As a Jake Peavy Owner — honestly, it wasn’t by choice, it just happened — I have a vested interest in his return to health. As recently as last Wednesday, Peavy looked on track for his late-April return. He breezed through 72 pitches at AAA-Charlotte to get through 6 innings and looked good. Peavy had two more rehab starts planned to get his pitch-count up to 100 and then he was off to the South Side.

Alas, one of those two planned starts was tonight, and Peavy left early. He didn’t just leave early, he left early with discomfort. Peavy was at AA-Birmingham and left after just two-thirds of an inning with discomfort. Peavy was getting roughed up pretty bad prior to his exit; he gave up three earned runs on four hits after just 15 pitches.

Ozzie Guillen obviously offered the most insightful take:

[More] bad news for the White Sox. It’s something I worry about because he’s my player and that’s a setback for him. Hopefully tomorrow we have better news. I think he’s going to see the doctor. In my mind, I know it was going to happen. If it happens in July, [it's worse]. Of course, we want him here but we have to wait and be patient with him.

Well, the end of May now looks like a solid target. It’s pretty painful because I’m not even sure about Peavy’s upside this year. You also gotta figure that you wont be starting Peavy until he gets a couple starts under his belt. He probably won’t be *useful* until June.

Updates to follow, I’d imagine.

Big League Stew did some actual reporting and found out that Wilson’s developed a brand new pitch. Of course, I was intrigued and scurried over to fangraphs.com. Well, MLB advanced media doesn’t see anything to write home about: Wilson’s a fastball/slider pitcher. But, Wilson is working his fastball a bit more than last year. According to Big League Stew via SFGate.com, Wilson developed a brand-spanking new two-seamer:

It was a two-seam, sinking fastball that Wilson just added to a menu that largely consists of a straight, four-seam fastball, cutter and slider. If he can use it effectively, hitters will be in for even tougher at-bats against last year’s major-league saves leader.

“The cat’s out of the bag. It’s another weapon,” pitching coach Dave Righetti said, calling Wilson’s two-seamer a “big-time” development.

Well, here’s the thing, it really doesn’t sink that much, but it adds a lot of horizontal movement:

2010 Pitches Faded & 2011 Bright // vertical x horizontal movement

Wilson is getting noticeably more horizontal movement on some of those fastballs, but it doesn’t look like he’s adding a tonne of vertical movement on the pitches. It’s tough to tell with just a handful of dots, but we’ll keep looking.

Wilson Vertical Movement x Speed

You can see the vertical movement a bit better here, especially when you consider the speed. It looks like the pitches are moving more towards the 0 point on vertical axis, but there was a handful of games where that occurred last year too. I looked at the last couple of games of 2010 to see if he’d picked this pitch up at the tail end of last year, but didn’t notice anything out of the ordinary.

The horizontal movement is where Wilson’s two-seamer excels though:

Horizontal x Speed

You can see a handful of Wilson’s 2011 pitches getting some serious horizontal movement. I’d argue that this is probably better for fantasy purposes. It gives him a wide range of fastballs to get both the lefties and the righties out. He can cut his fastball to the lefties and absolutely fire it by righties with a whole lotta tail. He’s lost a couple miles an hour off last year, but I’d imagine he’d gain that back as he continues to get healthy.

I absolutely love pitchers that can move their fastball at will. I really don’t think this changes Wilson’s value all that much. He’s still got a wipe-out arsenal, even if there’s something in my gut that says he’ll get more ground-balls if he starts using the two-seamer to induce weak contact rather than attacking batters.

Here’s a quickie for those of you that read this regularly or have the RSS feed.

Jerry Sands has been called up tonight. This doesn’t look great for James Loney (who’s been struggling mightily) or Xavier Paul who was optioned.

Sands looks like he could hit 30HR in his sleep. He’s one of those guys big ol’ country boys from North Carolina. I don’t know if NC is a big producer of country boys, but whatever.

Anyways, I will not make a prediction on Sands, but he’s big and powerful, with a bit of a goofy swing. He’s definitely worth the risk in NL-only leagues and maybe even deep mixed.

Sands will be in the line-up tonight and hitting 7th. He absolutely tore it up in ABQ this year.

Sickels nailed his prospect of the day today.

A year ago, Jerry Sands was a fairly anonymous prospect,  a former 25^thround pick just making his way through A-ball.  All of that changed with an excellent 2010 season that saw him hit 35 homers between Low-A and Double-A, culminating with a strong ’11 spring training and a terrific start this year for Triple-A Albuquerque (.400/.422/.875 with five homers in 10 games). A college star for Division II Catawba, Sands didn’t have the kind of athletic tools that interest scouts and earned just a $5,000 bonus entering pro ball in 2008.

