Hype Machine

Sacks Juiced: May 26

Dallas Braden left the Oakland loss in the fourth inning with a sore ankle.  Braden had issued an unearned run and three hits in four innings before allowing a couple walks and being pulled.  Braden believes that he’ll make his next scheduled start.

Braden’s counterpart, Jeremy Guthrie, pitched six innings allowing one earned run for the quality start.  Guthrie walked three batters while only striking out a couple. As I’ve said before, Guthrie’s a rate-stat only fantasy pitcher with a penchant for keeping his BABIP low by inducing groundballs and catchable flies.  Guthrie’s FIP, xFIP and tERA will always trend above his actual ERA but hoping for a continuation of 3.64 ERA is a pipe dream.  Jeremy Guthrie is the king of average, and you should probably expect that going forward.

Jake Peavy got lit up by the Sizemore-less Cleveland Indians.  Peavy allowed 6ER on 8H but only walked a single batter while striking out 5.  Shin-Soo Choo and Jason Donald went deep off of Peavy.  Peavy hasn’t looked like this since his second year in the league (2007) where he went 12-11 with an ERA of 4.11 and a FIP of almost five.  The strike-outs are still there (8.02K/9) but the walks have ballooned past 3 and a half.

Mitch Talbot lowered his ERA to 3.73 and WHIP to 1.28 with a 7 inning, 2 earned run ball game against the Sox.  At this point, shutting down the Sox is nothing to celebrate.  After starting the season with an ERA in the twos, Talbot’s had 3 bad games in his last five (Jays, Detroit, and KC).

Travis Hafner’s average is up to .281 after a couple of hits but it’s an empty average.  Hafner’s power is nowhere near his career mark and his ISO is under .150.  There’s some good news on the horizon though, just not 30HR news.  Over the last 8-games, Hafner’s managed extra bases (4Doubles, 1HR) in five.  Hafner’s working on a 12-Game hitting streak, too!  For someone that started May with a .197 AVG and .324 SLG, closing it out with a .281 AVG and .430 SLG is pretty impressive.

Jason Heyward went 2-for-4 with a couple RBIs and now has a .296/.415/.578 line which makes for one hell of a .992 OPS.

Cameron Maybin had 2 hits and a DINGER! but this is me ignoring those numbers.

Maybe Anibal Sanchez gets his own article after 6.1IP of 5H, 2ER, 6K baseball.

Life sure is good for Martin Prado who now has 32 Runs on the year after a 3hit, 1R night.  Batting ahead of Heyward et. al means 52% of your pitches will be in the zone and almost 65% will be fastballs.

Doumit hit a homer and Andrew McCutchen had a couple hits to raise his BA to .324.  McCutchen’s .371 BABIP is high for even him — he’s more of a .290 hitter.

Mike Leake magically turned 10 hits and a walk into only a single earned run.  Leake went 7.1 innings and struck out three — This kid can pitch and if this were a different year (read. no Heyward,) he’d be the odds on favourite to win the NL ROY.

Lester walked FIVE! batters and gave up one hit in his 6 inning, 0ER, 9K performance.  Despite the walks, he’s back to being Jon Lester, future Cy Young award winner. A single by Wily Aybar was the only hit on the day against Lester.  I’m starting to think that the Rays enjoy being no-hit.

James Shields allowed 2 ER, 4H, 2BB while striking out 5 over his 8 inning stint.  Shields pitched a terrific game and is still amongst the elite.

Mike Cameron is back, yet it was Ellsbury rather than Hermida that sat.

Jose Reyes stole 2 bases, had 3 hits, and scored 3 runs last night.  He is an elite shortstop, even if the power’s not there.

R.A. Dickey had 7K in 6IP but I’d rather not discuss a knuckleballer.  Dickey managed to get his way out of three bases loaded jams in the first three innings, so thing’s aren’t exactly exciting.

Derrek Lee hit a homer but the BA is still a concern — Lee’s hitting 21% LD and his BABIP is .262 so there’s definitely room for improvement. ZiPS has him hitting .280 the rest of the season.

Ryan Dempster looked great holding LA scoreless while allowing three hits while striking out seven and walking a single batter.

Clayton Kershaw only allowed 4 H and a couple of walks but it once again took him 100+ pitches to get through 6IP.

Vladdy Guerrero went off for a couple of DINGERS! in his 5RBI performance.  Hamilton and Cruz didn’t miss out on the action, each hitting one of their own.

Billy Butler continued his hot hitting with a couple hits and a walk.

There’s no doubt in my mind that Gil Meche is hurt; something’s wrong with his delivery and presence. Meche gave up 6 R (4ER) on 4HR and has a 6.66 ERA on the year.

Rich Harden continues to test my patience after allowing 6R (5ER) against the Royals.  Neftali Feliz got the save and looks to be doing his thang.

Rickie Weeks went 3-for-5 with 2R, 2RBI and a HR.  Weeks still strikes out too much and doesn’t walk nearly enough but this may be a sign that his mid-May slump is over.

Recent call-up, Jonathan Lucroy, has a couple hits in his first two games.  Unfortunately, the ballsy catcher saw it fit to try and steal a base — fail.  Lucroy did steal 8 bases in A-ball a couple years ago, but I wouldn’t count on more than 1 at the MLB level.  Lucroy will more than like split the platoon with Kottaras while Zaun’s out.

Both Jhouyls Chacin and Ian Kennedy pitched a’ight games.  If I had to pick one going forward, Chacin’s electric stuff takes it.

Yah, that’s Troy Tulowitzki’s third homer in 3 games and 4th in 5 games.

In THE pitching match-up of the night, Jon Garland tossed 7IP of scoreless baseball for the win but was outpitched by Adam Wainwright who, aside from a solo-knock by Hairston Jr, pitched brilliantly.  Wainwright struck out 12 Padres while only allowing a single walk and four hits — that’s how the cookie crumbles, I guess.

Jose Bautista hit another homer, as did Jeremy Reed and Aaron Hill, but it wasn’t enough.  Aside from the Dingers!, Ervin Santana pitched a masterful game by locating his fastball and getting the Jays to chase that dirty slider.  Santana pitched a complete game 4-hitter with 10Ks — going forward, I wouldn’t be too worried about those HR.

