Carlos Gonzalez is a superior talent and will develop into a 25/25 or 35/15 player with superior defensive skills. This is of course true — IF — CarGo can get an idea of what the strike-zone is.

The sky is the limit with this guy, but the basement is not that pretty. We’re talking serial killer-type basement, with limbs in the freezer and Detroit Lions games  on a constant loop. We’re talking Wily Mo Pena + Juan Encarnacion + A Bit More Defense. 30% K-rate, and 5%-BB rate type basement.

Last year Baseball Prospectus came in with Carlos Gonzalez at 26th overall, while Baseball America had him at 22nd overall.  CarGo is a great player, but that strike-out rate and swing-rate are potential deal-breakers. Whether or not these two things are tied to skill level or just the lack of desire to improve is up for debate.

As I mentioned in the Dexter Fowler article, the Rockies outfield is crowded.  Right now, it looks like the left-field job is a toss up between Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith. While Gonzalez has more upside, it looks like S. Smith is more MLB-ready which I’ll get into in the next article.

Carlos Gonzalez: Statistically Speaking

So the table isn’t particularly beautiful, but it is courtesy of fangraphs.com. Open Office was unstoppable in converting 5% to .050, but it’s 9am on a Saturday so we’ll wage that war at a later point in time.

The Strike-Out Rate stands out, as Gonzalez constantly puts up about 25%. It’s somewhat comical that whenever there’s a small sample size warning, Gonzalez has cut down on his K-Rate. His walk rate is atrocious for someone who strikes out that much.

We’ve almost got all of the bad out of the way:  Carlos Gonzalez swings at everything, absolutely everything.  Dave Cameron over at fangraphs put together an analysis of Cargo and his absolutely ridiculous Swing Rate, and O-Swing Rate (how often does he swing at pitches outside the zone). I really can’t praise the gentlemen over at fangraphs enough for putting together smart analysis and putting together the stats in an easily readable package.

Carlos Gonzalez in the Venezuelan Winter League: A New Hope

Carlos Gonzalez Regular Season VWL numbers:

MLB LINK

The 21 strike-outs in 100 PA, seems about in-line with Gonzalez’s regular numbers but an 11% BB rate is a nice improvement.  When you follow it up with his playoff numbers, we might just be on to something.

Gonzalez’s Venezuelan WL Playoff Numbers

MLB LINK

Of course there is the requisite small sample size warning, but he walked 11 times in 14 games. Maybe Carlos is starting to come due, and understand the game?

Opportunity and Final Analysis

The Rockies starting left-fielder job is about an open a competition as there is. Currently Gonzalez is listed as the starting left-fielder, but other than Brad Hawpe in RF no-one’s assured a job. (CBS seems to have the most-updated Depth Charts, why? no-one knows)

Gonzalez could hold onto the job with a strong camp, but Major League Ready Seth Smith could also nab the job.  Matt Murton was once listed as one of the Cubs’ better prospects, so technically he’s also got a shot at the job.  If Dexter Fowler breaks camp with the starting CF job, there’s a chance that Clint Hurdle could even move Ryan Spillbroghs over to left. If Spillbroghs ends up in CF, Scott Podsednik may steal the LF job as the Rockies desperately need a lead-off hitter.

There’s probably a few more possibilities, but for the most part — those are the more likely scenarios.

I have Gonzalez listed as a top-100 OF, as odds are that he’ll break camp with the job.  We all know how hitter-friendly Coors Field is, and Gonzalez has pop.  Even if Gonzalez can get his BB-Rate up to 8 or 9 percent, it’ll make a 20 percent K-Rate more palatable.

Gonzalez has about a 75 percent chance of breaking camp with the job, and I’d imagine he’d bottom out at about 350AB.  The Rockies should be looking to shop one of their young outfielders, or veterans as the depth is nutty.

Carlos Gonzalez has the opportunity to put up top-30 OF numbers if everything goes well, but a more realistic goal is top-50.

Gonzalez is one of my favourite sleepers going into 2009, but the bust potential is massive.

If you buy Cargo’s hype, then you better have a back-up plan or at least have suitable replacements on the waiver-wire.  He could be a very nice late round gamble though as there are very few players that you can nab in the very late rounds that have the potential to put up early mid-round numbers. Most of them have already been through the ringer more than a few times and everyone in your fantasy league will know their name.

If you’re in a keeper league, regardless of Gonzalez’s Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ratings, he’s far from a sure thing.  The risk and reward is exponentially increased when you’re dealing with Gonzalez in a dynasty-type league. Devaluing Gonzalez in a dynasty league is probably a wise move as there are safer “top prospects”.

