FTW Football Edition

How Drew Rosenhaus Killed The WildCat Formation

The NFL is a league based on paradox and nowhere is it more apparent than the league’s salary structure.  The highest paid position on the field is also the target for all 11 players on defense and thus the most likely to get injured.  The National Football League along with the independent franchises understand that they will only be as successful as their franchise quarterbacks.  Thus, the creation of the franchise left-tackle and the influx of league mandated rules and fines solely focused on protecting the passer.

The paradox was most conspicuous in Michael Vick’s 10-year, 130 Million dollar contract.  A contract that still stands as the 14th largest sports contract of all-time, making his current 2-year endeavor with the Eagles look like chump-change.  Michael Vick’s value as a pocket passer was not that of Peyton Manning or Tom Brady, but his freakish athleticism allowed him to transcend the quarterback position.  Once Falcons’ Owner, Arthur Blank, signed that gigantic paycheck, Michael Vick became more than a quarterback, Michael Vick was a long-term investment.

Follow this if you can, Michael Vick was paid because he ran, but because he was paid, he was no longer permitted to run.  Vince Young is an identical case:  The Titans drafted an athletic quarterback, but the size of the investment required a fundamental change in his quarterbacking philosophy which lead to his epic downward spiral.

It’s assumed that athletic quarterbacks succeed at the collegiate level due to the lack of team defensive speed which is only moderately true.  The truth is, Division-One colleges have very little financially invested into the future of their athletic quarterbacks and in most cases, only have the kids for 2-years worth of football.  A devastating injury to Michael Vick would cost Virginia Tech their shot at the National Championship in any given year. Conversely, a devastating injury to Michael Vick would cost the Falcons millions of dollars and put them in salary cap hell for years to come.

This is why Drew Rosenhaus will kill the Wildcat.

ESPN is currently filled with analysts that claim that we’ve already entered the Wildcat 2.0 era.  Jason Smith has already proclaimed Tim Tebow the Baby Jesus of the Wildcat 3.0. The current incarnation of the Wildcat — a mediocre passer such as Ronnie Brown — has already been figured out by the defensive gurus behind the Patriots and Ravens (Blitz the house).  A switch to second-round talent like Pat White, or the aforementioned Michael Vick, isn’t the rebirth of the wildcat, and it definitely isn’t Wildcat 2.0.  Two events will spell the emergence of Wildcat 2.0 and neither of them has anything to do with the signal caller’s ability to throw the ball.

The first event will occur when Chad Pennington, or any other Quarterback gets roughed up in press-coverage.  The recently instated rules regarding quarterbacks do not cover quarterbacks split wide, they cover “the passer”.  The trickery loses it’s effect when your starting quarterback is out with a concussion.

The first round of salary negotiations will spell the end of the Wildcat, however. The Miami Dolphins took Wildcat 2.0 poster boy, Pat White, with their second round draft selection.  It’s by no means a terrible selection as Pat White’s fall-back plan is as a competent wide-receiver, but the second round is filled with numerous players that can immediately contribute.  An optimistic estimate of Pat White’s role in the offense would be 40 to 50 percent of the offensive snaps.  This isn’t a problem, unless Pat White’s role increases along with his effectiveness.  Assuming Pat White, or Michael Vick for that matter, revolutionizes offenses in the NFL for two seasons, what then?

The obvious answer would be for teams to let their Wildcat free-agents walk while reloading their offense with more cheap athletic talent from the draft.  If the Wildcat is successful though, the pool of cheap talent in the draft will drastically decline.  This is a pipe-dream though, the reality is that local fanbases will demand the return of such a key cog in their offense.  Suddenly, Pat White is no longer making second round money and you’ve got two “Quarterbacks” plus quite possibly a third, making Quarterback money.

Suddenly you’ve got owners writing super-sized cheques that come with super-sized responsibility:  It’s the Michael Vick example all over again. Pat White and Michael Vick aren’t built to sustain a pounding on a daily basis and the Wildcat offense doesn’t change this.  Wildcat quarterbacks should assume a role similar to that of a third down scat-back and should be paid accordingly. It’s wonderful to watch Norwood, Sproles and Jamaal Charles rack up yardage in reduced roles, however they’ll never be used or paid like a feature back due to their injury risk.  Unfortunately the media-hype surrounding the Wildcat formation will assure that Wildcat quarterbacks are overvalued and overpaid.

