In 2011, shortstop is a bit of a mess after the first handful of players. Thus, plenty of stuff to write about, make assumptions about and theorize on.
So Starlin Castro, Cubs Saviour, versus Alcides Escobar, Mister Limp Stick.
Starlin Castro, ESPN ADP: 161, 2010 Stats: 53R, 3HR, 41 RBI, 10SB, .300 AVG
Castro posted a .300 batting average on the strength of a .346 BABIP, but that seems like a fairly reasonable BABIP for a player of his skill-set.
A lot of Castro’s value will come from his spot in the batting order. With the Cubs lacking speed, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Castro continue to bat in the two-hole (296/463AB last year) or even spend a considerable amount of time atop the order despite having one of the worst OBP on the club. If I had to bet, I guess I’d say Fukudome will lead off and Castro will hit second. That’ll push Soto all the way down to 7th, though (Fukudome, Castro, Byrd, Ramirez, Pena, Soriano, Soto, DeWitt and P).
If Castro spends the entire season in the two-hole, the Fangraphs FANS projection should be pretty close to reality 77/6/73/19SB/.295 with the possibility of at least 85-runs. I like the looks of Chicago’s offense a bit more than others, I think.
Alcides Escobar, ESPN ADP: 202, 2010 Stats: 57R, 4HR, 41RBI, 10SB, .256 AVG
Escobar had a rather terrible season last year for the Milwaukee Brewers but now finds himself in Kansas City after being part of the Zack Greinke deal.
Almost all of Escobar’s value will come from his speed and the Brewers weren’t exactly known for lighting up the basepaths. The Royals on the other hand, under former Brewers Manager, Ned Yost, will run and almost have to run. Escobar put up 76 Steals in AA and AAA in 2008 and 2009, respectively. In 2010 though, he didn’t get on base (0.288 OBP — OUCH,) and didn’t run (10SB).
Much like the Brewers, the Royals really don’t have all that much speed (Melky Cabrera?) and Escobar could realistically lead off, even with an awful OBP.
Escobar’s pathetic BABIP of .264 in 2010 absolutely has to improve and the projection models make note of that: Fans (60R/4HR/61RBI/24SB/.272AVG), Marcel (57R/6HR/42RBI/10SB/.256) and BillJ(76R/5HR/51RBI/21SB/.285).
Personally, I think if Escobar’s able to get on base at a .330 clip (BJ) or even a Fan Predicted .321 rate, he’ll steal 30 bases. I think the kid will be running on every occasion.
It’s just unbelievable to me that Escobar could hit 21.5% line drives, but achieve such poor results. It’s bad news when you have issues with fastballs and change-ups in addition to the breaking stuff but Escobar makes better than average contact and should see quite a few hittable pitches considering the remainder of the Royals line-up.
Verdict: Castro, but barely. Eh, Screw it. I’ll go out on a limb and hype Escobar as much as I can. Escobar WINS!
I really think that Escobar’s upside on the basepaths should negate at least 10-15 R and 10RBI. 40 SB for Escobar isn’t out of the question in Kansas City. I think both of these gentlemen should be steals based on their ADPs, though.