Mike Napoli is on fire: 4HR in his last 5G and 5HR in his last 8G.

Doug Fister got yet another win from a 7 inning, 3R, 2ER, 1K performance.  This guy blows my mind.

Maybe Milton Bradley’s finally rounding into form with a homer and 3RBI last night.

Livan Hernandez is finally regressing!!!!

4ER in 5IP on 7Hits last night.

Sacks Juiced: May 25

In an off-day for many clubs, a couple players had great games.  Alex Rios homered in the 9th and stole a base in the 2nd in a win over Justin Masterson and the Tribe.  Rios is now hitting .309 on the year with a BABIP right where it should be.  The strike-outs are down a couple percent and he’s making contact 5% more of the time.  Rios’ first strike percentage is down almost 8% and his SwStr% has followed suit, down almost 2pts.  Everything about Rios’ resurgence looks to be legit; it’s just a matter of dedication at this point.

Sergio Santos picked up another hold and registered a strike-out; that’s 10.90 K/9 on the year.  Santos’ fastball is averaging 95.5mph and he’s getting 10mphs of separation on his off-speed stuff (SL: 85.5, CH: 86.3).  The back-end of Santos, Thorton, Putz and Jenks all pitched in John Danks‘ victory and everyone looked solid.  Santos gave up the only hit and Jenks the only walk.

Dustin Pedroia had three hits against the Rays and both Youkilis and Ortiz hit DINGERS!  Youkilis has hit 5 of his 10 home-runs in the last 8-games, I think that’s a hot-streak.  Ortiz has followed suit, hitting 5 of his 9 homers in the last 9 games.  Things are definitely heating up in Boston and everyone gets a slight bump in the rankings.

Clay Buchholz pitched 6 solid innings getting the quality start:  6H, 1ER, 8K, 1BB.  Carlos Pena took Buchholz deep for his only run surrendered. Hopefully if you own Pena, you’re in an OBP league.  Pena’s hitting .191 on the year which is only palatable when he’s hitting homers.   Buchholz, despite his somewhat disappointing K-Rate (6.95-per-9), has returned to his 2007-ways in terms of O-Swing (31%) and Swinging Strike (11%).

Aaron Harang got the win despite allowing five runs (four earned).  Harang only allowed a couple of walks but gave up eight hits in 6.1IP.  Over the course of the season, Harang’s just been remarkably hittable.  Harang’s velocity is up but the horizontal movement has dropped; counteracting that, is the increase in vertical movement.  Batters are just teeing off on Harang’s fastball and I really don’t have an answer… or even a question, at this point.  A .353 BABIP and 65% LOB-rate certainly aren’t helping things.  Harang’s release point is still clustered by pitch, rather than constant, though.

The Blue Jays didn’t homer in last night’s 6-0 victory over the Angels but Adam Lind had a double.  I keep wanting to believe that Lind will snap out of it but the 26% K-Rate is worrisome as is the return to 30%+ O-Swing.  He’s definitely pressing.

The big story of the night was Jose Bautista’s 3 walks.  The Angels didn’t want to pitch to him and Bautista resisted temptation.  Edwin Encarnacion or E5 followed suit by taking a couple walks of his own.

Brett Cecil will get his own article but he pitched very well: 7.1IP, 3K, 2BB.  Cecil’s WHIP is now at 1.15 on the year.

Sacks Juiced: May 24th, The Weekend.

Ryan Doumit of the Pirates went deep and continues to torture me for giving up on him.  Everything about Doumit’s early career pointed towards the loss of catcher eligibility and I cut bait — Needless to say, Doumit’s played 37 games at Catcher in 2010 after 71 and 106 in the previous two years.  In 2010, Doumit’s struck down 3 of 37 potential stolen bases.  I love where Doumit’s at when it comes to plate discipline, though:  The walk rate’s up to almost 10%, the O-Swing’s down to 2006-7 levels.  ZiPS has him at 13HR on the season, but he’s just a hotstreak away from a 20HR season.

Trevor Crowe continues to do an admirable job playing CF for the Tribe — 2 H, 2R and a SB.

Homer Bailey continues to play the roll of drunk flirty girl at a frat party that doesn’t put out: Bailey left in the 3rd with shoulder tightness.  Apparently, it’s not overly serious.

Kerry Wood finally got a save.  Good news.  As long as the heat’s there, and the health is sorta-kinda there, I’m buying.

Scott Rolen hit another homer (that’s 10!) and he finally appears to be healthy.  The evolution of Scott Rolen is just amazing –  He regularly struck out 20% of the time with the Phils and Cards before gradually cutting down on the strike-outs. Normally we’d celebrate this, but Rolen’s ISO took a nose dive.  In 2010, Rolen’s back to striking out 18% of the time and the ISO is back above .200 at .294!  Rolen’s HR/FB ratio is at 20% after a career of 11.1%; so regression is imminent but he should be able to outperform the projections provided he stays healthy.

Even on a bad Cleveland team, Shin-Soo Choo has cemented his spot as a top-50 fantasy player with a couple runs on three hits.

In Bizzaro world, Tim Wakefield goes 8IP allowing 0 ER and Roy Halladay goes 5.2 allowing 6ER.

Jacoby Ellsbury is back!  Keep an eye on his SB/CS.  Quite frankly, I’d imagine busted up ribs aren’t fans of headfirst slides.

Drew Storen pitched 1.2 innings and Matt Capps blew a save.  Storen’s averaged 94.3MPH on his fastball, thus far.

Kevin Millwood had another Kevin Millwood start:  6 IP, 3ER, 8K.  The Ks are intriguing and I even bet a pretty penny on Millwood yesterday but he’s still Kevin Millwood.  Same goes for Corey Patterson, he’s still Corey Patterson — 1 SB yesterday.

The White Sox got stomped by the Marlins:  Guillen, I just sunk your battleship. Ozzie Guillen arguably has the worst line-up management skills in the league. Basically every free swinger in the Marlins line-up hit a DINGER!  Cantu, Uggla, Ross — check, check, check.  Surprise alert:  Cameron Maybin had one AB and struck out.  You can have all the tools in the world but in the end, the game of baseball is still about hitting a baseball.

