Brett Myers has an ERA of 3.18 despite a relatively average .322 BABIP and 74.6% LOB-Rate.  Myers is striking out 9.15 hitters-per-9 and sporting a 1.16 WHIP in June.  Shockingly, Myers has yet to go fewer than 6 Innings all year.  Myers has posted a quality start in 9 of his 13 chances this year.

After posting ERAs of 4.97 and 5.03 in the previous two months, Javier Vazquez is posting a 3.31 ERA in June thus far.  Hitters have been hitting a mere .157 (on a .158 BABIP) during the same time span. After a couple months where Vazquez posted 4.50+ BB/9, he’s finally settled down to the 2.14 BB/9 region in June.  Vazquez has always posted terrific K:BB numbers and may have finally turned the corner.  Vazquez won’t be the sub-3.00 ERA pitcher that he was for the Braves last year, but he’s still very talented and a terrific buy at this point.

Josh Hamilton is quietly putting together MVP-type numbers after catching fire in June.  Hamilton’s tied with Carlos Pena for the league lead in HR since June 1st with 7.  Hamilton’s slow start to the season has been overshadowed by his ascent up the leader boards.  Hamilton’s currently 5th in HR, 8th in RBI, 11th in RBI and 13th in batting average.

Jonny Gomes is holding his own against righties.  Primarily a platoon slugger, Gomes now has a slash-line of .285/.324/.485 with six of his nine homers against righties.  Against lefties, Gomes is almost a must start with only an 18.6% K-Rate, 13.7% BB-Rate and a 1.082 OPS.  Considering that Gomes only has a  9.7 HR/FB against lefties, he should be in for a homer-binge at some point soon.

It’s unlikely that Borbon will be able to permanently crack the top-half of the order that consists of Andrus, Young, Kinsler, Hamilton and Guerrero but his left-handed bat would be an asset between the all-righty triumvirate that leads off.

When Nelson Cruz returns, almost all of the Rangers’ pop comes from the right side with only Josh Hamilton, Justin Smoak and Julio Bourbon being primarily lefties at the dish.  For many managers, this is a good enough reason to find a way for Borbon to break up a run of righties, especially as the season progresses.

Of course, all this would be meaningless if not for Borbon’s recent resurgence. After an April in which Borbon hit a paltry .191, he’s gradually improved, hitting .278 in May before tearing the skin off the ball in June en route to a .462 average.  Borbon still views a walk as if it were the plague but he’s already matched his previous two months and June isn’t even half over.  I’m not sure how much we can celebrate Borbon posting one walk in three consecutive months but small steps people, small steps.  We’re getting to the point where Borbon’s 2% walk-rate is becoming statistically significant but it’s still quite plausible that he’ll post a ZiPS predicted 5.1% BB-Rate for the rest of the year.

Borbon obviously needs to get on base in order to put his blazing speed to use; something he hasn’t been doing despite posting a .463 OBP on the strength of a .514 BABIP in June.  In 2010 thus far, Borbon has played in 10 more games than 2009 yet has stolen almost half as many bases.

At this point, rostering Julio Borbon is a bit of a gamble but he’s still owned in under 30% of Yahoo! Leagues.  In deeper leagues, it’s definitely a gamble worth taking despite Borbon’s free-swinging ways (40% O-Swing) and poor BB-Rate (1.6%).  I’m a firm believer that with confidence comes a return to patience:  Now that Borbon isn’t swinging away for a job, he’s more likely to wait for something to happen rather than forcing it to happen.

If this gamble pays off, you’ll get around a stolen base or two per week for the rest of the season which should put Borbon around the 30SB mark.  Expecting a batting average over .300 is probably pushing it but Borbon should be able to come within shouting distance of the number with a little bit of luck — .290 sound fair?

Niese’s Thursday Night Line: 1H, 0R, 0BB and 6K.

