As FantasyRundown said, better late than never — Average outfielders pop up every year and it’s a pretty easy to fill your roster. Because of this, I like to go with high upside players unless you’re in a very, very deep league.

1. Ryan Braun (27) – Easy one

2. Andrew McCutchen (24) – The speed will be around for a lot longer than anyone else on this list

3. Carlos Gonzalez (25) -- I’m terrified of Carlos Gonzalez. I think he could just as easily return to his pre-2010 self.

4. Matt Kemp (26) — Starting to put together a solid career.

5. Jason Heyward (21) – I’m not sure what kind of fantasy player he turns into, but it’ll be a good one.

6. Carl Crawford (29) –

7. Justin Upton (23) — Still a lot of room for growth

8. Shin-Soo Choo (28) – One of my favorite picks out there.

9.  Josh Hamilton (30) -- Injury plagued, or at least it feels that way.

10. Mike Stanton (21) – Definitely a risk/reward pick

11. Hunter Pence (28)

12. Nelson Cruz (30)

13. Matt Holliday  (31)

14. Jay Bruce (24)

15. Andre Ethier (29)

16. Drew Stubbs (26) — I’m worried with him here. Another risk-reward guy. Honestly, I’d be more comfortable with him around 25.

17. Jose Bautista (30)

18. Alex Rios (30)

19. B.J. Upton (26)

20. Colby Rasmus (24)

21. Jacoby Ellsbury (27)

22. Jayson Werth (32)

23. Chris Young (27)

24. Nick Markakis (27)

25. Delmon Young (25)

26. Shane Victorino (30)

27. Jose Tabata (22?)

28. Ichiro Suzuki (37) – I don’t know how much longer he can do it.

29. Ben Zobrist (30)

30. Corey Hart (29)

31. Grady Sizemore (28) -- Bounceback. Bounce Back. Five years left of well above average play.

32. Travis Snider (23) – Huge year.

33. Curtis Granderson (30)

34. Domonic Brown (23) – 100% projection. I haven’t liked what I’ve seen and then he went and injured himself. I’m definitely trading for the kid rather than drafting him.

35. Brett Gardner (27)

36. Adam Lind (27)

37. Angel Pagan (29)

38. Carlos Quentin (28)

39. Austin Jackson (24)

40. Adam Jones (25)

41. Nick Swisher (30)

42. Desmond Jennings (24) – Speed Kills.

43. Bryce Harper (19) – Have fun sitting on him for two years, but here’s the spot to get him.

44. Bobby Abreu (37)

45. Jason Bay (32)

46. Michael Bourn (28)

47. Denard Span (27)

48. Vernon Wells (32)

49. Carlos Lee (35)

50. Mike Trout (19) — See Bryce Harper. The only difference is that Trout has the speed to make his fantasy transition a bit smoother even if he struggles.

51. Dexter Fowler (25)

52. Andres Torres (33)

53. Logan Morrison (23)

54. Tyler Colvin (25)

55. Aubrey Huff (34)

56. Torii Hunter (35)

57. Juan Pierre (33)

58. Rajai Davis (30)

59. Jason Kubel (29)

60. Vladimir Guerrero (36)

61. Carlos Beltran (34)

62. Peter Bourjos (23)

63. Raul Ibanez (39)

64. Nyjer Morgan (30)

65. Matt LaPorta (26)

66. Cameron Maybin (24)

67. Chris Coghlan (26)

68. Fernando Martinez (23) — He has been around forever. Eventually he’ll be a star.

69. Julio Borbon (25)

70. Alfonso Soriano (35)

71. Magglio Ordonez (37)

72. Manny Ramirez (39)

73. Marlon Byrd (33)

74. Luke Scott (32)

75. Coco Crisp (31)

76. David Murphy (29)

77. Alex Gordon (27)

78. Lorenzo Cain (25)

79. Michael Taylor (26) — Sliding down boards.

80. David DeJesus (31)

81. Brett Jackson (22) – A great option. Overshadowed by Trout and Harper.

82. Nate McLouth (29)

83. Franklin Gutierrez (28)

84. J.D. Drew (35)

85. Seth Smith (28)

86. Josh Willingham (32)

87. Michael Brantley (24)

88. Will Venable (28)

89. Michael Morse (29)

90. Johnny Damon (37)

91. Ben Francisco (29)

92. Hideki Matsui (36)

93. Jordan Schafer

94. Jonny Gomes (30)

95. Roger Bernadina (27)

96. Lastings Milledge (26)

97. Kosuke Fukudome (34)

98. Jon Jay (26)

99. Matt Joyce (26)

100. Ryan Roberts

101. Cody Ross (30)

102. Brandon Allen (25) – I like him a lot more than most.

103. Conor Jackson (29)

104. Nolan Reimold (27)

105. Jeff Francoeur (27)

106. Kyle Blanks

107. Juan Rivera (32)

108. Melky Cabrera (26)

109. Scott Podsednik (35)

110. Ryan Ludwick (32)

111. Andruw Jones (34)

112. Brennan Boesch (26)

113. Jack Cust

114. Fred Lewis (25)

115. Pat Burrell (34)

116. Rick Ankiel (31)

117. Austin Kearns

118. Trevor Crowe (27)

119. Carlos Gomez (25)

120. Gerardo Parra (24)

121. Jeremy Hermida

122. Michael Saunders (24)

123. Michael Saunders

124. John Mayberry

125. Greg Halman

126. David Lough

127. Chris Heisey

128. Ryan Kalish (23)

129. Ryan Spilborghs (31)

130. Ryan Sweeney

131. Aaron Rowand (33)

132. Felix Pie (26)

133. Matt Diaz (33)

Again, the Yahoo! Player Pool confounds us with its brilliance. There are some very strange additions here.