Josh Johnson went 6IP without allowing a run but he failed to strike out a White Sox batter.

Carlos Silva got another win.  Seriously?  He’s 6-and-0.  His 5.2K per 9 is the best of his career.

Speaking of wins, David Price got his 7th on the year in an outing where he only went 5 innings and gave up 5ER.  Price is still one of my favourites going forward but he was due for a couple flyballs leaving the yard.  I can’t make this clear enough;  David Price isn’t a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher.  The BABIP and BB% are quite worrisome and should result in more ER.  This may be the perfect sell high time on Price if you don’t think he’ll clean it up.

Kevin Gregg’s starting to implode:  4 ER in the past 1.1 IP.  You’ve got to hold onto him at this point because there’s no way in hell you’re getting any value out of him in a trade.

John Axford got the save for the Brewers and throws very hard (mid-to-high 90s) but walks too many and allowed 3 Hits last night.  While Axford struck out 3 in the 9th, it wasn’t pretty.

In case you forgot that I was a Canadian, Axford hails from my hometown (Simcoe, ON) and Jesse Crain, who pitched for the Twins, was born in my current city (Toronto, ON) — This is a pretty big deal.

Billy Butler went 4-for-5 with a single RBI — he’s hitting .346 on the season.  The BABIP is about 25pts too high but he’s absolutely punishing the ball.  Butler sure can hit the fastball.

Troy Tulowitzki hit another homer — that’s 3 in the past 4 games.  I’m confident in saying that Tulowitzki is no longer missing the sweet spot.

Ian Stewart had a good game with a couple hits and 3 RBI and has settled into the 25% K-Rate.  With Stewart, the doubles have been there but the homers haven’t quite kicked in.  I’m not sure if we’re dealing with a new approach but Stewart’s hitting 27% (up 12%) LD and and only 36% FB (down 9%).  I’m sure owners want the DINGERS! but this ratio is nothing to frown upon.

That’s it for now — I’m missing LAA/STL, SF/OAK, TOR/ARI, SD/SEA, DET/LAD, and NYY/NYM.  They’ll get taken care off shortly, as there aren’t many games on tonight.

Happy Victoria Day.

Sacks Juiced: May 22nd.

Excuse me if this is brief, I’ve always had a long-standing mantra when it comes to sports that affected last night:  The Playoffs Rule.  If there’s a playoff game on in any of the four major sports leagues, it takes precedence.  As a Canuck, I probably should be more of a hockey fan but I’m not; it’s baseball and football for me.  With that said, I was pretty excited that the hockey team that plays in a market with winter beat the hockey team that plays in California in an overtime bonanza.  Today, the Canadian team will face the American team at 3:00PM as to not disrupt the 8:20PM Basketball game.

Shin-Soo Choo hit a couple of dingers in the CLE/CIN game.  Choo has a freaky way of maintaining a ridiculously high BABIP, so don’t worry about his .355 BABIP.  The LD% is down but remember that Choo had a .367 and .370 BABIP over the past couple years.  With Choo’s walk-rate up and K-Rate down, he should have absolutely no problem posting a 20-20 season in Cleveland.

Kerry Wood gave up a homer in a non-save situation but also struck out a couple of batters.  Wood’s probably an injury risk and Chris Perez has been solid but at this point, the stuff is there.

Joey Votto stole a couple bases — that’s 6 on the year.  I think Votto’s finally entered the “elite” category of first basemen, but keep an eye on his 50% GB-Rate.

Lefty J.C. Romero retired two batters to get the save for the Phillies against the Red Sox.  Romero relieved Baez, who’d put a man on first and second, in a 4-run game.  Romero got J.D. Drew to ground-out (advancing the runners) before plonking Beltre.  Finally, Romero got David Ortiz to fly out to deep-center.  Romero was more than likely brought in to deal with the lefties and did just that; even if it wasn’t pretty.

Jimmy Rollins was back atop the lineup with Victorino hitting behind  Ibanez.

Tim Hudson shutdown the Pirates.  Hudson has a 2.09ERA and a 3.88K/3.43BB rate — guh.  Obviously, Hudson’s gawdy 66% GB-Rate has been keeping him elite but at some point, the .213 BABIP and 87% LOB-Rate will abandon him.  I don’t see this ending well.

The Orioles are actually starting to hit:  Adam Jones had his first homer since April 24th.

Javier Vazquez got well against the Mets.  Takahashi pitched a very solid game for his first start: 6IP, 5H, 1BB, 0ER, 5K.  Takahashi is now striking out over 10 batters per 9 IP with a 2.91 tERA and a 3.56 xFIP.  Definitely someone to take a look at in deeper leagues (even with a Mets’ bullpen that has WHIPs that resemble ERAs)

Colby Lewis shut down the Cubs even though he walked 3 in 6 IP.  Lewis is striking out a batter per inning and is a solid bet to post a sub-4.00 ERA on the year.  Lewis is going to his Slider quite a bit more than previous years — it’s up to 30% and the Curve’s down to 8% versus last year’s 13% SL/23% CU split.

That’s 12 Saves on the season for Neftali Feliz.  I don’t understand why Texas gave up so soon on the dream of Neftali being a starter but to each his own, I guess.

Brett Myers is now (3-3) on a 15-27 Houston team.  Seven strike-outs in seven innings certainly doesn’t hurt his value.  Myers allowed a single unearned run in the first inning.  Myers is still a grade-A douchebag but his O-Swing is up 5% and his contact-rate is down 5%.  Myers also hasn’t seen his Swinging Strike percentage at 9 in a couple of years.  Myers has been going to his slider more often which has the best downward movement in his career.

Matt Lindstrom picked up his 10th save of the year and has his BB-Rate below 2.  A 3.75 K:BB Matt Lindstrom is a very useful Matt Lindstrom.  He’s left 93% of runners stranded but every other indicator shows that Lindstrom is just better.

Mark Buerhle pitched a great game: 8IP, 3H,  3K.  Buerhle does this from time to time before reminding the world that he’s spectacularly average. Sergio Santos pitched the ninth and struck out a couple batters.  This is me tooting Carlos Quentin’s horn for the third straight day.

