Positional Rankings

2010 Adjusted ESPN Shortstop Rankings

Shortstop isn’t exactly shallow this year, but one thing stands out more than anything else:  At-Bats.  It’s all about ABs.

In fantasy baseball, plate appearances and walks aren’t counted as primary statistics.  The importance of a players batting average has everything to do with his at-bats.  After that, we’re dealing with some speedsters that deal with hammy and quad injuries every second week.

At shortstop, more than any other position, there’s uncertainty around a lot of players about their health or role on the club.

Based on stats alone, we’re dealing with 12 mandatory shortstops as well as Aybar slipping into a UTIL position on someone’s squad.  With that in mind, here’s the distribution charts:

As you can see with the histogram, there’s some depth at the back end of this. The 13 players we use don’t begin to enter the back-end of the normal distribution curve.

Ryan Theriot, J.J. Hardy, Miguel Tejada Jhonny Peralta, Marco Scutaro and Evereth Cabrera are projected to finish within about 10-15pts away from Aybar.

Quite simply, instead of wasting a draft-pick on the lower tier of shortstops, you might as well wait until the later rounds and grab someone that’s just on the cusp.  Maximizing value per pick is important and unless you’re in love with a name — I’d say get your SS early or get him late.

PLAYER_NAME	POSITION	R	HR	RBI	SB	ESPN_AVERAGE	AB	A_AB	Hits	Tts
Hanley Ramirez	SS	113	29	91	34	0.324	603	562	195	378.81
Jimmy Rollins	SS	103	19	79	32	0.273	630	599.5	172	308.79
Troy Tulowitzki	SS	100	28	95	14	0.293	522	505	153	305.8
Derek Jeter	SS	103	16	68	22	0.315	583	570	184	295.09
Jose Reyes	SS	93	11	54	47	0.283	541	430.5	153	286.13
Stephen Drew	SS	87	19	75	8	0.289	550	527.5	159	250.61
Asdrubal Cabrera	SS	83	11	76	18	0.300	475	470.5	142	243.84
Elvis Andrus	SS	79	6	60	40	0.280	436	425.5	122	242.42
Alexei Ramirez	SS	79	17	72	13	0.282	527	515	149	239.67
Yunel Escobar	SS	89	15	71	6	0.303	490	491.5	148	236.39
Jason Bartlett	SS	72	11	59	24	0.277	493	485.5	137	223.75
Alcides Escobar	SS	83	5	53	26	0.291	453	347	132	220.45
Rafael Furcal	SS	92	11	48	11	0.281	565	532	159	219.39
Erick Aybar	SS	72	6	66	22	0.303	396	431.5	120	213.93

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and here are the Z-Scores, comparing them ONLY to their peers at second base:

PLAYER_NAME	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	TOTAL	AVG	CAT	STD
Hanley Ramirez	1.94	1.93	1.59	0.94	2.13	8.53	89.143	R	12.303
Jimmy Rollins	1.13	0.59	0.72	0.77	-1.27	1.95	14.571	HR	7.470
Troy Tulowitzki	0.88	1.8	1.88	-0.7	0.07	3.93	69.071	RBI	13.787
Derek Jeter	1.13	0.19	-0.08	-0.04	1.53	2.73	22.643	SBI	12.220
Jose Reyes	0.31	-0.48	-1.09	2	-0.6	0.15	0.292	AVG	0.015
Stephen Drew	-0.17	0.59	0.43	-1.19	-0.2	-0.54
Asdrubal Cabrera	-0.5	-0.48	0.5	-0.37	0.53	-0.31
Elvis Andrus	-0.82	-1.15	-0.66	1.43	-0.8	-2
Alexei Ramirez	-0.82	0.33	0.21	-0.78	-0.67	-1.73
Yunel Escobar	-0.01	0.06	0.14	-1.35	0.73	-0.43
Jason Bartlett	-1.39	-0.48	-0.73	0.12	-1	-3.48
Alcides Escobar	-0.5	-1.28	-1.17	0.28	-0.07	-2.73
Rafael Furcal	0.23	-0.48	-1.53	-0.94	-0.73	-3.45
Erick Aybar	-1.39	-1.15	-0.22	-0.04	0.73	-2.07

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The Differences:

Based on ESPN’s predictions, Jimmy Rollins should be a lot higher.  I’m not sure that I agree with this, but the man contributes across the board.  Rollins, Jeter and Tulo are essentially the same person and unless you’ve got a gut feeling I’d be grabbing the cheapest of the bunch.

Elvis Andrus shouldn’t be that high based on his numbers alone.  ESPN went out on a bit of a limb predicting a return to form for Stephen Drew, but if you’re going to do that than put him where he belongs, ahead of Andrus.

Other than that, they do a fairly solid job putting their rankings together.  There’s a tonne of mediocrity after the first few tiers and there should be some terrific value if you need a shortstop late.

2010 Adjusted ESPN Second Base Rankings

Second base has long been a black-hole for fantasy owners, but the position’s grown deeper in recent years.  Unfortunately, I have very little faith in the hands-down top second baseman, Chase Utley.  One number sticks out in my mind more than anything else about Utley:  1978, Utley’s birth year.

Utley will be 31 years old for the entire 2010 season, but the steroid-era has fooled us into believing that age doesn’t matter until you’re at least in your mid-30s.

You’ll notice in the BOXPLOT to the left, a good chunk of players are bunched above the median which means pretty much after Utley and Kinsler, there’s a load of talented guys that’ll produce around the same level.

With the larger spread in the 2nd-quartile, we’re dealing with a rather large drop-off as you get to the Cabreras, Polancos and Stewarts of the world.

Tiering this up with a histogram is pretty simple. As you can see, the histogram once again shows us that it’s Utley, then Kinsler, and then the rest.  There are seven projected players between 260 and 300, so you should be able to snag a decent second basemen even if you miss out on the top-tier.

AVERAGE	CAT	STDEV
91.000	R	11.5
20.800	HR	6.53
79.467	RBI	12.61
13.800	SB	9.03
0.286	AVG	0.02

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There’s the averages for the second-basemen and here are Z-Scores:

PLAYER_NAME	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Total
Chase Utley	2	1.41	3.93	0.47	0.2	8
Ian Kinsler	0.78	0.8	2.98	1.68	-1.25	4.99
Brandon Phillips	-0.78	0.03	3.29	1.35	-0.55	3.34
Dustin Pedroia	1.65	-0.74	1.87	0.35	0.95	4.09
Robinson Cano	-0.09	0.49	2.9	-1.09	1.75	3.96
Brian Roberts	0.87	-1.04	1.55	1.57	0.15	3.1
Ben Zobrist	0.17	0.34	3.14	0.24	0.05	3.94
Aaron Hill	-0.17	0.64	3.29	-0.97	-0.15	2.64
Dan Uggla	0.17	1.41	3.29	-1.2	-1.55	2.13
Jose Lopez	-1.3	0.49	3.37	-1.09	-0.35	1.12
Asdrubal Cabrera	-0.7	-1.5	2.26	0.47	0.7	1.23
Ian Stewart	-0.61	0.64	2.58	-0.75	-1.3	0.56
Placido Polanco	0	-1.5	1.55	-0.97	1	0.07
Howie Kendrick	-1.57	-1.35	2.02	0.02	1.35	0.48
Rickie Weeks	-0.43	-0.12	0.04	-0.09	-0.95	-1.55

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PLAYER_NAME	POSITION	R	HR	RBI	SB	ESPNAVG	AB	A_AB	Hits	Tts
Chase Utley	2B	114	30	97	18	0.290	564	544.5	164	334.01
Ian Kinsler	2B	100	26	85	29	0.261	531	519.5	139	304.84
Brandon Phillips	2B	82	21	89	26	0.275	574	553	158	287.97
Dustin Pedroia	2B	110	16	71	17	0.305	569	564	174	286.99
Robinson Cano	2B	90	24	84	4	0.321	570	564.5	183	283.94
Brian Roberts	2B	101	14	67	28	0.289	579	565	167	283.64
Ben Zobrist	2B	93	23	87	16	0.287	436	442	125	273.28
Aaron Hill	2B	89	25	89	5	0.283	554	547	157	268.19
Dan Uggla	2B	93	30	89	3	0.255	555	533	142	264.37
Jose Lopez	2B	76	24	90	4	0.279	593	573	165	256.14
Asdrubal Cabrera	2B	83	11	76	18	0.300	475	470.5	142	243.84
Ian Stewart	2B	84	25	80	7	0.260	447	430.5	116	238.84
Placido Polanco	2B	91	11	67	5	0.306	552	550.5	169	234.14
Howie Kendrick	2B	73	12	73	14	0.313	448	427	140	230.55
Rickie Weeks	2B	86	20	48	13	0.267	408	347.5	109	215.11

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The Differences:

Robbie Cano and Brandon Phillips are essentially switched around in this model.  Once again, I’m completely puzzled how a .320 projected average tops a .275 average with 21 extra stolen bases.  The runs, home runs and rbi are almost identical yet Brandon Phillips ranks three spots behind Cano.

