Topps

Chad Jenkins: Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP85, Chad Jenkins of the Toronto Blue Jays, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Probably Sitting on It

Projected Value: Medium-

As someone who attends most of the Blue Jays’ games, I didn’t mind this selection.  All things considered, this was probably a great pick for the Blue Jays.

Jenkins appears to have put it together through dedication and a bulldog mentality.  Jenkins is built like a horse, and was one of the better college pitchers entering the draft.

Jenkins isn’t a front-line starter, but he’s built to eat up innings with the best of ‘em.  Even if Jenkins performs to his ceiling — an innings eater that can dance around the corners with solid sinkin’ heat and throw a potentially plus slider — his value in Toronto isn’t all that great.

The Jays have had solid luck with their pitchers lately, but injuries have been a problem.  If Jenkins picks up the cutter, as just about every Jays’ pitcher has, his ceiling could get a nice little bump.

I don’t think you can get fair market value for this card if you’re selling it out of the gate.  I also won’t be rushing out to buy a tonne of low-numbered refractors.

Think about it, how well will a solid number 2 in Toronto appreciate anyways?

Jenkins is a potential trade-chip though as he advanced through the Minors.  Players with Jenkins build and stuff often find themselves as a very useful commodity.  If anyone in the Jays farm system would benefit from a sit down with Roy Halladay before he’s shipped off, it’s Jenkins.

Obviously, if Jenkins autographs dip to amongst the lowest in the class, I’ll be grabbing more than a couple.  He’s still a first rounder so I don’t exactly expect that to happen for at least a  month or two after the release date.

The Jays farm system isn’t pretty, so you may be able to make a quick buck when Jenkins makes the list.

Zack Wheeler: Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects, BDPP86

BDPP86, Zack Wheeler of the San Francisco Giants, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Buying

Projected Value: Great

This year’s Bowman’s absolutely loaded with pitching — High School Pitching, to be exact.

If you haven’t had the pleasure of losing a bunch of money, let me paraphrase the first rule of prospecting for you:

HIGHLY TOUTED HIGH SCHOOL PITCHERS ARE A GREAT WAY TO GO BROKE

Pitchers, in general, are much harder to project than hitters and tend to flame out at a much larger rate.  The key, obviously, is to know when to buy and when to sell. You can make a lot of money on a quad-A player and lose a lot of money on a perennial all-star, all due to timing.

With Baseball America’s lists dropping like bombs up on these bitches, now’s probably not the optimal time to buy.   Realistically, your best shot of purchasing a Wheeler card is during a bumpy dead-arm period towards the end of next season, or once he’s already made the show and has pitched well, but not Tim Lincecum well.

Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander prove that even the best pitchers will have slumps where you can pick them up on the cheap.  What you have to realize more than anything, is that for every pitcher that hits the road running and continues running; there’s about 50 more that’ll sputter long enough to get a great deal.

Wheeler appears set to debut in Low-A, but considering his age and frame, rushing him through the minors would be suicide. So you’ll have time to acquire these, and you’ll have to sit on them once you do acquire them.

Wheeler has all the potential in the world to top San Francisco’s prospect list after a certain Buster Posey graduates to the next level.  Once that happens and the kid gains steam, that’s probably the time you’ll want to part with his cards.

If you’re a gambling man, you can hold them and hope that he becomes the next big thing.  Most people are happy with a 50-100% ROI rather than the 1/50 shot of a 1000+% ROI payday.

Anyways, back to Zack Wheeler.

The kid has a pitcher’s body — the kind that gives scouts wet dreams.  All of the pitches are there, but some refinement is definitely needed.

Wheeler’s probably a smidgen below Matzek in the ratings, but when you consider the parks their heading to, things get interesting.

If you’re going on sheer value to the collector alone, I think Wheeler sneaks in above Matzek even if he doesn’t top out at the same level.

Mike Trout: Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects, BDPP89

BDPP89, Mike Trout of the Anaheim Angels, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Probably Sell Based on AFL

Projected Value: Medium+ to High

It seems as though almost every prospect hails from Florida, California or Texas and that’s why I end up lovin’ kids from the North East.  Trout’s a Jersey kid with all sorts of tools at his disposal.

There are a few things about Trout that you should probably pay attention to, namely his defensive ability.  In part because his bat has so much untapped potential in it, it’ll often be overlooked.

Experts almost expect Trout’s power to develop as expected, so it’ll often be taken for granted.  So when Trout starts gaining all sorts of hype as Anaheim’s next great outfielder, the experts will be ecstatic at his ability to remain in CF.

Trout’s literally built like a brick shit-house yet remains fluid in just about every aspect.

