pick and the 16th first baseman (according to ESPN Live Draft ADP.)

I think we can all agree that Loney’s not touching the top-8 this year:  Pujols, Cabrera, Texiera, Howard, Berkman, Fielder, Morneau, Gonzalez.

Then begins the mish-mash of first basemen, lead by none other than Loney’s best career path: Derrek Lee.  This next group consists of Lee, Pena, Votto, Delgado, Jackson, LaRoche, Sandoval.  Looking at this group of hitters, the obvious answer to why Loney’s ranking so low is his lack of power.  Let’s break it down though, starting with Loney himself:

2008 Loney: 66 RUN / 13 HR / 90 RBI / .289 AVG / 7 SB

Batting Order: Loney could bat 4th, 5th, or 6th.  The Dodgers lost the dead weight of Kent, and Andruw Jones while bringing in Orlando Hudson. Loney will now have a full season of Manny, Furcal and Blake, as well.

The line-up is improved from front to back, and the important part is that while Loney had a worse second half, his counting stats actually increased.  Worse Batting Average, On-Base-Percentage, and Slugging Percentage somehow meant more RBI and more HR.  The runs weren’t there, which is the one thing that we should have expected.

You should expect an increase in RBI and R in this line-up, which starts to push Loney awfully close to the 100RBI mark.

Power: Loney will eventually come in with 25-HR power, the question is when.  In 2007, Loney didn’t even get to 400AB and managed to hit 15 HR.  In 2008, Loney hit 13 HR all year! in 600AB!

His isolated power dropped, his slugging percentage dropped, and his on-base percentage dropped.  Every stat you could possibly imagine dropped from 2007 to 2008.

I am however a firm believer in the motto: “Once you show something, you own it”.  Loney showed he had 20-25HR power in his rookie year, and now he owns it.  It’ll be at least 2 or 3 seasons before I strip him of that tag.

In addition to the increase in Runs and RBI, I’d expect 20 HR out of the big fella.

Contact: Loney’s a legitimate .300 hitter, and shouldn’t have to sacrafice his average to hit more dingers.  He wont post the ridiculous .330 again, unless he starts gettin’ real lucky.

Loney’s Line: 75R/19-20HR/95RBI/.300AVG/7SB

Loney vs. Sandoval

Have you seen Pablo Sandoval’s BABIP over the past couple years?  Look at him, he’s not someone who posts .387 (A+), .347 (AA), .367 (MLB) BABIPs at each level in 2008. While Sandoval is a very popular sleeper, he doesn’t walk and slugging .500 again is asking a lot.  Loney’s in a better line-up with more RBI opportunities.

Loney vs. LaRoche

It seems like LaRoche should be hitting more Home Runs, right?  He’s only pegged for somewhere in the neighbourhood of 25HR on the year.  You’re taking Loney even if you think he only hits 15 HR.  Loney’s batting average should be at least .290 to LaRoche’s .270, and he’ll post noticeably better R and RBI totals.  While you can’t bank on Loney running wild, you’re also probably getting at least 5 or 6 more stolen bases out of him.  Even a .20pt average, 5 runs, 5 Rbi, 5 SB make up for the difference in 6 or 7 HR.  These are also also very conservative estimates of Loney.

Loney vs. Jackson

They’ll both hit between 15-20HR and they’ll both hit around .300.  Looking at Jackson’s 10 stolen bases compared to Loney’s 7 SB, is probably a wash so it comes down to R and RBI.  Jackson hasn’t proven he’s a run producer, and I tend to think that Loney’s RBI+RUN will best whatever Jackson can put up.

These two you can compare probably the easiest of the bunch, as they’re essentially the same type of player. The Diamondbacks have a capable replacement to steal at-bats in Chad Tracy; assuming Eric Byrnes eventually wiggles his way back into the line-up.  The only thing Jackson has going for him is his multi-position eligibility.

Loney vs. Delgado

Finally we’re getting to the tough comparisons.  Delgado is going to knock out 30HR, and hits in a very solid line-up. He’ll occupy a better spot in the line-up as well.  So we’re looking at at least 2, with a very good shot at 3, categories Delgado will take Loney in.

However, Delgado is going to hit about .260 to .270, and won’t steal a base.

Even if you consider Loney dominating those two cataegories, it’s still a fairly close race.  Then you take into account Delgado is getting very old, and very close to the point where great ball players just fall off the edge.

Loney vs. Votto

This is where the Loney fun stops.  I can’t under any circumstances place Loney ahead of Joey Votto.  Loney’s speed is negated, Loney’s average is negated and Loney’s age is negated.  Both are young, and Votto plays in a better park which makes up for the slightly worse line-up.

Loney vs. Pena

Pena hit .247 last year with 31HR. Depending on your league, that average starts getting to the point where it’s *too* low for a paltry 30 HR.  The line-ups are fairly similar, and Pena strikes out a tonne.  Pena also walks a good bit, which makes his average slightly less harmful.

Are 15 HR worth a .50 pt batting average dip, and the 7 or 8 steals Loney brings to the table? It really depends on your league.  If all goes well for Loney, this is a definite push.

Loney vs. Lee

This is the most interesting of the bunch.  If Loney continues to mature, he’ll post Derrek Lee’s 2008 season: 93R/20HR/90RBI/.291AVG/8SB

This is what owners thought Loney would do last year.

Lee’s on the downside of his career, and you should probably expect a decline in his SB numbers at the very least.  Loney on the other hand is just starting to enter his prime.

Loney vs. The Conclusion

After looking through this, Joey Votto is realistically the only player I couldn’t go into a draft saying would be outperformed by James Loney.

All of the other guys on this list, could potentially and quite easily, be outperformed by Loney.  Loney’s just starting to come into his prime, as he’ll turn 25 about halfway through the season.  He’s still got a lot of maturing to endure, but he could put up very solid numbers this year.

So Why Is Loney Ranked So Low? People become fixated with his run total, and lack of power from the first base position.  Loney will improve upon his 66 Runs scored, even if he doesn’t mature as a player.  Maybe Matt Kemp Matures. Maybe Russell Martin becomes the best fantasy catcher out there. Andre Ethier could easily become a force this year.  Loney’s Run numbers should take care of themselves.

His power on the other hand is a different story.  You should be concerned that your first baseman may only hit 13 HR. Loney hasn’t shown true HR power at any point in his career, even in the minors.  He has shown power though, and he could potentially slug at a .500 clip again. Young players often display doubles power before they break out and start smash-killing the ball.

20 HR isn’t out of the question, and he could easily best that number.

I actually enjoyed this, and hopefully I’ll get some other googlized questions.