He broke out with a .333/.432/.646 mark in the first half for Low-A Great Lakes in ’10, then continued hitting for power after moving up to Chattanooga with a .270/.360/.529 mark, hitting 28 doubles and 35 homers overall. Refinements to his swing give him power to all fields, and he has enough bat control and plate discipline to hit for a decent average and draw some walks. He’s not especially fast but can pick up a steal if the defense ignores him. Though  he may fit best at first base in the long run, he’s not terrible in the outfield and can certainly hit enough to stick at a corner. He’s also seen a few innings at third base. His makeup and work ethic are highly-praised.

Sands is ready for the majors now and is the obvious choice to promote when the Dodgers need an outfielder. He rated as a Grade B prospect pre-season, ranked Number 39 on the Top 50 hitters list in the 2011 Baseball Prospect Book.

 

Five earned runs, courtesy of three long-balls, meant that Alexi Ogando didn’t exactly receive a warm welcome to New York. The Bronx Bombers unleashed a hellish fury on Ogando even without Alex Rodriguez in the line-up. Ogando finished the game after 6.1IP; allowing 5ER on 6H, 1BB, and 3HR. All and all, it wasn’t too bad.

The post-game story nailed it though:

NEW YORK — The key to Alexi Ogando’s success before Sunday was an ability to throw his fastball anywhere from 94 to 97 and mix in a slider with tons of movement and varying speeds. That left hitters struggling to catch up with the fastball and shaking their heads at the slider.

But under the bright lights at Yankee Stadium on Sunday, Ogando’s slider wasn’t moving the way he wanted.

“It just wasn’t good tonight,” catcher Yorvit Torrealba said.

The slider wasn’t great and New York batters were able to sit on his big-time heat. Ogando touched 97mph in New York and averaged about 95mph on the heater. Despite the predictability, it’s still one hell of a pitch. Ogando started out really bringing it, but slowly and steadily declined to about 93mph by the time he was pulled in the sixth.

Alas, it was all about the slider and I absolutely love when the players sentiments echo that of the MACHINE! Ogando’s slider had managed to get about 4 inches past 0 on the horizontal axis and about 1-inch above the vertical axis thus far in 2011. His fastball comes in at -3 and 9, so the separation is huge when you toss in a 15mph speed difference as well.

Tonight though, Ogando’s numbers weren’t nearly as pretty:

This really isn’t all that bad of a pfx chart, it’s actually remarkably solid despite his lack of a change-up, but it confirms Yorvit’s suspicions.

Just remember that New York’s a really good team and Ogando’s loss of velocity is probably to be expected early in his RP->SP transition. In his first start versus the Mariners, Ogando maintained velocity right until the bitter end: he hit 96mph on his 86th pitch before being yanked at the end of the 6th. In his next start, he started dropping velocity by about the 4th or 5th inning, though. This makes a couple of starts in a row where Ogando’s lost velocity fairly early in the ball-game, but he’s more than capable of working in the 92-93mph range.

Ogando’s got all the potential in the world, but he’ll eventually need to improve that change-up of his and work on his stamina. I’m sure there are quite a few pitchers out there that’ll take a 6-hit performance against the Yankees even if three of them were long-balls.

Desmond Jennings probably figured he’d secure himself an opening day gig in Tampa this year, at least until he realized that he played for the Tampa Bay Delay-Free Agencies. Even with Johnny Damon’s injury appearing to be quite minor, Jennings should get the call sooner rather than later. Down on the farm, Jennings homered yesterday and has extended his hitting streak to eight games. Jennings is now hitting .345 with an OPS north of 1.000. Jennings is claiming that his achy shoulder is now fully healed and last year is behind him.

Lonnie Chisenhall was invited to spring training this year where he went 13-for-26 with a couple of bombs. However, so far in AAA, Chisenhall has started slowly. He’s got a slash line of .211/.311/.421 with a homer and 7 strikeouts. You can probably expect the Indians to treat Chisenhall the same way they treated Carlos Santana last year. By waiting until June — Santana got the call on June 11th — they’ll delay his tick-tock-clock and get four years of arbitration rather than three.

Kipnis is down on the farm as well, but with the way the Indians middle-infield is raking, it wouldn’t surprise me to see him down there until September.