I definitely have some interest in picking up his autographs, but — BUT — I’ll probably wait until the Arizona Rookie League Buzz dies down.

If you’re up for making a quick buck, you may want to invest in Trout’s Tristar offerings.  Baseball America doesn’t list the Anaheim prospects until January 18th and Trouts got a very solid shot of topping that list (Let’s go with 65%) which means you should be able to turn the cards for a quick buck or two.

Tyler Matzek: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP93, Tyler Matzek of the Colorado Rockies, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: This Might Blow Up (Sell..to Buy)

Projected Value: Great

I had a feeling that this might happen:  Matzek tops Baseball America’s list of Rockies Prospects.  This is kind of a bummer because the kid looked to slide by as a High+ type player, rather than a full-on superstar.

Matzek saw his value drop during draft day due to the dreaded “signability issue.”  Well, dreaded for baseball teams but terrific for people that invest cash in baseball cards.

The only question with this big lefty is his desire to be great.  Personally, I think the kid has it in ‘em to tear through the minors if Colorado lets ‘em go.  If they try and slow him down, preferring to actually teach him, rather than just usher him; Matzek might start sputtering.

The next question is Matzek’s value in Colorado.  There’s still a stigma surrounding Colorado, so you may actually get a shot to get his stuff 10% cheaper than you’d expect.

Christian Friederich ranked the number two prospect in Colorado’s system, and his red refractor sold for 76 dollars just the other week.

Matzek’s a step above Friederich, and his first Bowman Card’s going to be an autograph.  Combine that with the stir that’ll be caused by BA’s top 100 and the initial buzz of BDPP and you’ll have a card that you can sell now and probably get back in a little under a year for a better price.

Even if he starts in low-A, you’ll still have time to acquire the card before his name starts popping up in “the next big thing” conversations…

Jiovanni Mier: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP84, Jiovanni Mier of the Houston Astros, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Buying Small Quantities

Projected Value: Medium to High(-)

Mier got about slot money when the Astros drafted him 21st overall as the first prep shortstop in the draft.  Mier signed quickly enough to get some AB’s in the Appy-League.  In the Appalachian League, he displayed all of the skills that made him a first round pick.  He hit for average, walked, displayed defense range and a lil’ bit o’ pop ( 7 Doubles, 6 Triples, 7 HR in 192 AB)

Unfortunately, Baseball America has already published their Houston Astros Top-10 list — so the prices, they’re on the rise.  Mier came in as the Astros second ranked prospect and should eventually surpass Castro (IMHO).

Mier was ranked as the top position prospect in the Appy league, but I’m taking it with a grain of salt.

Taking a look at the incredibly small sample size that’s his TriStar autographs, it’s not looking good.

Mier’s worth putting money into, as the potential’s there but the profits might not be. TheBaseballCube currently has his power rating at an 85, which is a bit misleading.  The kid’s a good hitter with plenty of room to develop power, but a lot of his value comes from his advanced fielding skills for a Highschooler.

The key with Mier along with guys like Andrus and Escobar for that matter is paying a price that doesn’t include their defensive hype as well.  He’ll definitely undergo a bump or two, so maybe now’s not the time to invest, but there will be a correct time…

Reymond Fuentes: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP83, Reymond Fuentes of the Boston Red Sox, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: It’s About Value…

Projected Value: High+

Finally, we’ve got some sex appeal in our autograph checklist.  Fuentes is Carlos Beltran’s nephew, or cousin, or something — Only God knows because the internet’s called him about eight different variations of “relative”.

First off Fuentes was drafted by the Red Sox out of Peurto Rico.  The team affiliation is enough to drive the price up, but we’ll have to see where this opens.

Fuentes is young (b. 1991) and fast as fuck (under 6.3 in the 60,) but his frame and already advanced swing that gives hope.  At this point, Fuentes knows how to hit the ball hard from pole to pole.  It’s fair to project at least a slight uptick in power, but for the most part we’re talking a doubles (and triples) machine.

The Red Sox paid him a good amount for the 28th spot and you’ve got to assume that he’s more than just a trade chip.  Obviously, the most important aspect of value is whether or not he plays for the Red Sox — Which, I have to assume he will.

Right now, he’s only weighing in at a buck-sixty, which leaves plenty of room for growth without sacrificing speed.

The Tristar Cards are presenting pretty awesome deals right now, and I’m buying.  Whether or not his stock rises before BDPP (a good chance w/ BB America’s Organizational Lists heading towards the American League Soon)

A.J. Pollock: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP82, A.J. Pollock of the Arizona Diamondbacks, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Sell

Projected Value: Medium

People love Notre Dome and the Golden Domers.  Obviously, baseball doesn’t compete with football, but playing in South Bend never hurts.

