relief pitcher rankings

Holding Down The Fort, A Holds Report.

Some fantasy baseball providers are idiots; not just idiots, but enablers to even larger idiots.  Somehow Holds have made their way into fantasy baseball, and for some screwed up reason commissioners decide to click the Holds check box without even understanding what exactly a hold is.

What exactly is a hold in baseball?

To earn a hold, a pitcher must:

1. enters the game in a save situation; that is, one of the following three conditions applies:

• his team has a lead of no more than three runs, and there are at least three outs remaining
• the potential tying run is either on base, at bat, or on deck
• there are at least three innings remaining in the game

2. records at least one out;
3. leaves the game without his team having relinquished the lead at any point.

Wikipedia Link

If Mr. Cracker Jack can enter a 2-1 game, strike out the first batter, walk the bases full, get pulled and still earn a save, so long as he didn’t allow a run.  Great Stat.

With that said, who earns these bastardly stats?

Late Inning Relievers who:

1. …pitch the 7th or 8th Inning.
2. …pitch on a good club.
3. …are left handed.

When you draft a player for holds, you generally want someone that won’t kill your ratios. However, quite a few of these HOLD specialists really aren’t that great of pitchers.

Here are the Holds Leaders for 2008 and 2007

2008

Player	IP	W	SV	K	HLD	ERA	WHIP	K:BB
Scot Shields (LAA – RP)	63.1	6	4	64	31	2.7	1.34	2.21
Kyle McClellan (StL – RP)	75.2	2	1	59	30	4.04	1.39	2.27
Carlos Mármol (ChC – RP)	87.1	2	7	114	30	2.68	0.93	2.78
Dan Wheeler (TB – RP)	66.1	5	13	53	26	3.12	0.99	2.41
Dámaso Marte (NYY – RP)	65	5	5	71	25	4.02	1.2	2.73
Rafael Pérez (Cle – RP)	76.1	4	2	86	25	3.54	1.18	3.74
Eddie Guardado (Tex – RP)	56.1	4	4	33	25	4.15	1.22	1.74
J.C. Romero (Phi – RP) NA	59	4	1	52	24	2.75	1.34	1.37
Scott Downs (Tor – RP)	70.2	0	5	57	24	1.78	1.15	2.11
Arthur Rhodes (Cin – RP)	35.1	4	2	40	24	2.04	1.25	2.5
Hideki Okajima (Bos – RP)	62	3	1	60	23	2.61	1.16	2.61
Tony Peña (Ari – RP)	72.2	3	3	52	23	4.33	1.33	3.06
Heath Bell (SD – RP)	78	6	0	71	23	3.58	1.21	2.54
Will Ohman (LAD – RP)	58.2	4	1	53	23	3.68	1.24	2.41
Doug Brocail (Hou – RP)	68.2	7	2	64	22	3.93	1.22	3.05
Chad Qualls (Ari – RP)	73.2	4	9	71	22	2.81	1.07	3.94
Octavio Dotel (CWS – RP)	67	4	1	92	21	3.76	1.21	3.17
Taylor Buchholz (Col – RP) DL	66.1	6	1	56	21	2.17	0.95	3.11
Ramón Ramírez (Bos – RP)	71.2	3	1	70	21	2.64	1.23	2.26
Ron Mahay (KC – RP)	64.2	5	0	49	21	3.48	1.39	1.69
Duaner Sánchez (SD – RP)	58.1	5	0	44	21	4.32	1.32	1.91
Chad Bradford (TB – RP) DL	59.1	4	0	17	21	2.12	1.25	1.13
Pedro Feliciano (NYM – RP)	53.1	3	2	50	21	4.05	1.56	1.92
Matt Thornton (CWS – RP)	67.1	5	1	77	20	2.67	1	4.05
Matt Guerrier (Min – RP)	76.1	6	1	59	20	5.19	1.59	1.59