I can’t explain just how much I want to rank Tulowitzki over Ramirez, but I don’t have the balls…

The most important thing to remember when drafting shortstops is that the position is thin and getting thinner. There just aren’t that many power-hitting shortstops any more. Teams are really focusing on defense and moving potential shortstops to the corners. Manny Machado *should* stick at shortstop, but he’s not in the player pool. Because of the lack of depth, a lot of the older players still have a bunch of value…

1. Hanley Ramirez — Age 27 – I think he’s my number one overall player at this point.

2. Troy Tulowitzki — Age 26 – He’s probably my number two.

3. Jose Reyes — Age 28 – I’d like to see some consistency.

4. Stephen Drew — Age 28 – Huge year for Drew. Huge year.

5. Elvis Andrus — Age 22 — I like Andrus, but…

6. Starlin Castro — Age 21 — You’d figure a 21-year old with a secured job would be higher, but his ceiling isn’t nearly as high as you’d expect. He doesn’t really have one dominant skill.

7. Alexei Ramirez — Age 29 – Lots of power. Lots of Speed. Lots of missing of the baseball.

8. Jimmy Rollins — Age 32 – I think he’s only got a couple years left.

9. Derek Jeter — Age 37 — He just keeps on trucking along.

10. Tsuyoshi Nishioka — Age 26 – I want to rank him higher…

11. Yunel Escobar — Age 28 — If the power’s back, he’s a bit higher.

12. Rafael Furcal — Age 33 — He gets injured a lot. He’s got a couple years left, but they won’t be healthy years.

13. Alcides Escobar — Age 24 – I think Escobar will steal a good deal of bases this year. There’s some value here, even if his best skill is defense.

14. J.J. Hardy — Age 28 — Great sleeper pick in Baltimore. Great. 25 HR aren’t out of the question.

15. Ian Desmond — Age 25 — I guess this is the make-or-break year.

16. Grant Green — Age 23 — He hasn’t played higher than advanced-A, but he’s got the tools to quickly advance.

17. Erick Aybar — Age 27 – Steady. Very Steady.

18. Reid Brignac — Age 25 — Meh.He could still develop into a keeper-worthy option. Maybe worth rolling the dice in 2011.

19. Asdrubal Cabrera — Age 25 — Not really a fan.

20. Omar Infante — Age 29 – Will more than likely lose his SS eligibility this year

21. Jhonny Peralta — Age 28 — I don’t know how much longer he can play SS.

22. Jose Iglesias — Age 21 — Hasn’t played higher than AA but his glove should allow him to advance well before his bat.

23. Dee Gordon — Age 22 — He hasn’t played higher than double-A, but in the past two years he’s stolen 125 bases. Probably a couple years out.

24. Ryan Theriot — Age 31 -- Eh. He’ll get the job done.

25. Miguel Tejada — Age 36 – I think he’s got 150 Games left. Maybe some this year and some next year.. who knows.

26. Mike Aviles — Age 30 – If you like empty averages…

27. Zack Cozart — Age 25 – There’s always been a lot to like about Cozart, but power wasn’t exactly his redeeming quality. In the past couple of years, he’s really improved in that department while sacrificing everything else.  Isn’t too far off…

28. Jason Bartlett — Age 31 – Boring.

29. Marco Scutaro — Age 35 – Boring.

30. Cliff Pennington — Age 27 — Boring.

31. Yuniesky Betancourt — Age 29 – Boring.

32. Alex Gonzalez — Age 34 — Marginally more interesting.

33. Orlando Cabrera — Age 36 – Should have a decent 2011.

34. Ruben Tejada — Age 21 — Why did the Mets promote him again?

35. Darwin Barney — Age 25 – Cubs.

36. Jed Lowrie — Age 26 — Red Sox.

37. Yamaico Navarro — Age 23 – Interesting Prospect. Good Body. Didn’t play particularly well last year.

38. Elliot Johnson — Age 27 – He stole 30 bases out of nowhere last year.

39. Chin-Lung Hu — Age 27 – I don’t know what happened here, but this former number one prospect has something.

Notes: I left off some one-year, pretty mediocre guys because I figured you were capable of deciding whether or not you wanted to keep a player that wouldn’t play for a couple years or simply draft a useful player. Some guys like Uribe and Keppinger were also left off because of their multi-position availability.

A lot of the top-notch third basemen are infinitely valuable elsewhere. At my own discretion, I’ve decided to simply not include some while including others. Martin Prado isn’t on the list; neither are Neil Walker, Polanco, Uribe, Tejada or Johnny Peralta. Omar Infante isn’t on the list and Ty Wigginton should probably be played at second base.

With that said, Emilio Bonafacio wasn’t on Yahoo’s list for some reason, but he should be the Marlins third basemen. I’m sure you remember his sub-.300 OBP that came with a tonne of steals (until regression caught up).

1. Evan Longoria — Age 25 — I don’t think there’s a question here. Well, there might be one question. When will the next guy on this list get some respect?

2. Ryan Zimmerman — Age 26 – I mean, c’mon.

3. David Wright — Age 28 – Yup. The steals are nice but will eventually disappear.

4. Alex Rodriguez — Age 35 – I have no clue when A-Rod will hang it up and I’d love to rank him lower, but production for even a couple more years still puts him right here.

5. Pedro Alvarez — Age 24 — Lots of risk here, but I’m a believer. I wouldn’t be surprised if he had a sophomore slump, but in the long term he’s the next generation of third basemen.

6. Jose Bautista — Age 30 — If Jose Bautista can hit 100 more home-runs, he’ll be a steal.

7. Mark Reynolds — Age 27 — Reynolds should like his new home and he should regress to his normal BA.

8. Pablo Sandoval — Age 24 — Pablo worried me last year, but apparently he’s dropped a bunch of weight and looks good.

9. Adrian Beltre — Age 32 – Three or four more productive years and Texas is a great park.

10. Mike Moustakas — Age 22 – He should be starting for the Royals today. The season hasn’t even began yet and he should still be starting. Hopefully he comes up at some point today. He stumbled a couple years ago but erased all doubts last year. Major. League. Ready.

