FTW

2010 Adjusted ESPN Shortstop Rankings

Shortstop isn’t exactly shallow this year, but one thing stands out more than anything else:  At-Bats.  It’s all about ABs.

In fantasy baseball, plate appearances and walks aren’t counted as primary statistics.  The importance of a players batting average has everything to do with his at-bats.  After that, we’re dealing with some speedsters that deal with hammy and quad injuries every second week.

At shortstop, more than any other position, there’s uncertainty around a lot of players about their health or role on the club.

Based on stats alone, we’re dealing with 12 mandatory shortstops as well as Aybar slipping into a UTIL position on someone’s squad.  With that in mind, here’s the distribution charts:

As you can see with the histogram, there’s some depth at the back end of this. The 13 players we use don’t begin to enter the back-end of the normal distribution curve.

Ryan Theriot, J.J. Hardy, Miguel Tejada Jhonny Peralta, Marco Scutaro and Evereth Cabrera are projected to finish within about 10-15pts away from Aybar.

Quite simply, instead of wasting a draft-pick on the lower tier of shortstops, you might as well wait until the later rounds and grab someone that’s just on the cusp.  Maximizing value per pick is important and unless you’re in love with a name — I’d say get your SS early or get him late.

PLAYER_NAME	POSITION	R	HR	RBI	SB	ESPN_AVERAGE	AB	A_AB	Hits	Tts
Hanley Ramirez	SS	113	29	91	34	0.324	603	562	195	378.81
Jimmy Rollins	SS	103	19	79	32	0.273	630	599.5	172	308.79
Troy Tulowitzki	SS	100	28	95	14	0.293	522	505	153	305.8
Derek Jeter	SS	103	16	68	22	0.315	583	570	184	295.09
Jose Reyes	SS	93	11	54	47	0.283	541	430.5	153	286.13
Stephen Drew	SS	87	19	75	8	0.289	550	527.5	159	250.61
Asdrubal Cabrera	SS	83	11	76	18	0.300	475	470.5	142	243.84
Elvis Andrus	SS	79	6	60	40	0.280	436	425.5	122	242.42
Alexei Ramirez	SS	79	17	72	13	0.282	527	515	149	239.67
Yunel Escobar	SS	89	15	71	6	0.303	490	491.5	148	236.39
Jason Bartlett	SS	72	11	59	24	0.277	493	485.5	137	223.75
Alcides Escobar	SS	83	5	53	26	0.291	453	347	132	220.45
Rafael Furcal	SS	92	11	48	11	0.281	565	532	159	219.39
Erick Aybar	SS	72	6	66	22	0.303	396	431.5	120	213.93

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and here are the Z-Scores, comparing them ONLY to their peers at second base:

PLAYER_NAME	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	TOTAL	AVG	CAT	STD
Hanley Ramirez	1.94	1.93	1.59	0.94	2.13	8.53	89.143	R	12.303
Jimmy Rollins	1.13	0.59	0.72	0.77	-1.27	1.95	14.571	HR	7.470
Troy Tulowitzki	0.88	1.8	1.88	-0.7	0.07	3.93	69.071	RBI	13.787
Derek Jeter	1.13	0.19	-0.08	-0.04	1.53	2.73	22.643	SBI	12.220
Jose Reyes	0.31	-0.48	-1.09	2	-0.6	0.15	0.292	AVG	0.015
Stephen Drew	-0.17	0.59	0.43	-1.19	-0.2	-0.54
Asdrubal Cabrera	-0.5	-0.48	0.5	-0.37	0.53	-0.31
Elvis Andrus	-0.82	-1.15	-0.66	1.43	-0.8	-2
Alexei Ramirez	-0.82	0.33	0.21	-0.78	-0.67	-1.73
Yunel Escobar	-0.01	0.06	0.14	-1.35	0.73	-0.43
Jason Bartlett	-1.39	-0.48	-0.73	0.12	-1	-3.48
Alcides Escobar	-0.5	-1.28	-1.17	0.28	-0.07	-2.73
Rafael Furcal	0.23	-0.48	-1.53	-0.94	-0.73	-3.45
Erick Aybar	-1.39	-1.15	-0.22	-0.04	0.73	-2.07

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The Differences:

Based on ESPN’s predictions, Jimmy Rollins should be a lot higher.  I’m not sure that I agree with this, but the man contributes across the board.  Rollins, Jeter and Tulo are essentially the same person and unless you’ve got a gut feeling I’d be grabbing the cheapest of the bunch.

