Rookies & Keepers

Rick Porcello & Trevor Cahill: Past, Present, Future.

Heading into 2009, Baseball America did everyone a favour and ranked the top-100 prospects. After dominating Olympic competition, Oakland’s Trevor Cahill and his heavy fastball jumped into the top-20 as the 11th overall prospect, just behind super-prospect Neftali Feliz. Twenty-year old Rick Porcello wasn’t all that far behind as Baseball America ranked him the 21st overall for the second year in a row.

It’s Porcello, one year removed from his 7-million dollar prep-bonus, that’s adapted to the level of competition quicker — or so it appears. Porcello’s currently 6-and-2 with a sparking 3.48 ERA which is head and shoulders above Cahill’s 4.48 ERA and 2-and-5 record. Their Fielding Independent Pitching ERAs aren’t nearly as pretty, but Porcello once against bests Cahill with a 4.67 to 5.61 advantage. Neither Porcello nor Cahill has been as dominant as expected; both posted painfully low strike-out numbers, especially given their pure stuff.  Porcello posted surprisingly low strike-out totals in his first professional season, failing to tally 6-K per 9 in High-A.  Porcello’s continued to post mediocre strike-out totals in the show, notching only 5.57 K per 9, thus far.  Porcello’s succeeded on the strength of a ridiculous 54% ground-ball rate and by limiting free passes.

Read more

Keeper League Talk: The Mark Teixeira Trade Revisited.

Back in 2007, a couple weeks after Mark Teixeira Scott Boras turned down an 8-year / 140M offer from the Texas Rangers, Teixeira was promptly shipped off, alongside Ron Mahay, to the Atlanta Braves for Jarrod Saltalamacchia and a handful of the Braves’ top-prospects. Read more

High Impact Youngsters: Nick Adenhart

Edit: I learned this morning that Nick Adenhart tragically died in a car accident late last night. It’s sad to see such a promising career end so soon.

The Huffington Post also is reporting this.

The Los Angeles Angels and Oakland Athletics Game tonight was a big one.  It’s still only the 6th Inning, but I’m not too concerned with the score.  What I am concerned with is Nick Adenhart tonight, and Brett Anderson tomorrow.

In 2008, Baseball America ranked Nick Adenhart the 24th overall prospect. One year later, Baseball America ranked Brett Anderson the 7th overall prospect in all of baseball.

If either of these two guys were called up at mid-season, there would be Scherzer or Kershaw type hype.  Adenhart was called up late last year, and brought the fail pretty hard but we won’t hold that against him.

Adenhart is still going strong in the 6th inning, and has just been replaced by Arredondo which finalizes his line of 6IP, 7H, 3BB, 5K, and 0ER.

Adenhart has always been more of a tools guy rather than a numbers guy.  His strike-out rate has regressed slowly, from an 8.41 K/9 in A-Ball to about 6.80 K/9 in both AA & AAA. These numbers combined with a lackluster 3-4 BB/9 aren’t exactly screaming TOP-50 Prospect.

It’s Adenhart’s arsenal that saves him.  Adenhart was locating his fastball, and notching it up to 93mph.  On the night, Adenhart’s fastball averaged out at 91.5mph. His devastating curveball comes in at about 75-78mph, and his change-up splits the difference coming in at about 83mph.

Adenhart threw 61 of his 98 pitchers for strikes, which works out to a respectable 62 percent. While Adenhart walked 3 batters, walk-machine Jack Cust accounted for two of them. During both of Cust’s AB, Adenhart kept the ball painted around the corners, and at least a couple of the pitches could have been strikes.

What you should take from this game is that Adenhart kept his breaking pitches down, and was able to locate all three of his pitches.  With a kid like Adenhart, you’re going to want to concentrate on his walks and he couldn’t have faced a better team in order to showcase his improved control.

I’m not one to rush to judgment, but I loved what I saw from Adenhart tonight.  He’ll probably end up getting the W, and while the 5:3  strikeout to walk ratio doesn’t scream break-out, pitch fx tells a different story.

If I was in a deep league, I’d be taking a shot on Adenhart.  You might be able to wait another start before you pick up the kid, but if he posts another solid outing (lets say, 6IP, 2ER, 5K, 2BB) a line of 12 IP, 2 ER, 1.50 ERA, 10 K and 5 BB really starts to look appealing and you may have lost your shot.