Nick Punto was the only Minnesota Twin to not touch home plate and score a run last night.  Nick Blackburn is now 5-and-1.  That’s that for that 15-3 rout.

Jose Guillen hit a couple more DINGERS!  Twenty-two percent of his fly-balls are going for a long ride over the fence.  Unless you’re a baseball purist, there’s absolutely no reason to dislike the hilarity that follows Jose Guillen.

Colby Rasmus tripled for his lone hit of the day.  As a Rasmus owner, I’m absolutely terrified.  Rasmus is striking out 35% of the time and has a .368 BABIP.  Rasmus has a .930 OPS and has been graded AAA by Moody’s, S  & P and Fitch — Obviously, it’s buying time. Banking Sarcasm!

I can’t believe I turned off the Blue Jays / Diamondbacks game last night.  The Diamondbacks (397K) are number one in strike-outs and the Blue Jays (361K) are number 2.  Almost as if these two things were connected, the Blue Jays are number 1 in DINGERS! (72) and the Diamondbacks are number 3 (56 HR).

Here’s the DINGERS! from last night’s game:  Fred Lewis, Jose Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, Adam Lind, Adam LaRoche, Chris Young.

In six and two-thirds innings, Trevor Cahill struck out four and only walked one.  Walks will be the biggest factor in Cahill’s development.  I love the kid.

Cliff Lee got the win after giving up 7ER?  The weird part is that the Padres didn’t take a single walk, they just aimed and fired en route to 15 hits.

Mike Sweeney hit a couple of DINGERS! but really doesn’t deserve too much attention at this point.

Austin Jackson had two more hits and is still hitting 36% line-drives.

Sacks Juiced: May 21

Jimmy Rollins hit his second homer of the year, which isn’t exactly a 25-30HR pace from the Phillies shortstop. Rollins has been hitting .342 on the strength of a .355 BABIP but at least the walks have shot up to 19% on the season. All of Rollins’ contact and discipline numbers are the same except for the continued freefall of Zone%.  Rollins is currently seeing just over 43% of balls inside of the zone; a far cry from his career average of 53%.  So long as Rollins continues to bat in the bottom half of the order, 100 R and 80 RBI aren’t imaginable.  Rollins owners need to hope for Ibanez to put it together pronto.

Derrek Lee broke his 0-for-May homerless drought with a dinger last night.  Wrigley’s starting to heat up and Lee’s been starting to hit quite a few doubles, so good things may be in store.  With Derrek Lee’s line-drive, fly-ball, ground-out ratios intact and a career BABIP of .321, it’s safe to assume that his average will rise as his .258 BABIP regresses.

Jose Contreras picked up the save.

Clayton Kershaw got the win but he’s still using too many pitches (107) to get through 7 innings.  Kershaw’s a strike-out pitcher (7K last night) but using that many pitches to get through 7IP of 7H, 1BB baseball is pushing your luck.

Every starting position player for the Dodgers managed at least a single.

Will Venable stole yet another base — that’s 12 SB on the year.  Why a man with a 36% strike-out rate and an 11% BB-Rate is leading off is beyond me.  Venable’s meager .250 BA is propped up by a BABIP about 30pts higher than it should be.

Tim Lincecum got as lit-up as Tim Lincecum gets last night:  5IP, 5R, 5BB and 6K.

Chad Qualls managed to strike-out a single batter to get the one-out save.  If only they were all that easy, eh?

Erick Aybar isn’t exactly tearing up the basepaths but he attempted to steal a couple bases last night and ended up 1-for-2.  On the season, Aybar’s 6-for-11.  Aybar’s not a bad deal at this point:  He’s leading off, attempting to steal, and he should hit .275 for the rest of the year.  The increased K-Rate and decreased LD% might be something to keep an eye out for, though.

Jake Peavy exploded, giving up six runs, and probably deserves his own article at some point.

Houston’s success and 7-run Wednesday was definitely too good to be true as the Rockies blanked them on Thursday.  They were facing Ubaldo Jiminez and his 0.93 WHIP and 0.99 ERA, though.  Jiminez only managed to strike out four Astros — Blasphemy!

Roy Oswalt put together another quality start and looks revitalized with almost a K-per-IP (8.85).  Oswalt’s ERA in the low-twos probably isn’t here to stay but it looks like he has at least one more low-to-mid three left in him.

Manny Corpas came in to protect a 4-0 lead in the ninth.  Against the Astros, I guess that’s more like a 6-0 lead.

It looks like Troy Tulowitzki is starting to find the Sweet Spot after going 2-for-4 with a dinger and 3 ribeyes.

Brian Matusz gave up 2HR and 7ER in 2.1 Innings worth of work.  Ouch.  I still like the kid to finish out the year as one of the premiere first-year pitchers.

The Rangers and Orioles managed 35 hits between them.

Jon Lester is making everyone forget about his slow start after pitching a complete game, 1 ER, 9K gem.  If the windows is still open to grab this guy, I’d try.

After complaining, Mike Lowell went 0-for-4.  Congrats and enjoy your gigantic paycheck.

Andy Petitte had his first bad start of the year, giving up 6 ER in 5IP, against the Rays.  Petitte’s left-on-base percentage is still sitting around 80% and his BABIP is about 30pts too low.  Realistically, you should probably expect Petitte to do just what he’s always done: a low-4.00 ERA and about average strike-outs (ZiPS Update: 130K)

As I mentioned a couple days ago, Ben Zobrist is really starting to heat up.  Zobrist finally hit a DINGER!  Zobrist now has 9 hits in the last week.

With a couple homers, Carlos Pena showed the world that he’s aight.  The .215 BABIP is bad even for Carlos Pena. From the looks of it, Pena’s BABIP should regress to the .250 range — same as last year.  However, this means a .270 BABIP for the rest of the season.   Pena is hitting quite a few more grounders than year’s past which isn’t a good sign for a power hitter — Keep an eye on him and this disturbing trend.

John Maine faced a single batter and left with shoulder issues — It seems to be a precautionary issue.