Everyone in the Yankees organization is hurt: Gary Sanchez, Dellin Betances, and Manny Banuelos are all dinged up and placed on the DL. Jesus Montero is absolutely raking, but until they find a spot for him or *really, really, really* need pitching and trade him, he’ll probably continue dominating in Triple-A rather than the show.

Brett Lawrie is killing it in Vegas: .442/.500/.674. Vegas is one of the best hitters parks in the best hitters leagues out there, but Lawrie’s legit. Jason Nix has third to himself while Edwin Encarnacion’s on bereavement leave. Lots of talk up in Toronto about Lawrie and if the Jays plan on playing Lawrie from start to finish next year, they don’t harm themselves financially by calling up Lawrie in the next month.

I’ll be the absolute first to say that something about Adrian Cardenas is just off. The once hyped prospect has fallen off the map, but everything about him screams late-bloomer. In 8 AAA games, Cardenas is hitting .448/.500/.586 and doing pretty a’ight. I’m not touting the guy, but…. something about his path to the big leagues (Pennington, Ellis, and Andy LaRoche) makes for an interesting gamble.

I don’t know what got into the Mets last year. They promoted Jenrry Mejia, and Ruben Tejada way too early. Now, they’re going for Dillon Gee instead of players like Matt Harvey and Jenrry Mejia. Gee’s a bit of control junkie, but in AAA last year, he flashed unusual K-rates. He struck out 9.2-per-9, but only 4ish in his 33IP for the Mets. Definitely a deep league, NL-ONLY, type gamble.

And then there’s Kyle Gibson and Mark Rogers. The Brewers may give Mark Rogers a go, but his upside is limited. Kyle Gibson is definitely the Francisco Liriano fall-back plan.  In two AAA-Rochester starts, Gibson‘s posted an ERA above 5, but his BABIP has been through the roof. He’s still striking out batters and is getting pretty close to major-league ready.

Jordan Lyles is still just 20, but seems comfortable enough in AAA. The Astros put together some decent players and if Myers gets traded to the Yanks or Sox, they could get some time. No reason to rush any of their arms, though.

Matt Dominguez can rake, but will be on the shelf for a bit.  Less than thought, tough: “Marlins owner Jeffrey Loria said Saturday that most recent tests suggest that Marlins third base prospect Matt Dominguez will miss only 4-6 weeks.”

Oakland needs power, Oakland always needs power. Chris Carter is busy being Chris Carter at AAA: .167/.354/.306. He hasn’t quite showcased his pop, but he’s legit.

Ackley’s gotten off to a bit of a slow start at AAA, but it’s only a matter of time.

Devin Mesoraco continues to rake: 3HR 1.192 OPS

Yonder Alonso not so much, but he’ll see time eventually. He’s got a .443 OPS so far in AAA.

Mike Moustakas has gotten out to a slow start at AAA-Omaha. .522 OPS.

#FREEDEEGORDON! 5SB at AAA-ABQ.

Toronto Blue Jays (Romero) vs. Boston Red Sox (Dice-K) (-130)

While it looks like the Red Sox are starting to come around, especially after handing it to the Blue Jays for a couple games in a row, Dice-K worries me.

Tentatively take the Blue Jays.

Chicago White Sox (Jackson) vs. Tampa Bay Rays (David Price)

Edwin Jackson has been a beast recently, but so have the Rays. They’ll be without Damon, and the White Sox are in the top-half of the league with regards to OPS against lefties.

It’ll depend on the line, but the White Sox.

Milwaukee Brewers (Marcum) vs. Philadelphia Phillies (Blanton)

Marcum’s been out-pitching his FIP and xFIP, but Blanton’s not as bad as his 10+ ERA would indicate. Marcum should win this matchup, but there’s a great shot that the smart money will be on Blanton.

Minnesota Twins (Liriano) vs. Baltimore Orioles (Tillman)

Liriano’s been iffy and has seen his fastball velocity drop 2-full miles per hour and he’s walking almost everyone. The Twinkies are in rough shape, and Tillman’s got a great 1-2 punch. If you can get a huge line on the Orioles, go for it, but Liriano should be able to take care of the O’s.

Pittsburgh Pirates (Kevin Correia) vs. Cincinnati Reds (Travis Wood)

Travis Wood has looked great early. I think anywhere between -155 and -175/-180 is fine.

San Diego Padres (Tim Stauffer) vs. Chicago Cubs (Carlos Zambrano)

One of my favorite lines. Stauffer’s started out rough, but should be able to put things together against the Cubs.