Adenhart’s going to have some serious ups and downs, but he’ll get to skip Boston and the rest of his April will look like this: @Seattle,vs.  Detroit, vs. Seattle with the possibility of Minnesota rather than Detroit.

This schedule is perfect for speculating on a kid like Adenhart.  Seattle’s got a mediocre-to-awful team, Ichiro’s hurt, and they play in an extreme pitchers park.  Even if Adenhart has major issues locating, he shouldn’t hurt you *too* badly.

Hopefully one of the pfx guys does something up on Adenhart’s start, if not I’ll fire up the ol’ pfx database and throw up some graphs.

The Hype Machine Eats Mat Gamel – 3B – Brew Crew

Mat Gamel, The Heir Apparent? The Next Ryan Braun?

As a 23 year old, Gamel’s not quite to the point where he’s too old for Double-A but he’s getting close. For all you perverts out there, 23 in double-A is like 23 in women’s tennis: they just aren’t as sexy anymore.

In 2008, Gamel managed to grab a cup of coffee in both triple-A (5 Games) and the Show (2 Games). The sample size is obviously far too small for any reasonable analysis, however striking out 10 times in 21 AB in AAA leads me to believe he is indeed a human, and may have been pressing.

How Did Gamel Fair in AA? (Ryan Braun Mashed in Double-A and turned into an all-star. Sound Logic, Right?)

The internet’s ablaze with comparisons between Ryan Braun and Mat Gamel, all because they mashed AA pitching while proving that the mantra “No Glove, No Love” applies to players not just named, Roberto Alomar.

Thanks to The Baseball Cube, we can compare their Minor League statistics:

Player Name	Stat Type	Bavg	Obp	Slg	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HR	2B	R	RBI	SB
Ryan Braun	MLB	.301	.350	.588	938	264	1062	183	320	65	13	71	203	29	9	71	241	0.27	0.25	0.69	0.77	0.11
Mat Gamel	MLB	.500	.500	1.000	1500	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ryan Braun	Minor	.313	.375	.572	947	199	767	131	240	61	6	42	144	34	12	69	151	0.21	0.31	0.66	0.72	0.17
Mat Gamel	Minor	.305	.375	.489	864	447	1710	278	522	115	22	52	285	36	20	184	358	0.12	0.26	0.62	0.64	0.08

Statistics obviously, courtesy of the baseball cube.

Gamel’s played more games in this chart, as I haven’t included Ryan Braun’s college career. With that said, it’s pretty clear to see that Ryan Braun put up superior power and speed numbers than Mat Gamel.   With that said however, lets take a look at the Double-A seasons each had as a 22-year old:

Braun’s Line: .303 AVG/.367 OBP/.589 SLG / .956 OPS which translated into 15 HR in 59 Games.  You also must remember Braun spent 59 Games in High-A ball prior to being called up to Double-A in 2006.

Gamel’s Line: .329 AVG / .395 OBP / .537 SLG / .932 OPS which translated into 19HR in 127 G.

It’s fairly clear that Mat Gamel is lagging behind Ryan Braun in the power department, but not that far. It would be wise to assume, that like Braun, Gamel would start 2009 out in Triple-A.

So Gamel’s Got The Stick, What’s Stopping Him From Being TEH AWESOME?!

Right now, it appears as though Hall will break camp with the starting third base gig.  The Brewers have a back-up plan in Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell, both of which are proven commodities. So how badly will Bill Hall have to shit the bed, and how great will Gamel have to be?

When Ryan Braun got called up, he was slugging at a .700 clip in AAA.  If Gamel does this, he’ll get called up regardless of whether or not Hall finds his stroke.  Realistically, Gamel won’t do this because he is not one of the chosen people. If Gamel can maintain his current production against Triple-A pitching, he should be fine. It’s generally said that Double-A, and your adjustment to Double-A, is the make or break portion of your MiLB career.

It would serve Mat Gamel well to cut down on his near 21% K rate, but a 10% BB rate helps the medicine go down a bit easier. When Gamel’s doubles power translate into big league home run power, he’ll be dangerous.