11. Ian Stewart — Age 26 — Love him. I could see him in Mark Reynolds’ number seven spot, no problem.

12. Casey McGehee — Age 28 — Not really a fan, but he’s under thirty and Gamel has  no desire to push him.

13.  Aramis Ramirez — Age 33 – Ramirez has been dinged up. I don’t think he plays as deep into his thirties as some of the other top-tier hitters.

14. Michael Cuddyer — Age 32 – Does it all. Consistent.

15. Chase Headley — Age 27 – His ceiling is pretty limited, but he should progress a bit this year.

16. Lonnie Chisenhall — Age 22 — Young and talented. Hasn’t played above Double-A yet, but I think he’d hold his own in the show. Considering Cleveland’s third base options, I think Chisenhall makes it up this year.

17. Michael Young — Age 34 — Young also seems like his body’s about ready to shut down.

18. Jose Lopez — Age 31 – Here’s my intriguing pick of the draft. I think I’ll go back and rank Lopez in the 2nd Basemen at some point. Lopez’s swing and lack of discipline will probably fit Coors.

19. Edwin Encarnacion — Age 28 – He’s pretty bad at third base, but the power’s legit. Could be a break-out year.

20. Alex Gordon — Age 27 – He’ll play in the outfield and lose eligibility I’m sure, but I think it’s about time he got his act together.

21. Dayan Viciedo — Age 22 — Big boy. I don’t know if I would’ve brought him up last year, but I like him. You could roll the dice on him, I guess…

22. Matt Dominguez — Age 21 – Matt, Matt, Matt. The third base job in Florida is yours! You just have to beat out Emilio Bonafacio and Wes Helms. Come on, dude.

23. Chipper Jones — Age 39 – He can’t possibly play more than one year…. can he?

24. Danny Valencia — Age 26 — Pretty low ceiling on the kid.

25. Josh Bell — Age 24 — Interesting prospect that looked bad in his first year. I don’t know if Reynolds’ acquisition means that his O’s days are done.

26. Zack Cox — Age 22 — Jesus. I’m surprised he’s in Yahoo!’s draft pool. Seems weird. He has the tools to be a top-5, top-10 third basemen. You’ll have to wait on him though.

27. David Freese — Age 28 – Yup, I like Cox more than Freese. Freese is a placeholder and almost unkeepable. If you think your league will cave in a couple years, then obviously Freese is a better option than Cox.

28. Scott Rolen — Age 36 — I think he falls apart this year…

29. Brandon Inge — Age 34 – Seems to do it all, but there’s no keepability.

30. Dan Johnson — Age 31 – Boring.

31. Chris Johnson — Age 26 — Limited Ceiling, but who knows….

32. Kevin Kouzmanoff — Age 29 — Consistent, but unkeepable.

33. Juan Francisco — Age 23 – See Comment about Rolen falling apart. Francisco will eventually switch to the outfield and he’s an interesting gamble and one of the few players with upside that should see substantial playing time this year. Not quite as skilled as the other pups, but good.

34. Brent Morel — Age 24 — Morel should also see the starting line-up a good bit this year and his talents are a’ight. I believe he’s penciled in as the starting third basemen at this point…

35. Alberto Callaspo — Age 28 — Meh.

36. Mevlin Mora — Age  39 – Old. Might be useful. Should be useful.

37. Casey Blake — Age 37 — Hurt for the first month or so, I think.

38. Jorge Cantu — Age 29 — No starting gig, but should see decent time.

39. Jayson Nix — Age 28 — Starting third basemen for Cleveland.

40. Wilson Betemit — Age 29 — I. Hate. Wilson. Betemit.

41. Mat Gamel — Age 25 – There’s power potential here, but he’s really flailing in the wind.

42. Mark Teahen — Age 29 – Guh. He’s in the book Moneyball though!

43. Matt Tuiasosopo — Age 25 – See: Gamel.

44. Pedro Feliz — Age 36 — See: Age.

45. Brooks Conrad — Age 31 — See: Chipper is 39 Years Old.

46. Wes Helms — Age 35 – See: Emilio Bonafacio.

47. Daniel Descalso — Age 24 — See: Interesting third base prospect. Not great, but interesting.

Second-base is tough to predict in a dynasty league because. For the most part second base and third base are positions inhabited by limited range short stops. The only non-eligible second basemen I’ll toss in is Dustin Ackley and maybe Ivan DeJesus Jr. if Casey Blake stays hurt… If I’ve missed someone or dropped someone, it’s probably an eligibility, stupidity or Yahoo! Player Pool thing.

1. Robinson Cano — Age 28 – Best of the best in the middle of the Yankees line-up.

2. Dustin Pedroia — Age 27 — Pedroia’s receding hairline lead me to believe that he was almost thirty.

3. Ian Kinsler — Age 29 – Probably only a couple years left of SB, but the power will probably remain.

4. Chase Utley — Age 32 – You’ve got about 3 years left at an elite level, even if 2011 is starting out rough.

5. Rickie Weeks — Age 28 – Rickie Weeks finally impressed. Good option going forward.

6. Dan Uggla — Age 31 — Power, lots of Power. Looks good in Atlanta. Could easily be a fantasy option for five more years.

7. Brandon Phillips — Age 30 — Phillips is a good option here.

8. Martin Prado — Age 27 – Second base eligibility is in question, so I don’t know where to rate Prado. He’s still extremely useful.

9. Kelly Johnson — Age 29 — Finally flashed the power that we all grew to love.

10. Dustin Ackley — Age 22 – Best of the best when it comes to prospects. I don’t think his ceiling is as high as some people project.

11. Ben Zobrist — Age 29 — Eligibility is always a problem.

12. Gordon Beckham — Age 24 – Once an absolutely top-prospect, Beckham’s value is hard to project.

13. Aaron Hill — Age 29 — Should see a nice bounce back season and could easily surpass Johnson and Prado.

14. Brett Lawrie — Age 21 – It’s going to be tough for Lawrie to stick at second base, but I think his power potential is there.