2007

Player	IP	W	SV	K	HLD	ERA	WHIP	K:BB
Brandon Lyon (Det – RP)	74	6	2	40	35	2.68	1.24	1.82
Heath Bell (SD – RP)	93.2	6	2	102	34	2.02	0.96	3.4
Derrick Turnbow (Tex – RP) NA	68	4	1	84	33	4.63	1.32	1.83
Jon Rauch (Ari – RP)	87.1	8	4	71	33	3.61	1.1	3.38
Jonathan Broxton (LAD – RP)	82	4	2	99	32	2.85	1.15	3.96
Scot Shields (LAA – RP)	77	4	2	77	31	3.86	1.23	2.33
Rafael Betancourt (Cle – RP)	79.1	5	3	80	31	1.47	0.76	8.89
Tony Peña (Ari – RP)	85.1	5	2	63	30	3.27	1.1	2.03
Hideki Okajima (Bos – RP)	69	3	5	63	27	2.22	0.97	3.71
Ryan Franklin (StL – RP)	80	4	1	44	25	3.04	1.01	4
J.C. Romero (Phi – RP) NA	56.1	2	1	42	24	1.92	1.4	1.05
Justin Speier (LAA – RP)	50	2	0	47	24	2.88	0.96	3.92
Casey Janssen (Tor – RP) DL	72.2	2	6	39	24	2.35	1.2	1.95
Scott Downs (Tor – RP)	58	4	1	57	24	2.17	1.22	2.38
George Sherrill (Bal – RP)	45.2	2	3	56	22	2.36	0.99	3.29
Bob Howry (SF – RP)	81.1	6	8	72	22	3.32	1.17	3.79
Aaron Heilman (ChC – RP)	86	7	1	63	22	3.03	1.07	3.15
Jamie Walker (Bal – RP)	61.1	3	7	41	21	3.23	1.21	2.41
Frank Francisco (Tex – RP)	59.1	1	0	49	21	4.55	1.6	1.29
Scott Linebrink (CWS – RP)	70.1	5	1	50	21	3.71	1.32	2
Chad Qualls (Ari – RP)	82.2	6	5	78	21	3.05	1.32	3.12
Brian Shouse (TB – RP)	47.2	1	1	32	21	3.02	1.26	2.29
Chad Bradford (TB – RP) DL	64.2	4	2	29	19	3.34	1.44	1.81
Saul Rivera (Was – RP)	93	4	3	64	19	3.68	1.4	1.52
Mike MacDougal (CWS – RP)	42.1	2	0	39	19	6.8	1.96	1.18

.

Looking at these numbers, what can we gather? A good team helps, but it’s much more about opportunity. It’s also a pain in the ass to predict who will do well, unless their role of setup man is guaranteed. We can also gather that Holds is a really unnecessary statistic.

Lefties that come in for a batter or two, and then get out of there, are just as valuable as great pitchers.

So who has a shot at doing well this year?

Solid Bets:

Scott Shields & Jose Arredondo – LA Angels

Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs

Dan Wheeler – Tampa Bay Rays

Scott Downs – Toronto Blue Jays

Tony Pena – Arizona Diamondbacks

Hideki Okajima – Boston Red Sox

Rafael Perez – Cleveland Indians

J.J. Putz – New York Mets

Ryan Franklin – St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Guerrier – Minnesota Twins

Kyle McClellan – St. Louis Cardinals

The Next Tier

Ryan Madson – Philadelphia Phillies

Rafael Soriano – Atlanta Braves

Scott Linebrink – Chicago White Sox

Rafael Betancourt – Cleveland Indians

J.P. Howell – Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Thorton – Chicago White Sox

Brandon Lyon – Detroit Tigers

Juan Cruz – Kansas City Royals

Joe Beimel – Washington Nationals

Jesse Carlson – Toronto Blue Jays

Edwar Ramirez – New York Yankees

John Grabow – Pittsburgh Pirates

Jeremy Affeldt – San Francisco Giants

C.J. Wilson – Texas Rangers

Who Knows.. Maybe worth the risk.

Renyel Pinto – Florida Marlins

Hong-Chih Kuo – Los Angeles Dodgers

LaTroy Hawkins – Houston Astros

Jesse Crain – Minnesota Twins

Cla Meredith – San Diego Padres

Brian Bruney – New York Yankees

Jerry Blevins – Oakland Athletics

Mark Lowe – Seattle Mariners

Eddie Guadardo – Texas Rangers

I did not enjoy putting this list together at all, and I hope to have listed at least 75% of the guys that finish in the top-25 holds by years’ end.

The question you should ask yourself when drafting holds, is where else can the player contribute.  A lot of the better pitchers will contribute to your ratios and strikeouts, whereas the guys on good teams will contribute to your W totals.