Ineffectiveness won’t kill the Wildcat in the NFL, requiring an extra defender or two to account for the quarterback will always be effective.  It’ll be Drew Rosenhaus and the salary cap that’ll end the Wildcat — not with a Bang but with a whimper.

note: I haven’t the fondest clue as to who will represent these players, and just enjoy using Rosenhaus as a scapegoat because I hate successful people.  Anyone that can snap their fingers and suddenly be snorting cocaine off of a host of cheerleaders’ tits while Terrell Owens and Chad Ocho Cinco just sit around waiting to give him a high-five after line, really sucks in my book.

Darwin Had It Right: A Mini Football Essay for 2009.

The schizophrenic market of the NFL casts free agency and the salary cap against each other to form a league of parody and profit — market intervention at it’s finest.  Everybody wins yet alternative revenue streams provide adequate incentive for teams to strive for success rather than mediocrity.  The NFL Draft levels the playing field further as entrants are often well seasoned college veterans — as mandated by the league office –  capable of contributing immediately.

With parody abroad, strategic maneuvering on the field, at the draft table, or in the general manager’s office can transform a loser into a winner almost instantaneously.   Dynasties result from feats of genius rather than depth of pocketbooks, reinforcing the American belief that if you work hard, you’ll succeed.

It’s survival of the fittest, at it’s finest: 32 NFL teams all governed by the same rules.  Each subsequent adaptation, whether in game, in season, or during the off-season effects a teams chance of survival.  Winning strategies are adopted by the league, while losing strategies and players for that matter, fall by the wayside.  As we’ve seen though, what’s good for the goose isn’t always good for the gander.

Logically, the conditions for success are not always strictly congruent. While the budgetary constraints are identical, the environment obviously varies with the American landscape.  Eight of a teams’ sixteen games are played at home, along with four others played against division foes consisting of teams based in the same region of the country.

Domes and their artificial climates aside, teams must adapt their style of play to their playing environment.  An adapted scheme, combined with the correct athletes, will win more often than it loses and often gain a playoff birth.  A team adapted to perfect weather will occasionally be forced into an uncomfortable environment in the playoffs, and thus the old NFL adage of building a team that travels: In essence, a team that runs the ball and plays defense.

The most populous and arguably best adapted, yet least specialized, mammal outside of the human species is the basic rat.  It’s capable of flourishing in every imaginable environment, whether freezing cold or scorching hot.  It’s main advantage is it’s simplicity, just like a running game;  It succeeds regardless of rain, wind, snow or 110 degree heat.  The rat could be more specialized, but it wouldn’t succeed in as many situations or climates.

Take college football and their almost exclusively regional schedule combined with their advantage of only playing out of conference games that they approve and schedule.  This breeds gazelles rather than rats, or Gators if you will.  The SEC has repeatedly obliterated their Big-10 adversaries with superior speed at every position.  In the entire 2008 season, the Florida Gators had to travel as far north as Tennessee.  Additionally, for both historical, financial and logistical reasons, the NCAA championship is rotated between climates that benefit speed.

Obviously, you’d expect teams best suited to the National Championship environment to flourish while teams adapted to multiple climates to lose.  What exactly would happen if the National Championship was played in Madison, WI. rather than in California, Miami, or Arizona is debatable.  It’s a simple principle: If an adapted team doesn’t have to leave it’s home-climate to get to the championship and the championship is also played in favorable conditions, it will succeed.

In the NFL, we’ve seen adaptation and subsequent success by many teams lately.  Kurt Warner has lead both the Cardinals and the Rams, two highly specialized teams, to the Superbowl.  In 2008, the Cardinals were defeated handily both times they visited the East Coast late in the season, yet still reached the Superbowl behind a playoff run with games in Atlanta, Carolina, Arizona and the Superbowl in Tampa (all favourable climates).

The Pittsburgh Steelers, eventual Superbowl Champions, gradually increased the skill of their passing game through the draft while maintaining a stout defense and impact ground game.  The Superbowl itself was closer than it ever should have been, but even the Arizona Cardinals — a perfectly adapted warm-weather team – will lose to superior talent.

Of course, there’s always an exception to the rule and Bill Belichick, the mad genius himself, provides this exception.  The New England Patriots possess a skilled defense that’s well adapted to the chilly New England environment, but the offense seems groomed for southern success until you delve deeper into the effects that acclimate weather has on a franchise.