15. Neil Walker — Age 24 — Great season last year. We’ll see if he can keep it up.

16. Tsuyoshi Nishioka — Age 26 – This should get interesting.

17. Howie Kendrick — Age 27 — This group of second basemen from about 11 to here are one and the same.

18. Brad Emaus — Age 25 – I’ve got a good feeling about Emaus and he’s been named the opening day starter. Nice risk-reward here.

19. Danny Espinosa — Age 24 – He might put it together, but I’m not leaning one way or the other.

20. Sean Rodriguez — Age 26 – I think he’ll have a great 2011, but there’s going to be some roster eligibility problems.

21. Mike Aviles — Age 30 – Boring.

22. Brian Roberts — Age 33 — I don’t know when he’ll fall apart, but I got a feeling it’ll be soon.

23. Reid Brignac — Age 25 — Limited upside. Limited positional eligibility at second.

24. Chone Figgins — Age 33 – Getting Old but there should be a couple useful seasons.

25. Jason Kipnis — Age 24 – Kipnis is still a couple years away but he’s got the talent to succeed at the big league level. I can see a situation where he goes 20th.

26. Juan Uribe — Age 32 — Useful but old.

27. Placido Polanco — Age 35 – Useful but old.

28. Ruben Tejada — Age 21 – The Mets were aggressive with Tejada last year. They were also aggressive with Jennry Meija. Both weren’t bright moves and Tejada is probably much further away than you’d expect.

29. Omar Infante — Age 29 — Does everything and should have a great season in 2011.

30. Ty Wigginton — Age 33 — Again, Wigginton does everything.

31. Eric Young Jr. — Age 26 — Will this be the year? He’s got tools, but second-base eligibility is in question

32. Ryan Raburn — Age 30 – Again, 2011 should be great value at second base, but eligibility is in question.

33. Orlando Hudson — Age 33 – Should provide a useful season. Always provides a useful season.

34. Ryan Theriot — Age 31 – Definitely interesting in 2011, but the long-term value isn’t there.

35. Jeff Baker — Age 29 — Just scored himself the second base job in Chicago-land and will be a great deep-league sleeper.

36. Skip Schumaker — Age 31 — I’m not exactly a fan of Skip Schumaker, but his bat plays well at second base.

37. Carlos Guillen — Age 35 — Old but productive. Out for the start of the 2011 Season.

38. Darwin Barney — Age 25 – Young and fairly talented. Might get to slip into the second basemen’s job at some point this year, but it’ll be a tough ride.

39. Todd Frazier — Age 25 – I’m not sure what to think of Frazier. He used to be a top prospect but he continues to show perfectly average skills. If you like gambling, here’s the spot to do it.

40. Ivan DeJesus Jr. — Age 23 – He busted his leg up and his status suffered. With Casey Blake’s injury, DeJesus should be getting some playing time in early 2011 and could impress. He’s got the potential to be sneaky good.

41. Freddy Sanchez — Age 33 — Old and useful.

42. Alberto Collaspo — Age 27 – Pretty Bland. Swings at everything.

43. Chris Getz — Age 27 — I’m not a Getz fan.

44. Mark Ellis — Age 34 – Ellis just continues to get it done but there’s a bunch of kids after his job.

45. Jerry Hairston Jr. — Age 34 — Hairston will probably only have this year as 2B-eligible, but he’s a great sleeper.

46. Marco Scutaro — Age 35 — Productive.

47. Bill Hall — Age 31 — In Houston, everyone’s useful, right?

48. Mike Fontenot — Age 30 — Should get the ABs

49. Everth Cabrera — Age 24 – Jason Barlett at SS and O-Dawg at 2B. He’ll get AB at somepoint.

50. Alexei Casilla — Age 26 – Ugh.

51. Clint Barmes — Age 32 — Should be a decent option in 2011 but out 4-6 Weeks.

52. Eric Patterson — Age 27 – Seems like he’s been hyped forever. Should succeed in his new home, but 2B-eligibility probably gone.

53. Scott Sizemore — Age 26 — Fairly boring.

54. Luis Castillo — Age 35 – Could provide useful numbers in Utley’s absense.

55. Angel Sanchez — Age 27 — Fills in for Barmes. Not exciting at all.

55. Eric Sogard — Age 24 — One of the A’s youngsters vying for the 2B job. Adrian Cardenas is the other. Bother aren’t exactly top-notch prospects. Good everyday regulars though, I guess.

56. Blake DeWitt — Age 25 – Lost his job and I’ve decided to rank him after Barney and Baker

57. Luis Hernandez — Age 26 – Fairly uninteresting.

58. Tony Abreu — Age 26 – Fairly uninteresting

When it comes to first basemen, I’m only using their *current* listed position. I made one exception in Chris Carter. There’s a handful of players that didn’t make the cut because they weren’t in the Yahoo! player pool or were more valuable at another position.

1. Albert Pujols — Age 31 — I don’t have him here by much, but Miggy’s DUI made me take back my initial prediction.

2. Miguel Cabrera — Age 28 — Probably the best long-term keeper out there right now.

3. Joey Votto — Age 27 — MVP. From Toronto. Win/WIN! The other guys on this list have just done it for a bit longer.

4. Adrian Gonzalez — Age 29 — Welcome to Boston. Should have at least 5 productive years.

5. Prince Fielder — Age 27 – I think Fielder has the ability to be number one on this list.

6. Billy Butler — Age 25 – Love Billy Butler. Love Love. Kansas City has all the talent in the world and I think he’ll start to rack up some counting stats.

7. Ryan Howard — Age 31 – He didn’t enter the show until later, and I figure he’ll have at least three more absolutely dominant seasons. The power will remain legit for a while.

8. Mark Teixiera — Age 31 — He should look much more like Career-Teixiera than 2010-Teixiera.

9. Justin Morneau — Age 30 — Injuries aren’t concerning me in the long term.

10. Kevin Youkilis — Age 32 -- It’s weird to think that Youkilis is the oldest of the bunch…

11. Ike Davis — Age 24 — I think Davis is better than Freeman. Yup

12. Adam Dunn — Age 31 — Dunn will hit 40 HR, I promise.

13. Kendry Morales — Age 28 — Morales has all sorts of potential, but risk/reward is a bit high for me.

14. Freddie Freeman — Age 21 – I think Freeman is Younger than Davis. I don’t think either of these two picks need explaining.