Bill James’ robot has Gamel coming in at 150 Games in the 2009 season, which seems a bit ridiculous. Here’s the full-line:

150 Games, 539 AB, 35Doubles, 18 HR, 87 R, 89RBI, .302 AVG, 8 SB. 23.6 K%, 8.8 BB% and an OBP of .364.

Bill James is a brighter man than I, but these numbers seem a bit ridiculous; especially when you consider his projection model has Bill Hall down for 418 AB.

The Defense, It’s Always the Defense.

Gamel’s defense is awful, and while he’s improving, it’s a stretch to say that he’ll develop into even a below average third baseman.

Every Article written on Gamel explains why his defense is awful:

Fangraphs: It’s Almost Gamel Time

Diamond Cutter: Gamel’s Scouting Report

Sportsbubbler: Gamel #3 Brewers Prospect

Minorleagueball: Gamel, Again.

Hardballtimes: Yah, It’s Bad

Conclusion:

If Gamel gets called up, he’ll play.  The Brewers won’t call him up simply to sit on the bench while he could be refining his glove-work in Triple-A.

The problem is whether or not Gamel will get the call.  At this point, there’s no way he could step into the starting third base role without massive improvements over the winter and first month or two of the MiLB season.

If someone goes down in the outfield, definitely pounce.

If you’re sitting around watching a Brewers game and Ryan Braun starts taking grounders at third again, definitely pounce.

I’m just not sure that Gamel gets reps at third even if Hall plays terribly.

I don’t think I’d draft Gamel, but I’d definitely be the first guy on a WW claim for him because as I said, if he gets the call — he’ll play.

Carlos Gonzalez, CarGo – OF – Colorado Rockies

Carlos Gonzalez is a superior talent and will develop into a 25/25 or 35/15 player with superior defensive skills. This is of course true — IF — CarGo can get an idea of what the strike-zone is.

The sky is the limit with this guy, but the basement is not that pretty. We’re talking serial killer-type basement, with limbs in the freezer and Detroit Lions games  on a constant loop. We’re talking Wily Mo Pena + Juan Encarnacion + A Bit More Defense. 30% K-rate, and 5%-BB rate type basement.

Last year Baseball Prospectus came in with Carlos Gonzalez at 26th overall, while Baseball America had him at 22nd overall.  CarGo is a great player, but that strike-out rate and swing-rate are potential deal-breakers. Whether or not these two things are tied to skill level or just the lack of desire to improve is up for debate.

As I mentioned in the Dexter Fowler article, the Rockies outfield is crowded.  Right now, it looks like the left-field job is a toss up between Carlos Gonzalez and Seth Smith. While Gonzalez has more upside, it looks like S. Smith is more MLB-ready which I’ll get into in the next article.

Carlos Gonzalez: Statistically Speaking

So the table isn’t particularly beautiful, but it is courtesy of fangraphs.com. Open Office was unstoppable in converting 5% to .050, but it’s 9am on a Saturday so we’ll wage that war at a later point in time.

Season	Team	G	AB	PA	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG
2006	DB (A+)	104	403	452	121	61	35	4	21	82	94	30	104	15	8	0.3
2006	DB (AA)	18	61	69	13	5	6	0	2	11	5	7	12	1	0	0.213
2007	DB (AA)	120	458	499	131	79	33	3	16	63	75	32	103	9	5	0.286
2007	DB (AAA)	10	42	48	13	7	5	0	1	9	11	6	6	1	0	0.31
2008	A’s (AAA)	46	173	189	49	35	9	1	4	23	28	16	35	1	1	0.283
2008	A’s	85	302	316	73	46	22	1	4	31	26	13	81	4	1	0.242
Season	Team	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP	wRC	wRAA	wOBA
2006	DB (A+)	0.069	0.258	0.29	0.356	0.563	0.919	0.263	0.36	78	16.8	0.392
2006	DB (AA)	0.103	0.197	0.58	0.294	0.41	0.704	0.197	0.234	7.8	0.4	0.328
2007	DB (AA)	0.065	0.225	0.31	0.33	0.476	0.806	0.19	0.339	69.4	9.9	0.357
2007	DB (AAA)	0.125	0.143	1	0.396	0.5	0.896	0.19	0.343	8.4	2	0.392
2008	A’s (AAA)	0.085	0.202	0.46	0.344	0.416	0.76	0.133	0.336	22.8	-2.8	0.329
2008	A’s	0.041	0.268	0.16	0.273	0.361	0.634	0.119	0.318	24.9	-13.1	0.278

The Strike-Out Rate stands out, as Gonzalez constantly puts up about 25%. It’s somewhat comical that whenever there’s a small sample size warning, Gonzalez has cut down on his K-Rate. His walk rate is atrocious for someone who strikes out that much.

