The Hype Machine

MSG’s The Lineup

MSG Network  is searching for the most overrated best New York based players of all time and you can help them by jacking off the egos of New Yorkers logging on and voting over at MSG.com

Titling the program The Most Overrated Players Of All Time probably wouldn’t appeal to viewers of the MSG Network, so they went with The Lineup.

The Lineup airs on Tuesdays at 10:30 PM, with the next episode airing on the 27th of April.

Speaking of which, my lone encounter with the MSG Network was catching a Canadian Football League game — Huzzah!  As a Canadian, I love the utter insanity that occurs prior to the snap of the ball in the CFL.  In the NFL, players can move parallel to the line of scrimmage, but any forward movement is a penalty.  In the CFL, wide-receivers (there are generally 5 to 6 of them) assault the line of scrimmage like a disobedient wife.

The LineUp has actually assembled a pretty knowledgeable panel:

Will Leitch made DeadSpin — This is Good.

God Save the Fan was also pretty decent book.  Leitch writes for New York magazine and contributes to the harem of go-to media sluts for any self-indulgent, self-loving, self-pleasuring male:  The New  York Times, GQ and Slate.

Steve Hirdt, the executive vice-president of Elias Sports Bureau, also contributes along with Sparky Lyle.

All of this goodness gets destroyed with the inclusion of Grade-A Jackass, Gary Carter.

In addition to this, MSG has apparently discovered the internetz.  They’ll be giving away free shit in their interactive fantasy game.

When I think of interactive fantasy games, I think some of pretty kinky shit.  I’d imagine there would be Donuts, Maple Syrup, Glory Holes and Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders somewhere in this game.

By playing such a lovely game, you can win terrific prizes:

Doc Gooden signed eightball baseball, anyone?  Memorabilia from Mattingly, Torre, Jackson or Jeter?

Speaking of which, if anyone ever wants anything pimped, share it.  I’ll drive your sales up at least 75% — I promise.  The best part, I charge absolutely nothing.

Into The Hype-Machine, With Jordan Zimmermann!

Jordan Zimmermann, born in the year 1986, is a wonderful young pitching prospect in the Nationals organization.  He’s arguably their best pitching prospect, and he’s definitely the most major league ready of the bunch — or some combination of both.

Zimmermann appears to have the inside track on the fourth spot in the rotation, as he continues to battle with Collin Balester and Shairon Martis. Martis appears to be the odd man out, regardless of his sparkling 1.42 Spring ERA.

Up until last Saturday, Zimmermann had dominated Spring Training for the Nats, feeding the hype machine much needed complex carbohydrates. At which point, the St. Louis Cardinals beat the living pulp out of him, for 5 runs in 2 innings. Afterwards, Zimmermann did something astonishing, something so warranted of praise that I’ll type it in bold and italics: Zimmermann manned-the-fuck up.

Zimmermann refused to make excuses for his poor performance, although the excuses were there. There’s absolutely nothing I hate more than watching a player decide he’s healthy enough to play, but also sick enough to make excuses if he fails.

Tangent Time:

Last night’s Syracuse / Oklahoma game definitely resulted in plenty of curse words being hurled at the television.  Jonny Flynn who was hurt enough to limp around like a 3-legged dog on defense, was also healthy enough to dribble-drive and fly by Oklahoma defenders for easy lay-ups.  Watching Flynn limp around right before jumping in front of a pass was about as irritating as a case of crabs.

Hey, did you see the HAIR on Blake Griffin’s mother? Jesus Christ, Lord Allmighty! That is some big hair. The side-view really doesn’t do it’s fullness justice.

Furthermore, BAM! Watching Griffin hit his head on the backboard after schooling the Orangemen and Flynn on how to successfully dunk, was uh-may-zing.

If only Wake Forrest didn’t shit the bed, my bracket would be pretty gosh darn solid at this point.

End of Tangent Time

Zimmermann’s spring numbers have been just as uh-may-zing as Griffin’s dunk: 20 Strikeouts to 2 Walks in 14 innings pitched while not allowing an earned run outside of that St. Louis fiasco.

Drafted in the second round (67th overall) of the 2007 draft,  Zimmermann ranks as the Nationals’ number 1 prospect heading into 2009, that’s after he ranked #7 in 2008.

Zimmermann dominated the early minors posting 103 strike-outs in 106.1 IP in AA last year. Throw in his 1.20-WHIP and 3.20-ERA and we’ve got ourselves a legitimate phenom. Zimmermann’s low-minors numbers are even more jaw-dropping as he posted 12K-per-9 in low-A, and 10K-per-9 in high-A. Zimmermann does all this while only walking about 3 batters per 9.

Zimmermann’s Arsenal:

1. 90-94mph heater, with decent movement.
2. low-90′s sinker
3. over-the-top curveball
4. work-in-progress change
5. decent to good slider

Courtesy of Yahoo, Manny Acta loves the kid:

He’s quite impressive. He attacks the strike zone. He had a very sharp slider today. For those guys that haven’t seen him, they struggled with that slider. He locked up a couple good hitters in that lineup…We’ve got three weeks to go. If he doesn’t get anybody out from here to the last day of the season, then I’m going to have to eat my words if I put him in the rotation today. We’re going to make the decision on whether it’s going to be the best for him or for us. Right now, it looks like it will be the best thing for us.

What’s In Store For Zimmermann?

Well, it looks like he has his roster spot pretty much locked up.  He dominated this past Thursday against Triple-A Round Rock. Anything could potentially happen, but Zimmermann should probably get to 150 IP one way or another this year.  Unless the remainder of the Nats rotation massively exceeds expectations, they probably won’t be in the play-off picture past July.  This’ll lead to the Nats doing the wise thing, and carefully treading these dangerous waters with Zimmermann.

It’s really not that hard to ruin a top-tier pitching prospect, and while it generally takes a little bit of help from the kid; you can probably name at least 10 pitchers whose development was delayed by early missuse/overused.