Los Angeles Angels (Ervin Santana) vs. Texas Rangers (C.J. Wilson)

Angels play pretty well against lefties, and Santana always has the potential to dominate. Without Hamilton, the Rangers line-up is still scary, but not as scary.

Cleveland Indians (Carlos Carrasco) vs. Kansas City Royals (Kyle Davies)

In a perfect world, I’d avoid this, but I really have a chub for Carlos Carrasco. Grady Sizemore’s back and the Indians look good. Carrasco’s got one hell of a change-up.

San Francisco Giants (Tim Lincecum) vs. Colorado Rockies (Esmil Rogers)

Rockies are on a roll and Rogers looks good, but at -130, it’s hard to not bet on Lincecum. In 2011, he looks damn near unhittable.

Atlanta Braves (Tim Hudson) vs. Los Angeles Dodgers (Ted Lilly)

It’s not like Lilly’s been great, but the Atlanta Braves should get him back on track. Lilly gets a +120 here, and it’s a nice little gamble.

Detroit Tigers (Max Scherzer) vs. Seattle Mariners (Jason Vargas)

I honestly don’t know how Vargas does it. The Mariners will have a hard time scoring runs against the Tigers, unless there’s one of those bullpen collapses.

Fantasy Baseball List of Lists

If there’s one thing they teach you in internet journalism school, it’s that smoking and drinking scotch next to your laptop doesn’t look nearly as cool as it does along side a notepad or even a type-writer. Basically, Internet Journalism school — if it exists, I mean it must, right? — prepares you to look like a try-hard for the rest of your life.

Anyways, the other thing you learn in internet journalism school is that people absolutely love lists. They don’t like articles. Articles take too long to read. Lists can be digested in 20 seconds. Alas, here’s my list of fantasy baseball lists:

1. TOP BABIP — Hitter –UNDER
2. TOP BABIP — HITTER — OVER
3. TOP BABIP — Pitcher — Regression Candidates
4. TOP STREAMING PLAYS – Who’s Playing The Bad Teams
5. TOP E-F or ERA minus FIP for PITCHERS
6. TOP POTENTIAL! PLAYS
7. TOP POSITION ELIGIBILITY NOTES
8. TOP INJURY CONCERNS!
9. TOP FASTBALL VELOCITY!
10. TOP PROSPECT PLAYS!

There are definitely more, but I’ll stop there and mix and match for a bit. I tried to refrain from HOT vs. NOT type stuff. Depending on how long this takes me to churn out on this lazy Sunday, I might try and do this on a weekly basis (I totally won’t — I’m banking on getting to about item five before quitting).

Top BABIP Under-Achievers

Top BABIP OVER-Achievers

Top BABIP Winners and Losers

Top Streaming Plays

For the next week….

Twins: Baltimore & Cleveland

Pirates: Reds, Fish, Nationals

Padres: Cubs, Phillies

Mariners: Detroit, Oakland

Orioles: Twinkies and Yankees

Nationals: Cards and Pittsburgh

ERA – FIP

Potential Plays!

Bud Norris, Ryan Dempster, Edison Volquez, Brandon Beachy all look good, despite miserable ERAs. Derek Holland and Daniel Hudson look damn good. Jake Arrieta brings the heat and should get to face a lack-luster offense. Oh, and that Chatwood kid.

Position Eligibility!

Daniel Murphy of the Mets just got second base and MI eligibility

Andy LaRoche is well on his way to a boatload of eligibility, but recently nabbed MI.

Willie Bloomquist does it all and just added LF eligibility.

San Diego’s Cory Luebke just got RP eligibility which could be useful down the road.

Mike Aviles finally got CI eligibility.

Arizona’s Ryan Roberts just secured 3rd Base eligibility. He’s interesting.

Tampa’s Sean Rodriguez got 3B eligibility and now can do the 2nd, 3rd, OF thingy.

Oh, and Carlos Silva returned to existence, inking a contract with the Yanks.

Injury Concerns

Aroldis Chapman’s lost velocity

Zito Injured himself attempting to catch a bunt.

Rich Harden tweaked something and his timetable is now delayed.

Joe Mauer’s achy and seeing a doctor. Legs are tingly. Back is sore.

Torres is still nursing his Achilles, but Cody Ross is progressing well.

Hamilton’s hurt, and finally apologized for his remarks.

J.J. Hardy’s oblique injury could keep him out six weeks.

Corey Hart’s started his rehab assignment.

Ryan Zimmerman strained his abdomen a couple days ago.

Grady Sizemore EXPLODED in his first game back. Doubles and Homers all that other good stuff.