Elvis Andrus shouldn’t be that high based on his numbers alone.  ESPN went out on a bit of a limb predicting a return to form for Stephen Drew, but if you’re going to do that than put him where he belongs, ahead of Andrus.

Other than that, they do a fairly solid job putting their rankings together.  There’s a tonne of mediocrity after the first few tiers and there should be some terrific value if you need a shortstop late.

2010 Adjusted ESPN Second Base Rankings

Second base has long been a black-hole for fantasy owners, but the position’s grown deeper in recent years.  Unfortunately, I have very little faith in the hands-down top second baseman, Chase Utley.  One number sticks out in my mind more than anything else about Utley:  1978, Utley’s birth year.

Utley will be 31 years old for the entire 2010 season, but the steroid-era has fooled us into believing that age doesn’t matter until you’re at least in your mid-30s.

You’ll notice in the BOXPLOT to the left, a good chunk of players are bunched above the median which means pretty much after Utley and Kinsler, there’s a load of talented guys that’ll produce around the same level.

With the larger spread in the 2nd-quartile, we’re dealing with a rather large drop-off as you get to the Cabreras, Polancos and Stewarts of the world.

Tiering this up with a histogram is pretty simple. As you can see, the histogram once again shows us that it’s Utley, then Kinsler, and then the rest.  There are seven projected players between 260 and 300, so you should be able to snag a decent second basemen even if you miss out on the top-tier.

AVERAGE	CAT	STDEV
91.000	R	11.5
20.800	HR	6.53
79.467	RBI	12.61
13.800	SB	9.03
0.286	AVG	0.02

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There’s the averages for the second-basemen and here are Z-Scores:

PLAYER_NAME	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG	Total
Chase Utley	2	1.41	3.93	0.47	0.2	8
Ian Kinsler	0.78	0.8	2.98	1.68	-1.25	4.99
Brandon Phillips	-0.78	0.03	3.29	1.35	-0.55	3.34
Dustin Pedroia	1.65	-0.74	1.87	0.35	0.95	4.09
Robinson Cano	-0.09	0.49	2.9	-1.09	1.75	3.96
Brian Roberts	0.87	-1.04	1.55	1.57	0.15	3.1
Ben Zobrist	0.17	0.34	3.14	0.24	0.05	3.94
Aaron Hill	-0.17	0.64	3.29	-0.97	-0.15	2.64
Dan Uggla	0.17	1.41	3.29	-1.2	-1.55	2.13
Jose Lopez	-1.3	0.49	3.37	-1.09	-0.35	1.12
Asdrubal Cabrera	-0.7	-1.5	2.26	0.47	0.7	1.23
Ian Stewart	-0.61	0.64	2.58	-0.75	-1.3	0.56
Placido Polanco	0	-1.5	1.55	-0.97	1	0.07
Howie Kendrick	-1.57	-1.35	2.02	0.02	1.35	0.48
Rickie Weeks	-0.43	-0.12	0.04	-0.09	-0.95	-1.55

