When Trevor Cahill took the mound yesterday, neither he nor Bob Geren figured he’d throw 105 pitches and not get out of the 5th inning. Cahill, despite posting an ERA that drives xFIP/FIP guys crazy, was still a very solid pitcher. He probably wasn’t worthy of the 2.97 ERA that he put up or the 18 wins, but he was just a 22-year old.
Cahill, now 23, was handed the ball for the opener and the Athletics supported him by committing five errors. Ouch. Cahill piled up the K’s last night, though. He struck out 8 batters in 4.2 Innings but also walked four — For a Sinker/Slider pitcher, his change-up looked great. Fangraphs PFX seems off to me but according to Brooks, Cahill’s pitches performed as expected.
As you’d expect, the problem was stamina. Somewhere in the sixty-to-seventy pitch range, Cahill’s velocity dropped and didn’t recover. I don’t think I’d recommend trotting your opening day starter out there for 100+ pitches unless you’re certain he can handle it. Yes, that even applies to 108 pitch-count Felix Hernandez and his complete game. Cahill’s got a thick body and has been relatively injury free, but Geren should’ve given him the hook earlier.
With that said, if you’ve got any faith in Cahill, you’ll probably want to acquire him after his next handful of starts. Cahill went downhill quickly against the Mariners — THE MARINERS — and things are going to get a lot worse before they get better. I think a couple more shitty outings for Cahill will confirm the doubters beliefs and you’ll be able to nab him on the cheap. At that point, he should have built his stamina up to a respectable level and provide you with some solid 6K/9, 3.50 ERA, decent WHIP baseball. A lot of people point to Cahill being overvalued heading into the 2011 fantasy season, but he was only overvalued to the experts that wanted to write about him being overvalued. It seems like the majority of the fantasy baseball community realized that Cahill’s wins and ERA were a fluke and drafted accordingly.
I think that Cahill eventually develops into a solid strike-out pitcher as he learns to pitch. His MiLB track-record shows a kid with K-potential, but he’s yet to flash it in the big leagues without also walking bushels of batters. It’s a matter of approach rather than stuff. If Suzuki and Geren want a heavy fastball 75% of the time, that’s what they’ll get. If there’s a reason or desire to get Cahill striking out more batters, that’s what they’ll get.