The offensive line, while not spectacular, provides ample pass protection against larger opponents in even the worst weather.  A combination of continuity, stamina and agility works for the offensive line in colder weather and lackluster footing.  The receiving corps, and more importantly the entire passing game, is based on the strong armed Brady getting the ball underneath to Kevin Faulk and Wes Welker.  In poor conditions, the offense will always have the advantage if it is predicated on agility rather than track-speed.  The offensive player will always know where he’s cutting to, giving him ample time to plant and re-direct; whereas the defender must react, placing him at a severe disadvantage.

It’s difficult to understand how a Belichick’s mixture of West Coast and Spread offense is adapted colder weather until you consider the cold weather innovations in the NFL.  The epigram,  a running team is a team that travels, dates back well before the invention of field-turf, underarmor, Tom Brady’s famous glove, or even multiple footballs.  The maxim itself may even be outdated, in terms of temperature and precipitation anyways.  Wind is, and always will be a factor, and thus the importance of a strong-armed quarterback leading a short passing game.

The New England defense, like many of the other cold weather defenses, relies essentially on the defensive equivalent of the short pass.  The multiple blitz is successful because receivers have issues getting off the snap and the ball hangs up in the wind longer, allowing everyone to close in on.  While effectiveness is lost in perfect playing conditions, an attacking defense travels south far better than a basic defense travels north.  Unfortunately, teams like Chicago and Green Bay face the sad fact that they’ll face perfect conditions in both Minnesota and Detroit, therefore restricting the aggressiveness of both personnel and scheme.

Superior talent at most positions will always win a ball-game, but draft day blunders and free-agent contracts will almost always force you to field a specialized team.  It’s no longer an option to simply field the best team, although it is possible to have a competitive advantage through superior coaching and free agent frugality.

The question for NFL franchises, particularly the ones in the North, is whether or not winning your division is enough.  Teams such as Indianapolis, Miami and Arizona, will only go as far as their home-field advantage takes them.  Teams like Baltimore, Philadelphia and even New England will be exposed when playing extremely specialized warm-weather teams in perfect conditions.

Of course, in the end, great teams will always defeat lesser teams.  Every year however, there may only be one, or possibly two truly great teams and even they can be beaten given the right combination of scheme and weather.

Can Jason Campbell Step Up?

In 2008, the Washington Redskins were the epitome of mediocre after finishing a forgettable season just eight and eight.  The defense was a bright spot, finishing top-10 in most yardage and scoring categories but failed to produce a significant amount of game changing plays. The dominant Redskin’s defense was simply vanilla, finishing tied for fourth and eight last in sacks and interceptions, respectively.

The scheme’s still in place, but Daniel Snyder’s extensive pocketbook and the acquisition of hybrid LB/DE and Bronco Nagurski winner, Brian Orakpo, has the ship pointed in the right direction. Already a stout crew, the addition of Haynesworth and Orakpo should provide infinitely more interior and exterior penetration.  Double teams encountered by Haynesworth should free up the agile Andre Carter on the edge.

Hard hitting safeties, LaRon Landry and Chris Horton occupy the middle of the field and should both see their turnover numbers increase. DeAngelo Hall and Fred Smoot are capable man-coverage guys that can both play on an island if required.  Carlos Rogers is a bigger, physical, cornerback that should match-up nicely against the largest receivers in the NFC East.

Unlike previous years, the Washington Redskins come into 2009 with a defense that’ll do more than keep them in the game;  It’s capable of winning the game too.  They’ve entered into elite territory normally reserved for the Steelers, Ravens and Bears of the world.

The question thus becomes, can Jason Campbell steer the ship in the right direction?

Campbell’s made small stride’s under second-year head coach and former Seahawk’s quarterback, Jim Zorn.  Campbell’s now entering his fifth year in the league, and his fourth with considerable snaps, so if the Redskin’s courtship of Jay Cutler didn’t clue you in — it’s definitely Campbell’s make-or-break year.

The ‘Skins have relied on a run-heavy attack featuring Clinton Portis and Ledell Betts to ease Jason Campbell into the league, gradually increasing his responsibility.  In 2009, Campbell has all of the tools around him to succeed.  While Devin Thomas hasn’t matured as expected, Malcolm Kelly has provided much needed competition for Antwaan Randel El at the WR2 spot, opposite Santana Moss.

The weapons are at Campbell’s disposal, but can he make use of them?

Fred Davis, a former USC standout, and Chris Cooley could prove to be the cornerstones of this offense.  Cooley and Davis should provide useful targets underneath for the accurate Campbell and with the proper rapport should allow Campbell to have faith in his progressions.