If you draft Cano as a MI, you’ve really got to stretch to find stolen bases elsewhere.  Looking at the top few tiers of second basemen, you’re almost guaranteed 20SB.

2010 Adjusted ESPN First Base Rankings

First base always seems to be deep and this year is no different. There’s a handful of elite first-basemen with very few questions and the position’s about 14 players deep before questions start popping up.

The only problems you’ll run into with first basemen is getting enough of them before they start falling off the board into UTIL spots across your league.

The Box-Plot to the left contains a total of 27 first basemen, all of whom exceed the minimum required for a beneficial UTIL-spot.

You’re almost guaranteed to get 30HR out of your first basemen and should be planning a contingency plan if you’re drafting a light-hitting first-basemen like James Loney.

As ESPN refuses to allow us access to their H/AB and rather just throws us a bone with AVG, we have to use CHONE’s AB guestimates.

Presented below are the standardized total points (Tts) and as you can see, the difference between Pujols’ and Howard’s batting average is large, but almost eliminated by Howard’s impressive HR and RBI totals.

PLAYER_NAME	R	HR	RBI	SB	ESPN_AVG	Tts
Albert Pujols	114	43	122	11	0.34	393.86
Ryan Howard	104	47	145	5	0.27	365.91
Prince Fielder	100	45	127	2	0.29	351.05
Mark Teixeira	104	38	125	2	0.3	341.34
Miguel Cabrera	106	32	102	3	0.31	324.83
Adrian Gonzalez	96	41	106	0	0.28	315.53
Mark Reynolds	96	38	102	18	0.25	312.04
Kevin Youkilis	97	28	102	5	0.31	299.31
Justin Morneau	88	33	111	0	0.28	288.99
Joey Votto	85	31	92	7	0.3	286.08
Derrek Lee	96	27	102	2	0.3	283.86
Billy Butler	90	29	99	1	0.3	283.28
Kendry Morales	88	30	101	3	0.3	282.07
Carlos Pena	90	39	103	1	0.24	275.13
Adam Dunn	83	38	100	2	0.24	271.02
Chris Davis	77	35	97	2	0.27	266.73
Lance Berkman	88	26	91	7	0.28	265.9
Pablo Sandoval	85	24	88	3	0.32	265.2
Michael Cuddyer	84	24	86	6	0.27	251.75
Adam LaRoche	72	28	88	1	0.27	245.78
Victor Martinez	86	18	93	0	0.29	244.83
Jorge Cantu	72	21	93	4	0.28	239.4
James Loney	69	17	85	5	0.3	237.16
Carlos Delgado	76	25	94	2	0.26	233.12
Paul Konerko	71	28	81	1	0.26	232.17
Nick Swisher	87	27	78	1	0.24	231.11
Garrett Jones	71	21	78	7	0.26	224.2
Todd Helton	75	13	75	0	0.31	216.87

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As you can see in the Histogram to the right, there’s one or two players in each tier after 300pts.  At 300pts, it becomes a complete and total crap-shoot.  If you care to compete, you absolutely need to get a first baseman no later than this tier.

Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto, Derrek Lee, Billy Butler, Kendry Morales, Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn are all very capable starters at first base.

The Differences:

In the ESPN Rankings, Ryan Howard is the fifth overall first basemen despite crazy projections.  It’s become fairly clear that ESPN over-values batting average and what a .270 Batting Average means in the overall scheme of things.

Assuming we have 9 positions with 600 AB each, the difference between Howard’s .270 average and Mark Teixeira’s .300 Average is about 20 Hits over the course of 600 AB.  With Ryan Howard as your first baseman on a team that hits .300 — You end up with a .2965 or almost a .297 Average.  With Teixiera on a .300 Hitting team, you end up with .300 obviously.  Whether or not you think 3pts in BA is equal to 9HR and 20 RBI is up to you…

Pablo Sandoval also takes a huge hit for the opposite reason.  In order to take advantage of Sandoval’s .323 Projected Average, you’ll have to live with the San Francisco Giants inept offense.  Sandoval’s ability to play third definitely helps his overall value, but in the first base rankings, he’s just too high.  I find it hard to believe that he hit line-drives less than 20% of the time, considering that he wasn’t smash-killing homers.

Teams made it abundantly clear that they have absolutely no problem pitching Sandoval outside the zone by throwing 60 percent of pitches off the plate.  Teams will continue to pitch Sandoval way out there until Sandoval actually stops swinging at ‘em:  Sandoval’s 41.5% swing rate on pitches outside of the zone is 16% higher than average and trails only Bengie Molina in the overall standings.   It’ll come down to whether or not you think Sandoval has the type of plate coverage to back it up.  I’m not sure if I throw Sandoval into the Guerrero/Suzuki realm of plate coverage at this point…

He did show the ability to take a walk last year, which is a good sign when you’re 2008 BB% was not even 3%.  In a nutshell, Sandoval absolutely kills the fastball-changeup combination.  Last year, he improved dramatically against the old uncle charlie, but that was more than likely statistical error in 2008– the kid can hit, but just how far he’ll chase pitches off the plate remains to be seen.  At this point, there’s just no reason to throw him anything even remotely close to the strike-zone.

Here are the averages and standard deviations from Pujols to Helton:

AVERAGE	CAT	STD_DEV
87.5	R	11.99
30.21	HR	8.66
98.79	RBI	16.05
3.61	SB	3.9
0.28	AVG	0.02

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With the Z-Scores, or standard deviations away from the mean, for just first basemen.   This is a great reference point for how much a first basemen will hurt vs. help you in any given category –  We’re assuming everyone get’s the same number of AB in this chart, which is different from the overall rankings which uses projections for AB.

PLAYER_NAME	Z-Score-R	Z-Score-HR	Z-Score-RBI	Z-Score-SB	Z-Score-AVG	Total
Albert Pujols	2.23	1.48	1.45	1.89	2.85	9.89
Ryan Howard	1.39	1.94	2.88	0.36	-0.6	5.96
Prince Fielder	1.05	1.71	1.76	-0.41	0.6	4.7
Mark Teixeira	1.39	0.9	1.63	-0.41	0.95	4.46
Miguel Cabrera	1.55	0.21	0.2	-0.16	1.6	3.4
Adrian Gonzalez	0.71	1.25	0.45	-0.93	0.2	1.68
Mark Reynolds	0.71	0.9	0.2	3.69	-1.6	3.9
Kevin Youkilis	0.8	-0.26	0.2	0.36	1.3	2.4
Justin Morneau	0.04	0.32	0.76	-0.93	-0.1	0.1
Joey Votto	-0.21	0.09	-0.42	0.87	1.15	1.48
Derrek Lee	0.71	-0.37	0.2	-0.41	0.75	0.88
Billy Butler	0.21	-0.14	0.01	-0.67	0.95	0.36
Kendry Morales	0.04	-0.02	0.14	-0.16	1.05	1.05
Carlos Pena	0.21	1.02	0.26	-0.67	-1.9	-1.08
Adam Dunn	-0.38	0.9	0.08	-0.41	-1.85	-1.67
Chris Davis	-0.88	0.55	-0.11	-0.41	-0.75	-1.6
Lance Berkman	0.04	-0.49	-0.49	0.87	-0.1	-0.16
Pablo Sandoval	-0.21	-0.72	-0.67	-0.16	2.15	0.39
Michael Cuddyer	-0.29	-0.72	-0.8	0.61	-0.45	-1.65
Adam LaRoche	-1.3	-0.26	-0.67	-0.67	-0.3	-3.2
Victor Martinez	-0.13	-1.41	-0.36	-0.93	0.5	-2.32
Jorge Cantu	-1.3	-1.06	-0.36	0.1	0	-2.63
James Loney	-1.55	-1.53	-0.86	0.36	1.1	-2.48
Carlos Delgado	-0.97	-0.6	-0.3	-0.41	-0.95	-3.23
Paul Konerko	-1.39	-0.26	-1.11	-0.67	-0.9	-4.32
Nick Swisher	-0.04	-0.37	-1.3	-0.67	-1.9	-4.28
Garrett Jones	-1.39	-1.06	-1.3	0.87	-0.8	-3.68
Todd Helton	-1.05	-1.99	-1.48	-0.93	1.45	-4

Holding Down The Fort, A Holds Report.

Some fantasy baseball providers are idiots; not just idiots, but enablers to even larger idiots.  Somehow Holds have made their way into fantasy baseball, and for some screwed up reason commissioners decide to click the Holds check box without even understanding what exactly a hold is.

What exactly is a hold in baseball?