We’ve almost got all of the bad out of the way:  Carlos Gonzalez swings at everything, absolutely everything.  Dave Cameron over at fangraphs put together an analysis of Cargo and his absolutely ridiculous Swing Rate, and O-Swing Rate (how often does he swing at pitches outside the zone). I really can’t praise the gentlemen over at fangraphs enough for putting together smart analysis and putting together the stats in an easily readable package.

Carlos Gonzalez in the Venezuelan Winter League: A New Hope

Carlos Gonzalez Regular Season VWL numbers:

Team	League	AVG	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	OPS
ZUL	VWL	0.292	25	89	8	26	2	0	2	14	34	11	21	1	1	0.369	0.382	0.751

MLB LINK

The 21 strike-outs in 100 PA, seems about in-line with Gonzalez’s regular numbers but an 11% BB rate is a nice improvement.  When you follow it up with his playoff numbers, we might just be on to something.

Gonzalez’s Venezuelan WL Playoff Numbers

Name	Team	POS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	TB	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG	OPS
Carlos Gonzalez	ZUL	OF	14	45	5	13	3	0	2	6	22	11	13	1	0	0.439	0.489	0.289	0.927

MLB LINK

Of course there is the requisite small sample size warning, but he walked 11 times in 14 games. Maybe Carlos is starting to come due, and understand the game?

Opportunity and Final Analysis

The Rockies starting left-fielder job is about an open a competition as there is. Currently Gonzalez is listed as the starting left-fielder, but other than Brad Hawpe in RF no-one’s assured a job. (CBS seems to have the most-updated Depth Charts, why? no-one knows)

Gonzalez could hold onto the job with a strong camp, but Major League Ready Seth Smith could also nab the job.  Matt Murton was once listed as one of the Cubs’ better prospects, so technically he’s also got a shot at the job.  If Dexter Fowler breaks camp with the starting CF job, there’s a chance that Clint Hurdle could even move Ryan Spillbroghs over to left. If Spillbroghs ends up in CF, Scott Podsednik may steal the LF job as the Rockies desperately need a lead-off hitter.

There’s probably a few more possibilities, but for the most part — those are the more likely scenarios.

I have Gonzalez listed as a top-100 OF, as odds are that he’ll break camp with the job.  We all know how hitter-friendly Coors Field is, and Gonzalez has pop.  Even if Gonzalez can get his BB-Rate up to 8 or 9 percent, it’ll make a 20 percent K-Rate more palatable.

Gonzalez has about a 75 percent chance of breaking camp with the job, and I’d imagine he’d bottom out at about 350AB.  The Rockies should be looking to shop one of their young outfielders, or veterans as the depth is nutty.

Carlos Gonzalez has the opportunity to put up top-30 OF numbers if everything goes well, but a more realistic goal is top-50.

Gonzalez is one of my favourite sleepers going into 2009, but the bust potential is massive.

If you buy Cargo’s hype, then you better have a back-up plan or at least have suitable replacements on the waiver-wire.  He could be a very nice late round gamble though as there are very few players that you can nab in the very late rounds that have the potential to put up early mid-round numbers. Most of them have already been through the ringer more than a few times and everyone in your fantasy league will know their name.

If you’re in a keeper league, regardless of Gonzalez’s Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus ratings, he’s far from a sure thing.  The risk and reward is exponentially increased when you’re dealing with Gonzalez in a dynasty-type league. Devaluing Gonzalez in a dynasty league is probably a wise move as there are safer “top prospects”.

Photo Provided By Kimberly* Flickr

Dexter Fowler – CF, OF – Colorado Rockies

Dexter Fowler – Centerfielder – Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have put together the best of both worlds with their outfield.  It’s stacked with average to above-average veterans that will do an admirable job filling in until the youngsters come due.

The depth allowed them to trade away one of the best corner-outfielders in the game, in Matt Holliday.

The Veterans: Scott Podsednik, Ryan Spillbroghs, and Brad Hawpe.

The Rookies: Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Seth Smith.