Jason Campbell isn’t going to be asked to win many games with his arm alone, which is good news for the Hogs.  However, Campbell’s certainly capable of leading a long deliberate drive at this point in his career, even if the two-minute offense will still sputter from time to time.  The Redskins have put the required talent on the field for Campbell to succeed, and it’s now just a matter of play calling.

A healthy Portis and an aggressive running game should go a long way to keep Campbell in rhythm.  He has the arm to stretch the field, but the touch isn’t quite there yet.  A healthy diet of short, quick passes should set up the running game and the deep game to Santana Moss.

The Redskins have an outside shot at the Superbowl, but more importantly the depth to make a serious playoff run even while sustaining multiple injuries on either side of the ball.  At 34-to-1, the Washington Redskins’ Superbowl odds are deliciously tempting.

Other teams are better, but I like the ‘Skins chances with Campbell at the helm.

Broad Spectrum Adrian Peterson

It’s early afternoon which means one thing:  NFL Replay.  The Cowboys are hosting the Titans in Cash-Money Cathedral’s debut while Joe Buck and Troy Aikman serenade me with their poignant musings.

Fantasy football’s also here, and people are losing their shit over just about every pick.  Adrian Peterson’s apparently the consensus number one pick, but he’s nowhere near a can’t-miss.

The questions around Peterson, even at OU, have always centered around his upright running style. The same 6′1″ / 220lb frame that blesses Peterson with his tremendous combination of power and speed also lends itself to a multitude of injuries.

Stalwarts Steve Hutchinson and Bryant McKinnie still combine to form the best left-side in the league, but the rest of the line’s in flux.  Matt Birk’s found his way to Baltimore, and the Vikings are bankin’ John Sullivan stepping up — Things look good so far.  Phil Loadholt, the Vikings 2nd rounder out of OU, and Anthony Herrera are both big, powerful, linemen that should open up some holes.   Ryan Cook who lost his spot to Loadholt is still a very serviceable backup that should be able to slide into either of the tackle spots, or possibly even push Loadholt to guard, in the case of an injury.

Favre should, by all expectations, improve the passing game.  The tight ends, particularly Dr. Cock and Balls, will be very important both in-line and running routes.  The Vikings receivers are a different story, they’re all fairly one-dimensional which isn’t bad per se, but Brad Childress will have to get creative.

I mention all of this because the Purple Jesus’ success isn’t in his hands.  The injury bug may strike, but the alternatives in Michael Turner and MJD possess similar risks.  Turner was handed the ball early and often last year, and while MJD’s frame is the polar opposite of Peterson’s,  both pose risks.  One of these three backs are going to get injured, and it’s probably going to be a coin flip.

The Vikings are going to have to take a lead into the second half for Peterson to rack up the fantasy points.  How the offensive line comes together to protect Brett Favre, should be the key.  While untested, the right-side on paper should open up plenty of running lanes but their agility’s in question.  Thankfully the Vikings have a fairly easy schedule until the Baltimore and Pittsburgh games in week six and seven.

The defense has always been strong, but the suspensions of Pat and Kevin Williams will hurt. Again, the schedule’s easy enough over the first four weeks that it shouldn’t matter.  Teams will exploit the weak interior, but shouldn’t crack the game too wide open.  If the defense can keep the Vikings in it, Peterson’s far and away the choice.  If the Vikings have to ride Brett Favre’s arm to victory, things could get ugly.

Other backs make sense, especially in PPR leagues but for the most part Peterson’s the pick.

A Philadelphia Eagles Story

It didn’t take me long to remind myself that I’m a strong, hulking, alpha male. I lifted heavy luggage for my beautiful girlfriend, sprinted back to the apartment to eat lucky charms out of tupperware, turned the television to the NFL network and all of the sudden, it’s 11PM. The tupperware’s still in the sink, and aside from a brief break to watch the Red Sox / Tigers ballgame, the television hasn’t moved from channel seventy-seven.

Now, considering that hefty schedule, you can probably understand why I’ve been thinking about the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have suffered some fairly serious injuries (here and here) but even still, the Philadelphia Eagles will be the most enjoyable franchise to watch on a weekly basis.

The Eagles are bucking the established trend of building a squad that “travels.”  It’s cold in Philadelphia, or so I hear; so you’d expect a power running team built to wear opponents down.  The Eagles instead have decided to build the kind of team that’s unbeatable in Madden: Agility’s praised at the skill positions, physicality on the lines, and aggression on defense.