Relief Pitchers – 2009 Fantasy Baseball, RP Rankings

Greatness on the field doesn’t always translate into greatness in the fantasy baseball world.  Nowhere is it more prevalent than the relief-pitcher slots that you’re league employs.

Obviously, the RP and P slots in your league should contribute to the SV category but whether or not you pay for saves is up for debate.  Like all pitchers, relief pitchers are prone to injuries.  To win your league, you’re going to have to have  to cope with some risk.  Some people draft young kids and sleepers, others spend money on saves.

As with any situation in fantasy baseball that contains a great deal of uncertainty there are a lot of bargains to be had.  Without further adieu, the rankings.

1. Jonathan Papelbon, Boston Red Sox.

Does this need an explanation? Great Team, Great Stuff, Stiff Hold on the Job, 10+ K per 9, and solid ratios.

2. Joe Nathan, Minnesota Twins

Five years of ’round about 40 Saves.  Valuing consistency among closers is risky business, as they’re just one injury away.

Nathan will put up an ERA of about 2.00, and a WHIP under 1.00.  He’s getting older, and one of these days his arm is going to abandon him.  He’s probably got about a year and a half left in him.

His strike-out numbers have taken a dip over the past couple years, as he’s went from a 12+ K per 9, to under 10 the last two years.

3. Joakim Soria, Kansas City Royals

Sonia’s on the other end of the spectrum from Nathan. Here we have a young, dominant pitcher that should improve.  The only problem we have here is the team he plays on, which isn’t as big of a problem as it seems.

Even the worst teams still win games, and the games they win will probably be close enough to result in save opportunities.

Soria’s K numbers should float between 9 and 10 strikeouts per nine, and there’s a decent chance he’ll put up a WHIP at least similar to his 2008, 0.86.

Soria’s command numbers of about 4 strike-outs per walk, and only two and a half walks per nine are some of the best in the business.

4. Francisco Rodriguez, New York Mets

62 is a lot of saves, and there’s no way in hell he’ll come close to that number again. K-Rod is a great talent, but 4.5 BB per 9IP isn’t elite. His K per 9 also declined in 2008, falling to a five-year low of 10.14.

Rodriguez is an elite talent, but the drastic increase in WHIP to 1.30 is worrisome.

5. Mariano Rivera, New York Yankees

I’m not sure what happened in 2007, but Rivera certainly fixed it in 2008 reverting back to the Rivera we all know and love.

Rivera walked less than a batter per nine last year, and continued to strike-out almost ten batters per nine.

The only question here is health.  Maybe grab a back-up plan?

6. Brad Lidge, Philadelphia Phillies

The Dirty Dirty has returned.  Lidge lost a click off his fastball and slider, but he started throwing his slider 56% of the time, which is up from a recorded high of 43.7%.

While Lidge’s BB/9 is sitting at an unsightly 4.54, his 11.94 K/9 makes up for it. He brings a 1.20ish WHIP to the table, and pitches for a good team. Watch-out for the post World Series hype, and draft him based on his numbers.

Lidge has a shit-tonne of risk associated with him, as he’s been known to accidentally flip the suck-switch.  Unfortunately, the guaranteed closer pool is pretty shallow this year so Lidge sits here.

7. Carlos Marmol, Chicago Cubs

I <3 the Carlos Marmol, and the Cubbies are looking solid this year.  In reality, Marmol should have snagged the Closers job from Wood last year but instead dominated the late, arguably more important, inning(s).

11.75 K/9 and 4.2BB/9 sound about right.  Marmol could drastically increase his K:BB ratio with the right approach.

Marmol greatly increased his velocity last year, notching his Fastball up about .5 MPH, his slider 1.4mph, and his curveball which he almost never uses anymore 2.7mph.

There’s no reason to believe Marmol is anymore of an injury risk than your standard closer.  I’d imagine he’d have better value than the Kerry Wood of last year, so bid or draft accordingly.

8. Jonathan Broxton, Los Angeles Dodgers

The future is here, and it’s hefty.  Broxton brings about a 3.00 ERA to the table, with room for improvement. He’s got a sub-1.20 WHIP, a 97MPH fastball, and a 87.7mph slider.

Things look good, and for a fire-baller he keeps his BB/9 at a respectable 3.50.

I always worry when players drastically increase their velocity as it could mean trouble in the long-run. Broxton and Marmol have the possibility of becoming top-5 closers, top-3 closers, top-closers.