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PLAYER_NAME	POSITION	R	HR	RBI	SB	ESPNAVG	AB	A_AB	Hits	Tts
Chase Utley	2B	114	30	97	18	0.290	564	544.5	164	334.01
Ian Kinsler	2B	100	26	85	29	0.261	531	519.5	139	304.84
Brandon Phillips	2B	82	21	89	26	0.275	574	553	158	287.97
Dustin Pedroia	2B	110	16	71	17	0.305	569	564	174	286.99
Robinson Cano	2B	90	24	84	4	0.321	570	564.5	183	283.94
Brian Roberts	2B	101	14	67	28	0.289	579	565	167	283.64
Ben Zobrist	2B	93	23	87	16	0.287	436	442	125	273.28
Aaron Hill	2B	89	25	89	5	0.283	554	547	157	268.19
Dan Uggla	2B	93	30	89	3	0.255	555	533	142	264.37
Jose Lopez	2B	76	24	90	4	0.279	593	573	165	256.14
Asdrubal Cabrera	2B	83	11	76	18	0.300	475	470.5	142	243.84
Ian Stewart	2B	84	25	80	7	0.260	447	430.5	116	238.84
Placido Polanco	2B	91	11	67	5	0.306	552	550.5	169	234.14
Howie Kendrick	2B	73	12	73	14	0.313	448	427	140	230.55
Rickie Weeks	2B	86	20	48	13	0.267	408	347.5	109	215.11

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The Differences:

Robbie Cano and Brandon Phillips are essentially switched around in this model.  Once again, I’m completely puzzled how a .320 projected average tops a .275 average with 21 extra stolen bases.  The runs, home runs and rbi are almost identical yet Brandon Phillips ranks three spots behind Cano.

If you draft Cano as a MI, you’ve really got to stretch to find stolen bases elsewhere.  Looking at the top few tiers of second basemen, you’re almost guaranteed 20SB.

2010 Adjusted ESPN First Base Rankings

First base always seems to be deep and this year is no different. There’s a handful of elite first-basemen with very few questions and the position’s about 14 players deep before questions start popping up.

The only problems you’ll run into with first basemen is getting enough of them before they start falling off the board into UTIL spots across your league.

The Box-Plot to the left contains a total of 27 first basemen, all of whom exceed the minimum required for a beneficial UTIL-spot.

You’re almost guaranteed to get 30HR out of your first basemen and should be planning a contingency plan if you’re drafting a light-hitting first-basemen like James Loney.

As ESPN refuses to allow us access to their H/AB and rather just throws us a bone with AVG, we have to use CHONE’s AB guestimates.

Presented below are the standardized total points (Tts) and as you can see, the difference between Pujols’ and Howard’s batting average is large, but almost eliminated by Howard’s impressive HR and RBI totals.

PLAYER_NAME	R	HR	RBI	SB	ESPN_AVG	Tts
Albert Pujols	114	43	122	11	0.34	393.86
Ryan Howard	104	47	145	5	0.27	365.91
Prince Fielder	100	45	127	2	0.29	351.05
Mark Teixeira	104	38	125	2	0.3	341.34
Miguel Cabrera	106	32	102	3	0.31	324.83
Adrian Gonzalez	96	41	106	0	0.28	315.53
Mark Reynolds	96	38	102	18	0.25	312.04
Kevin Youkilis	97	28	102	5	0.31	299.31
Justin Morneau	88	33	111	0	0.28	288.99
Joey Votto	85	31	92	7	0.3	286.08
Derrek Lee	96	27	102	2	0.3	283.86
Billy Butler	90	29	99	1	0.3	283.28
Kendry Morales	88	30	101	3	0.3	282.07
Carlos Pena	90	39	103	1	0.24	275.13
Adam Dunn	83	38	100	2	0.24	271.02
Chris Davis	77	35	97	2	0.27	266.73
Lance Berkman	88	26	91	7	0.28	265.9
Pablo Sandoval	85	24	88	3	0.32	265.2
Michael Cuddyer	84	24	86	6	0.27	251.75
Adam LaRoche	72	28	88	1	0.27	245.78
Victor Martinez	86	18	93	0	0.29	244.83
Jorge Cantu	72	21	93	4	0.28	239.4
James Loney	69	17	85	5	0.3	237.16
Carlos Delgado	76	25	94	2	0.26	233.12
Paul Konerko	71	28	81	1	0.26	232.17
Nick Swisher	87	27	78	1	0.24	231.11
Garrett Jones	71	21	78	7	0.26	224.2
Todd Helton	75	13	75	0	0.31	216.87

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As you can see in the Histogram to the right, there’s one or two players in each tier after 300pts.  At 300pts, it becomes a complete and total crap-shoot.  If you care to compete, you absolutely need to get a first baseman no later than this tier.