To earn a hold, a pitcher must:

1. enters the game in a save situation; that is, one of the following three conditions applies:

• his team has a lead of no more than three runs, and there are at least three outs remaining
• the potential tying run is either on base, at bat, or on deck
• there are at least three innings remaining in the game

2. records at least one out;
3. leaves the game without his team having relinquished the lead at any point.

Wikipedia Link

If Mr. Cracker Jack can enter a 2-1 game, strike out the first batter, walk the bases full, get pulled and still earn a save, so long as he didn’t allow a run.  Great Stat.

With that said, who earns these bastardly stats?

Late Inning Relievers who:

1. …pitch the 7th or 8th Inning.
2. …pitch on a good club.
3. …are left handed.

When you draft a player for holds, you generally want someone that won’t kill your ratios. However, quite a few of these HOLD specialists really aren’t that great of pitchers.

Here are the Holds Leaders for 2008 and 2007

2008

Player	IP	W	SV	K	HLD	ERA	WHIP	K:BB
Scot Shields (LAA – RP)	63.1	6	4	64	31	2.7	1.34	2.21
Kyle McClellan (StL – RP)	75.2	2	1	59	30	4.04	1.39	2.27
Carlos Mármol (ChC – RP)	87.1	2	7	114	30	2.68	0.93	2.78
Dan Wheeler (TB – RP)	66.1	5	13	53	26	3.12	0.99	2.41
Dámaso Marte (NYY – RP)	65	5	5	71	25	4.02	1.2	2.73
Rafael Pérez (Cle – RP)	76.1	4	2	86	25	3.54	1.18	3.74
Eddie Guardado (Tex – RP)	56.1	4	4	33	25	4.15	1.22	1.74
J.C. Romero (Phi – RP) NA	59	4	1	52	24	2.75	1.34	1.37
Scott Downs (Tor – RP)	70.2	0	5	57	24	1.78	1.15	2.11
Arthur Rhodes (Cin – RP)	35.1	4	2	40	24	2.04	1.25	2.5
Hideki Okajima (Bos – RP)	62	3	1	60	23	2.61	1.16	2.61
Tony Peña (Ari – RP)	72.2	3	3	52	23	4.33	1.33	3.06
Heath Bell (SD – RP)	78	6	0	71	23	3.58	1.21	2.54
Will Ohman (LAD – RP)	58.2	4	1	53	23	3.68	1.24	2.41
Doug Brocail (Hou – RP)	68.2	7	2	64	22	3.93	1.22	3.05
Chad Qualls (Ari – RP)	73.2	4	9	71	22	2.81	1.07	3.94
Octavio Dotel (CWS – RP)	67	4	1	92	21	3.76	1.21	3.17
Taylor Buchholz (Col – RP) DL	66.1	6	1	56	21	2.17	0.95	3.11
Ramón Ramírez (Bos – RP)	71.2	3	1	70	21	2.64	1.23	2.26
Ron Mahay (KC – RP)	64.2	5	0	49	21	3.48	1.39	1.69
Duaner Sánchez (SD – RP)	58.1	5	0	44	21	4.32	1.32	1.91
Chad Bradford (TB – RP) DL	59.1	4	0	17	21	2.12	1.25	1.13
Pedro Feliciano (NYM – RP)	53.1	3	2	50	21	4.05	1.56	1.92
Matt Thornton (CWS – RP)	67.1	5	1	77	20	2.67	1	4.05
Matt Guerrier (Min – RP)	76.1	6	1	59	20	5.19	1.59	1.59

2007

Player	IP	W	SV	K	HLD	ERA	WHIP	K:BB
Brandon Lyon (Det – RP)	74	6	2	40	35	2.68	1.24	1.82
Heath Bell (SD – RP)	93.2	6	2	102	34	2.02	0.96	3.4
Derrick Turnbow (Tex – RP) NA	68	4	1	84	33	4.63	1.32	1.83
Jon Rauch (Ari – RP)	87.1	8	4	71	33	3.61	1.1	3.38
Jonathan Broxton (LAD – RP)	82	4	2	99	32	2.85	1.15	3.96
Scot Shields (LAA – RP)	77	4	2	77	31	3.86	1.23	2.33
Rafael Betancourt (Cle – RP)	79.1	5	3	80	31	1.47	0.76	8.89
Tony Peña (Ari – RP)	85.1	5	2	63	30	3.27	1.1	2.03
Hideki Okajima (Bos – RP)	69	3	5	63	27	2.22	0.97	3.71
Ryan Franklin (StL – RP)	80	4	1	44	25	3.04	1.01	4
J.C. Romero (Phi – RP) NA	56.1	2	1	42	24	1.92	1.4	1.05
Justin Speier (LAA – RP)	50	2	0	47	24	2.88	0.96	3.92
Casey Janssen (Tor – RP) DL	72.2	2	6	39	24	2.35	1.2	1.95
Scott Downs (Tor – RP)	58	4	1	57	24	2.17	1.22	2.38
George Sherrill (Bal – RP)	45.2	2	3	56	22	2.36	0.99	3.29
Bob Howry (SF – RP)	81.1	6	8	72	22	3.32	1.17	3.79
Aaron Heilman (ChC – RP)	86	7	1	63	22	3.03	1.07	3.15
Jamie Walker (Bal – RP)	61.1	3	7	41	21	3.23	1.21	2.41
Frank Francisco (Tex – RP)	59.1	1	0	49	21	4.55	1.6	1.29
Scott Linebrink (CWS – RP)	70.1	5	1	50	21	3.71	1.32	2
Chad Qualls (Ari – RP)	82.2	6	5	78	21	3.05	1.32	3.12
Brian Shouse (TB – RP)	47.2	1	1	32	21	3.02	1.26	2.29
Chad Bradford (TB – RP) DL	64.2	4	2	29	19	3.34	1.44	1.81
Saul Rivera (Was – RP)	93	4	3	64	19	3.68	1.4	1.52
Mike MacDougal (CWS – RP)	42.1	2	0	39	19	6.8	1.96	1.18

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Looking at these numbers, what can we gather? A good team helps, but it’s much more about opportunity. It’s also a pain in the ass to predict who will do well, unless their role of setup man is guaranteed. We can also gather that Holds is a really unnecessary statistic.

Lefties that come in for a batter or two, and then get out of there, are just as valuable as great pitchers.

So who has a shot at doing well this year?

Solid Bets:

Scott Shields & Jose Arredondo – LA Angels

Carlos Marmol – Chicago Cubs

Dan Wheeler – Tampa Bay Rays

Scott Downs – Toronto Blue Jays

Tony Pena – Arizona Diamondbacks

Hideki Okajima – Boston Red Sox

Rafael Perez – Cleveland Indians

J.J. Putz – New York Mets

Ryan Franklin – St. Louis Cardinals

Matt Guerrier – Minnesota Twins

Kyle McClellan – St. Louis Cardinals

The Next Tier

Ryan Madson – Philadelphia Phillies

Rafael Soriano – Atlanta Braves

Scott Linebrink – Chicago White Sox

Rafael Betancourt – Cleveland Indians

J.P. Howell – Tampa Bay Rays

Matt Thorton – Chicago White Sox

Brandon Lyon – Detroit Tigers

Juan Cruz – Kansas City Royals

Joe Beimel – Washington Nationals

Jesse Carlson – Toronto Blue Jays

Edwar Ramirez – New York Yankees

John Grabow – Pittsburgh Pirates

Jeremy Affeldt – San Francisco Giants

C.J. Wilson – Texas Rangers

Who Knows.. Maybe worth the risk.

Renyel Pinto – Florida Marlins

Hong-Chih Kuo – Los Angeles Dodgers

LaTroy Hawkins – Houston Astros

Jesse Crain – Minnesota Twins

Cla Meredith – San Diego Padres

Brian Bruney – New York Yankees

Jerry Blevins – Oakland Athletics

Mark Lowe – Seattle Mariners

Eddie Guadardo – Texas Rangers

I did not enjoy putting this list together at all, and I hope to have listed at least 75% of the guys that finish in the top-25 holds by years’ end.

The question you should ask yourself when drafting holds, is where else can the player contribute.  A lot of the better pitchers will contribute to your ratios and strikeouts, whereas the guys on good teams will contribute to your W totals.

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Catchers

Please, save yourself the trouble and don’t put too much time into your dynasty league catcher.  You’ll definitely fall into one of two groups: the haves, and the have-nots.  If you’re lucky enough to get Brian McCann, Matt Wieters, or Russell Martin, you’re set for the foreseeable future.

If you don’t get one of the big guys, don’t even bother with the catcher position and pick up the highest rated catcher in single-year leagues.  Bengie Molina isn’t a pretty option, but he’ll get the job done. It makes a lot more sense to draft Ramon Hernandez every year, than it does to keep someone like Kurt Suzuki, just in case he breaks out.

Matt Wieters, the number one prospect in baseball, is obviously in the player pool but none of the other young-impact catchers make the list.  There’s no Buster Posey, Carlos Santana, or Jesus Montero.  Your best bet for grabbing a youngin’ probably comes from the catching stable in Texas, both Max Ramirez and Taylor Teagarden are solid prospects.