15. Adam Lind — Age 27 – He Will Bounce Back!

16. Paul Konerko — Age 35 — Well.. I think he’s got two seasons left.

17. Brandon Belt — Age 22 — I am really high on Brandon Belt, but the MiLB track record just isn’t there because he’s that AWESOME. I think of Davis, Freeman and Trumbo that Belt is the best. If I were just ranking on gut-feeling, Belt would be above Morales at 13.

18. Mark Trumbo — Age 25 – Interesting story. Crazy. Crazy. Power.

19. Eric Hosmer — Age 21 – Okay. Here’s the thing. Hosmer is the best first base prospect of the bunch, but he also has the slimmest shot of playing in 2011 (and guh, maybe even 2012). The Royals are weird when it comes to prospects. I don’t even know if they’ll bring Moose up for 2011.

20. Carlos Pena — Age 33 – Oldie, but a goodie. His BA should be better and you’re pretty much guaranteed great power for the next couple years.

21. Matt LaPorta — Age 26 – Upside. I think this is the year he puts it together.

22. Kila Ka’aihue — Age 27 — Unfortunately Kansas City never gave him a fair shake, but 2011 is the year. Don’t be surprised if he jumps up a handful of spots.

23. Gaby Sanchez — Age 27 — Spectacularly average first basemen. I don’t know how you keep him, but he’ll be productive.

24. Adam LaRoche — Age 31 – Maybe this is Mark Trumbo 5 years from now.

25. Mitch Moreland — Age 25 — Under. Rated. 2011 is a break-out.

26. Derrek Lee — Age 35 — Should have a good 2011 as well. Injury and AB are questions…

27. Justin Smoak — Age 24 — Oh how the mighty have fallen. Honestly, Seattle kills me. If the guy were still in Texas, I’d love ‘em.

28. Aubrey Huff — Age 34 – I do not like Aubrey Huff. I have absolutely no clue how he does it.

36. Yonder Alonso — Age 23 — Oh No, You Didn’t.  Originally, I had Alonso ranked 36th because he’s a bit away, but I think I’ll move him up.

29. Chris Carter — Age 25 — Just got sent to AAA and this might be the end. The power is legit, but what about the other skills?

30. James Loney — Age 27 — It took me about five years to admit to myself that James Loney would not develop power. That almost guarantees that he’ll hit 25 for no good reason this year…

31. Brett Wallace — Age 24 – Brett Wallace is James Loney, without the speed, but with the question marks. He’s 5 years younger, but I don’t know how to rank him…

32. Lance Berkman — Age 35 — One, maybe two, seasons. Should be bounce-back, but I don’t know how the guy plays the outfield for too long.

33. Garrett Jones — Age 30 – Pretty, Pretty, Pretty Useful.

34. Michael Morse — Age 29 – More of an outfield bet. There’s some serious competition up in DC for that left-field gig.

35. Luke Scott — Age 32 – Luke Scott also bothers me and if I recall correctly he has gross splits. Definitely a useful player but not a keeper.

37. Dan Johnson — Age 31 — Uneventful. 3B eligible.

38. Daric Barton — Age 25 – Value comes from PA. PA come from spot in order. Useful, but don’t overvalue.

39. Chris Davis — Age 25 — I believe he’ll find a home. Definitely a gamble worth taking.

40. Juan Miranda — Age 28 — Some power. Gotta be pretty deep to keep him though.

41. Todd Helton – I sorta wanted to leave Helton off the list.

42. Lyle Overbay — Age 34 — Not a terrible choice.

43. Brad Hawpe — Age 31 — For some reason, I thought Hawpe was older.  There’s some competition in SD.

44. Lars Anderson — Age 24 — I do not think Lars Anderson is a great prospect.

45. Anthony Rizzo — Age 21 – But he’s closer than Rizzo.

46. Jorge Cantu — Age 29 — Cantu has been around forever as well…

47. Ross Gload — Age 34 – Howard’s back-up and I believe he can still play the field pretty well.

48. Russell Branyan — Age 35 – Dingers.

49. Steven Pearce — Age 27 — Yup.

50. Mike Carp — Age 24 — Here’s an interesting pick. Carp has some power. Seattle is notoriously awful at everything. Seems to be very close to MLB ready.

Oh Boy, this ought to be fun. Let’s work with a universe of keeping –uhh 200-250 different players — How’s that sound?

If they are not in the Yahoo! pool, I won’t even consider them. With catcher, it makes a lot more sense to redraft unless you’re in a very, very deep league. After you get to the point where their ceiling! falls beneath what you’d keep, you might as well just draft from your 2011 list.

CATCHER DYNASTY RANKINGS

1. Joe Mauer — 28 Years Old — Mauer’s the best of the best and should have about five years left of catcher eligibility.

2. Buster Posey — 24 Years Old — Posey impressed in his first season and I wouldn’t have a huge problem placing him ahead of Mauer if you think your league will be around 10 years from now.

3. Brian McCann — 27 Years Old – Year in and year out, Brian McCann just gets it done. He’s still fairly young even in catcher years and the Braves have a talented and young organization.

4. Geovanny Soto – 28 Years Old – Even during his awful years, he keeps his walk rate up.

5. Carlos Santana — 25 Years Old – His 2010 was cut short by an awful leg injury, but he’s still one of the best young catchers in the game.

6. Victor Martinez — 32 Years Old — I think he’s probably got about 3 years worth of 15-game catcher eligibility left and maybe four or five useful years left. At this point, it makes a lot more sense to take a couple guaranteed great years than it does to speculate.

7. Matt Wieters — 25 Years Old – I think Wieters will succeed in this year’s version of the O’s offense. We’re talking about a kid that displayed hitting jesus skills in the minors and might just be off to a slow start.