Kevin Youkilis, Justin Morneau, Joey Votto, Derrek Lee, Billy Butler, Kendry Morales, Carlos Pena and Adam Dunn are all very capable starters at first base.

The Differences:

In the ESPN Rankings, Ryan Howard is the fifth overall first basemen despite crazy projections.  It’s become fairly clear that ESPN over-values batting average and what a .270 Batting Average means in the overall scheme of things.

Assuming we have 9 positions with 600 AB each, the difference between Howard’s .270 average and Mark Teixeira’s .300 Average is about 20 Hits over the course of 600 AB.  With Ryan Howard as your first baseman on a team that hits .300 — You end up with a .2965 or almost a .297 Average.  With Teixiera on a .300 Hitting team, you end up with .300 obviously.  Whether or not you think 3pts in BA is equal to 9HR and 20 RBI is up to you…

Pablo Sandoval also takes a huge hit for the opposite reason.  In order to take advantage of Sandoval’s .323 Projected Average, you’ll have to live with the San Francisco Giants inept offense.  Sandoval’s ability to play third definitely helps his overall value, but in the first base rankings, he’s just too high.  I find it hard to believe that he hit line-drives less than 20% of the time, considering that he wasn’t smash-killing homers.

Teams made it abundantly clear that they have absolutely no problem pitching Sandoval outside the zone by throwing 60 percent of pitches off the plate.  Teams will continue to pitch Sandoval way out there until Sandoval actually stops swinging at ‘em:  Sandoval’s 41.5% swing rate on pitches outside of the zone is 16% higher than average and trails only Bengie Molina in the overall standings.   It’ll come down to whether or not you think Sandoval has the type of plate coverage to back it up.  I’m not sure if I throw Sandoval into the Guerrero/Suzuki realm of plate coverage at this point…

He did show the ability to take a walk last year, which is a good sign when you’re 2008 BB% was not even 3%.  In a nutshell, Sandoval absolutely kills the fastball-changeup combination.  Last year, he improved dramatically against the old uncle charlie, but that was more than likely statistical error in 2008– the kid can hit, but just how far he’ll chase pitches off the plate remains to be seen.  At this point, there’s just no reason to throw him anything even remotely close to the strike-zone.

Here are the averages and standard deviations from Pujols to Helton:

AVERAGE	CAT	STD_DEV
87.5	R	11.99
30.21	HR	8.66
98.79	RBI	16.05
3.61	SB	3.9
0.28	AVG	0.02

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With the Z-Scores, or standard deviations away from the mean, for just first basemen.   This is a great reference point for how much a first basemen will hurt vs. help you in any given category –  We’re assuming everyone get’s the same number of AB in this chart, which is different from the overall rankings which uses projections for AB.