The first group of catchers are all about 26 years old, excluding Wieters, so you really can’t go wrong.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Brian McCann – ATL Braves – The only one of the bunch without a noticeable flaw.

2. Joe Mauer – MIN Twins - Flaw: Bad Back

3. Geovany Soto – CHI Cubs - Flaw: Only One Year Under His Belt

4. Russell Martin – LA Dodgers - Flaw: Speed will abandon him

You could make an argument for those 4 going in any order you’d like. I think McCann’s power will persevere unlike Martin’s stolen base numbers.  Joe Mauer at second is risky business considering his back is in awful shape, but while Mauer’s GP won’t be consistent, his batting average should be. Depending on how the young Twins shape up, Mauer should improve with age.

5. Matt Wieters – BAL Orioles - Wieters doesn’t even have a job yet, but when you consider very few catchers will get kept you might as well take a risk.  Weiter is also a great draft + trade candidate, as his value will only go up once he reaches the big leagues.

6. Chris Iannetta – COL Rockies – Finally, a Colorado catcher that can hit. Ianetta’s young enough to improve for the next 3 or 4 years, and maintain steady output into his 30’s.

7. Dioner Navarro – TB Rays – Bit of a risky pick here as Navarro is anything but predictable.  The only thing keeping him ahead of Doumit and Martinez is position eligibility.

8. Victor Martinez – CLE Indians – At some point, he’ll be an everyday first basemen or dh.

9. Ryan Doumit – PIT Pirates - Doumit’s already played his fair share of games in the outfield, and I wouldn’t bank on him having catcher eligibility for more than a couple years.

10. Mike Napoli – LA Angels - Limited at-bats, Lots of power.

11. Jarrod Saltalamacchia – TEX Rangers - Don’t write him off yet.

12. Jeff Clement – SEA Mariners - Ditto.

13. Max Ramirez – TEX Rangers - If you do write off Salty..

14. Taylor Teagarden – TEX Rangers – Minors numbers aren’t as pretty as you’d expect.  Solid defender and he plays in Arlington, though.

15. Kelly Shoppach – CLE Indians – Ditto Napoli.

16. Chris Snyder – ARI Diamondbacks

17. Angel Salome – MIL Brewers

18. Bengie Molina – SF Giants

19. Ramon Hernandez – CIN Reds

20. J.R. Towles – HOU Astros

21. Jesus Flores – WAS Nationals

22. A.J. Pierzynski – CHI White Sox

23. John Baker – FLA Marlins

24. Jorge Posada – NY Yankees

25. Ronny Paulino – FLA Marlins

26. Miguel Olivo – KC Royals

27. Nick Hundley – SD Padres

28. Kurt Suzuki – OAK Athletics

29. Jeff Mathis – LA Angels

30. Miguel Montero – ARI Diamondbacks

While I’ve listed these down to 30, I really don’t see any point in wasting a keeper spot on a mediocre catcher just because he’s under 25.  Obviously, when a Matt Wieters or Buster Posey comes along, you should pounce but the amount of FAIL that keeper-league catchers bring to the table is ungodly.

Furthermore, most of these catchers aren’t going to come into their own until their mid-twenties.

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Outfielders

When creating this rankings, I assumed this keeper / dynasty fantasy baseball league would be around for at least 7 or 8 years. Emphasis was placed on the potential for excellence, and players were evaluated based on how many projected top-10 percent seasons they had in ‘em.

This is why Manny Ramirez, who realistically has 2 or 3 good seasons left in him, falls far behind Cameron Maybin who’ll either boom or bust.  Depending on how you weigh risk, this may change.  The easiest way, and I’m not saying it’s the best way, is to just average it out: Maybin will either have 8 great seasons, or 0 great seasons in the next 8 or 9 years.  Therefore, we’ll assume he has 4 great seasons which puts him in line with guys nearing the end of their career like Carlos Lee, Carlos Beltran, Jason Bay, etc.

The First Group of Players (1 in the table) are proven performers who shouldn’t see a decline in the next 3-4 years.  The next Group of Players are proven performers (2 in the table) who will probably see a noticeable drop off in the next 3-4 years. The final group of draft eligible players (3 in the table) are young players with very limited major league experience.  They’re the toughest to place, as they all could potentially be boom or bust players. The Final group of players (4 in the table) are elite prospects that aren’t in the player pool yet.  At least with my keeper league, a player must start the year in the player pool in order for them to be kept.  Is Jason Heyward a top-50 player? Probably.  You should keep an eye on these guys and if they’re available, they’re probably worth a draft pick.

After browsing through the Yahoo Player Pool, it appears as though a few very talented kids snuck in, and they’ll make terrific keepers.  The inclusion of Austin Jackson and Fernando Martinez, leads me to believe that Yahoo may be biased towards New York….naww.

If you can wait a year or two, I’d slot Martinez between LaPorta and McCutchen, and Jackson can be dropped anywhere after about 60-65, depending on how you feel about him.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

OVR	1	OVR	2	OVR	3	OVR	4
1	Ryan Braun	16	Carlos Lee	18	Cameron Maybin		Jason Heyward
2	Grady Sizemore	19	Carlos Beltran	23	Travis Snider		Mike Stanton
3	B.J. Upton	20	Jason Bay	36	Colby Rasmus		Fernando Martinez
4	Matt Kemp	26	Alfonso Soriano	37	Dexter Fowler		Dustin Ackley
5	Josh Hamilton	30	Ichiro Suzuki	39	Matt LaPorta		Austin Jackson
6	Curtis Granderson	31	Magglio Ordonez	48	Andrew McCutchen		Aaron Hicks
7	Jay Bruce	34	Vladimir Guerrero	49	Aaron Cunningham		Nick Weglarz
8	Nick Markakis	41	Manny Ramirez	54	Carlos Gonzalez		Greg Halman
9	Justin Upton	42	Bobby Abreu	55	Jordan Schafer		Ben Revere
10	Corey Hart	75	Raul Ibanez	58	Travis Buck		Desmond Jennings
11	Carl Crawford	76	Johnny Damon	82	Jose Tabata		Julio Borbon
12	Matt Holliday	77	Jermaine Dye	102	Brett Gardner		Mike Saunders
13	Alex Rios	87	J.D. Drew				Drew Stubbs
14	Carlos Quentin	88	Hideki Matsui				Daryl Jones
15	Jacoby Ellsbury	93	Juan Pierre				Michael Burgess
17	Elijah Dukes	96	Mike Cameron				Cole Gillespie
21	Hunter Pence	100	Eric Byrnes				Brian Boquesivc
22	Lastings Milledge	104	Randy Winn				Domnic Brown
24	Adam Jones						Kellen Kulbacki
25	Nate McLouth						Michael Taylor
27	Adam Dunn
28	Chris Young
29	Carlos Gomez
32	Shane Victorino
33	Delmon Young
38	Jeff Francoeur
40	Jeremy Hermida
43	Shin-Soo Choo
44	Adam Lind
45	Rick Ankiel
46	Chase Headley
47	Chris Dickerson
50	Ryan Ludwick
51	Conor Jackson
52	Milton Bradley
53	Brad Hawpe
56	Willy Taveras
57	Nick Swisher
59	Andre Ethier
60	Jayson Werth
61	Pat Burrell
62	Nelson Cruz
63	Michael Bourn
64	Seth Smith
65	Matt Joyce
66	Steve Pearce
67	Franklin Gutierrez
68	Jack Cust
69	Coco Crisp
70	Nate Schierholtz
71	David Murphy
72	Denard Span
73	Xavier Nady
74	Melky Cabrera
78	Felix Pie
79	Kosuke Fukudome
80	Josh Willingham
81	Ben Francisco
83	Torii Hunter
84	Daniel Murphy
86	Jose Guillen
89	Jason Kubel
90	Jerry Owens
91	David DeJesus
92	Fred Lewis
93	Nyjer Morgan
94	Michael Cuddyer
95	Ryan Church
97	Wladimir Balentien
98	Brandon Moss
99	Cody Ross
101	Ryan Sweeney
103	Mark Teahen
105	Ryan Spilborghs
106	Josh Anderson
107	Chris Duncan
108	Gregor Blanco
109	Rajai Davis
110	Fernando Perez

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Third Basemen

No Pedro Alvarez, Josh Vitters or Mike Moustakas in the Yahoo or ESPN Player Pool, looks like you’ll have to wait another year. There are plenty of solid keeper options at third base though, especially of the young and unproven variety.

Whether or not they’ll stick at third base, is a whole different ballgame however.  Currently Miguel Cabrera, Chris Davis, Russell Martin, Mark DeRosa, Marco Scutaro, Felipe Lopez, Hank Blalock, Chase Headley and Jed Lowrie have third base eligibility in Yahoo Leagues, but they haven’t been included because I either don’t think they’ll stick or they’ll provide greater vlaue elsewhere.