The Inbetween-ers: Matt Murton, Chris Frey, Dan Ortmeier and Matt Miller

If you wanted to put together an outfield, this is a great way to go about doing so.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, the Rockies outfield depth may negatively effect any single prospects fantasy value.

Dexter Fowler — Center-field-prospect-extraordinare.

Baseball Prospectus, which I generally always use as my starting point, just released their 2009 top prospect rankings/ratings.  Fowler comes in at an improved 12th overall. Sandwiched between two uber-prospects in the Marlins organization, Cameron Maybin and Mike Stanton.

SKILLS AND STATS:

When scouts draw up a five-tool player, they draw up guys like Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones before he turned on the suck-switch.  These are the type of players that the scouts have compared Fowler to.  Defense doesn’t convert to fantasy value, so we’ll just huck that out.  While this probably lowers Fowler on the prospect list, he’s still a switch-hitting baller with speed to spare.

Much like Cameron Maybin, Fowler can steal a shit-tonne of bases if he’s given the opportunity.  The Raw speed isn’t in question — He does however need to work on his base running skills.  Luckily, getting caught stealing isn’t a negative in fantasy baseball.  The Rockies let Willy Tavares go, because even at such a young age Fowler can do everything that Tavares could.

At this point, Fowler’s power is still pretty raw and his ceiling is probably about 12-15 HR given a full-time gig.  Eventually Fowler will top out about 20 HR potential, which is just dandy for your lead-off man.  Fowler seems to understand that he’s being groomed for the CF-gig and has been using his power to pound doubles, rather than whack home-runs.

A quick note on Fowler’s picking up switch-hitting after an entire amateur career of only hitting from one side of the plate: WOW.  He’s kept his lefty-average over .275 which is darn impressive. The Gents over at baseball-intellect.com put together a nice piece on Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin — just remember, it was put together at the start of 2008 prior to Fowler’s ridiculous .946 OPS bounce-back season.

His Strike-Out Rate is a bit concerning, although he did improve on his 26% High-A rate posting a respectable 20% K-Rate in AA last year. A minor league BB-Rate of between 10-15 percent keeps his OBP at a very solid .400+

Forget about 2007, as 2006 and 2008 appear to be the real Dexter Fowler.

Opportunity

Looking at the remainder of the Rockies line-up, there’s really no typical lead-off hitter.  If Fowler gets the job, he’ll almost certainly lead the line-up off — which will result in a whole hoot of a lot of RUN opportunities.

Clint Barmes and Willy Tavares spent the majority of 2008 atop the Rockies line-up, and Tavares is in Cincinnati and Barmes may lose his job to Ian Stewart who is about as far from a lead-off hitter as you can get.

Right now, it’s looking like the Rockies can either lead off with Spillbroghs or Fowler and it’ll be interesting to see how it pans out.

Maybe Seth Smith is more Major League ready at this point, but he’s not a lead-off hitter.  Carlos Gonzalez is still swinging at everything, and striking out too much — which is unfortunate.

Watch Fowler in the pre-season, as he could use at least a few months in Triple-A.  Unfortunately with the depth the Rockies have in the OF, a slump may relegate Fowler to the minors for a few months of seasoning.

Conclusion

If you’re in a deep league, consider Fowler. His upside is equal to that of Cameron Maybin who’s been flying off draft-boards.  A slump is almost inevitable, and impatient owners will more than likely drop him. If you can afford the roster-spot, he’s definitely worth the gamble.  Even with limited at-bats in 2009, he’ll produce in at least the stolen base category.

Maybe Fowler isn’t worth a starting spot in your line-up at this point, but he should be the first guy off your bench.

Buy the Hype.

Even if he doesn’t make the club out of camp, he’s worth rostering in a 5-6 OF 12 team league, or your first, possibly second, bench spot on a 14 team 4-OF league. It’ll be an interesting fight between Gonzalez, Smith and Fowler.

The Braves Outfield: Bland or Boner-rif-ic?

Right now, it looks like the Braves outfield may shape up with Brandon Jones in left-field, Gregor M. Blanco in centre-field, and Jeff Franceour in right-field.

This line-up is boring, and bland, and while not quite worthless — it’s close.

The Braves have some Minor League Depth, though.  Potential above-average to all-star category depth.  Whether or not they’re ready, is up for debate.  I choose, no.  However, an outfield with Jordan Schafer and Jason Heyward would be interesting, and it would remove some boring from the Braves.