Dom Brown’s hitting off a tee now.

Jason Bay won’t be back before April 26th.

Raffy Furcal’s dinged up. #FreeDeeGordon

Franky Morales twisted his right ankle. Seems okay.

Justin Morneau (ill), Nyjer Morgan, Brandon Phillips, Skip Schumaker, Ryan Sweeney, Allen Craig,  and Scott Downs are all doubtful for today (17th)

Dallas Braden’s doubtful for his next start. Kuroda is questionable for his start. As is Roy Oswalt.

Alex Rodriguez is banged up.

Jaime Garcia’s probably for his next start.

Top Fastball Velocities

Top Prospect Plays!

Dillon Gee got the call for the Mets.
Collin Balester got the call for the Nats
Josh Collmenter is now a Diamondback.
Darren Ford is up w/ Torres problems.
Michael Kirkman got called up because Colby Lewis had to witness a baby being birthed.
Al Alburquerque is up with the Tigers and can huck it.
Blake Wood was called up to fill Robinson Tejada’s spot (DL).
Brad Bergesen is 25 and seems healthy. Looks a’ight.
24-year old Hector Noesi is up with the Yankees in a middle relief role.
25-year old Fernando Salas is up with the Cards.
Eduardo Sanchez is three years younger than Salas with a good MiLB K-Rate. Keep an eye-out!
Chris Davis Sighting! He’s still just 25 years old.
Dodgers called up Ivan DeJesus Jr. #freeDeeGordon
They also called up John Ely
…and….
Flame-thrower Tyler Chatwood was called up to fill the Kazmir Void

Pedro Alvarez is going to have a long-leash in 2011, he’s the future of the franchise along with Andrew McCutchen after all. Both Alvarez and ‘Cutch are struggling mightily in 2011, though. Somehow — Jose Tabata, Lyle Overbay & Neil Walker — the Pittsburgh Pirates have managed to post a 6-and-8 record despite their young stars’ early struggles.

McCutchen (.204/.328/.367) has hit a couple of long-balls, but stole his first base of the season last night. McCutchen is bound to turn it around, but Alvarez’s statistics are far more worrisome: Alvarez has a K-Rate of 34% (same as last year) and an 8.6 BB% (same as last year) but has seen his BABIP regress from .341 to .314 and his average drop from .256 to .208. Furthermore and probably most concerning, Alvarez has seen his isolated power to .038. Despite posting positive numbers against fastballs, sliders and change-ups in 2010, Alvarez has been eaten by these pitches in 2011 and has yet to hit a single long-ball.

Based on these numbers, owners in serious fantasy leagues will have some serious questions about Alvarez. There’s a very real possibility that a BABIP under .325 will result in a Reynolds-esque batting average and absolutely crush your fantasy squad. A batting average of .256 is palatable; .220, not so much.

The only question is just how long you’ll have to wait to acquire Alvarez at a price that works for both parties. The home-runs will certainly return, but just how long can owners stomach a .526 OPS? We’re dealing with a rather small sample size, but all of worries about Alvarez are coming true and if our worries are coming true, then other owner’s worries are coming true as well.

Yet, Alvarez is essentially the same player as last year. His plate discipline statistics have remained relatively static with small improvements in some categories. He’s hitting more line-drives. When owners drafted Alvarez, they expected a large amount of growth in his second year, but at the very least they expected him to adapt at a rate equal to that at which pitchers adapted to him. Pitchers have certainly adapted to Alvarez by throwing him 10% less fastballs and more sliders and change-ups yet Alvarez has failed to re-adapt.

It reminds me of fantasy baseball before the introduction of advanced statistics. You gotta trust your gut. You either think Alvarez will improve or you don’t, the statistics really don’t help you decide one way or another. I don’t have Alvarez in a single league, but I’m going to start floating some trade proposals in the near future. I wouldn’t be even the slightest bit surprised if Alvarez carries a very low average for at least another month and that’ll be when the offers get serious. The way Alvarez is playing currently, it’ll be a while before he puts everything together but I have faith in him. It’s a risk, but you obviously want to buy at the lowest point, so I’d let Alvarez owners suffer for another month before pulling the trigger.

We’re just about reaching that point in the fantasy season when you can prey on the insecurities of other owners. Nowhere near enough statistical information has been accumulated, but owners have seen about three starts and are beginning to get frustrated with their sleepers.