Banking on Miguel Cabrera logging 15 Games at 3rd for the next 10 years is a bit iffy, and if you’re drafting Russell Martin — You’re playing him at catcher. A-Rod’s probably got a couple years at DH in him as well, which would warrant him a higher overall than positional rank.  He scoots ahead of Longoria in the overall ranks.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. David Wright – NY Mets – 26 - I thought he had another year to wait, but with Rodriguez’s injury, Wright’s the best third base option, and should continue stealing 15+ bases for the next 4 years.

2. Evan Longoria – TB Rays – 23 - Longoria’s a talent, but I’d expect somewhat of a sophomore slump this year. Blasphemy, I know. In the long run, he should provide you with 10 years of top-3 third basemen play.  A few more SB would be nice.

3. Alex Rodriguez – NY Yankees – 33 - Loses a few months to injury, but he’ll play well into his late 30’s. I’ll take 4 years of first-round talent over 8 years of 5th round talent, any day.

4. Ryan Zimmerman – WAS Nationals – 24 - It’s a tough choice between Zimmerman and Gordon. Gordon ends up being the better player, but Washington surrounds Zimmerman with more talent.

5. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 - Re-upped with Boston, and should produce at a high level for at least 5 more years.  There’s the possibility that Youkilis gets moved back to third to make room for Lars Anderson.

6. Alex Gordon – KC Royals – 25 - If Gordon wants to cash in on all that talent and become a superstar, 2009’s the year.  KC’s putting together a squad that can mash, and they’ll at least be fun to watch.

7. Edwin Encarnacion – CIN Reds – 26 – 2009 is the year Encarnacionn puts it together. I dont think he has the talent of a Zimmerman or Gordon, but the ballpark’s definitely in his favour.  I’d have no problem ranking Edwin above both Zimmerman and Gordon.

8. Aramis Ramirez – CHI Cubs – 30 - Same boat as Youkilis.

9. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 - I haven’t the slightest clue where Sandoval plays out his career, but his versatility can’t hurt.  There’s a good amount of risk associated with Sandoval, and I think you’ll probably have to overpay to get him in any keeper league.

10. Mark Reynolds – ARI Diamondbacks – 25 - Lots of power, not much average.  You’re getting what you pay for.

11. Chipper Jones – ATL Braves – 36 - Where to put Chipper? He can’t stay healthy, and he’s getting old.  He did post his best batting average ever as a 35 year old.  You’ve probably got two years of top-5 third basemen, and 1 year old top-10.  Adjust your rankings based on the depth of your league.

12. Garrett Atkins – COL Rockies – 29 - If Atkins stays in Colorado, he’s probably two spots higher.  Unfortunately, I can’t see him sticking around the mile-high city. Best case scenario: Atkins plays the year out at 3rd base, and eventually gets moved to first base — but he gets to stay in Colorado.  Worst Case: Atkins gets traded to a not-so-hitter-friendly park.

13. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - His next five years could be 30HR, 25HR, 8HR, 17HR, 32HR.  It’s really two bad that he was such a terrible second basemen.  The Marlins are stacked with young talent, so he should continue to put up R & RBI numbers.  There’s also the chance that Florida cleans house again.

14. Adrian Beltre – SEA Mariners – 29 - I can’t believe he’s only 29. He’s been underachieving for almost 10 years now!  Taking a peek at Beltre’s numbers is quite enjoyable. In a purely baseball sense, a sense that takes into account his stellar defense, the Mariners really didn’t waste that massive wad of cash-money signing Beltre.  Now, if only someone could get on base for him.

15. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Who knows what he develops into. He’s ceilings probably 7th or 8th, and his basement is about Joe Crede.

16. Aubrey Huff – BAL Orioles – 32 – Eligibility is going to be a problem going forth.

17. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 – Same boat as Stewart.  Wood’s massive power potential at the shortstop position is worth the risk, but at the third base position 30 HR isn’t all that uncommon.

18. Mat Gamel – MIL Brewers – 23 – His defense is getting better, and he’s almost a below average third baseman.  I don’t know if he’ll stick at third, but he’s got a whoooole lotta potential.

19. Josh Fields – CHI White Sox – 26 – This could be Gamel four years from now.  Fields has got a boatload of potential, and I’d be taking a chance on him.  All of the reports out of Spring Training are encouraging.

20. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 – I probably screwed up this Figgins ranking, but it’s impossible to judge atypical performers in keeper leagues.  In a keeper league, you can’t really gameplan around Figgins by drafting a power-hitting MI to offset Figgins’ lack of power from a typical HR-hitting position. You just want to put together the best team without getting too cute.  With Figgins’ injury history, and almost all of his value coming from speed — I’d  avoid him as my third baseman.

21. Brett Wallace – STL Cardinals – 22 – Ooooh, Ahhhh! Baseball America has him only six spots lower than the mucho-hyped-upped-o, Mat Gamel.  Wallace comes in at the 40th best prospect, and a whole lotta power potential.  Glaus is getting old, and who knows how long Freese can hold Wallace off.  Well worth the risk at this point.

22. Kevin Kouzmanoff – SD Padres – 27 - I have an unhealthy hatred for San Diego third basemen.  I think it’s because I sat on Sean Burroughs for so long. Anyways, here’s a tidbit about Burroughs: After winning the league little world series, a team coached by his father and 1974 AL MVP, Jeff Burroughs; Sean was invited onto David Letterman.  When asked what his dream job was, instead of coming up with the obvious answer of:  “follow in my dad’s footsteps and become a ball player,” Burroughs told Letterman he wanted to be a gynecologist. Kids say the darndest things.  Anyways, I do not want the Kouz on my team.

23. Troy Glaus – STL Cardinals – 32 - Still has a few good years left in him, 2009 isn’t one of those years. He’s got Wallace breathing down his neck, too.

24. Carlos Guillen – DET Tigers – 33 – Detroit will find a spot for Guillen to play, and Guillen should produce for a couple more years.

25. Andy LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 25 - Now that he’s with his brother, and hopefully relaxed — LaRoche is probably a very profitable risk to take heading into 2009.

26. Joe Crede – MIN Twins – 30 – Signed a one-year deal with the Twins.

27. Dayan Viciedo – CHI White Sox – 20 – Cuba, Cuba.  Should be solid, if/when Josh Fields fails.  Even if Fields succeeds, Viciedo will probably snag a spot in the outfield.  At the very least, keep an eye on him.

28. Melvin Mora – BAL Orioles – 37 – I couldn’t believe that Mora was 37 Years old.  Maybe 1 or 2 seasons of 90+ RBI left in ‘em.

29. Bill Hall – MIL Brewers – 29 - Bill Hall should be in his prime, he’s not.  He’s having trouble making contact, let alone smash-killing.  With Gamel breathing down his neck, maybe this year’s the year.

30. Matt Tuiasosopo – SEA Mariners – Solid youngster, you might have to wait a couple years.  I dont see him being anything special though.

31. Mike Lowell – BOS Red Sox – 35

32. Wilson Betemit – CHI White Sox – 27

33. Ty Wigginton – BAL Orioles – 31

34. Jose Bautista – TOR Jays – 28

35. Jeff Keppinger – HOU Astros – 28

36. Brian Buscher – MIN Twins – 27

37. Conor Gillaspie – SF Giants – 21 – I think Gillaspie flops.  Maybe you want to move him above Tuiasosopo, but I dont.

38. Russell Branyan – SEA Mariners – 33

38. Jack Hannahan – OAK Athletics – 29

39. Eric Chavez – OAK Athletics – 31

40. Casey Blake – LA Dodgers – 35

41. Scott Rolen – TOR Blue Jays – 33

Unfortunately, I’m sick as a dog, and the regular season is only a few days ago — So if these seemed rushed, they are.

Top First Basemen In Keeper Dynasty League

The Top First Basemen In A Dynasty League

Here we go with the Top First Basemen in a keeper or dynasty league format.  As always, these rankings are based on keeping a large portion of your roster in a deep league.  In shallower leagues, or ‘contract’ leagues, you should focus  on keeping players in their prime.

First basemen enter their power-prime around age 27ish and commence  a steady, predictable decline around age 30-31ish.  First basemen generally continue to produce well into their mid-30’s.

Unlike other positions, first basemen stick around for a while and often get moved to DH, prolonging their careers; thus, taking risks is generally quite advisable, as the waiver wire should be stacked with talent.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Miguel Cabrera – DET Tigers – 25 - This is a tough one because you’re guaranteed three more years of first round production from Albert Pujols. Cabrera on the other hand is just entering his prime, and you’ll probably get 8 years worth of top-15 production.  If you’re allowed to keep a player for an unlimited number of years, Cabrera’s the pick.