9. Brian Fuentes, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

I’m not a huge Fuentes fan, and I haven’t the slightest clue as to whether or not Save Opportunities are a consistant, or somewhat predictable, statistic.

With that said, Fuentes manned-up and got to almost 12 K/9 while maintaining a 1.10WHIP in Colorado.

The switch from Colorado to Anaheim will help Fuentes more from the perspective of switching leagues rather than from a Park Factor improvement.

Fuentes, like Lidge, has a suck-switch and a couple more than capable replacements. Scott Shields, and Jose Arredondo both have “closer stuff”

10. Kerry Wood, Cleveland Indians

He’s an injury risk, a big injury risk, but he also put up one of the better K:BB ratios last year. 11.40 K/9 and 2.44 BB/9 resulted in a 4.67 K/BB.

Wood finally got back some of the velocity he’d misplaced in 2008 registering an average fastball of almost 95mph.

Cleveland looks to be improved this year, and I’ve got them picked to compete with the Tigers in the crazy-tough AL-Central.

11. Bobby Jenks, Chicago White Sox

Bobby Jenks got cash-money over the off-season and for roughly 1.72 seconds he had the highest-first-contract-for-relief-pitcher-guh? until Papelbon got paid.

61 IP and 38 strike-outs = FTW?

Jenks should return to his 8ish K per 9 and float around the 1.20 WHIP area.  If Jenks stays at that miserable 5.5K per 9, he best be keepin his WHIP in the sub-1.10 level.

Approach with caution.

12. Joba Chamberlain, New York Yankees

This is supposed to be a “Closers” list, valuing the possibility of attaining saves over a consistant Holds guy.

Joba does neither, so why’s he on this bloody list? Because he’s not a starter, and not a closer.  He’s just a pitcher.  Obviously, one of the gents in the Yankees rotation is going to break-down (cough cough AJ Burnett) and Joba will more than likely be moved into a starters role.

My prediction though, Phil Hughes starts the season as the 5. The value you get from Joba in the ‘pen and Hughes in the rotation is about 8-trillion times more than the reverse.

Joba will more than likely end up in the SP rankings as well, but at this point I’m leaning towards him starting in the bullpen.

13. Jose Valverde, Houston Astros

Valverde is the king of the “good-bad” cycle of awesomeness for a relief pitcher.

‘03-2.15 ERA, ‘04-4.25 ERA, ‘05-2.44 ERA, ‘06-5.84 ERA, ‘07-2.66 ERA, ‘08-3.38 ERA.

Last year wasn’t as awful as we’ve come to expect, and Valverde has the possibility of turning in a top-5 closer season: Saving 40 Games, K’ing 10 per 9, walking under 4 per 9 and posting ’round about 1.20-WHIP.

Valverde and Jenks can, and possibly should, be switched in yours and these rankings.

14. Matt Capps, Pittsburgh Pirates

Good Pitcher. Bad Team. Bad Young Team. There’s a couple quality young relief pitching prospects floating behind Capps in the Pirates Pen.

Capps doesn’t strike out 10 per 9, he strikes-out 6. What makes this incredibly attractive is that he only walks one or two batters per 9 which results in a dirty, dirty K:BB ratio.

There’s no reason to believe that Capps can’t go sub-1.00 WHIP, and the only thing keeping him from being an elite closer is his lack of strike-outs.

He did lose a good mile or two per hour off all of his pitches last year, which means he may have be protecting a somewhat injured armed.

15. B.J. Ryan, Toronto Blue Jays

Lefty-closer with a massive injury risk who pitches out of a very good bullpen. The possibility of saving 40 games, with around 10 K per 9 is definitely there, but buyer beware. Nice BJ Ryan Article Here.

16. Francisco Cordero, Cincinnati Reds

Cordero’s first season as a Red lead to an increased walk rate (4.86 BB/9) and a decreased strike-out rate (9.98 K/9) and a massive WHIP increase (1.41WHIP) which isn’t a good sign.

It’s hard to find 30 Saves though.

17. Trevor Hoffman, Milwaukee Brewers

An oldy but a goody? He increased his K-rate to a respectable K per Inning after a steady decline from 2003 (11K/9) to 2007 (6.91K/9).

There is a lot of age related risk here, and there’s also the risk of going from an extreme pitchers park to Milwaukee. However, Hoffman’s WHIP hasn’t been above 1.20 since, like, his rookie season of 1993 when he pitched 90 innings.

