..wait, Samardzija picked the Cubs instead of the NFL? I guess that makes sense when you run a 4.62 / 40 Yd Dash.  It worked out for Drew Henson, right?

Stat time!

SKILLS

So, first off what the hell happened when Samardzija hit AAA last year? For some reason Jeff decided to become a solid pro-prospect and put up respectable K/9 numbers after a couple seasons of mediocre numbers.

The K/9 numbers hung in there at almost a strike per inning, once he arrived in the bigs.  It’s pretty tough to judge Samardzija based on 70 Innings Pitched between AAA and the MLB.

The 1.40 WHIP and 4.88 BB per 9 aren’t pretty stats, and maybe he’ll improve on them, or maybe he’ll continue making power-pitching rookie  mistakes.

However, a big HOWEVER, Samardzija has the tools to work with:

95 MPH fastball, 83MPH slider, 85MPH change-up, and a 85mph Splitter.

Samardzija also has a 2-seam fastball, which like his 4 seamer, has a good amount of action on it. It may be Samardzija’s addition of the Splitter that’s brought him up to the bigs, and increased his K-Rate.

That’s what gets my vote anyways. I’d like to look into the PFX data on his change-up, but that’ll have to wait. He doesn’t appear to hide the change-up at all, and a full off-season and camp should help with that.

Samardzija has the stuff to excel, it’s just a matter of controlling it which will take time.  I’d like to see him spend a full year in Triple-A, but he’s in that in-between phase.

Opportunity

According to the Chicago Tribune, Samardzija at least hopes to be the Cubs 5th starter. So, at least that’s good.  Hopes and dreams make for all-stars!

Unfortunately, the only shot that Samardzija has to start is nabbing that number 5 spot. The Cubs rotation is pretty much set in stone, at least until an injury:

1. Carlos Zambrano
2. Rich Harden
3. Ryan Dempster
4. Ted Lilly

So, who’s Samardzija battling with for that number five spot?

1. Sean Marshall
2. Aaron Heilman
3. Chad Gaudin
4. Angel Guzman
5. Kevin Hart
6. FREE AGENT / TRADE

Starting with Guzman and Hart, Samardzija has probably a better shot than either of those two.  Everyone’s inexperienced, and Samardzija has got the inside track. Guzman used to be considered front-line starter material, so keep an eye out.

Heilman and Gaudin, are also probably best stuck into the same group.  Heilman went from being Seattle’s potential closer to a Chicago Cub without a job. I’m not quite sure why the Cubs would have traded Olson for Heilman if they planned on filling that SP #5 with them. To me, it seems like it’s almost guarenteed that Heilman is going to be traded again — or — work in a relief role.

Gaudin has started before, and he’s good in spurts.  It wouldn’t surprise me to see Gaudin land the spot starter role, on this club. It’s almost a given that someone on the Cubbies rotation is going to get hurt for a length of time; So Gaudin will step in.

This still leaves that number five starting pitcher spot open, wide open.

Marshall, Samardzija, Free Agent

Marshall used to be quite the prospect, and he’s a servicably back-end starter at this point.  He’s got more experience than Samardzija and he’s also got the benefit of being another lefty. Right now, It’s about as much of a coin-flip as you could ever imagine. Pitchers and Catchers will report in a couple days, so this may actually be a battle that’s waged during Spring Training.

Free Agent / Trade?

I’m considering this a pretty realistic option, as the market is still doing it’s thing.  Ben Sheets is obviously tarnished goods at this point.

Heilman could have been picked up from the Mariners to be swung in a Peavy? trade. Right now it seems downright IDIOTIC, that the Cubs would have traded Felix Pie for Aaron Heilman — somethings got to be in the works, right?

Peavy trade situation courtesy of MLB.com, says maybe the trade will go down after the Cubs sale.

and here’s the Sun Times’ take as of the end of January

The problem with the Peavy deal is that the Cubs are running out of back-up plans.  The lower-tier free agent pitchers are now starting to get signed, as pitchers and catchers report to camp in under a bloody week. Pedro’s still out there, but do the Cubs need another Injury risk?

Verdict:

I’d put Samardzija at about a 1/3 shot of breaking camp with the job.  That doesn’t particularly mean he’ll have no value though.

If the Cubs don’t get Peavy, then Samardzija has a shot of making the rotation in the first month of the season.  Someone will get hurt, and/or Marshall may suck it up.

Maybe Gaudin gets the first shot at the Spot-Starter Role, maybe not.

I’d have to say feed the machine, but your league better be deep as all hell. I can think of plenty of other pitchers I’d gamble on.

Photo Courtesy of TheWestEnd

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