Even if the Braves go with the speedy Josh Anderson in center-field, it’s still boring. A fast boring, where you can snag a potential 30SB, but boring none the less.

Jordan Schafer

Hopefully Schafer has a kill-list carved into his locker with a hunting knife, and whoever snitched on him for taking HGH is on that list.  He could eventually be making 8-million dollars a year, and that can buy a lot of killing.

The whole story is here, and here. Schafer served his 50 game suspension, and hopefully stopped taking the juice.

In almost 300AB in AA last year, Schafer manned-up and put up a solid .850 OPS consisting of a .378 OBP, .471 SLG, and a .269 average.

The whole 30% K-rate isn’t pretty but its:

1. a five percent jump from previous years
2. not that bad when you consider he has a solid 14.2% walk rate

Schafer’s a solid prospect, and he probably wont hit the big-time this year.  He’ll more than likely start out in AA, and spend a good 2/3 of the season in AAA.  I’m no Braves insider, so by all means, this is a guess based on a somewhat functional brain.

If for some screwy reason, Schafer gets the call.  He’ll at least be fun to watch.  He looks like he’s about 13 years old, and it’d be great to see him bootin’ around in CF. His defense is probably Major League ready.

Schafer is still one of the top-10 CF prospects in the game, generally ranking somewhere between hype-machine-darling Austin Jackson, and Dominic Brown.

If Jordan Schafer ever gets a call-up, he’ll really only have to bat .235-.240 so long as he walks, and plays spectacular D.

Maybe he’ll steal a bunch of bases for you, and get caught a bunch of times.

Actually, maybe Schafer gets the call if the Braves aging-aging-aged pitching staff sucks it up, and they’re out of the pennant race by August.

Jason Heyward

Probably the Braves best prospect.  More than probably, almost certainly.

Heyward’s a top 10 prospect in baseball, and arguably the best corner-outfield prospect in baseball.

Heyward is young, born in ‘89. I have socks that old. He managed to get a couple of High A games into his 2008 season, and he probably needs at least one more full year to shoot through the Minors.

BUT…Travis Snider, who’s all kind of awesome and generally located right below Heyward on all of the Corner Outfield lists, started out last year in High A.  He then proceeded to tear up every league and end up in the bigs.

Heyward is certainly capable of such things.

I’m not really going to massage Heyward’s stats too much, but he’s got pop, an eye, and is a solid contact hitter.  He’s got a solid enough arm to play right field, and can boogy around the field stealing 15 bases in 120 Games.

Right now, the Atlanta Braves are boring but will probably get it done with their Shiny-Brand-New Pitching Staff.

If somehow, they bring the suck, then these two prospects have a shot at some late season action.

Generally, I think that rushing great players is stupid-silly but sometimes you just gotta let the kids play.  The Braves have a shot at the post-season, but they also have a shot of bringing the suck as all of their new toys get broken in the first month of the season.

Jeff Samardzija – Starting Pitcher – Chicago Cubs

At 6′5 / 218lbs with good body control, Samardzija should be a solid jump-ball artist and red-zone target at the next level. Samardzija is your prototypical possession receiver, and gets a solid release off the line.

..wait, Samardzija picked the Cubs instead of the NFL? I guess that makes sense when you run a 4.62 / 40 Yd Dash.  It worked out for Drew Henson, right?

Stat time! Read more

Elvis Andrus – Shortstop (SS) – Texas Rangers

Elvis Andrus, welcome to the hype machine!

The Texas Rangers’ Elvis Andrus is penciled in as the starting shortstop for 2009.  Recently the Rangers went about grabbing some insurance, in an incredibly wise move, by acquiring Omar Vizquel.  While most fantasy owners hate the idea of “insurance”, this was a great move for a offense-heavy Rangers squad.

Obviously, fantasy owners want Andrus to play the whole year while taking very few days off. However, Andrus is young and is bound to go through slumps so Vizquel will get his fair share of AB throughout the season, even if Andrus wins ROY.

What makes Andrus a safer bet than most young prospects is his defensive ability. Andrus’ defense is off the charts, not just with the glove either. Elvis Andrus also has quite the arm for a 6 footer that weighs in at 185. Vizquel can only help Andrus with positioning, and the infinite minutia involved with being a perennial gold-glover.  Even if Andrus struggles at the plate, his defense should keep him around the bigs.