Niese’s 7.06 Ks-per-9 and 2.98 BB-per-9 give him a decent K:BB but in the eyes of many fantasy owners, Niese just isn’t all that sexy.  Niese isn’t going to touch the mid-90′s but a well placed 89.9mph fastball can do just as much damage if you make it dance.

In what seems like a growing trend, Niese hasn’t been racking up his strike-outs with absolutely filthy pitches but rather with a group of pitches that all look the same but move in opposite directions.  Niese relies on his best pitch, the cutter, 26% of the time which puts him up there with guys like Dan Haren and Jaime Garcia in terms of usage. Niese’s cutter comes in at a little over 86mph and is complimented by a four-seamer and two-seamer along with a curveball and change-up.  Niese’s cutter doesn’t quite have the movement that Jaime Garcia’s been riding en route to a 1.47 ERA but it’s still a very serviceable pitch.

With the Marlins and Padres out of the picture, Niese schedule will now feature a game against the Indians before heading home to face the Tigers and Twins if the schedule holds true.  If Niese gets bumped, he could easily end up facing the Yankees at Yankee stadium which probably isn’t the best environment for success.

Considering that Jon Niese is only at 5% owned in standard Y! Leagues, he’s a great speculative add.  Niese plays in the ridiculously pitcher-friendly Citi-Field and has continued to increase his ground-ball percentage which both bode well for future performance.  At the very least, give Niese a look for his Cleveland start.

Hernandez worked a fairly clean ninth inning against the Yankees’ 8th, 9th, leadoff and two-hole hitters.  After getting Marcus Thames to fly-out on a first pitch 95mph heater, Hernandez walked Kevin Russo.  Hernandez started Russo off with two fastballs that painted the black before issuing four consecutive balls.  The lack of aggressiveness exhibited is troublesome as you know Hernandez wanted to sit down the easy part of the Yankees’ order before facing Jeter.  However, Jeter flied out to Markakis on a 95mph fastball after seeing a 96mph heater to start the AB.  The inning was closed out and the save acquired after Nick Swisher chased a couple 96.5mph fastballs before grounding out to second base.

Hernandez, a converted starter, had averaged 93mph on his fastball in the two previous years but drastically pumped it up for the ninth inning of last night’s game.  Throwing only fastballs — two were identified as two-seamers — Hernandez averaged 95.9mph on his four-seamer.  In his initial outing as closer, Hernandez also induced his fair share of swing-and-misses (27% whiff) without having to reach into his repertoire of off-speed pitches.

In addition to the fastball, Hernandez has a decent slurve with mostly horizontal action and a show-me change-up.  The change-up doesn’t have the dive or tail that you’d expect but it still comes in almost 10mph slower than his straight heat.  In most of his ninth inning duties, Hernandez should rely heavily on his pair of fastballs and the slurve while vanquishing the change-up.

Heading forward, if you’re in dire need of saves, Hernandez probably isn’t the worst option.  His K-per-9 should improve from the current 5.98 if he’s able to maintain the increased velocity.  However, the lack of control (5.62BB/9) probably won’t improve past his 4.09-per-9 of 2009. Many of Hernandez’s plate discipline statistics are concerning but the O-Swing (curr. 21.7%) and Swinging Strike Rate (curr. 7.2%) should trend towards league average (O-Swing: 28%, SwStr: 8%) due to his increased velocity.

Coghlan’s no longer freakishly useful — a toothless hooker robbed him of his second base eligibility (and dignity) — but as an outfielder leading off a Marlins line-up that just called up Mike Stanton, he’ll provide enough value to maintain Top-45 outfield value for the rest of the season.  In 12-team, 3-OF, 1-Util baseball leagues, this is enough to justify a starting outfield gig on most teams and definitely a bench-spot.

Over the past 14-days, Coghlan’s been a top-5 hitter in terms of batting average (.440) and a top-15 hitter in OPS (1.141).  However, much of this has to do with Coghlan’s ownership of the top spot in BABIP (.568) and will likely regress in the near future.  ZiPS predicts Coghlan to maintain his current .335 BABIP for the rest of the season which should come as no surprise to anyone that rode his .365 BABIP to a .321 BA in 2009.