PLAYER_NAME	Z-Score-R	Z-Score-HR	Z-Score-RBI	Z-Score-SB	Z-Score-AVG	Total
Albert Pujols	2.23	1.48	1.45	1.89	2.85	9.89
Ryan Howard	1.39	1.94	2.88	0.36	-0.6	5.96
Prince Fielder	1.05	1.71	1.76	-0.41	0.6	4.7
Mark Teixeira	1.39	0.9	1.63	-0.41	0.95	4.46
Miguel Cabrera	1.55	0.21	0.2	-0.16	1.6	3.4
Adrian Gonzalez	0.71	1.25	0.45	-0.93	0.2	1.68
Mark Reynolds	0.71	0.9	0.2	3.69	-1.6	3.9
Kevin Youkilis	0.8	-0.26	0.2	0.36	1.3	2.4
Justin Morneau	0.04	0.32	0.76	-0.93	-0.1	0.1
Joey Votto	-0.21	0.09	-0.42	0.87	1.15	1.48
Derrek Lee	0.71	-0.37	0.2	-0.41	0.75	0.88
Billy Butler	0.21	-0.14	0.01	-0.67	0.95	0.36
Kendry Morales	0.04	-0.02	0.14	-0.16	1.05	1.05
Carlos Pena	0.21	1.02	0.26	-0.67	-1.9	-1.08
Adam Dunn	-0.38	0.9	0.08	-0.41	-1.85	-1.67
Chris Davis	-0.88	0.55	-0.11	-0.41	-0.75	-1.6
Lance Berkman	0.04	-0.49	-0.49	0.87	-0.1	-0.16
Pablo Sandoval	-0.21	-0.72	-0.67	-0.16	2.15	0.39
Michael Cuddyer	-0.29	-0.72	-0.8	0.61	-0.45	-1.65
Adam LaRoche	-1.3	-0.26	-0.67	-0.67	-0.3	-3.2
Victor Martinez	-0.13	-1.41	-0.36	-0.93	0.5	-2.32
Jorge Cantu	-1.3	-1.06	-0.36	0.1	0	-2.63
James Loney	-1.55	-1.53	-0.86	0.36	1.1	-2.48
Carlos Delgado	-0.97	-0.6	-0.3	-0.41	-0.95	-3.23
Paul Konerko	-1.39	-0.26	-1.11	-0.67	-0.9	-4.32
Nick Swisher	-0.04	-0.37	-1.3	-0.67	-1.9	-4.28
Garrett Jones	-1.39	-1.06	-1.3	0.87	-0.8	-3.68
Todd Helton	-1.05	-1.99	-1.48	-0.93	1.45	-4

ESPN Player Universe: Depth, Averages and Visualization

The staff at ESPN generally puts together a solid ratings set, but because they only give us batting average rather than hits and at-bats; it’s hard to gauge the actual batting average value.

I ended up using the ESPN rankings along with the AB that CHONE projects to come up with a value for each batting average category.  Ie.  ESPN-HITS = CHONE-AB x ESPN-Batting-Average.  Same thing went for ERA and WHIP on the pitcher’s side of things.

Each of the 12 teams had a catcher, first basemen, second basemen, shortstop, third basemen, three outfielders, a UTIL spot, and a bench spot on offense.  For the UTIL and BENCH spots, the *Best* players were used.  On the pitching side of things, the roster was 2xSP, 2xRP and 3xP plus 3 more bench spots.  It worked out like 7 SP and 3 RP.  I think this is a fair guestimation of the average roster in an active league.

If you don’t know how to read a boxplot, let me take it from the top.  Each position has it’s own graph, as you can see at the bottom.  In the center, there’s the reference plot containing all of the potential players used in our fantasy universe.

The boxes in the center of the graphs are split up into 3 distinct sections.  The line in the middle represents the average or mean.  Of all the usable first basemen and this includes an extra 15 players that would be optimally used in a UTIL or BENCH role, the average score you’ll get is 281 Points.

Both above and below the median are two boxes of various sizes.  They represent 25% of the population above and below the median, respectively.  So the entire box combined, obviously represents 50% of the usable first base population.

The lines ranging up from the boxes have markers at the top and bottom.  These markers represent the most and fewest points a position will give you (according to espn.)  In certain graphs, there are circles above the graphs that represent values that are outliers.  In terms of fantasy, we love outliers because they don’t fit with the normal distribution because they’re that damn good.

Ryan Braun is that much better than the outfielders and Tim Lincecum is that much better than the SP.  Albert Pujols, well, he’s a God.

About 25 percent of the population fall between the top of the box and the market at the top (and the same for the bottom.)

Hopefully this helps you visualize player distribution.

The Fantasy Baseball Perfect Point System: Pitchers

Yesterday, we cycled through the hitters on our way to creating the perfect point system.  Everything worked out dandy, so it’s onto the pitchers today.

A Quick Note: these rankings do not take into account scarcity, which we’ll get into when I rank the players.  Simply applying the formula by itself to rank players will give you the best players, but you’ll end up with 10 SP and no RP.

Wins:

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	16.4	17.6	17.3	16.5	17.2
TOP-5	18.6	20.4	19.2	18	20.4
MAX	19	22	20	19	22

This is probably the easiest to predict because it remains pretty static from year to year.