18. Heath Bell, San Diego Padres

Bell looks to take the spot vacated by Hoffman as San Diego’s closer. Bell will get to about 9K/9 or a K per Inning. His WHIP should float around 1.20, and his ERA around the  low-threes.

At this point, Bell is definitely worth the risk and if you require further reading check out this article, that deals with Bell’s ridiculous drop in horizontal movement on his fastball.

I’m really not a fan of anyone else in the San Diego bullpen for the closers role.  Don’t get me wrong, there’s a lot of talent there, but no one has the stuff to excel in the same way that Heath Bell does.

19. Huston Street, Colorado Rockies

Head-ache alert. Street needed out of Oakland in the worst kind of way, after turning on the suck-switch about halfway through the year.

There’s a lot of risk and reward here; although the reward is tempered by Coors field.

Expect somewhere between his ridiculous 2007 numbers, and his lackluster 2008 numbers which comes in at about a K per Inning, 3 BB per 9, and a 3 K:BB ratio.

Which roughly translates into 1.15-1.25 WHIP, 3.25-3.30 ERA, and 25 SV.

20. Brian Wilson, San Francisco Giants

He aint pretty he just looks that way: 41 saves?

Wilson’s numbers show how volatile the save market is, but really that 1.40+ WHIP really should clue you into what the hell is going on.

Bill James Prediction Model has Wilson at 46 Saves, and Marcel has him at 20.  It’s a bit of a gap. All of the projection/prediction models have him at about a 1.38 WHIP.

Wilson is worthwhile drafting if you combine him with a stand-out 8th inning guy.

21. Frank Francisco, Texas Rangers

Franky had a solid season last year coming in at 12 K per 9, 3.69BB per 9 and a 1.15 WHIP to go with 5 Saves, and a 3.13 ERA.

The six blown saves shouldn’t concern you, as blown saves are both confusing and annoying when you’re evaluating someone who operated in multiple relief roles.

20-25 Saves, with a 1.30WHP seems about right, no?

22. Joey Devine, Oakland Athletics

Devine is my favourite coming out of the Oakland Athletics’ bullpen as Zeigler just doesn’t have “pure closer” stuff.

Joey Devine had a silly-stupid .59 ERA to go with a .83 WHIP in 45 IP last year.

Typical closer stuff with a 94mph fastball, and a 81mph slider.  Devine, while inexperienced is probably your best bet out of the Oakland ‘pen.

23. Chris Perez, St. Louis Cardinals

Perez is a closer-in-waiting, as he brings the heat at 95+ mph. Whether or not he can transfer that into a full-time gig is up in the air.

He’s got some control issues, and is dropping below 2.00 in the K:BB area, which isn’t a good sign.

Perez has to compete with someone who hucks harder than him, Jason Motte.  I tend to believe that Perez holds onto the job long enough to nab 20 Saves with good strike-out numbers.

24. Matt Lindstrom, Florida Marlins

Lindstrom is a flame-thrower (avg. fastball: 97mph) that is, like all hard-tossers, prone to control issues.

He’s got the best bet to nab the closers role breaking camp. However, if he cant massively improve on his 6.45 K per 9 (FTW?) and 1.45 WHIP, he’ll give that role up pretty gosh darn quick.

25. Mike Gonzalez, Atlanta Braves

If only Gonzalez and Soriano could be combined into an all-star closer, with the capability of throwing 95mph from both hands — the Braves would be back into John Smoltz-closer area.

Gonzalez, a lefty, has some major injury concerns but also strikes out almost 12 per 9, and only walks 3 or 4 per 9. You gotta figure on a WHIP under 1.30, but above 1.20.

Gonzalez, if he stays healthy, will be a steal at this point.

26. Brandon Lyon, Detroit Tigers

Don’t like Brandon Lyon, but he’ll get you round about 20 Saves with mediocre peripherals.

1.35 WHIP, about 5 to 6 K per 9…

Give him 5 more years, and he’ll be Todd Jones v2.0

27. Chad Qualls, Arizona Diamondbacks

Qualls seems to have the Diamondbacks gig, as I write this.  However, the ass-end of the Diamondbacks bullpen seems to be pretty solid. Between Qualls, Pena, Rauch, and the possibility of Scherzer or Petit sneaking in there, anyone could steal the job.

When you look back, you realize how good that Astros bullpen was.