However, even with Coghlan hitting 32.4% line-drives over the past two weeks, there are many warning signs:

• Coghlan’s still striking out almost a quarter of the time compared to 2009′s 15% K-Rate.
• Coghlan’s continued to walk a mere 6% of the time over the past two-weeks.
• After last year’s success, Coghlan’s seen fewer pitches inside of the strike-zone and has been unable to lay off the junk.  Coghlan’s O-swing has risen from 21.5% in 2009 to 27.8% in 2010.  Over his hit-streak, he continues to post a 25% 0-Swing Rate.
• As is almost always the case with young hitters that succeed, Coghlan’s also seeing fewer fastballs in 2010.  Additionally, he’s seen his proficiency drop against every off-speed pitch after posting positive against sliders, curveballs and change-ups in 2009.  Coghlan’s still handling the curveball well but his ability to handle the slider and change-up has taken a dip.

With all of that said, this still isn’t an Anti-Coghlan article.

Coghlan’s horrific start to 2010 has been documented but taking 107 plate appearances to acquire an extra-base hit bears repeating.  After an April that saw Coghlan post a .195 Batting Average, he’s steadily improved: .252 in May and now .500 through seven June games.

Despite Coghlan’s short-comings in 2010, he’ll contribute to your fantasy squad on almost all fronts.  Hitting atop the Marlin’s line-up should allow Coghlan’s ZiPS predicted .283 BA the rest of the way home to translate into a solid source of runs.  Coghlan’s also resumed his running ways — he posted 34 SB in AA in 2008 — by stealing seven bases thus far in 2010 after only recording eight in 2009.

An optimistic prediction for Coghlan the rest of the way:  .290 AVG / 55 R / 6HR/ 35 RBI / 13 SB — this would put him around .280 AVG/ 83 R / 9HR / 52 RBI / 20SB on the year.  These numbers are definitely playable in most formats and Coghlan still has some upside left in the tank.  He may not have a single category that stands out like last year’s batting average but he’ll contribute across the board.

Just remember, it was Coghlan’s second half that won him the ROY award.  Coghlan slumped in 2009 too and managed to hit over .370 after the All-Star break to take home the cheddar.  If you’re in a shallower league, I’d recommend paying attention to Coghlan’s BB:K rate before making the move to add him.

Cahill’s still having trouble locating pitches outside of his sinker, but here’s the comparison:

Sinker: Cahill’s two-seamer or sinker has been getting an extra couple inches of drop and he’s been going to it quite frequently.

Change-Up: Considering the swing-and-miss percentage, the change-up has been Cahill’s best pitch over the past two years.  Cahill’s went to it less this year despite adding significant sink to the pitch by detracting spin.

Curveball: Here’s the money-pitch.  Cahill’s knuckle-curve was highly touted coming out of the minors, but looked terribly average last year.  In the data, a handful of sliders were confused for curveballs but he was still barely breaking it past zero on either axis.  In 2010 this pitch has looked absolutely beautiful with an added 4 inches of movement on each axis.  Cahill however hasn’t be able to throw his curveball consistently for strikes and batters are simply laying off the pitch.

Slider: The slider as well has seen improvement as Cahill’s been releasing it at an angle that’ll allow a significant improvement in horizontal movement.

Analysis:

Cahill looks to be remarkably close to actually putting things together which goes to suggest his regression may not be quite as dramatic as suggested by his FIP.  There are a few concerns, starting with a sloppy release point that all but telegraphs Cahill’s intent to throw a straight four-seamer.  If Cahill’s able to clean up his delivery, the next problem is Cahill’s lack of strike-outs, pitch location and pitch selection.   Cahill’s location on breaking pitches, while not atrocious, hasn’t been great.  The lack of location has lead to an incredibly predictable pitcher, even when he gets out in front of batters early in the count.