Weighted Average: 19.2 Wins

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE WIN:  5.21

Strike-Outs:

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	211.7	197.5	199.65	191.3	195.1
TOP-5	247	224.4	230.6	219.4	217.2
MAX	269	265	240	245	238

Weighted Average: 233

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE STRIKE-OUT:  0.43

Saves:

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	36.1	35.4	36.5	35.5	38.55
TOP-5	44	46	43.6	42.4	44.6
MAX	48	62	47	47	47

Weighted Average: 44.2

Small Adjustment for K-Rod’s ridiculous 2008 season.

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE SV:  2.23

IP:

This is where we end up with a bit of a head-ache, at least in terms of explaining it.  IP is used in both WHIP and ERA, and will be split up like this, although it doesn’t really matter.

One Inning Pitched when calculating WHIP = 0.95

One Inning Pitched when calculating ERA = 0.90

One Inning Pitched is worth 1.85

Walks and Hits:

Now we have to start penalizing the things we don’t like.  Walks and Hits are equal when it comes to WHIP in Roto & H2H; so they’re equal here too.

One Walk or Hit is Worth: NEGATIVE 0.5

Earned Runs:

Earned runs follow the same pattern as WHIP and show just how dominant Zach Greinke’s was in the 2009 season.  Not only did he have a 2.16 ERA, but he did it over 230 IP.  It’s almost exactly on par with Roger Clemens’ 1.87 ERA over 211 IP in 2005.

One Earned Run  is Worth: NEGATIVE 1.5

2005 Perfect Pitcher Results

2006 Perfect Pitcher Results

2007 Perfect Pitcher Results

2008 Perfect Pitcher Results

2009 Perfect Pitcher Results

The Fantasy Baseball Perfect Point System

Pitching System Available Here

Personally, I love playing fantasy baseball with a point system. It allows you to tailor your fantasy game to just about any taste. Head-to-Head and Rotisserie leagues bind you to a static value on any category that’s added, which isn’t optimal in most cases. If you want to place a negative value on a strike-out, but don’t want to make it equal to a category like HRs or SB, you’re pretty stuck — Unless of course, you embrace the point system!

Points system’s allow me to rank and compare players quite a bit easier as well. So, before I start spitting out rankings, I’ll share with you the method behind the madness. We’ll start with the hitters and get to the pitchers tomorrow or the next day.

The first problem with a points system is variance in any given year. Jacoby Ellsbury had 70 SB in 2009, but Jose Reyes had 78 SB two years earlier. Albert Pujols ended up hitting 47 HR last year, but Ryan Howard bested that mark by 11 in 2006. So how do we deal with this?

First, we have to admit that there’s no way to perfectly assign each category a static 100% value in a points system. This isn’t something we want to do anyways because very rarely are the accomplishments equal. If someone leads the league and sets records with 90 SB that should be worth more than someone that leads the league with a paltry 48 HR.

Using the Top-10 and Top-5 League Leaders (final quartile of usable fantasy players) from the previous five years, we’ll create an average for each year, with which we’ll create a weighted average. We’ll give the greatest importance to the most recent sets of data and descend from there. We’ll then normalize that to a hundred points for ease of use(feel free to use base ten multipliers if you don’t like decimal points).

Then we pray. We pray hard. We pray that the Maximum value attained over the previous five years doesn’t fall outside 30% of our hundred points. Thankfully, as much as stolen bases, homeruns and batting average varies — we’re good to go.

Stolen Bases:

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	44.5	46.7	49.5	50.3	48
TOP-5	55	53	58.6	56.6	56.8
MAX	70	68	78	65	62

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Weighted Average: 55.6 SB

Small 2007 Jose Reyes Adjustment.