However, if Lannan, Olsen, and Cabrera exceed expectations, there’s no reason why the Nats couldn’t contend for a playoff spot which would probably push Zimmermann’s numbers up towards the 180 IP mark. Zimmermann did pitch about 135 innings between Single and Double A last year, so 180-190 isn’t a massive stretch.

Brad Evans over at Yahoo Fantasy Sports has Zimmermann pegged for 135 IP, 8 W, 4.34 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 101 K which seems like a conservative but fair estimate.

The Projection Models aren’t nearly as kind to Zimmermann. ZiPS has him getting 131IP, 4.81-ERA, 1.47-WHIP, to go with 88 Ks. Things get even worse with CHONE, to the tune of: 82IP, 5.05-ERA, 1.55-WHIP, and 69Ks.

Conclusion of Sorts

Just because you draft Jordan Zimmermann doesn’t mean you have to keep him the entire year.  Yahoo’s assessment that he’ll Cueto the situation is pretty on-point.  I see Zimmermann having a slightly better ERA throughout the season, as Cincinnati is probably the last place you’d want a youngin’ to pitch this side of the Mississippi — Just ask Homer Bailey.

Zimmermann should dominate in his first month or so, and a mid-threes ERA isn’t out of the question.  His K-Rate will probably fall in the 7 to 7.5-per-9 range, with a whip of around 1.30ish.

After the first three or four starts is when the fun will begin. Zimmermann’s definitely got low-4′s ERA potential in him to go along with a 1.35ish WHIP.  A Solid 7K-per-9, and about 3.5BB-per-9, should keep him around the talented rookie standard of 2K-per-BB.

In shallow leagues where you can replace Zimmermann with a competant pitcher, by all means draft him for his upside.  In deep leagues where you’re looking at replacing Zimmermann with someone that pitches for the Seattle Mariners, I’d hedge my bets by picking an innings eater.

Zimmerman projects out as a solid number-2 or spectacular number-3 guy, in just about any rotation — for you keeper league guys.  Gil Meche-ish? Yah, I’m going with Gil-Meche-ish.

Just like Meche, Zimmerman is probably going to have to throw his slider and risk injury to remain a dominant strike-out pitcher.  The knock on Zimmerman is no out-pitch, but he clearly has one and it’s his slider — The Nats just don’t want him using it all the time as they’d prefer he avoid the fate of Gil Meche and his two rotator cuff surgeries.

Evan Longoria, The Hype Machine.

The hype-machine would like to welcome your reigning American League Rookie of the Year and member of the American League Champion Tampa Bay Rays, Sir Evan Longoria.

Longoria seems to have his head on right, and is definitely one of the nicer guys around the league.  Always taking time to chat with fans, sign autographs, and generally remain in high spirits.  There is however, a whole lot of weight on his shoulders this year.  There’s going to be a lot of pressure on Longoria and the Rays to repeat their unbelievable, unexpected, unpredicted, unprecedented success in 2008.

The question is: Will They Live Up To The Hype
As a Reference Point, here’s our Evan Longoria Fantasy Stat Index

YR	LVL	AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS	BABIP
2006	(A-)	33	4	5	11	1	0.424	13.20%	15.20%	1	0.487	0.879	1.366	0.417
2006	(A+)	110	8	22	28	1	0.327	10.60%	17.30%	0.68	0.402	0.618	1.02	0.337
2006	(AA)	105	6	14	19	2	0.267	0.90%	19.00%	0.05	0.266	0.486	0.752	0.278
2007	(AA)	381	21	78	76	4	0.307	11.80%	21.30%	0.63	0.403	0.528	0.93	0.344
2007	(AAA)	104	5	19	19	0	0.269	17.50%	27.90%	0.76	0.398	0.49	0.889	0.329
2008	(AAA)	25	0	2	1	0	0.2	13.80%	20.00%	0.8	0.333	0.2	0.533	0.25
2008	Rays	448	27	67	85	7	0.272	9.30%	27.20%	0.38	0.343	0.531	0.874	0.318
2009	BILLJ	599	37	102	116	9	0.28	10.30%	23.70%	0.49	0.358	0.534	0.892	0.312
2009	CHONE	452	22	71	80	5	0.265	10.10%	25.00%	0.45	0.346	0.476	0.822	0.309
2009	Marcel	400	21	60	71	7	0.28	9.50%	24.00%	0.44	0.351	0.515	0.866	0.322
2009	Oliver	475	24				0.272	8.70%	23.40%	0.41	0.339	0.486	0.825	0.309
2009	ZiPS	515	28	78	91	6	0.264	9.80%	23.70%	0.46	0.342	0.489	0.831	0.296

Longoria has been on the fast track to the big leagues since he was drafted 3rd overall way back in the year 2006.  Longoria was generally considered the best hitter of the bunch and the scouts raved about how quick his hands were.

After last years’ rookie of the year campaign, it appears as though nothing has changed.  Longoria is still very quick through the zone, and has the ability to adjust quickly.

The question fantasy owners want answered is whether or not Evan Longoria will IMPROVE upon last years’ numbers. The odd thing about fantasy drafts is that young players are always projected to improve in the eyes of fantasy owners, while projection models almost always predict a slight regression in the non-counting stats.

The first thing required to guestimate the chance of improvement is Longoria’s ABs.  Longoria started out 2008 in AAA, and after posting mediocre numbers, he got the call.  Some wonder why the Rays even bothered to send him down for 25 AB, but to each his own.

Longoria logged 448 at-bats in 2008, and missed games due to his minor league stint and late season injuries. Longoria broke his left wrist during the dog-days of August, but made it back for the playoffs where everything seemed fine.

Bill James’ Projection Model comes the closest to predicting a full-season for Longoria, at 599AB.  As there appeared to be no lasting effects from the wrist injury, there’s no reason to assume that Longoria won’t play a full season. BJ’s robot also predicts a slight increase in batting average, which brings us to this stat line: 37HR/102R/116RBI/9SB/.280 average.

This is bringing us awful close to David Wright territory (32HR, 112R,119RBI,17SB, .309AVG) and it’s definitely putting Longoria somewhere between tier-1 and tier-2.  A-Rod’s injury currently leaves tier-1 with a single occupant, David Wright. Longoria’s projected line bests Aramis Ramirez’s, and with Chipper’s injury concerns – Is Longoria the second best 3rd Basemen out there?