Daniel Hudson finished up 2010 with an ERA below 2.00 over the final two months of the season after posting an ERA north of six during his last month with the South-Siders. Hudson entered 2011 as a sleeper that wasn’t really a sleeper and often went for double digits on draft-draft but owners that selected Hudson knew there was some risk associated with him.

In 2011, Hudson’s been on fire but has taken the loss in each of his three starts and has posted an incredibly mediocre ERA of 4.26. Hudson’s value has been further deflated by his lack of dominance. Owners seem to rationalize increased value when a pitcher throws at least one utterly dominant game followed by an atrocious outing, but Hudson’s been mediocre across all three starts: 6IP/3ER, 7IP/2ER, 6IP/5ER against the Rockies, Reds and Giants, respectively.

These numbers fail to account for Hudson’s strike-out numbers, though. Hudson’s been fanning ‘em like one of those smokin’ hotties in a doomed-to-fail epic about Alexander entering Babylon. I tried to find a movie capture of Colin Farrell in Alexander, but was greeted by Rosario Dawson’s terrific cans or super close-ups of Farrell’s nut sack. Alas, we shall go pictureless, but I’m considering my picture hunt a draw.

Hudson’s striking out 10.89 batters-per-9 while walking about 3.79 batters-per-9. The later is concerning, but Hudson should, realistically, be around 3ish for the rest of the season. Hudson’s increased strike-out and walk rates may be legit, though: Hudson’s increased his fastball velocity a full mile-per-hour from last year to 93.6mph. His slider’s followed suit, while his change-up has remained relatively static at 82.5mph.

Hudson’s 4.26 ERA probably has more to do with his 60% LOB Rate and .311 BABIP than it does his true skill level. Hudson’s FIP (2.59) and xFIP (3.01) are both well worth the $10 you or another owner spent on draft day, but his ERA and 0-and-3 record hardly reflect that.

In my books, Hudson’s actually improved his standing since draft day. If you can acquire him for anywhere around Draft Day price, he makes a great addition. Hudson’s got a great three-pitch arsenal (all are currently positive on Fangraphs’ linear weights,) he’s increased his velocity, and he’s delivers the ball in a difficult to pick up, cross-fire, manner. Long term, I don’t know how that bodes for his health but in the short-term, it’ll help him get guys out and keep his SwStr% lookin’ real good.

Hudson’s owners probably aren’t morons, but he should be devalued enough at this point to grab him at a reasonable price.

Pounce!

Is This The Year For…Bud Norris?

Bud’s got a big fastball, and with a big fastball comes high expectations. Bud’s always been able to top 95mph with ease and has averaged nearly 94mph on his fastball the previous two years. In 2011, it appears as though Norris has taken something off the pitch or is just getting warmed up. With the big fastball though, there’s a need to control it and this is where Bud’s faltered. In his big-league seasons prior to 2011, Norris has walked over 4-batters-9 but has always remained on fantasy radars because he’s had a 2.00+ K/BB to go with that number.

In 2011, Norris has chopped the walk rate down to 3.5ish in 16 IP. It’s a small sample and just one additional walk would put him right back above 4-per-9, but the other numbers support a break-through as well.

Norris has basically faced a good team, a bad team, and a mediocre team in the Phils, Padres and Fish, respectively. In these three starts, he’s accumulated a 5.06 ERA. Despite the high-ERA, things look good for Norris:  He’s only allowed 2 line-drives (4%,) He’s struck out 20 (11.25-per-9), He’s getting more swings (up a couple percent) but less contact (down a couple percent) and in turn has posted almost a 2% increase in SwStr%.

His slider has been absolutely filthy. It’s coming in slower, but it’s getting some extra movement. Most importantly, he’s missing bats with it and hitters are also taking it for called-strikes inside of the zone. On the slider, Norris has actually accumulated a 5.2 wSL/C.

His last outing was against the Padres, so I wouldn’t get too stoked, but the schedule isn’t too bad. Aside from @CIN and @MIL, Norris should be serviceable. If you’re a gambling man, Norris definitely has the stuff to get out top-ranked hitters, but I’d probably stick to playing him against the Mets, Cards and Pirates of the world.

Again, don’t be too put off by Norris’ BABIP of .263; Dude has allowed 2 line-drives. There’s a lot of upside here, but I can guarantee you that there’ll be at least a couple 6 or 7 ER performances. Pitchers like Norris are worth rolling the dice on. If you rolled the dice on Brandon Morrow last year, you were rewarded with 178Ks in 146IP and Norris has the potential to put up similar numbers.

Oh, and he’s got a 3.00 xFIP thanks to a 16.7% HR/FB-Rate thus far.