The offensive line is amongst the best in the league barring injury.  Herremans and the brothers Andrews are already dinged up, but when healthy they combine with Jason Peters, Winston Justice and Jamaal Jackson to form an intimidating line that’ll definitely open up some holes.  The only question is whether or not this line will be able to move well enough to facilitate the screen-game.

McNabb is still McNabb, and there’s nothing new here.  McNabb’s still capable of rushing for first downs, but the game breaking dashes are probably history.  It’s McNabb’s targets that are interesting.

When the Eagles drafted Cal’s DeSean Jackson in the second round of last year’s draft, it was a gamble that yielded immediate dividends.  So why not add another game-breaker to compliment Jackson and White-Lightening? Thus, the 19th overall pick became Mizzou standout, Jeremy Maclin.  Reggie Brown and Jason Avant both have some talent, but more importantly have some bulk, not much, but at least some.

Finally, the Eagles have arguably the most versatile running back in Brian Westbrook and his rookie impostor, LeSean McCoy. McCoy seems to have everything required to be a Philly running back, and the expansive playbook won’t be curtailed by his entrance into the ballgame.

This is the Philadelphia Eagles’ offense.  Routes based on track-speed and agility, with Westbrook and McCoy sneaking underneath.  Any team that attempts to gain access to McNabb’s Chunky Soup will invite the screen pass.  The Screen Pass to Westbrook, to Maclin, to McCoy, to Jackson — To Celek? Probably.

As defensive backs get larger to cover tall, jump ball threats at WR, they also become less fluid.  Philadelphia’s wide-outs are going to be twisting and turning their hips, tying them into knots, while racking up the YAC.  Opposing teams are going to try and press the receivers, but Philadelphia’s line should be able to keep McNabb upright long enough for them to get open.  Neither Westbrook nor McCoy are suited to go between the tackles, but both will have success doing so.

The defensive unit is equally as exciting and will be soaring around the field, as we’ve come to expect. Normally, the departure of both your heart and your soul is a bad thing, but Brian Dawkins’ release may prove to be beneficial.  Dawkins was starting to exhibit the signs of old-age, and the trio of Quintin Mikell, Quintin Demps and Sean Jones should provide some interesting options. Sean Jones has always been a favorite of mine since his days as a Georgia Bulldog, and his skill-set is a perfect fit for an aggressive Eagles defense.

Philly’s corners are the best in the business, given the scheme they play in.  The linebacking crew without Bradley is going to be in for a long season.  If Bunkley and Patterson continue to mature they’ll provide a solid push up the middle with sack-specialist, Trent Cole, taking the high-road upfield; All of which should lighten the load on the linebacking corps. Chris Gocong, who was repeatedly drafted in the top-10 in EA Sports’ colossal failure “NFL HEAD COACH,” will occupy the strong side linebacker with Jordan and Gaither fighting for the weak-side spot.  God only knows who will fill Bradley’s MLB position, but a warm body will do.

Everything will depend on the two defensive tackles and their progression as hard-nosed football players.  If opponents attempt to exploit any particular level of this defense, the remedy will certainly entail more blitzing.

I’m not saying the Eagles will win the Superbowl, or even the NFC East, but they’ll definitely be the most enjoyable to watch.  If opponents thought the Eagles used the screen to set up the intermediate-to-deep pass last year, just wait until September.

Edit: It appears as though Michael Vick has signed with the Eagles.  Hopefully, with everything I’ve previous stated, you can see the infinite possibilities at Andy Reid’s disposal.  With Donovan McNabb, Mike Vick, Jeremy Maclin, Brian Westbrook, DeSean Jackson, and Kevin Curtis all running around like wild-men, there is little doubt that the Eagles will be the most exciting team in the league.

Before the Vick signing, I figured the Vikings with Percy Harvin could compete with the Eagles for excitement, but now it’s not even close.

House Keeping? Some Football Stuff.

I’m going to start diving into some fantasy football and just football in general, here and there.  Unlike baseball, for most statistics there are nowhere near enough instances of an event to draw even a half-assed conclusion.  Fantasy football is, and always will be, about match-ups.   I still delve deeply into the statistical realm, but this should allow me a bit more creative freedom to voice my opinion via profanity laden rants.

This is the housekeeping post — it shall occupy it’s place in the universe until something else springs up.