What’s Keeping Longoria From Being Great

Of the ELITE third basemen (Rodriguez, Wright, Chipper, Ramirez and Longoria,) Longoria stood out in a couple categories, bad categories; strike-out and walk percentage, which we’ll combine into BB:K.

O-SW is O-Swing, or Swing Percentage Outside the zone.  Z-SW is swings within the zone, and SW is total Swing percentage.  CON is contact percentage, with the same sub-categories.

Name	BB%	K%	BB/K	O-SW%	Z-SW%	SW%	O-CON%	Z-CON%	CON%
Alex Rodriguez	11.30%	22.90%	0.56	22.90%	68.00%	46.10%	51.60%	83.50%	75.80%
Aramis Ramirez	11.80%	17.00%	0.79	26.20%	70.10%	48.00%	60.40%	87.80%	80.30%
Chipper Jones	17.00%	13.90%	1.48	15.20%	67.20%	40.10%	65.10%	87.00%	82.70%
David Wright	13.10%	18.80%	0.8	21.90%	69.60%	45.20%	64.80%	89.50%	83.40%
Evan Longoria	9.30%	27.20%	0.38	26.50%	66.40%	46.70%	58.10%	83.50%	76.40%

So here’s our problem: Longoria walks the least and strikes-out the most, giving him a tolerable but not preferable BB/K ratio. Normally we see these numbers with pure power hitters rather than someone who projects more in the David Wright mold.

Longoria also swings the most often at pitches outside the zone, and swings the least at pitches inside the zone.  His low Z-Swing percentage artificially lowers his actual Swing percentage.    When it comes to plate discipline, we’re talking more Aramis Ramirez than David Wright or Chipper Jones.

Considering Longoria has the “worst” eye of the bunch, you’d assume he’d make up for it with his quick wrists but his contact rate floats around Alex Rodriguez who’s far more of a pure power hitter.

I’m hesitant to overly criticize Longoria because different players make different approaches work, and a year from now maybe we’ll be comparing the freshest face with Longoria’s approach.  However, these numbers are troublesome until we actually know what Longoria is: a pure-power hitter, a doubles-machine that hits 35HR a year, or a patient hitter that capitalizes on mistakes.

The good news is that we should expect improvement in all of these fields as Longoria gains experience and matures as a hitter. The bad news is that if Longoria hasn’t made strides during the off-season to curb these bad habits, pitchers will adapt.  This is why so many talented rookies experience the dreaded sophomore slump.

Conclusion:

According to ESPN, Evan Longoria is coming off the board as the second third basemen drafted but he’s nearly 21 positions below David Wright who averages the 4th overall draft spot, or the third player chosen. Overall this puts Longoria somewhere in the neighborhood of Prince Fielder, Carlos Beltran and Matt Holliday.

It’s tough to price Longoria out at this spot, as both Holliday and Beltran run and Fielder plays first base. Alex Rodriguez is going off the board in around the same spot but with his recent injury woes, we can’t exactly judge Longoria against A-Rod either.

However, it’s fairly clear that Longoria’s draft spot reflects a common view that not only will Longoria will play a full season, he’ll also improve.  This is not a stance I’d be willing to take, so long as you can get Youkilis 10 picks later, Ramirez 16 Picks later, and Chipper Jones nearly 30 picks later.  After the elite players there’s a plethora of high-risk / high-reward players that run almost 25 deep.

Evan Longoria has a decent shot of meeting these lofty expectations, but I can’t recommend buying into the hype.  As with any young player, there are going to be some ups and downs and the Tampa Bay Rays will undoubtedly come back down to earth which’ll lower Longoria’s Rib-Eyes and Runs.

If Longoria stole 20 Bases, or hit .300, both of which he theoretically COULD do — it’d be a different ball-game.  But as a .280 hitter that doesn’t run that much, 25th overall or the end of the second round is just too high.

Instead, take a risk on Edwin Encarnacion or Chris Davis that could realistically put up very similar numbers at a much cheaper price. Davis does however suffer from all of the strike-out, contact, and plate discipline problems that may plague Longoria.

Photo's Courtesy Of Keith Allison - Flickr

The Hype Machine Eats Mat Gamel – 3B – Brew Crew

Mat Gamel, The Heir Apparent? The Next Ryan Braun?

As a 23 year old, Gamel’s not quite to the point where he’s too old for Double-A but he’s getting close. For all you perverts out there, 23 in double-A is like 23 in women’s tennis: they just aren’t as sexy anymore.

In 2008, Gamel managed to grab a cup of coffee in both triple-A (5 Games) and the Show (2 Games). The sample size is obviously far too small for any reasonable analysis, however striking out 10 times in 21 AB in AAA leads me to believe he is indeed a human, and may have been pressing.

How Did Gamel Fair in AA? (Ryan Braun Mashed in Double-A and turned into an all-star. Sound Logic, Right?)

The internet’s ablaze with comparisons between Ryan Braun and Mat Gamel, all because they mashed AA pitching while proving that the mantra “No Glove, No Love” applies to players not just named, Roberto Alomar.

Thanks to The Baseball Cube, we can compare their Minor League statistics:

Player Name	Stat Type	Bavg	Obp	Slg	OPS	G	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	HR	2B	R	RBI	SB
Ryan Braun	MLB	.301	.350	.588	938	264	1062	183	320	65	13	71	203	29	9	71	241	0.27	0.25	0.69	0.77	0.11
Mat Gamel	MLB	.500	.500	1.000	1500	2	2	0	1	1	0	0	0	0	0	0	1	0.00	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00
Ryan Braun	Minor	.313	.375	.572	947	199	767	131	240	61	6	42	144	34	12	69	151	0.21	0.31	0.66	0.72	0.17
Mat Gamel	Minor	.305	.375	.489	864	447	1710	278	522	115	22	52	285	36	20	184	358	0.12	0.26	0.62	0.64	0.08

Statistics obviously, courtesy of the baseball cube.

