1. Can Kyle Drabek routinely hit 95mph with the heat?
Yup, Drabek’s straight heat came in at 94-95 at least a handful of times. This, now that I’ve watched Drabek in 2011, just doesn’t matter. I’m okay with the kid operating in the 90-92 range rather than 93-95 range.
Scope this out:
That’s Drabek in 2010. His heater was relatively straight and his two-seamer was really hit or miss when it came to *sink* but it always had a whole lotta horizontal movement. His cutter looked great, his slider was a bit all-over-the-place and his 12-6 curve had pretty decent depth.
In his first start of 2011, though, Sweet Baby Jesus, Hallelujah. This could just be the Rogers Centre PFX system, but I’m going to assume it’s Drabek until proven otherwise.
| Pitch Type | Avg Speed | Max Speed | Avg H-Break | Avg V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swinging Strikes / % | Linear Weights | Time to Plate |
| FF (FourSeam Fastball) | 92.17 | 94.3 | -2.55 | 4.80 | 12 | 5 / 41.67% | 0 / 0.00% | 0.0943 | 0.402 |
| CU (Curveball) | 84.25 | 92.1 | -3.96 | -2.93 | 20 | 10 / 50.00% | 2 / 10.00% | -0.9896 | 0.439 |
| FC (Cutter) | 90.64 | 92 | 1.41 | 1.72 | 14 | 9 / 64.29% | 1 / 7.14% | -1.3510 | 0.406 |
| FT (TwoSeam Fastball) | 92.43 | 94.7 | -5.05 | 1.76 | 54 | 29 / 53.70% | 5 / 9.26% | -2.2050 | 0.401 |
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This isn’t just a small change from last year, this is an absolutely massive change. Drabek’s entire fastball arsenal (four, two, cut) have more sink to ‘em.
Here’s Drabek’s most recent start (outlined) contrasted against last year’s start against the Orioles (small green dots)
2. Can Kyle Drabek work his solid and possibly improved change against lefties?
I think Drabek threw a handful of change-ups, so I’m still waiting on this. I’m glad that he used his cutter to effectively against lefties, but I’m still waiting on the change. He didn’t surrender a hit to Mauer, Morneau or Thome, but walked both Mauer and Morneau once. The only hit that Drabek (and the blue jays for that matter) gave up was to Denard Span.
3. How often will Drabek rely on his Slider/Curve as his swing-and-miss pitch?
He did great job, but he really went for the grounder this outing despite compiling seven strike-outs. He’s definitely got swing and miss pitches, but he’ll get deep into games if he keeps relying on this two-seamer and cutter of his…