2. Albert Pujols – STL Cardinals – 29 - As mentioned above, Pujols is going to put up top-5 numbers for the next few years.  Throw in three or four more years of being a top-5 first basemen, and we’re golden.  There will probably be an injury plagued season somewhere in that run, but he’s still better than the next couple guys.

3. Mark Texeira – NY Yankees – 28 – Teixeira is a beast, and now that he’s in pinstripes, you should be expecting ridiculous RBI and RUN totals. I’m still not sold on Teixera as a high-30’s HR threat or a .300+ hitter, but he’ll contribute across the board. Not that it really matters, but Texeira’s defense is also stellar.

4. Prince Fielder – MIL Brewers – 24 - Fielder hasn’t quite reached elite status, but he’s well on his way.  A return to 50 HR isn’t out of the question, but I wouldn’t expect him to repeat the feat more than once or twice in his career.  Expecting high-30’s to low-40’s HR power for the next 8 to 10 years, seems like a fair guess-ti-mate.  Fielder seems locked in at 12% BB-rate and 20% K rate, which is just dandy for a power hitting first baseman.  If you’re a risk taker, feel free to take Fielder as the number-1 first baseman.

5. Justin Morneau – MIN Twins – 27 - Prior to crumbling down the stretch, Morneau showed all of the signs you’d like to see from a maturing hitter.  At first look, Morneau’s sharp decline in ISO ( .199 after two years of .220+) and HR (23 after two seasons of 30+) is troublesome.

That is until you take a peak at his decreased strike-out rate and increased walk rate which reveal maturation as a hitter.  Morneau also swung less (50% -> 48%), made more contact (82% – > 85%) , and drew less first pitch strikes (59% -> 56%).  Morneau hit more line-drives, and his HR/FB rate dropped. HR/FB is *generally* just a luck issue, and you should expect Morneau to improve upon his paltry 11.2% rate of 2008.

6. Ryan Howard – PHI Phillies – 29 - Nothing interesting here.  Howard will eclipse 40 HR for the next 4 or 5 years, and he’ll strike-out a whole hoot of a lot. Howard’s batting average was pretty awful last year, but that had a lot to due with luck.  He should finish his career with an average around .275-.280 when all is said and done.

7. Adrian Gonzalez – SD Padres – 26 - Drafted first overall  by the Rangers in the 2000 draft, Gonzalez couldn’t find his mojo in one of the most hitter friendly parks in the show.  Then, through some crazy twist of fate, Gonzalez developed into a power-hitting beast in one of the worst parks for hitters, PETCO. If Gonzalez can ever get his butt out of San Diego, he’ll be a monster.  In 2008, Gonzalez went for 22 road home runs and 14 at home.  His SLG percentage splits of .578 (road) / .433 (home), are downright ridiculous. Even if he sticks around in San Diego, he’ll be darn good.

8. Joey Votto – CIN Reds – 25 – This is where it starts to get interesting, as Votto’s really the only youngster with a track record.  Votto’s in a great park, but he’s not quite superstar material.  Mind you, neither is fellow canuck Justin Morneau and he won an MVP.  Votto and Morneau are just plain ol’ hitters, and while Votto doesn’t quite have the raw power, he should grow into a yearly 30-HR guy.

9. Chris Davis – TEX Rangers – 23 - I really don’t know where I sit with Davis.  The experts are buying Davis’ smash-killing numbers from last year, but I can’t stop looking at that awful .23 BB:K ratio.  If Davis can get that walk rate to 10%, he’ll prove the experts right.  If you think Davis succeeds, this is where you draft him.  Otherwise, you might as well drop him to 20th overall.  I couldn’t bring myself to drop him 10 spots, so I put him here. Solid logic, right?

10. Adam Dunn – WAS Nationals – 29 - He’ll hit 40 home runs, and strike out about 30 percent of the time.  He’ll probably keep this up for at least 4 or 5 more years, and the Nats have a young and improving line-up.  If you’re in an OBP league, Dunn’s value goes up a good bit.

11. Kevin Youkilis – BOS Red Sox – 30 – Youkilis’ skill set is an interesting one to say the least. In 2008, he posted an OPS of .958, which I doubt he’ll repeat. At the same time, if he continues hitting 29 HR a year, he’ll be useful.  However, Youkilis is 30 years old, and probably had his career year in 2008.  He’ll be with the Sox for at least 4 more years, which guarantees him ’round about 100 Runs and RBI each year.  If you hate risk like the plague, Youkilis is your guy.

12. Billy Butler – KC Royals – 22 - Butler’s a professional hitter, and should develop into one hell of a hitter.  He won’t put up ridiculous power numbers and you’ll probably have to endure a couple prolonged slumps over the coming years, but it’ll be worth the wait.  The Royals should continue to improve, and Butler could bust out as soon as this year.

13. Lance Berkman – HOU Astros – 33 - Berkman is one of the better hitters at this point, and should put up top 5 or 6 first basemen numbers in 2009. He’s starting to get old though, and the speed numbers could abandon him as soon as this year.  He’ll probably decline 5 spots  in the first basemen rankings each year,  for the next 2 or 3 years.

14. James Loney – LA Dodgers – 24 – He should eventually develop into an across the board producer.

15. Matt LaPorta – CLE Indians – 24 - LaPorta’s an unique talent, and selecting him or one of the next couple guys over someone like Derrek Lee, Adam LaRoche, or Casey Kotchman is probably a wise idea.

16. Lars Anderson – BOS Red Sox – 21 - He’s in the player pool, and I’d have no problem jumping all over Baseball America’s 17th ranked prospect.  It’s too bad that Justin Smoak isn’t in the player pool too.

17. Conor Jackson – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 - Jackson’s entering his prime, and he should continue to add power while maintaining a solid .300-AVG

18.  Daric Barton – OAK Athletics – 23 - Barton’s a better hitter than he displayed last year. Barton is also better on field than he is on the stat-sheet.  If you’re in an OBP league, his value sky-rockets.  You may have to wait a couple years, but he should eventually fulfill his potential.

19. Pablo Sandoval – SF Giants – 22 – Sandoval won’t continue to tear the hide of the ball like he did in 2008, but he does have legit 20 HR power.  Sandoval doesn’t walk all that much, but he also keeps his K-Rate at a respectable 10%

20. Adam LaRoche – PIT Pirates – 29 - Lots of power, and is just starting to come into his own.  If LaRoche ever figures out how to hit before the All Star break like he does after it, he’ll be a legitimate keeper.  With lots of talent in the Pittsburgh pipeline (McCutchen, Pearce, Tabata, and Alvarez,) you’d have to expect improved R & RBI numbers as he ages.

20.5 Derrek Lee – CHI Cubs – 33 – Woopsie, I forgot Derrek Lee.  Lee’s a solid bet for another year or two of usefulness.  Counting on those stolen bases could be risky.

21. Jorge Cantu – FLA Marlins – 27 - Strikes out too much, but doesn’t everyone in Florida? With McPherson gone and Sanchez in the pipe-line, I’d expect a return to third. Unless of course you think that Emilio Bonifacio is a steady option at third.

22. Carlos Pena – TAM Rays – 30 - If he returns to the 2007 version, he’ll be a solid investment for 3 to 5 years.  If not, the 2008 version provides a solid, yet not spectacular, stop-gap at your first base spot until Smoak, Hosmer, or Alonso become draft eligible.

23. Casey Kotchman – ATL Braves – 26 - Kotchman’s the epitome of average.  Even if he develops 20-HR power, he’s nothing more than a steady presence at first base.  If you’re in a deep league and the waiver wire holds guys like Frank Catalanotto, Ross Gload and Darin Erstad — Kotchman is definitely worth a keeper spot.

24. Kendry Morales – LA Angels – 25 - Morales has more potential than Kotchman, but a skimpy track record.  He’s also been tagged fat and lazy, which isn’t good unless you’re hitting 50-HR. Morales tore up AAA last year, and a 25-HR season wouldn’t surprise me.

25. Gaby Sanchez – FLA Marlins – 25 – Optioned to AAA, but should be back up at some point this year.

26. Kyle Blanks – SD Padres – 22 – Great talent.  Baseball America has this 270 pounder as their 50th best prospect.  If you’re in a deep league, he’s worth the risk.  Not sure where he plays, though.

27. Mike Jacobs – KC Royals – 28 – Not sure why the Royals brought Jacobs in with Kila Ka’aihue waiting in the wings.  Why did they bring Jacobs in?  Anyone?  He’ll hit home-runs but he strikes out a shit-tonne.

It’s time to lump some players together. Here are a few guys that really aren’t keepers, and you’ll only get a year or two out of them; realistically they’re just roster fillers. Konerko’s the youngest of the bunch, but he’ll also probably retire at the youngest age.