Jose Reyes had two hits, a run and a RBI.  When it comes to break-out candidates, Jose Reyes is the center-of-the-universe.  Everything points to a return to greatness, even if he doesn’t get close to his career-high of 19HR.  If the owners in your league remember Reyes’ hey-days, he’s probably overvalued, though.

Carlos Villanueva recorded his first save of the year! Other than that, not much of note in the 4-3, Brewers over Pirates victory.

Kevin Gregg blew the save last night against the Mariners. Poor Ricky Romero, who only allowed one run and is starting to look like Ace-Material in Toronto.  I’m not fucking with you, Jose Bautista hit another HR.

Dave Cameron details the Braves re-donk-u-lous COMEBACK.

It was a Sizemore and Cabrera-less Tribe, but Luke Hochevar pitched a complete game, 3 run, 7K ball-game.  Even if the Kauffman Stadium pFX adds a couple miles per hour onto Hochevar’s fastball, he’s still hucking it.

Sacks Juiced: May 19th

The Royals’ Mike Aviles continued his hot hitting as he posted 3 hits (incl. a double and a triple)  in last nights victory over the Indians.  Aviles, who’s now hitting .390, will live and die by his BABIP.  Fifty-Nine at-bats into 2010 and Aviles still hasn’t drawn a walk which isn’t the best indicator going forward.  His BABIP sits at .412 but at least he’s making contact 93% of the time and keeping his LD-Rate above 20%.   We’re basically looking at a jacked-up version of Luis Castillo, who was himself, valuable every once and a while.

The Indians imploded, with Kerry Wood giving up five runs and a couple walks in 0.1 Innings of work.  It’s only been 3 IP and Wood’s walked 5 batters but the velocity is better than it’s been in a couple years:  95.6 mph on the FB.  The movement on his pitches according to pFX is also very similar to previous years.  Either way, batters have made contact with exactly 91% of pitches that they’ve swung at.  Worse still, Wood’s Z-Contact sits at  …100%.  With Kerry Wood, I wouldn’t worry unless he proves the BBs are here to stay.

Asdrubal Cabrera had surgery and will be out 8-10 weeks.  Grady Sizemore bruised his left knee and hit the DL too.  Trevor Crowe, replacing Sizemore,  hit leadoff and stole a base.  The stolen base potential is there for Crowe, having topped 20 SB in most of the previous years.

Alcides Escobar had 3 hits to raise his BA to .248.  Escobar’s BABIP is .274 after routinely posting .3-something during his career. So long as Escobar sits atop that line-up and hits line-drives 20% of the time, he’ll have value going forward.

With his 9th steal of the season, Ryan Braun‘s on track to steal about 35 on the year — Jesus.  He should top last year’s 20 but hoping for anything past 25 is pushing your luck.

Octavio Dotel recorded his 9th save of the year; his ERA now sits at 6.23 after that scoreless outing.

I thought about benching Wade Davis against the Yankees — they pegged him for 4 ER in 6IP to open the season — but decided against it and was rewarded with better than expected results: A W, 5.2IP, 2ER, 7K.  Davis is still getting pretty lucky with BABIP (.258) and LOB% (85%;) so expect a bit more regression in the future.  Davis has to bring his BB-Rate of 4.73-per-9 if he’s going to succeed.

A.J. Burnett exploded again: 4BB, 9H = 6 ER in 6.2 IP.  That’s 16 ER in the last 3 starts and his ERA is still only at 3.86.  Well, at least it’s Tampa, Boston and Minny.

Robbie Cano had yet another 4 hits last night.  Cano’s sitting at .340 on the year and leads the AL.

The Gorgonzola pitched another good game for the Cubs ( 6.2IP, 0ER, 3H, 2BB, 5K)

Other than Starlin Castro, the Cubbies offense was pretty bland against Jamie Moyer (7IP, 4H, 2ER, 7K, 1BB).  Castro’s impressed me thus far: He’s walking more than he’s striking out, hitting a decent amount of LDs, and making solid contact.  It’s only 49 plate appearances, but I thought the Cubs were destined to ruin this heralded prospect.

Angel Pagan hit an inside the park home-run and still has arguably the best use of poetic juxtaposition in a name ever.

Drew Storen came in with a man on second and got Livan Hernandez out of a jam. In 55.2 IP, Livan Hernandez has stranded 97.5% of base runners and *held* opponents to a BABIP of .193.  Is there anything you can do aside from chuckle?

Daniel Bard got his first save of the year after finishing up a gem by Clay Buchholz.   It seems like the fantasy community was one, maybe even two, full years ahead when it came to predicting Buchholz and Hughes dominance.  Clay Buchholz may still have a 1.43 WHIP but a .305 BABIP and 69% strand-rate show that there’s room for improvement.  Walks are still a problem but Buchholz only walked a single Twin while striking out 7 in last night’s 8-inning gem.  The line would’ve been better if Bard hadn’t allowed Denard Span to score on a Joe Mauer ground-out.

David Ortiz homered again:  that’s 2 in the last 3 games and 4 HR in the last 6 games.  More importantly, that’s 3 straight games without a strike-out for David Ortiz.

Jason Heyward got his OBP back over .400 after it temporarily dropped to — gasp! — .399 on Tuesday.  Two doubles and a triple mean that more homers are on the horizon.

Scott Rolen’s always an injury risk but boy has he been on a tear over the last 5 games.  Rolen’s raised his average 30pts, slugging percentage 70pts, and OPS a whole 85pts.

Houston scored 7 RUNS! Carlos Lee has homers in the last two games and three homers in the last 4 games.  That’s 3/5ths of his homer total in the last 4 games.

After a sub-par 2009, Jeremy Guthrie is back to being Jeremy Guthrie after hurling 6 Innings of 7-hit ball while allowing only a single earned run.  Guthrie struck out three Rangers before the bullpen blew it.  I won’t begin to even try and understand how Guthrie posted  3.70 and 3.63 ERAs in 2007 and 2008, respectively.  Guthrie’s back on pace to do it again in 2010, though.  A major decline in GB:FB ratio caused Guthrie problems last year and he’s went about fixing it in 2010.  Guthrie’s a guy who should float around a 4.40 ERA but he’s outpitched his indicators twice before, so I’m buying.  The O-Swing percentage is back to 2007-2008 levels and the rest of the plate discipline stats sit somewhere between 2007 and 2009.