Qualls posted a solid 1.07 WHIP, and 8.67 K/9 while floating around 93ish with his fastball.  His fastball also has great movement on it

I tend to think that Pena’s going to finish the season as the closer, as his 95mph stuff screams closer.  The only problem is that Pena’s blistering fastball doesn’t particularly translate into an awesome K-rate (6.5ish)

28. Troy Percival, Tampa Bay Rays

There’s no reason to think that Troy Percival will hold onto the closers role the entire season.  Tampa’s got a great pen, and Percival is getting real old-like.

Assuming 40 Innings, and 20 Saves isn’t out of the question.  Even though Percival is one of the few pitchers born before 1970, he’s still putting up half decent K per 9 numbers.

This could be the year that Percival falls off the cliff, and with Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour,  or even JP Howell takes over the spot.

29. Chris Ray, Baltimore Orioles

Chris Ray has all sorts of talent, but managed to hurt-kill his shoulder-arm. He’s the guy who notched 33 saves in 2006, and then improved on his K numbers in 2007 before going down.

George Sherrill just got paid as Baltimore opted to avoid arbitration.  However, Sherrill seems better suited for late relief than the closers role (left-handed closers are lame).

Anyways, I’m banking on 20+ saves from Ray, and 12-15 from Sherrill.  Seem about right?

30. Brad Ziegler, Oakland Athletics

Ziegler is one of the nicer gents in the big leagues.  However, he’s a bit of a ROOGY (right-handed one out guy)

Instead of explaining all of the lovely indicators that point to why Ziegler will come back to earth, I’ll link once again to my favourite website: Fangraphs

31. Joel Hanrahan, Washington Nationals

Hanrahan has got the gig in Washington until further notice, and that’s pretty much all you need to know at this point.

Hanrahan has some serious, serious, control issues. He managed to knock his BB/9 down from almost 7 (phew) to a repsectable? 4.5 BB per 9 last year.

Expect a WHIP around 1.40ish, and a fastball that touches 95-96mph.

However, when a player adds 4-5mph to his stuff maybe you should ask yourself, HOWZ?!

32. Dan Wheeler, Tampa Bay Rays

Wheeler appears next in line behind Percival. Wheelers’ numbers were somewhat goofy last year as his K’s declined, walks increased, yet he threw up a sub-1.00 WHIP.

Wheelers got good stuff, and is waiting in-line until Percival gets hurt. Wheelers got 4 solid pitches (FB, CB, SL, CH) and while he’s bound to come back down to earth as his Batting Average for Balls in Play (BABIP) regresses to the .280 area rather than his 2008 numbers of .202.

Expect Wheeler to put up decent ratios, a half decent amount of K’s, and somewhere between 10 and 15 Saves.

33. George Sherrill, Baltimore Orioles

Here’s Sherrill! It’ll be a dog-fight between Chris Ray and Sherrill. If Sherrill goes and drops a 1.50 WHIP on the world again, you’ll at least be able to ditch him for the next big thing.

Otherwise, you can probably expect a handful of saves (10ish) and a K:BB that’s better than last year’s 1.76 (woops).

Sherrill’s got talent, but I’d prefer a healthy Chris Ray.

34. Tyler Walker, Seattle Mariners

Walker appears to have the job, in….Seattle. Really, how many saves does that mean if he keeps the job the entire year? 22? 25?

I’d like to see Brandon Morrow here, or even Mark Lowe. I’m banking on Lowe lowering his WHIP to at least a sub-1.50 level which he can do by walking less than 5 batters per 9.

Let’s say Walker gets an ugly 15 Saves.

35. Rafael Soriano, Atlanta Braves

I’m sure Seattle would like to have Soriano back at this point, or maybe not. The entire Braves pen has injury issues, or control issues, or both.

Soriano has nasty stuff, and the potential to put up big numbers. In 2007, he showcased what could be with a 95mph fastball.  A strike-out per inning or more, and only 2 to 3 walks per nine, help Soriano have a shot at a 1.00ish WHIP.

Soriano’s been lucky with a .200-something BABIP, but even if that regresses Soriano’s still got a shot at being great. If Soriano can snag the closers job, and stay healthy all year — He’s got a shot at being a top-10 closer.

36. Joel Zumaya, Detroit Tigers

Zoom-Zoom? Yes, he throws 97-98mph. Injury-Prone? Yes, he loves the guitar hero.