Gamel’s played more games in this chart, as I haven’t included Ryan Braun’s college career. With that said, it’s pretty clear to see that Ryan Braun put up superior power and speed numbers than Mat Gamel.   With that said however, lets take a look at the Double-A seasons each had as a 22-year old:

Braun’s Line: .303 AVG/.367 OBP/.589 SLG / .956 OPS which translated into 15 HR in 59 Games.  You also must remember Braun spent 59 Games in High-A ball prior to being called up to Double-A in 2006.

Gamel’s Line: .329 AVG / .395 OBP / .537 SLG / .932 OPS which translated into 19HR in 127 G.

It’s fairly clear that Mat Gamel is lagging behind Ryan Braun in the power department, but not that far. It would be wise to assume, that like Braun, Gamel would start 2009 out in Triple-A.

So Gamel’s Got The Stick, What’s Stopping Him From Being TEH AWESOME?!

Right now, it appears as though Hall will break camp with the starting third base gig.  The Brewers have a back-up plan in Mike Lamb and Craig Counsell, both of which are proven commodities. So how badly will Bill Hall have to shit the bed, and how great will Gamel have to be?

When Ryan Braun got called up, he was slugging at a .700 clip in AAA.  If Gamel does this, he’ll get called up regardless of whether or not Hall finds his stroke.  Realistically, Gamel won’t do this because he is not one of the chosen people. If Gamel can maintain his current production against Triple-A pitching, he should be fine. It’s generally said that Double-A, and your adjustment to Double-A, is the make or break portion of your MiLB career.

It would serve Mat Gamel well to cut down on his near 21% K rate, but a 10% BB rate helps the medicine go down a bit easier. When Gamel’s doubles power translate into big league home run power, he’ll be dangerous.

Bill James’ robot has Gamel coming in at 150 Games in the 2009 season, which seems a bit ridiculous. Here’s the full-line:

150 Games, 539 AB, 35Doubles, 18 HR, 87 R, 89RBI, .302 AVG, 8 SB. 23.6 K%, 8.8 BB% and an OBP of .364.

Bill James is a brighter man than I, but these numbers seem a bit ridiculous; especially when you consider his projection model has Bill Hall down for 418 AB.

The Defense, It’s Always the Defense.

Gamel’s defense is awful, and while he’s improving, it’s a stretch to say that he’ll develop into even a below average third baseman.

Every Article written on Gamel explains why his defense is awful:

Fangraphs: It’s Almost Gamel Time

Diamond Cutter: Gamel’s Scouting Report

Sportsbubbler: Gamel #3 Brewers Prospect

Minorleagueball: Gamel, Again.

Hardballtimes: Yah, It’s Bad

Conclusion:

If Gamel gets called up, he’ll play.  The Brewers won’t call him up simply to sit on the bench while he could be refining his glove-work in Triple-A.

The problem is whether or not Gamel will get the call.  At this point, there’s no way he could step into the starting third base role without massive improvements over the winter and first month or two of the MiLB season.

If someone goes down in the outfield, definitely pounce.

If you’re sitting around watching a Brewers game and Ryan Braun starts taking grounders at third again, definitely pounce.

I’m just not sure that Gamel gets reps at third even if Hall plays terribly.

I don’t think I’d draft Gamel, but I’d definitely be the first guy on a WW claim for him because as I said, if he gets the call — he’ll play.

Dexter Fowler – CF, OF – Colorado Rockies

Dexter Fowler – Centerfielder – Colorado Rockies

The Rockies have put together the best of both worlds with their outfield.  It’s stacked with average to above-average veterans that will do an admirable job filling in until the youngsters come due.

The depth allowed them to trade away one of the best corner-outfielders in the game, in Matt Holliday.

The Veterans: Scott Podsednik, Ryan Spillbroghs, and Brad Hawpe.

The Rookies: Carlos Gonzalez, Dexter Fowler, and Seth Smith.

The Inbetween-ers: Matt Murton, Chris Frey, Dan Ortmeier and Matt Miller

If you wanted to put together an outfield, this is a great way to go about doing so.  Unfortunately for fantasy owners, the Rockies outfield depth may negatively effect any single prospects fantasy value.

Dexter Fowler — Center-field-prospect-extraordinare.

Baseball Prospectus, which I generally always use as my starting point, just released their 2009 top prospect rankings/ratings.  Fowler comes in at an improved 12th overall. Sandwiched between two uber-prospects in the Marlins organization, Cameron Maybin and Mike Stanton.

SKILLS AND STATS:

When scouts draw up a five-tool player, they draw up guys like Torii Hunter and Andruw Jones before he turned on the suck-switch.  These are the type of players that the scouts have compared Fowler to.  Defense doesn’t convert to fantasy value, so we’ll just huck that out.  While this probably lowers Fowler on the prospect list, he’s still a switch-hitting baller with speed to spare.

Much like Cameron Maybin, Fowler can steal a shit-tonne of bases if he’s given the opportunity.  The Raw speed isn’t in question — He does however need to work on his base running skills.  Luckily, getting caught stealing isn’t a negative in fantasy baseball.  The Rockies let Willy Tavares go, because even at such a young age Fowler can do everything that Tavares could.

At this point, Fowler’s power is still pretty raw and his ceiling is probably about 12-15 HR given a full-time gig.  Eventually Fowler will top out about 20 HR potential, which is just dandy for your lead-off man.  Fowler seems to understand that he’s being groomed for the CF-gig and has been using his power to pound doubles, rather than whack home-runs.

A quick note on Fowler’s picking up switch-hitting after an entire amateur career of only hitting from one side of the plate: WOW.  He’s kept his lefty-average over .275 which is darn impressive. The Gents over at baseball-intellect.com put together a nice piece on Fowler vs. Tyler Colvin — just remember, it was put together at the start of 2008 prior to Fowler’s ridiculous .946 OPS bounce-back season.