On 0-and-2 counts, Cahill has been going to his fastball 75% of the time while only showing his slider and curveball five percent of the time.  The pattern continues on 1-and-2 counts before Cahill begins to throw his change-up a third of the time on 2-and-2 counts.  For a pitcher that came with a highly regarded curveball out of the minors, five percent of the time as a STFD (sit the fuck down) pitch doesn’t exactly show a trust in the pitch.  Brandon Webb, my favourite comparison for Cahill, went to his change-up and curveball over 20% of the time each on counts of 0-and-2 and 1-and-2.

Watching the Cahill-kid pitch, I have no doubt that he needs to work on his control but with the increased movement that he’s showing on all his pitches, he’s gotta let ‘em do the work for him.  As it stands, it’s almost as if the catcher’s in Oakland are calling games for last year’s Cahill, not the 2010 version.  Cahill’s an effective pitcher when he’s just throwing that sinker but for him to be anything more than a number three, he’ll have to start striking people out.

Fastforward to 2010 and Hochevar has finally gotten his ERA below five by a full five-hundredths of a run (4.95) — Exciting!

With two starts coming up in the next week, Hochevar could prove to be useful despite his propensity to lose control and blow-up.  On a team like the Royals, I wouldn’t count on Hochevar beating Ervin Santana (vs. LAA) or Justin Verlander (vs. DET) but that doesn’t mean Hochevar’s without value.

In the month of May, Hochevar’s pitched 32 innings of 3.94 ERA baseball.  Hochevar’s month-to-month splits perfectly showcases the role of luck in baseball:

April: AVG – .313, WHIP – 1.71, BABIP – .369, LOB% – 56.7%, FIP – 3.60.

May: AVG – .233, WHIP – 1.09, BABIP – .233, LOB% – 61.8%, FIP – 3.69.

It’s not all luck though, Hochevar’s reduced his line-drive percentage from 26% in April to 17.5% in May while maintaining a relatively constant 50% GB ratio.

To maintain any semblance of success, Hochevar will need to continue to pound the zone as he’s done in his last two starts.  Pitch location is key for a fastball that averaged 93.6mph against Cleveland (Note:  KC’s Gun renders a bit high, thus the spikes in velocity, so I’m using @CLE data).

Early strikes have allowed Hochevar to use his relatively new cut fastball which has been dominant thus far.  After throwing the pitch 0.2 and 0.8 percent over the previous years, Hochevar’s added a couple mph to the pitch and started throwing it 13.1% of the time.

In just his previous two games, Hochevar has went to the cut fastball 19.4% of the time eliciting a 62.5% swing rate and a whiff-rate of 22.5%. As a result of the cutter, Hochevar lasted 8 innings against Texas (2ER) and pitched a complete game against the Tribe (3ER).

Hochevar’s slider always been his best pitch and 2010 is no different as it’s registered a 3.07 (wSL/C) on fangraphs’ weighting system.   To round out Hochevar’s repertoire are a couple of less than stellar pitches that may be coming around.  Hochevar’s change-up has been consistently bad due to a lack of vertical movement but over the previous two starts he’s had a pretty good feel for it.  Finally, Hochevar will throw a steep curveball that breaks well below his slider but like his change-up, he’ll have issues locating the pitch from time to time and will often hang it up right around the belt.

Hochevar’s interesting combination of straight-heat with tail, a cutter and a rather dirty slider could be interesting to follow for the rest of the year.  If he’s able to maintain those three pitches while cleaning up his two-seamer, change and curveball, he may blossom into the pitcher that he should’ve been by now.

Delmon Young’s done something special thus far, he’s increased his BB-Rate to 8% while decreasing his K-Rate to 13.5% which has allowed him to post a career high BB:K of 0.67.  Normally that’d be enough for me to jump all over Young, especially with his BABIP sitting about 50pts lower than it was projected, but then the fun starts.

Delmon Young isn’t being any more selective on the pitches he swings at, he’s just not missing quite as often.  Young’s 37.7% O-Swing is on pace with last year but he’s just making 15% more contact on pitches outside of the zone compared to only 5% better on pitches inside of the zone.