In his first year eligible for salary arbitration, Zumaya inked a monster 735,000 dollar deal for 1 year — FTW?

Zumaya’s got closer stuff, he’s seriously got to work on his command though. The Detroit bullpen’s a mess and the only thing we know for sure is that Lyon, Rodney, and Zumaya will all get a shot to prove their worth at sometime during the 2009 season.

While Rodney’s the safer bet to get to 15 Saves, I’m putting my money on Zoom-Zoom.

37. Chad Cordero, Washington.. Free Agents?

Cordero will be holding auditions for potential suitors at some point during the next week or so

Cordero will raise his stock on the right team, as well as lowering one of the guys on the list above.

There was a time when Cordero was one of the top RP prospects in the entire game.  He’s got the stuff.

There’s a huge risk/reward possibility here.  Great late round flier if you’re doing your draft before the results of the Chad Cordero auditions are released to the public.

38. Jose Arredondo, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Buckets of talent, a good fastball, and a great splitter.  I’d prefer to see Arredondo closing over Scot Shields if it comes down to it.

I’d have to say the 10 wins is probably a fluke.

39. Taylor Bucholz, Colorado Rockies

The Good: Great talent. Former top-prospect. Sub-3.00 BB per 9. Good K numbers. Nice WHIP, Good ERA.

The Bad: Plays at Coors and is currently behind Street on the Depth Chart.

Bucholz makes sense as a late inning / important situation / high leverage spot, and it’d make sense for the Rockies to keep him there rather than push him into the “closers” role.

40. Leo Nunez, Florida Marlins

He’s a tiny little fireballer ( 6′1 – 175lbs) who throws 95mph. He did up his velocity 3mph last year, which smells fishy? If he comes into camp looking like Rod Beck, something is definitely fish.

Nunez has a shot at the closers role, but like everyone in the Florida pen he’s got some control issues and only posted 5K per 9 last year.

41. Justin Masterson, Boston Red Sox

I like Masterson in a relief role more than a starters role at this point, but he’ll eventually move into the rotation.

In a shallow league, there’s no point in drafting relievers that don’t contribute in the SV category but in normal leagues he’s probably worth a spot right after the “sure-fire” closers.

He still walks too many compared to his strike-outs, posting a 1.70 K:BB ratio.  He should fix this with a full year under his belt, and it’s a safe bet to assume at least a 2.50 ratio this year.

42. Jason Motte, St. Louis Cardinals

I addressed Chris Perez up top, and now onto his main competition for “ridiculously hard throwing risky closer bet of the year” award.

He only pitched 11 Innings in the big leagues last year, and Tony LaRussa is one cautious mofo — the kid can throw 97 though.

43. Fernando Rodney, Detroit Tigers

The third peice of the Detroit Tigers mess of a bullpen.  Might be a cheap way to get 10 saves. Before Joel Zumaya was the closer of the future, Fernando Rodney occupied that spot.

44. Ryan Madson, Philadelphia Phillies

Madson’s got all sorts of dirty in his repetoire.  He’s behind Lidge — that’s his only downfall.

Here’s another reliever that magically added velocity.

Madson is one of the few guys that can remain an 8th inning guy, but will contribute to your squad.

…and Lidge could always turn on the suck-switch again.

45. Manny Corpas, Colorado Rockies

I have Corpas below Bucholz and Street, but he does have past-closer experience.  He could be next in line for the closers role, and there’s the potential for stealing 10 or so SVs with Corpas.

Corpas posted career lows last year, and his numbers across the board began to suck it up.

46. Kevin Gregg, Chicago Cubs

I dont think Marmol will get hurt, nor do I think he’ll suck up the joint.  This doesn’t leave any room for Gregg to contribute in the SV category.

47. Jensen Lewis, Cleveland Indians

Lewis has got solid stuff, but so do most of the guys in the Cleveland Indians bullpen.  Any one of  Lewis, Perez, Kobayashi or Betancourt, could nab saves when Kerry Wood goes down.

Wood’s bound to go down for at least one DL-Stint, so pick your poison for a free 5-8 SVs.

48. Hong-Chih Kuo, Los Angeles Dodgers

Broxton is far from a proven thing, and Kuo looks pretty good. He’ll bring it at 93mph, which is up from previous highs.

Kuo’s ERA of 2.14, and WHIP of 1.01 are real nice to look at.  Toss in 10K/9 and a great 2.36BB/9 and you’v egot yourself one hell of a sleeper.