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE STOLEN BASE:  1.75

Home Runs

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	41	37.5	41.1	46.2	44
TOP-5	44.4	39.4	47.4	50.4	47.4
MAX	47	48	54	58	51

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Weighted Average: 44.9 HR

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE HOME RUN  2.23

Runs Batted In:

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	121.8	123.4	129.1	130.2	128.9
TOP-5	131.6	131.2	138.6	137.8	138.8
MAX	141	146	156	149	148

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Weighted Average: 134.3

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE RBI  0.75

Runs Scored:

	2009	2008	2007	2006	2005
TOP-10	111.7	114.6	124.2	123.5	118.5
TOP-5	115.6	117.6	130.4	128.2	122.8
MAX	124	125	143	134	129

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Weighted Average: 120.9

TOTAL POINTS FOR ONE RUNS SCORED  0.83

Batting Average

This one’s by far the toughest to get through, but here goes –

An At-Bat is worth NEGATIVE 0.16

A HIT is worth 0.962

or, a hit is worth roughly 6 times as much as an AB.

That’ll give us a Maximum of 120 (Ichiro in 2007) and a minimum of 100 (Dustin Pedroia in 2008).

For Data From The Previous 4 Years

2009 Data Using Point System

2008 Data Using Point System

2007 Data Using Point System

2006 Data Using Point System

2005 Data Using Point System

Welcome Back!

Mase, everyone’s favourite Diddy side-kick, set forth an epic career path that I decided to follow. At the top of my game, with bills-o-plenty in my wallet, I stepped aside to become a preacher-man. Now, I’m back with my kick-ass musings on the game, the fantasy baseball game.

Unfortunately, this career path ends with everyone ignoring me because the game’s gone-done changed. You used to be able to throw together some sleeper candidates based solely on a gut feeling, but now the public wants statistical proof. Everything is expected to be justified by BABIP’s and LD rates, even if they’re not pertinent.

So, with my fantasy baseball rankings just about complete, I’ve decided to welcome myself back in style.

Just like Mase…

Don’t Get It Twisted: Derrick Lee Surprises.

Derrick Lee has been on fire over the past couple weeks, literally smash-killing at every opportunity.  Lee’s seven homeruns and .415 average over the past two weeks is helping fantasy owners put together incredible playoff runs.

Derrick Lee’s 2009 season is of great importance in the fantasy world, much more important than it is in Chicago.  After the steroid era, I was unsure as to how players would age.  Playing fantasy baseball during the steroid hooplah really jades your opinions of players:  You fully expect players to produce solid numbers well into their late-30’s.  However, with banned substances on the down-low in the past year, it made sense to draft a group of players that were entering their baseball prime (27-30).

I assumed that Derrick Lee and other players born in the mid-70’s would experience a drop-off sooner than guys like Jim Thome and Gary Sheffield did.  Alas, Lee’s on his way to posting numbers reminiscent of his terrific 2005 season.

There’s almost no difference between the current version of Derrick Lee and the 2007 and 2008 versions, yet he’s up across the board in almost every statistical category.  Lee’s managed to avoid the little swing-hindering injuries this year though.  Maybe it really is just that simple.

Derrick Lee’s striking out and walking at almost the exact same percentage.  Even Lee’s BABIP is inline with historical marks.  Derrick Lee is just hitting the ball harder (.227 ISO in 2009).  Lee’s Home Runs are a result of more flyballs and a higher homerun-to-flyball ratio, but that’s more than likely the result rather than the cause of his increased power.

Lee’s seeing an equal amount of fastballs and offspeed pitches and his plate discipline numbers are scary close to his historical average, so what gives?  He’s just killing the fastball, posting a wFB/C of 2.62, the highest since his 2005 season.

That’s about it, I just had to mention Derrick Lee’s incredibly Projection System defying season. Bill James had Derrick Lee hitting the most home-runs at the start of the season, predicting 24 dingers.  Welp, through 483 AB, Derrick Lee has managed to hit 33 HR.

Ken Griffey Jr’s Swan Song

There’s been no reason to detail Junior’s troubles this year, the statistics speak for themselves.  Griffey’s hitting an excruciating .218 with a .717 OPS in limited action.  Griffey’s still got a shot at 400 AB,  but the skills are gone.

In tonight’s game against the Los Angeles Angels, a game in which Felix Hernandez and Scott Kazmir both pitched incredibly well, Ken Griffey looked old — not old by MLB Standards, but time to renew your driver’s license old.