As for the Rangers, not much has changed.  Josh Hamilton hit a homer and joined Kinsler, Guerrero and Cruz with an RBI each.  Justin Smoak is hitting .174 and killing me in my keeper league.

Joe Saunders and John Danks pitched a pretty decent game.  Danks struck out 8 but Saunders got the W. John Danks almost has his K:BB up to 3 and has pitched just as well as his 2.26 ERA would indicate (3.09 FIP, 2.56 tERA).  Based on Plate Discipline Statistics, we’re looking at 2008 John Danks (3.32 ERA -3.44 FIP) rather than 2009 Danks (3.77 ERA – 4.59 FIP)

Dan Uggla went deep again (11HR) and is posting the highest OBP (.380) of his career.  Uggla, of course, struck out again which has him pretty much on last year’s pace (26%) with a 24% K-Rate.  There are some underlying issues with Uggla though:  a drastic decrease in LD-Rate (10.5% in 2010) and an unsustainable 22.5 HR/FB ratio.  Uggla’s currently hitting a career high 46.5% (up 10% from last year) of his fair-contacts for grounders, too.

Jaime Garcia threw five innings of five hit ball without allowing an earned run.  Garcia continues to strike out batters (6 last night) but the walks are still a bit of an issue (4 last night).  Obviously Garcia isn’t a 1.28 ERA / 1.14 WHIP pitcher, but he should prove himself to be rosterable for the majority of the year.  Just how many innings Garcia can hold it together for isn’t quite clear yet — Assuming anything more than 130IP seems like a stretch at this point.

Anibal Sanchez outpitched Garcia last night — 7IP, 4H, 8K, 2BB.  On the season, Sanchez has a 3.28 ERA and a 1.34 WHIP.  Sanchez has seemingly been around forever and his Major League BB-Rate is finally coming close to his minors numbers.  When Sanchez isn’t walking 5 batters per nine, he can be pretty effective.

The Diamondbacks stomped the Giants, 13-1.  Justin Upton, Kelly Johnson, and Stephen Drew each had a DINGER:  Adam LaRoche had two!

Ian Kennedy kept up his hot start, pitching 8 innings and striking out 9.  Kennedy’s getting lucky with a .252 BABIP and 82.4% LOB but his K:BB of 3.06 is very promising.  Kennedy’s pounding the zone early with a 65% First Strike Rate.  The 3.24 ERA isn’t sustainable but solid K-numbers from a high-threes, low-fours, ERA guy isn’t all that bad.

Austin Jackson had 2 more hits and his BABIP is .458 almost three weeks into May.

Justin Verlander pitched a 1-run complete game and he’s still amongst the top in the AL. The strike-outs are down and the walks are up but there’s still plenty of time for correction: Just take note and remember his BABIP should be around .300, not .264.

Doug Fister got himself into and then out of trouble against the Blue Jays.  It just looked like he lost control for a handful of ABs.

Kevin Gregg got his 12th save of the year.  A BB-Rate in the twos helps take the sting out of the fact that Kevin GREGG!!! is our fucking closer.  Hitters are pounding the ball into the ground at a 50%-clip against Gregg.  Kevin Gregg the man, the myth, the legend, seriously is striking out 4.40 batters per walk.

One thing that’s stuck out is Kevin Gregg’s fastball. Gregg’s still throwing hard on the four-seamer but the pFX and velocity charts lead me to believe that he’s either amped up his slider or has started throwing the damn cutter that the Blue Jays love so much. Check out the Slider Graph and the Game Charts and you tell me.

Headley and Gonzalez went yard but the biggest surprise for me was Ramon Ortiz.  Yah, I didn’t know Little Pedro was still pitching.

Sacks Juiced: May 18th

Homer Bailey went seven strong innings against the Brewers, giving up 4H, 2BB and a couple ER.  Bailey settled down well after giving up both earned runs in the first.  He relied heavily on his fastball (71%) but his change-up looked better than it had in a couple starts.

Jay Bruce stole a base and collected a couple hits off lefty, Manny Parra.  Bruce has slowly been improving his platoon splits but it’s still quite sensible to sit him against top-tier lefties.  Jay Bruce is now hitting .280 on the year after a .223 ’08 campaign.  Bruce may be striking out more in 2010 but his swing-rate and swinging strikes are both down.  More importantly, Bruce has upped his walk-rate by swinging less outside of the zone.  You get the feeling that a break-out month is on the horizon for Jay Bruce.

Casey McGehee continued to absolutely punish the baseball with 3 hits on Tuesday.  After a 2009 season where McGehee owned the fastball, he’s been doing most of his damage this year on off-speed stuff.  McGehee’s BABIP isn’t spectacularly high — it’s actually the same .330 it was last year – but with only 10% of his hits as line-drives, there’s some concern.

The Toronto Blue Jays continued to light up mistake prone pitches against the Twins and Carl Pavano.  Aaron Hill, Vernon Wells, Lyle Overbay and Edwin Encarnacion all went yard.  Blue Jays not named Aaron Hill or Adam Lind will eventually regress but I’m not going to be the one to predict it.  With Hill’s homer and Adam Lind’s 2-hit game, their batting averages now sit at .175 and .231, respectively.  Adam Lind will have trouble duplicating his 2009 break-out season without cutting his Ks down to 2009 levels:  currently, he’s at 29% versus 19% in 2009.

Shaun Marcum continues to dominate with control after missing all of 2009 but the ERA is a bit lucky.  Expecting something closer to 2008′s 3.40ERA rather than 2010′s current 2.61 ERA seems to make sense.  Marcum’s ability to move the fastball and place the change-up wherever he damn-well pleases is extraordinary.

Rick Porcello’s sinker just isn’t sinking which is a problem when your value’s tied up in ERA and WHIP. At this point, I’m having major issues seeing Porcello’s upside, especially if he continues to walk almost as many batters as he’s striking out. Rick Porcello walked another 3 batters last night in a very mediocre performance (7IP, 4ER, 8H, 3BB, 2K) against the White Sox.