8. Jesus Montero — 21 Years Old – Do I think that Montero will have a better career than Wieters? Yup. Do I think that he’ll do it at catcher? Nope. Montero is a special talent and will still be keepable at DH or 1B, but I’m not sure how long he can maintain catcher eligibility.

9. Miguel Montero — 27 Years Old – Is this the year that Montero finally stays healthy and plays every day? We’re dealing with a catcher that’s posted ISOs of .179, .184, and .172 the last three seasons. This is the right time to gamble.

10. J.P. Arencibia – 25 Years Old – Arencibia absolutely destroyed AAA pitching in 2009 and 2010 in homer friendly Vegas. Power at catcher is always nice and his receiving skills aren’t terrible.

11. Mike Napoli – 29 Years Old – Napoli has raw power and isn’t quite as terrible behind the plate as you’d expect. He’s only got to get a  handful of games behind the plate each year for the next three or four years to deserve this rating.

12. Chris Iannetta — 28 Years Old — I love Chris Iannetta but he’s never been given a chance. It gets a bit hairy right around here because you have to decide whether or not you want to compete this year or in years to come. With Iannetta, you do some bet hedging.

13. Russell Martin — 28 Years Old — Yes, I just wrote 28 years old. He’s posted an ISO under .100 for a couple years in a row and his speed’s all but gone, but he should have a nice bounceback season at Yankee stadium this year. He’s working on a 1-Year/$4M contract so I think he’s a great risk here.

14. Kurt Suzuki — 27 Years Old – Suzuki isn’t exactly a keeper, but you know basically what you’re going to get from him.

15. Alex Avila – 24 Years Old – He should see plenty of time behind the plate and I like the kid more than most.

16. Wilson Ramos — 23 Years Old – I think you could roll the dice here without too much of a problem. Reports point to Ramos taking over soon rather than later.

17. Jorge Posada — 39 Years Old – One, maybe two, years left in his bat. You could move Posada up to 12th with no problem depending on whether or not your league starts putting off catchers. If you’ve already established the players you want to keep going forward, Posada’s a steal.

18. Jason Castro — 24 Years Old – Definitely one of the most interesting prospects out there. There was a collective sigh when he hurt himself. A lot of Castro’s on-field value comes from his defense but he’s still got a sweet and compact stroke to hit .300 at the big-league level.

19. John Jaso — 27 Years Old – I like Jaso and he’s probably better than 19th, but 15 through 19 is about the same value in my opinion.

20. Devin Mesoraco – 22 Years Old — This is the first *real* prospect for me. Wil Myers and Bryce Harper are obviously better, but they’ve already been moved out of the catcher spot. There’s not that much competition in Cinci and Mesoraco has a great shot at being a 6-10th ranked catcher for plenty of years. He crushed the ball last year and shot up Baseball America’s list…

21. Hank Conger – 23 Years Old — Conger has always been a bit more hype than results, but the kid can definitely play and is close enough to full-time.

22. Wilin Rosario — 22 Years Old — Rosario isn’t *that* far out and absolutely killed double-A pitching. If you’re drafting him here, you’re sitting on him for at least a year and a bit.

23. John Buck — 30 Years Old — Buck has all sorts of power but he no longer calls Rogers Centre home.

24. Jonathan Lucroy – 25 Years Old – Definitely Intriguing in Milwaukee.

25. Yadier Molina – 28 Year Old – He seems to get it done in a very good line-up.

26. Chris Snyder — 30 Years Old – I think Snyder has a shot at vaulting into the top 12 or so catchers and potentially being kept.

27. Josh Thole – 24 Years Old – I’m not sold on Thole, but he’s got plenty of time to improve. At this point, you’re probably going to start drafting for the current year or going out of your way and hoping you get lucky.

28. Derek Norris — 22 Years Old – Kid is an absolute machine with all the patience in the world. Don’t be fooled by his batting averages. He hasn’t played above High-A, but his approach and refined skills should allow him to advance fairly quickly. He’s still a ways out though and maybe, just maybe, an impressive 2012 spring training might land him a roster spot.

29. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – 26 Years Old – He used to be a top prospect, and he’s in Boston. Maybe he finally puts it together.

30. Tyler Flowers – 25 Years Old – It’s hard to think that Flowers may have blown his chance, but you never know…

31. Ryan Doumit — 30 Years Old – Oh, the good old days.

32. Carlos Ruiz — 32 Years Old — He’ll provide you a great stop gap.

33. Yorvit Torrealba — 32 Years Old – I think he’ll provide some upside. He’s probably one of my favorite 2011 sleepers.

34. A.J. Pierzynski — 34 Years Old – Everyone Hates AJ.

35. Miguel Olivo — 30 Years Old – Not a terrible option. Remember the days when he was a sleeper prospect and then a top prospect?

36. Kelly Shoppach — 31 Years Old — Will be platooned with Jaso, but should offer some pop and his limited ABs won’t kill your batting average.

37. Rod Barajas — 35 Years Old – Interesting case in LA, Navarro will probably appear soon.

38. Jake Fox — 28 Years Old – He does everything, but lord knows how long he’ll retain C eligibility. He’s a sleeper as a one-year wonder.

39. Nick Hundley — 27 Years Old — We’re getting into the bottom of the barrell.

40. Ramon Hernandez — 35 Years Old – I’m feeling an injury plagued year.

41. Ivan Rodriguez — 39 Years Old – Probably on his way out of Washington, but if he can land himself on a contender, this could get interesting.

42. Ryan Hanigan — 30 Years Old – Should split time with the aforementioned Reds.

43. Brayan Pena — 29 Years Old – Hits everything, but doesn’t hit it well.

44. Jason Kendall — 37 Years Old – Umm.

45. Jesus Flores — 26 Years Old – Coming off injury, Flores is very, very intriguing but Wilson Ramos might provide some problems.

46. John Baker — 30 Year Old – Interesting pick here.

47. Ronny Paulino — 30 Years Old

48. Jeff Mathis — 28 Years Old

49. Adam Moore — 27 Years Old – Interesting pick here. I’ve almost written him off, but I believe he might be a keeper option.