His Strike-Out Rate is a bit concerning, although he did improve on his 26% High-A rate posting a respectable 20% K-Rate in AA last year. A minor league BB-Rate of between 10-15 percent keeps his OBP at a very solid .400+

Forget about 2007, as 2006 and 2008 appear to be the real Dexter Fowler.

Opportunity

Looking at the remainder of the Rockies line-up, there’s really no typical lead-off hitter.  If Fowler gets the job, he’ll almost certainly lead the line-up off — which will result in a whole hoot of a lot of RUN opportunities.

Clint Barmes and Willy Tavares spent the majority of 2008 atop the Rockies line-up, and Tavares is in Cincinnati and Barmes may lose his job to Ian Stewart who is about as far from a lead-off hitter as you can get.

Right now, it’s looking like the Rockies can either lead off with Spillbroghs or Fowler and it’ll be interesting to see how it pans out.

Maybe Seth Smith is more Major League ready at this point, but he’s not a lead-off hitter.  Carlos Gonzalez is still swinging at everything, and striking out too much — which is unfortunate.

Watch Fowler in the pre-season, as he could use at least a few months in Triple-A.  Unfortunately with the depth the Rockies have in the OF, a slump may relegate Fowler to the minors for a few months of seasoning.

Conclusion

If you’re in a deep league, consider Fowler. His upside is equal to that of Cameron Maybin who’s been flying off draft-boards.  A slump is almost inevitable, and impatient owners will more than likely drop him. If you can afford the roster-spot, he’s definitely worth the gamble.  Even with limited at-bats in 2009, he’ll produce in at least the stolen base category.

Maybe Fowler isn’t worth a starting spot in your line-up at this point, but he should be the first guy off your bench.

Buy the Hype.

Even if he doesn’t make the club out of camp, he’s worth rostering in a 5-6 OF 12 team league, or your first, possibly second, bench spot on a 14 team 4-OF league. It’ll be an interesting fight between Gonzalez, Smith and Fowler.

A.J. Burnett – Starting Pitcher (SP) – New York Yankees

Determining Burnett’s fantasy value heading into 2009 is akin to flipping a coin, with heads being a healthy 200IP and tails being less than 100IP.

Now, a brief A.J. Burnett time-line (Courtesy of Canada’s Third-Most Awesome Sports Channel):

Dec 18, 2008: Signed as a free agent by the New York Yankees to a five-year contract.
Nov 5, 2008: Filed for free agency.
Sep 25, 2007: Missed 1 game (personal reasons).
Sep 24, 2007: Personal reasons, day-to-day.
Aug 12, 2007: Missed 35 games (right shoulder injury).
Jul 1, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 29).
Jun 28, 2007: Missed 13 games (right shoulder injury).
Jun 19, 2007: Right shoulder injury, 15-day DL (retroactive to June 13th).
Jun 13, 2007: Right shoulder injury, day-to-day.
Jun 22, 2006: Missed 69 games (right elbow injury).
May 29, 2006: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow injury).
Apr 22, 2006: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Apr 15, 2006: Missed 10 games (elbow injury).
Apr 1, 2006: Elbow injury, 15-day DL.
Dec 6, 2005: Signed as a free agent by the Toronto Blue Jays to a five-year contract.
Oct 27, 2005: Filed for free agency.
May 31, 2005: Missed 9 games (elbow injury).
May 23, 2005: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jan 17, 2005: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Oct 3, 2004: Missed 19 game (elbow injury).
Sep 19, 2004: Elbow injury, day-to-day.
Jun 3, 2004: Missed 53 games (elbow surgery).
May 12, 2004: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (elbow surgery).
Apr 3, 2004: Elbow surgery, 15-day DL.
Mar 28, 2004: Elbow surgery, sidelined indefinitely.
Dec 20, 2003: Re-signed by the Florida Marlins to a one-year contract.
Nov 19, 2003: Activated from the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
Oct 25, 2003: Missed 16 playoff and 139 regular season games (right elbow inflammation).
Apr 26, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL.
Apr 9, 2003: Missed 8 games (right elbow inflammation).
Mar 29, 2003: Right elbow inflammation, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 21).
Sep 14, 2002: Missed 24 games (right elbow injury).
Aug 19, 2002: Right elbow injury, 15-day DL.
May 6, 2002: Transferred from the 15-day DL to the 60-day DL (right elbow inflammation).
May 7, 2001: Missed 29 games (broken right foot).
Apr 24, 2001: Sent on rehabilitation assignment to Brevard County (A).
Mar 31, 2001: Broken right foot, 15-day DL (retroactive to March 23).

When You sign a 5yr-82.5 million dollar contract, you get tossed into the hype machine. There’s a nice post over at fangraphs.com explaining how Burnett’s contract plays out, and their general players current value vs. how much they’re being paid.

So whats the deal with Burnett when it comes to his fantasy value?

If he pitches 200 IP, you’re getting at least 200K, a sub-1.25 WHIP, and round about 3.50ish ERA.  This is pretty much the second tier of starting pitchers. Very few pitchers can get to 230-240 strike-outs in a season, and a healthy Burnett is one of them.  You’re basically getting Edison Volquez’s numbers with a better WHIP, or Brandon Webb’s numbers with a few more K’s.

He’s not quite in the class of Lincecum and Santana but his high K-Rate, really makes up for the slight downgrade in the ERA & WHIP from all-stars like Hamels, and Peavy.

Burnett is now also pitching for the best offense money can buy, which means if he goes 6 — he’ll get a W.  Twenty wins seems more like a basement than a ceiling with that line-up behind him.

STATS: 9.5K per 9, 3.50 BB per 9, 2.5ish K:BB.

So if Burnett goes 230 IP, he’s a top-5 or 6 Pitcher.  Now, please factor in the risk. Burnett’s had elbow issues his entire career, and that probably isn’t going to change.  As ridiculous as the A-Rod speech on wanting to prove to the world that he was indeed worth 200 Million dollars was, it does hold true.

Burnett and Sabathia are going to have to prove their worth.  While this contains no statistical data at all, and is nothing more than a gut feeling; Burnett is going to be using his insane-uncle-charlie quite a bit.  He’ll be throwing hard (is 100mph still a possibility?), and if anything goes wrong he’ll start forcing it.