With 2 Hits and a steal, Brennan Boesch is now hitting .387 on the strength of a .426 BABIP.  The rook’s slugging percentage sits at a darling .680 but this can only last so long with a BB-Rate of 3% and a 51% O-Swing.

Andruw Jones went 1-for-2 in stolen base attempts last night; Can you believe Jones has 7 SB on the year?

Thankfully for White Sox fans, Bobby Jenks pitched a pretty clean 9th inning:  1H, 0BB and 2 Ks.  Sergio Santos walked a couple in one inning’s work to raise his WHIP to 1.08.  Hitters are only hitting .165 against Santos and his very live fastball (AVG Speed: 95.6mph).

Florida spanked Arizona eight to nil on Tuesday.  Justin Upton was the only Diamondback position player to record a hit — which he bundled with another 2 SO, lovely.

Cameron Maybin hit in the 2-hole and recorded a homer, a walk and a strike-out.  The kid’s still hitting just .242 (on a .341 BABIP) and striking out 32.6% of the time.

David Price pitched another solid game for his sixth win of the year.  I’d really like to see Price return to the BB numbers of 2008 (2.57) before I fully endorse him as elite, though.  While Price is getting a bit lucky on balls in play, he’s still pitching incredibly well with a 3.06 FIP and a True ERA (tERA) of 2.91.

Ben Zobrist is still without a homer, but i’d hardly call him a major disappointment after his 7th steal of the year.  His .340 BABIP is almost negated by a 5% increase in line-drives over last year.  The major concerns that I have with Zobrist is his huge jump in O-Swing (’09: 19%, 10: 27%) and decline in BB-Rate (’09: 15%, ’10: 10%).

The Royals and Orioles game was a thriller, just ask the reported 9,715 fans that showed up at Camden to take in the baseball super-event.  Kevin Millwood, a man that I’ll never roster, continued his hot streak going 8 strong innings, striking out seven without a walk.  Millwood’s ERA is now 3.65 on the year and he’s striking out more than 7 batters per 9.

Jose Guillen had two more hits and is now batting .261 with 8HR.  Guillen has quietly gone about matching his 2009 power numbers in about half the games.  He’s already accumulated one more double, one fewer homer, seven fewer runs, and 15 fewer RBI in 41 fewer games.

Zack Greinke got yet another no-decision, despite 7IP, 2ER, 6K and 1BB.  That’s one whole win on the entire year, folks.  If there’s anyway that you can acquire Greinke, I’d do it.  He’ll still end up with at least 10-12 wins on the year.

I’m a bit sensitive about Josh Beckett as the former Texas Highschooler was one of my first ever keeper picks.  In 4.2IP, Beckett gave up another 3ER — That’s good for a season ERA on the wrong side of 7.

C.C. Sabathia allowed a single run in seven solid innings but I’m somewhat concerned about the strike-out and walk totals.  C.C. has a habit of starting out poorly but he’s barely striking out six batters per nine and walking almost 3-per-9.  He should eventually round back into form before that .239 BABIP catches up to him.

Roy Halladay’s complete game, two ER, six K, performance was out-dueled by Zack Duke et. al.  Evan Meek pitched another solid inning in relief, striking out one and walking another.  On the season, Meek has a ERA of 0.69 and has managed to strike-out a batter per inning while only walking 2.42-per-9.  Evan Meek’s added a couple of MPH across the board and his average fastball hitting 95mph is starting to look closer-worthy.  All the plate discipline indicators show that hitters are having trouble with his stuff; it’s just a matter of sustaining the BB-Rate, which he’s lopped in half since 2009.

Ike Davis hit a dinger, his first in a couple weeks.  While the strike-outs are worrisome, he’s walking almost 16% of the time.  There will inconsistency but Davis has looked pretty good thus far:  .275 AVG /.393 OBP/ .466 SLG.

Kris Medlen continued to prove his case with 6.1 innings of 4 Hit ball.  Medlen allowed a couple homers while striking out six and walking a couple.

I have absolutely no fucking clue how Carlos Silva continues to pitch this well.

Five walks in just over five innings got Jhoulys Chacin into trouble.  He still managed to strike-out six batters and his season ERA is now at 3.12.  If Chacin can keep his K:BB on the right side of two, he’ll have success going forward.  Expect the normal bumps and bruises, though.

Carlos Zambrano pitched a perfect ninth: two strike-outs and no walks!  The Cubs want him and his gigantic salary back in the rotation, which at least gives Big-Z owners hope.

Tyler Colvin took advantage of the playing time, knocking in a run and scoring a couple on three hits.  I’m not sure how the Cubbies can make this work but this kid needs to see some consistent at-bats.

Carlos Gonzalez had two hits for the Rockies but there is something dirty about his 2.7% BB-Rate hitting lead-off.

Ian Kinsler hit his first dinger of the year to help Texas beat the Angels.  On the season, Vladdy Guerrero now has eight homers after another one last night.  The question is not if Guerrero will come up with a bum hamstring but when.

Neftali Feliz is rounding back into form, pitching a scoreless ninth with two K’s.

At what point do the Angels just give up on Brandon Wood? Another hitless game for Wood.

Felipe Lopez lead off for the Cardinals last night.  You know the deal with Lopez, he’ll score runs and steal bases but it won’t be pretty.  I’ve got a feeling that Lopez might return to his 20 SB days after stealing just 14 over the course of the previous two years.

Six hits over two games was all it took Ian Desmond to raise his batting average from .246 to .279 — Wonky, eh?    This is a guy that flashed 30SB potential throughout the minors but it’s yet to translate.  In 2009, across two levels and a cup of coffee (AA-AAA-MLB,) Desmond stole 22 Bases.

Felix Hernandez got hit pretty hard (11H, 2BB) without it translating into ER (3).  Ben Sheets came back down to earth as he walked 4 more batters en route to 4ER.

Kurt Suzuki had 3 hits to raise his batting average from .239 to .264.  He’s still a viable option at catcher.