50. Gerald Laird — 31 Years Old

51. Dioner Navarro — 27 Years Old

52. Bryan Anderson — 24 Years Old — Maybe an interesting keeper option. He finally flashed some power last year and while he probably won’t see time this year, next year’s a possibility.

Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, Adam Jones, Travis Snider, Austin Jackson, Dexter Fowler, Jose Tabata and Logan Morrison walk into bar. Who do you keep?

Age: Snider: 23, Morrison: 23, Jackson: 24, Colby Rasmus: 24, Tabata: 22?, Adam Jones: 25, Fowler: 25, Drew Stubbs: 26

This depends on how many years you can keep a player. To keep things simple, let’s say eternity. Considering that not a single player on the list has reached their peak, we’ve got a solid five years minimum guaranteed going forward. When it comes to Tabata, I’m definitely a birther and refuse to believe he’s not the oldest player on this list.

8. Adam Jones

He’s a freakish athlete and he just posted back-to-back 19HR seasons. His stolen bases really should be approaching 20+ but for some reason they haven’t. Either way, Jones is all risk and all reward. His 40% O-Swing is painful. His 0.19 BB/K is excruciating. He’s also got a 13.2 Swinging Strike rate. All sorts of projectibility, but man… those discipline stats are awful.

7. Dexter Fowler

Fowler doesn’t really worry me. He seems like the kind of lead-off hitter you’d slot into your line-up for 10-years and call it a day. I’m not sure why he hasn’t stolen more bases, but everything about his contact and discipline profile seems to fit the lead-off hitter mold. The upside isn’t there, but neither is the downside really.

6. Logan Morrison

Of the bunch, Logan Morrison is probably has the best strike-zone judgment but plate discipline isn’t a counting statistic in fantasy baseball. In A-ball, Morrison flashed power by hitting 24 HR, but he’s yet to top a .500-SLG. Considering that Morrison only saw 43% of balls inside of the zone, his 20% O-Swing and 6.5 Swinging Strike are astounding. Plenty of players develop power but Morrison’s ceiling isn’t quite as high as the other gentlemen. He won’t endure the streaks that the other players have, but he doesn’t have the SB or HR that owners drool over.

5. Austin Jackson

Jackson strikes out a lot and his .396 BABIP was inflated, but not crazy given his MiLB track record. In 2011, a batting average around .275-.280 seems fair and it’ll come with about 30 SB. I’m worried about his counting stats, particularly runs, if the Tigers decide against hitting him atop the order.

4. Jose Tabata

Tabata posted solid numbers in 2010 and there’s plenty of potential for growth. If we’re dealing with a 22-year old, the power potential is definitely there. His .339 BABIP in 2010 is right in line with his minor league numbers, so there’s no reason to fret. Jose Tabata saw a lot of fastballs in 2010 and they were right down broadway. There are some high hopes for 2011 and I think they should be tempered because Jose will be seeing some more junk after killing the fastball in 2010. Being a Pirate knocks him a bit, but with Cutch and Alvarez, this team should improve offensively over the next five years.

3. Drew Stubbs

I’m not sure why I’m listing Stubbs this low, but he’s the oldest of the bunch and I just get an icky feeling. I think Stubbs is the most likely to come crashing back down to earth and I almost have no evidence to support it. In 779 major league plate appearances, Stubbs has hit 30 HR and stolen 40 bases. The speed is definitely legit, but where was that power in AAA, AA, High-A, A and Rookie Ball? The power was there at Texas which made Stubbs a top-10 pick and that’s the only reason I have any faith in the kid’s power. I have Stubbs on my keeper team — I got lucky as shit — and I don’t have the gonads to not keep the kid. I worry about his ability to continue producing with a 0.33 BB/K and absolutely terrible contact rates and 12% Swinging Strike Rate.

2. Travis Snider

I’m a bit of a homer, but Snider is the lone prospect on this list with jaw-dropping power. League wide, home runs continue to trend downward while stolen bases increase. Snider’s yet to put together a full season of injury free baseball, but with the departure of Cito Gaston, Travis Snider should flourish. Snider’s plate discipline really needs to improve given that he’s only seeing 44% of pitches inside of the zone. Snider will strike out 25% of the time, but somewhere in his bat is 40-HR power. Upside wise, Snider’s only rivaled by Rasmus and they both get a bump.

1. Colby Rasmus

Free Colby Rasmus! Sure, he strikes out, but he also walks a tonne. More importantly, he plays on a perennial contender with a guy named Albert Pujols (who will!!! be in St. Louis for the rest of his career). Rasmus is just 24 and there’s still plenty of room for growth. I never saw Rasmus as the 30/30 guy that dreams of made of, and quite frankly I wouldn’t be surprised to see him switch to a corner spot with the corresponding production before he turns 27.

I enjoy random strategies, especially the punting of batting average. A bad batting average will absolutely make or break how a player’s perceived. Our underlying biases really draw us away from those .220 hitters and we tend to overrate the importance of batting average. People view rate states in a completely different manner than they view counting states. No one looks at low HR totals as a stat that will *hurt* you, but a low batting average is always viewed as a statistic that will inflict sadistic pain on your fantasy roster. If we transformed the HR category into a rate stat, say HR / AB, Jacoby Ellsbury would be the new Adam Dunn.

Thus, here’s a list of gentlemen that’ll bring the awful by achieving 60% or less of the possible 100% points available for BA. As is generally the case, Ichiro comes in tops in RotoChamp‘s projections because of his hatred of the walk and free-swinging mentality. When you punt batting average, you’re essentially eliminating 1/5th of your offensive production and thus, you’ve got to make that up in the other categories. These strategies often work much better in head-to-head leagues where you only have to beat your opponent and it doesn’t matter by how much.

C: Carlos Santana, Geovany Soto, Miguel Montero, Mike Napoli, Jorge Posada, Chris Ianetta, J.P. Arencibia, John Buck, Russell Martin, , Miguel Olivo, Rod Barajas, Alex Avila, Chris Snider, and a host of other catchers are below average in terms of batting average.