To me, Pollock’s pretty much an immediate sell.

The Diamondbacks picked ‘em because he was cheap(ish) and he fit into their financial plans.

Pollock CAN hit, and he’s got a pretty sweet lookin’ swing, but I just don’t see all that much power developing.  Unfortunately, good ball players don’t exactly translate into good baseball cards.  Pollock’s all around a good ball player, but being merely above average at most things doesn’t make you into a superstar.

Playing in Arizona obviously doesn’t help, unless your name is Upton.

I like A.J. Pollock and I’ll follow his career closely, but I wouldn’t invest a dime in him.  He should move well through the minors, and your only chance to make money off the kid is catching him as he skips through levels on a hot-streak.

On a contender, Pollock’s a pretty solid piece and his cards will have value.  If you acquire these cards, your ceiling’s looking like a 10% ROI, unless he develops crazy-awesome power or becomes not just a very good hitter, but an uh-mazing one.

Randal Grichuk: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP81, Randal Grichuk of the Anaheim Angels, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Wait and See (Probably Buying)

Projected Value: High+

Grichuk has something that people that buy cards love: “Power!”

Considering that Grichuk went into the Arizona Fall League as a seventeen year old, the youngest player in the league, he did quite well.

Unfortunately, his power numbers at 17 have begun driving his prices up.

Grichuk should sell well right out of the box, considering his power.

Grichuk’s flaws are noticeable and plentiful, but the groundwork’s definitely been laid for yearly improvement.  In the AFL, Grichuk struck out a tonne and will continue to do so, regardless of the minor changes.  The Angels are simply hoping he’ll curtail his 27% K-Rate and 0.14 BB:K Rate.

Lots of potential here, but the prices will largely determine whether or not Grichuk’s a Buy or Sell. It’s difficult to project exactly how much hype Grichuk will carry with him into the new Bowman DPP, but he’ll almost certainly find himself shooting up Baseball America’s board with refinement.

His frame is currently sporting some speed, but I’d like to see that replaced with opposite field power.  Right now, it seems as though his swing almost necessitates power to the pull field.

There’s definitely bust potential here, so try not to *over* pay.

Matt Bashore: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP80, Matt Bashore of the Minnesota Twins, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Neither, really.

Projected Value: Medium

Coming into the season there was a fairly good shot that Bashore would end up drafted ahead of Arnett — That didn’t happen.  Bashore slide to the 46th overall spot and ended up signing for about 750K.

Bashore’s definitely going to have a hard time building up steam, but there’s still a chance.  If you can swing an unbelievable deal on his cards or just pull one, you’ve gotta keep it.  It’s not going to fetch enough money on the secondary market to warrant selling it unless you’re able to list it incredibly early.

With that in mind, Bashore’s still has size and pitching-hand going for him.  It’s not exactly easy to find big lefthanded starters, so the Twinkies will definitely invest time into the kid.

There’s definitely room to grow, and Bashore appears to have the right mindset but he’s a true prospect.

Bashore definitely leaves you wanting more.  He’s definitely capable of growth, but doesn’t quite have the flash or the polish on the breaking pitches that you’d like to see.

Matt Hobgood: 2009 Bowman Draft Picks and Prospects

BDPP79, Matt Hobgood of the Baltimore Orioles, Bowman Chrome Autograph

Buy or Sell: Sitting on the Fence

Projected Value: High(ish)

Hobgood’s an interesting selection for the autograph checklist. On one hand, the Baltimore Orioles did make him the fifth overall selection in 2009’s draft.  On the other hand, Hobgood could’ve slid further in the draft even if quite a few teams were tantalized by his physical make-up and arsenal.

Hobgood’s got the build to handle his low-to-mid 90’s fastball with ease.  There’s definitely some room for improvement on the heater, but velocity will be secondary to control and improved movement.

Baltimore’s putting together one hell of a staff and there’s always the potential that Hobgood moves to the pen.  Thankfully, he’s shown more than a grip it and rip it approach.

Hobgood’s definitely got the raw-tools to shoot up in the Baseball America Rankings, which would equal pretty solid profits.

He’s gotta keep his curveball tight while he works on developing the change-up, or he’ll get type-cast.

The ceiling’s definitely there for Hobgood assuming he can put together his change-up. If he can post even half decent numbers while getting a feel for all three (or four) of his pitches, Hobgood could be a wise investment.

Just remember, in addition to Hobgood’s skillset, his signability drastically effected his draft-stock.  If Hobgood starts fetching 5th overall selection money on cards, I’d stay away.

I get the feeling that Topps (Bowman) also added Hobgood to the checklist due to signability issues.

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