As indicated by Young’s five percent decrease in swinging strike percentage, he’s just not missing as much.  Young’s still above the MLB average of 8% but 10% is much more respectable than 15%.

When Delmon’s hitting these pitches that he was missing in previous years, he’s not exactly doing anything productive with ‘em.  Young’s LD% is down 3% to 13.4% while his GB% has remained constant and his FB% has seen a marginal 4% increase.

It’s would be easier to interpret these findings as signs of an imminent break-out if Young was coming off an injury.  Young’s ability to foul pitches and prolong ABs isn’t anything to write off. Seeing more pitches is always a good thing, but if you think he’ll regress to the .338 BABIP that he’s had the previous three years — that’s insane, btw — you’re dreaming.

The pitches that Young’s making contact with now will hurt his BABIP rather than help it.

I’d definitely keep an eye on Delmon Young because if he’s able to wait on mistakes by fouling pitches off, he’s got a great chance at crushing them.  In the end, this isn’t a poor approach for Delmon Young but just don’t expect him to be a Hitting Jesus because his BABIP is that far below his consistent average.

You didn’t have to watch History’s Nostradamus Effect to know that an 8ER blowup might be in the cards for Bonderman early in the season but over the last month of the season, Bonderman’s accumulated an ERA of 1.33 ERA with a WHIP of 1.11.  Sure, Bonderman’s faced the Seattles and Oaklands of the world but he’s also held New York and Boston to 2 and 0 earned runs respectively.

Bonderman’s no longer touching 95mph with the heat but he’s still striking out batters at quite the pace.  Bonderman’s currently striking out 8.12 batters-per-9 which is right in line with his mid-2000′s numbers (2004: 8.22, 2006: 8.5.).  Bonderman’s control isn’t that far behind either; His 2010 3.02 BB/9 is merely a third of a batter off of his early years.

Bonderman’s fastball has registered above average in terms of results for the first time in his career and his slider has remained his best pitch (according to linear weighted pitch evaluations on fangraphs.com).  Furthermore, Bonderman’s registering the best contact-profile of his career even without the heat.  Batters are swinging at a career high 33.4% of Bonderman’s pitches outside of the zone, while swinging at fewer pitches inside the zone.  Bonderman’s overall contact rate of 80% is in line with his previous numbers excluding his previous two injury prone seasons.  Bonderman isn’t inducing as many swinging strikes as in previous years but his 9.4% is above the league average and his 2008/9 numbers.

Bonderman’s getting this done the same way every other pitcher not blessed with 95mph heat does; he’s relying on control and movement.  The PFX system is now recognizing almost 25% of Bonderman’s total pitches as two seamed fastballs.  Bonderman’s 2-seamer still hits 90 mph on the gun but he’s getting an additional couple inches of both tail and sink over his 4-seamer.

Bonderman’s slider is the big-show, though.  His decreased velocity is allowing an already superior slider to break hard (and late).  Bonderman’s added almost an extra inch of cut to it while increasing the drop such that it registers an 0.4 of Vertical Movement.  Bonderman’s delivery and release point has always been tight – we’re talking about a man that was born to pitch – which have allowed him to repeat his delivery and give hitters trouble picking up the different pitches.

Bonderman’s change-up has become somewhat infamous.  Every year, Bonderman’s entered camp with an *improved* change-up and every year it gets smacked around.  In 2010, the pitch hasn’t exactly impressed — he still spins the fuck out of it, resulting in a change without drop — but he’s went to it enough (14%) to put it in hitters minds.

As for what to look at and for heading forward, there’s plenty: Bonderman’s only allowing 3.7% of Flyballs to go for homers after consistently putting up 11% in the HR/FB category.  Secondly, Bonderman’s always had a ridiculously bad LOB% which currently sits at 62.9% but should at least regress to the 70% range.