Catcher’s always interesting because people really tend to overvalue the batting average portion of the equation but their limited ABs really end up placing them below average.

Your Best Bets: Mike Napoli, Chris Iannetta, Jorge Posada, John Buck and J.P. Arencibia.

1B: Mark Teixera, Price Fielder, Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Adam LaRoche, Carlos Pena, Lance Berkman, Garrett Jones, Kila Ka’aihue, Brett Wallace, Matt LaPorta, Chris Davis, Russell Branyan

First Base always comes with a great average and the cut-off seems to be .270 in terms of perception. Anything in the .260s and lower really scares people off, but they feel like they can manage it with .270.

Your Best Bets: Ryan Howard, Adam Dunn, Carlos Pena and Prince Fielder all provide huge amounts of power and counting stats. If you’re going to punt batting average, you have to grab a couple power-hitting first basemen and slot them in wherever you can.

2B: Brandon Phillips, Rickie Weeks, Dan Uggla, Aaron Hill, Kelly Johnson, Gordon Beckham, Sean Rodriguez, Ty Wigginton, Juan Uribe, Danny Espinosa, Reid Brignac, and Bill Hall.

Ideally, you want to grab Phillips, Weeks or Uggla. If you’re not getting Uggla, you should nab some kind of power-speed combination with your second base pick.

Your Best Bets: Dan Uggla, Aaron Hill, Rickie Weeks, Danny Espinosa, Reid Brignac, Sean Rodriguez, Brandon Phillips.

SS: Jimmy Rollins, Ian Desmond, Alcides Escobar, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, J.J. Hardy,

Shortstop is a barren wasteland in 2011.

Your Best Bet: Grab some runs. Unless you can get Jimmy Rollins here, there’s not too many gentlemen that put up awful batting averages. I think someone like Alcides Escobar offers a lot of upside if you want to wait..

3B: Alex Rodriguez, Jose Bautista, Aramis Ramirez, Pedro Alvarez, Ian Stewart, Mark Reynolds, Edwin Encarnacion, Kevin Kouzmanoff, Chipper Jones, Casey Blake, Brent Morel

Third base is absolutely loaded with options this year.

Best Buy: Depends where you wanna pick, really. I think Bautista will play as an OF, but A-Rod, Ramirez, Alvarez, Stewart and Reynolds are all must targets.

OF: Matt Kemp, Jose Bautista, Alex Rios, B.J. Upton, Mike Stanton, Chris Young, Michael Bourn, Corey Hart, Curtis Granderson, Colby Rasmus, Drew Stubbs, Brett Gardner, Bobby Abreu, Vernon Wells, Grady Sizemore,  Jason Bay, Nick Swisher, Snider, Torres, Rayburn, Austin Jackson, Matt Joyce and a plethora of other players

Outfield is deep and it’s generally where you have to get your steals from. There’s all sorts of value in a player like B.J. Upton and Drew Stubbs, and even Brett Gardner and Curtis Granderson.

Best Option: Best available player with a BA lower than .275 — preferably speed-oriented.

Here’s a full list of BA that *hurt* you:

I love projection models. They do a great job taking available data and spitting out a reasonable expectation of output for the upcoming season. If you’re in a competitive league, I’m sure you’ve seen owners sifting through excel tabs named MARCEL, ESPN, YAHOO, ROTOCHAMP, BILL JAMES, ZIPS, and AVERAGE.

Projection models don’t tell the whole story though and that’s why you need to use your brain-mind in addition to the projection models. In very competitive leagues, this is one of the few spots that you can get an advantage on your competition. While your entire league’s evaluating players based on the models, you’ll be relying on your head and gut to interpret rather than rely on the data.

Here’s what I mean: A projection model will look at a player like Josh Johnson and decide that he’s due to pitch 179 innings in 2011. That isn’t to say that Josh Johnson has the greatest probability of pitching 179 innings but rather it’s a combination of how many innings Johnson has pitched in previous years combined with (more than likely) a weighted average of Johnson’s predicted Innings Pitched.

This was just quickly tossed together to illustrate a point. You’ll notice it’s Josh Johnson versus Mr. Blue in terms of probability of achieving X number of innings pitched. Johnson (green line) has a much higher chance of accumulating very few innings pitched than Mr. Blue as illustrated by the orange in the graph. Because of this higher probability of absolute failure, Johnson’s predicted innings pitched are less than Mr. Blue and thus, his fantasy points will depend on that number. Yet, as you can see, Johnson probably won’t pitch that amount of innings. There’s a much greater chance of Johnson pitching considerably more innings and he probably has around the same shot of pitching 200, 210, 230, 2-whatever as Mr. Blue.

Well, when it comes to fantasy baseball, the ORANGE area really doesn’t matter all that much. If Johnson’s on the DL all year, we can find a replacement. If Johnson does terribly, we can find a replacement. Our replacement will not be as good as Johnson, but he’ll suffice.

Our projection of Josh Johnson already takes into account that Josh Johnson is an injury risk. There is no need to further downgrade him. Quite frankly, I’m all for projecting Josh Johnson as a full-time starter while keeping track of risk. So rather than accounting for risk on every player individually and adjusting their points individually, you account for risk on a team basis.

This is only part of how projection models calculate IP, though. They also look at how many innings our player (Johnson) has pitched in the past and weight the most recent years the heaviest. In most cases they do not discriminate though. If our player missed a week because of a nasty case of athlete’s foot, the models count it the same as a week with shoulder soreness.

That’s why you have to root through a player’s injury history to see exactly what kind of innings you can expect from your player. Our player, Johnson, has had shoulder issues so the point is moot in this case.

I just want to make sure that everyone interprets their projection models correctly because it’s a serious problem when you look at a projection model and then start highlighting players that are injury risks. Johnson may well get injured and is definitely a risky pick, but his 179 IP isn’t a ceiling, it’s an average.