28a) Carlos Delgado – NY Mets – 36

28b) Todd Helton – COL Rockies – 35

28c) Jason Giambi – OAK Athletics – 38

28d) Paul Konerko – CHI White Sox – 33

29. Ryan Garko – CLE Indians – 28 - Starting to get crowded in Cleveland.

30. Travis Ishikawa – SF Giants – 25 – Should be a serviceable starter for at least a few years.

31. Hank Blalock – TEX Rangers – 28 - I feel more comfortable predicting a resurgence in a 1 year league.

32. Nick Johnson – WAS Nationals – 30 - I’m willing to bet that Johnson stays healthy this year, but not consecutive years.

33. Chad Tracy – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 - Could have a solid year in 2009, assuming Eric Byrnes doesn’t indirectly steal his job.

34. Joe Koshansky – TEX Rangers – 26 - Out from Todd Helton’s Shadow.  Who knows what he can do if he’s ever given a chance.

I think it’s fairly clear to see how you should readjust your rankings if you’re not in a deep league.  There’s a good amount of roster-filler at the first base position, so taking a risk on the young guns is definitely worth it.

There a couple more heavy hitting first basemen in the Minors, but with LaPorta, Butler, Barton, Sandoval, Lars Anderson and Chris Davis around — I’d grab one this year.

Top Second Basemen In Keeper Dynasty League

Second basemen don’t grow on trees, and they’re pretty tough to predict coming out of the minors.  You’ll find most second basemen are converted shortstops that lack athleticism or a gun for an arm.  Learning the pivot, or learning how to read the ball from the other side of the diamond aren’t easy, but they’re a lot easier than adding range or a better arm…..now that steroids are gone, anyways.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

1. Ian Kinsler – TEX Rangers – 26 – Edges out Pedroia’s career year of 2008.  Kinsler has to avoid injury, but other than that he’s a great power-speed combo. I’d like to see Kinsler show *it* for another year before giving him this spot, but I’m just not that high on Pedroia’s skill-set.

2. Dustin Pedroia – BOS Red Sox – 25 – Not the most talented guy, but he’s got a solid average and is in a great line-up.

3. Chase Utley – PHI Phillies – 30 - Utley starts the year out on the DL, and he’s starting to get old for a MI.  You should expect 3 or 4 more years of great power numbers.

4. Brandon Phillips – CIN Reds – 27 – Great Power / Speed combo, and so long as the Reds are mediocre, he’ll continue to swipe bags well into his early-to-mid thirties.  Great ballpark, and a maturing Bruce / Votto combo should start driving him in.

5. Alexei Ramirez – CHI White Sox – 27 - I couldn’t be more on the fence about Ramirez.  He ranks lower as a shortstop than a second basemen.  I tend to think that the Ramirez SS experience doesn’t last more than a year or so.  Ramirez reminds everyone of Alfonso Soriano, as he’ll swing at damn near anything.  If pitchers figure him out, he’ll be in trouble.

6. Dan Uggla – FLA Marlins – 29 - A Whole lotta power that’ll stick around for at least another 4 or 5 years. I dont know how many 100 R / 100 RBI seasons he’s got left in him though.

7. Howie Kendrick – LA Angels – 25 - Should eventually become a hitting machine. He’s a unique talent that just can’t stay healthy.  The Angels are a solid franchise, and although they’re aging — they’ll reload, allowing Kendrick to score boat-loads of runs.

8. Robbie Cano – NY Yankees – 26 - Cano should return to his .300+ ways, in which case he’ll be moved up a spot or two.  Wherever he hits, he’ll score ‘em and knock ‘em in. I’d like to see a couple months of the old Cano before I get too excited.

9. Kelly Johnson – ATL Braves – 27 - Should continue to develop as he matures.  Solid Braves line-up, and some power potential in there.

10. Jose Lopez – SEA Mariners – 25 – Young and talented, but I’m worried about him repeating his stellar 2008 season though.  Who knows how awful that Mariners line-up will be in 2009, let alone when Ichiro departs.

11. Brian Roberts – BAL Orioles – 31 - I’m not sure how much speed Roberts has left in those legs.  He’ll probably have a couple 30+ SB seasons left in ‘em, and the O’s line-up is improved enough to knock him in.  When he falls off though, he’s going to fall off hard and fast.  Roberts is one of the nicer guys in the big leagues, which is strange considering he was all up in that Mitchell Report.

12. Rickie Weeks – MIL Brewers – 26 - He’s got a year, maybe two, to put it all together.  Even if he doesn’t put it together, he’ll contribute steals and runs without hurting you *too* much.

13. Chone Figgins – LA Angels – 31 - Injuries starting to catch up to him, and who knows how long he’ll keep his second base eligibility. It’ll be nice to see what Figgins can do with a return to full health.  He’s been used sparingly, so he’s probably got a few more years left in those legs.

14. Ian Stewart – COL Rockies – 23 - Power potential + Plays in Coors.  That’s pretty much all you need to know.  He may fit better at 3rd, or in the outfield.  Lots of potential here though.

15. Matt Antonelli – SD Padres – 23 – First of the big-name prospects, Antonelli has had a rollercoaster ride in the Minors.  He still projects to be damn good though. Unfortunately, he plays in San Diego.

16. Alexi Casilla – MIN Twins – 24 – I like Alexi more than most, and he’ll bring a solid BA and SB numbers to the table.

17. Aaron Hill – TOR Blue Jays – 27 - If Aaron Hill picks up where he left off, he’ll mature into a second basemen with low-20’s HR power.  Post Concussion really sidetracked him, and who knows if he’ll ever be the same.

18. Mike Aviles – KC Royals – 28 – KC will be improved, but you’re drafting Aviles average which isn’t the safest bet.  Remember how Sanchez followed up his .330 BA season?  Always be hesitant drafting late bloomers.

19. Felipe Lopez – ARI Diamondbacks – 28 – Yah Yah Yah – I’m big on Lopez, You get it.

20. Eric Young Jr. – COL Rockies – 23 - Young’s stock has been more volatile than the DOW.  With an amazing Arizona Fall League, and Spring Training — Young’s back.  With Colorado’s outfield crowded with top-tier prospects, he may stick at 2nd.  He’s back in the minors for the time being though. When he gets the call, he’ll at least contribute to SB to start.

21. Absdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians – 23 - He may take a while to mature, and you’re going to need patience.  He could show flashes as soon as this year. He’s a solid sleeper this year, and a great buy-low keeper option.

22. Chris Getz – CHI White Sox – 25 – If he was guarenteed the job, he’d be higher.  Dustin Pedroia brought scrappy, unathletic, slow, short, white-dude back in style and Getz should cash in.  All Getz has to do is fight off Nix and Lillibridge.

23. Aki Iwamura – TB Rays – 30 - He’ll score 100 runs for the next couple years.

24. Alberto Callaspo – KC Royals – 25 - I thought the D-Backs would hold onto Callaspo; alas he’s part of the KC mess at 2b.  He might project as a better UTIL player than an everyday player but there’s upside in there, somewhere.

25. Mark DeRosa – CLE Indians – 34 - A solid bet for a year or two of solid production.  Not 2008-type production, but production.

26. Anderson Hernandez – WAS Nationals – 26 – I’m not sure how this mess turns out, but it’ll have minimum value for the next couple years unless Hernandez rises to the top of the newly potent Nats line-up.

27. Eric Patterson – OAK Athletics – 25 - Probably projects as an outfielder, but the A’s were wise to nab him from the Cubs. Patterson was recently optioned, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see him get the call as soon as this year.

28. Orlando Hudson – LA Dodgers – 31 – He’s in a solid line-up, and he’ll contribute for maybe a year and a half.  Realistically, Hudson could go anywhere from 23rd to 30th.

29. Kaz Matsui – HOU Astros – 33 - No more anal fissures.  He’ll hit for a decent average, score runs and steal bases.  Nice filler while you wait on the next big thing.

30. Emmanuel Burriss – SF Giants – 24 - Lots of Speed, but’ll probably have to battle tooth and nail for the 2B job.  We’ll see soon enough… Bruce Bochy announces the winner tomorrow, I believe.

31. Placido Polanco – DET Tigers – 33 - Detroit’s got a solid line-up, and I think Polanco has another year and a bit left in it.  He’ll hit for a good average and score runs. Second Base gets old in a hurry.

32. Freddy Sanchez – PIT Pirates – 31 - Paying for batting average is the last thing I’d do.  If the LaRoche brothers somehow transform into the steroid era bash brothers, then maybe Sanchez will have long-term value.

33. Mike Fontenot – CHI Cubs – 28 - Fontenot or Miles, they’ll probably split the job until a Free Agent comes in.  Both of their values are thrown in the trash because of the time-share.

34. Blake DeWitt – LA Dodgers – 23 - I’m assuming he’ll eventually come in at third-base, rather than second. Should be an above average UTIL guy, with a season of two worth of starter’s production.