The story of the extra-innings game between the Padres and the Giants was Mat Latos.  Neither Latos nor the Padres got the win thanks in part to Mike Adams’ blown save in the eighth.  Mat Latos’ WHIP now sits just below 1.00 in part because he’s given up just 1 walk in his previous three starts.  Definitely someone worth locking your sights on.

Bud Norris exploded yet again against the Dodgers.  With a couple of hits and a homer, Carlos Lee may finally be starting to heat up.

MSG’s The Lineup

MSG Network  is searching for the most overrated best New York based players of all time and you can help them by jacking off the egos of New Yorkers logging on and voting over at MSG.com

Titling the program The Most Overrated Players Of All Time probably wouldn’t appeal to viewers of the MSG Network, so they went with The Lineup.

The Lineup airs on Tuesdays at 10:30 PM, with the next episode airing on the 27th of April.

Speaking of which, my lone encounter with the MSG Network was catching a Canadian Football League game — Huzzah!  As a Canadian, I love the utter insanity that occurs prior to the snap of the ball in the CFL.  In the NFL, players can move parallel to the line of scrimmage, but any forward movement is a penalty.  In the CFL, wide-receivers (there are generally 5 to 6 of them) assault the line of scrimmage like a disobedient wife.

The LineUp has actually assembled a pretty knowledgeable panel:

Will Leitch made DeadSpin — This is Good.

God Save the Fan was also pretty decent book.  Leitch writes for New York magazine and contributes to the harem of go-to media sluts for any self-indulgent, self-loving, self-pleasuring male:  The New  York Times, GQ and Slate.

Steve Hirdt, the executive vice-president of Elias Sports Bureau, also contributes along with Sparky Lyle.

All of this goodness gets destroyed with the inclusion of Grade-A Jackass, Gary Carter.

In addition to this, MSG has apparently discovered the internetz.  They’ll be giving away free shit in their interactive fantasy game.

When I think of interactive fantasy games, I think some of pretty kinky shit.  I’d imagine there would be Donuts, Maple Syrup, Glory Holes and Dallas Cowboys Cheerleaders somewhere in this game.

By playing such a lovely game, you can win terrific prizes:

Doc Gooden signed eightball baseball, anyone?  Memorabilia from Mattingly, Torre, Jackson or Jeter?

Speaking of which, if anyone ever wants anything pimped, share it.  I’ll drive your sales up at least 75% — I promise.  The best part, I charge absolutely nothing.

The Tommy Hanson Article

The Tommy Hanson Article has been put off until the time was right — Guess what? The time is right. Every day for the last month I thought about writing this article but figured you were getting your fair share of hype from the major media outlets. Read more

Brad Ziegler and the Athletics ‘Pen

Joey Devine, who was appointed the Athletics’ closer during Spring Training was placed on the 60-Day Disabled List on Saturday, and will probably require surgery on his elbow ligaments, essentially ending his season.

In steps Brad Ziegler, one of the genuinely nice guys in the big leagues.  Ziegler came to fame during his record setting streak of 39 scoreless innings to start a career. Ziegler throws from a side-arm, not quite submarine, delivery and was ridiculously effective in 2008.

…but maybe it was just luck, Ziegler had a lot of things working for him:

1. Batters hadn’t seen Ziegler’s unconventional delivery
2. Ziegler’s strand rate of 92.3% was unbelievable
3. Ziegler’s BABIP of .246 was equally as insane
4. All of this resulted in Ziegler’s FIP (Fielding Independent Pitching) of 3.72 grossly outpacing his actual ERA of 1.06

So what’s the deal with Ziegler?

He’s a ground ball pitcher (67% GB) that pitches in an incredibly pitcher friendly park, in front of a very solid defense. The A’s home stadium rated as the 5th most favorable park for pitchers according to ESPN’s park factors. Mind you, Ziegler’s ground ball tendencies don’t benefit quite as much from the spacious foul territory that makes McAfee Coliseum a pitchers-paradise.

Even with these things working for him, Ziegler still isn’t a prototypical closer. In 2008, Ziegler didn’t miss bats (4.53K/9), and in turn, posted a terribly mediocre BB:K rate of 1.36.

Ziegler’s splits are terribly concerning, as is generally the case with submariners. Ziegler allowed 2 HR all year, and both came against lefties. Ziegler’s WHIP against lefties was 1.52, compared to his 0.88 WHIP against righties. His batting average against echoed these sentiments as Righties hit .198 compared to the .280 that lefties hit.  In addition to Ziegler having issues with lefties, you should expect his LOB% and BABIP to regress towards the mean.

This isn’t good news for Ziegler owners, and I’d ship him as soon as he gets a couple saves under his belt.

Who Steps In?

Santiago Casilla was nearly un-hittable until a May 15th elbow injury forced him onto the DL.  Upon his return, his ERA slowly rose from a May 11th mark of 0.47, all the way to his season-ending number of 3.93.

Unlike Ziegler, Casilla does have your typical closers stuff: 94-95mph fastball, 87mph slider, and a mid-80′s change-up. His change seemed to be incorrectly categorized quite a bit last year, as it was clocked at an average of 88mph.

Casilla has better splits, and has predicted stats of: 8-9 K per 9, 3-4 BB per 9 and 2.00-2.50 K:BB

25 year old Jerry Blevins is another solid option, as the tools are there but he tops out at about 92mph.

Journeyman Russ Springer has nice peripherals, and a nice mix of pitches but they’ll probably be best served earlier in the game. Like Blevins, he tops out at about 92mph.

Andrew Bailey also has high strike-out potential, but his control doesn’t bode overly well for his status as a closer.  He’s best suited for mid-to-long relief.

In the end…

The saves will be spread around, but I think Casilla ends up with better save totals than Ziegler.

There’s really only one conclusion that I’d be willing to stake my name on, and that’s Brad Ziegler doesn’t succeed as a closer.  Unless everyone else falls flat on their face, he wont Brian Wilson or Kevin Gregg the situation either.

Ziegler’s a solid pitcher, and a nice weapon to have, but he’s best suited as a situational pitcher.

Whoever wins the closers gig, will benefit from the stadium, defense, and improved offense of the Athletics.

Photo Courtesy of Ztil301 & Kimberly*, Flickr

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