Obviously, no-one is going to draft Burnett based on 220 IP — So you’ve got to decide upon a number that you feel is reasonable.  Two 15-day DL stints seems about right to me. There’s nothing to Burnett to analyze other than his injuries.  When he’s healthy he puts up devastating numbers, and while his control could use some work — most fantasy players can live with a 1.25-WHIP.

When Burnett is off, Burnett’s got control issues but Burnett’s normally only off when he’s tweaked his elbow. He’s shown he can pitch through minor inflammation in contract years, so the question becomes whether or not he’ll pitch through injuries in New York.

Bank on 160IP from Burnett, plus 50-60 IP from your fantasy league’s replacement level player. If you assume a 4.50 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, and 5-6 K / 9 for your replacement level player you’re getting pretty much Burnett’s 160 strikeout’s plus about 40 from your replacement level guy.  So 220 IP nets you 200 K.

I arrived at these numbers arbitrarily, but in a normal league a 4.50 ERA,  1.40 WHIP and 5-6K per 9 seems fair.

160 IP nets you 62 Earned Runs at a 3.50 ERA, and combine that with 30 ER in 60 IP (4.50ERA) and you’ve got 92 ER in 220 IP. Burnett’s probable 3.50 ERA becomes a 3.76 ERA when you combine it with your 60 IP from a replacement level pitcher.

Burnett’s WHIP will be the most volatile, but I’ll consider the ceiling of 1.30ish + 60IP of 1.40ish. Burnett has 208 BB+H in 160IP, and Replacement has 84 BB+H in 60 IP.  Combined that’s 292 BB+H in 220 IP = 1.33 WHIP.

Our combined AJ Burnett (160IP) + Player X (60 IP) stats are as follows:

3.76 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 200K

The only thing I can add as a native-Torontonian, is that it wont be a contract year for another 5 years.

USEFUL ARTICLE HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/index.php/aj-to-ny

and HERE: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/aj-burnett-to-the-yankees

Lovely Elbow Shot courtesy of Larry Page / Flickr

Jeff Samardzija – Starting Pitcher – Chicago Cubs

At 6’5 / 218lbs with good body control, Samardzija should be a solid jump-ball artist and red-zone target at the next level. Samardzija is your prototypical possession receiver, and gets a solid release off the line.

..wait, Samardzija picked the Cubs instead of the NFL? I guess that makes sense when you run a 4.62 / 40 Yd Dash.  It worked out for Drew Henson, right?

Stat time! Read more

Andy LaRoche – Third Base (3B) – Pittsburgh Pirates

Whether or not this is the hype-machine or the post-hype machine is up for debate. The Manny Ramirez / Jason Bay trade brought Andy LaRoche along with Bryan Morris, Craig Hansen, and Brandon Moss to the Pirates.

LaRoche was once a top-tier prospect, a can’t miss prospect.  Almost every publication had LaRoche in their top-10 position players, if not overall.

Yet LaRoche is proving to be a AAAA player, and his stock has plummeted. Is Adam LaRoche worth the risk after batting a paltry .177 last year between Los Angeles and Pittsburgh.

Here come the stats:

Year	Team	G	AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	AVG	BB%	K%	OBP	SLG	OPS	ISO	BABIP
2006	AA	62	230	9	42	46	6	0.309	15.10%	13.90%	0.419	0.483	0.901	0.174	0.328
2006	AAA	55	202	10	35	35	3	0.322	11.00%	15.80%	0.4	0.55	0.95	0.228	0.344
2007	AAA	73	265	18	55	48	2	0.309	12.80%	15.80%	0.399	0.589	0.987	0.279	0.312
2007	LAD	35	93	1	16	10	2	0.226	17.70%	25.80%	0.365	0.312	0.677	0.086	0.294
2008	AA	6	22	0	5	1	1	0.318	12.00%	27.30%	0.4	0.364	0.764	0.045	0.438
2008	AAA	39	123	5	35	28	2	0.293	23.10%	11.40%	0.452	0.439	0.891	0.146	0.298
2008	LAD.PIT	76	223	5	17	18	2	0.166	9.70%	16.60%	0.252	0.256	0.508	0.09	0.177

When you look at LaRoche’s minor league numbers you see a future All-Star, then he goes up to the big leagues and gets eaten alive which ends up effecting him negatively upon his return to the minors.

There’s no way to explain this other than LaRoche has been relying solely on his athletic ability, and using it to make up for  mistakes.  LaRoche is the type of player that can guess fastball, get a curve, react and drive the pitch.

When you get to the big leagues, this type of approach doesn’t work. Looking at LaRoche’s K% and BB% tells the story, and the easiest explanation seems to be a poor approach.

The first trip up to the big club in LA brought with it an increase in K% and BB%, which screams of a player emotionally overwhelmed by the switch. When LaRoche realized that hacking wasn’t the way to go, he started taking pitches.

In the 2008 Triple-A season, LaRoche did everything you’d expect a player to do after starting the year in the Minors.  He decased that 25 percent strike-out rate and increased his walk rate to a nutty 23% which lead to a .452 OBP.  Some may view this as a great thing but when a hitter loses his aggressiveness, he tends to fall apart when pressed.

His .439 SLG percentage was nowhere close to his previous Triple-A mark of .550 and .589.  LaRoche was a broken man, a patient broken man.  Rarely will I fault a hitter for being patient, but in LaRoche’s case his patience flew out the window when he was called up again.

What gives me the slightest bit of hope, is that an approach can be changed with work and time.  LaRoche doesn’t appear to be have a hole in his swing and the only thing that stands out is his stupid-silly ground ball rate.

There’s no reason why LaRoche wouldn’t have put in the work this off-season, and the only problem here is time.

Pittsburgh acquired former ROY Eric Hinske, who can play third in a pinch this off-season and waiting in the wings is Pedro Alvarez.  Pedro Alvarez is one hell of a prospect, and Keith Law has him third behind Vitters and Brett Wallace.