Photo Provided By Kimberly* Flickr

Dexter Fowler - COL - Dave Nelson Flickr

Dexter Fowler – Centerfielder – Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have put together the best of both worlds with their outfield.  It’s stacked with average to above-average veterans that will do an admirable job filling in until the youngsters come due.

The depth allowed them to trade away one of the best corner-outfielders in the game, in Matt Holliday.

The Veterans: Scott Podsednik, Ryan Spillbroghs, and Brad Hawpe.

The Rookies: Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Seth Smith.

The Inbetween-ers: Matt Murton, Chris Frey, Dan Ortmeier and Matt Miller

If you wanted to put together an outfield, this is a great way to go about doing so.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, the Rockies outfield depth may negatively effect any single prospects fantasy value.

Dexter Fowler — Center-field-prospect-extraordinare.

Baseball Prospectus, which I generally always use as my starting point, just released their 2009 top prospect rankings/ratings.  Fowler comes in at an improved 12th overall. Sandwiched between two uber-prospects in the Marlins organization, Cameron Maybin and Mike Stanton.

SKILLS AND STATS:

When scouts draw up a five-tool player, they draw up guys like Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones before he turned on the suck-switch.  These are the type of players that the scouts have compared Fowler to.  Defense doesn’t convert to fantasy value, so we’ll just huck that out.  While this probably lowers Fowler on the prospect list, he’s still a switch-hitting baller with speed to spare.

Much like Cameron Maybin, Fowler can steal a shit-tonne of bases if he’s given the opportunity.  The Raw speed isn’t in question — He does however need to work on his base running skills.  Luckily, getting caught stealing isn’t a negative in fantasy baseball.  The Rockies let Willy Tavares go, because even at such a young age Fowler can do everything that Tavares could.

At this point, Fowler’s power is still pretty raw and his ceiling is probably about 12-15 HR given a full-time gig.  Eventually Fowler will top out about 20 HR potential, which is just dandy for your lead-off man.  Fowler seems to understand that he’s being groomed for the CF-gig and has been using his power to pound doubles, rather than whack home-runs.

A quick note on Fowler’s picking up switch-hitting after an entire amateur career of only hitting from one side of the plate: WOW.  He’s kept his lefty-average over .275 which is darn impressive. The Gents over at baseball-intellect.com put together a nice piece on Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin — just remember, it was put together at the start of 2008 prior to Fowler’s ridiculous .946 OPS bounce-back season.

His Strike-Out Rate is a bit concerning, although he did improve on his 26% High-A rate posting a respectable 20% K-Rate in AA last year. A minor league BB-Rate of between 10-15 percent keeps his OBP at a very solid .400+

Forget about 2007, as 2006 and 2008 appear to be the real Dexter Fowler.

Opportunity

Looking at the remainder of the Rockies line-up, there’s really no typical lead-off hitter.  If Fowler gets the job, he’ll almost certainly lead the line-up off — which will result in a whole hoot of a lot of RUN opportunities.

Clint Barmes and Willy Tavares spent the majority of 2008 atop the Rockies line-up, and Tavares is in Cincinnati and Barmes may lose his job to Ian Stewart who is about as far from a lead-off hitter as you can get.

Right now, it’s looking like the Rockies can either lead off with Spillbroghs or Fowler and it’ll be interesting to see how it pans out.

Maybe Seth Smith is more Major League ready at this point, but he’s not a lead-off hitter.  Carlos Gonzalez is still swinging at everything, and striking out too much — which is unfortunate.

Watch Fowler in the pre-season, as he could use at least a few months in Triple-A.  Unfortunately with the depth the Rockies have in the OF, a slump may relegate Fowler to the minors for a few months of seasoning.

Conclusion

If you’re in a deep league, consider Fowler. His upside is equal to that of Cameron Maybin who’s been flying off draft-boards.  A slump is almost inevitable, and impatient owners will more than likely drop him. If you can afford the roster-spot, he’s definitely worth the gamble.  Even with limited at-bats in 2009, he’ll produce in at least the stolen base category.

Maybe Fowler isn’t worth a starting spot in your line-up at this point, but he should be the first guy off your bench.

Buy the Hype.

Even if he doesn’t make the club out of camp, he’s worth rostering in a 5-6 OF 12 team league, or your first, possibly second, bench spot on a 14 team 4-OF league. It’ll be an interesting fight between Gonzalez, Smith and Fowler.