The scenario is set, men on first and second with one out.  Griffey gets the call to pitch hit for one of the light-hitting Mariners named Wilson. Jason Bulger’s pitching, and the fun begins with the score tied at two all:

1. Hanging Slider — Griffey watches it fly by
2. 94 fastball down the heart of the plate — Griffey watches it fly by
3. Slider in the dirt — Runners advance to second and third.  Now, all Griffey needs is a deep fly…
4. Two fouls, both on sliders away
5. Finally, having only seen a single fastball, Griffey chases a slider low-and-inside.   It’s as if Griffey thought he was facing Neftali Feliz, but got Barry Zito instead.

If you cannot hit a hanging slider followed by a fastball down the heart of the plate, you’re in deep trouble.  Griffey wasn’t close.

We’re now onto extra innings, after the Mariners tried every trick in the book to throw this game away.

Striking a batter out, only to have Kenji show his ability to let balls hit the heel of his glove.

Trying to turn a double play against a runner who’s already tagged first and throwing the ball into the dugout.

A walk here, a walk there, and then finally a game saving bases loaded infield fly.

The American League Cy Young

The junior circuit is how-do-you-say, balls deep, in talent this year. I think it’s fair to say with about a month or so left, the field has been narrowed down to four, possibly five, starting pitchers.  Of those pitchers, only Jon Lester and Justin Verlander have a shot at making the playoffs.  Zack Greinke, Roy Halladay, and Felix Hernandez realistically share a one-percent shot at making the playoffs between them.

Unlike the MVP award, the Cy Young award has some flexibility when it comes to playing for a non-contending team.  In essence, it’s the awarded to the best pitcher and that pitcher thus far is none other than Mr. Zack Greinke.

However, I’d like to step outside the confines of statistical analysis at least for this article.  Much more than dominating the competition goes into being a dominant pitcher.  Obviously, there’s the old, often over-used, cliche of leading your team to the playoffs. Retired baseball players use this when calling games and we, the statistical community, often bust their nuts for doing so.  Maybe there’s something to it though, maybe…

It’s naive for the statistical community to ignore the market in which a player works.  Dealing with the pressure in a major-market like Boston, New York, Chicago or Los Angeles is a skill.  Obviously we can’t judge how Roy Halladay or Zack Greinke would react to expectations, but we also cannot ignore how certain pitchers possess an innate ability to ignore pressure situations.

Statistics also fail to capture how a pitcher contributes on off-days.   Roy Halladay of the Blue Jays hasn’t just pitched a terrific season, he’s managed to help improve Toronto’s stable of youngsters (ask AJ Burnett).  Such a skill is impossible to quantify, but the MVP race is often decided by the influence of teammates.  The symbiotic relationship shared between two batters hitting in the three and four holes is incredibly important, at least if you’d like to see pitches over the plate.

More importantly, let’s consider  the psychological impact that an ace-pitcher like Greinke or Halladay has on the rest of the team.  All of the pitchers listed in the Cy Young race are “stoppers”.  In addition to going out there are throwing seven-strong, they’re breaking four game losing streaks.  Slides and losing streaks are contagious, if you don’t agree then you’ve never stepped foot on a field (Thanks! Joe Morgan).  Once again, It’s terribly naive to believe that a starting pitcher only contributes on the mound, simply because we’re unable to quantify his psychological impact.

The voting public may rely on ridiculously rudimentary statistics like Wins, ERA, and Strikeouts but they also watch the games, and understand the impact of the players.  It would be nice if they diversified their scouting portfolio to include RAR, WHIP, xFIP, Swing% and every other available statistic, but that’s a lot to ask.

Watching a pitcher dominate goes a long way to establishing just how dominant he actually is.  Sifting through statistics is probably a fairer way of determining the best pitcher in the league, but it clearly misses a large portion of a pitchers’ make-up.

Greinke’s well ahead of the competition at this point and it’d be a shame to see him lose it, but you have to ask yourself just how effective he’d be in New York or Boston.  We’ll obviously never know, but surviving your weekly date-night shots on Page 6 cannot be easy.

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