With the way Alvarez smashed NCAA pitching over the course of three years, I’d be surprised if he didn’t follow the Evan Longoria path to excellence. There’s no particular reason other than financial that Alvarez wouldn’t get a shot at a September Call-Up.  I really can’t see Alvarez in the minors for more than a year, year and a half.

So, LaRoche’s got a year to prove himself.  I think he gets it done.

Verdict: Feed the post-hype? machine.  You really shouldn’t have to invest that much into LaRoche, and he’s definitely worth the gamble.  His ceiling is limited by the offense he plays in, but playing with his brother should help ease the burden of being a top-prospect.

Photo Courtesy of Matt Bandi Flickr

Clayton Kershaw – Starting Pitcher (SP) – Los Angeles Dodgers

Clayton Kershaw will turn 21 on the 19th of March, and he’s already been through a couple tumble-cycles in the hype machine. Obviously, big things are expected from Kershaw this year as he’s penciled in the second slot in the Dodgers’ rotation behind Chad Billingsley.

With the recent signing of Randy Wolf (1-year, 5-million) the Dodgers’ rotation is starting to take shape.  Considering Pitchers and Catchers are only a week away from reporting, it’s a safe bet to project the rotation as follows: Billingsley, Wolf, Kershaw, Kuroda, with Schmidt, Vargas and a handful of others fighting for the last spot.

So, for the sake of fantasy owners’ sanity, we’ll assume that Kershaw will have a starting gig throughout the entirety of 2009.

When dealing with young hurlers, you really only have to concern yourself with a few things.

1. A High Strike-out Rate (K%, or K per 9):  If the kid doesn’t strike batters out,  they’re generally not worth the risk.  There are very few exceptions where a players WHIP, and ERA will be useful and draft worthy but it can easily blow up in your face.  Ian Kennedy of the Yankees comes to mind.
2. Control, Control, Control. A kid can have all the stuff in the world, but at some point batters will stop swinging if he cant control at least two of his pitches.
3. Change Speeds / Keep Batters off balance.  Most of the young guys that get thrown into  the hype machine will be tossing at least 94-95 MPH but if he doesn’t have something else — he’ll more than likely end up in a relief role.

Now, lets see what Kershaw brings to the table:

Year	Team	W	L	ERA	IP	ER	HR	BK	SO	K/9	BB/9	K/BB	HR/9	AVG	WHIP	BABIP	LOB%	FIP
2006	R	2	0	1.95	37	8	0	0	54	13.14	1.22	10.8	0	0.212	0.89	0.357	69.70%	0.69
2007	A	7	5	2.77	97.1	30	5	0	134	12.39	4.62	2.68	0.46	0.208	1.25	0.323	72.70%	2.72
2007	AA	1	2	3.65	24.2	10	4	1	29	10.58	6.2	1.71	1.46	0.196	1.38	0.243	73.90%	5.02
2008	AA	2	3	1.91	61.1	13	0	2	59	8.66	2.79	3.11	0	0.184	0.95	0.255	67.20%	2.21
2008	MLB	5	5	4.26	107.2	51	11	0	100	8.36	4.35	1.92	0.92	0.264	1.5	0.325	75.70%	4.08

Dominant Strike-Out Pitcher: Even though Kershaw’s dirty strike-out per nine numbers took a dip when he came to the bigs, he’s still dominant in the strike-out department.  Expecting anywhere from an 8 to 11 strike-outs per nine is realistic.

Strike-outs aren’t a problem, as Kershaw’s bringing 94-95mph heat to the mound with him.  If Torre lets Kershaw loose, which probably wont happen until at least the All-Star break, watch out.

Control, Control, Control: Statistically speaking, 100 innings pitched isn’t quite enough to go on especially when you consider it was Kershaw’s first major league action.  However, his BB/9 are ’round about where you’d expect a young power pitcher to be. If Kershaw continues pitching at around 8 or 9 K per 9, his walk rate should improve in 2009. If Kershaw starts going all out, it wouldn’t be surprising to see his K-Rate skyrocket to 11ish, and his BB rate bounce up to about 5ish.

Either way, Kershaw is going to be useful.  However, there are going to be some serious rough patches. For the most part Kershaw’s BAD games, were somewhat predictable.

6 ER in 4 IP against the Philadelphia Phillies on August 23.

5 ER in 3 IP agaist the Colorado Rockies in Coors on July 22.

5 ER in 2.1 IP against the Washington Nationals on August 28th. Guh?

It’d be nice to see Kershaw improve on his walk rate, and his minor league stats don’t particularly lean one way or another. In his final season in the Minors, Kershaw cut his walk rate to 2.79 per nine which looked like a good sign.

Change Speeds & Buckle Knees: Kershaw’s got the right stuff and once he learns to control it, he’ll be great. What stands out is his ability to go from 94-95 on average, with about about a 97mph ceiling, and then buckle knees with what is already considered one of the best curve-balls in the game and comes in at about 74-75mph.

Kershaw’s change-up is getting better and while he’s only throwing it 5-6 percent of the time, I wouldn’t be surprised to see this jump to about 12 % with a off-season and spring-training under his belt.

Spring-training generally means absolutely nothing, but watch Kershaw.  I’m sure they dont have the lovely PFX data during spring camp, but you can tell the difference between his change and curve pretty easily.

There’s a great article on Clayton Kershaw’s future from the hardballtimes.com that showcases a few things about his arm-angle, release point, and future projections.  The HardBallTimes.com is one of the best reads on the web.

The Verdict: Feed the machine, and throw Kershaw straight to the head of the young-pitchers pack. Lincecum, who was drafted the same year as Kershaw, had the benefit of college to hone his control skills and all of the little things. Keep in mind  that Lincecum is almost 4 years older than Kershaw, and Kershaw might requiring a bit of babying by Torre.

Kershaw’s breakout year could come as soon as 2009, but I’d instead be banking on about 185 IP / 8.5 K per 9 / and a 3.25 BB:9 / which puts Kershaw in pretty elite company. Expect improvement, and as long as he’s pitching in the pitcher-friendly NL West, enjoy the ride.