Bonderman definitely seems to have his shit together in 2010 and I wouldn’t be the slightest bit surprised if his velocity starts slowly coming back.  Maybe the layoff helped him with perspective but remember we’re still dealing with a pitcher that consistently pisses on FIP by posting an ERA at least half a run worse than his indicators.  Bonderman registered a 4.08 ERA in 2006 and it wouldn’t be ridiculous to expect something on the high-side of that….

if.

he.

stays.

healthy.

Lincecum’s obviously in trouble with 15BB in his previous 17.2 innings pitched after allowing only 10 total BB over the previous 7 starts.  The question obviously becomes WHY? Why has Lincecum allowed 15 BB?  Why has Lincecum seen his ERA rise from 1.76 to 3.00 in the previous two games?

The San Jose Mercury News reports speculations that Lincecum has been dealing with a blister,

According to a pregame television report, Lincecum had a blister on his pitching hand. Manager Bruce Bochy refuted the report, saying Lincecum “wasn’t pitching with a blister (and) we wouldn’t have pitched him with a blister.”

Lincecum, his hands noticeably stuffed in his sweatshirt postgame interview, sidestepped the blister question.”It’s something I’ve dealt with before,” he said. “I go out there all the time, so … whatever.”

Bochy obviously displeased of the idea that he sent an injured Lincecum out to pitch had this to say,

“He was out of sync tonight, no getting around it. He lost focus with men on base. He’s pressing a little. He’s got to regroup. He’s done an incredible job (but) as good as he’s been, he’s going to have his streaks. The next bullpen will be an important ‘pen for him.”

There’s no real reason to prove or discredit Blister-Gate but there are some small signals that Lincecum’s been dealing with something.

The loss of velocity on his fastball was at first considered part of Lincecum’s maturation but logic would dictate that he’d have no problem dialing it up for the occasional high-leverage situation but he hasn’t done that thus far (graph court. fangraphs.com):

According to fangraphs, Lincecum’s lost over a mph on his fastball in 2010.  Lincecum has been experimenting with increased usage of the two-seamer, cutter and change-up to become a better pitcher rather than just a flame-thrower and it appeared to have been working — Until the wheels fell off, of course.

Contrasting the first seven games of the season and the previous three, it’s clear that not only is Lincecum having trouble locating but the pitches just aren’t moving as much:

Lincecum’s change-up, a pitch he was throwing 25% of the time to start the season, was a strike 75% of the time with batters whiffing 32% of the time after swinging at 68% of them. Conversely in his previous three starts, Lincecum was throwing changes 20% of the time, it was a strike 61.3% of the time with batters swinging at a 52% percent clip and whiffing almost 23% of the time.  Originally, the change had almost 3.5 inches of tail but it’s fallen flat with under 2″ in the past three games. Less spin and a breaking direction 20 degrees closer to straight down has all but removed the tail horizontal movement.

Lincecum’s early success featured him throwing a straight four-seamer 35% of the time and the two-seamer with horizontal movement 16% of the time.  In the previous three games, Lincecum has all but abandoned the two-seamer (down 7%) as it’s only drawing a strike 36.7% of the time compared to it’s earlier rate of 61%.

Here’s the full comparison of Lincecum’s pitch-use:

First 7 Games:

Last 3 Games:

Evidence of Blister-Gate is moderately supported by viewing Lincecum’s spin-rate comparisons from the previous couple years:

2009:

First Seven Games of 2010:

Compared to the previous 3 of 2010:

While some of the rotational loss between years can be attributed to the slowing of Lincecum’s overall movement and torque, the difference between the first seven and last 3 games of 2010 is quite noticeable.  Despite a stable velocity on his offspeed pitches, he’s been unable to impart the same degree of spin and rotation on the ball.

The easiest way to explain this is the one that Bochy’s been denying:  Tim Lincecum has SOMETHING — whether it’s a blister or hangnail — wrong with his finger(s).  Lincecum was given an extra day of rest going into last night’s start and it definitely didn’t help, so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a DL trip in the near future.