Look for Kuo to play a major part of 2009 Save Competition, if Broxton even slips the littlest of little-bits.

49. Grant Balfour, Tampa Bay Rays

Better in the 7th or 8th, and Maddon’s a smart man. Throws hard (94-96) and if he keeps his walk rate low, he could play a serious part in the Rays bullpen when Percival goes down.

Last year’s post-season showcased his propensity to fall apart, and force things.  If he walks people, he’s not worth rostering.

50. David Aardsma, Seattle Mariners

Mariners’ bullpen is awful and Aardsma throws hard enough to earn a shot.

51. Mark Lowe, Seattle Mariners

…ditto

52. J.J. Putz, New York Mets

…ditto.. oh wait, Putz is a Met. Putz went from top-tier closer, to oft-injured scrub.  After paying K-Rod 8-trillionz of dollars, the only way Putz has value is if K-Rod hurts himself.

Strangely enough, it wouldn’t surprise me to see K-Rod fall apart and hurt himself in May allowing Putz to post all-star numbers.  Karma. Sweet Sweet Karma.

53. Brandon Morrow, Seattle Mariners

I like Morrow, sorta-kinda.  He’s here as a reliever, not a starter.  He’s probably going to be a starter, and he’ll be more valuable as a starter in the short term.

In the long term, I tend to think Morrow projects as a pretty devastating closer once the Mariners realize he can’t throw strikes.

54. Tony Pena, Arizona Diamondbacks

Pena has a shot at 10 Saves this year.  He doesn’t strike out as many as you’d assume, considering he’s got a 95mph fastball. He makes up for this by only walking about 2 per 9, and posting a 3ish K:BB ratio.  Goodtimes.

55. Carlos Villanueva, Milwaukee Brewers

Lots of uncertainty here, maybe Villanueva gets a shot. If not, he’ll still put up decent totals in spot-start duty, and may just earn a rotation spot.

56. Ramon Ramirez, Boston Red Sox

If Papelbon is out for any length of time, Ramirez gets the job.  If it’s a short DL-stint Boston has other options.  Ramirez has got stuff: good fastball, slider, change combo.

57. Scott Shields, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Might have a shot at sneaking in saves, lets bank on 6 Saves in 2009.

58. Santiago Casilla, Oakland Athletics

Casilla had a nice little run last year where he was almost unhittable.  He’s solid enough in a foggy A’s bullpen.

59. Eddie Guadardo, Texas Rangers

Could steal the saves job from Franky Francisco — Pray he doesn’t.

60. Damaso Marte, New York Yankees

I guess it could happen?

61. Joe Rauch, Arizona Diamondbacks

Messy, Messy Bullpen.  Not a sexy pick, but could preform.

62. Rafael Perez, Cleveland Indians

At his best, he can be dominant.  If Kerry Wood goes down, it’s going to be a free-for-all.

63. Tyler Yates, Pittsburgh Pirates

Yates has got some talent (95mph fastball) but he walks too damn many (5 BB/9)

64. Kyle Farnsworth, Kansas City Royals

Soria’s got a firm grip on the job even though he’s contract does have a claus whereby it’s starting to look like KC wants to make him a starter.

65. Cla Meredith, San Diego Padres

Not a fireballer, but gets shit did. Next in line behind Heath Bell?

66. Craig Hansen, Pittsburgh Pirates

Part of the Manny / Bay trade.  Nice peice and he’s got a shot if Capps goes down.

67. Jesse Crain, Minnesota Twins

Nathan’s getting old, and Neshek is out for another year.

68. Octavio Dotel, Chicago White Sox

Seriously? Yes, he’s got a rubber-arm.

69. Jared Burton, Cincinnati Reds

I like him behind Cordero. He’s not a safe-bet, but he’s worth a late look.

70. Takashi Saito, Boston Red Sox

He’s the short-term option for Boston.

71. Edwar Ramirez, New York Yankees

…and done.  Rivera could decide to stop pitching.

74. Steven Shell, Washington Nationals

I buy it. Great, Cheap, late round selection with a half-decent shot at getting the closers job.

Okay, that’s it. Enjoy and COMMENT!

Even if your comment is just, “holy shit, ur a fucking retard. I banged your mom” give me a shout to let me know you got to the end.

Photo Courtesy of       Dan Cox   Flickr