David Price may garner more hype going into 2009, but Kershaw is probably a slightly safer bet with equal, if not greater, upside.

Photo: wish_nbk flickr

Alexei Ramirez – SS, 2B, MI – Chicago White Sox

How’s life in America, Mr. Ramirez? Chicago’s a bit colder than Cuba, but the people are lovely aren’t they.  Hope you’re doing well and enjoying the immense hype surrounding you, because it’s about time you’re fed to the hype machine.

The White Sox nailed Ramirez down with a 4 year deal paying 4.75 million of its course.  At this point, the White Sox have already paid for Ramirez with the super-rookie season he turned in.  Ramirez is a tad on the old-side for a prospect, as he’s already 27, but he’s made the transition to the MLB perfectly.

Ramirez can play Shortstop, Second Base, and some Outfield.  He doesn’t particularly play any of those positions well, but his above-average athletic ability makes him passable at all of these positions.  Ramirez has stated he feels most comfortable playing Shortstop, and this looks like where he’s going to start 2009.

Onto the stats and the corresponding Scouting Report for Alexei Ramirez.

Year	Team	G	AB	R	H	HR	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	OBP	SLG	AVG
2008	CHW	136	480	65	139	21	77	18	61	13	9	.317	.475	.290
Total		136	480	65	139	21	77	18	61	13	9	.317	.475	.290

Four things stand out:

1. 21 Home Runs in 480 AB from the MI position
2. 13 Stolen bases even if he was caught 9 times
3. A .290 Average with only a .317 OBP which means an AWFUL 3.6% BB rate
4. He Swings at everything: 59.9% Swing Rate, 42.7% Outside the Zone Swing Rate

Chicago, we’ve got a problem. Generally, a players physical skills begin to peak at around the age of 27 and you get to the point where you are what you are. Alexei Ramirez definitely has some leeway with regards to this, as he’s only spent a year in the MLB.  You should know by August, whether or not his bad habits have caught up to him.

But August doesn’t help you, as fantasy leagues don’t draft in August.

Alexei Ramirez’s BABIP seems about right sitting at .296, for someone with his Line Drive Rate (16.6%) and his Swing Rate (59.9%).

When you look at players with 400 AB, Ramirez ranks only behind Vladimir Guerrero for swing percentage.  Delmon Young, Jeff Franceour, Bengi Molina, and Josh Hamilton are other notables with a Swing Percentage above 55 percent. Alexei Ramirez does make contact at an 81.4% clip, which is right in line with Guerrero.

Ramirez has garnered quite a few comparisons to another second baseman turned outfielder, that he mirrors physically: Alfonso Soriano.  Soriano comes in at 6’1 – 180lbs, while Ramirez is 6’3″ – 185lbs.

Soriano’s 54 percent Swing Rate is not much better than Ramirez’s 60 percent, so it appears the comparisons seem about right. In 2007 Soriano did swing at about 60 percent of pitches, so the difference is more than likely marginal.

In Soriano’s first full season (2001) when he was 25 years old he put up very similiar statistics to Ramirez.

YEAR	Team	AB	PA	H	2B	3B	HR	R	RBI	BB	SO	SB	CS	AVG	OBP	SLG
2001	Soriano	574	614	154	34	3	18	77	73	29	125	43	14	0.268	0.304	0.432
	Aged 25
2008	Ramirez	480	509	139	22	2	21	65	77	18	61	13	9	0.29	0.317	0.475
	Aged 26

First off, all the usual caveats apply. Different eras, Different players, only a year for a sample size, etc etc.

Soriano clearly has more advanced base running skills than Ramirez, but I’d argue that the difference in pure speed isn’t as great as the stolen base numbers project. Soriano isn’t a great pure base-stealer to begin with, so Alexei Ramirez really needs some work to improve on his sub-60 percent success rate.

Other than that, everything favors Alexei Ramirez. While Alexei Ramirez’s OBP is an awful .317, Soriano got by with a .304. Soriano did have a slightly better WALK rate, notching an awful 4.8% it’s really not that much better than Ramirez’s 3.6%. In Soriano’s next year, one of his best years, he only walked 3.2% of the time.

There is a difference in K rate however, which favours Ramirez.  Soriano put up a 22-percent K-rate while Ramirez put up a respectable 13%.  Combine that with Ramirez’s slightly better SLG percentage and Batting Average and we’ve got ourselves a pretty good comparison.

So what did Soriano do after his first full season?

AB	HR	R	RBI	SB	CS	AVG	BB%	K%	BB/K	OBP	SLG	OPS
696	39	128	102	41	13	0.3	3.20%	22.60%	0.15	0.332	0.547	0.88

While it’s probably ridiculous to expect 39 Home Runs, 128 R, 102 RBI, 41 SB, a .300 average, and a .880 OPS percentage — Short of the SB, it is possible.

Conclusion:

Alexei Ramirez has so many layers to him, and whether or not you consider him a sleeper depends on how deep you dig. If you just look at last year and expect him to improve on his rookie numbers, that may be a bit ignorant considering his hacking ways and low walk rate.

If you peel the layers back, you’ll notice that all signs point to him showing a lot of bad signs going forward.  Whether it’s the Walk Rate, The Swing Rate, The Base Running Skills or his label as a “fastball hitter”.  Pitchers will adapt to him, and start throwing him more junk if he’s swinging at everything. Can he adapt?

If you pull the layers all the way, you see that it’s indeed possible for a player with Ramirez’s skill set to make use of it.  While he wont hit 40 HR, he does have the raw power and bat-speed to make pitchers pay for mistakes.  Maybe he follows the career path of Soriano, and dominants before getting shifted to the outfield.  On the other hand, maybe he flops.

Verdict: Feed the Hype-Machine, but draft a safe back-up plan. If Pitchers get the book on Ramirez he’s going to fail, and fail badly. With shortstop being so deep, you can pick up a cheap 2-category guy as an insurance plan. Whether that’s stolen bases and runs, or batting average and mild production across the board — is up to you.

Photo Courtesy of Kimberly / Flickr

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