35. Jerry Hairston Jr. – CIN Reds – 32 - Cheapo steals and average this year.

36. Luis Valbuena – CLE Indians – 24 - Keep an eye out.

37. Clint Barmes – COL Rockies – 30 - Boring.

38. Mark Ellis – OAK Athletics – 31 - Ditto.

39. Willy Aybar – TAM Rays – 26 – There’s actually some value in Aybar’s versatility, but he’s not a keeper.

40. Kevin Frandsen – SF Giants – 26 - I don’t think he keeps the job for more than a year, or a month, or a month, or a week.

41. Travis Denker – SD Padres – 23 - Antonelli has it, but keep an eye out.

Skip Schumaker – STL Cardinals – 29 - Skip’s been working out at second base all spring and if he lands the job, which he should, he’ll be able to contribute.  I wouldn’t feel bad about putting him in the Mid-to-High Teens.

Mark Teahan – KC Royals – 27 - There’s no way he sticks at 2B.  He’s athletic as hell, and has a good arm — but he’ll need some serious seasoning to pick the position up.  If he does, he has above average power and is in an improving Royals line-up.  Low-20s.

2009 Keeper Dynasty League Shortstops

If you’re in a keeper league, shortstop is always the hardest position to fill.  In 2009, the shortstop position is a mess and if you don’t get one early, you’re in trouble.

Luckily there’s help just around the corner, unfortunately it’s not in the yahoo player pool quite yet. Mike Moustakas, and Gordon Beckham aren’t all that far away and should probably be in the pool by next year, if not later this year.  Tim Beckham and Wilmer Flores on the other hand are still a couple years away, but you never know what Yahoo and ESPN will do to their player pool come 2010.

C- 1B – 2B – SS – 3B – OF - SP – RP

Onto the Shortstop Rankings for a Deep (ish) Keeper or Dynasty League

1. Hanley Ramirez – FLA Marlins – 25 - Number one pick in fantasy this year, and probably for the next 5 years.  Any decrease in speed should be off-set by an increase in power.

2. Jose Reyes – NY Mets – 25 - At some point he’ll develop power, until then just enjoy the ride.  The first two picks really need no explanation at all.

3. Troy Tulowitzki – COL Rockies – 24 - This is where the explanations begin:  Tulo isn’t the most talented offensive shortstop left on the board, but he does play in Colorado. His glove-work will help keep him on the field throughout the worst o’ slumps.

4. Stephen Drew – ARI Diamondbacks – 26 – Drew has better offensive potential than Tulo and is starting to come into his own.  This may be Drew’s break-out year, and ranking Drew and Tulowitzki is a coin flip.

5. Alexei Ramirez – CHI White Sox – 27 - Ramirez is a popular pick this year, and he brings a rare power/speed combo to the table. He’s a free swinger, and while I woudln’t go out of my way to pick him in a one year league; he has solid long-term value.

6. J.J. Hardy – MIL Brewers – 26 - Hardy brings much needed power to a light hitting position. At 26, Hardy is just starting to enter his power prime.  Expect improvement.

7. Jimmy Rollins – PHI Phillies – 30 - Rollins had a terrible year last year, but he managed to save it by stealing a shit-tonne of bases.  The speeds slowly going to fade away, so Rollins needs to prove he return to his 20-30 HR days.

8. Rafael Furcal – LA Dodgers – 31 – Furcal’s starting to get up there in age and he’s pretty gosh-darn fragile.  I’m assuming 31 is his actual age, but who knows. He’s still performing at an efficient level, and there shouldn’t be a drop off for another couple years.  Nice Power/Speed combo.

9. Jhonny Peralta – CLE Indians – 26 - Peralta is a masher and after his disastrous 2006 season, he’s continued to improve.  He’s pretty much a lock for 20+ HR, and should continue to improve.  His batting average no longer kills him, so he’s a nice bet for your starting SS.

10. Yunel Escobar – ATL Braves – 26 - I probably have Escobar higher than most, but with an eye like Escobar’s — there’s something there.  Escobar posted damn-near as many walks as he did strike-outs, and while his batting average was sub-.300, he’ll push it up and over that mark to stay in 2009. Escobar isn’t a power guy, nor is he a speed guy but he is going to be the SS for a young, talented, Braves team.  With the amount he gets on base, he’ll be scoring plenty of runs with Franceour, Schafer, Heyward, and the harem of minor-league talent in Atlanta.

11. Elvis Andrus – TEX Rangers – 20 - Speed, Speed and more Speed.  He’ll develop the rest in due time.  The stolen bases should keep him rosterable during the slow maturation process though.

12. Derek Jeter – NY Yankees – 34 - I haven’t the fondest clue as to how much Jeter has left in the tank, let alone how long he’ll stick at shortstop.  While he’s there, he’ll provide a little bit of everything.

13. Brandon Wood – LA Angels – 24 - Does he stick at short? Does he cut down on those strike-outs? Wood has all of the potential in the world, but unless he cuts down on those K’s, he’ll be one of the biggest busts of the century.

14. Alcides Escobar – MIL Brewers – 22 – Escobar’s got a great glove, that’ll keep him in any line-up.  He’s currently blocked by Hardy at SS, but Hardy will be the one to move.  Milwaukee has enough talent in the pipe-line to trade Matt LaPorta, so there’s no reason to believe that Escobar won’t be a run scoring machine.

15. Jed Lowrie – BOS Red Sox – 24 - I’m not a believer, and I’m not sure how long he’ll stick at the shortstop position.  If he sticks, he’ll provide great value from a hard to fill position.

16. Michael Young – TEX Rangers – 32 - Young’s shortstop eligibility is gone after this year.  I’m not sure where to rank him based on this.  He’ll probably log between 10 and 15 games at Shortstop this year, so he could potentially maintain his eligibility. He’s got a great team, and a great ballpark which leads  me to believe that he’ll remain useful for a few more years.

This is where the fun begins, as we’re getting into the guys that aren’t guarenteed a job, or are old as dirt.  Either way, expecting more than 2 seasons out of them is asking a lot.  If you’ve got a feeling — go with it!

17. Mike Aviles – KC Royals – 28 - Is Aviles a late-bloomer or a bust waiting to happen.  Aviles just keeping the seat warm for Moustakas.

18. Miguel Tejada – HOU Astros – 34 - I’m not sure what’s left in the tank, even if he avoided jail time.  He’s probably got about 2 years left of being somewhat rosterable. The solid Astro’s line-up should at least keep his counting stats up.

19. Khalil Greene – STL Cardinals – 29 - I’m tempering my man-crush on Khalil in the keeper rankings.  Greene has the potential to really move up these rankings, and he’s still young enough to contribute for 4 or 5 more years.  I’d definitely recommend taking a flier on Greene this year.

20. Ryan Theriot – CHI Cubs – 29 – As high as I am on Greene, I’m equally as down on Theriot.  I am not a believer, and after this year he may well be without a job.  There’s potential here, but I’m not buying the hype.  The solid line-up really saves him from a free-fall.

21.  Felipe Lopez – ARZ Diamondbacks – 29 - I like Lopez a good bit this year, and he has a whole lotta potential buried inside — somewhere.  If he’s allowed to run, he’ll fit somewhere between Wood and Jeter.

22. Jason Barlett – TAM Rays – 29 - Barlett’s in a solid line-up and has improved quite a bit since he was traded away from Minnesota. Tampa has a prospect line-up waiting to fill Barlett’s shoes.  If Brignac fails to man up, Bartlett will have a few years to put up stats before Beckham gets to the show.

23. Orlando Cabrera – OAK Athletics – 35 - You might get more than a couple years out of Cabrera. He seems like the kind of player that just wont go away.  He’ll be production for at least 2009, and he might be worth a pick if you think he’ll play at a high level into his late 30s.

24. Edgar Renteria – SF Giants – 34 - Renteria falls into the same category as Cabrera, and while there’s still a few prospects out there — I’d rather take someone like Renteria to contribute the next couple years while I wait to draft a SS prospect.

25. Erick Aybar – LA Angels – 25 – Aybar is a nice little mixture of speed and average.  I’m fairly high on Wood, because of his potential.  Aybar doesn’t have the potential, but he probably has a solid shot at sticking at SS even if Wood starts producing.

26. Absdrubal Cabrera – CLE Indians – 23: I like Cabrera, and he should develop into a solid every day second basemen.  He’s got the potential to be above average, but there’s also a bit of risk associated with him.  He’s got the job however, so he’s one of the safer choices under 25 years old.

27. Yuniesky Betancourt

28. Clint Barmes

29. Chin-lung Hu

30. Alberto Gonzalez

31. Brendan Harris

32. Nick Punto

33. Reid Brignac

34. Emmanuel Burriss

35. Alberto Callaspo

36. Nick Punto

37. Brent Lillibridge

38. Marco Scutaro

39. Jerry Hairston Jr.

40. Cody Ransom

The back end of these rankings needs work, but if you’re in a league this deep — you’re probably pretty knowledge about fantasy baseball.

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