Here’s what you’re getting with Elvis Andrus:

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
2005	R-Danville	6	18	3	5	1	0	0	1	4	4	1	0	.409	.333	.278
2005	R-Braves	46	166	26	49	6	1	3	20	19	28	7	4	.377	.398	.295
2006	A-Rome	111	437	67	116	25	4	3	50	36	91	23	15	.324	.362	.265
2007	A-Bakersfield	27	110	19	33	2	0	2	12	10	19	15	8	.369	.373	.300
2007	A-Myrtle Bch	99	385	59	94	20	3	3	37	44	88	25	7	.330	.335	.244
Total		289	1116	174	297	54	8	11	120	113	230	71	34	.337	.358	.266
2008	AA-Frisco	71	292	50	87	9	2	1	38	22	59	33	11	.356	.353	.298

Obviously, the first thing that stands out about Elvis Andrus are the stolen bases. Andrus’ falls into the category of crazy-fast, yet not so swell on the basepaths — yet.

The rate at which Andrus has been getting nabbed isn’t exactly reassuring. Prior to 2008, Andrus was getting nailed about 1/3 of the time. Last year, in 2008, he reduced it to 1/4 of the time. Teams can live with a 75% success rate.

So how will Andrus effect your fantasy squad? Well, he’s a future lead-off hitter, and he could snag that spot as soon as this year. He’d need to keep his average around .280 and his OBP at least around .350 for a lead-off gig to make sense. He’s much more likely to be batting at the end of the order, which may allow him to steal more often.

A Possibility: the Rangers’ line-up goes Andrus, Kinsler, Young, Hamilton, Davis.

I love Hamilton as a number three hitter, but with Bradley gone it may be beneficial to have Young and his declining skill-set batting third.  If Andrus bats ahead of Kinsler and that crew, his potential is limitless.  He’ll score a ridiculous amount of runs, and more than likely steal anywhere from 20-30 bases.

A Different Possibility: Andrus bats 7th, 8th, or 9th.

While his runs scored will definitely diminish, there’s really no harm in batting in this spot.  Cruz and Murphy are both solid players, and Salty or Teagarden should be able to get it done this year.  If Andrus bats at the rear of the line-up he’ll be on base for Kinsler.  While I love Kinsler’s OBP in the leadoff spot, his gap-power may be better served as the second or third hitter.

If Andrus does bat at the ass end of the line-up, expect about 15 fewer runs and about 5-10 fewer RBI.  The bonus with this is, he’ll easily clear 30 SB. If Andrus gets on base with two out, it makes sense at least in my mind to let him fly.  If Andrus gets to second, a single from Kinsler scores him.  If Andrus gets nabbed, Kinsler leads off the next inning.

The Bottom Line: Andrus has to improve on his success rate, but the stolen base potential is there.  His defense will keep him playing often enough to justify the hype. Like all 20-year olds, there’s going to be some growing pains.

Verdict: Feed the Hype Machine.

Rangers Photo Courtesy of Mandolux / Flickr

All Rookie Team: Sleepers and Sure Things.

Top Prospects at Catchers

Matt Wieters – Baltimore Orioles

Matt Wieters is far and away the best of the bunch, and should contribute early and often.  He’s worth a roster-spot in any format, and should bring plenty of everything to your fantasy squad. There’s been plenty of peeps comparing Matt Wieters to Joe Mauer + power.

What this means for people who are bad with addition and maths in general  is: Matt Wieters has a very sweet swing, a swing that you show in hitting clinics and can punish the ball. He’s got a superior eye, a major league ready eye, and the patience to go with it.

Of course, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Wieters prioritize one of his skills over the others, depending on coaching. Wieters could take the Joe Mauer route, and rely solely on his eye/patience and become a .320 hitter each and every year. In College, A+ and AA ball, Matt Wieters didn’t hit lower than .345.

Wieters could also sacrafice a few points in average, to become one of the best power-hitting catchers — ever.  It wouldn’t surprise me for Wieters to hit 25 Home Runs every year that he stays healthy.  At 6′4, 225lbs, the potential for a switch to first base after a few years is a definite possibility. I guess it all relies on whether or not his back holds up.